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BTC and other catalysts, ETH and other cleansings, SOL relies on internal drive to hold firm
$BTC: Stuck in a range, unable to move. The funding side is torn—institutional ETFs are continuously buying, but retail incremental funds have not kept up, two forces moving in opposite directions. Funding rates are neutral to slightly negative, shorts are paying to hold positions, indicating the price is not being propped up by leveraged longs. Glassnode characterizes this wave as "speculative and lacking real trading volume support." Short-term logic for BTC: waiting for a catalyst to break the deadlock.
$ETH: Moving averages are extremely converged, holding costs tend to be consistent, usually signaling a sharp one-sided market. But retail long positions account for as high as 73%, which is crowded trading. Smart money long-short ratio is only 1.55, far from aggressive. Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $114 million last week. Short-term logic for ETH: technicals are consolidating, but retail longs are too crowded, needing a cleansing before advancing.
$SOL: The funding side is the most solid. Spot ETFs had a record weekly net inflow, institutions are systematically building positions through compliant products. On-chain Meme activity is lively, with projects returning 33% of holder rewards back to the ecosystem, forming a positive cycle of "traffic-liquidity-lockup." Short-term logic for SOL: institutions are supporting the bottom, ecosystem is locking stakes, structure is the most stable.
All three coins are waiting, but for different things. Understand clearly what each coin needs.Good morning, genius traders. BTC reclaimed $86,440 last night, rising nearly 2% to return above 86K, with an intraday range of 84,700 to 86,640. Nonfarm payrolls sharply dropped to 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and the market cut the October rate hike probability from 70% to 37%, fully embracing dovish expectations. But don’t get carried away: the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East is still closed, Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco facilities, oil prices broke above 103 again, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains at 5.28%. Watch the technical levels closely—resistance above at 89,110, then 92,600; support below at 83,920, and breaking 80,500 would be truly dangerous. RSI at 64 is still in the bullish zone, fear and greed not below 70. Today, the key is whether 86.5K can hold; if not, expect a pullback to 84K to consolidate. $BTC #星球日报 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 In October, the crypto market is entering a wave of token unlocks, with HYPE and ENA becoming key focus points.
According to data, multiple projects will have token unlocks in the coming week, with the unlock scale of HYPE and ENA drawing the most market attention:
ENA will unlock approximately $41.51 million in tokens on October 5, accounting for 1.88% of circulating supply; HYPE will unlock about $339 million in tokens on the same day, accounting for 1.69% of circulating supply; AERO, MOVE, LINEA, IO, and APT will also have unlocks of varying scales subsequently.
From a market impact perspective, unlocking does not necessarily mean a price drop; the key is whether the newly unlocked tokens enter market circulation.
HYPE deserves special attention. Although the unlock amount is as high as $339 million, it only accounts for 1.69% of circulating supply. If core holders remain optimistic about ecosystem development, selling pressure may be lower than market expectations. However, large unlocks often increase short-term psychological pressure on funds, making early trading and profit-taking more likely.
For ENA, attention should be paid to competition in the stablecoin sector. The current unlock scale accounts for nearly 2% of circulating supply, which may bring some short-term supply pressure, but long-term prospects still depend on Ethena protocol revenue and USDe growth.
From a trading perspective:
HYPE: Focus on fund movements before and after the unlock; if the price pullback does not break key support, it may become an opportunity for funds to reposition;
ENA: Watch for volume-increasing declines after the unlock; if selling pressure is fully released, it could instead present a buying opportunity;
Projects like APT, MOVE, IO with higher circulating supply ratios require caution against short-DOGE bulls:
The important question isn’t whether DOGE can pump. It’s whether buyers can sustain the move after the first breakout.
Meme season can move extremely fast.
DOGE remains one of the biggest liquidity magnets in the meme market. #DOGE📈 BREAKING: Bitcoin Just Printed Its Highest Weekly Close in Over 8 Months
BTC closed the week near $86,480, its best since January. It's about 50% off the June low, and Q3 closed up nearly 43%, the best third quarter since 2017.
Price broke the May high at $82.8K on the weekly, but sellers still sit around $87K, with heavy supply at $90K to $98K.
Weekly closes above $82.8K keep the bull case alive.
$90K next, or another $87K rejection?
Not financial advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ETH 4h long, RSI 60.2 mid-level; 1h RSI 71.6 high, MACD upward
Range: 2698–2703 (1h pullback zone), currently above range, waiting for pullback
Timing: Above range is high, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends when target reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target: 2777
Invalidation: Break below 2682
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Enter only after pullback
$DOGE slightly weak 4h long, RSI 59.3 high; 1h RSI 70.4 high, MACD downward
Range: 0.0942–0.0946 (1h pullback zone), currently above range, waiting for pullback
Timing: Above range is high, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends when target reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target: 0.0979
Invalidation: Break below 0.0938
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Enter only after pullback
For analysis only, not advice or order instruction.The tug-of-war between bulls and bears intensifies! The market hides liquidation risks for shorts!
$BTC has still maintained a net inflow of 1661.7377 BTC in the past 24 hours,
but compared to the previous day, the inflow intensity has dropped by 35.17%.
Funds are still entering, but incremental buying power is clearly weakening.
BTC current price is $86,400.
Above, $87,700 is the concentrated liquidation zone for shorts, closer to the current price.
A slight 1.5% rise will trigger a batch of short liquidations.
Below, $82,700 is the concentrated liquidation zone for longs with high leverage.
Looking at $ETH, a giant whale has heavily shorted 78,000 ETH.
The average opening price is $2,340, currently floating at a loss of $30.29 million.
This short's liquidation price is $4,291, leaving a lot of room above.
ETH current price is $2,729.78.
Above, $2,798 is the short liquidation zone; a 2.5% rise will trigger a short squeeze.
Below, $2,559 is the concentrated liquidation zone for longs.
Whether BTC or ETH, the short liquidation points above are closer to the current price,
meaning if the market moves upward, it can easily trigger a short squeeze rally.
However, BTC's fund inflow intensity is weakening, and the bulls lack momentum.
The market is in a typical choppy tug-of-war, with liquidation pressure on both sides.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Last night I was thinking that if BTC stayed sideways, I would open a short position. Luckily, I didn't act on it, or I would have been crying this morning.
I was so close to blowing up. You really can't trade recklessly in this kind of market. When it's sideways, I complain it's not moving; when it rises, I'm afraid of missing out. This back-and-forth usually starts right here.
$BTC rose to 86,600 in the morning session. I'm bullish but want to wait for a pullback around 85,000 to catch it before considering the next move. The next target is 87,000; if it breaks through and holds, then I can be more confident.
$ETH I’m looking at 2,700. If it holds, then watch 2,750-2,800. If it falls back, then take it slow. Don’t just jump in because many are going long.
$ZEC I’m watching for support at 1,300 and then observing if it can hold at 1,350. The number of bulls and bears is close, so it’s hard to tell if it will rally immediately. But I’m more worried about the whales starting to dump, pushing it down against the market.
Today I’m not rushing to trade; I’ll see if there’s a pullback. In this unpredictable market, controlling your own actions is the most important.🌑 How to view this morning's market: all three major cryptos are in the red, who will rebound first, platform coins are the most stable
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
$SOL 119.55, the most resilient among the three major cryptos. It didn't hold 120 but didn't fall much either; the foundation of on-chain NFT and DeFi inflows remains. 115 is the strong bottom; if it holds 120 this week, expect 125. If BTC holds 84000, SOL will move first.
$HYPE 88.791, grinding down from 90.8 to 88.8. The foundation of 97% protocol revenue buybacks is there; 88 is repeatedly tested support. If it holds 90 this week, a catch-up rally will come; if not, it will fall back to 85. Don't add or cut, just wait.
$BTC 84814, pulled back from 86868 to 84800, but ETF inflows have resumed. 85000 has turned from resistance to support; if the meeting minutes are dovish this week, a surge to 87000 is not a dream.
$ETH 2679, dropped from 2755 to 2679. BTC is seeing inflows but ETH is seeing outflows; funds are selective in buying. 2650 is support; if held, it will consolidate; if broken, it will fall back to 2600. ETH is half a step weaker than BTC.
$OKB 120.04, following the market pullback but with limited decline. High locked positions and continuous buybacks; 120 has held for a long time. The previous high of 142 is still some distance away; platform coins are more resistant than altcoins when the market falls.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 DVT reduces single points of failure but also increases coordination complexity
Distributed Validator Technology splits a single validation duty among multiple nodes, jointly completing proofs through threshold signatures. When a minority of nodes go offline, the remaining participants can continue working, so a single machine or operator no longer determines overall availability. It is suitable for staking structures that want to disperse risk across regions and teams, and it also reduces the impact of single-point key leaks.
However, DVT is not simply four ordinary nodes combined. Members need to exchange messages, keep clocks and states synchronized, and correctly configure thresholds and member changes. Network latency or version incompatibility may cause everyone to be online but unable to form signatures in time, and incorrect key ceremonies can leave long-term risks. $ETH validation has strict time limits, so coordination costs must be realistically measured.
Evaluating a DVT solution should consider whether different members are truly independent, whether the control plane is still controlled by a single entity, how malicious minority nodes are isolated, and whether collective outages can be avoided during upgrades. Distributed design replaces single-point risks with protocol and collaboration risks; only when the latter are thoroughly tested will overall security improve. Increasing the number of nodes alone does not equal decentralization.On October 11th, there was a big drop, and many people cut losses and left the market. But this week on OKX Planet, I earned 2300U in content incentives by posting. It wasn't from trading profits. It was earned from posting. OKX Planet has a creator incentive program, allocating nearly 100,000 USDT monthly to reward quality content creators, with weekly settlements directly credited to your funding account. I actually operated for a week and figured out a few of the most effective methods, which I’m sharing fully today. 1. First, understand what the traffic algorithm favors The recommendation algorithm on OKX Planet heavily favors trading-related content—market analysis, live trading sharing, strategy ideas, position/profit-loss cards, project research. Posts strongly related to trading have the highest weight and are naturally more likely to be recommended. A negative example is accounts that purely repost Twitter content; reposted posts have significantly reduced weight and are far less favored than original posts on the Planet. 2. This week, I gained the largest traffic boost from QNT At the end of September, QNT surged 178% in one week. The Clearing House chose Quant to provide technical support for its on-chain currency initiative, pushing QNT from $90 directly up to $357. OKX launched a 50x leverage perpetual contract for QNT on October 1st. I immediately posted on the Planet with a core structure: → Highlight the event in 1-2 sentences (OKX launched QNT contract) → Attach a screenshot of my position card → Provide my judgment and take-profit/stop-loss levels → Add the $QNT token tag at the end This post 48 Lessons from new DEX coins (24)
FUSE shows signs of accumulation, recommended to buy on dips, do not chase highs. This morning I reduced my position at 0.000025, then after observing the market, added at 41, resulting in a short-term loss.
Chips are concentrating rapidly, with a narrative and revenue burn. Sixteen years, just waiting for a "good enough" price
In September, a quiet commotion appeared on-chain. 5,419 $BTC, 94 transfers, totaling $457 million, woke up from addresses dormant for more than a decade. On September 6, 1,620 moved first; wallets from 2016 released 1,556, addresses from 2013 sent out 888, and there were 57 transactions from coins dormant for twelve to sixteen years.
Their cost is almost legendary: mined in 2010, nearly zero; bought in 2013, only a few dozen dollars. Now near 84,000, any sale feels like exchanging time for astronomical numbers.
But this is not panic selling, more like an orderly exit. After $BTC surged past 86,000, the 84,000–85,000 range became the densest holding zone for long-term holders. Veteran players don’t need to sell at the peak; they just want a "good enough" price.
So, don’t just ask if the bull market is still on. The real question is: when someone who has held for sixteen years is slowly passing the chips to you, do you see the same future they see?
$ETH is also riding the same tide.
This observation is based solely on on-chain data and does not constitute trading advice.0.16%, I actually thought about going all in to bet everything on Dogecoin, brothers, am I crazy?
Staring at the account, my heart is pounding. $BCH and $SOL are really making money for me like their lives depend on it, but a 0.16% margin ratio makes me afraid to even breathe hard.
Position update:
BCH: The true war god! Full position 10X, entry 261.02, mark 318.71, unrealized profit +179.69U, ROI as high as +180.89%! $BCH SOL: The most stable player on the field! Full position 20X, entry 115.63, mark 121.47, unrealized profit +154.40U, ROI +96.16%. $SOL
$ETH: Finally performed well once, full position 5X, entry 2718.24, mark 2725.76, unrealized profit +6.11U (+1.38%), just broke even.
To be honest: the three orders combined have about 340U unrealized profit, and the returns are all in the green. But looking at the overall margin ratio of 0.16%, it really feels like dancing on the devil’s desk! Even the slightest tiny spike could wipe out this 340U profit and principal instantly.
I’m really fed up with waking up startled in the middle of the night every day! Suddenly a crazy idea popped into my head — just clear all these positions and go all in on Dogecoin (DOGE)!
The reason is simple: $DOGE is purely an emotional asset. Once the US market sentiment recovers, Doge’s volatility is always the strongest! Since I’m walking a tightrope every day, why not lock in all the profits, clear the positions, and start fresh to chase a big pump in Dogecoin!
But reason is slapping me hard: I finally earned nearly double on BCH and SOL, and the 0.16% life-or-death margin line hasn’t liquidated me yet. If I chase DOGE now and buy at a high point and get stuck, wouldn’t this “living on the edge” story be written for nothing?
Brothers, my hands are shaking badly now. Should I clear all positions with one click and switch everything to Dogecoin? Do you think it’s still possible to get on board Doge now? Hurry up and wake me up with some harsh words in the comments, or just give me a straightforward answer! #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Recent Event Summary｜BTC / ETH / ZEC Market Analysis + Price Movement Forecast
Core Recent Events Overview
1. US September Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise: Only 29,000 new jobs added, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wages declined, market sharply lowered expectations for further Fed rate hikes.
2. Besent's Statement: US Treasury yields rising is a global trend
This dispelled the "US sovereign debt default, buying BTC as a safe haven" bullish narrative; the market returned to the logic of high interest rate suppression, with yields rising simultaneously in Europe and Japan, tightening global liquidity.
3. BTC and ETH Spot ETFs Both Outflowing
Institutional fund enthusiasm cooled, no longer continuously entering with large amounts; ETF funds are an important support for this rebound, continued outflows will limit upside potential.
4. Fed and ECB September Meeting Minutes to be Released Soon
Focus on officials' statements: whether to continue hawkish stance maintaining high rates, or acknowledge weakening employment signaling the tightening cycle is near its end. Hawkish = bearish for crypto; dovish signaling rate cuts = bullish.
5. Middle East Geopolitical Disturbances
The situation pushes oil prices up, raising global inflation expectations, indirectly constraining Fed rate cuts, representing a latent bearish risk for risk assets.
Impact Analysis by Coin
BTC (Market Benchmark)
Nonfarm data is positive, but Besent's remarks + ETF fund outflows offset some bullish momentum.
• If minutes are hawkish: high rate expectations re-strengthen, BTC under pressure to pull back;
• If minutes signal dovishness: dual drivers of nonfarm + dovishness trigger a rebound;
ETH (More Volatile than BTC)
Follows the market, with greater volatility than BTC.
ETF outflows hurt ETH more; if the market pulls back, ETH falls more than BTC; if a rebound occurs, ETH's rise will be stronger than BTC.
ZEC (Privacy Small Cap)
Double pressure:
1) Macro level, small caps have higher beta, ZEC falls most sharply when the market drops; rebounds with strongest elasticity.
2) Global yield rise, tightening regulatory expectations in Europe and the US, privacy coins face ongoing regulatory suppression; even if the market rebounds, ZEC's upside ceiling is limited.
Three Scenario Forecasts (Short-term Range)
Scenario 1 (Highest Probability): Neutral minutes, no clear hawk/dove
Market digests weak nonfarm data, suppressed by high US Treasury yields, oscillating with a weak bias
• BTC: -2% ~ +2%
• ETH: -3.5% ~ +2.5%
• ZEC: -5% ~ +3%
Scenario 2 (Low Probability Bullish): Minutes signal dovishness
Officials acknowledge weakening employment, hinting at stopping further hikes, US Treasury yields decline
• BTC: +2% ~ +5%
• ETH: +3% ~ +7%
• ZEC: +4% ~ +9%, highest elasticity but prone to pullback after surge.
Scenario 3 (Low Probability Bearish): Hawkish minutes
Emphasize inflation risks, retain possibility of further hikes, US Treasury yields surge again
• BTC: -4% ~ -7%
• ETH: -6% ~ -10%
• ZEC: -8% ~ -14%, heaviest selling pressure among small caps.
Subjective Comprehensive View
Nonfarm employment data gives the market a breather, but the two major issues of high US Treasury yields + ETF fund outflows remain unresolved, lacking conditions for sustained bullish advances.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 4000 $ETH, 10.79 million USD, moved into Gemini 8 hours ago.
My first reaction when seeing this kind of news isn’t that he’s going to dump, but that I once did the same thing.
When transferring coins to an exchange, you pay fees, set a low sell price but don’t sell, and then wake up the next day to a rebound.
That feeling is even worse than losing money.
So now when I see others transferring coins into exchanges, I don’t immediately shout sell.
Moving coins to an exchange doesn’t equal selling; there’s still the step of "whether to sell at this price or not."
Frankly, with a volume of 10.79 million, if he really wanted to dump, the $ETH market would have reacted by now.
What I care more about is whether these 4000 coins will just sit there for the next few days or be gradually moved out.
Looking at this single transaction alone, don’t scare yourself.
The real thing to panic about is never others transferring coins, but you trembling at the sight of a transfer.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $ETH Short sellers are being carried away, but a giant whale just voted with $8.85 million.
In the past 24 hours, the total short liquidations across the network reached $29.51 million, accounting for 83.77% of total liquidations, which is 5.2 times that of long liquidations.
BTC and ETH are the bloodiest battlegrounds today.
BTC climbed from a low of 84,675 to just hit a high of 86,777, up 1.55% in 24 hours, currently at 86,537. The 15-minute MACD maintains a golden cross, with DIFF at 275.9 and DEA at 271.6, indicating bullish momentum has not weakened. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations totaled $7.59 million, accounting for 73% of its total liquidations.
ETH rose from a low of 2,688 to a high of 2,739, up 1.07% in 24 hours, currently at 2,726. The MACD runs above the zero line, maintaining a complete bullish structure. Short liquidations reached $13.13 million, with a high proportion of 94%.
Traders betting on a decline are being carried away one by one.
But while shorts are being squeezed, the chain shows completely opposite activity.
According to on-chain analyst monitoring, a whale address apparently sold ETH at an average price of $2,709 a week ago, and now has re-established a position at an average price of $2,695. Four hours ago, it withdrew 3,283.56 ETH from OKX, worth $8.85 million. The amount bought far exceeds its previous deposit of 1,099 ETH.
It sold too early and bought back at a lower price. Moreover, the position has tripled.
Even giant whales can miss out, but this one did not hesitate and corrected its judgment with real money. This is not a simple buy low and sell high; withdrawing tokens from an exchange to a self-custody wallet usually indicates a long-term holding intention.
Shorts are being liquidated, whales are withdrawing tokens. At the same time, two completely opposite actions are happening.
Here is the direct strategy:
If BTC holds above 86,500, look for short liquidations between 87,000 and 88,000; if it pulls back but does not break 85,500, continue holding; breaking below 85,000 indicates the upward momentum has faded, and longs should exit first.
If ETH holds between 2,700 and 2,720, the accumulation logic remains; breaking below 2,680 means this position building is short-term. The key resistance for accelerated short covering is at 2,815; breaking through will trigger larger-scale short covering.
When liquidation data and on-chain withdrawals point in the same direction, a market shift has often already begun. You don’t need to be faster than the whale, but never hand over your chips when it is accumulating. 🛤️ BNB Is Riding the Rails Back to $800
Every dip since August has bounced off the same rising trendline: $600, $702, $752. Now BNB is at $796, right under the $807 September high.
A daily close above $807 breaks the weeks-long $746 to $807 box, with $820 and $850 next. Lose the trendline near $770 and $705 to $728 comes into play.
The 37th quarterly burn is expected mid-October, and BNB still sits about 42% below its 2025 record.
Break or bounce?
Not financial advice. $BNB $BTC $ETH MRVL has already surpassed the target prices set by Morgan Stanley, Piper, and Citibank, so on Tuesday, I chose not to chase after it.
Last Friday it closed at 272.29, up 1.57%, reaching 280 intraday before being pushed back down.
From the close of 251.90 on 9/28, it has risen about 8% in a week.
What I see: Marvell held an investor day in New York on Tuesday Eastern Time, and the market is waiting for new long-term targets.
Morgan Stanley expects it to set fiscal 2030 revenue above $40 billion, with a target price of 268.
Piper projects fiscal 2031 revenue around $45 billion, EPS close to $19, target price 270, and Citibank’s target is 275.
My view: The stock price is already standing at these target prices, so most of the good news has been priced in.
It opened high at 278 on Friday, surged to 280, but finally closed at 272; the daily candle is bearish, indicating selling pressure above 280.
For these fully priced-in presentations, the biggest risk is that the numbers only meet expectations.
What to do: Watch and don’t chase; only consider breaking and holding above 280 with volume before talking about previous highs. If it falls below about 257, this warming-up phase is over.
Do you think the investor day will ignite another rally or is the good news already fully priced in?
$MRVL $AVGO $NVDA
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #HYPE's 15 million and #PUMP's 9 million together amount to less than a quarter of the ETH position. This allocation indicates his highest confidence in ETH, while these two highly volatile assets are more like trial positions.
But trial positions are still positions. If the market moves against them, these positions will be liquidated first, which in turn will fuel an accelerated decline.$BTC ~$86,500 after a wild swing: spot ETFs flipped back to +$102.7M inflows on Oct 1, but the 9-day, $3.1B streak had just ended with $148.7M out. Meanwhile 40,000+ BTC left exchanges since Sept 22. Supply is moving, price is digesting. Your read?
$BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
ETH current price is about $2,693.72. The signals from derivatives positions do not indicate direction but rather an asymmetric liquidation map: the dense short liquidation zone above is closer to the current price, while the long liquidation zone below is slightly farther.
Looking up, $2,801.46 is the first short liquidation zone to watch, about 4% from the current price. If the price can effectively break through, short covering may become a short-term driving force, followed by observation points at $2,814.93 and $2,983.29 higher up. $BTC
Looking down, $2,559.03 corresponds to about a 5% pullback space, where some high-leverage long liquidation risks gather. If this area is broken, selling pressure may continue to seek liquidity at $2,478.22 and $2,323.33. $ETH
Currently, the trigger distance above is shorter than below, meaning if the price fluctuates upward, short liquidation pressure may appear earlier. But this is only a clue from position distribution, not a script for price rise or fall. The above levels are estimated based on public market prices and changes in open interest contracts, with no guarantee the price will reach them, nor do they constitute any directional prediction. $SOL 上午突破2720之后，价格在2739遇到阻力回落，现价回到2725附近。 现在4小时、6小时均线继续保持多头排列，MACD在零轴上方运行，趋势结构没有被破坏。日线级别价格稳稳站在所有主要均线上方，200日均线在2119附近远远托底，大方向没问题。但有个隐患：散户多空比2.76，73.4%的仓位押多头，这个拥挤度不低，历史上这种时候往往要先清洗一波止损才会继续走。 今天我就等两个位置： 第一种，回踩2710-2720企稳。 如果价格回到这里，能守住并重新站上2725，我会考虑轻仓接多。上方先看2745-2760，再看2778-2781这个前期阻力天花板。如果能带量突破2781，后面看2800-2825。 第二种，直接放量突破2740。 不追第一根，等突破后回踩不破2730-2735再跟。追突破最怕的就是假突破，一根针扫完止损就回落。 什么时候考虑空？ 如果价格冲到2745-2760一带明显滞涨，随后重新跌回2710下方，我才会当成假突破去看。否则现在直接空，等于和4小时、6小时甚至周线的方向对着干。 补充一句风险： 以太坊验证者退出队列最近暴涨了392%，峰值排队接近85万枚ETH，主要U.S. stocks sent out a risk signal last night, but $ETH still rose +1.2%
$ETH is currently at 2724.68, 24h +1.2%, first showing direction: bullish. Last night, a data point from U.S. stocks was quite alarming, but the crypto market stood firm and did not follow the decline — the correlation between the S&P 500 and the equal-weight index dropped to a historic low, with September's divergence becoming even more extreme at one point. The AI boom covered all the cracks. After the event, $ETH moved up from 2700.5 by +0.87%, the risk signal failed to suppress the market.
The market is in an offensive phase, neutral across multiple timeframes; I treat pullbacks as rotation opportunities.
Why am I confident to be bullish? The daily RSI at 63.9 is strong but not overbought; funding rate at 0.0001 is neutral, leverage is not crowded; fear and greed index at 70 shows heat but not extreme.
There is some noise in volume: 24h trading volume is 277,693,325 USDT, only 0.379 times the 30-day average volume. The volume contraction with price increase indicates few chasing buyers — a pullback that does not break support is actually a buying opportunity.
Resistance above: 2724
Support below: 2596 (daily MA30)
The strategy is simple: enter at the current price, cut losses if it breaks below 2596, add positions if it breaks and holds above 2724 with volume for extension. The divergence in U.S. stocks is intensifying, capital will eventually find an outlet, and $ETH's structure is stronger than sentiment this round. Follow me to stay on track for the next move.
$ETH $BTCBig brother Maji has shrunk his balance sheet again, cutting total exposure from 165 million to 152 million. Just caught this snapshot on-chain. But don’t rush to call him a coward—his focus is still firmly nailed on BTC and ETH, only leaving a small portion of thematic base positions to continue betting on elasticity.
Breaking it down: 474 BTC long positions, 40x full leverage, unrealized profit of 695,200, entry at 84,883, liquidation at 67,753; leverage is high but he left a long safety buffer; 35,000 ETH long positions, 25x full leverage, unrealized profit of 1,256,600, entry at 2,688, liquidation at 2,468, this is the heaviest weighted part of the entire portfolio; HYPE small position with 10x trial leverage, volume has already been squeezed to the edges, purely decorative.
From 190 million → 173 million → 165 million → now 152 million, steadily unloading, not admitting defeat or cutting direction, but continuously reducing firepower and defending core judgments.
A piercing truth: a true whale doesn’t rush every day; after identifying a big direction, they repeatedly reduce their weight to maximize endurance against volatility. He understands this market’s love for sudden spikes and grinding—holding a billion-level exposure with high leverage, only by continuously unloading some pressure can he survive to the final stage of the market and choose a side. $BTC To be honest, I myself think it's quite lucky this trade has survived until now. There’s a good amount of luck involved. Last night at dawn, I was watching $MEW closely; the support didn’t break, and there were buyers below, so I casually reminded not to panic on long positions—pullbacks are opportunities.
And it really delivered. Entered at 0.0005274, the highest touched 0.0005436, a floating profit of +61.05%. Those on board must be waking up smiling. The earlier part was really slow, but the outcome is truly sweet.
The market waits to be timed, profits come from holding.
Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking.
I’m taking 70% profit now, moving the protection of the remaining 30% to the cost price. If it keeps rising, let the profits run; if it falls back, don’t let the gains feel painful. For friends who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next signal before moving.
$XRP $ETH $QNT price is moving, but the volume hasn't confirmed the move, which is more worth watching than the 24-hour -3.83% change.
Let's break down this market into a conditional test:
Directional evidence: The current 1-hour volume is only 0.60 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars; both 1-hour and 4-hour volumes are weak. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support usually requires the next candle to confirm.
Positional evidence: Current price is 254.14, about 5.05% away from the 1-hour support at 241.31, and about 9.52% away from resistance at 278.34. Looking at both distances together is closer to the real risk than just focusing on a single up or down candle.
Next steps won't rely on guessing. My observation line is clear: reclaiming and holding above 278.34 means regaining short-term control; breaking below 241.31 shifts focus to the 4-hour support at 223.51. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 307 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
This is not hindsight justification: in the next round, I will continue to verify 278.34 and 241.31, recording when conditions are met and reviewing when they fail.
Do you trust the current direction more, or do you think the low volume will cause this move to be quickly reversed?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.$ZEC recently found a phase low near 1303 and began a rebound. On October 4, it closed at 1352.10, officially stabilizing above the key resistance level of 1355, recording a 3.58% gain for the day, with a high of 1368, forming a rare bullish reversal candle.
Reviewing the previous trend, ZEC continuously declined from a high of 1697.45, once dipping near 1279 where a large amount of selling pressure accumulated. This rebound was accompanied by an increased trading volume of 25,200 ZEC, with a turnover exceeding 33.68 million USDT, showing a volume-price coordinated recovery signal. Technically, the previously declining MACD green bars began to narrow, indicating a gradual release of bearish momentum. Holding above 1355 means the short-term trend has shifted from the prior decline to a more bullish consolidation. If this support holds, it is expected to test the previous high region above 1400.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 A short position that rose 300%, how is a floating loss of 400% calculated?
$PUMP rose from 0.0035 to around 0.0063.
It increased 22% in seven days and nearly 300% in 90 days.
What does this number mean:
A 50x full-position short, if the price moves 2% against you, the principal is gone.
A floating loss of 400% does not mean losing four times the principal; it means the lost amount has already exceeded the amount staked.
What I actually did:
Opened a short at 0.005846, now at 0.0063.
It surged once to 0.006601 but didn’t hold, then dropped back to 0.0063.
Those chasing longs see the pullback as an opportunity.
Short sellers think it’s overbought.
Both sides are waiting for the other to admit defeat first.
The price is stuck between 0.0060 and 0.0066.
Whoever breaks first will have their position liquidated by the system.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $PUMP $ETH is currently stuck oscillating around 2726. In the mid-to-long term, there are three differentiated scenarios:
First: Holding above 2760, capital rotation is in place to trigger a catch-up rally, directly challenging the previous high above 2800. This is a bullish signal; mid-to-long term longs can consider entering after stabilizing above 2760, with an upper target at 2880.
Second: Bitcoin remains strong, and Ethereum passively follows the rally, oscillating back and forth between 2690 and 2760, with bulls and bears tugging. In this case, avoid frequent trades to prevent being stopped out repeatedly.
Third: Bitcoin turns downward, dragging Ethereum to break down effectively below 2650. This reveals a mid-to-long term short opportunity, with further support retesting at 2540.
Personally, I lean towards the second oscillation pattern. Bitcoin continues to absorb market funds, while Ethereum lacks incremental inflows, making a sharp rally difficult. Chasing highs carries high risk; do not casually go long without breaking 2760; do not heavily short without breaking below 2650. Operating within the range risks being shaken out.
Follow your uncle here, don’t get fooled or suffer losses.
#ETH high-level range oscillation waiting for direction choiceThere is a market on Polymarket: Can Dogecoin reach $0.10 in October?
Right now, 77% of people bet "yes." Only 16% bet "it will fall below 0.05."
I saw this while having lunch, and my chopsticks paused for a moment. Not because the ratio is so high, but because every cent on this is a real money bet. Talking bearish costs nothing, but putting money down shows the truth. When it comes to putting money down, nearly 80% believe Dogecoin will break $0.10 this month.
This is the most genuine public opinion poll in the market. More honest than any analyst report, more weighty than any bearish talk in any group.
I sent this screenshot to the group, and the usually most pessimistic brother replied: "This time I trust the crowd." I told him: The crowd's eyes are sharp when they put their money down.
October has just begun, and the $0.10 gate, 77% of people bet it will open this month. Hold on, I'm standing with the crowd. $DOGE Today I can finally hold my head high! After enduring the darkest moments in the past few days, my account has experienced an epic turnaround. BTC has surged all the way, and NEAR, which tormented me before, has miraculously come out of the ICU.
$BTC (MVP of the market, completely leading the way)
Average holding price 84044, latest price 86420.
Unrealized profit 1410.11U, return rate 54.99%!
BTC is always the strongest backbone of my account! Steadily breaking through, profits have directly soared past 1400U, perfectly covering all previous trial-and-error costs. The defense line has been raised to 77341; as long as it doesn't break, let the profits run.
$SOL (Isolated margin war god, steady and winning)
Average holding price 117.41, latest price 121.09.
Unrealized profit 134.17U, return rate 60.78%. Margin rate 12.87%.
Still a proud isolated margin position! Not only securing a steady 60% profit but also perfectly isolating the risk from NEAR throughout.
$NEAR (Miraculous recovery, thrilling exit)
Average holding price 4.909, latest price 4.8990.
Unrealized loss 9.13U, return rate -4.08%.
It’s been so tough! A few days ago, I was losing over 100U in deep waters, but today I climbed back step by step, almost back to the cost line.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 Don't rush to switch positions; the real signal hasn't arrived yet.
The weekend market was very divided: $BTC seemed asleep, fluctuating narrowly; altcoins, however, took turns popping up, pulling this way and that, as if trying to seize control. Many see the altcoins' red charts and assume a style shift, hastily chasing gains and switching positions, afraid of missing the "bull market."
But think carefully: the main coin hasn't moved, and the smaller ones jump first—this is mostly not a new trend but existing funds looking for opportunities in certain areas. Without incremental liquidity, altcoin rallies feel more like emotional pulses—coming fast and fading fast. Those who chase often receive not a starting point but chips distributed by others.
I still treat BTC as the master switch. It sets the direction, and only then do altcoins dare to follow the sentiment. Before BTC truly breaks out with volume, all local excitement can only be considered short-term speculation, not a reversal. The current sideways movement is not a safety cushion but more like the calm before the storm: concerns about recession, tightening liquidity, and high-level divergence have not disappeared.
So altcoins can be restless, but retail investors shouldn't get carried away. Watching is fine; chasing highs requires caution. The fate of the market ultimately depends on BTC.
The above is just personal trading thoughts and does not constitute investment advice; profits and losses are your own responsibility. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Good morning ☀️
It's a new week again, first wishing everyone to eat meat and not noodles today 😁
Currently, the account still has 800u, not much capital, mainly aiming for steady progress.
Today I'll keep an eye on $XIAOMI to see if the Hong Kong stock market opening can bring some surprises, hopefully a direct surge so I can also feel what takeoff means 😂
$ZEC has been really strong these days, the price is getting firmer.
At this position, I dare not chase recklessly, nor do I recommend shorting aggressively. I'll wait and watch for a clear market signal before making a move.
Personally, I feel there might be one last sprint in the short term, but the higher it goes, the greater the risk. When it really enters the acceleration phase, it's time to start guarding against a high-level pullback.
As for BTC, ETF funds are showing signs of inflow again, market sentiment has somewhat recovered; this week also has important events like the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, so volatility may significantly increase going forward.
In summary:
BTC is viewed bullishly, ZEC neither chase highs nor short aggressively.
Still the same saying—
Opportunities come every day, no need to catch every wave. Control your position size, staying alive means having the next round. 😎$HYPE and $ENA face major unlocks this week.
hyperliquid:native: On October 6, about 3.75 million tokens will be unlocked, valued at $339 million, accounting for 1.69% of the circulating supply.
ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061: On October 5, about 172 million tokens will be unlocked, valued at $41 million, accounting for 1.88% of the circulating supply.
Recently, Hyperliquid's trading volume has been quite strong; next, it depends on whether the market can absorb this new supply.$BTC current price is $86,233, I'm WAITING here with no position. The 1-hour support is at $86,306–$86,398, but both 1-hour and 1D are overbought, and 1D also has a bearish divergence. The breakout list is not yet complete, so chasing longs or shorts at this level is not reliable.
A: If $86,306–$86,398 holds, the price will first sweep the liquidity above at $86,717–$86,918, then stabilize before targeting $87,300; if it breaks below $86,000, this idea becomes invalid.
B: If $86,306–$86,398 breaks down, the 1D bearish divergence will play out, then watch $85,813 and $85,549, with the final magnet being the liquidity below at $84,181–$84,382 and the POC at $83,975, where previous support turns into resistance. The idea of standing above $86,950 becomes invalid.
If entering the market later, reduce half the position at the two target levels $87,300 or $85,549 first, move stop loss to the cost price, and control risk.
Do you think there will be a rebound here in advance?
The previously mentioned $82,800 was reached today: the low was $83,169, not lost.In the end, the bubble is just too big. From 2023 to 2025, VC tokens basically have a structure of low circulation and high FDV. When VC institutions get unlocked tokens, they sell them; for them, no matter how low the price is, they still make a profit. Because the cost of acquiring these chips is extremely low, some even just endorse the project and get the chips, with almost zero cost.
This token unlocking model definitely needs to change. If it doesn't, all the holders who take the risk will suffer losses. Anyone holding long-term will inevitably be harvested by the sell-offs from VCs and project teams, without a doubt. Over time, the secondary market will disappear completely.
I have also lost a lot of money on this, for example with ARB and STRK, which opened with a 20 billion FDV but had a low circulating market cap. Then the project teams and VCs kept selling, unlocking and selling, causing the price to drop while the circulating market cap stayed the same or even increased. In the end, the ones getting harvested are small retail investors like me, using limited funds to take on others' unlimited low-cost chips. This kind of game is destined to only lose, never win. This year, the funds for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US were rescued by Q3.
According to Farside's data (as of 10/2, 10/2 IBIT not yet released):
· Q3 net inflow was about $6.36 billion (SoSoValue reports $6.34 billion), the largest quarter this year
· Q2 had a net outflow of about $4.89 billion, with $4.51 billion outflow in June alone
· Q1 had a slight net outflow of about $0.5 billion
· The total net inflow so far this year is only about +$1.1 billion
In Q3, IBIT alone had an inflow of about $5.13 billion, accounting for 80%; August was the month with the highest inflow this year, +$3.54 billion.
In the same quarter, BTC rose about 42.7%, the best quarter since Q4 2024. Funds and prices returned together.
Other ETFs (SoSoValue): Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $3.05 billion in Q3, with an outflow of $0.71 billion in Q2; XRP ETF had an inflow of $0.31 billion in Q3.
The first two days of October also saw net inflows. What to watch in Q4 is whether this round is a sustained allocation by institutions or short-term funds following the price.
Do you think ETF inflows in Q4 will be more or less than in Q3? Yesterday, while chatting with a netizen, I suddenly remembered
The 60k range was also shaken out like this
Back then, many people were bottom-fishing, and it kept repeatedly hitting lows close to new lows, grinding down before shooting straight up
Now it's the same pattern
Grinding and grinding, then suddenly it crashes down, long and short both open, yyds Round three: Bitcoin faces the $87K ceiling
$BTC is at $86,460 on the 4H chart, up 1.3%, with a wick reaching as high as $86,770. The ceiling that once blocked the double top in September and the surge on October 2 now appears right ahead.
Round 1: $87.4K at the end of September. Rejected.
Round 2: $87.3K on October 2, around the time of the jobs report. Rejected even more strongly, dropping straight down to $83.9K.
Round 3: happening right now The new week has started, and several coins improved over the weekend, but whether the rise can expand depends on whether the previously lagging coins continue to catch up 😸😸
I will raise my attention to $DOGE a bit again.
It was still around 0.0928 at noon, and by weekend evening it had reached about 0.0945, showing an actual price increase.
If other coins pause for now, and it can maintain upward momentum, this change is more worth noting.
I tend to first observe whether it can shift from just following the recovery to driving trading enthusiasm itself, rather than setting distant targets as soon as it shows signs of improvement.
I place $SOL on the more positive side.
The latest price is close to 122, up about 18% in the past month, and it still has positive returns this week.
What deserves more attention now is whether the upward opportunity has expanded to actual activity within the ecosystem.
If on-chain transactions, user activity, and fee income all improve together, the subsequent logic will be more solid.
Relying solely on price increases cannot judge how fast business growth is; I will continue to watch the data and not draw conclusions prematurely.
I think $LINK can continue to be tracked.
It returned to around 14.2, up about 1.8% in 24 hours, but still slightly down over the week.
There is now a recovery, and what needs to be proven next is whether this improvement can be sustained.
I will not relax requirements just because the project is well-known. Advantages in business must be matched by price performance to justify raising short-term expectations.
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 Both trades over the weekend broke even.
It shows I misread the market again.
But the market is always right.
When most of us are bearish,
the institutions are still buying heavily,
this is a matter of capital flow.
I chose to go against the flow,
so not making money is only natural.
Last night I also shorted BTC,
and it hit my stop-loss line.
The hard mode continues.
The difficulty isn’t the market,
it’s always myself fighting against the market.Michael Saylor posted again on X. This time he shared information related to the $BTC Tracker, with the caption: More orange than ever, meaning "more orange than ever before." According to past patterns, Strategy usually reveals the company's latest Bitcoin holdings changes the day after he posts this kind of content. Orange, or referring to Bitcoin, the more "orange" it is, could it be hinting at something? It's Monday, and this week's unlocking market makes HYPE the key focus. The single unlocking amount is about $339 million.
This week, be sure to pay close attention to price, trading volume, and capital flow.
If negative news is fully priced in and actual selling pressure is limited, there could be a rebound opportunity; if support is weak, then watch for trend-following shorting opportunities.
If the overall market pulls back this week, HYPE may also face some pressure 👇 $HYPE $ENA Plan A: Short on the rebound (preferred)
Entry: Price rebounds to the $2,750~$2,780 range (option Max Pain zone)
Position size: 5~7% (contract leverage ≤ 5x)
Stop loss: $2,820 (volume breakout invalidates double top)
Targets: $2,650 (first target), $2,560 (second target)
Rationale: Continuous institutional ETF outflows + MACD bearish signal + resistance zone suppression
Plan B: Long on breakout (secondary choice)
Entry: Volume-supported hold above $2,760 (4h close ≥ $2,760 and OI recovery)
Position size: 3~5% (contract leverage ≤ 3x)
Stop loss: $2,720 (false breakout pullback)
Targets: $2,810, $2,950
Rationale: Technical bullish alignment + short liquidation pressure (requires ETF inflows) The chessboard has just reached the midgame; the opponent is still counting the last pawn move, while I have already seen the throne in the endgame.
What is Micron's earnings report? It's an early check. Revenue of $54.229 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $33.42, gross margin of 87%—this is not an ordinary capture; this is uprooting the opponent's entire central pawn chain. More importantly, the FY27 Q1 guidance: a range of $60 billion to $63 billion, midpoint $61.5 billion, EPS of $38.15 ±1. This is not a forecast; this is a calculation before making the move.
Most people only see the immediate piece exchanges and rush to follow the trend when they see "revenue beats expectations." But what does a grandmaster see? They see the structure behind the pieces. The explosion of HBM and advanced DRAM is essentially AI data centers pushing memory from a "pawn on the edge" to the "central control square." Supply and demand will tighten further from FY27 to FY28; this is not random fluctuation but typical spatial compression—the opponent has fewer and fewer available squares, and every move is forced into a disadvantage.
Look again at the number most easily overlooked: strategic customer agreements increased from 16 to 26. This is positioning. True strength doesn't rely on winning a single tactical battle but on gradually stripping the opponent's options. Twenty-six agreements are 26 nails, pinning future demand onto our own chessboard.
So the question arises: how much longer can the memory upcycle last?
This question sounds as naive as "Can this game be won?" Cycles are not for guessing; they are for calculating sacrifices. The market now treats Micron as a strong attack point, but grandmasters know the real winning move lies in the timing difference on the supply side—when all players start expanding production and capital expenditures flood in like pawns crossing the river, that is the true turning point. The tight supply before FY28 is a moat; what comes after? That is the phase of sacrificing pieces to gain momentum.
The $xTSM linkage is even more interesting. It is like an underestimated open line on the chessboard. The strength of US memory stocks directly maps to the on-chain narrative, but mapping does not equal synchronization. Crypto market players often declare checkmate earlier than traditional markets and also make mistakes earlier. The battle here is typical endgame thinking—few pawns, active kings, one wrong move loses the entire board.
I've played chess for thirty years; the most costly lesson is never misjudging a single move but thinking you have seen the whole board clearly. Micron's check is beautiful, but beautiful does not mean the endgame. An 87% gross margin is the peak of the offensive and may also be the start of the opponent's redeployment. The more strategic customer agreements, the deeper the binding between both sides; this is both an advantage and a heavy burden that cannot be lightly sacrificed.
In the endgame, the king must move personally. Whoever is forced first into the squares calculated by the opponent loses. #micronaimemoryoutlook The $1697.45 spike was a cantilever that never underwent wind tunnel testing—looking light, but actually putting the entire load on a single column that was never verified, trembling whenever the wind blows.
After ZEC dropped from that height, spot fund channels saw net outflows for three consecutive trading days, totaling about $85.44 million, including $26.93 million on October 2 alone. In my line of work, this is called the main tenants collectively moving out: the building is still there, the elevators still run, the fire safety still passes inspection, but the cash flow profile has already cracked a very clear subsidence fissure. I don’t look at the rent price first; I look at who is moving out first.
The truly critical point is that the cumulative net inflow is still about $213 million, with total net assets around $751 million. This indicates the main structure hasn’t been breached—the load-bearing system is still intact, only a few curtain wall panels have been removed. In structural engineering, the most dangerous thing is never bricks falling off the facade, but someone starting to doubt the reinforcement ratio of the foundation. The former is a maintenance budget issue; the latter is an evacuation plan issue.
Looking at NU7: the testnet is expected to activate around October 6, with the target block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. This is like cutting the floor span directly to one-third. A smaller span means faster structural response, a shorter natural period, but the cost is that the fatigue load frequency at the node connections triples. I’ve worked on super high-rises and know what this means—it’s not just changing a light bulb, it’s re-reinforcing the entire shear wall on that floor, recalculating seismic ratings, repositioning dampers, even rearranging the pretension sequence of high-strength bolts.
What’s more worth watching is this sentence: the mainnet activation height has not yet been finalized. To me, this means the construction drawings are out, but the site hasn’t been laid out yet. No matter how beautiful the drawings are, without coordinates, elevations, or concrete curing cycles, the project can’t be considered complete for even a day. Running the testnet is just a model room; model rooms don’t bear loads and never undergo static load tests.
As for the market linkage of that US stock mapping target, essentially it’s about connecting a corridor next to an existing old building. The corridor itself creates no value; all the value lies in the embedded parts and expansion joints on both sides—if the old building settles two inches and the new building settles one inch, the corridor is the first place to tear apart. Turning traditional assets into on-chain certificates means the risk is never in the asset itself, but in the anchoring nodes and the compensation design for differential settlement.
The foundation is qualified, the curtain wall is being dismantled and modified, the secondary structure is being reinforced, and every disturbance during reinforcement tests the construction team’s skills more than the original design. #zecetf3dayoutflowsEl Salvador's $BTC reserves have passed the International Monetary Fund's scrutiny. The IMF Executive Board completed the second and third reviews of the country's $1.4 billion, 40-month extended loan arrangement and approved an immediate disbursement of about $138 million. The performance criteria related to increasing Bitcoin holdings were not fully met, but the IMF granted a waiver based on corrective measures and renewed commitments.
The waiver preserved the financing without changing the original conditions. The IMF made it clear that, aside from recorded donations, no further public funds are expected to be used to buy Bitcoin, while requiring reduced state involvement, strengthened crypto asset regulation, and increased transparency of public sector holdings. Majority ownership and operational control of the official wallet Chivo have been transferred to private operators, with the government retaining minority ownership and custodial responsibility.
Currently, El Salvador holds about 7,794 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $666 million. This reserve remains, but its growth path is constrained by the loan agreement: donations can be counted, but fiscal allocations for buying coins cannot. For Bitcoin, this looks more like sovereign holdings being locked by international financing conditions rather than a signal of a new round of state buying spree.[Ergou Market Watch: Monday Morning Rally, Is the Dog Dealer Trying to Trick Again? BTC at 90K, ETH at 3,000 Rhythm?]
Brothers, BTC rallied hard Monday morning, don’t chase it impulsively!
$BTC: Surged to 86777 overnight, current price 86237. Looking at the 1-hour RSI, both the 6 and 12 lines have soared above 73, seriously overbought! Such a rally Monday morning is clearly to blow out weekend short positions. Chasing longs now is just reckless; strong resistance is at 86800-87000, it could spike and then fall anytime. Support below is first seen at 85000.
$ETH: Followed up to 2719, RSI at 64, a bit healthier than BTC, not extremely overbought yet. But the market is clearly being forcibly driven by BTC; if the market pulls back, ETH will also shake accordingly, so watch BTC’s moves.
$SOL: Current price 120.8, still in the red today. BTC is sucking liquidity, SOL’s liquidity is directly drained, 1-hour RSI dropped to 35 in the weak zone. No independent short-term trend, don’t add positions blindly; wait for the market to stabilize before it moves.
Ergou’s heartfelt advice:
Momentum is overextended Monday morning, not a good sign. Holding spot and playing dead is fine, but chasing contracts higher is just giving your head away!
Trading strategy:
Hold spot; if empty, wait for pullbacks (BTC around 85000, ETH near 2680) to buy in batches.$INIT I originally just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up giving me dumplings for half a year.
Last night before bed, I went long on INIT. Honestly, after placing the order, I felt a bit shaky myself. When it pulled back to 0.10833, it was clear someone was buying at the bottom. It hovered all night without breaking that support level. A support that holds like this is worth testing.
Now at 0.11896, up +98.03%. Those on board should be waking up smiling; this profit feels good. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet.
Taking profits on the position: secure 75%, move the stop loss to the cost price for the remaining 25%. Protect the cost price and let the profits run if it continues to rise. Don’t be greedy for the last bite; pocket the big chunk first.
For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. The market waits to be seized, and profits come from holding. I’ll notify you immediately when the next signal appears.
$DOGE $SNDK