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#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
Let me share my view with you all: I lean "hawkish" on the September FOMC minutes tonight, and I will first guard against a short-term pullback in $BTC and $ETH.
What really matters this time is not whether there will be a rate hike tonight—the September hike has already been implemented. The minutes truly affect how many within the Fed support further tightening and how serious the inflation concerns are.
If the minutes repeatedly emphasize that inflation remains stubborn, the room for rate cuts is limited, and further hikes may still be possible, the market will definitely have to reprice a rate hike for October.
Currently, the market's expectation for a rate hike in October is not high, so I actually think the biggest risk tonight is a hawkish surprise.
Once U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar surge first, high-volatility assets like $BTC and $ETH are very likely to take a hit initially.
My strategy is simple:
Don't preemptively bet on data, don't chase longs.
If the minutes are hawkish, any rebound is an opportunity to watch for shorts;
If the minutes are dovish, first see if $BTC can reclaim key resistance before considering going long.
Tonight, I prefer to wait for the market to provide the answer rather than guessing it myself.
Do you think this round of minutes will be hawkish or dovish?Some people see that my $BTC and $ETH short positions have been hanging for a week without closing and think I'm stubbornly holding on. I'm not. I can hold because three macro signals this week all favor the bears: the dollar index has touched the year's high, the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to the highest since 2002, and oil prices are sticking at high levels. Together, these three indicate liquidity is tightening and risk assets are being drained. The crypto prices have been sideways$BTC is starting to test patience again; the real direction might come tonight.
Currently, $BTC is fluctuating around $84,000, having dropped from $86,600 down to about $83,700 during the day, indicating that selling pressure above is still quite evident.
For the short term, focus on two levels: whether $83,700 can hold will determine if the pullback continues; if it can climb back above $85,600, then testing $86,600 again becomes interesting.
My approach is simple: don’t chase the middle range, wait for key levels to provide answers. If $83,700 holds, expect a rebound; if it breaks, watch around $82,000 first. The more the market tests patience, the more patience is needed.Don't underestimate this bull market.
I prefer to understand it as: the momentum from the previous bull market that wasn't fully realized has been reshuffled and accumulated again in this round.
The last bull market experienced AI draining value and the 1011 chain liquidation cascade; many funds and narratives hadn't had the chance to fully play out before the market was abruptly interrupted.
But this time, the script might be reversing.
AI is no longer a value drainer but could become a booster for Crypto.
The stronger AI gets, the stronger humanity's demand for privacy, asset autonomy, and data security becomes; privacy coins might become a "firewall" in the future financial system.
AI Agents are spawning new financial forms, and this open, automated, borderless financial system naturally aligns with blockchain.
Moreover, with RWA becoming clearer, borderless pricing and on-chain settlement are starting to truly leverage blockchain's advantages.
So the momentum this round is not a single narrative but a multiple overlay of AI × Crypto × Privacy × RWA.
What truly deserves attention are projects at the intersection of these era-defining waves:
AI × Crypto, privacy infrastructure, and RWA infrastructure with real business and performance support.
This time, it’s hard to expect a "one-size-fits-all" scenario.
My strategy is simple:
I don’t chase all assets, only hold those that genuinely benefit from the era’s trends and realize their vision gradually.
Currently, I focus on:
$ZEC + $NEAR
The logic is simple, and holding is simple too. 💎 $ETH — NOON WATCH
ETH ~$2.61K and the $2.6K zone is now the key battle.
🎯 $2.65K reclaim → $2.70K → $2.80K
⚠️ $2.60K lose → $2.50K → $2.43K
ETF pressure is real: U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw$201.9M outflows on Oct. 6, extending the losing streak to six sessions.
No need to chase.
$2.65K reclaim or $2.60K breakdown? 👀$AVAX
AVAX rises against the market trend, is this a localized opportunity or a general risk appetite?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 11.118—11.729 USDT, change +3.37%, trading volume about 9.86 million USDT.
Mainstream coins mostly show negative in the window, but AVAX rises and stays at a higher position, indicating a divergence in capital performance. A single leading asset does not mean the overall market risk appetite has recovered; broader confirmation is needed.
If the leader quickly gives back gains and falls below the midpoint, the localized rotation may end; if it maintains higher lows when the market pulls back, the independent strength is more credible.#标普500首次站上7800点，纳指再创新高
On August 13, the S&P closed just 1 point shy of 7,800. It took 54 days to cross that 1 point.
▪️ That was its 27th record high of the year; it didn’t break a new high for the next 54 days, with a low of 7,551.81 in between
▪️ From the 27th to the 28th record, it only moved less than 20 points (0.26%) — while the Nasdaq rose 1.3% in the same period
▪️ The index stands at an all-time high, but the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs dropped from 16 to 5
▪️ Q3 earnings expectations are up 30% year-over-year (exceeding 25% for the third consecutive quarter), with the tech sector around 67%, and the earnings season starts next week
The disagreement isn’t about whether Q3 earnings can deliver 30%, but that this new high was made before the earnings season began. Records are still being set, but the intervals are getting longer.
The direction favors the bulls, the structure is intact. But the upside is almost exhausted by sellers: the average year-end target from 20 strategists is 7,970, just 1.9% above the close. The condition to open up is a weekly gain of over 1% in the first week of earnings season, with 7,900 as the next target above; the invalidation condition is a close below 7,770, with 7,666 as the next downside target.The market suddenly turned sharply downward. During this major market correction, Brother Maji's total position has shrunk to 137 million, with the account going from a big profit directly into a big loss, and the rebalancing actions are very obvious.
$BTC: Directly cut 274 coins, leaving 175 coins. Floating loss of 174,900, liquidation price at 63,700, funding fee -68,300. After reducing the position, the risk is clearly much smaller.
$ETH: Reversed to add 3,000 coins, holding 38,000 coins. Floating loss expanded to 2,627,000, liquidation price at 2521.59, funding fee -1,314,000. Buying more as it falls, the biggest risk is here now.
$HYPE: Added 15,000 coins, holding 160,000 coins. Floating profit shrank to 120,600, liquidation price 67.94, funding fee -78,500. Still the only profitable one, but the profit buffer has thinned. #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% I’m not hopeless, and I believe in the grind. But location matters. In an environment where the currency devalues overnight and the system fights your every move, trading without friction is impossible. You’re not just fighting the market; you’re fighting macro instability
$USDT Market anomaly! $BTC faces resistance at high levels and pulls back. Personal record: opened 100x short at 84611, current price 83940.5, floating profit 77.85%.
Trading logic: 4-hour candle closed with a long upper shadow, MACD death cross, 84600 is the top of a dense chip area. Fundamentally, ETF outflows and on-chain whale selling indicate a bearish trend.
The trend shows 84000 as short-term resistance and 83000 as support below. For high-leverage floating profit positions, it is recommended to set breakeven stop loss, reduce positions on dips, keep some positions to observe, guard against spike rebounds, and prioritize stability. #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $ETH $ZEC 📰 【Total Stablecoin Holders Surpass 300 Million, BNB Chain Leads with Nearly 13 Million New Holders in Q3】
According to BlockBeats, on October 7, based on CryptoRank data, as of the end of September, the total number of stablecoin holders worldwide has reached 300 million. BNB Chain added nearly 13 million new stablecoin holders in Q3, becoming the network with the largest growth among major public chains; Celo, Tron, and Solana each added over 2 million holders during the same period. As of the end of September, BNB Chain has become the network with the highest number of stablecoin holders, with data showing stablecoins are further spreading across multiple blockchain ecosystems.
The surge to 300 million stablecoin users indicates that on-chain activity is still increasing. BNB Chain’s recent growth is the strongest, likely supported by low-cost interactions and airdrop expectations. With so many participants, don’t just look at the number of addresses—focus more on real retention and capital accumulation. Which chain have you been interacting with recently? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
Whether to cut interest rates or not is not that important!
What is the basis? Just look at the US Dollar Index!
US Dollar Index = interest rate hike. Essentially, raising interest rates is to bring the dollar back and make the dollar more valuable. There is no need to raise interest rates now. Pulling up the US Dollar Index also makes the dollar more valuable.
Also, generally before and after elections, interest rates are not raised. This habit has been maintained for 35 years, and this is the common thinking now! What if this idea is broken? Have you thought about what might happen?
Obviously, it would be a big waterfall! So this issue needs to be considered.$CORE
CORE presents speculative opportunities but is overall a high-risk asset. It focuses on the BTCFi narrative, with the Satoshi Plus consensus leveraging Bitcoin's hash power to secure the network, supporting non-custodial Bitcoin staking for yield. The total supply is capped at 2.1 billion tokens, imposing long-term supply constraints. The latest roadmap plans to use ecosystem revenue to buy back tokens, building a yield layer infrastructure for BTC. If the Bitcoin ecosystem experiences a broad rally and BTC staking demand grows rapidly, CORE could see a rebound. However, its long-term weak performance is hard to reverse in the short term due to early large miner and staking token unlocks causing continuous selling pressure; ecosystem TVL and user growth have fallen short of expectations, with many yields relying on token subsidies and insufficient real cash flow. Market confidence in the project is weak, and capital recognition is far below that of established Layer 1s. Strong competitors like Babylon in the same space also divert BTC staking users. Its opportunities are event-driven and suitable only for short-term speculation, making it difficult to sustain a long-term bull trend. When the market turns bearish, its decline often exceeds that of mainstream DeFi tokens. It should not be approached with a long-term heavy investment mindset; strict stop-loss settings are necessary, beware of persistent gradual declines, and do not blindly rely on the "Bitcoin ecosystem" narrative to be bullish.AMD这周我更愿意看它继续往上走。苏姿丰昨天说要大幅增加明年的芯片供应，还在找供应链伙伴协调产能。这个动作让我有点期待，公司自己对后面的需求仍有信心。这里聊的是纳斯达克的AMD股票。 按Reuters的报道，她这趟台湾行程要协调CPU和GPU生产，也在和内存厂商争取供应。AMD今年已经增加过供应，明年还想继续扩。后面的需求如果能接上，多交一些货就有机会带来更多收入。不过这份计划还没有变成明年的销售额。 8月公布的二季度财报里，数据中心收入67.18亿美元，同比增长107%，AMD说EPYC服务器CPU和Instinct GPU需求都强。增长已经体现在收入里，接下来我想看扩产能不能让它继续增长。这份旧财报可以帮我理解公司为什么要扩产，不能当作昨天又拿到了新订单。 昨天AMD涨2.80%收在649.42美元，成交量明显高于前一交易日，收盘价也越过了上周五的盘中高点。上涨有成交配合，收盘还保留了涨幅，这是我看它继续走强的另一个理由。今天盘前在647美元附近，暂时只是小幅回落。 据StreetInsider昨天报道，Mizuho分析师Vijay Rakesh把目标价从580美元提到705美元，BTC whale sell pressure weakens, ETF funds see net inflows for three consecutive weeks
$BTC $ETH #BTC whale sell pressure weakens, the market is experiencing a positive shift in supply and demand dynamics. On-chain data shows that the long-term trend of whales net depositing Bitcoin to exchanges has ended; this trend lasted over three months since summer and concluded in late August, after which fund flows have remained negative. The significant reduction in sell pressure lays a healthier foundation for price appreciation.
Meanwhile, institutional funds are accelerating their return. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $241 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows, with cumulative historical net inflows reaching $57.79 billion. BlackRock's IBIT stood out, attracting $450 million in a single week, continuing to lead institutional allocation demand.
The retreat of whale selling combined with the continuous inflow of ETF funds creates a resonance, signaling the market's transition from supply-driven pressure to a new demand-driven phase.
#BTC whale sell pressure weakens, ETF funds see net inflows for three consecutive weeks The final day of the National Day holiday was brutal, with $370 million liquidated across the entire network in just one hour.
It directly smashed through the sideways range that had lasted for half a month; the 2700 level simply couldn't hold.
ETH saw $136 million liquidated in one hour, BTC $102 million.
OKX's ETH positions dropped 4.47% in one go, all forced liquidations.
From 2695 down to 2587, a 108-point drop in twenty minutes.
5-minute trading volume surged from 40,000 contracts straight up to 3.45 million contracts.
ETH/BTC hit a new low at 0.031.
In the face of absolute selling pressure, all supports are just decorations. #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW: Opening a New Era of 24/7 Markets
- Above $2825: After a valid daily-level breakout, the next target is $3000–$3050.
- $2700–$2825: Current battleground zone, historically over 10 million ETH have changed hands here, with multiple attempts to break through failing.
- $2620: Short-term support; breaking below strengthens bearish signals.
- $2500: If the weekly close falls below this, the Q3 rebound structure will weaken, confirming a bearish pattern.
Ethereum’s drivers rely more on ETF capital flows and supply structure. The US spot ETH ETF recorded about $80.9 million net inflow on October 1, indicating some institutional demand recovery; meanwhile, over 42 million ETH are staked, exchange reserves are at historic lows, and the tight circulating supply amplifies buying pressure. However, ETF capital flows are volatile themselves, with a net outflow in a single week in late September, so trend judgment cannot rely solely on cumulative inflows.
Next, focus on three key lines:
Observation Key Level Meaning
Bitcoin $86,700–$87,000 A volume breakout targets $90,000–$100,000
Bitcoin $83,300–$84,600 Holding this maintains the rebound structure
Ethereum $2825 Valid breakout targets $3000–$3050
Ethereum $2620 Breaking below signals short-term weakness
Common Variable ETF capital flow $ETH Let's talk about $SOL today. I remember the first time I entered the crypto market, it was trading Solana because at that time, Bitcoin felt too expensive, and I was actually not optimistic about it. I recall the first time I traded SOL, it was over 40. Looking back now, I realize I missed out on so many opportunities. Solana's highest price last year reached nearly 300. At the same time, as you can see, with the crypto market going bearish, it has now dropped to around 120. Let me share my view on its future. I think SOL has potential, but the potential isn't very large. It mainly depends on its blockchain. If its blockchain doesn't become active, it won't be able to compete with chains like BSC! The previous PVP model? Its market share has now dropped to one-tenth of what it was. If it can't find a new development path, it will be crushed under the relentless wheels of history.$PUMP This round started opening positions around 0.00625, with a long period of consolidation before the real momentum kicked in after reclaiming 0.0064. Now the price has pushed to around 0.00662, and the position's floating profit has reached 2.96 times, with most of this gain coming from the subsequent acceleration.
The 4-hour chart first raised the consolidation platform, then volume clearly expanded, pushing the price to test around 0.0068; the 1-hour MACD is also continuing to strengthen, indicating that the short-term bulls haven't completely cooled off. However, the KDJ has already reached a high level, so chasing after continuous rallies now definitely has a worse risk-reward ratio than earlier.
I am now more inclined to see if the 0.0064–0.00645 range can hold. If it holds, there is still a chance to test 0.0068 again; if there is volume expansion but price stagnation at the high level, then protect profits first and avoid giving back the gains already made. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ Bitcoin signaled yesterday to short near 87,000, and it has now dropped below 84,000.
There is upward momentum now, but it’s clearly not strong; the short-term range is still oscillating between 82,000 and 87,000, so there are opportunities for both shorting high and buying low.
But I’m actually more focused on 82,000 now.
Since this round of rise went above 82,000, it hasn’t truly broken below it, so I believe 82,000 will most likely be tested once.
If this is really a bull market, a false break below 82,000 to shake out long liquidity, then a quick recovery and a new breakout above 87,000 would actually be a healthier trend.
So the key now isn’t fearing no drop, but rather to see:
Whether 82,000 is a valid break or just a shakeout.
Looking at Ethereum, it dropped directly from around 2,700 to below 2,600 yesterday, clearly weaker than Bitcoin.
So don’t rush to bottom-fish ETH now.
My judgment remains: Bitcoin’s current correction may not be over, and Ethereum naturally still has room to fall.
The short-term strategy is simple:
BTC: short near 87,000, buy near 82,000;
ETH: wait first, don’t rush to catch the bottom.
The truly comfortable buying opportunity will come after BTC completes a dip and market panic is released.
If 82,000 breaks down but quickly recovers, that would be worth focusing on for the next rally.BTC and ETH pullback level predictions:
(Purely personal opinion, not investment advice)
$BTC pullback is still expected around 77000
$ETH pullback is still expected around 2400
Currently, every day there are mainstream coins (with up to 50x leverage) surging, mainly as a market expectation management for the upcoming crypto market pullback.
When the market pulls back, it won't crash from a low point but from a high point after a surge.
Therefore, do not chase the rally in the current market!!! (💥💥)
Every small crash will rebound, so short-term trading to catch the rebound is possible.
The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes may carry more weight than usual, not only reflecting the decision-making process for a 25 basis point rate hike in September but also possibly revealing the indicators the Fed uses to measure policy easing and clues on how many more hikes may be needed.
Whether to raise rates further depends mainly on whether inflation can be controlled. Although whale selling pressure has weakened➕ETF funds have had net inflows supporting the crypto market, it is only support!!! #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% Still shouting $MINA catch-up rally, but the price has slipped down from 0.13176 to 0.10108, a typical bull trap. I judge retail investors are fantasizing while the main force is distributing; entering at 0.13176 with 20x short leverage yields a floating profit of 465.69%, profiting from the narrative's fading momentum. Every rebound on the 5-minute chart is suppressed, the bearish force is not exhausted.
The daily descending channel plus the 0.125 neckline break is a standard pattern. I treat this trade as a training ground, with very small position and tight stop loss. Next, watch the 0.115 resistance; take half profit if it rallies and closes with a long upper shadow; keep a base position if it breaks below 0.105. Set a trailing stop at 0.115, and take profits in batches between 0.105 and 0.10. Run if it's a false breakout, let profits run if it's a true breakout. $SOL $ZEC #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Seeing Robinhood making a hierarchical purchase of $25 million in $BTC, this is not small retail speculation, but a listed platform moving crypto onto its own balance sheet.
Combined with the previous three consecutive weeks of ETF net inflows and weakening whale sell pressure, institutions are accumulating simultaneously.
In the short term, BTC still fell nearly 2%, HOOD also pulled back, the market has not yet accepted it. But in the mid-term view, this kind of “corporate crypto holding” is a trend signal, not an emotional pulse.
My stance remains unchanged: don’t chase news-driven spikes, watch for support on pullbacks, and add in batches if volume is moderate.
Good chips are flowing from retail hands to institutions, don’t get shaken out by a single bearish candle.
$ETH
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Except for $OKB, which rode the momentum of the conference and the positive news of strategic cooperation with $CRCL to gain 12 points, all other coins are falling. #OKXNOW: ushering in a new era of 24/7 markets
After the conference, OKX ICE applied to the SEC for a 5-year exemption to bring 63 NYSE stocks on-chain for 24/7 tokenized trading, with TSV DEX deployed on X Layer + permissioned Uniswap v4, and SBT access control$NMR volume ratio 14.4 times, 24h surge 42.7%, bullish direction confirmed
$NMR currently at 17.11, up 42.7% in 24h, intraday from 11.8 to 20.62. At this level, I am clearly bullish, only trading with stop-loss — volume ratio 14.4 times, this is an independent rally driven by strong capital.
RSI 75.8 is overbought, but MACD golden cross above zero line has lasted 15 days, red bars are still expanding, MA7 is pressing MA30 in a bullish alignment for the 14th day; Bollinger Bands width 67.0%, closing above the upper band — overbought is a side effect of strength, not a top signal.
The capital side is even more interesting, fee rate -0.00426884 means shorts are paying to hold; OI up 43.56% from yesterday’s record, long-short account ratio 0.9577 — new positions are entering, retail investors are not crowded, this round is real money.
Resistance above: 18.02, 18.99, 24h high 20.62
Support below: 12.84 (4h SAR), 24h low 11.8
The market is in risk_off mode (up/down ratio 18/75), NMR is a strong independent performer against the wind. Plan: enter at current price 17.11, cut losses if it breaks below 12.84, hold if not broken, take profit near 20.62.
Follow me, don’t get lost next wave.
$NMR $BTCExcept for $OKB, which rode the momentum of the conference and the positive news of strategic cooperation with $CRCL to gain 12 points, all other coins are falling. #OKXNOW: ushering in a new era of 24/7 markets
After the conference, OKX ICE applied to the SEC for a 5-year exemption to bring 63 NYSE stocks on-chain for 24/7 tokenized trading, with TSV DEX deployed on X Layer + permissioned Uniswap v4, and SBT access control.
This can be seen as the perfect fulfillment of the first big promiseSTG officially exits, and LayerZero begins to truly take over Stargate's value capture.
On October 7, Binance announced the completion of the migration from STG to ZRO, with an exchange rate of 1 STG = 0.08634 ZRO. Subsequent STG deposits and withdrawals will no longer be supported.
This is not an ordinary token swap, but a further integration of assets and ecosystem between Stargate and LayerZero.
The transmission logic is simple:
STG exits → ZRO inherits token value → Stargate liquidity and LayerZero ecosystem further unify → ZRO's market attention and capital competition increase.
For ZRO, the short term may bring some capital and narrative catalysts, but it should also be noted that token migration itself does not equal new value.
What truly determines ZRO's future potential is the usage of LayerZero's cross-chain infrastructure, ecosystem growth, and the token's actual value capture ability.
My judgment: In the short term, you can pay attention to ZRO's trading volume and capital flow after the migration is completed, but it is not recommended to chase the price up just because of the “STG to ZRO” swap.
If ZRO breaks out with volume and capital continues to flow in, the migration narrative may continue to ferment; if volume surges but capital quickly flows out, be cautious of profit-taking.
What is truly worth watching this time is whether STG's exit can make ZRO a more direct value carrier for the LayerZero ecosystem.
$ZRO 最脆弱的一环，其实是86,600上方那批等着出货的筹码。 你有没有发现，BTC今天冲高那一下，量是跟不上的？ 盘中最高摸到86,634，随后又滑回85,500附近。这个来回本身不算大新闻，但它暴露了一件事：86,600一带有人在等卖，而且不急着追高。市场目前在交易的，不是"能不能破新高"，而是"这波反弹到底有多少真实买盘愿意接"。 我自己的仓位前两天加得偏重，今天冲高时减了一点。不是看空，是节奏上不舒服。价格离压力位太近的时候，情绪容易被K线牵着走，这时候我更愿意先修正，而不是硬扛。 偏多的路径其实很清楚：如果再次上攻并站稳86,600上方，那87,500到88,000这个区间就值得重新盯。站稳意味着卖压被消化，短线风险偏好会回暖，ETH和强势山寨可能跟着补一波，前提是BTC不能假突破后立刻回落。 但风险也在同一个位置。多次冲不上去，然后跌破85,100，那84,500就是下一个观察点。这种走法会让追多的人被套在86,000上方，情绪一转，山寨的回撤通常比BTC更急。现在比较容易被忽略的是：这轮反弹里，杠杆多头的信心恢复得比现货买盘快，一旦关键位失守，去杠杆的传导会比想象中干脆。 所以$BTC 10X long remains open from $86,460. After reaching $86,694, $BTC pulled back toward $86,159, but the short-term structure is still holding. Price remains above the 1H EMA20 around $85,948, while RSI sits near 55. 📊 Leverage has increased alongside the recent move, with perpetual positions up about 5.8% and funding slightly positive. However, $BTC is still struggling to break the previous high, meaning late longs could face volatility. ⚠️ $OKX smart money remains slightly bullish, but overaBrothers, this time Maji is probably going to face huge pressure!
Look at the position changes from this morning until now.
Total perpetual positions dropped from 158 million to 142 million, a direct decrease of nearly 39 million.
$BTC: cut from 456 coins to 225 coins
$ETH: increased from 36,100 coins to 38,200 coins
HYPE and PUMP also slightly increased positions
Latest holdings:
🔴BTC｜225 coins, 40x full position, slight floating loss
🔴ETH｜heavily invested 100 million USD, 25x full position, floating loss of 2.45 million, funding fees are still continuously eating into profits
🟢HYPE and PUMP small positions barely offset losses
Overall position shrank, only ETH was heavily increased.
Here comes the key point.
Maji’s winning or losing move is not BTC at all.
It’s this 100 million USD Ethereum gamble!🚨 $UNI IS PULLING BACK, BUT THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE GETTING STRONGER
UNI is trading around $8.6–$8.9 after rejecting the $9.2 area
Meanwhile, Uniswap generated $14.7M revenue in September, with Robinhood Chain contributing 53%
For me, $8.50 is the level to defend
Reclaim $9.20–$9.30 and the next expansion could get interesting.The bearish trend is still continuing, don't rush to enter and bottom-fish. The FOMC meeting minutes at 2 AM on October 8 will be a key turning point.
$QQQ The Nasdaq short position entered at 160 last night has already started to profit. It's a bit of a pity that the entry was a little early and missed the highest point at 162. Currently, the 4-hour chart MACD is above the zero line, the DIFF line has started to turn down forming a death cross, and the volume green bars are continuously shrinking. In the short term, it should continue to maintain a fluctuating downward trend. I plan to hold the short position with the target first looking at the support level at 740 below.
$ETH My short position on Ethereum is still being held. After dropping sharply from the high of 2700 this morning, it has been slightly fluctuating and repairing within the 2610–2620 range. The market is being heavily suppressed by the bears with no strength to rebound, but it should be noted that the number of bulls is still increasing. Having so many bottom-fishing funds during a downtrend is not a good sign. The market is very likely to break the support level and continue to drop further.
$AAVE I added a bit more to my short position. The position was closed at 173 this morning, missing out on one point of profit. The market has now rebounded to around 177. The rebound has some strength but is not strong. Currently, the MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line but the volume is slowly decreasing again. This kind of small rebound is a good opportunity to add to shorts.
The above are just my personal market insights and do not constitute any trading advice.$CAP lets go short! The bulls as a whole appear to have earned 3.51 million, but their profit rate is only 43.85%, while the bears as a whole are still losing, yet their profit rate is as high as 58.75%!
This set of divergent data reveals the issue: among 285 bulls, 160 are actually underwater and taking hits. That 3.51 million profit is all held by less than half of the early bulls, while among 177 bears, 104 are already steadily profitable. The total loss of the bears is only dragged down by a few large orders.
In other words, most bulls on the field are firmly trapped, while most bears are making money. The trapped bulls have to cut losses if prices drop, and they rush to exit at any rebound. The early bulls are ready to take profits at any time. The bull camp now, from top to bottom, is full of sell orders lined up waiting to dump the market.
Most bulls are trapped, most bears are profiting. Which side should you take in this market? Don’t hesitate, just follow and go short!TRUMP smashed through the $2.0 range box that had been flat for a whole week with a single K-line this morning.
This 4H candle starting at 08:00: opened at 2.008, lowest at 1.757, with over 222 million dollars traded in just over two hours, exceeding the volume of any full 4H candle last week. This is not a slow decline, but a concentrated liquidation.
Three data points support this interpretation:
1. Funding rate turned negative (-0.0075%), indicating shorts are starting to pay.🚨 $UNI IS PULLING BACK, BUT THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE GETTING STRONGER
UNI is trading around $8.6–$8.9 after rejecting the $9.2 area
Meanwhile, Uniswap generated $14.7M revenue in September, with Robinhood Chain contributing 53%
For me, $8.50 is the level to defend
Reclaim $9.20–$9.30 and the next expansion could get interesting.$SOL is testing the lower boundary of its rising wedge
Price is around $118, and the $117–$118 zone is the key support to watch
If bulls defend this area and reclaim $122–$124, I think the next move toward $130+ could get interesting
Lose $117, and the bullish setup weakens
For now, I’m watching the support reaction. $BTC has been hovering around 86,000 for a whole week, with intraday volatility squeezed within 2%, the market unusually quiet. Someone asked me if holding a short position during such times is uncomfortable; on the contrary, I find it reassuring. What I fear most is the constant up-and-down swings that shake people off their positions; a sideways market actually lets me sleep soundly. With volatility compressed like this, it can't stay this way forever; sooner or later, it will break out in one$FIL is making a strong move! 🔥 It reached around $1.21, gaining 8.75% in a day despite the broader market staying weak. The rally could have a fundamental reason: Filecoin’s early linear unlocks are expected to be nearly completed by mid-October, potentially reducing daily new supply by around 70% and easing selling pressure. With a mainnet upgrade also approaching, Filecoin’s decentralized storage narrative is gaining fresh attention as AI continues to generate massive amounts of data. 🤖📦 M$HYPE VẪN ĐANG GIỮ VỮNG MỐC 90 USD SAU ĐỢT MỞ KHÓA. Đợt mở khóa lớn đã diễn ra, vậy mà $HYPE vẫn trụ vững đáng ngạc nhiên quanh vùng thấp của mức 90 USD Điều thú vị hơn nữa: các cá voi vẫn đang mua vào. Một ví mới đang âm thầm tích lũy thông qua Coinbase Prime, mua thêm: 🐋 36,87K HYPE 💰 ~3,39 triệu USD ⏱️ Khoảng 8 giờ trước Ví đó hiện nắm giữ khoảng 6 triệu USD HYPE, trong khi những cá voi lớn hơn mà chúng ta theo dõi trước đó vẫn đang giữ nguyên vị thế. Và đây là lý do tôi cho rằng luận điểmPut the $SSV trend chart under the lightbox; what I see is not a pullback, but an acute aortic dissection—the patient is still conscious, but the vessel wall has already started to peel.
A 24-hour rise of 5.09% sounds like improvement. But hemodynamics don't lie: the 1-hour RSI is already 68.1, the long-term RSI is 61.8, both upward curves have lost elasticity, equivalent to a racing heart rate with decreasing stroke volume. In the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price is at the 95% position, with only 0.4% room left on the upper band, while the lower band is 7.2% away; the medium-term is worse, with the price standing at 116%, exceeding the upper band by 1.1%, and the lower band 9.3% away. This is not perfusion; this is the vessel wall being stretched thin under high pressure perfusion.
My judgment: typical compensatory hyperperfusion. The real lesion is not in the price but in the contraction reserve of the buying-side myocardium—the sharper the pull, the more the blood supply depends on a single pathway, with zero collateral circulation.
Operationally, I will not intervene at the current price. Cutting now equals opening the aorta at the highest perfusion pressure. I will wait for it to push the blood pressure to $2.26 (3.4% above the current price), which is the anesthesia induction point and the entry for shorts.
📉 Short:
Entry: 2.26 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: 1.98 (-9.5%)
Take Profit 2: 2.00 (-8.5%)
Stop Loss: 2.51 (+14.6%)
The take profit at $1.98 is not a random line. It marks the scar position of the previous ventricular wall; when the price falls there, short-term chips will experience ischemia-reperfusion, releasing selling pressure naturally. The risk-reward ratio is close to 1:1.4, which is acceptable tension for a case already decompensated.
The stop loss at $2.51 is my extracorporeal circulation backup pump. If the price breaks above this level by 14.6%, it means collateral circulation has been successfully rebuilt, the diagnosis is overturned, and I will immediately close the chest, withdraw, and admit the mistake—no excuses, no additions, no emotions.
The hardest decision in the ICU is not opening the chest but deciding when not to touch this heart. The most dangerous signal for $SSV right now is not the 5.09%, but that its upward slope has exceeded the tolerance limit of its own vessel wall.
The monitor is still beeping. But sinus rhythm never equals a healthy heart.The contract market is really running away this time! Not trying to scare you, but the data is so red it's almost purple, just like the Huabei bill at the end of the month.
$BTC: 588 million net outflow in 24 hours, 5.186 billion outflow in 30 days — this isn’t just withdrawing funds, it’s moving house!
$ETH: 413 million outflow in 24 hours, 2.929 billion outflow in 30 days — Ethereum says: I'm leaving too, don’t stop me.
$SOL: 53.2 million outflow in 24 hours — Solana says: Wait for me, I can’t hold on either!
The key is, this isn’t just a one-day emotional spike.
BTC has basically seen net outflows from 30 minutes to 30 days; $ETH and $SOL are also bleeding continuously in the mid to long term. The contract market funds are collectively retreating, and leveraged capital’s risk appetite has completely flattened.
$BTC and $ETH still have slight capital inflows in 5-minute intervals, like someone halfway running away realizing they forgot their phone; $ZEC is even more outrageous, with a 59.44 million net inflow in 24 hours, becoming the only standout attracting funds against the trend.
Before the funds come back, chasing longs is just fighting the trend head-on, basically taking punches to the face. What really needs watching is: when will $BTC’s outflow start to narrow, and can $ETH and $SOL stop the bleeding.
If the outflow continues, the next wave might not be about how much the price drops, but rather — who breaks first and cries for help. #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资 Anchorage Digital's acquisition of Routable is not just about buying a payment company; it's about securing the "last mile" for enterprise funds entering the stablecoin world.
Routable helps enterprises complete payee verification, tax compliance, and global bulk payments through APIs, covering over 220 countries, supporting both fiat and stablecoins simultaneously.
This means Anchorage is extending its business from "custody and settlement" further into enterprise payments.
The logic is clear:
Enterprise payment demand → Routable provides fiat payment network → Anchorage integrates stablecoins and tokenized deposits → Fiat and on-chain funds connect → Enterprise funds truly enter the on-chain payment system.
My judgment is that this has a greater long-term significance for the stablecoin sector than just a single company's business expansion.
One of the biggest pain points for stablecoins in the past was that while on-chain usage was convenient, enterprises still had to deal with bank accounts, fiat settlement, tax, and compliance when making real payments.
Routable fills exactly this gap.
If in the future large tech companies, financial institutions, and Fortune 500 enterprises can freely switch between fiat, stablecoins, and tokenized deposits through the same infrastructure, stablecoins will no longer be just "crypto assets" in exchanges but will gradually become part of enterprise payment infrastructure.
The short-term impact on coin prices is limited, but from an industry perspective, this is a long-term infrastructure benefit.The most dangerous piece on the chessboard is not the opponent's strong attack, but his own pawn that has advanced high—just one square away from promotion, yet also one step away from being captured. $RON is exactly such a pawn right now.
It has only risen 2.78% in 24 hours, seemingly sluggish, but the short-term RSI has already hit the overbought zone at 70.3, with the 1-hour reading exceeding 64 and triggering a sell signal. What does this mean? It means the opponent has pushed the wing pawn chain past the midline, the formation looks good, but the rear is full of empty squares.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands: the short-term price position is 112%, already standing beyond the upper band—only -0.3% away from the upper band, but +2.8% gap from the lower band. The piece has moved out of its proper range; in endgame terminology, this is called "isolated pawn deep advance," the next step is either being exchanged or surrounded. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 54%, neither high nor low, indicating the overall situation has not provided any upward support; this is just a local tactic, not a full-scale offensive.
The long-term RSI is 40.5, neutral to weak. The divergence between short-term overbought and long-term neutral is a textbook example of "tactical gain, strategic loss." My midgame judgment is: this is not a prelude to promotion, but a bull trap.
My variation is as follows—
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.05 (current price +1.6%)
Take Profit 1: 0.05 (-4.6%)
Take Profit 2: 0.05 (-4.3%)
Stop Loss: 0.06 (+13.3%)
Placing entry 1.6% above the current price is my last feigned initiative left for the opponent—letting him push one more square forward, sending all the chasing pawns into my fire zone. The two take profit levels correspond to downward drops of 4.6% and 4.3%, which are the squares I marked when calculating the third variation.
Stop loss is set at +13.3%, which is indeed wide. But this width is not arbitrary; it leaves space for the opponent's "long move": short-term overbought combined with long-term neutral means he still has one emotional surge left, so the stop loss must be placed after that surge is fully released. Wide stop loss with small position size is an endgame principle—giving the opponent no chance to turn the game around before being forced to concede.
Risk-reward calculation: using a 4.6% take profit against a 13.3% stop loss looks like a losing position. But a player never calculates single-step odds, but probability weights—the short-term RSI at 70.3 combined with Bollinger Band position at 112% means the success rate of an upward breakout is much lower than a downward return, so this trade has a positive expected value.
My chess clock is running, the opponent's pawn is still advancing. And I have already seen the square where it will be exchanged five moves later. #strategyplaybook$ETH breaking down - 2680 -> 2650 -> 2580-2600 zone $BTC stuck at 86500 resistance, 85000 bulls defending, 88000 = bull market trigger Weak market, divergence at 2715-20 playing out. Master Chief out. #ETH #BTCToday I went all in short on $CT, with my position clearly displayed on the chart. Since the manipulative whales like to pump hard, let them come; I want to see if you can actually push my position to liquidation.
Then I glanced at $ZEC, and my mindset felt much more at ease. The short position opened around 1343 is right at a genuine high-level loosening point; the price has just turned downward, and the bulls who chased the highs are fleeing one after another, with no extra fake bullish traps. The holding experience here is much more stable than with $CT.
$WLD is still rising against the trend today, so I’m not planning to open new positions for now. I will continue holding my $CT short position and won’t move it casually.
I’m not calling on brothers and sisters to follow my trades; I’m simply sharing my current positions and trading ideas without any guidance. Both bulls and bears are stubbornly holding their ground now; no need to argue about who wins or loses verbally. In the end, whoever admits defeat and gets liquidated first will be revealed by the candlesticks themselves. The market will naturally provide the most direct answer.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Previously, when talking about stocks on-chain, there was at least one premise:
The company had already gone public.
$ONDO has taken a step further this time—starting to provide on-chain exposure to private companies, and the first batch is directly targeting AI.
I find this quite interesting.
For companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, ordinary people don’t just not know they’re valuable; often, they simply can’t buy in.
They are not publicly listed.
The ones who can truly participate in primary market financing are mainly VCs, funds, and high-net-worth investors over the long term.
So in the past, when doing Tokenized Stocks on-chain, I always felt it was solving the problem of "how to trade."
Ondo is now starting to tackle another, more complicated issue:
Can assets that originally had no eligibility to be purchased be made accessible to more people for price exposure through on-chain products?
If this path works, the logic of RWA will change a lot.
Previously, people understood RWA more as tokenizing US Treasuries, funds, gold, and already publicly listed stocks.
These assets already have mature markets; it’s just that the holding and settlement methods have been moved on-chain.
Private Markets are different.
What they really want to open up is an asset pool that originally had very high entry barriers. I haven't really touched ENA recently.
The reason is simple: looking at the price chart of the coin, there's just no desire.
But today, when I looked at Ethena's data again, I found something starting to feel off:
$ENA is still grinding at a low level, but the supply of USDe is climbing back up.
Now the USDe supply has returned to around 7 billion USD, and Ethena's total protocol TVL has also climbed back above 8 billion USD.
This creates a pretty interesting divergence.
For many projects, when the token price drops, users, TVL, and revenue all run away together.
Ethena now feels more like the token is dropping on its own, but the underlying money-making machine is still running.
The larger the USDe scale, the more assets Ethena has to use for spot/perpetual hedging, staking, and yield strategies. What really needs to be observed is whether these scales can ultimately continue to convert into protocol revenue, and then be passed on to ENA through fee switches, buybacks, or other mechanisms.
This is also why I'm not in a hurry to bottom-fish just because "ENA has dropped a lot."
A well-run protocol doesn't necessarily mean the token will immediately be valuable.
As Ethena becomes more profitable, how much of that will $ENA actually get?
If this question remains unanswered, even if USDe reaches 10 billion USD, ENA might still continue to lie low.The facade of this building is peeling off, but not a single load-bearing column is crooked—24 hours down 8.88%, the market is screaming, and the first thing I do is check its foundation.
First, look at the structural displacement. The price is currently at 0.51, the short-term Bollinger Band position is only 4%, just 0.7% from the lower band—this is not a collapse, the column base is pressed to the limit bearing surface, the deformation has reached the edge of the design allowable value. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 22%, with 9.8% clearance from the lower band, indicating the main frame's verticality is intact, only local floor slabs are shaking. What really makes me sign off is the RSI: short-term 28.9, oversold zone, the rebar has bent to the critical point of plastic deformation; while the long-term reading is 60.6, steady neutral to slightly strong. Short-term collapse, long-term stable—this is a typical temporary load disturbance during construction, not a geological fault.
I've been in projects for thirty years; what I fear most is not a drop, but a weak underlying structure. The white paper is a rendering; anyone can make it look good. What really determines whether this building can reach thirty floors is the pile foundation depth, concrete grade, and the later expandable MEP shafts. $RE's current move is like dismantling formwork and cleaning slurry, driving unstable scattered soldiers off the floor. This kind of wash, after volume contraction, is often more solid than a sharp pull.
My layout plan is simple: don't chase, wait for a pullback to the structural elevation before entering.
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.48 (current price -5.5%, pullback to pile cap level)
Take Profit 1: 0.62 (+22.2%, first floor structure topped out, exit half)
Take Profit 2: 0.66 (+31.1%, reaching mid-term Bollinger upper band, fully exit)
Stop Loss: 0.43 (-15.1%, breaking the cap means foundation failure, unconditional exit)
Note the range from Take Profit 2 to Stop Loss: from 0.43 to 0.66, the risk-reward ratio is close to 1.5:1, combined with short-term oversold rebound momentum, this is a construction plan that can be stamped. But I must draw a red line—if 0.43 is effectively broken, it’s not a chance to add positions, it means the geological report is invalid, the whole building must be demolished and redrawn, no hesitation for even a second.
Structural engineering has an iron rule: reinforcement is always cheaper than rework, and rework is always cheaper than collapse. Now someone is throwing away the drawings and running at this point, I just want to ask—if you haven’t even clearly seen where the load-bearing walls are, on what basis do you dismantle?$ZEC is really quite interesting.
Winklevoss just submitted a spot ETF application, with long-term compliance expectations fully priced in, but the market hasn't rushed to rally; instead, it has been consolidating with low volume around 1300-1330. This indicates that funds are waiting to see the SEC's stance, and no one dares to accumulate early.
Right now, it's a game of positive expectations providing a floor, but the technicals remain weak. Wait for a volume breakout and a firm hold above 1330 to confirm the direction. On-chain, sellers are retreating. Glassnode points out that the trend of "whales net depositing to exchanges" that started in the summer and lasted for more than three months has ended.
This round of sell-off lasted twice as long as similar trends in 2023 and ended in late August. Since then, the fund flow has remained negative—coins are leaving exchanges rather than flooding in to queue for sale.
Binance data is even more intuitive: in the week ending September 27, there was a net outflow of 23,137 BTC, the highest since June 2023; from September 20 to now, Binance's Bitcoin reserves have decreased by nearly 40,000 BTC. Starting October 1, whales added about 14,335 BTC in holdings, equivalent to approximately $1.22 billion.
Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have cumulatively accumulated over 110,000 BTC since mid-July; addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have also increased holdings by about 41,000 BTC in the past ten days. On the other side, the 30-day rolling scale of stablecoins transferred by whales to Binance rose from $21.7 billion to $30.5 billion, an increase of about 40%.
The capital side confirms this simultaneously. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $241 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of positive inflows. BlackRock's IBIT attracted $450 million in a single week and remains the absolute main force; Fidelity's FBTC, on the other hand, saw a net outflow of $168 million. #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入