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WTI crude oil previously surged to a stage high of 106.80 driven by geopolitical news from the Middle East. As tensions gradually ease, funds begin to take profits and exit, pushing oil prices into a volatile downward channel. The current quote is 90.21, with a daily decline of 2.42%.
Looking at the chart, it is clear that the recent pullback has seen continuously lower highs. The 12-hour MACD has turned bearish, with selling pressure gradually increasing; the 4-hour indicator is at a critical point, showing a trend to continue downward. The RSI remains in the neutral zone without oversold conditions, indicating that the downside is not yet fully exhausted.
The first short-term resistance is at 92.8-94, near today's high, where selling pressure will noticeably increase if prices rebound to this range; a stronger resistance lies at 96. The key support below is at 86.90, also a recent low. If this level is broken, oil prices will continue to decline, with the next target around 84.
Core idea: The risk premium that previously pushed oil prices higher is gradually dissipating, and the market is returning to supply and demand fundamentals. A rebound to resistance levels is a suitable window to consider short positions $CL #CLARITY投票前分歧未解 $STRK perpetual 50x long position, opened at 0.0538, now at 0.0729, floating profit +1775.09%.
0.054 is a strong support level; every time it approaches this area, it seems to be supported. I believe the bottom has been found, and a bullish candle will trigger a long. 50x leverage, very small position, stop loss at 0.05.
Currently +1775.09%, trailing stop at 0.0538. Profit secured, calm mindset, watching the remaining position play out. $BTC $ETH #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC current position is around 82500, which was the point of steady buying on dips and buying the rally during the high-level consolidation without breaking support in the past two weeks. Currently, the market has broken below the range, a top-bottom conversion pressure level, and I personally choose to try shorting.
$BTC is in an oversold rebound repair phase. If 87000 is the top this time, then the downtrend will continue, and this position might be a good short entry point.
Fundamentals
ETF funds showed strong inflows in September but have clearly cooled down.
Federal Reserve policy and hawkish minutes suppress risk assets.
US Treasury yields remain high, forming a core pressure.
Dollar and oil prices exert dual pressure.
Geopolitical risks: the stalemate in the US-Iran conflict continues, the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, and the transmission direction of geopolitical risk to safe-haven assets is uncertain. $ETH #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 10.9
After BTC bottomed out at 803 early yesterday morning, it started to rebound.
The rebound stabilized around 826. I was initially watching to see if there would be a pullback, but after the rebound, it kept oscillating within the moving averages, basically retreating every time it touched the moving average.
So I chose to break even by closing the short position here and then opened a long position.
Entered long at 82498, closed at 83329, with a floating profit of 8317.
This is how the market works; it won’t follow your expectations. When the market changes, you have to learn to adapt and not be stubborn.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $SOL perpetual 100x long position, opened at 109.59, now at 110.64, floating profit +95.81%.
The logic is very simple: the 109.5 whole number support was tested multiple times without breaking, volume decreased, showing clear bottom characteristics. Finally waited for a strong bullish candle to go long. 100x leverage, stop loss at 108. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a pullback, directly pulled up to 110.64.
Moved stop loss up to 109.59 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks above 115, can hold for a move to 120. $BTC $ETH #跟着OKX打卡2049 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Pharaoh directly says that the Strait of Hormuz, the "global oil pipeline," has been tightened again, causing oil prices to jump 4%, and Bitcoin immediately retreated toward the 80,000 mark.
First, let's see how deep this stab is. According to Kpler data, only 7 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on October 6, less than half the average daily level of the past week, marking the lowest since July 23. From September 28 to October 4, 10 oil tankers were attacked in this crucial waterway, the most intensive week since the war began. Brent crude oil surged 4.3% to above $104, and WTI also rose to around $92.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? The transmission chain follows the old script: oil prices rise → inflation expectations harden → U.S. Treasury yields can't fall → risk assets get drained. Bitcoin was smashed from around 83,000 down to 80,432, hitting a nearly three-week low. ETFs couldn't hold up either, with a single-day net outflow of 485 million, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK all withdrawing. Ethereum fared worse, dropping about 2% in 24 hours to around 2,520, XRP fell over 4%, and SOL dropped about 5%.
But Pharaoh has to mention a variable. Trump later added on Truth Social that there would be no war with Iran before the November midterm elections, citing "progress in negotiations." Oil prices responded by falling back, and Bitcoin bounced from 80,544 back above 82,500. This shows the market fears not sanctions, but bombs.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% $ZEC perpetual 50x long position, opened at 1201.05, now at 1227.66, floating profit +110.27%.
Honestly, this trade was opened very comfortably. It was clear that above 1200 the price wouldn't fall further, a double bottom rebound scenario. When the bullish candle pulled up, I went long immediately, setting stop loss at 1180. With 50x leverage and a very small position, it never looked back and surged straight to 1227.66.
+110.27%, trailing stop at 1201.05. In this market, bulls are the way to go, steadily taking big profits. $BTC $ETH #跟着OKX打卡2049 $AVAX perpetual 50x short position, opened at 10.682, now at 10.372, floating profit +145.57%.
The logic is simple: after a surge, the bullish momentum quickly fades, the rise relies entirely on sentiment hype, with no substantial buying support.
50x leverage, stop loss set above key resistance. Macro sentiment turns cold, capital inflow continues to slow, high-level rise lacks sustained capital support.
No more chasing funds entering the market, profit-taking gradually realized, price gradually weakens.
Trailing stop loss moved up to lock in profits. Increase short positions on volume break below key support; rebound faces resistance with low volume, patiently hold short waiting for further decline. $BTC $ETH Break-even price, the market doesn't care to remember
$INJ around 6.9, down about 9.7% in 24 hours, down about 10.3% in a week. Short-term performance is weak, so I will lower my expectations for a quick recovery.
People who bought above 7 tend to think "I'll leave once it goes back up." But your purchase price only affects your account profit and loss; it doesn't automatically become a market target. If you plan to hold on, you need to reconsider: based on today's information, are you still willing to hold?
If yes, give reasons and exit conditions; if not, don't treat breaking even as the only option. Thinking this through is more useful than repeatedly refreshing the price.
$LINK this morning around 12.8, down about 7.6% in a week. My focus is whether the next rise can sustain buying pressure.
When the rebound just appears, buyers may only be short-term. It's more worthwhile to raise expectations if the price can hold after rising and if there are buyers when it falls back. For now, treat it as weak; don't assume the price will eventually respect your cost just because you are familiar with the project.
$RE down about 12.3% in a week, but basically flat over a month. Different time scales show different market conditions.
For intra-week trading, this pullback can't be ignored; for longer-term research, you need to check the business and valuation separately. The worst is entering the market aiming to profit from a few days' volatility and only deciding to hold long-term after losses. First set your holding reasons, then decide how long to wait. $ETH perpetual 100x long position, opened at 2480.28, now at 2499.96, floating profit +79.26%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 2480 level was tested repeatedly but never broken; there's strong support every time it nears this area. After confirming the bottom is valid, I decisively went long on a big bullish candle. Using 100x leverage, position size pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +79.26%, and the trailing stop loss has been moved up to 2480.28. Not greedy, locking in profits first, then letting the rest run. $ZEC $BTC #跟着OKX打卡2049 Currently, Bitcoin is in a larger-scale wide-range box consolidation.
Previously, it repeatedly held the daily support near the key 8.25K level.
This inevitably accumulated a large number of short orders.
Instead, it will squeeze back to the daily box and re-enter a tug-of-war.
Later, I tend to see a short squeeze pattern from the previous consolidation phase.
First, a small step upward, then a large bearish candle directly piercing through the upper edge of the box.
As for whether the liquidity release can push it into the next expansion range,
we still need to observe and confirm later.$PUMP is about to unlock again in 3 days
Approximately $50 million worth of tokens will be unlocked
And looking at the calendar, this happens every month
It's not just this month
There is reason to suspect the project team is pumping the price to dump
$ENA also unlocked a batch of tokens at the end of last month
Combined with the market rally these days
The price has been continuously dropping
The price has dropped nearly 20%
All tokens were pumped before unlocking
I'm ready to sell off $UB tokens
The volatility is too low, completely not matching the good volatility of altcoins
I've held it for a long time, and it's been oscillating within a range
Is the whale stalling with us?
I'm a bit unwilling to keep stalling with it. $BTC perpetual 100x long position, opened at 81984.4, now at 83099.7, floating profit +136.28%.
After bottoming and stabilizing near 82,000, it directly made a wave of trend-following rally. I followed the trend to go long, setting stop loss below 81,000. With 100x leverage and a very small position, the movement was much stronger than expected, directly rallying above 83,000, with explosive returns!
Moved the stop loss up to 81984.4, now watching if the 85,000 whole number level can be broken. $ETH $ZEC #跟着OKX打卡2049 $ONG ONG has pulled back from a high level, waiting for direction confirmation before making a move.
Brothers, this rollercoaster ride with ONG in this market wave has been thrilling.
After initially dropping to 0.08229 to test the bottom, there was a sharp rally pushing the price higher. Many thought it would start a continuous uptrend, but after the surge, momentum weakened and the price gradually fell back, now hovering around 0.087. Those who chased in at the high point are probably feeling very uncomfortable by now.
The selling pressure above hasn't been fully absorbed yet. The current sideways movement at this level doesn't necessarily mean the decline has stopped; it could also be a consolidation before choosing a direction. Don't rush to bottom-fish just because you see sideways trading.
Short-term support is around 0.0862. If this level can hold steadily, there is a chance for a rebound.
Around 0.089 is the short-term resistance level. Whether the rebound can hold above this resistance zone is the key signal to judge if the bulls can regain strength. #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 $ETH Market Observation: Bulls Won't Back Down, Where's the Bottom? 🔍
The bulls are still holding strong, which in itself is a warning sign. 🚨
After such a big drop in Bitcoin, logically the bulls should have collapsed by now. But the data is honest: smart money long positions still exceed 900 million, nearly 300 million more than shorts; funding rates remain positive — bulls are still paying protection fees to the bears. 💸
What does a true despair bottom look like? Experienced traders know: collective liquidation of bulls, cutting losses and exiting, funding rates turning negative, and the market falling completely silent. What about now? Bulls are carrying over 30 million in unrealized losses, yet instead of fleeing, they are holding even heavier positions than the bears and stubbornly resisting. The psychological defense line hasn't broken, and funding rates have never even turned negative. 😤
What does this mean? The bears' scythe hasn't stopped yet. As long as the bulls don't surrender, selling pressure won't be released. Don't rush to catch the falling knife; short with the trend and patiently wait for the bloodbath when the bulls finally break. ⏳📉
Remember: bottoms are cut out, not held out. 🩸
⚠️ The above is only a market logic analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Contracts carry risks; position sizing should be cautious. $BTC $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 🚨 Brothers, all in on $SOL! I've opened a 10x long position.
I'm at 109.2, and while the market is still panicking with RSI oversold, I've already placed my long order.
Why am I firmly going long?
On-chain data doesn't lie: SOL's new wallets have surged 124%, daily active addresses have soared to 4.27 million, with 1.71 million new wallets entering every day. Fiserv just connected over 90 banks to the Solana network. The block time is set to reduce from 250ms to 200ms this Friday. This isn't hype—it's real adoption exploding.
Fundamentals are even stronger: SOL spot ETF has had net inflows for 19 consecutive weeks, and Bitwise staking ETF hit a record $108 million in daily trading volume. Institutions are buying with real money, but the price hasn't caught up yet.
Most importantly—there's a dense short liquidation zone above 110, stretching from 107 to over 115, with previous short liquidations accounting for 96%. Once a rebound triggers a short squeeze, the fuel is ready.
My position: Long at 109 with 10x leverage, targeting the short liquidation zone at 116 first, and if it holds, aiming for 120. Stop loss set at 105; if it breaks the previous low, the logic fails and I exit.
Faith isn't just words; position size is attitude. SOL🚀
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#跟着OKX打卡2049 BTC just broke through 83000, now waiting for a breakout pullback confirmation. As long as it can hold above 83000, breaking through 83500 and 84300 again is not a big problem. If it falls below 83000, there is a high probability of retesting the short-term support at 82300-82500.
ETH is slightly weaker, with short-term support at 2480 and resistance at 2520. Attention needs to be paid to BTC stabilizing before a decent rebound can occur. Shorts are concentrated in liquidation at 2540, 2570. Currently, it needs to hold 2500 to continue breaking upwards. If it falls below 2500, it will likely test the key support at 2480-2485 $BTC $ETH DOGE has dropped nearly 11%, has it bottomed out? I haven't found any reason for it to strengthen right now!
DOGE is currently around $0.085, down from about $0.095 earlier this week, with very limited rebound strength.
What's more troublesome is that there is currently no new catalyst to independently boost DOGE.
On one side, long contracts continue to be liquidated; on the other, Bitwise's DOGE fund BWOW is about to cease trading.
Although this doesn't mean the entire DOGE market is withdrawing funds, it at least indicates that institutional money hasn't provided stronger incremental signals for now.
So, I'm currently cautious on DOGE in the short term.
Next, focus on three key levels:
$0.0856: Whether it can reclaim and hold this level will determine if the rebound has a chance to continue developing.
$0.081: A recent critical support; if broken, watch out for further declines.
$0.08: The next psychological level to watch.
If $DOGE can hold above $0.0856 and the broader market stops falling, there is reason to expect a stronger rebound.
But if the rebound lacks volume and $0.081 doesn't hold, then the current rise is more likely just a pullback during a downtrend.
What Meme coins fear most is not the drop itself, but that after the drop, there is no new buying story.
For DOGE to strengthen again, community enthusiasm alone is not enough; capital needs to return. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Targeting the bulls! BTC ETH ZEC chained deleveraging, bottom hunters beware of a second trap💥
Here’s my view.
This wave is a targeted cleanup of long leverage, not a two-way squeeze of longs and shorts. Even if a large number of long positions are liquidated, it doesn’t mean the market has bottomed. Don’t rush to chase the rebound just because of liquidation data.
BTC ETH ZEC liquidation data is highly synchronized.
BTC 24h total liquidations 120 million, long liquidations 110 million, volume-driven decline triggered a chain stampede.
ETH 24h total liquidations 83.18 million, longs account for 73.2 million, many faith-based holders were shaken out.
ZEC 24h liquidations 22.62 million, almost all longs, altcoin sell-offs feel even more painful.
Long liquidation is just high-level leveraged chips being handed over, not an immediate reversal.
After killing the bulls, there will be a long bottoming process; we must wait until holders’ sentiment is exhausted before a recovery window appears.
Two deadly moves to avoid at all costs:
Exiting with a stop loss and immediately chasing the rebound.
Increasing leverage to lower cost after being trapped.
Control your impulses, don’t try to catch the bottom; wait for clear signs of stabilization in the market.
Trading insight:
Liquidation is just chip turnover, not a bottom signal. Rushing in will only lead to a second round of harvesting.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 🚨 UPDATE: Charles Hoskinson rejects Vitalik Buterin’s case against lattice-based cryptography.
Argues that decades of attacks are already priced into current parameters.#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch #BTCETFBiggestOutflow $STRK is starting to transition from L2 to L1, which is a very milestone transition.
Since the beginning of this year, $BTC faucets 🚰 have been continuously releasing small amounts of BTC on-chain, and I found it very strange. I didn't expect such a big ambition ESMA JUST ORDERED MICA-LICENSED FIRMS TO DROP NON-COMPLIANT STABLECOINS, INCLUDING USDT.
EU CLIENTS CAN STILL SELL, CONVERT OR WITHDRAW. NEW BUYS ARE OUT.
DEADLINE: 8 JANUARY 2027.$PEPE This trade is based on volume-price divergence: short at 0.000004094, mark at 0.000003929, +201.51%. During the rebound, volume fails to pick up, and selling pressure intensifies on the breakdown, indicating it's a retreat rather than a shakeout. The "community shout trades" of Meme coins can't stop on-chain selling pressure; price moves first, story follows. For 50x leverage, don't treat +200% as a skill certification; secure your principal and let profits run; if the rebound fails to surpass the previous high, remain bearish; if it returns to the entry zone, admit the mistake. Don't catch a falling knife without a position. $DOGE $BOME Investing 20 yuan in Bitcoin every day is just the cost of a pack of cigarettes. Persist for 5 years.
The total investment is 36,000 yuan, now it's worth about 70,000 yuan, doubling directly.
In between, it experienced a bloodbath from over 50,000 yuan down to 16,000 yuan, and also a crazy surge to over 120,000 yuan.
But buying 20 yuan every day without fail, in the end, still made a profit.
Some people watch the market every day, chase highs and sell lows, use leverage and get liquidated, ending up losing everything.
Some people just invest the money they would spend on milk tea every day, and after 5 years their assets double.
The harshest thing about Bitcoin is never getting rich overnight, but if you persist long enough, it will smooth out all the market noise.
20 yuan a day, anyone can afford it.
The hard part is doing it continuously for 1826 days. $BTC $ZEC shorted at 1367, dropped to a low of 1112, why am I still holding on?
Last night, ZEC fell to 1112, and many friends around me thought it couldn't fall further and started considering bottom-fishing.
But my judgment is: a short-term low does not mean the downtrend has ended.
From 1367 down to 1112, it has already dropped nearly 19%. At this point, it is indeed necessary to guard against a rebound, but if the rebound lacks strength and capital support is weak, there is still a possibility of a secondary bottom.
Therefore, I am not in a hurry to change my bearish view for now. Next, I will focus on observing the rebound strength and the performance at key resistance levels, and after confirming the rebound is blocked, then judge whether the bears still have a chance.
Trading should not turn bullish just because it has fallen a lot, nor should it ignore risks just because it is bearish. Direction depends on logic, positions depend on trends, and profits must be protected. #OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资 🔥🔥🔥 Tonight's market is relatively volatile, here are some key signals noted casually
First, looking at BTC, the current price corresponds to a total market cap of 2.78 trillion, with the overall market level. It has slightly dropped 1.62% in 24h, still consolidating at a high level. The contract long-short ratio is 1.64, bulls still dominate, but considering the hotspots, short-term sentiment is actually cooling down.
Hotspot overview:
1️⃣ The US Dollar Index fell 0.1% on the 8th; theoretically, a weaker dollar benefits risk assets, but BTC did not rally accordingly, indicating short-term funds are cautious.
2️⃣ The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of 244.1 million USD yesterday, a significant recent bleed. When ETF funds withdraw, spot buying weakens.
3️⃣ Sector-wise, Meme and new coins led the declines (-3.13%, -2.05%), discussion heat halved directly, and previously most active retail funds are clearly retreating now.
Personal view: ETF outflows combined with a pullback in hot sectors likely mean continued bottom consolidation short-term, so don't rush to chase longs. However, trading volume actually increased by 13.73%, indicating rising turnover and a possible upcoming market shift. I tend to wait for ETF funds to return or the dollar to weaken further before considering adding positions. For now, control your position size and keep ammunition ready.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $AAVE
The decline of AAVE is close to that of ETH; is the business difference temporarily overshadowed?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 159.91—176.01 USDT, change -4.21%, trading volume about 7.15 million USDT.
Similar price changes in the same window only indicate similar short-term returns and cannot infer that lending business and ETH are subject to exactly the same constraints. Utilization, revenue, and risk indicators still need to be observed independently.
If risk indicators worsen or the continuation of weak support persists, maintain caution; if actual lending demand improves and prices recover to higher lows, then raise the independent recovery assessment.Just thinking about reducing some positions to avoid a pullback,
but BTC and ETH suddenly surged upward together.
This market flips faster than turning a page,
everyone wants new highs,
but only what you can really hold onto is truly yours.
First, follow the trend,
don't get washed out by the back-and-forth spikes and lose half your gains.
$BTC, $ETH
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#标普500首次站上7800点，纳指再创新高 $JTO USDT perpetual short position, 50x leverage, floating profit 435.85%. Opened short at 0.5667 to 0.5173, profit has come out but still holding the position. At this leverage, stop loss immediately if wrong, if right then it's a big payout, the core logic is still payout priority.
You don't have to be right on every trade, low frequency waiting for one big payout, as long as the entry is early enough and you can hold. In contrast, many people do high-frequency trades every day but don't do as well as others who get one right in a year. Small capital should use principal that can afford losses to find big opportunities, lose a few hundred if wrong, step up if right once.
High leverage short positions achieving this return definitely went through many fluctuations. Being able to hold means it's not pure luck, there is judgment on chips and rhythm. Many people see the right direction but can't hold, panicking at slight rebounds.
The primary market is not short of opportunities, what is lacking is patience and position management. This position is still held down, no matter how it goes later, at least now it proves the path for small capital to bet on extreme payouts hasn't changed. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The bearish trend continues, with no signs of a rebound on the chart.
$SAND perpetual contracts shorted with 50x leverage, currently holding an unrealized profit of 153.02%.
Take profits first, set a breakeven stop loss on the base position. Don't be greedy in the final phase of the move; securing gains is the hard truth.
If you haven't entered yet, don't chase shorts at the low; beware of rebound spikes. Wait for a pullback near the 0.07025 resistance level. I will notify with new signals in the updates. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 I have always believed that fund management determines how far I can go. If I have 100,000 yuan of disposable funds, I would divide the money into five parts: - 20% for living expenses, not involved in trading. - 30% for stable reserves, to keep funds safe. - 20% for mainstream coin investments, participating in long-term opportunities. - 10% for contract trading, capturing short-term trends. - 20% as opportunity reserves, waiting for high-odds market conditions. This is just a reference plan; the specific proportions need to be adjusted based on income, liabilities, and risk tolerance. When trading contracts, I control single loss within 1% of the trading account. First determine the stop loss, then calculate the position size, not open a position first and then consider the loss. After making a profit, I will not reinvest all profits back into the market, but transfer part of the earnings into reserve funds and long-term investment accounts. If the account continues to draw down, I will actively reduce position size. If the market has no suitable opportunities, I would rather stay out and wait than trade for the sake of trading. I also will not keep adding to a position just because I am optimistic about a certain direction. Correct direction judgment does not mean the timing of entry is correct. When the trading logic fails, one should stop loss instead of using more funds to prove oneself right. For me, fund management has three principles: first, living funds must not be touched. Second, single loss must be controllable. Third, profits should gradually be converted into assets that truly belong to oneself. Making money relies on cognition, protecting profits relies on discipline, and long-term survival relies on fund management. I don't need to make money on every trade; what I need is to still have the next opportunity even if my judgment is wrong.$BTC $ETH moved sharply within minutes of entry. A lucky recovery, but emotional trading without a stop loss is a lesson learned.
I prefer swing trading. Before my 12-hour flight, I’ll close my positions and reset.
Respect the market, manage risk, and don’t chase every profit. Every day is a fresh start. 🫶#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch #BTCETFBiggestOutflow #HormuzOilSupplySqueeze Old friends should still remember that in our video last week, we mentioned two Gann low point times, the first being early October. After BTC hit a low of 80393 in the early hours of October 9, it reversed with a V-shaped recovery ✅
Has the correction ended now? What’s the outlook going forward?
The rise from 74967 to 87395 lasted 6 days, while the correction from 87395 to 80393 took 16 days. If the 87395-80393 correction is a daily-level correction, then BTC must not fall below 80393 again and must break through and hold above 86000.
If BTC fails to create a new high above 87395 or falls below 80393 again, it indicates that the movement from 87395 is a weekly-level correction. In this scenario, the Gann time low on October 9 is a smaller-level low, and the movement starting from it is a rebound. After the rebound ends, BTC will continue to fall until early November.
If the movement starting from 87395 is a weekly-level correction, the structure is as follows: 87395-80393 is the first wave down, which is daily-level. The rise from 80393 is a rebound against this decline (shown in the green box in the chart). After the rebound ends, there will be another decline of the same level as 87395-80393. After finding the end of this entire weekly-level correction, BTC will start the next weekly-level rise, which will be much stronger than the 57800-87395 rise.
We mentioned this expectation in the Sunday video, and as time passes, this possibility is increasing. But in any case, after the correction starting at 87395 ends, BTC will continue to rise."Big Brother Maji Back in Action: BTC Leading the Charge, ETH Betting Big"
Big Brother Maji is fully revived, with $BTC + $ETH dual forces in position, betting heavily this round.
BTC Long Position | 40X Full Margin
9 BTC at high leverage entered the market, opening at 82535.4, 40x full margin, maximum flexibility. Currently, the floating loss is not large, but the margin for error is extremely narrow; a sharp spike could trigger a chain reaction. More like a vanguard position, aiming for quick recovery, fast in and out.
ETH Long Position | 25X Full Margin
The real main battlefield. 11,100 ETH, position value about 27.68 million, accounting for the vast majority of the account. Opened at 2554.31, already with floating losses and still paying funding fees. The liquidation range is very close to the current price, relying on extremely high endurance to stubbornly hold for mid-term recovery.
Overall, BTC is responsible for the assault, ETH for holding the line. The former bets on flexibility, the latter on trend. But with high leverage and full margin, risks are also maximized. Spikes, funding fees, liquidation lines—any one of these can trigger a chain reaction.
Ordinary people should not copy this. He has the capital depth to withstand volatility; you do not. Position management is always more important than direction. Watching is fine, but don’t get carried away.
For personal observation only, not investment advice.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 BTC развивает отскок после вчерашней полной отработки цели "Треугольника" 81 347$. О которой писали в среду, 7 октября. Ранее до этого была отработана, напомним, и локальная "Двойная вершина" 82 139$. В итоге шортовые импульсы, заложенные в эти фигуры, себя исчерпали. От Strong signal потенциального лоя на часовом ТФ актив показывает отскок, который мы ожидали еще до финального слива. И на котором рассчитывали добирать шорт. И - только что добрали. НО пока небольшим объемом, так как смущает рисPUMP is about to unlock again in 3 days
Approximately $50 million worth of tokens will be unlocked
And looking at the calendar, this happens every month
It's not just this month
There is reason to suspect the project team is pumping the price to dump
$ENA also unlocked a batch of tokens at the end of last month
Combined with the market rally these days
The price has been continuously dropping
The price has dropped nearly 20%
All tokens were pumped before unlocking
$PUMP On the evening of October 9, $ETH current price is 2505, volume 423, daily average 92
Range oscillation, continue to hold, the grid is still actively trading, losses are gradually decreasing, there is still hope for taking profit, persist ✊
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 67% is not luck, it's coal prices + gas prices + railways all lifting together: Guanghui Energy's Q1-Q3 forecast turns the “resource stock revival” into a math problem
Guanghui Energy expects net profit for the first three quarters to increase by 167%–177% year-on-year — it's not new energy subsidies arriving, nor financial magic, but the main product price center really rising:
Coal: Xinjiang coal outbound channels are smooth, Hami lump coal and thermal coal price centers are much higher than last year's bottom, Guanghui owns mines + Liugou/Hongliuhe railways, others can't transport but it can ship;
LNG/Natural Gas: international gas prices rebound, domestic peak winter demand expected earlier, Qidong LNG terminal turnover + trade price spread both recovering;
Coal chemical: methanol, coal tar, upgraded coal follow the black chain restocking, cost side Xinjiang pithead prices stable, price spread goes directly into profit;
Plus the 2025 same period base was pushed very low by price bottoming, so multiples naturally explode.
167% is the result of "low year-on-year base + price rebound," not doubling capacity;
If coal prices drop and gas prices ease, next year's same period forecast could turn to "year-on-year -40%";
Guanghui's real strength lies in the "mine—railway—terminal—coal chemical" integration, more resilient than pure traders, but can't resist a global demand collapse. Macro Background: AI Infrastructure Boom Drives Up Long-Term Interest Rates — A New Structural Headwind
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal a macro picture overlooked by the market: massive private debt issuance for AI infrastructure construction is becoming a key driver pushing up U.S. Treasury yields. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that between 2025 and 2026, the top five tech giants will spend over $1 trillion in capital expenditures related to AI, forcing companies to rely more on bonds and private credit to raise funds.
This means that even if the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates, long-term rates may remain high due to competition for AI financing. For Bitcoin, a real yield of 2.92% means investors can already earn a considerable return from government bonds before taking on crypto volatility risk, structurally raising the risk premium required for Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #跟着OKX打卡2049 The anonymity coin sector's heat has cooled down, with $ZEC plummeting under high volatility, yielding a short position profit of 306.69%.
As a veteran privacy coin, ZEC is highly sensitive to market sentiment, showing strong upward elasticity but equally fierce downward moves. Previously, it rebounded on privacy narratives, but as the overall market weakened, sentiment premiums quickly faded. Without new positive catalysts, funds collectively withdrew from the anonymity sector, causing valuations to rapidly normalize.
Each rebound on the chart is weaker than the last, with rallies lacking volume and declines showing increased volume—clear signals of bulls retreating.
I entered a short position at 1316.78, confirming the setup on a breakdown, adding to the position under rebound pressure, and locking in profits in batches during the main downtrend. No bottom guessing or holding losing positions—steadily profiting by following the trend. $ETH $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $ETH perpetual 100x short position opened at 2698.58, now at 2505.6, floating profit +715.11%.
The logic is simple: contract long positions continue to rise, funding rates have reached a high-risk zone, and long crowding is maxed out. With 100x leverage, stop loss at 2780. Recently, Layer2 ecosystem activity has declined, gas fees remain low, on-chain revenue is below expectations, combined with macro pressure from rising US Treasury yields suppressing risk assets, ETH long confidence is weakening, and concentrated liquidation selling pressure is being released.
Long profit-taking pressure continues to emerge, the market lacks support, and the downtrend unfolds accordingly.
Trailing stop raised to 2580. Increase short positions on volume break below 2450; rebound with low volume faces resistance, patiently hold shorts awaiting further decline. $BTC $ZEC #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $US has risen, is it the main rally or the last push?
$US consolidated sideways for quite a while before suddenly surging with volume, climbing stepwise all the way up. The volume matched fairly well, not the kind of move that fizzles out after a single spike. The bottom structure seems solid, indicating that funds entered in batches rather than purely driven by sentiment.
However, the gains are already evident, and there are quite a few profit-taking positions at high levels. The most common scenario at this stage is that whales quietly exit in batches while retail investors keep rushing in. When the sentiment eventually cools off, the pullback is likely to be sharper than most expect.
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% 据Lookonchain链上监测：美国政府过去3天向#CoinbasePrime存入17733枚BTC（约14.8亿美元）和750枚WBTC（约6200万美元），合计超15亿美元。 👉🏻短期影响 钱一到Coinbase Prime这种机构托管平台，市场立刻紧张。历史经验告诉大家，政府查没资产进交易所，后面常有拍卖或抛售动作，供应压力一上来，情绪就容易被放大。 这3天$BTC 正好跌了6.9%左右，大概率跟这笔大额转入有直接关系，资金还没真正卖，恐慌已经先来了。 短线波动会加大，上下洗盘都可能。 👉🏻长期影响 先别急着下结论。Coinbase Prime是美国法警局指定的查没加密资产托管方，转入多半是资产归集、处理流程，不等于立刻挂单卖出。 2025年3月的行政令还设立了战略比特币储备，明确储备里的BTC“不得出售”。当然，部分可能涉及受害者赔偿或法院指令，WBTC也不在BTC储备范围内。 长期看，政府持仓仍巨大（约30万枚量级），真正大规模抛售才会形成持续压制，目前还没看到明确卖出信号。 👉🏻综合判断 短期偏利空、长期中性偏谨慎。 情绪和潜在供应是空方武器，但没有确认成交的This $ATH dish is like a piece of Wagyu trimmings just taken out of the cold storage—only moved 0.44% in 24 hours, no smoke rising from the pot, but if you get close and sniff, blood is seeping out.
The short-term RSI dropped to 31.1, already close to what our kitchen calls the "low-temperature slow-cooking zone," going lower means overcooling; the long-term RSI is 48.2, lukewarm on medium heat, neither up nor down, a typical simmering state. The real signal is in the Bollinger Bands: the short-term price is lying at -6%, tightly hugging the lower band at -0.1%, almost scraping the bottom of the pot clean; the mid-term is still hanging at 25%, with the lower band at +2.4% and the upper band at +7.3%—a temperature difference of one burner between the two pots, indicating the short-term was hammered harder than the mid-term, a typical imbalance where the seasoning is too strong but the main dish hasn’t absorbed the flavor yet.
The current order placement strategy is clear: Entry is set 3.5% below the current price, equivalent to turning the heat down one notch, waiting for it to revive on its own; Take Profit 1 is at +5.4%, to take out a small portion first and test the seasoning; Take Profit 2 is set at +7.3%, right at the mid-term Bollinger upper band, where the thick soup is reduced and taken off the heat, don’t be greedy; Stop Loss is pressed at -13.2%, the bottom line of the extra spicy chili—crossing this line is not seasoning, it’s burning through the intestines.
In terms of position allocation, $ATH can only be used as a "spice" now, controlling its proportion to 3% to 5% of the whole meal, never as the main dish. Mainstream coins are the broth, at best it’s a pinch of fragrant chili powder. RSI pulling back from oversold to 31 within a day shows the sellers’ hands are shaky, but until the temperature difference between short and long terms narrows, any heavy position is like splashing water into hot oil.
📈 Long:
Entry: Current price -3.5% (close to short-term lower band, waiting for a pullback to buy)
Take Profit 1: +5.4% (take a small portion first, lock in the broth flavor)
Take Profit 2: +7.3% (mid-term upper band, reduce and exit)
Stop Loss: -13.2% (chili line, turn off the heat if broken)
This dish is undercooked, lacking pot aroma, those daring to dig in should first consider their stomach—using the spice right enhances the flavor, too much and the whole pot of soup has to be thrown away. BTC fell to 80,000 early morning and then started to rebound. This is a rebound after the drop, not a trend reversal.
Trump said he wouldn't strike Iran before the election, oil prices fell, shorts covered, and the coin price was pulled from around 80,400 to 83,300. The trigger was geopolitical easing, not new buying.
The short-term remains bearish. The structure that fell from about 87,000 hasn't broken, the price is still below MA99 (around 84,000), and ETFs are also flowing out. Now it's just a technical rebound after holding 80,000. Bulls need to regain control, at least hold above 84,000 with volume. If it can't hold, the rebound ends and it may continue to test lower.
Superman 100U dollar-cost averaging $BTC, Day 56, purchase price: $83314.01, purchase amount: 0.0012 Hundred times long position floating profit, benefiting from the oversold rebound around the 4100 level.
$XAU Gold has recently been suppressed by US Treasury bonds, but the bulls' defense near 4100 is very strong, and the safe-haven trump card is still in play. I went long at 4138.8 with 100x leverage and reached 4188.7, +120%. Logic: large cycle oscillation, small cycle technical repair after oversold, stabilize and follow the long, rebound target resistance at 4200.
100x leverage is a double-edged sword; a 1% fluctuation determines life or death. After floating profit, I immediately set a bottom line to prevent paper profits from turning into losses.
For those who haven't entered, don't rush; there is heavy selling pressure between 4180-4200, wait for a pullback confirmation. $ZEC $BTC After a long period of consolidation, a direction must be chosen. $SOL broke down in this wave, with short positions gaining 450.71% profit.
Previously, the price oscillated repeatedly between 114-120, failing multiple times to break through the 120 level, with bullish strength continuously depleting. Once the key support at 114 was broken, contract longs triggered chain stop losses, accelerating the sell-off and directly leading to a one-sided downtrend.
Technically, the four-hour chart broke below the lower bound of the consolidation, short-term moving averages turned downward, volume shifted from shrinking during the rebound to expanding on the decline, fully confirming the bearish trend.
I entered a short position at 116.26, taking profits in batches, closing part of the position at each key support level, and holding the remaining with a trailing stop loss, riding the trend through the entire main downtrend. $ZEC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The moment the ECG flattens, you won't have any emotions—you'll only look for the lesion. $ACH current vital signs: a slight 2.12% rise over 24 hours, seemingly stable, but the short-term RSI has surged to 65.1, approaching the overbought red line. This is not a healthy heart rate; this is compensatory tachycardia.
The Bollinger Bands short-term position is at 114%, with the price pushed beyond the upper band. The vessel walls are under extreme pressure, and the lower band support is only at 2.7%. The mid-term Bollinger Bands position is 72%, with upper band resistance just 1.3% away—like a calcified coronary artery, blood flow barely passing through, ready to occlude at any moment. The long-term RSI is only 41.7, indicating this heart's long-term pumping ability remains weak.
The signal is clear: SELL. I won't be fooled by the 2.12% rebound; that's just the last gasp of a dying myocardium. The current price still has 1.8% room to rise from the entry point, which is the last anesthetic window for shorting. The first take-profit target is at -4.7%, the second at -3.4%, and the stop loss must be set at +11.2%—this is not conservative, it's to allow for unexpected bleeding during surgery.
📉 Short:
Entry: current price +1.8%
Take Profit 1: -4.7%
Take Profit 2: -3.4%
Stop Loss: +11.2%
The lesion has been located: short-term momentum failure combined with long-term insufficient blood supply, any rebound is a struggle before ventricular fibrillation. Open the chest, prepare for defibrillation.$QUANT: Long position at 241.3, current price 247.9, 50x leverage with a huge 145% profit! But don’t get carried away—the actual profit is only +0.06U, very light position for a small, enjoyable gamble. $BTC
Market update: Climbed out from a deep pit at 220.6, current price 247.9 precisely hits the MA20 resistance at 247.1, with moving averages densely packed (242.6/240.4) like a wall. The previous high of 270.0 is out of reach, 24h high of 249.9 is close at hand, a weak rebound on low volume—volume can’t keep up, so it’s a paper tiger. $ETH
The truth about 50x leverage: a 2% wick can wipe out 145% unrealized gains instantly. Light positions are fully taken off the table, regular and large positions are partially sold to keep a base. If it breaks below 242.6 (MA5) or loses 247.1 (MA20), exit immediately without hesitation. The entry price 241.3 is the last line of defense. Many traps ahead, only hold on to what’s secured as real money. #跟着OKX打卡2049 The most dangerous illusion on the chessboard is mistaking the opponent's sacrificed pieces for your own advantage. $AAVE is currently priced at $95.24, up 4.68% in 24 hours. The short-term RSI has already reached the overbought zone at 70.4, and the one-hour signal has long shown a bearish mark—this is not an opening expansion, but a bait pawn actively offered by the opponent in the midgame. I never chase highs in this situation; I calculate the next step of piece exchange.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands structure: the short-term price has already reached 132% position, standing above the upper band, with only 1.1% space left to the upper band and 4.9% buffer to the lower band—this is called a suspended pawn chain, with no support behind. Although the mid-term is only at 66%, it is also just 2.8% from the upper band. The dual-cycle resonance upward indicates the bullish fuel is burning out. The long-term RSI is only 55.9, neutral to weak, meaning this rally lacks endorsement from a major trend and is a lone pawn advancing, ready to be captured at any time.
My strategy is to bet against the trend: do not chase the rise, wait for the final surge to complete, then set the trap. Entry is set at $97.99, 2.9% above the current price, exactly where the opponent thinks the attack king has succeeded but has actually entered my exchange net. The first target is $87.10, a retracement of 8.5%; the second target is $90.03, a retracement of 5.5%. Stop loss is $109.29, 14.8% above the current price—this move exchanges a pawn for the entire diagonal line, with a risk-reward ratio manageable in my ledger.
The core of the endgame is never how many pieces you win, but how many choices the opponent has left. When overbought and high Bollinger Bands appear simultaneously, the opponent's moves are already exhausted.
📉 Short:
Entry: $97.99 (current price +2.9%)
Take Profit 1: $87.10 (-8.5%)
Take Profit 2: $90.03 (-5.5%)
Stop Loss: $109.29 (+14.8%)
In this game, I don't look at checkmate; I look at his lack of moves. #strategyplaybook