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Nonfarm payrolls and PCE double positive factors can't lift gold? It surged then immediately closed with a wick; next week this level will decide a 100-point trend!
This week, gold surged on the positive news of PCE and nonfarm payrolls,
but after the surge, it immediately faced pressure and fell back to close with a wick.
Twice it almost opened a 100-point upward space, but the bulls couldn't hold it.
Next week, closely watch the watershed level at 4213!
If the price effectively holds above 4213, the range will switch to 4213 to 4313;
if it continues to be pressured and can't break through, it will still oscillate between 4113-4213;
once it breaks the key support, the market will open downward space.
News stimuli only cause short-term fluctuations; the real direction depends on whether this watershed can be broken through. $XAU #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC shorted for a while, then watched the market back and forth; trading is also a process of self-mental cultivation.
After a rapid drop on October 4th, panic subsided and buying resumed. Entered long positions at 84606, with a small short position as a trial error plan.
Long positions have an unrealized profit of 70.73%, trial short positions have a slight loss, and the trial cost is within the acceptable range in advance.
In the short term, the market is viewed as range-bound; the choice of a major direction still requires waiting for a catalyst event. High leverage must strictly adhere to risk control bottom lines. $ZEC $ETH #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 About an hour ago, I spread out ETH's transactions over the past few days to compare—Friday's spot daily volume was about 440 million, dropped to 240 million on Saturday, and only reached about 34 million by noon today; the weekend is getting thinner and thinner. Spot price is around 2692, slightly up from Shanghai's opening at 2682; daily high touched 2697, daily low 2679. Amazon locks in nuclear power again: about 690 MW for 20 years, plus an additional 190 MW expansion, observing without chasing.
Saw Constellation's official announcement on September 30 that it signed a long-term power purchase agreement with Amazon for the Calvert Cliffs nuclear power plant, covering about 690 MW of electricity.
About 190 MW of the expansion is expected to be connected to the grid between 2030 and 2032, supporting over $3 billion in infrastructure investment in Maryland.
This long-term deal also helps extend the plant's lifespan by 20 years; the power still enters the PJM grid, not a dedicated line directly supplying data centers.
Simply put: AI computing power first pins down electricity prices and supply, which is a mid-to-long-term narrative, not a short-term theme that can be realized next week.
I think the market hasn't rushed in crazily; don't mythologize it as an overnight surge story. Let's first see if the price can hold steady.
Closed at $251.52 on Friday, up about 1.33%, with a high around $253.56 and a low around $250.02 that day, and average trading volume.
I'll observe first without chasing the high; if it holds around $253.56, then look at the upside space. If it falls below about $250.02, consider the narrative cooling off and the logic failing.
Do you value the locked-in power cost reduction space more, or think the expansion is too far out with no short-term flexibility?
$AMZN $MSFT $NVDA
#TheFed and ECB to release September meeting minutes
#BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue outflows#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
Next week, another big event is coming: the September meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will be released in close succession.
Let me break down the key points for you. The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the officials sounded pretty tough, saying inflation isn't dead and tightening must continue. But just a few days later, last week's nonfarm payroll data slapped that down—only 29,000 jobs were added in September, while expectations were 85,000, nearly three times higher. The market's expectations for an October rate hike immediately deflated.
Now releasing these meeting minutes is basically an after-the-fact move. Because the nonfarm data came out on October 2nd, the Fed didn't have that information during their September meeting.
So what does this mean for our crypto space? I'll give you two points.
First, the market will likely be volatile next week following these minutes.
Second, keep an eye on the ECB as well. If Europe also leans hawkish and both the US and Europe tighten simultaneously, global funding costs will rise further, making it even harder for Bitcoin to have an independent rally.
Here's my take.
Don't take these minutes too seriously. They reflect past events, but market operators are savvy—they like to use old news to shake out weak hands. The core logic still depends on upcoming inflation and employment data. The minutes can only affect short-term sentiment, not change the long-term trend.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH ETH liquidation pressure: Watch below at $2,558.43, watch above at $2,801.44
Data: ETH current price is about $2,700.19. $BTC
A drop of about 5.25% to around $2,558.43 may trigger concentrated liquidations of some high-leverage longs; $ETH
If the price rises about 3.75% to around $2,801.44, some high-leverage shorts may face concentrated liquidations.[Old Leek Observation]
$GENIUS may have a very interesting supply game coming up.
The second season has ended, and the project announced a new refund and burn mechanism:
Starting October 7, eligible users can apply for a refund to get back 100% of the Genius fees, but they must give up the GP obtained in the second season.
More importantly, the project team stated that the repurchased $GENIUS will be directly burned, and 0.945% of the supply will be automatically burned.
According to the project disclosure, 173 million GP were actually distributed in the second season, corresponding to up to about 6.055% of the total GENIUS supply.
In other words, what the market will be watching next is not "whether there will be an airdrop," but: how many people will choose to refund? And ultimately, how much GENIUS will be burned?In the past week, this giant whale is suspected to have first sold ETH at about $2709, then rebuilt the position around $2695.
Ai Yi (ChainCatcher/Odaily): About 4 hours ago, withdrew approximately 3,283.56 ETH from OKX, equivalent to about $8.85 million, exceeding the approximately 1,099 ETH previously deposited. Withdrawal does not mean all holdings are sold off or dumped; monitoring snapshots will change. At the time of writing, OKX ETH is about $2700. Not investment advice.$AXS Damn it! The AXS candlestick chart looks like it was gnawed by a dog, hovering around 1.37 back and forth for three days, a pure shakeout. 😂
Fundamentals? None. News? Blank. It's just the dog whales calling each other idiots inside, seeing who blinks first. But the order book is interesting, with dense support orders just below 1.37, this move won't lose.
I'll enter a starter position at 1.3719, stop loss if it falls below 1.34, and first target is 1.48 on the upside. Don't fomo, don't heavy load following others, dog whales flip faster than flipping a book.
If you want to secretly lay an ambush, check the card below, don't ask me why, just trust the market feel. What do you think?
👇👇👇
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, please make decisions cautiously, profits and losses are your own responsibility. This market has been draining lately, but today the charts finally gave us something to smile about. Let me share what happened with this round of trades. First, $AKE deserves a mention. Its 15-minute chart started showing strong momentum, with the token gaining close to 8% over 24 hours. My entry was around 0.0324, and price pushed toward 0.0351, giving the position roughly 25% profit. As long as the important support continues to hold, I’ll let the trend develop instead of rushing to close. I Can be revised into a shorter version more like Crypto Circle News + Capital Flow Watch:
Writing
🚨 Capital starts chasing high-volatility targets!
$BTC slightly up less than 1%, $STRK once surged 24%, market risk appetite clearly heating up.
📊 BTC: $85,262, key level at $85,400, holding above may trigger short covering; if it falls below $84,950, watch for pullback.
🔥 ZEC: $1,334.8, position growth 10.2%, $1,346 is the short-term watershed, break above targets $1,380.
🚀 STRK: $0.0545, positions surged 58.2%, profit-taking after rally. If $0.0525-$0.0530 holds steady, strong structure remains intact.
More coins are rising than falling in the market, GameFi strengthening simultaneously, capital is spreading from mainstream coins to high-volatility sectors.
Short-term strategy: wait for STRK and others to confirm pullback, do not chase highs; BTC holds $84,950, ZEC waits for $1,346 breakout confirmation.
If you want, I can also continue to revise it into a more “Crypto Influencer Viral Short Article” style, with more emotion and interaction. Five cryptocurrencies were named, with the reason being that they don't fall further
A highly viewed post grouped $BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC $UNI together.
It said they are the foundation, not the hot spots.
What does this number mean:
Among the five bottom cards, four are public chains, and one is an exchange token.
The so-called foundation means their respective chains are still running things.
Common misinterpretation:
Deep consensus does not equal price not falling.
A sharp drop is caused by panic selling and profit-taking together, which is different from whether the chain has stopped.
The approach given in the post is to hold the base position, be flexible, and switch positions if it falls.
Sounds stable, but actually assumes the fundamentals haven't deteriorated.
Whether the fundamentals are bad or not depends on on-chain data, not how much the price has dropped.
Those who don't move their base positions are betting that these five they hold won't fall behind.
This bet, the post didn't calculate for them.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 $BTC $ETH Big BTC and ETH battle?
"Institutions sacrifice ETH to protect BTC, nearly 600 million liquidated in a bloodbath of longs"
1. Capital Rift: Abandon ETH, Protect BTC
BTC ETFs have BlackRock holding firm, with net inflows exceeding 100 million in early October, though the pace has slowed compared to September. ETH is harshly abandoned, with ETFs seeing net outflows over 100 million for three consecutive days. Capital shows a stark contrast: BTC continues to attract funds, while incremental ETH buying is nearly exhausted.
2. Leverage Stranglehold: Liquidations and Cleansing
Over 580 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with longs accounting for more than half, resulting in a bloodbath. BTC funding rates have turned negative, signaling a retreat in leverage. Danger signal: ETH long-short ratio remains as high as 1.72, with retail investors stubbornly holding or even bottom-fishing during the decline. The main players won’t carry such a heavy burden to push prices up; the massive long liquidation zone below is like the Sword of Damocles, ready to trigger the final plunge at any moment.
3. Macro Tug-of-War: Rate Cuts vs. Inflation
Non-farm payrolls plunged, pushing the probability of no rate hikes in October to 80%, fueling expectations of easing. But Middle East tensions have driven energy prices higher, and the inflation ghost remains. Trump’s money distribution proposal is just an empty promise, a distant solution that won’t quench immediate thirst.
Core Summary:
Capital outflows, liquidation bloodbath, retail stubbornness, macro fragmentation. With extremely low volume, the market is like a powder keg, ready to explode at the slightest spark. $BTC $ETH Scrolling through the gainers list, I came across $PUMP, which rose 35% in 7 days and jumped another 9 points today.
Honestly, I dug around but didn’t find any solid story. These memecoin launch platforms always pitch the narrative as "the next big thing," but real money comes from capital rotation, not fundamentals.
Plus, it’s currently at its 7-day high, with volume only about 60% of usual — the rise is driven by existing holders pushing up, no new money coming in to take over. The scariest thing at this stage is when the first wave of profit-takers lets go, causing a free fall.
Let me say this upfront: if you haven’t gotten in yet, don’t chase it. Buying in at this point is just handing others a ladder. If you already hold it, hold on, but don’t add more; chasing those extra two or three points is like putting yourself on the fire. If you really want to get involved, wait for a pullback, let the volume shrink and stabilize, then reconsider. At this height, it’s just a trap for FOMO buyers. I won’t repeat what happens if it halves or goes to zero — everyone knows. $PUMP $BNB Damn it! The 787.2 order on BNB's order book keeps getting canceled and placed again. Is the market maker playing mind games here? The candlestick volume has shrunk and moved sideways for six hours, MACD is dulling at a high level, clearly a shakeout to accumulate strength. The resistance at 792 is tight, and the net capital outflow is getting more intense. Are you waiting to short here and catch a flying knife? I've already entered at 787.2, stop loss set at 793.5, target directly below 770. Don't ask, just know it's an ambush. 👇👇👇$ZEC two cycles in conflict, the key is not guessing the direction
$ZEC +1.51% in 24 hours, current price 1,328.4. On the surface, it's just a rise and fall, but the real conflict is hidden in the cycles: 1-hour is bullish, 4-hour is bearish. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it to the end.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 3.40% away from the 1-hour support at 1,283.17, and about 1.35% away from the resistance at 1,346.3. Putting the two distances together allows you to see which side needs more evidence. Looking only at the price change makes it easy to mistake the space already traveled as space not yet started.
Volume does not back the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.24 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
It’s easier to understand this phase of the market as equipment acceptance testing: running without load is not completion, stability under boundary conditions gives weight to conclusions. Let the key levels give results first, then talk about direction more honestly. Do you think the short cycle has already led the turn, or does the longer cycle still have stronger constraints? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Coin Circle NiuNiu speaking.Single Coin Spot Anomaly｜Last 15 Minutes
$ETH's final segment of active trades shifted from predominantly buying to predominantly selling: overall active buying was 61.0%, but in the last five minutes it dropped to 6.8%, with the price down by 0.07% during this period. The most recent trades and price have both weakened in sync, and the overall buying proportion will dilute the current changes.Writing
I haven't updated much or traded frequently recently. For now, I'm focusing on preparing for the spring exam 👊
Looking at $BTC, a clear "double top" pattern has formed in the short term. On Friday, it dropped steadily from around 87,000. My short positions rolled over and once turned 0.5U into 10U, but support appeared near 83,000. Currently, it has rebounded to about 85,000, back in the entry zone, with only a few hundred points left before liquidation.
My judgment remains cautiously bearish on a pullback. If the 83,000 support breaks, volatility could increase further. But since funds are limited now, I won't force it; focusing on exam prep is more important.
Life has its ups and downs; even heroes face lows. First, calm down and gather strength. When the wind comes, I'll surge to the skies in one go. 👊
#BTCSpotETFFlowsBackIn #ETHFundsKeepOutflowing #OKXPlanetTopicIsHere
If you want, I can also continue to make it sound more like a viral crypto influencer's short post, sharper and edgier.$300,000 lost just because of copying the wrong address.
Just saw this from GoPlus, and honestly, my first reaction was: this is the easiest trap for newcomers.
Simply put, someone puts some small change into your wallet, so that a fake address appears in your transaction history, almost identical to the one you want to send to.
You try to be quick and copy from the history, and the money is gone.
This time it was 305,000 DAI, not a small amount.
And now it's fully automated: finding targets, creating fake addresses, laundering money all in one go.
My attitude is straightforward: don’t be lazy, double-check the address from start to finish before transferring, and for large amounts, try sending a small test first.
No one on-chain will cover you; if you send to the wrong address, it’s your loss.
The most expensive thing in this industry has never been the fees, but the slip of the hand.
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $ZEC 1. Big Brother Maji
Big Brother Maji's Hyperliquid main account currently holds high-leverage long positions, with all PUMP positions fully closed.
- ETH: 35,182 units, 25x leverage long, average entry price 2689, liquidation price 2517
- BTC: 450 units, 40x leverage long, average entry price 84720, liquidation price 73501
- HYPE: 225,000 units, 10x leverage long, average entry price is relatively high, still at an unrealized loss
Based on current prices: ETH has a slight unrealized profit, BTC long position's unrealized profit is expanding, HYPE is still at an unrealized loss, overall the account has a slight unrealized profit.
2. Trend Judgment
Heavy positions in high-leverage longs, fully tied to the overall market. Currently, BTC and ETH are oscillating at high levels; as long as the market does not rapidly crash, the positions are temporarily safe; however, the 40x BTC leverage has very low tolerance for error, a rapid pullback will directly trigger forced liquidation.
3. Key Levels
BTC liquidation price at 73501; ETH liquidation price at 2517. The resistance above is BTC 85394 and ETH 2706. As long as the price holds above the liquidation line, the positions will not be liquidated; once it quickly breaks below the liquidation price, the exchange will automatically force liquidate.
4. Technical Aspect
His style is heavy positions with high leverage to bet on trends, adjusting positions anytime and able to close all positions with one click. Historically, he has repeatedly experienced large unrealized profits followed by rapid losses or even liquidation, classified as an aggressive short-term large trader, with rapid position changes and some delay in on-chain data.
5. Positioning Advice
Absolutely do not copy his trades. He is a large trader, #US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
If we were to narrate today's crypto market, it would be: just charging ahead moments ago, then pulling back in the blink of an eye. It's not a crash; institutions are just pocketing profits first.
Scene One: No ladder from macro
US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, with unemployment rising to 4.2%. $KITE short-term cycle looks weak first
For the short-term cycle, treat it as weak for now since the close has already fallen below the reference low point. The high and low points in the past few hours were 0.1544 / 0.14975 USDT, and the just-closed 5-minute candlestick was at 0.14877 USDT. However, this position is only a reference extreme and cannot be considered strong support; further confirmation is needed for a downward continuation.
The recent 15-minute volume is lighter than the previous few hours. Light volume indicates that the current breakdown lacks strong momentum, so the price may fluctuate. If it continues to decline with volume picking up, a downward continuation will be more credible; if the close returns above the previous low point, this weak outlook will be withdrawn for now.OKB stuck at 120｜Incentives remain, but the fire hasn't been lit 🔥
121 USD, locked between 116–123 for nearly a month. Daily trading volume often only a few million USD, market cap at 2.55 billion, with such low volume.
In September, it rose from around 105 to 121, about +8% for the month. The high on September 22 reached 126.5, but hasn't gone beyond since. Still about 47% below the peak from a year ago. This isn't a crash, it's digestion. Without new buying pressure, the price will just grind.
On-chain data and coin price are disconnected.
1 X Layer's TVL rose from about 126 million to 172 million in September, a month-over-month increase of +36%. However, deposits are down about 10% from the September 28 peak of 187 million, with roughly 68% concentrated in a single lending market.
2 Incentives remain but have shrunk. The second round of RWA liquidity is actually about 100,000 USD; the Meme trading competition had 49,000 USD and has ended; the ongoing PAXGy pool only has 10,000 USD, ending on October 9.
3 In August, Boost could still distribute over 2 million USD in a single month. Now, single distributions are mostly tens of thousands to a hundred thousand. This level of subsidy can't move the spot market.
The gas narrative hasn't materialized yet. Every swap burns OKB, with over 1.5 million contracts deployed; the official claim is a 500% increase in half a year. So far, consumption hasn't resulted in visible deflation or buybacks, and activity doesn't reflect in the coin price.
Focusing on two windows in the past two weeks.
📌 October 6–7, Singapore OKX Dev Day. Just a hackathon award ceremony, limited impact; a bigger ecological fund, channels for projects to enter spot or futures, or a gas burn mechanism would create a stronger narrative.
📌 October 9, PAXGy ends. If deposits can rebound to 187 million, it shows some aren't just chasing subsidies; if it falls below 150 million, half of September's gains will be given back.
Range boundaries: breaking above 123–126 with volume counts as a breakout; falling below 116, next support is around 110 from the September platform.
One pitfall: don't mistake "incentives remain" as a catalyst. It's just the floor now, not the fire. If subsidies stop but users remain, or if OKX provides a mechanism to directly feed OKB supply and demand, then the 120 level might be broken.
Are you watching TVL more, or Dev Day?
#OKB #XLayer #ExchangeToken
$OKB #VanEck: Bitcoin may continue to expand its market share. The core logic comes from the capital tilt brought by the opening of compliant channels. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has become the preferred entry point for traditional institutional allocation, with registered investment advisors, high-net-worth clients, corporate treasuries, and sovereign funds entering in batches. Compared to other crypto assets, Bitcoin's asset attributes are simple and liquidity is the strongest; institutional funds prioritize BTC, and capital will continuously flow from altcoins to Bitcoin, increasing its dominant share in the entire crypto market.
At the same time, Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased compared to previous cycles, asset maturity has improved, and more institutions regard it as an alternative inflation-hedging asset in their portfolios, alongside gold. Against the backdrop of ongoing US fiscal pressure and high long-term bond yields fluctuating at elevated levels, capital will continue to seek hard assets that can hedge against currency depreciation.
However, this does not mean all crypto assets benefit simultaneously. VanEck implies a judgment: this round is a typical capital differentiation market, with compliant large funds avoiding most small coins, and capital further concentrating on Bitcoin.
Constraints need to be noted. If macro conditions rapidly shift, liquidity tightens significantly, or crypto regulations tighten again, this trend will be interrupted. Additionally, current BTC and ETH spot ETFs often experience simultaneous capital outflows; short-term capital fluctuations can only be seen as a medium- to long-term trend, not a one-sided market. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ROBO is basically flat after bouncing off the 0.007946 low. Trading at 0.008489, up just 0.43% today but down 9.86% on the week and 29.43% over 30 days. Price has stabilized after that steep slide from 0.010248. Is this a base forming, or does $ROBO have more downside ahead?
#USNFPDataCools The big coin is currently oscillating around 85200 in the four-hour cycle, with three mid-to-long-term market scenarios analyzed.
First, if it effectively holds above the 86100 resistance level, the bullish trend will continue. For mid-to-long-term longs, 85800 is a reference point, with the upper target looking at the previous high of 87200. Incremental funds entering the market will continue to squeeze shorts.
Second, if it repeatedly tests but fails to break 86100, early low-position chips will gradually take profits and exit. For mid-to-long-term shorts, 85900 is a reference, with the first pullback target at 83500 and a deep retracement looking at the key support of 82200.
Third, it maintains a large range oscillation between 82800 and 86100, with neither bulls nor bears willing to establish a clear direction, waiting for external news to break the deadlock. Both sides are prone to frequent spikes that trigger stop losses.
I currently hold 0.153 $ETH with 50x leverage long positions. If the big coin does not break out of the range, Ethereum is unlikely to have an independent rally. Considering volume, I personally lean towards the second scenario, as high-level volume continues to decline, increasing the risk of a bull trap and pullback.
Follow your uncle here, don’t be fooled or suffer losses.
$BTC $ETH
#ZEC rises to 10th in cryptocurrency market cap #Robinhood chain revenue drives ARB up over 50% in two days #Earnings watcher: Oracle and Adobe about to report#zec Let's talk about the current market situation.
$ETH is oscillating back and forth within the range.
Although there is news of large withdrawals, the price hasn't broken out accordingly.
The resistance above is quite solid; chasing the rally isn't worthwhile, consider shorting on rallies.
Attack level: 2740; Defense level: 2788
$BTC is moving slightly upward, appearing strong, but it's still a consolidation market.
The news of old addresses waking up has more psychological impact than actual effect.
Before a volume breakout, shorting at high levels is also a strategy.
Attack level: 83450; Defense level: 85860
$ZEC had some positive news, but only a slight rebound.
The previous downtrend hasn't fully subsided; the positive news can't change the short-term pressure.
Treat the rebound as a shorting opportunity; position size must not be heavy.
Attack level: 1285; Defense level: 1370
#ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元
Not sure if everyone plans to buy the dip or run away on rallies? 【Xiaoming Market Watch】
The U.S. Senate has introduced a new crypto tax bill called ADAPT. Is it another move to squeeze retail investors?
The Treasury directly says, don’t get weak-kneed just because you hear "tax"—this time it’s not about grabbing money, but about opening up the books. The biggest problem in the crypto industry is that tax rules are as vague as drawing maps in the desert. ADAPT aims to do three things: first, exempt small payments from tax, so you won’t have to fill out a bunch of forms for a few dollars of capital gains when buying a coffee; second, clarify when staking and mining income should be taxed—whether tax is due upon receipt or only after selling; third, require exchanges and brokers to report to the IRS, so retail investors don’t have to guess anymore.
What’s the impact on Bitcoin? In the short term, compliance costs will definitely rise, but in the long term, it’s a ticket for institutions to enter. Clear rules mean big money will dare to jump in, otherwise they’re always afraid of being audited. But the Treasury needs to emphasize, there’s no such thing as "only cuts, no increases" in taxes—if the details raise tax rates, that’s also bearish.
Tax law is a long-term foundation; in the short term, we still have to watch the Fed’s mood.$PONS 🔥 Buyback Update
The biggest change isn’t the price — it’s the automation.
Protocol fees now flow through a 7-day cycle, with buybacks running continuously at roughly 1.8–2 ETH/hour.
Around $0.9M remains for upcoming buyback rounds.
Fees → Vault → TWAP Buyback → Burn 🔥
The key now: watch real fee revenue, buyback volume, and burns.
If revenue grows while supply keeps shrinking, $PONS could get interesting. DYOR/NFA.$SOL is really strong in the crypto market today, everything is rising, and SOL has even reached 121.
According to what we said a couple of days ago, if the 115-117 level cannot be broken downward, a rebound is expected.
But currently, the rebound is very strong; while it's an opportunity, there is also a risk of an upward breakout.
The current market is in a corrective rebound after a decline, having pulled up to 121, which is a large range consolidation.
If the consolidation continues, adding positions at the 121 divergence point is a good choice.
$BTC Bitcoin is also rebounding, currently reaching a high of 85300, close to the midline of the recent downtrend.
From a technical perspective, this is also a recent consolidation high; going higher would attempt to break the previous high.
Now 85300 might be a good short entry point; if consolidation continues, it may return to 83000 ETH $2700 is the boundary between bullish and bearish. It must hold above 2700 on the hourly level to reach 2742; otherwise, it will definitely retest the 2654 support. On the hourly level, the last three candlesticks are not optimistic, and the current volatility is too low, so we can only wait. What signals to wait for? First, a volume-backed breakout above 2708, then light position right-side long entry with a stop loss, targeting 2742~2780. Second, a volume-backed breakdown below 2686, right-side short entry, on the 4-hour level breaking 2686 looking at 2654~2633.ETH is currently at a critical directional decision point. The technical bullish structure is intact, but momentum has completely dropped to zero, with the market repeatedly consolidating before the $2,710 resistance level. The core trigger condition for the bullish scenario (higher probability) is a daily close with volume breakout above $2,710.90, which would open the path toward the upper Bollinger Band at $2,849, with a 30-day target of $3,000. The bearish risk lies in retail positions being overly concentrated—if the bulls fail to break through, the market may first move down to clear stop losses, testing support at $2,669 or even the $2,576 area, with a probability of about 40%.
The Sepolia test upgrade of Glamsterdam is the most important recent ecological catalyst, but the real price-driving force still awaits confirmation of the mainnet activation date. In short: below $2,710 is a consolidation zone; only a break and hold above it is the true starting gun. High-level consolidation with underlying currents stirring, the market is consolidating at a high level with reduced volume, but capital flows are active beneath the surface.
$BTC: Hovering at a high level, approaching the overbought zone. Outside the market, well-known trader Killa has publicly warned that the crypto market may undergo "de-risking" after the midterm elections. With a lack of new macro capital inflows currently, bullish momentum is waning, making chasing highs at this position very low in cost-effectiveness, and capital is more inclined to defend.
$ETH: Repeatedly tugging at the 2700 level. Although spot is weak, derivatives are extremely active—whale positions on the Hyperliquid platform reach as high as $9.297 billion. Massive funds are betting in the contract market, meaning ETH’s short-term volatility could be amplified at any time. Without independent narratives to support it, it can only passively endure intense fluctuations with simultaneous long and short liquidations.
$SOL L: The most resilient among mainstream coins. The underlying logic remains ecosystem-driven; Stonk launched a "community coin" and returns 33% of Meme holders’ rewards back to the ecosystem. Solana is highly skilled at converting on-chain traffic directly into liquidity locked in staking, maintaining relative price strength, but caution is needed for short-term pullback pressure after overbought indicators.
The market lacks fuel for a systemic breakthrough, with each coin competing within its own logic. When macro uncertainty increases, avoid betting on one-sided moves, protect profits, and wait for genuine breakout signals. #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 _______________________________BTC spot ETF quickly returned to net inflows after a brief outflow, with inflows of 103 million and 31.7 million USD on October 1 and 2 respectively, showing a sharp contrast to the continuous outflows of ETH. This is bullish for BTC, indicating that institutions are still willing to buy the dip during the pullback, favoring BTC over ETH, which helps support the price.
However, the inflow scale is far below the nearly 1 billion USD peak on September 21, indicating limited buying strength. Coupled with US Treasury yields remaining above 5.3%, BTC's rebound potential is still suppressed. In the short term, ETF fund inflows can provide support but are unlikely to drive a trend upward, with a high probability of maintaining range-bound fluctuations. The key is whether subsequent inflows can continue to expand. If net inflows persist for multiple days and scale increases, BTC is expected to stabilize and test upper resistance; if it weakens again, defense will remain the main strategy._______________________________In two more days, BTC will have set a new all-time high of $126,000, marking exactly one full year.
Around this time last year, many were still shouting $150,000, $200,000. A year later, BTC is still hovering around $85,000, while QNT, Midnight, PUMP, and earlier NEAR, ARB, UNI, ZEC, HYPE have already moved first.
When BTC consolidates sideways, funds look for elasticity. Those with income are picked out, and old coins that have fallen deeply look like they could double on a rebound. Compared to the high in October last year, most are still deeply underwater.
But this National Day, the one I most want to wait for a pullback to continue adding to my position is still BTC.
Not because it has fallen the most, but because even in the toughest market conditions, there are still people backing it with real money.
In September, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.65 billion. US September new jobs were only 29,000, far below market expectations. After the data came out, BTC quickly touched $87,000.
The signal behind this is very direct: as long as macro conditions ease even slightly, the first reaction of funds is still to buy BTC.
If it returns to $82,000–$84,000, I will consider adding more to my position; if it truly stabilizes above $88,000, I will then look for a few targets to lay in wait among altcoins.
BTC itself hasn’t even broken through yet; heavy positions in altcoins too early can easily lead to BTC dropping 3% while altcoins drop 15% first.
At this stage, I’d rather earn less from the initial altcoin rally than enter early and have the little brothers go down with the big brother who hasn’t yet stabilized.The most profitable on-chain project in the past 7 days has changed. The token issuance platform pump.fun earned $11.66 million, up 42% week-on-week, surpassing the perpetual trading protocol's $11.09 million (down 28% week-on-week) to take first place.
Its own DEX also squeezed into the top 10, bringing in $4.43 million. Together, the two made $16.1 million in one week. Similar token issuance platforms dropped 42% week-on-week, showing this business is clearly concentrating at the top.
Looking at the top 10, four are helping with trading, but the most profitable on-chain activity remains "trading" itself. The token price also moved accordingly, rising about 18% in 24 hours, now around 0.0063. Do you think it can hold first place next week? $PUMP#贝森特：US Treasury yield rise aligns with global trend
_______________________________Besent's statement that "US Treasury yield rise aligns with global trend" is essentially a form of expectation management "firefighting," bearish for BTC in the short term, with the medium term depending on the interest rate inflection point.
Core logic: The high level of 5.34% on the long-end US Treasury yield is the key anchor suppressing BTC valuation. After the cooling of non-farm payrolls, yields briefly fell then quickly rebounded, indicating persistent market concerns about inflation and fiscal deficits, suppressing rate cut expectations. Besent's call cannot lower real interest rates, making it difficult for BTC to attract incremental funds, limiting the rebound's height.
If yields remain high, BTC will likely stay volatile or even dip; only when long-term rates confirm a peak will BTC have a chance for a trending rise. Currently, excessive optimism is unwarranted; focus on whether the 10-year US Treasury yield can fall below 5%._______________________________$ETH hovers around 2700. The lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls acted like a short-term stimulant; $BTC and $ETH briefly surged, with ETH reaching the 2750 level and BTC approaching 87000 before giving back gains. After the data release, long-term yields initially fell but then recovered some ground, indicating the market's easing expectations are not firm.
Baysent stepped in to reassure, emphasizing that the global rise in long-term yields is not due to large-scale selling of U.S. Treasuries or shifting to other countries' bonds. This statement can stabilize sentiment but is unlikely to eliminate pricing discrepancies. My view is that large institutions and sovereign funds holding U.S. Treasuries must weigh default and political risks; smaller funds appear to have lower risk on the surface, but the real trouble is liquidity losses that cannot be realized promptly in extreme situations.
Some traders are choosing to short BTC, possibly betting on future liquidity tightening or renewed geopolitical and macro tensions. If long-term yields rise again and rate cut expectations cool, the probability of risk assets coming under pressure increases. In the short term, ETH around 2700 and BTC near 87000 are emotional touchstones; if rebounds lack volume, the bearish narrative will still dominate and is worth watching.🎉Market outlook for the evening of October 4th.🎉
Friends, don’t panic when it drops, and don’t get overexcited when it rises. The current market is low volume, weak, and hovering around key levels 😅
1. What’s BTC doing?
- It’s back near 84665, inside the triangle.
- But look at the volume—it’s like it hasn’t had any water, no volume at all.
- Rising without volume? That’s like trying to climb stairs on an empty stomach—you won’t get far.
- The author thinks even if it rebounds, it will only reach around 85500, no higher.
2. Why not rush to go long?
- It has only tested 83865 once, like hopping on one leg.
- You can hop, but you can’t run far.
- It’s best to wait for another test of 83865 to form a "double bottom"; only then is going long safer.
- A simple analogy:
A house with only one pillar foundation will collapse in the wind; two pillars are needed for stability.
3. The real reason not to panic
- This rise started from 82555–83142.
- As long as this "starting zone" isn’t broken, don’t scare yourself.
- If the starting zone holds = hourly timeframe is still bullish; small dips are normal.
- Only if it truly breaks below 82555–83142 should you consider "oh, it might turn bearish."
4. Key lines to remember for trading
BTC:
- Volume-backed break above 84884 → aggressive traders can go long
- Volume-backed break below 84533, and rebound can’t recover → can go short
- If it can’t hold 84884, don’t get excited; 85508 and 86370 above are just targets for now
- 4-hour break below 84533 → watch 83840, 83142
Resistance: 84884 / 85508 / 86370
Support: 84533 / 83840 / 83142
5. ETH is similar
- Volume-backed break above 2697 → go long
- Volume-backed break below 2676 → go short
- Retracement to 2610 holds → can add a small long position, stop loss below 2563
- Rise near 2775 → can flip to short, exit if breaks 2806
- Left-side wick zone 2539 can be a bottom buy, but if it breaks 2494, admit the mistake
ETH Resistance: 2697 / 2743 / 2775
ETH Support: 2676 / 2632 / 2610
6. Summary in one sentence
This is not a "frenzied bull market" nor the "start of a crash."
BTC’s starting zone hasn’t broken, so don’t panic; but don’t chase breakouts without volume either.
Wait for retracements, volume increase, and confirmation—this is a hundred times more important than blindly opening positions.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
$ETH
$BTC Haven't updated posts much recently, and trading has been less frequent? The blogger is busy reviewing and preparing for the spring exam 👊
Looking at the current $BTC Bitcoin pattern, it formed a double top. On Friday, it dropped from 87k all the way down on a short, even rolling the position! Turned 0.5u into 10u, but it seems to have found support around 83k! It has now rebounded to about 85k, back to the entry price! Just a few hundred points away from liquidation. I believe Bitcoin is due for a significant correction, but there’s currently no capital, so I can only be bearish without any power to act 😭
Focus on studying hard for the exam first!
Qin Qiong sold his horse to save face, Yang Zhi once sold his treasured sword.
Cao Cao retreated defeated through Huarong Trail, Zhong Da endured humiliation by dressing as a woman and smiling.
Han Xin suffered humiliation under the crotch, King Yue once ate feces to avenge.
The imperial uncle wove mats and sold shoes, the great ancestor begged and lived in a temple.
Heroes all have times of hardship, how can ordinary people not bow?
Once ashore, we rise with the wind, showing our sharpness and soaring to the skies.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#OKX星球话题来啦 Rocket launch! The veteran leader in the metaverse suddenly explodes.
On the evening of October 4th, $SAND maintained strong momentum in the short term. Combining the opening average price of 0.07403 with the current mark price of 0.07737, the bottom long positions have stable floating profits.
Recently, the three major Korean exchanges including Upbit lifted trading warnings, and with the Studio engine expected to go live this month, the fundamentals have strong catalysts, driving a violent surge on the hourly chart.
The trading logic is to bet on the exhaustion of negative news and version updates. In the short term, watch out for profit-taking pressure and beware of a pullback after a spike, with support around 0.068. $ZEC $SOL
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 "The Treasury Arms Race: BTC Becomes a New Option on Corporate Balance Sheets"
Strategy keeps buying, multiple treasuries are increasing their positions simultaneously. This is not a one-off speculation; it's a trend where companies treat BTC as "digital gold + inflation hedge" on their balance sheets. Retail FOMO is temporary, treasury allocation is long-term.
What's the difference? Retail watches candlesticks, treasuries watch cycles. Strategy keeps buying because it treats BTC as a reserve asset, not a trading instrument. Multiple companies following suit shows this logic is being replicated, not an isolated case.
Mid-term approach: BTC spot/ETF is the main line, treasury stocks are only for swing trading. Don't treat MSTR as BTC itself; it's just a proxy, premiums and discounts may occur.
The real signal is the combination of "Fed easing + new custody regulations implementation." Only then will treasury buying shift from emotion-driven to cash flow logic. We're still in the buildup phase now; the direction is right, but the pace is slow.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 There has been a recovery, but the strength varies significantly among different coins, meow 😼
For now, I don't consider the partial rise as a full bullish reversal; I will focus more on how much of the gains remain during pullbacks.
$BEAT performed better today than last night, around 0.0882, recovering about 4% from the 24-hour low, but still below the range high near 0.089.
I think the focus has shifted from "will it continue to fall" to "how far can this rebound go."
Let's first see if it can surpass around 0.089. If it retreats near there, it means upward momentum is still weak; only if it breaks through and the pullback is shallow can we have grounds to be more bullish.
The current recovery is commendable, but price rebound alone doesn't confirm how much new capital has entered.
$SOL returned above 120 today, rising about 1.7% over the past week, which is a relatively mild increase.
My stance is slightly optimistic but not at a level of obvious acceleration.
If the market pulls back later, and $SOL retreats less and then rises further, the strength will become clearer.
No need to rush to set very high targets now; first, let's see if the price can push upward step by step.
$LINK I am a bit more cautious; although it returned near 14, it still fell nearly 3% over the week.
It currently needs to recover lost ground; today's small rise is not enough to change the short-term outlook.
If the upcoming rebound shows no progress, continue to watch more and act less. Only when recovery speed and upward momentum improve will I increase my attention.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC 4h long, RSI 58.4 mid-level; 1h RSI 70.4 upper edge, MACD upward
Range: 84851–84939 (1h pullback zone), currently above range, waiting for pullback
Timing: Slightly high above range, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends once upper target is reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target: 87222
Invalidation: Break below 84016
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Enter only after pullback
$SEI 4h long, RSI 53.2 slightly high; 1h RSI 61.6 upper edge, MACD upward
Range: 0.0714–0.0717 (1h pullback zone), currently above range, waiting for pullback
Timing: Slightly high above range, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends once upper target is reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Upside target: 0.0747
Invalidation: Break below 0.0699
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Enter only after pullback
For analysis only, not advice or order instruction.The banking narrative really isn't appealing anymore. After the Seoul conference ended and the lively presence of the four major banks dispersed, the price of $XRP is even lower than before the event.
Even though 6.68 million ETF tokens flowed back on Friday and institutional channels remain active, the downward trend of the coin price couldn't be stopped. This indicates that the selling pressure above 1.55 is thicker than expected.
XRPN's listing on Nasdaq next week is a potential catalyst, and the XRP treasury stock channel has widened again, but such news hasn't been able to drive the spot market recently, so don't go heavy in advance. Until the range breaks, it's a market for selling high and buying low; chasing breakouts is a big no-no.This on-chain anomaly is bearish for BTC's short-term sentiment, but the actual selling pressure is limited. A whale dormant for 13 years has realized profits exceeding $67 million. Small transfers are usually seen as tests, and the market worries about subsequent transfers to exchanges for cashing out, which suppresses short-term buying sentiment. However, 801 BTC, valued at about $68 million at current prices, accounts for a small portion of daily trading volume, and even if all were sold, it would hardly change the trend. The key is what happens next: if transferred to exchanges, it could trigger a short-term pullback; if it's just wallet reorganization, the impact can be ignored. Currently, BTC is still mainly driven by US Treasury yields and ETF capital flows. The awakening of such old coins is more of a disturbance and does not constitute a directional driver.Big Brother Maji's move this time is really decisive, I'm envious
PUMP was completely liquidated in one go, with the total position steady at 146 million USD
Cut off marginal positions, gathered all scattered funds back, clearly preparing for a new move
Let's take a look at Big Brother's latest holdings data:
$BTC 378 coins, average price 84,700, floating profit 152,900
Liquidation price dropped sharply to 65,200, defense line much more stable
Recently repeatedly selling high and buying low at this level, the rhythm is quite precise.
$ETH 36,000 coins, average price 2,688, floating profit back to 610,000
But burning a sky-high funding fee of 1.23 million daily, liquidation price pressed down to 2,495
Although profits remain, defensive pressure is still huge, relying entirely on a strong foundation from earlier
$HYPE holdings reduced to 174,000 coins, average price 89.72, currently a slight profit of 65,200
Liquidation price dropped to 45, risk released very cleanly.
After clearing PUMP, Big Brother's 146 million portfolio basically only has BTC, ETH, and HYPE as the three cores
Cutting off marginal positions cleanly shows he doesn't want to diversify funds now, planning to focus on defending mainstream coins
With the market grinding back and forth now, better to keep your bullets ready first, and wait for the direction to become clear before making a move #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will release the minutes of the September meetings, and macro liquidity expectations may indirectly influence high-beta tokens like UNI. I tend to expect short-term volatility. Currently at 9.024, down 1.8% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 6.232 million, average liquidity. The 4-hour chart is still declining, down 15.76% from the high, the 1-hour rebound is 3.92% from the low, funding rate is only 0.0003%, open interest is 5.528 million, sentiment is neutral. Order book buy/sell ratio is 1.16, buyers slightly dominant, 8.936 is key support, 9.205 is resistance. Strategy: lightly buy on a pullback near 8.95, stop loss at 8.81, target 9.18; or short on a rebound at 9.18, stop loss at 9.31, target 9.02. Position size no more than 20%, reduce before the minutes.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$UNI#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $UNI $AKE I'm really 🌿, ake is starting to surge again, it's really killing me! It was originally just a 2% drop away, I would have taken profit and run... just like pons! Both at about the same point, then suddenly reversed and surged!
Account balance is plummeting, is the market maker targeting my position to kill me?!!
You have to be very clear-headed and an extremely skilled trader to make money in this market!!!!According to data, Solana has returned to the No. 2 spot in spot trading volume
Previously, people thought Solana was just "active on-chain," especially with meme coins and stablecoin swaps
The trading volume was mainly on decentralized exchanges
But if you take the entire network's spot trading volume of Solana and directly compare it with centralized exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and Coinbase:
Binance is still the leader (nearly 750 billion)
Solana is already second (close to 200 billion)
Surpassing Bybit and Coinbase
Solana is no longer just "active on-chain," its trading volume can now directly compete with mainstream centralized exchanges
On-chain trading is eating into the market share of centralized exchanges, and Solana is the strongest player in this trend
For ordinary people, this means "the Solana ecosystem is really getting stronger, with more users and more trading, no longer just empty hype"
Of course, high trading volume doesn't necessarily mean the price will rise, but it is indeed a very solid fundamental signal