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Hello brothers and sisters, Coin Bro here. 👋 Let’s take a look at Big Bro Maji’s latest portfolio adjustment. With the market grinding lower and momentum staying weak, Big Bro decided to cut both HYPE and PUMP. Most of the HYPE gains were given back, while PUMP ended in a loss. Instead of continuing to pay funding fees and spreading capital across weaker positions, he chose to exit and refocus. After freeing up capital, the portfolio was rebalanced to around $111M: 🔹 BTC: Added 13 BTC, bringinADA's trend is also cautious, with limited rebound strength, and the patience of capital towards established public chains is still being tested. Cardano's technical roadmap and community foundation are solid, but the market now values real users, on-chain activity, and the speed of new narrative diffusion more; if the ecosystem side lacks continuous new projects or data improvements, the market tends to lag behind popular sectors. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether volume recovers and whether the overall market sentiment can stop falling. $ADAThe daily chart of Bitcoin shows a high-level bearish divergence structure, and the smaller timeframe has broken below the 4-hour ascending trendline with strength. In the short term, focus on the 85000 level; if the price rebounds to this level and faces resistance, a light short position can be tried, while also paying attention to the defensive strength of the lower boundary of the consolidation range below.
If support near 82500 holds, there is still a chance for the price to surge to 87000 and clear liquidity above. Therefore, short positions placed around 85000 must have strict stop-loss settings. Once the 82500-80000 support is effectively broken, a deep correction will officially start, with the downside target around 75000.
Ethereum's trend is clearly weak, currently falling to support near 2560 with a lack of rebound momentum. Intraday attention should be on the 2645 resistance level; if it cannot be effectively broken upwards, the priority will be to test the 2560 support. If this support fails, the market will return to the previous consolidation range, with a downside limit near 2400. $BTC $TRUMP saw a certain whale holding Trump Coin at a floating loss of 90% for a long time. When he first bought it, it was worth over 10 million USD, but now the account has less than 3 million USD left. Truly miserable! What I admire most is how he can hold for so long. Even faith has its limits, right? Could it be just to attend a banquet at the White House every year? From this whale, we also see that if the coin held is trash, even holding it long-term only leads to total defeat. So not every coin can be held long-term, although long-term does have a higher winning rate. I've been tracking Trump Coin for a long time, and I've witnessed many times how it cuts people. Instead of thinking about how to empower it, they only think about how to trap the most cash. Do you think it can be a legitimate coin? When it comes to $TRUMP coin, I always prefer to short it!Before positive developments materialize, first look at the ledger and buying pressure
For INJ's buyback and burn, the ledger must be considered from two sides: one is how much token the ecosystem revenue can replace, and the other is whether the market is willing to absorb it. Focusing only on "burn" can be exciting, but the approximately 7.9% drop over 24 hours reminds us that supply contraction alone cannot withstand the overall decline. Only when revenue growth, participation increase, and token reduction align does it carry weight. In the short term, first look at the actual burn volume and price support; don't mistake long-term narratives as a tool to prop up the market.
ARB has dropped about 8.6% in a week and only has about a 7.8% gain in a month, with the previous upward momentum clearly slowing down. Now is not the time to rush for a rebound but to allow time for recovery. If rebounds are short and declines are long, it indicates that buying confidence has not yet returned. The project lacks sufficient discussion, and the price must respond. Waiting is acceptable, but new evidence is needed.
ZEC's NU7 reduces the block production target from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, but the daily issuance remains unchanged. So this is an experience upgrade, not a supply contraction. The focus is on test results, mainnet deployment, and wallet and exchange platform adaptation. The Winklevoss-backed institution's application for a ZEC spot ETF is a clue of expectations, not something already realized. Progress must be implemented step by step for expectations to be solid; don't count on the plan's effects prematurely.
Burns, upgrades, and ETFs are all worth watching, but buying pressure and actual implementation are the answers.10.8 Thursday Xuwen Big Cake Auntie's Thought Process
Current Market Status: BTC has fallen back to 82,636, ETH has fallen back to 2,549, with the 15-minute MA5/10/20 showing a bearish alignment, and prices are being suppressed. However, trading volume has shrunk drastically, indicating a volume contraction with a slow decline rather than a panic sell-off; selling pressure is rapidly exhausting. Yesterday's lows BTC 82,163 / ETH 2,532 represent the iron bottom of this round of consolidation, with a very low probability of being retested.
Liquidation Aspect: The lower long liquidation zone (BTC 81,522 / ETH 2,528) has been completely broken through, with no more orders to crush below. The upper short liquidation zone (BTC 83,840-85,031 / ETH 2,603-2,642) is thick and dense, acting as a natural magnet for a rebound.
Information and Capital Aspect: The macro bearish factors brought by the Fed's hawkish stance and new highs in US Treasury yields were fully priced in during last night's plunge (124,000 liquidations network-wide, $700 million long positions cleared). Industry insider Jiang Zhuoer reversed the trend by buying back 75% of his position at 82,789, Bitmine holds 6.01 million ETH locked up firmly, signaling clear bottom support. Today's trading strategy: buy on dips, target the upper short liquidation zone.
BTC: Long in the 82,100-82,600 range, stop loss at 82,000
Target: Break 83,500, look for 84,300
ETH: Long in the 2,535-2,550 range, stop loss at 2,520
Target: Break 2,580, look for 2,620
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 BTC key points to watch today — Oct 8
* $82,000–$82,500 = major support. BTC is currently testing this area. A strong hold could trigger a bounce.
* $80,000 = critical downside level. Losing $82K and then $80K would make the short-term structure significantly more bearish.
* $84,000–$85,000 = first recovery zone. Reclaiming this area would improve bullish momentum.
* $87,000–$87,500 = major resistance. A clean breakout above it could open the way toward $90K–$95K. Brothers, today's market is really a bit unusual.
Brent crude oil surged with a big bullish candle directly hitting $104, a single-day increase of over 4%. Meanwhile, BTC not only didn't follow but dropped all the way to around 82,000.
Many might ask: What does the oil price rising have to do with BTC falling?
Actually, the connection is quite significant.
When crude oil rises, transportation and production costs also go up, and the market's first reaction is whether inflation will resurface. Once inflation expectations rise, the Fed's rate cuts become even harder, and some might even start trading on "high rates lasting longer."
When interest rates rise, capital tends to avoid high-volatility assets first, and BTC naturally takes the hit.
But don't simply think "oil up means crypto must go down."
This is not a fixed formula; right now, the market is most sensitive to inflation and interest rates. Oil prices just happen to be the emotional switch—when they rise, capital gets nervous.
So at this stage, just watching the candlesticks is no longer enough.
It's best to watch Brent crude, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar index together.
If oil prices don't cool down, the crypto market will find it hard to truly relax in the short term.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 如果今天的盘面是一道选择题，那么BTC正卡在"继续冲"还是"先歇歇"的选项之间。 你也在盯84K这个位置吗？ 早上醒来第一件事就是看BTC，它还在84K附近晃，昨晚冲到87K又被压回来了，那种感觉就像爬到半山腰被一阵风吹下来，不算失败，但确实要重新攒力气。现在这个阶段，我倾向于把它定义为趋势里的分歧段，不是启动，也还没到派发，更像是多空在重新确认彼此底线。 先说BTC。84K如果能守住，短线买家大概率会回来试探86K到87K，而真正让我在意的不是反弹本身，是能不能干净利落地站上87K。一旦突破，90K的门就开了，那会吸引一批观望资金重新进场。但反过来，如果84K反复被测试还站不稳，情绪会从"等突破"变成"先跑再说"，那时候回调的深度可能就不只是几百刀的事了。 ETH这边同样在关键区间，2.6K到2.7K之间来回磨。收回2.7K，多头逻辑会明显增强，也会带动山寨的情绪修复；但如果丢掉2.6K，卖压会顺势释放，而且ETH的弱势往往比BTC更伤山寨的信心。这里有个容易被忽略的点：ETH的走势现在不只是自己的事，它更像是山寨季情绪的体温计。 我今天特别想聊的是跨市场联动这条线。BTC和ETH同Currently, no Robinhood Chain protocol/application has a daily revenue exceeding $100,000.
The on-chain native launcher Pons has declined sharply, with its daily revenue even being surpassed by two Perp DEX applications on the chain, Lighter and Arcus.
Patiently waiting for the next wave of opportunities #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
Another warning signal has appeared in the global bond market.
The US 10-year Treasury yield once rose to 5.364%, and the 30-year reached 5.696%, both hitting highs not seen in about 24 years.
The UK 30-year government bond yield also broke through 6%, reaching a new high since 1998.
There are two main concerns behind this: inflation pressure caused by rising oil prices, and the government's continuously increasing borrowing demand.
Why pay attention to this?
Because the higher the US Treasury yields, the greater the opportunity cost for funds holding high-risk assets. Bitcoin will not necessarily fall because of this, but if high yields persist, altcoins lacking sustained capital inflows may suffer more.
Next, I will focus on two things:
Whether US Treasury yields can fall back from these highs;
Whether $BTC can hold key levels under macro pressure.
If yields continue to rise and BTC fails to hold support, the risks for altcoins may further increase.
This time, it's not about who is calling a bull market, but whether funds are willing to continue taking risks. Bull markets often have sharp drops, and this is not just a scare tactic.
From January 2017 breaking the previous high to nearly hitting $20,000 in December, BTC experienced eight corrections of over 20% in those 11 months.
From December 2020 breaking the 2017 high to surging to $69,000 in November 2021, also in 11 months, there were four corrections exceeding 20%.
The harshest was from April to July 2021, with a drop of more than half.
On the ETH side, it has already adjusted to near the third Fibonacci point: 2805 minus (2805 minus 2355) times 0.618, approximately 2526. Currently, the signal of weakening decline only appears on the 4-hour chart; the daily to 3-day charts still lean bearish with pressure, with a possibility of a false break.
Watch three supports below: 2512, 2496, 2480, around the 3-day Bollinger middle band. These provide pullback opportunities for buying the dip. For rebounds, first look at 2596 to 2612; breaking above 2626 turns short-term bullish, then look at 2736 to 2750.
If stagnation leads to a high, the 10-day moving average is the target; 2468 is the first support at the 10-day line, set defense around there. $BTC $ETH
Personal opinion, not investment advice. $SOL current price is 114.47, down 1.98% in 24 hours, sliding from a high of 117.79 to 114.09, nearly a 4-point drop intraday, now stuck around 114.50. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the short-term bearish structure is very clear. The three moving averages MA5 (115.47), MA10 (116.90), and MA20 (118.69) are diverging sharply downward, and the price is moving along the lower Bollinger Band (114.23), with the low of 114.09 almost touching the lower band. The previous drop from 124.96 is nearly 11%, which is relatively large among major coins.
114.09 is today's low and a key short-term support; breaking below it could see 113 or even 110. On the upside, 118.69 is the middle Bollinger Band resistance; only by reclaiming this level can a rebound toward 120 be considered. The 90-day gain is still 46%, and the long-term structure remains healthy, but the sharp short-term drop requires time to digest.
The Solana Foundation's VP of Technology said users don't need to enter a safe-haven mode; this is more to soothe sentiment. For the market to strengthen, it still depends on the overall market conditions.
$BTC $ETH
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $ZEC
My position is stuck halfway up the mountain, but the market trend is drilling down to the core. The cost at 1248 is now nearly 9% underwater. I originally thought to follow the trend and go long, but the crash gave me a harsh lesson. The big trend has been a super bull market for half a year, but the current trend is a one-way waterfall. Profit-taking is flooding out wildly, and the bulls have no defense. When the trend is down, all faith is just a paper tiger. Tonight, lights off and eating noodles.Record ETF inflows and rising holdings show that strategic demand for gold remains intact. But a falling spot price alongside a firmer dollar, higher Treasury yields and lighter futures longs suggests the marginal price setter is still macro liquidity.
My read: ETF demand can cushion drawdowns, yet it may not reverse them until rate and dollar pressure ease. The tension is whether inflation keeps yields restrictive for longer.
#GoldETFsVsHighRates I once read about Jim Simons and Renaissance Technologies, and it left a deep impression on me. He didn't look for a group of people with good market intuition, but mathematicians, physicists, statisticians, and computer scientists. A group of the smartest minds in the world, using the best data, the best computing resources, and massive capital, researching for many years, all just to find a small, repeatable probabilistic edge in the market.
On the other hand, an ordinary person works an eight-hour job during the day, opens TradingView at eleven at night, learns two indicators, watches three videos, and prepares to make stable profits the next day. This scene is actually quite absurd. CrowdStrike said China used AI to attack South Korean financial institutions, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded with four words: "Unaware."
Just saw this, and my first reaction wasn’t about who’s right or wrong, but how this script is becoming more and more familiar.
A cybersecurity company releases a report naming a certain country, then the market starts to speculate. This routine isn’t new in the crypto space either; on-chain analysis firms release reports linking certain addresses to certain exchanges, and prices move first out of respect.
What really caught my attention was Mao Ning’s next sentence: AI profoundly impacts cybersecurity, and the international community needs to sit down and set new rules.
Translated, this means that AI offense and defense is no longer just a technical issue, it’s a rules issue. Whoever sets the rules holds the initiative.
What impact does this have on the market? Basically none in the short term. This kind of thing is too far from coin prices, at most it counts as emotional noise.
But looking longer term, if the cybersecurity narrative gets hyped, related concepts might get some attention. I don’t chase this kind of thing; news-driven stuff comes fast and goes fast.
Let me say this first: there will most likely be follow-up reports on this, so don’t rush to take sides. Let’s see who brings real substance first.
#美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 $ZEC 【On-Chain Trading Update｜BTC】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 82,635.74 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 1,239,536.04 USD
▪ Leverage: 16x
Note: This address has earned over 117,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +4.40% $BZ When you go long, the strait automatically opens; when you go short, the strait automatically closes 😂 Watching our meager gains every day.Blood pressure is rising, heart rate is soaring, but when the ultrasound probe is placed, the actual myocardial contraction amplitude is only half of the normal value—this is typical compensatory tachycardia, not an improvement in cardiac function. $RON currently shows this ECG.
In the past 24 hours, it has only increased by 2.78%, which is not critical on any monitoring chart. However, the short-term RSI has already been pushed to 70.3, surpassing the overbought threshold, indicating sympathetic nervous system overactivation; while the long-term RSI remains at a mid-lower level of 40.5. In clinical terms: superficial heart rate is wildly soaring, but the underlying ejection fraction is not keeping up at all.
More worrisome is the shape of the Bollinger Bands. The short-term price position has already hit 112% of the bandwidth, the vessel walls are stretched to their physical limit, with only 0.3% residual space left to the upper band—almost no room to maneuver. The mid-term position is at 54%, with 3.6% buffer space left to the upper band. This indicates that the proximal pressure is local, sharp, and acute, while the distal structural support has not yet been compromised.
The hemodynamic conclusion is clear: this is a short-term hyperperfusion, not a structural improvement. Once sympathetic tension subsides, the price will retract along the path of least resistance, and the first stop of the pullback is the more than 4% space near the middle band.
My surgical plan is as follows:
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.05 (current price +1.6%, wait for it to surge once more before cutting)
Take Profit 1: $0.05 (-4.6%)
Take Profit 2: $0.05 (-4.3%)
Stop Loss: $0.06 (+13.3%)
A preoperative note must be added: this stop loss is 13.3% away from entry, while the first take profit is only -4.6%, meaning the potential loss space is three times the profit space. On stage, this is called "a tourniquet tied on the main artery"—the cost is too high. Therefore, the incision must be small, exposure must be sufficient: position size compressed to one-tenth of the usual dose, using exploratory puncture instead of extensive resection, first confirming the lesion boundary before deciding whether to expand the surgical field.
The real risk is not that the directional judgment is wrong, but that you use a 1:1 position size at a risk-reward ratio close to 1:3. That is not surgery, that is gambling.
The echocardiography report has only one conclusion: this heart does not need rescue; it needs to wait for itself to stop that ineffective chaotic beating.In the short term, I am actually more bullish on $FET.
Currently, the price is at a relatively low level, with considerable room before reaching the historical high, so there is some expectation of valuation recovery in the short term. At the same time, the circulation rate has already reached over 85%, and recent screenshots show that the unlocking scale is very small, so the selling pressure from new supply in the short term is relatively limited.
More importantly, $FET itself combines the narratives of AI + ASI Alliance. With the market re-speculating the AI sector and funds flowing back into mainstream AI assets, it is relatively easy for $FET to become a target for capital rotation. The current price is rising, and if it can continue to break through the resistance ahead with increased volume, a trend strengthening may form in the short term.
So the short-term logic is: low-level recovery + AI narrative + limited unlocking pressure + expectation of capital rotation. As long as the volume-price structure does not deteriorate significantly, I will prioritize bullish opportunities after pullbacks. $BTC — These 1,500+ coins may only be the appetizer. The bigger selling pressure could still be ahead. The US government recently transferred around 1,583.8 BTC to exchanges. At first glance, that sounds significant, but compared with the government’s much larger Bitcoin holdings, it’s relatively small. The Chen Zhi case alone reportedly involves around 127,000 BTC. At current market prices, that represents tens of billions of dollars in potential supply. That kind of inventory can remain an oveBOME rose about 12.5%, with trading volume expanding to 3.3 times the median of the past 8 days, and contract open interest increased by about 32% over 24 hours. The price has approached the intraday high.
As of 18:18 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.0010806, with a 24-hour high of $0.0010839 and a low of $0.0009325, intraday volatility about 16.2%, and trading volume around $1 million.
OKEx hourly statistics show an open nominal value of about $3.03 million, increasing about 4.8% in the last hour; the current funding rate is 0.005%. Price and open interest are rising in sync, but longs are still paying near normal rates. My judgment is that this rally has new leverage following it, but there is temporarily no high-rate chasing.
The easiest misjudgment is to treat a neutral funding rate as a safety cushion. If the price breaks above $0.0010839 but the growth rate of open interest slows, it indicates turnover is digesting; if it falls below the median range of about $0.0010082 while open interest remains high, new leverage may amplify the pullback.
$BOME SOL dropped to around 115, with an intraday low of 114. After the 120 whole number support was completely broken, the decline accelerated, making it the second largest drop among major cryptocurrencies. 114 is the nearest support level currently; breaking below it could see a drop to 112. On the upside, regaining 118 is necessary to have a chance to stabilize around 120. However, there is a positive development for SOL today that has been overshadowed by the price drop: The Solana Foundation announced an institutional-grade trade settlement plan aimed at reducing institutional trade settlement times to the second level, with JPMorgan Chase providing advisory input for the project—this type of settlement infrastructure involving leading financial institutions represents one of the most substantial progressions for SOL in terms of institutional adoption, constituting a medium-term narrative rather than a short-term catalyst. SOL's funding rate returned to a positive 0.00210% today, the highest among the top five mainstream coins, indicating that bulls have not completely exited despite the continuous decline. A 9.45% increase is not reinforcing the load-bearing wall; it’s just applying a layer of reflective glass on the facade—I’m going to dismantle this layer today.
A 9.45% surge within 24 hours has pushed the current price to 0.0(5)2941, leaving only a 0.44% clearance from the 4-hour Bollinger upper band at 0.0(5)2954. This is called a "top casting" on the blueprint: the formwork hasn’t been removed, but the concrete has no room to rise. The 1-hour RSI has climbed to 67.19, the daily RSI is 60.71, and two main beams are simultaneously approaching their bending limits—I won’t sign off on this structure.
The real load is fully pressing down below. The 1-hour lower band is at 0.0(5)2651, while the current price is suspended 9.9% above it, and this 9.45% itself is a cantilever without support—without a sufficiently consolidated foundation through turnover, the longer the cantilever, the greater the deflection. My entry point at 0.0(5)3154 is 7.24% above the current price and 6.8% above the 4-hour upper band; that’s the position of the rooftop parapet, where the last wave of buyers must stand.
My operational logic never chases highs nor casually drills holes in the floor slab; I wait for it to pull back to the design level before starting work.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.0(5)3154 (current price +7.24%)
Take Profit 1: 0.0(5)2547 (-19.25%)
Take Profit 2: 0.0(5)2617 (-17.03%)
Stop Loss: 0.0(5)3527 (+11.83%)
The first target at 0.0(5)2547 is about 2.7% below the 4-hour lower band at 0.0(5)2617; that’s the old foundation layer, a cushion formed by historical transactions, stable on landing. The second target at 0.0(5)2617 sits right on the 4-hour lower band, closing cleanly without extra decoration. The stop loss at 0.0(5)3527 is set 11.83% above the structural high point; that’s my reserved seismic joint—once crossed, it means I misjudged the building height, and I’ll exit immediately without argument.
RSI 67.19 is not a strength indicator; it’s the last photo of completion with the formwork still supporting and the rebar already exposed. #coinmovealert#ETH
Review of yesterday's forecast: minimum dip to 2591, current price 2613 indicated the decline is not over, there is an oversold rebound possibility in the evening, support below is seen at 2565, 4-hour cycle will continue to oscillate repeatedly, no one-time bottoming
Market fulfilled✅
Last night hit a new low again at 2538, current price returned near 2566
Short-term resistance range 2600-2631, rebound faces pressure here, continue to short following the trend.
Long-term cycle logic: 3-day MACD needs a high-level pullback to zero line, the downtrend is not finished yet
Key long-term support range 2300-2431, if price reaches this range, it is an opportunity to gradually build long positions Brothers and sisters, I’m a PhD. A question I often see is: Can crypto consistently make money? The reality is that there’s no guaranteed formula for profits. The biggest mistake is expecting to get rich overnight. A more sustainable approach is to manage expectations, understand your risk, and build a strategy that matches your financial situation. For larger portfolios, the focus should generally be on disciplined accumulation of established assets like BTC, rather than constantly chasing shorBTC is back near 83,000, and ETH has also dropped badly. The market finally stopped pretending and made a big move.
A few days ago, every rise was said to mean the bull market was still ahead, but now with two down K-lines, it suddenly went quiet as if the internet was cut off. The market is playing people like dogs, dropping a month's gains in 3 days.
Honestly, at this level, I don't think it's the end of the world for BTC, but there's really no need to rush in and catch the falling knife.
The market's best trick is to give you a little hope, then conveniently sweep your stop losses. Can ETH reach 3000 this year? Can we still have a good year?
I'm not guessing the bottom anymore.
Last time I guessed the bottom, I only got halfway up the mountain. #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC $ETH 4 hours: The declining wave C of 4696 has entered the final stage. Focus on the extension structure of C-5 to determine whether it is a three-wave or five-wave pattern. The first rebound target is 4280.
1 hour: The 5th wave decline at 4226 follows an extended structure. Pay attention to the rebound structure and time cycle at 4066. Watch 4184 above and 4066 below. If it follows a five-wave structure with a new low, the target range is 4040-30.
30 minutes: Breaking above 4184 indicates a three-wave structure, with 4066 as a temporary bottom. Breaking below 4066 indicates a five-wave structure, with the 4040-30 range continuing upward to look for a rebound at 4280.$XAU The market is crashing, and this giant whale is swapping BTC for USDC
In the past 9 hours, an ancient whale sold 3,000 BTC through HyperLiquid, exchanging them for 363.9 million USDC.
He still holds 46,765 BTC, valued at 5.73 billion. This sale is just a small portion.
But the action itself is worth noting. He had been swapping BTC for ETH before, now he has switched to swapping BTC for USDC. ETH is a risk asset, USDC is a safe-haven asset. This shift from ETH to USDC indicates a change in his short-term market outlook.
Today BTC fell below 83,000, with 709 million liquidated in 24 hours, 647 million from long positions, and 122,000 traders wiped out. Retail investors are being liquidated, while he is converting coins into stablecoins.
It's not panic, it's risk aversion. It's not liquidation, it's adjustment.
He still holds 46,000 BTC; whether he will sell more next is unknown. But a person holding 5.7 billion worth of BTC starting to swap for USDC at least shows he thinks the current market needs some cash on hand.
Do you think he's swapping for USDC to hedge risk or preparing to bottom-fish elsewhere? Discuss in the comments.
The above is based on on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $NEAR is up 8.2% with open positions expanding, while $BTC and $ETH remain stuck in weaker zones. Current prices: • $BTC: ~$83,009 • $ETH: ~$2,572 • $NEAR: ~$5.364 NEAR is clearly outperforming, while BTC and ETH are down around 1.2% and 1.4%. For BTC, price remains below the 1H EMA20 at $83,465, while positions have increased 1.7%. Price is falling as leverage rises, suggesting fresh longs are still facing pressure. The key intraday low is $82,650; a break below could open the door toward $82,0【On-Chain Trading Update｜HYPE】
Monitored address 0x9d95 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $86.68
▪ Transaction amount this time: $31,699.42
▪ Leverage: 7x
Do you think opening a long at this position is too early?It's the same with Ethereum, but due to weakening spot inflows, yesterday's decline was almost twice that of Bitcoin! Because of different capital preferences, the support strength is obviously weaker. Facing the same macro instability, it has resulted in a different situation.
Or it can be simply understood as leverage clearing; after Bitcoin stops stacking, Ethereum has the chance to show a stronger rebound.
It should be noted that Ethereum is still weaker compared to Bitcoin currently, so there's no need to enter the market simultaneously at the recent low point.The mechanism is not a bottom line; implementation is the clue.
The key to $INJ's buyback and burn is not the word "burn" itself, but whether the ecosystem revenue can continuously exchange for tokens. Revenue growth drives participation, and supply contraction carries more weight; however, a roughly 7.9% drop in 24 hours indicates that even with a supply mechanism, the market downturn must be faced. First, look at actual burns and price support; don't mistake long-term logic for short-term price defense.
$ARB dropped about 8.6% in a week and only rose about 7.8% in a month, showing a clear slowdown in momentum. Recovery takes time. If rebounds are always short and declines persist, it means buying interest has not yet recovered. Discussion volume cannot replace price response; continuing to wait requires new evidence.
$ZEC's NU7 reduces the target block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, but the daily issuance remains unchanged, so it cannot be understood as a reduction in new supply. The focus is on how much the user experience improves, as well as test results, mainnet deployment, and wallet and exchange platform adaptation. The Winklevoss-backed institution's application for a ZEC spot ETF can be a clue for expectations, but don't prematurely assume the plan's effects.
Burns, upgrades, and ETFs are all observation points, not guarantees. Wait for actual progress and price support to provide answers.$ETH is about to face a trial tonight, the first heavenly thunder is coming soon. Not sure how many strikes it can withstand; if it holds, it will ascend to immortality, if not, it will be ruined.
$BTC's correction isn't over yet; this time it's expected to drop below 80,000. The ambush orders are ready (if they don't get blasted).
$BCH was mentioned in previous articles that its bottom is around 280. Unfortunately, people can't have spare money; if they do, they show off and make reckless moves. Soon, you can pick up some cheap chips, but the U is all gone.
If this trial is passed successfully, it's better to do something easy, like raising chickens and collecting eggs.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049
Too lazy to take a new screenshot, so I'll use the last one. Last time was a small resistance order, this time a big resistance order. Have the smart kids figured out what's going on? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
US stock pre-market: Oil prices surge, index futures plunge, what are funds scheming before today's open?
Brothers, the pre-market situation today feels off.
First, look at the most eye-catching data: WTI crude oil up over 5%, Brent directly above 104. VIX fear index soared to 16.01, up more than 6 points. The three major stock index futures collectively turned negative, Dow futures once down over 400 points.
What are funds afraid of?
The oil price surge is not purely demand-driven. On one hand, the US and Iran are stirring trouble again, Trump said "no rush to sign an agreement"; on the other hand, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico directly shut down 25% of crude oil production capacity. When supply shrinks, inflation expectations immediately rise.
Then look at US Treasury yields still pushing higher, 10-year at 5.296%, 30-year at 5.62%. The Fed's September minutes are hawkish, most officials believe another rate hike is needed before year-end.
To translate: Oil price rise → Inflation expectations rise → Rate hike expectations strengthen → Interest rates up → Valuation cut.
So semiconductors fell first in pre-market, Micron down 1.52%, Hynix down 0.59%. Storage just recovered a bit yesterday, today macro factors pushed it back down.
Where is the money flowing?
Healthcare is one of the few bright spots today. Moderna is still rising pre-market, the passive buying from Nasdaq 100 inclusion hasn't finished yet. Defensive attributes plus strong catalysts, short-term funds are clustering. ETF inflows continue, so why is BTC falling?
This is where the market has been most prone to misjudgment recently.
Many people see continuous net inflows into ETFs and assume BTC should rise.
But ETF capital inflow ≠ guaranteed price increase.
Price is determined by marginal buy and sell orders, not a single funding channel.
In September, the US spot BTC ETF had net inflows of about $2.65 billion, indicating institutional demand still exists; however, the ETF inflow rate has clearly slowed recently, and there is noticeable selling pressure around $85,000–$85,500.
So the current issue for BTC is not "whether there is capital," but:
Can new buy orders continue to expand and absorb the supply above?
If ETFs keep flowing in but the price consistently fails to break resistance zones, it actually indicates ongoing profit-taking above.
The most dangerous aspect of this kind of market is that fundamentals appear strong, yet the price stubbornly refuses to break through.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC #跟着OKX打卡2049 $ZEC $ETH Ethereum has retraced more than 7% from the high of 2738 within four trading days, making it the steepest decline among major cryptocurrencies. 2538 is the current key support; if it breaks, the next level to watch is the 2500 round number. On the upside, ETH needs to first reclaim 2600 before discussing a recovery to 2650. Today, there is a fundamental change in ETH that must be acknowledged: Bitmine, under Tom Lee, announced it will stop purchasing ETH tokens. This institution was previously one of the most stable incremental buyers of ETH in the market. Its exit means the demand side loses a continuous buying force. Combined with the earlier surge of 392% in the validator exit queue, ETH is under pressure on both supply and demand fronts. Contract data is also unfavorable: long positions account for 76.7%, the highest among all, and ETH tops today's liquidation list. Bottom-fishing ETH requires more solid reasons than bottom-fishing BTC, and currently, such reasons are not visible.BTC script idea, from the naked K perspective, yesterday's daily K-line closed with a large bearish candle; and the large bearish candle was on high volume, having pierced the lower boundary line of the consolidation area.
This is the classic key point theory, where the price, after sufficient brewing, chooses a directional turning point, forming a new trend.
The red line is the top-bottom reversal level; when the price reaches this area, it will consolidate or slightly rebound, equivalent to a downtrend continuation; then it will further probe the green line stage.
All of the above conclusions are drawn from the naked K combined with volume-price relationship reactions; the analysis only represents personal views, there is no holy grail in this market, only increasing probabilities, and this article does not provide any investment advice.The Federal Reserve is very likely not to raise interest rates in October, but the cost of borrowing is still rising.
Last night, there was a rare divergence in U.S. Treasury bonds:
① 2-year at 4.77%, down 2 basis points. The market is betting on "no rate hike," with CME's probability of no hike in October at 80.6%.
② 30-year at 5.67%, up 3 basis points. The 10-year intraday touched 5.364%, the highest since 2002.
③ The transmission has already landed: U.S. 30-year mortgage rates rose from 7.30% to 7.49% in one week.
Mortgage applications dropped 4.2%, and August consumer credit growth slowed from 4.1% to 1.9%.
Short-term bets are on "no rate hike," but long-term prices are rising. This is not an increase in rate hike expectations; it's that long-term capital demands higher returns.
$BTC is currently 82,638, down 1.21% in 24h; $ZEC at 1,212, down 7.38%.
Liquidation pressure is cooling: 353 million in 24 hours, 41.92% less than the same time yesterday.
But long positions still account for 85.6%, with 89,805 people liquidated. The largest single liquidation was on Binance, a $BTC single order of 11.82 million.
This week, I’m only watching one number: when the 30-year yield stops rising.
If it doesn’t turn back, the valuation of risk assets will continue to be suppressed.
With long-term rates continuing to rise, or your own leverage not yet cleared—which are you more afraid of now?
$BTC $ETH #USTreasury #Macro
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.BTC: Holding above $82,500 with increased volume + ETF net inflows for 2-3 consecutive days, light long positions can be tried, stop loss below $82,000, target $83,800-$84,500. If the daily close breaks below $82,500, do not catch the falling knife; wait for $80,000-$81,000 to assess support strength.
ETH: Current odds are not as good as BTC. ETF systematic withdrawal, $2,511 is the short target, with $1.35 billion long liquidations concentrated below. The value of ETH lies in oversold rebounds, which is short-term speculation, not a portfolio logic. Try light long positions at $2,540-$2,550, stop loss at $2,530, first take profit at $2,590, second take profit at $2,620. #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ 【Exchange｜OKX Launches Pre-IPO OURA USD X-Perp】
OKX announced on October 7: launching OURAUSD UM (X-Perp), based on the unlisted Oura, USD-settled expiry contracts, holding no equity, only trading valuation fluctuations; pricing ≈ share price × total shares outstanding (about 321 million shares), gradually converting to standard stock X-Perp after IPO. Risks: IPO timing uncertain, price may deviate from listing price, platform can settle autonomously.
Current price about $48.95 (Beijing 18:40, OKX); OKB about 126.8 USDT; BTC about $82,632 (Coinbase). See attached chart for trend.
My view: This is OKX turning Pre-IPO valuation trading into a product line, following the same path as tokenized US stocks and ICE joint ventures. Thin liquidity, high volatility, not to be treated as actual stock; first confirm if the region is open.
This does not constitute investment advice. Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.57%, with the first-level pair scale about $993; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 10%.
The $SOL mark spread is positive, but the first-level buy near sell far quote is already inverted. The mark near-far spread is +0.43%, while the first-level buy near sell far quote spread is -0.81%.On Thursday, what should be done after the weak downward continuation?
The key support at 82500 mentioned earlier has been broken. The nearly 4000-point drop in this round has not seen significant recovery. The short-term support level has been broken, overall volume is weak, and the short-term trend has shifted from bullish to bearish. There was no strong rebound today. There is no good entry point for short positions. If the US stock market opens with a certain rebound strength, short positions can be entered!
Operation suggestion: short near 83800, watch 82500 and 81500. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC Not afraid of sharp rises or falls, just afraid of slow declines and slow rises, endlessly. BTC has been stuck between 82163 and 83300 all day. Will it rise or fall? Can we get a clear answer? Personally, I'm bullish; this correction is basically in place. Even if 82163 is the low point, it won't rally immediately. Most likely, it will move sideways for a while before rallying.
There are no obvious negative factors outside, and 82000 is a major daily support, so it's not easy to break. Even if it can't reach 87300, it should at least rebound once. If it keeps falling without even a rebound, bulls won't get on board, so who will the bears play with? $ETH $SOL $BTC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ Day 178 of live trading, crude oil $CL surged. I predicted yesterday that crude oil still has another wave of increase; this is just the beginning. As long as it holds tonight, crude oil is expected to rise significantly.
I am a major short seller of crude oil, with large funds holding long-term short positions, but I know there will be another wave of increase, so I opened long positions in advance for hedging.
This position has been held for many days, and today I see results. I will add to the position again when the timing is right. The short-term rise in crude oil is the main trend. When it reaches the peak, I can add short positions.
$BZ $USO
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 BTC's drop this time may not be because no one is buying, but because "money is too expensive."
Recently, global long-term bond yields have collectively surged, with the US 10-year Treasury yield once approaching 5.36%, and the 30-year near 5.7%; the UK's 30-year yield also broke through 6%, clearly raising the cost of long-term capital.
Behind this are two factors: rising oil prices + warming inflation expectations.
Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100, and the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes also show that most officials consider another rate hike this year appropriate. The market has repriced rate cut expectations, with the dollar and long-term yields strengthening together, naturally putting pressure on risk assets.
BTC couldn't hold up either, repeatedly hitting resistance near $87,000 and falling back to around $83,000. On October 7, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $485 million, and the funding side has clearly weakened in the short term.
So the current issue is not "whether BTC has a story," but that global capital costs are becoming more expensive.
In the short term, watch for support at $83,000; only a rebound above $85,000 will ease the pressure.
If long-term bond yields don't cool down, it will still be difficult for BTC to break out into a one-sided rally. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 #霍尔木兹风险升级，短期能源供应仍有缓冲 $BTC $ETH Never, ever try to catch the bottom
Don't think Bitcoin should rise just because it dropped 5000 points
This is absolutely a wrong perception and behavior
Also, I’m giving you 30 million
When it drops, go long
When it rises, go short — how many times has this logic caused your liquidation, can you still remember?
This time, the downward trend corresponds to the US government transferring out Bitcoin + BNB + USDT totaling over 770 million USD, causing selling pressure
At the same time, yesterday Bitcoin ETF spot net outflow was 484.9 million USD
Ethereum ETF spot net outflow was 160.9 million USD
Originally, before selling, this was just a transfer
Why does the market react even without selling?
It's simple,
Retail investors rush to stop loss and flee early, afraid to be caught in the selling pressure
Institutions directly withdraw, actively reducing positions to avoid risk
Contract longs concentrate on liquidation, causing a stampede that amplifies the drop
So the coins haven't been sold yet, but the price has already dropped first
All to avoid risk
The market is currently just digesting the selling expectations
Our 86,000 short position still holds 70% of the base position, target remains 79,500-79,000, stop loss moved to 85,500 USD unchanged, worst case is profitable stop loss exit
Completely control long positions, do not touch above 80,000 on the left side $ADA
After the ADA pullback, it is recovering the mid-range. How much of the rebound needs to be retained to be meaningful?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 0.2486—0.2658 USDT, change -3.05%, trading volume about 10.94 million USDT.
The quote has recovered about half of the range above the low point, indicating that buyers have somewhat recovered, but net gains are still negative. The sustainability of the recovery depends on the next retest; a reversal cannot be confirmed based on just one upward move.
If the midpoint is quickly lost and the low is broken again, the rebound is interpreted as a weakening; if the retest holds and gradually moves into the upper half of the range, the stability assessment is improved.The official $TRUMP rules clearly state that eligibility for the banquet depends on the time-weighted holdings from October 5 to November 12, with the top 185 qualifying for the banquet and the top 29 also receiving VIP reception. In other words, this mechanism itself may create phased holding demand for $TRUMP.
But there is a very important risk here:
This does not necessarily mean there will be a price surge on November 22.
Past market performance for similar events has been unstable, and currently, the trading enthusiasm for $TRUMP is clearly lower than when it was first issued in 2025. Recent reports also indicate that the project team continues to maintain holder engagement through the banquet, F1, and a new round of events.
If you are planning to trade $TRUMP in waves,
I would instead focus on the November 12 node.
Because:
October 5 → November 12:
To compete for banquet eligibility → phased buying may occur.
November 12:
Rankings are finalized → some funds may start taking profits.
November 12 → November 22:
Market hype around the "Trump Banquet" story → may trigger another event-driven rally.
After November 22:
If there are no new major positive developments, there is a typical "Buy the rumor, sell the news" risk.
Additionally, there is inherent uncertainty in the current U.S. political and crypto regulatory environment.