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This market really kills people in the short term. Even after dropping to this level, Ethereum's funding rate is still so high. It seems that many people share the same view, and the bullish sentiment is too strong. Ethereum's liquidity for the whole month has been wiped out. Let's see if the daily chart can close above 2630.It's quite interesting to look at these two small news items together today.
First, the Winklevoss brothers have submitted an application to the SEC for a spot Zcash ETF, intending to list it on Nasdaq under the ticker WINK.
Zcash is a privacy coin. In recent years, privacy coins have basically been treated like pariahs in mainstream finance, with exchanges delisting them and regulators targeting them. Now someone wants to create a spot ETF for it and list it on Nasdaq.
Second, on-chain analysts have detected that a U.S. government address transferred out 833.6 BTC and 40,300 BNB, worth $103 million, with the BTC going into Coinbase Prime. The government still holds about $28 billion worth of crypto assets.
Putting these two together: on one hand, Wall Street is packaging privacy coins for compliance, while on the other, the government is offloading assets.
This is the most surreal aspect of our industry. One moment we're discussing whether regulation will kill crypto, the next we find out the government itself is one of the largest holders and is quietly selling.
As for that ETF, my view is not to get excited yet. Out of ten ETF applications, one approval is already good, and with Zcash's privacy features, the SEC hurdle is even higher. If you want to bet, wait until it's approved; a few days won't make a difference.
BTC is at 83,637 today, down 2.28%. It's a macro issue, unrelated to these two news items.
$BTC 标普500涨到7,818.93创出阶段新高，同一天BTC却跌了1.79%到84,184.9美元。过去几个月"美股涨、BTC跟涨"的规律，这次没生效——为什么？ 先看三个数字。第一，价格分歧：BTC现报84,184.9美元，24小时跌1.79%，近一周几乎持平（+0.06%），20日区间76,258.2到87,399；第二，美股强势：标普500报7,818.93，日内涨0.58%，创阶段新高；第三，宏观与情绪：美元指数102.00（+0.17%）重新走强，黄金现货4,146.6美元（COMEX 4,175.3，+0.45%），恐惧贪婪指数从73回落到71。 为什么这次没跟上？关键在于**上涨的驱动不同**。美股这波新高主要由企业盈利和科技板块驱动，属于"分子端"改善；而BTC的定价更依赖"分母端"——流动性、风险预算和资金通道。当美股涨是因为业绩、而美元同时走强时，BTC反而会承压：美元走强意味着全球风险预算收紧，而BTC作为高Beta资产，对预算的敏感度高于对盈利的敏感度。 更直接的证据是ETF通道：美国现货ETF最近5个交易日净流入约3.728亿美元，最新单日（10月2日）+3.01The two most resilient altcoins, $ZEC and $UNI, have both broken their daily-level uptrend lines.
ZEC has fallen from a high of 1699 down to around 1360, a drop of nearly 20%. After a 15x increase, this level of correction is actually not a big deal; the moving average system is still in a bullish arrangement, and the mid-term structure remains intact. However, the Bollinger Bands have compressed to the extreme, with the amplitude of 30 candles less than 5%, which is a sign of an impending breakout. It could go either up or down, but short-term momentum is definitely cooling off.
UNI is struggling around 8.3, with sell orders continuously suppressing buy orders. More interestingly, the chip structure shows that large holders have a net long position of 67.2% in the futures market, betting on a rise, but the active sell order volume exceeds buy orders by 37%. Smart money is bullish, but active selling is pressing down; both sides are opposing each other. The MACD histogram has already returned to zero, and the direction is completely lost.
Two quality altcoins have broken down early; can other altcoins be far behind?
BTC is consolidating around 85250, with multiple attempts to break 88000 being pushed back, indicating real supply above. ETH is hovering around 2700, with ETFs seeing net outflows for five consecutive days, totaling over 200 million. If BTC breaks below 84000, ETH will definitely follow, and altcoin declines may accelerate directly.
The leader hasn't broken down yet, but altcoins are weakening first; this is a typical signal of capital retreat. Control your position size and wait for the signal to complete before making moves. #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 🔥 On the eve of the FOMC, what BTC fears most is not sideways movement, but the market suddenly reversing after everyone has settled on a direction.
📍 $BTC is currently struggling around 85,000, with 86,500 failing to break through three times in a row. Bulls have yet to show enough strong breakout momentum.
💰 According to original data, ETF net outflows nearly reached $90 million in a single day, and whales reduced about 30,000 BTC in a week, worth over $2.5 billion. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, with the 10-year at 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.67%, which may make investors more cautious about high-volatility assets.
⚠️ The Fear & Greed Index is at 74, indicating a greedy sentiment, but this does not mean the market is about to top out immediately. What really matters is whether the price can hold the structure, not just betting based on a sentiment indicator.
🎯 Remember three key levels: 86,500 is the upper breakout point, 82,000 is the core defense zone, and 79,000 is a potential observation level after a breakdown. If 82,000 breaks and the rebound is weak, 75,000 could become a deeper risk target; if support holds and price retakes 86,500, bears must reassess.
🧠 The most important thing now is not how accurate the prediction is, but whether your position can withstand being wrong.
💬 Do you think this round will break 82,000 first, or can bulls complete a counterattack at the key level? #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Bitcoin crashes sharply in 15 minutes, the battle to defend 2600 begins. Just a moment ago it was at 2700, now it has dropped to 2587, down over 3% in 24 hours. This drop is rapid and the reasons are straightforward:
BTC failed its third attempt to break through 87000, triggering sell pressure across the market. ETH, with high beta, followed the drop and the decline was amplified.
ETF has seen net outflows for 5 consecutive days, totaling over $200 million. Institutional funds are withdrawing, and short-term buying can't hold.
Whales are selling. An old whale with a cost basis of $0.31 just dumped 13,330 ETH.
Key levels:
Resistance above at 2607 with a sell wall, 2700 is the daily open zone. Support below at 2591 (24-hour low), breaking this could see 2550.
Trading strategy:
Long short-term: Light position entry at 2585-2590 if stable, stop loss at 2560, target 2620-2650
Short short-term: Test resistance at 2620-2650 on rebound, stop loss at 2680, target 2590-2560
Don't make reckless moves around 2600, wait for price to reach the edges of the range before acting. ETFs are still flowing out, and until BTC stabilizes above 87000, ETH is unlikely to strengthen independently.
Don't gamble recklessly, and you won't get liquidated. Staying alive is the truth. 🍻 股票代币化上线$CELO ，离我们还有多远？ 如果Celo真的上线股票代币，它可能会成为第一个把移动支付、稳定币和传统股票无缝连接起来的公链。这不是空想。Celo已经有稳定币支付的底子，有MiniPay两千万用户，有x402协议支持机器支付，有低于0.001美元的Gas费，还有兼容以太坊的Layer 2架构。技术上，部署代币化股票的智能合约、建立流动性池、接入合规框架，Celo都有现成的工具。问题是，社区现在把精力放在哪里。 从治理论坛的议题看，Celo社区当前的重心不在股票代币，而在自身的代币经济学稳定和网络治理结构。Opera寻求1.6亿枚CELO代币的提案、验证者奖励结构的调整、回购销毁机制的推进，这些议题占据了社区的主要注意力。社区更关心的是CELO的价值捕获能不能跑通，稳定币支付的基本盘能不能在拉美和非洲继续扩大。股票代币虽然逻辑上符合Celo连接传统金融与链上世界的定位，但优先级并不靠前。 Celo在RWA领域其实有基础。Token Terminal截至2026年3月的数据显示，Celo在代币化商品，主要是XAUt0黄金的持有者数量上已经排到全链第三，接近7.5万名持有者。大家好，国庆长假今天收官，海外这边却一点没闲着，出现了一个有意思的分化：周一美股纳指和英伟达双双创历史新高，标普距离前高只差半个点，美债10年期收益率却同步冲到5.3%上方，创2002年以来的高位。股市在为"非农爆冷、加息预期降温"欢呼，债市却在为"通胀粘性、长端利率抬升"定价，一边是风险偏好，一边是估值天花板。 币圈夹在中间，表现就比较纠结：BTC连续多日在87000一线受阻，24小时爆倉约1.7亿美元，多头占了六成；现货BTC ETF周一净流出约0.9亿美元，终结了前一日1.9亿美元的流入，资金明显在观望。链上机构倒没有停手：Strategy上周又增持334枚，总持仓来到约84.8万枚，BitMine的ETH持仓也突破600万枚。政策面偏暖，美财政部撤回了针对自托管钱包的加强监控提案，CFTC则提出了杠杆类加密交易的联邦监管框架，进入60天征求意见期。 接下来值得提前标记的财经日历（北京时间）： 10月8日 凌晨02:00，美联储9月FOMC会议纪要，今天的重头戏 10月8日 晚间20:30，美国初请失业金人数 10月14日 晚间20:30，美国9月CPI，非农之后的第二块关键拼图Altcoin funds are starting to sink down
$BTC is steady, only then will money dare to flow into small coins.
What is this price level:
$BTC is sideways, $ETH's bottom needs to be repeatedly tested.
The real trendsetter is still $SOL.
Liquidity of $HYPE is increasing.
Volatility of $NEAR is compressed very narrowly.
Easy to misread:
Narrowed volatility does not mean no direction.
It means both buyers and sellers have withdrawn, waiting for one side to make the first move.
The longer the compression, the faster the movement once it starts.
First see if $BTC is stable, then check if $ETH's bottom is solid.
If these two don't move, altcoins won't get their turn.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC $ETH #SpaceX stock price rebounds, hitting a new high since July
The leader has something to say
SpaceX stock price rebounds, hitting a new high since July, with a single-day increase of over 7%. Morgan Stanley reiterates overweight rating, target price $300. Musk's net worth returns to $1 trillion.
SpaceX and Tesla both rise, tech stock sentiment is warming up. But funds remain in traditional tech stocks, which draws liquidity away from Bitcoin. This is not a direct bearish factor, but a diversion.
For crypto, the more critical point is that macro pressure hasn't eased. The long end of US Treasury yields remains above 5.6%. After the non-farm payrolls, rate hike expectations have cooled, but long-term rates have not dropped. BTC ETFs are seeing inflows again, ETH continues to see outflows, funds are choosing sides.
My short position at 86500 is still open. The logic hasn't changed: positive news has been priced in, resistance above is dense, funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. Time to reduce positions, keep the rest to break even. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Manage your position size well, don't overleverage. SpaceX's rebound doesn't change the high interest rate environment, Bitcoin is unlikely to strengthen independently in the short term.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, stop losses must be set for trades, good luck.The U.S. government address transferred 833 BTC to Coinbase, with spot trading on OKX at $85,486.9 and a funding rate stuck at -0.0017%.
On OKX, BTC perpetual funding rate is at -0.0017%, and spot trades at $85,486.9. The U.S. government transferred out 833.6 BTC, with longs continuing to collect the discount today. On-chain data shows that about $71.56 million worth of BTC was transferred to Coinbase Prime 6 hours ago, along with 40,285 BNB. The U.S. government address still holds nearly $28 billion in assets, with a BTC base position of 324,000 coins. Compared to the 320,000 coin holding, transferring out 833 coins is just a fraction.
I just checked the OKX contracts page. BTC spot price dropped slightly by 0.62% in 24 hours, with total perpetual positions across the platform at $8.23 billion, BTC contracts accounting for $3.169 billion. The most obvious is that altcoin positions have been suppressed to 1.014, with funds continuously flowing towards BTC. BTC funding rate is at -0.0017%, shorts are paying interest to longs, and those borrowing coins to dump clearly dare not go heavy, with the fear and greed index still at 71 greed.
Moving to institutional channels inevitably raises speculation about selling pressure, but with tens of billions of dollars in spot turnover daily, absorbing this $70+ million is effortless.$AKE perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.03284, currently at 0.02883, floating profit +243.94%.
After hitting resistance near 0.033, it directly plunged in a waterfall dump. I followed the short trend with a stop loss set above 0.034. The 20x leverage position is very small, the movement was much weaker than expected, free falling directly, the percentage doubled more than twice!
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
Moved the stop loss up to 0.03, now watching if the 0.028 support can hold. $BTC $ETH 🔥 $BTC Be careful! If 85000 doesn't hold, 82000 might become the main battlefield for the next bull-bear showdown.
📉 Around 86500, there have been three consecutive failed attempts to break higher, indicating significant selling pressure above. The price struggles to open up space, and every bull counterattack is intercepted; the short-term strength is being tested.
💸 Even more concerning is the capital flow. According to this data, whales reduced about 30,000 BTC in the past week, worth over 2.5 billion USD; spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow close to 90 million USD. With insufficient incremental funds, it's not so easy for the market to continue pushing upward.
🌡️ The macro environment is also tough, with the 30-year US Treasury yield rising to 5.67% and the 10-year reaching 5.31%. High interest rates continue to pressure risk assets, and ahead of the FOMC meeting, cautious sentiment may also increase.
🛡️ Key areas to watch: 81517—82833 is an important support zone, and around 82000 is a position bulls need to defend. If it breaks down effectively, 79000 or even 75000 could come into view, but this is a risk scenario, not an inevitable trend.
⚠️ Don't blindly short just because you're bearish, and don't refuse to cut losses just because you don't want to give up floating profits.
💬 Do you think BTC will hold 82000, or will it continue to look for support lower? #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 River's proprietary model directly estimates Bitcoin's peak price at $840,000.
They calculate based on global asset allocation over the next 3–5 years.
Assuming 20%–40% of investment portfolios start holding Bitcoin, with an average allocation of 2%–4% in BTC, this could bring in $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion in new capital.
River then applies a 3x market cap multiplier to this portion of capital.
Continuing with this model, Bitcoin's final market cap would correspond to $5.5 trillion to $17.5 trillion, with a single coin price roughly between $250,000 and $840,000.
The global financial asset scale is large enough that as long as a portion of traditional funds gradually increase Bitcoin allocation from zero to 2%, 3%, or 4%, the amount of capital involved would already be enormous.A big waterfall drop early in the morning, this is a killer for the brothers who stayed up late holding positions! $BTC crashed from around 85500 down to 83500, plunging continuously within just a few minutes.
The short position opened near 86290.5 is still active, with unrealized profit reaching 275.91%, nearly 3 times. The initial short was mainly based on the resistance near 86500, expecting insufficient upward momentum and aiming to catch a pullback after a rally.
Honestly, although the direction was right, I didn't expect such a massive waterfall drop. The hourly chart shows consecutive bearish candles, volume increased breaking below multiple moving averages, and MACD bearish momentum clearly strengthened; the short-term trend has weakened.
Next, watch if 83500 can hold; a break below might test 83000 further. The resistance zone to watch on the upside is between 83990 and 84500 for any rebound. However, after such a sharp drop, a technical rebound could happen anytime. Since the short position already has profits, protecting gains is more important than blindly chasing shorts. $ETH $ZEC #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Before the release of the Fed meeting minutes tonight, funds are voting with their feet, retreating across the board. Bitcoin $BTC has fallen below a key level, Ethereum $ETH has dropped more than three points, and now is definitely not the time to catch a falling knife.
Why the drop? Because macro data is conflicting. The services PMI is barely holding in expansion territory, but the price index inside it has surged, indicating a resurgence of inflation in the service sector. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Cooling employment combined with price pressures is the most unpleasant stagflation scenario. The market fears the Fed will be forced to continue hawkish policies, so money is fleeing first.
Trading background and risk warnings must be clearly stated. Before such key data releases, liquidity is extremely poor, and the market is very fragile; even a slight disturbance can trigger a chain reaction of panic selling. I previously heavily bet on direction at similar data points and got brutally stopped out by whipsaws. The lesson learned from reviewing those trades is to never be stubborn.
Now hold the spot base positions firmly and unload all short-term leverage. Don’t try to guess the bottom before breaking key support. It’s better to miss this wave of volatility than to risk principal for the data. Preserve your ammunition and wait for the minutes to drop before making moves. #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $ZEC perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1377.2, now at 1315.72, floating profit +223.20%.
After hitting resistance near 1370, it directly plunged like a waterfall. I followed the short trend, setting stop loss above 1400. The 50x leverage position is very small, the movement was much weaker than expected, directly free-falling, the percentage gain more than doubled! $ETH $SOL
Moved stop loss up to 1350, now watching if the 1300 round number can be broken. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 [Breaking] ETH plunges nearly 4% within an hour, with about $370 million liquidated across the network in 1 hour
Starting from 09:50 Beijing time, the price quickly dropped: ETH fell from around $2690 to a low of $2591.71 (Binance, 10:05), a decline of about 3.7%; BTC dropped from around $85,340 to $83,577 (Binance, 10:05), down about 2%; SOL also fell to around 117. As of 10:21 Beijing time, ETH is about $2618, BTC about $84,040, showing a slight rebound.
According to TokenPost's summary, about $370 million was liquidated across the network within 1 hour as of 10:04 Beijing time, including about $136 million in ETH and about $102 million in BTC. OKX's public forced liquidation data also shows that almost all of the positions liquidated in this wave were long positions.
Currently, no clear single news trigger is seen; it looks more like a concentrated liquidation of high-leverage long positions. My view: technical rebounds often follow sharp drops, but don't rush to bottom-fish and add leverage; first see if ETH can hold above 2650.
This does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market just suddenly experienced a waterfall sell-off, with Bitcoin quickly dropping from around 86000 to 83600. Several attempts to break above 87000 in the past few days failed, and I have consistently emphasized short positions on rallies within this consolidation pattern, which has been repeatedly validated.
Currently, there is no clear sudden negative news; it seems more like after consecutive failures to break 87000, the bulls are starting to retreat, compounded by high leverage positions being liquidated, which quickly amplifies the short-term decline.
Trading advice:
Buy the dip around 83000-83500 for Bitcoin, and buy the dip around 2600 for Ethereum. At this moment, fully switch to a bullish stance #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Don't panic, Er Gou speaks the truth: this wave of $BTC $ETH $SOL dumping is "premeditated." Is it still possible to unwind shorts below 80,000?
Brothers, I am Er Gou. The screen is so green today it hurts my eyes; over the past 24 hours, long positions liquidated $87.26 million.
But don't rush to curse. This drop has a traceable cause: @frogmanhaha's wallet was hacked for $4 million, and nine types of assets were dumped and swapped into ETH, BNB, and SOL sales. Meanwhile, BTC was rejected three times at $87,000, triggering a chain reaction of selling pressure.
My judgment: this looks more like deleveraging and a panic sell-off, not a fundamental collapse. Bitmine is still adding 12,500 ETH overnight; institutions haven't fled.
Action advice: don't rush to bottom-fish; long liquidations haven't stopped yet. But you can gradually buy some spot, wait for the selling pressure to ease before making moves. Don't be greedy with shorts; this market reverses faster than flipping a page.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $BTC no panic, no panic, because I'm shorting😉. Luckily, before going long yesterday, I thought about it—after such a long sideways movement, there's no way retail investors would catch the bottom, so I directly went short instead.$SPCX perpetual 75x long position, opened at 159.02, now at 168.59, floating profit +451.35%.
The idea is very simple: the bottom consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that the chips are ready to explode. A single high-volume bullish candle directly pulls the price up from 159.02, a typical breakout signal, go long, not short. 75x leverage, stop loss at 155. The trend is continuously upward, giving no comfortable entry point.
At this position, I plan to first reduce half of the position to take profits, and move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 165 to let profits run. If 175 breaks out with volume, continue holding; if it fails to break, close all positions. $CT $DOGE #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $CELO 强化支付版图：重塑地区与跨区支付，未来金融基建不止有BTC 全球支付体系正处在一个尴尬的十字路口。一方面，跨境汇款和地区间结算的需求从未如此旺盛；另一方面，传统银行体系依然被营业时间、国界限制、代理行层层盘剥所困。一笔跨国转账走三五天是常态，手续费动辄几十美元。这个痛点，给了区块链支付网络巨大的机会。而在这个赛道上，Celo正在用一种与比特币截然不同的方式，强化自己的发展路径。 地区支付是Celo最扎实的基本盘。它的策略不是做一个通用的、漂浮在空中的全球结算层，而是深入到每一个具体的经济区域，解决当地人真实的支付难题。在拉丁美洲，Ripio的wFIAT稳定币栈已经覆盖阿根廷比索、巴西雷亚尔、墨西哥比索、哥伦比亚比索、智利比索和秘鲁索尔。用户可以直接用本地货币在链上交易，不需要先换成美元，再换成其他货币。在巴西，Pods Finance正式推出了Pix到Celo的入金通道，把巴西这个拥有全球最大即时支付用户群体之一的市场，直接连接到了Celo网络上。这意味着数百万巴西用户可以像使用本地支付系统一样，简单便捷地进入链上金融世界。在非洲，cNGN带来了尼日利亚奈拉，IDRX把印尼10.7 BTC Layout Strategy
From the chart: A quick spike down to 2587.76 followed by a rapid recovery, forming a long lower shadow indicating a panic sell-off after a sharp drop, presenting a short-term oversold rebound opportunity.
- Entry range: Around 2610–2615 for a pullback buy, do not chase highs; a second pullback near 2590 is a more conservative low entry opportunity
- Stop loss: Below 2587, which means breaking this low point at 2587.76; if broken, abandon the long position idea, indicating the bottom test failed
- Take profit
First target: Around 2640 (short-term rebound resistance)
Second target: Around 2670 (previous platform resistance level)
Strategy interpretation
1. A long lower shadow candlestick indicates support below, with short-term exhaustion of bearish selling pressure, representing an oversold recovery after a sharp drop;
2. The lower indicators are simultaneously dropping quickly with a bullish divergence repair expectation, suitable for trading the rebound, not a trend reversal long, but a short-term rebound long;
3. Risk control focus: This spike-down volatility is extreme, avoid heavy positions, and if a new low is broken again, strictly stop loss and do not hold losing positions. $ETH $BTC 1-hour liquidation, long positions liquidated over 100 million. How many people have been fooled by these waves of scams? Each rally fails to surpass the previous high, indeed it still needs to push down. The overall major trend is still upward.
Just finished liquidating longs, short-term momentum is insufficient, a "dead cat bounce" or localized short squeeze rebound could occur at any time.
On-chain market makers have already started transferring chips to exchanges, the major trend is bearish. But the large holders' long-short ratio of 1.59 is still holding firm; it’s possible the main force will first pump to trigger a short squeeze before dumping.
Going short now is very likely to get stopped out.
Key resistance level: $85,000 Key support level: $83,000
Long-short ratio: Retail and large holders are still long.
Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.2002, OKX retail long-short ratio is 1.22.
For large holders: number long-short ratio is 1.2883, position long-short ratio is as high as 1.596.
$ETH $ZEC #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 刚刚BTC已经跌破84000美元，24小时跌幅扩大到近2%。早上那会儿还在85000附近撑着，这会儿直接往下走了一个台阶。
87000美元这道坎，今天算是彻底验证了它的厚度。美股标普500隔夜又创了新高，科技股涨得热火朝天，比特币愣是一步没跟，冲到86000上方就被按了回来。CoinGlass的数据显示，87000附近堆着最密集的卖单流动性，越往上卖压越厚。说白了，市场不缺想买的人，缺的是愿意在87K上方接货的人。
不过链上有个信号我觉得值得留意。Binance过去一周BTC净流出超过23000枚，是2023年6月以来最大规模的单周流出，交易所储备一周少了约4万BTC。同时现货累计交易量差值从负的1亿美元翻正到了3300万，买方力量确实在悄悄增强。一边是价格砸，一边是币在往外提，这种背离对我来说比单纯看K线更有说服力。
美联储会议纪要是个变数。如果纪要偏鸽，83500附近的支撑应该能接住；要是鹰派意外，那就得看81000能不能扛住了。我自己的仓位没动，在这个位置割肉感觉不划算，但加仓也还不到时候，先看纪要落地再说。$BTC $ETH $XAUT #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 On days without contracts, my mind is as calm as still water; instead, the more it falls, the more excited I get. I no longer have the emotional ups and downs I used to have—making money feels good for a moment, but losing money makes me add more positions.
As long as you don't stop, every contract gambler's fate is to end up at zero.
I've been severely hit three times, and this is the second day of logging in.$MUBARAK perpetual 20x long position, opened at 0.063765, now at 0.076683, floating profit +405.17%.
The logic is simple: repeatedly tested near 0.063765 without breaking, each pullback was quickly pulled back, the lower shadow line is getting longer, strong buying support. Wait for a volume breakout above 0.07, confirm on the right side, then go long. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.062. The rise is very smooth, no chance for a pullback.
Now move the stop loss to 0.07 to lock in profits. If there is a volume breakout above 0.08, you can hold on for more. $ZEC $SOL #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC after several days of consolidation, Bitcoin's breakout to a local new high ultimately failed! Now the price has pulled back, triggering a large number of long position take-profits and liquidations, and the price is likely to have further downside room.
Why do I make this judgment?
Because since September 29, although Bitcoin has surged many times but failed to break the previous high and then pulled back, during the pullback process, it is clearly visible that a large amount of supporting funds have been holding the price, with price fluctuating and oscillating downward.
The recent drop shows signs of a direct dump, indicating that some funds are taking profits and fleeing or reallocating Bitcoin assets, and the supports formed in the past few days have almost all been broken. The bears are quite strong, so it depends on whether the early support range of 82800-83100 can hold.
If it doesn't hold, there is a high probability of further downside space opening up, and in the short term, I expect to see around 81400.
After such a rapid decline, a large number of longs have been liquidated. Beware of a quick rebound to cover shorts. I suggest not rushing to bottom-fish; wait until it stabilizes before making moves.
The above is just my personal opinion! 85,355 was the low point this morning and also the bottom line for short-term bulls. According to Chan theory, the downward move from 85,829 to 85,355 was very strong. Although the MACD green bars show signs of shortening, STICK turned positive at 12.1, and both DIFF and DEA are below the zero axis, indicating a need for short-term correction, but the overall trend is still dominated by bears. If you try to buy the dip now, are you catching a rebound or a reversal? If you can't tell, don't make a move. For those itching to act, the early session is the easiest time to get hit from both sides.# Latest Updates
- Houthi forces launched dozens of attacks on Saudi-supported armed assembly points, causing over 200 casualties on the opposing side, an unprecedented scale; Iran has carried out nine tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz this month, but Middle East oil flow has recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude holding above $101.
- Crypto exchange OKX completed a new round of financing, valued at $25 billion, with participation from Circle, Ripple, SC Ventures under Standard Chartered, and hedge fund Qube, continuing from the approximately $200 million investment by Intercontinental Exchange in March; BTC fluctuated around $85,000, CME futures premium at 0.30%, with BTC and ETH ETFs seeing net outflows of $90 million and $51 million respectively.
- According to Bloomberg, DeepSeek's current financing round is close to securing at least 80 billion RMB (about $12 billion), far exceeding the initial target of about 50 billion RMB, with CATL and Tencent continuing to lead the investment; the final scale may approach 100 billion RMB, and the financing process is nearing completion.
- Google and the largest U.S. nuclear power operator Constellation reached a long-term power purchase agreement for 3,590 MW, including a 20-year nuclear power contract; Constellation will invest over $4.3 billion to upgrade 11 nuclear reactors, with the first unit expected to connect to the grid in 2028.
- SpaceX plans to raise about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade bonds to purchase Nvidia chips, with Apollo expected to lead the investment; the deal is expected to close in 2027; the FAA released a proposal for new commercial space regulations on October 5, simplifying launch and re-entry licensing processes.
# Trading Analysis
- Conclusion remains unchanged: the market is cautious below new highs, closely watching CPI and Anthropic's prospectus.
- The market is beginning to digest the new global rate hike cycle. Daly said further rate hikes depend on whether inflation shocks from tariffs, oil prices, AI, etc., subside; Kazuo Ueda keeps the Bank of Japan's year-end rate hike window open, expecting a 25 basis point hike in December. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 5.28%, continuing to suppress risk assets. Middle East oil flow has recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels, with Saudi east-west pipeline oil transport at 5.8 million barrels/day, marginally easing supply shocks; Brent crude remains near $101. Attention is on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes early Thursday and progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
- The core contradiction in AI has shifted from hardware shortages to ROI validation: whether large model revenues can support high Capex in 2028, and whether frontier models can prevent distillation from widening the gap with open source. OpenAI's ARR increase and Anthropic's prospectus will provide more validation; a period of divergence and expected volatility remains.In the crypto circle, past experience shows that prices always drop during conferences. This time is no different; the Singapore conference is still ongoing today, and Bitcoin has dropped first as a form of respect. I really can't understand why every time there's a crypto conference, the coin prices are very likely to fall?
Could it really be, as some say, that the bloggers attending need to sell coins to buy plane tickets and pay for hotels? But the bloggers who can go there should have money and probably don't care about that. However, it might also be that everyone expects prices to drop during conferences, so they rush to sell. Regardless, whether prices go down or up, we shouldn't force explanations for market fluctuations.
The essence of a drop is that prices have risen too much, and the essence of a rise is that prices have fallen too much; this is the fundamental reason. As for macro factors, technical factors, and sentiment, they are just reasons the market uses to explain price movements. I actually hope for a continued drop because my position is too small, but even though people say it’s falling, Bitcoin hasn’t dropped much and is still at 84,000. It’s basically just a fluctuation. At 84,000, I won’t buy; it’s a bit high, so I’ll keep waiting for the right opportunity. Sudden plunge! The complete truth behind $BTC's rapid crash (review for reference only, not trading advice, contract risk is extremely high)
⚠️ The market changes in an instant, follow the trend to win, avoid heavy positions and stubborn holding!
Many are still confused, how did a stable market suddenly crash so hard?
This drop is not caused by a single negative factor but a chain reaction triggered by multiple hidden risks!
✅ Trigger: Key support broken in one strike
85000 is the lifeline everyone watches. Once broken, a large number of long positions with stop losses here are triggered collectively.
Forced liquidations aggressively sell off, the more it falls, the more stop losses trigger, causing a stampede-like crash, rapidly amplifying the decline.
✅ Behind the scenes: Leverage in the market is already severely crowded
During these days of consolidation, retail investors have been aggressively buying dips with increasing leverage.
When the market weakens slightly, fragile leveraged positions cannot withstand the volatility. The main players seize the highly concentrated chips, smash the market to shake out weak hands, and harvest a large number of short-term long positions.
✅ Capital undercurrent: Long momentum has long been exhausted
Repeated attempts to break above 85800 pressure repeatedly fail, unable to push to new highs.
Outside incremental funds hesitate to enter, spot capital inflow stalls, leaving only contract funds to battle back and forth. Buying power is weak; once selling pressure emerges, the market has no support.
✅ Chip pressure: Heavy trapped positions above
Previous rallies and pullbacks have accumulated massive trapped positions in the 86000-86600 range.
Each rebound releases a large amount of selling pressure from those trying to break even. Every step up for longs faces heavy resistance, multiple failed attacks, gradually eroding market confidence in going long.
✅ Sentiment turning point: Patience exhausted, funds pocketed and fled
Long horizontal consolidation with no positive breakout in sight, many short-term institutional longs choose to take profits and exit.
People shift from "buying the dip" to "running on the rebound," the market sentiment quietly and completely reverses.
Key point: This sharp drop was not caused by any sudden black swan event!
It was the resonance of chips, leverage, technicals, and market sentiment—several negative factors coinciding—that caused this rapid correction.
Current practical approach
Short-term bearish pressure is still releasing; do not rush to bottom fish or guess the bottom.
Prioritize shorting on rebounds that meet resistance; patiently wait for the 83500 support battle outcome, observe for clear signs of a stop in the decline before considering long positions on the rebound.
Bottom fishing in a downtrend is the hardest move; better to miss the first wave at the bottom than blindly catch a falling knife halfway up! #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 This $NEAR trade directly pushed today's "chain short" to an emotional extreme. Short opened at 5.154 with 50x leverage, current price 4.977, floating profit 170%. The large bearish candle on the right side of the chart smashed through the 5.0 psychological level down to 4.86, with volume bars expanding simultaneously, clearly a strong short squeeze.
Looking at the structure, after peaking at 5.374, the highs have been steadily decreasing, all rebounds are low-volume small bullish candles, and after breaking below the 5.1 consolidation zone, the bulls' defense line is completely vacated. Interestingly, the page is flashing negative news about the "NEAR Intents vulnerability exploit," combined with a retreating market sentiment, funds are using the news to push the price down, and the chip structure has completely deteriorated. A 2.23% drop in 24 hours, with 163 million in turnover, all buying is passive order-taking, with no active buying intention.
But at this point, market logic has taken a backseat, and trading psychology has become the core variable. From SNDK, MINA, SUI, FIL, ZEC to NEAR, all have had consecutive large profits from shorting, and the market's bearish consensus is extremely crowded. The long lower shadow at 4.86 on NEAR indicates that there is capital picking up cheap chips in the 4.8-5.0 range for repair. Under 50x leverage, the low-volume rebound after a sharp drop (currently 4.977) is most likely to wipe out a large portion of the high leverage profits.
Current handling: absolutely no adding to short positions, directly take profits in batches to lock in gains, leaving a very light base position to see if 4.86 can be broken. If the rebound to 5.1-5.2 is low volume, it is a second short entry point; if the price recovers above 5.2 with volume, bulls forcibly repair, and short positions should exit immediately.2599.26, $ETH this number is a bit glaring.
A few days ago it was still hovering above 2700, today it directly dropped below 2600, down 3.81% intraday.
Don't underestimate this four percent. When it climbs up, a 4% gain in a day is no big deal, but when it drops 4%, people get unsettled.
To be clear, the 2600 level itself doesn't mean much; what matters is how decisively it broke—without much struggle.
The question now isn't whether it will rebound, but whether anyone will buy on the rebound.
If pulling back to 2650 is difficult, that means the buying power is really weak.
I'm bearish, at least I’m not rushing to catch the bottom these two days.
Coins that don’t fall further are worth watching; with the current trend, it’s still too early.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $ETH U Sister 10.7 Wednesday $SOL Strategy
Entry conditions: On a rebound approaching the 121.5‑124.99 range, if the candlestick shows a long upper shadow and the upward volume shrinks, confirm the stagnation before entering a short position.
Stop loss position: Effectively hold above 125.5; if it breaks the previous high, abandon the short idea.
First target: 115.0, second target: 112.40
After $SOL surged to 124.99, it topped out after a round of upward movement, followed by repeated oscillations. The second rebound has consistently failed to refresh new highs, and the bulls' momentum is gradually fading.
After a period of range-bound oscillation, a large bearish candlestick broke downward, signaling a shift to a weak trend.
It is not recommended to chase shorts at the current price directly; wait for a rebound to repair the market. Enter short positions only when stagnation signals appear near the resistance range.Rapid decline, capital outflow!
As of 10:00, total liquidations across the network in 1 hour reached $410 million
Long liquidations hit $400 million while shorts only $11.462 million
This morning's drop is a concentrated liquidation of long positions
$BTC had $120 million liquidated in 1 hour, almost all longs
$ETH had $160 million liquidated in 1 hour, also mainly longs
ETH's liquidation scale exceeding BTC indicates heavier leverage buildup
Price break triggered massive forced liquidation of high-position longs
Closing pressure continues to push the market down, causing a chain reaction of stampede
Meanwhile, ETF capital flow shows divergence
$SOL spot ETF saw a net outflow of $3.6849 million in a single day
Institutional funds are withdrawing from SOL
While $HYPE spot ETF welcomed a net inflow of $2.9833 million
Capital rotation is occurring among sectors, not a full retreat
This drop has no sudden major negative news
The core is concentrated clearing of high-position long leverage
Funds are withdrawing from some coins and shifting to others
Market divergence is obvious; different coins' trends will continue to diverge
And this week the FOMC meeting minutes will be released
So volatility will arrive early
Get ready to act!
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $TRUMP perpetual 50x short position, opened at 2.042, currently 1.89, floating profit +372.18%.
Just betting on a top reversal: 2.042 tested three times without breaking, volume decreasing stepwise, very typical top characteristics. Enter the position the moment the bearish candle crashes down, never guess the top prematurely. 50x leverage, stop loss at 2.05. This wave moved very cleanly, almost no rebound.
For now, hold steady and let the bullet fly a bit. Set 1.95 as the defense line to protect the principal, wait for a clear signal around 1.8 before deciding to add or reduce, no rush. $ZEC $SOL #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $UNI perpetual 50x short position, opened at 9.158, currently 8.231, floating profit +506.11%.
The logic is simple: multiple attempts to rally near 9.15 were resisted, with obvious upper shadows, volume expanded but price stagnated, indicating effective top resistance. After seeing the stagnation signal, went short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 9.30. The trend oscillated downward, with some rebounds but overall bearish, breaking below the 8.5 level, floating profit over 5 times.
$BTC $ETH
Moved stop loss to 8.60 to lock in profits. If the 8.00 whole number level breaks with volume below, can hold a bit longer to watch the 7.80 area. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
Now there is a relatively positive signal in BTC's on-chain data: the selling pressure from whales has clearly decreased, and they are no longer dumping large amounts of coins onto exchanges to cash out.
On the other hand, spot ETFs have seen continuous inflows for three consecutive weeks, with institutions genuinely putting money into the market. While whales are not selling, institutions keep buying, making the spot support much stronger than before.
But don't take this directly as a signal for an imminent big rally. Whales not dumping only means short-term downward pressure has lessened; it doesn't mean they will actively push the price up. Continuous inflows into ETFs provide solid backing, but macroeconomic pressures remain, with US Treasury yields staying high and external factors ready to disrupt the market at any time.
Currently, selling pressure is weakening, but the offensive momentum hasn't fully emerged yet. The market is still in a consolidation pattern, not a one-sided bull market. $ETH $ZEC
Don't get overheated and go all-in just because of two positive data points. These positives are just groundwork; whether a breakout happens depends on whether volume can surge upward. Good data doesn't mean the price will immediately take off; risk must always come first.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% Celo社区正在寻找更稳定的质押机制，这件事比表面看起来更重要。 很多人只盯着CELO的价格波动，却忽略了网络底层正在发生的一场静默重构。质押，是Celo网络安全和治理的根基。当社区开始讨论“如何让质押更稳定”，它实际上在解决一个决定长期价值的问题：如何让锁在系统里的CELO，既能保障网络安全，又不会因为激励错配而不断流失。 先看最核心的变化。2026年1月，Celo社区通过治理提案，决定停止向验证者支付区块奖励，但保留质押者的收益。这意味着，验证者不再因为“运行节点”而获得报酬，他们的激励变成了——只有当他们被质押者投票选中，并且保持节点正常运行，才能间接分享生态的长期价值。这个变化释放了一个明确的信号：Celo不再为“存在”付费，只为“有效参与”付费。 但这带来了一个现实问题。验证者如果没有任何直接收入，他们为什么要继续维护基础设施？社区给出的答案是，把验证者的角色从“被雇佣的节点运营者”转变为“生态的长期利益相关者”。他们通过质押投票获得影响力，通过社区基金获得资助，通过生态成长获得代币升值。这是一种更长期、更对齐的激励结构，但前提是，质押本身必须足够稳定，才能留住这些参与者。 $ARB perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.20066, currently 0.18706, floating profit +338.88%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that the chips are ready to loosen. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 0.20066, a typical breakdown signal, short rather than long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 0.205. The trend is continuously downward, giving no comfortable exit points.
At this position, I plan to take profit on half of the position first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half to 0.195 to let profits run. If 0.18 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, close all positions. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Focus on the current ETH pullback in this round, dividing the support zones from near to far in the short term (ranges, not precise points):
1. First support (short-term weak support): around 2660
The lower edge of the previous consolidation box, serving as the first line of defense for short-term bulls. If there's a rapid sell-off, this level can easily be pierced by leveraged positions; if it holds, the price returns to box consolidation.
2. Second support (core chip area, the one you previously focused on): 2630~2633
The key Fibonacci retracement level of this rally; previously, the price rebounded here, making it a relatively strong buying support zone.
✅ Valid support confirmation: price drops to this range, spot inflows occur, liquidations release all at once, and candlesticks show a long lower shadow indicating a bottom test.
❌ Invalid break: daily/4-hour candles close consecutively below 2630 with increased volume, turning this support directly into resistance.
3. Third support (mid-term strong support): 2580~2550
A larger-scale chip concentration area; if 2633 fails, the next stop is this range; it marks the watershed of the current bullish trend. Once broken, the market will enter a deeper correction.
4. Long-term important support: around 2500
Psychological level plus previous platform; reaching here indicates a clear weakening of the current uptrend.
Distinction: Support ≠ guaranteed to hold
Support is merely a historically dense transaction area and a zone with concentrated algorithmic orders. It will fail directly under the following conditions:
• Rapid rise in US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar
• BTC simultaneously plunges, causing systemic selling pressure in the market
• Large continuous spot outflows and institutional sell-offs
• Chain liquidations of leveraged positions causing liquidity to dry up and sudden sharp breakdowns$ZEC This trade is a classic "big news landing turning into a sell-off day" scenario. The page was flashing the good news of Winklevoss submitting a spot ETF application, but the market reversed with a large-volume bearish candle, dropping directly from around 1368 to 1312, with a wick probing down to 1298. I shorted at 1368.89 with 50x leverage, currently floating a profit of 211%.
Looking at the candlestick structure, after reaching the high of 1384.76, there were frequent upper shadows, and the rebound volume weakened day by day. This established privacy coin usually has average liquidity; when stimulated by major news, if the buying volume cannot sustain and hold the high, it is a clear profit-taking distribution point. The volume bar of the bearish candle breaking the support clearly expanded, with a 3.17% drop in 24 hours and 1.066 billion in turnover, all active sell orders breaking through the bulls' defense. The long lower shadow at the low of 1298 indicates some funds are bargain hunting for a rebound, but the current rebound around 1312 is extremely weak, just a small-volume minor bearish candle, with bears still controlling the market.
However, doing this trade at today's closing session feels completely different. The previous several shorts (XRP, SNDK, MINA, SUI, FIL) all hit their targets, and the market bears are extremely crowded. As a highly volatile old coin, $ZEC with 50x leverage means the wick at 1298 could wipe out most of the floating profit. The current strategy is clear: do not cling to the trade during a sharp drop, take profits in batches to lock in gains, keep a very light position to see if 1298 breaks; if the rebound returns to the 1340-1360 range with low volume, it is a second short entry; if it closes above 1380 with volume, it means bulls are forcefully recovering, and no shorts will be held.$ETH perpetual 100x short position, opened at 2692.74, now at 2611.33, floating profit +302.33%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 2700 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was strong selling pressure. After confirming the top was valid, I decisively shorted on the bearish candle. Using 100x leverage, position size pushed to the extreme. $BTC $DOGE
Currently floating profit is +302.33%, trailing stop moved up to 2650. Not greedy, locking in profits first. #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $SNDK perpetual 75x short position, opened at 1718.5, now at 1642.6, floating profit +331.24%.
Didn't overthink it: the previous consolidation lasted long enough, the 1718.5 level was repeatedly confirmed as valid, the top pattern is very clear. Entered as soon as a high-volume bearish candle appeared, following the trend, not emotions. 75x leverage, stop loss at 1730. The drop was fast and steady, giving no chance for a second entry.
Locked in a safety buffer at 1680 first. My personal judgment is that there will be support around 1600; then I'll decide whether to exit or hold based on volume, without guessing the bottom prematurely. $DOGE $SOL #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 08:38, BTC 85,504. Since last night's high of 86,693, it has been steadily declining with no decent rebound in between. According to Chan theory, a 15-minute level downtrend center is forming; 85,829 is the lower edge of the upper center, and the current price is oscillating between 85,355 and 85,600. MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down, with moving averages in a bearish alignment. If you chased above 86,000 last night, how do you feel this morning? Don't rush; it might be even tougher if you're still stubbornly holding on and refusing to admit a mistake. $ORCA keeps getting stronger as it rises, so why is it more important to watch the support
$ORCA is up +22.33% in 24 hours, currently priced at 3.013. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 64 and 81 respectively. The strength is real, and the crowding is real too. The question is not whether it can continue to rise, but who is willing to catch it on the first pullback.
Put emotions aside first; the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 2.8464, currently strong; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 2.37, also currently strong. The short-term cycle exposes changes, while the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of crowding; when they conflict, beware of fluctuations. You can't just pick the side that benefits you.
The task for the stronger side is very clear: first, firmly hold above the 1-hour resistance at 3.335, then observe whether the 4-hour resistance near 3.335 can still maintain support. If it only briefly breaks through intraday and quickly returns to the range, the so-called breakout lacks the crucial second half.$FIL perpetual 50x long position, opened at 1.0623, now at 1.1026, floating profit +189.79%.
The logic is very simple: repeatedly testing near 1.0623 without breaking down, each pullback is quickly bought back, the lower shadows are getting longer, showing strong buying support. Wait for a volume breakout above 1.08, confirm on the right side, then go long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1.05. The rise is very smooth, no chance for a pullback.
Now move the stop loss to 1.08 to lock in profits. If there is a volume breakout above 1.12, you can hold on for more. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $SAND
The core catalyst for SAND's counter-trend strength is the removal of previous trading risk warnings by South Korea's leading exchanges Upbit and Bithumb. The cross-chain bridge vulnerability incident in August had caused the platforms to issue warnings, restricting fund inflows and outflows, which continuously suppressed the price. Now that the risk labels have been lifted and deposits and withdrawals have resumed, a large amount of Korean market funds have flowed back in, directly bringing ample buying pressure. Secondly, with the rotation of narratives between the metaverse and GameFi, funds have begun to return to the gaming sector. As a veteran leader in the metaverse, SAND has rich brand IP resources, numerous well-known brand collaborations, and a virtual land ecosystem with real use cases. The token has consumption attributes within the platform, making its fundamentals more solid compared to pure MEME tokens. On-chain data shows whales continuously accumulating, maintaining net buying for several months, with concentrated holdings and relatively controllable selling pressure. The buying support is stronger during market downturns. Additionally, the project has completed vulnerability compensation and promised no token inflation, alleviating market concerns about token issuance. Coupled with ongoing developments such as the AI creation engine and mobile version, new stories are continuously provided to the market. However, it is important to note that the short-term gains are significant, indicators have entered overbought territory, and Korean market funds tend to move quickly in and out. Once profit-taking concentrates, the correction could be severe. Even with strong momentum, systemic risks in the broader market cannot be ignored.