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I used to dread Mondays the most.
When the alarm went off, I felt weighed down. Now it's the opposite; the day I look forward to the most is Monday.
The market is closed for two days over the weekend, so there's nothing to do but wait. Wait for the market to give its own answer.
Over the weekend, I reviewed on-chain data and found a detail most people overlooked: in SanDisk's open options contracts, the call option open interest shrank by nearly 30% over the past week, while put options actually increased.
Institutions are betting real money on a decline, while retail investors are still fixated on breaking through 1800.
Another signal is that the futures discount in the storage chip sector is widening.
The market's expectation for future spot prices is shifting from shortage to surplus.
Toshiba just announced a 60 billion yen expansion in HDD production capacity, Seagate plunged 15% in one day, and Western Digital dropped 10%. Once the supply side loosens, price wars never wait for anyone.
SanDisk's own revenue guidance for next quarter is already below expectations, the CEO has cashed out over 100 million twice, and the legal officer reduced 600 shares last week.
The people inside the company who know its true value best are all leaving.
Indecision leads to chaos.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 $FIL is 10 days away from the official FIL halving, which will take place on October 15th. It's uncertain whether this halving will boost FIL's price and trigger a rally similar to the one on November 7th last year. As of now, it seems very difficult to see a rally before October 15th unless after the holiday, Ethereum and Bitcoin continue to surge upward, driving FIL to leverage the halving benefits for a strong upward push.$BTC This wave of rally is very strong, but I am not in a hurry to call the return of a big bull market.
Previously, it oscillated and consolidated for a long time around the 81600 range, then broke through and surged all the way to 87374. After a brief pullback, it stabilized again above 86000. From the daily chart perspective, the price has clearly deviated from the Bollinger middle band, the short-term bullish momentum is strong, but that does not mean blindly chasing the rise will guarantee profits.
This round of rise is supported by news: US September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market has revised its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, and BTC has taken this opportunity to rally.
Compared to the single-day increase, I am more concerned about the sustainability going forward.
87500 is the current key resistance level; whether it can hold firmly with volume is far more critical than a single big bullish candle. If the price meets resistance and falls back after the surge, be cautious of late buyers chasing the top. On the downside, support is first seen at the 85000 level, then at around 83000 for buying strength.
A trading reminder to myself: a breakout can be bullish, but being bullish does not mean ignoring entry cost.
A strong market does not mean every price level is suitable for entry. The most painful thing is never missing out, but seeing the direction correctly yet losing money because of rushing to chase the high.$GRASS
Grass represents a different corner of crypto infrastructure, where distributed networks are designed around collecting and supplying data. The concept becomes more interesting as demand for large-scale data grows alongside AI development. But the economic model still needs to prove that data demand can translate into sustainable network usage and meaningful value for participants rather than short-lived incentive-driven activity.📊 Current $BTC Situation
The price is around $85,900 after a strong rise to $86,994, then a rejection and a quick drop to the $85,200–85,300 area, and now there is a rebound.
Averages:
* MA5 = $85,968
* MA10 = $86,193
* MA20 = $85,772
The price is currently just above MA20, but still below MA5 and MA10, so the rebound has not yet turned into a confirmed uptrend.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
The most important thing now is to recover $86,000–86,200 and hold above it.
If an hourly candle closes above $86,200:
* 🎯 $86,400
* 🎯 $86,600
* 🎯 $86,950–87,000 retesting the peak
Breaking through $87,000 $BTC BTC vs ETH: the real divergence isn't whales it's yield. ETH staking rate sits at 3.2% while BTC offers 0%. That gap is pulling a different class of holder: ETH exchange reserves just hit a multi-year low, while BTC reserves sit at 2.68M also low, but for different reasons.
One is locked for yield, the other is simply leaving. Your read?To be honest, I myself thought it was risky for this trade to survive until now; luck played a big part. Yesterday at dawn, I saw that $CT support hadn't broken, the bottom was consolidating sideways, and buying pressure was gradually strengthening, so I suggested a light long position trial.
Entered at 0.3767, current price 0.4370, floating profit +321.74%, the result is clear. Take profit on 70% of the position first, keep the remaining 30% at cost price as protection, don't be greedy for the last bit.
The market waits to be timed, profits come from holding. Panic comes from lack of plan, losses come from overthinking.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify immediately.
$ADA $BTC Recently, many friends have started to be optimistic about ETH, discussing market reversals and long-term value. It's worth calmly taking a look at the current market situation.
The market briefly rebounded to around 2700, prompting many voices to fantasize about a "ten-thousand-dollar target," but many holders actually have costs above 3000 or 4000.
The ETH/BTC ratio has long oscillated around 0.03, failing to achieve a strong turnaround for years.
From a fundamental perspective, the mainnet Gas cost is relatively high, daily usage thresholds are high, and the ecosystem relies more on the L2 sector for growth; on the market side, during the price rebound phase, the foundation has been continuously reducing holdings, Vitalik has also been selling steadily, and ETF funds are still in a state of continuous outflow.
Considering the current global macro environment, when BTC tested the 87k level, there was a large whale sell-off, and market selling pressure should not be underestimated.
A short-term rebound does not equal a trend reversal. Many optimistic expectations are more the hopeful visions of holders. When making judgments, everyone should rationally view BTC, cautiously consider various narratives, and not be swept up by short-term emotions.
---#ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #This week the Fed will release the September meeting minutes
The expectation for a rate hike in October has plummeted, and many have already started popping champagne, but experienced investors advise: stay calm.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, employment hit the brakes directly, and the probability of a rate hike in October dropped to 17%. The market has shifted from fearing a rate hike to betting on a pause.
For the crypto world, the looming threat has slightly moved away, which is somewhat positive, but don’t expect BTC to suddenly skyrocket.
The reality is: no new external funds have entered the market. BTC is fluctuating around 85,000, ETF funds are being selective, and the 30-year US Treasury yield remains stubbornly pinned at a high of 5.6%.
Even if there is truly no rate hike in October, it only temporarily defuses one risk; it doesn’t mean liquidity will immediately flood in, and hot money won’t rush in overnight.
Keep your spare cash, patiently wait for sentiment to fully clear and create a golden buying opportunity, then pick up chips.
The rate hike alarm has temporarily eased, but the big market move hasn’t arrived yet. The crypto world’s worst fear is to fall just before dawn; only those who endure will profit ⚡
Let’s talk, do you think if the rate hike pauses in October, BTC can reach 90,000? $BTC $ETH $ZEC BTC投资周报｜第1 3期（长期屯饼专属·大周期研判）2026.10.5. 风险提示：以下内容仅为链上数据与大周期逻辑科普梳理，不构成任何投资建议。加密货币交易波动极大、国内不受法律保护，所有操作严格遵循个人交易体系与风险承受能力。 一、本周核心总结论 当前BTC处于牛市初期震荡上行阶段，彻底脱离熊市底部区间，估值中性，无泡沫过热信号。 本周价格数据：BTC现价$84800；本轮周期高点$126000，当前距离顶部下跌32.7%；本轮周期底部$58500，自底部上涨44.9% 持仓现状：底仓100%维持不动，不做任何减仓、调仓操作。短期震荡洗盘属于牛市初期常态，不改变长期持仓逻辑，继续每周跟踪链上指标，等待牛市中段升温，只在多指标共振出现牛市顶部信号时执行30%-40%减仓计划。 二、本周关键指标数据（周线级别·大周期口径） 统计时间：本周周线收盘 1. CBBI牛市指数：49，中性区间，未进入牛市狂热区间（阈值≥90视为顶部预警） 2. MVRV Z-Score：1.05，估值中性，远未到达历史牛市顶部高估值区间（≥5为过热） 3. RHODL Ratio：7#The US-Iran situation remains tense, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves
The G7 reserve release confirms the crisis rather than resolves it; 100 million barrels spread over 4 months only covers 2.5% of global demand. The concentrated diesel sell-off in the first 20 days indicates the European refined oil market is already burned through. Coupled with Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco, large-scale military operations in Yemen, and unresolved Strait of Hormuz risks, Brent at $103 cannot be contained; Bank of America has raised its second-half forecast from 83 to 95.
High oil prices → sticky inflation → Federal Reserve reluctant to cut rates → high real interest rates → longest duration assets (BTC/ETH) get valuation hits first. Today's bullish candle is essentially a short squeeze (24h short positions exploded by 113 million, hedge funds closed 5300 BTC short positions), not a fundamental buy.
$ETH Additional bearish factor: funds are moving from ETH to BTC — BTC spot ETF net inflow of 83 million, $ETH spot ETF net outflow of 114 million; institutions are executing "sell ETH buy BTC" relative trades. $ETH current price 2700, with 2532 below as a dense liquidation zone for longs; once broken, it triggers a chain of forced liquidations. Ethereum exit queue surges 392%? Don't rush to call it a dump
On-chain data shows about 822,800 ETH are queued for exit, expected to take 14 days and 7 hours; meanwhile, about 1,491,700 ETH are queued to enter staking. Both ends are congested, which looks more like funds moving on-chain rather than a collective run.
Many people see the word "exit" and immediately think of a dump, but exiting, receiving, and selling are three separate things: validators first exit the active set, then wait for the network to process withdrawals, and finally, whether the coins reach exchanges is another matter.
What really matters are two things: whether the exit queue will continue to lengthen, and whether the price can hold once these coins arrive. Big numbers can be intimidating, but price tells the real story. When you see the queue lengthening, do you first think of a dump, or do you calculate when it will actually flow into the market?
$ETHRocket charts look thrilling, but Meme coin money comes fast and goes even faster! Your 20x long position has a floating profit of 205.81%, opening at 0.070722 and marking at 0.077971, indeed catching a good moment. $ETH
The real background is: the core driver of $MUBARAK's recent surge is sentiment and leverage, not fundamentals. On September 22-23, it doubled in two consecutive days, essentially a short squeeze after shorts were liquidated. At that time, market FOMO sentiment heated up, contract open interest soared, and many shorts were forced to cover. But here’s the problem — this coin has no real use case, a total supply of 1 billion fully circulated, no unlocking, no buybacks, no fee capture; after the rise, it’s still just that BEP-20 token. $BTC
20x leverage means a 5% adverse move can trigger liquidation. On September 24, it dropped over 40% in one day, the lesson is right in front of us. The current best strategy: take profits in batches for at least half, move the stop loss of the remaining position above the cost price; better to earn less than to give back both profits and principal to the market. #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 The best part of this trade isn't the doubling, but the certainty at the moment of entry. $WLD perpetual, 50x short, opened at 0.5826, marked at 0.5709, +100.41%.
That wall above 0.5826 is too obvious; the price tried to break through three times, with volume weakening each time.
After shorting in, it hasn't really looked back, now at 0.5709. But the smoother the trade, the more cautious you need to be—arrogance at high leverage is costlier than mistakes.
I'll be watching closely around 0.5709; if it breaks, expect lower, if it doesn't hold, I'll take profits first. Staying alive is the most important. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 S&P has also started scoring on-chain lending vaults.
Simply put, it's about tagging these lending vaults with risk labels, assessing from six dimensions whether you might lose money.
But note, S&P itself said this is not a credit rating.
This is where my anger lies.
On-chain lending vault deposits were 1.5 billion last September, and 10 billion this September.
Nearly a 7-fold increase in one year.
When the money was pouring in, no one cared about the risk; now S&P is slowly rolling out a framework.
In the short term, this news basically has no impact on the market.
It's neither bullish nor bearish, just a retroactive measure.
What’s really worth watching are the first batch of assessment results.
Which vaults get low scores—that’s the real signal that funds will run.
For now? Just pretend you didn’t see it.
Wait until the list comes out before saying anything.
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 $HYPE $AAVE
Aave’s fundamental strength is tied to actual borrowing demand. Lending protocols can look impressive during speculative periods, but sustainable growth requires borrowers, lenders, collateral, and effective risk management to remain balanced. As DeFi becomes more sophisticated, Aave’s ability to expand across markets while controlling smart-contract and credit-related risks may matter more than short-term token momentum.Let me share something from the bottom of my heart: my Dogecoin account, in my mind, is no longer called an investment account. I call it the "Dog Head Account," reserved for my future partner.
My future partner should be 10 years old this year. I've calculated that there are fourteen years until I get married at 24. What does fourteen years mean? It's the same length of time Dogecoin has been alive from 2013 until today, still going strong.
Fourteen years is enough time for X's payment system to grow into infrastructure, enough time for the application layer to develop things we can't even imagine now, enough time for Dogecoin to transform from "that funny coin" into "the global standard for transfers."
I don't expect it to increase by a certain amount each year; I only expect one thing: to keep living and building continuously for fourteen years. Something that can survive and grow for fourteen years will let compound interest handle the rest for me. The underlying asset dropped 13%, but the account value more than doubled; high leverage acts like a mirror reflecting directly. $CT perpetual, 20x short, entry at 0.5009, mark at 0.4368, +255.93%.
At entry, there was clear selling pressure above 0.5009, with decreasing volume confirming bearish dominance. Now it has fallen to 0.4368; holding the position is harder than opening it—opening is like pulling the trigger, holding is like aiming the gun without moving.
Currently, the key level is contested; as long as the structure remains intact, hold on, and if volume shrinks and stabilizes, exit in batches. Risk control comes first. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 The G7 is preparing to release up to 100 million barrels from reserves, so the market naturally expects some relief in supply pressure. But on October 4th, another important piece of news arrived: the OPEC+ seven-country group decided to maintain its production policy unchanged in November.
Looking at these two pieces of news together is more interesting than focusing solely on the "release of reserves." Consumer countries are tapping into inventories, while oil-producing countries have not simultaneously announced further production increases. The former can fill a supply gap temporarily, while the latter affects ongoing supply; their impacts are different.
I am reluctant to conclude that oil price risks have been resolved solely based on reserve releases. The speed at which inventory enters the market, whether transportation can recover, and what kind of oil refineries receive can all affect the actual outcome. There are many steps between policy commitments and gas station prices.
Of course, reserves are not useless. They can buy time for supply chain adjustments and reduce short-term panic buying pressure. The question is whether the real supply obstacles have been addressed during the time gained.
What annoys me most about this market cycle is that whenever a diplomatic or reserve-related news breaks, someone immediately declares the end of the rally or the start of a new surge.
Right now, I prefer to base my judgment on deliveries: how much crude oil actually enters the market and to what extent shipping has recovered. As long as these remain uncertain, the risk premium is unlikely to disappear completely based on a single statement.
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Ethereum is preparing for the Glamsterdam test.
According to the Ethereum Foundation announcement on September 28, the update is scheduled on the Sepolia testnet for October 6, 16:53 MSK. It changes block assembly and fee calculation. The mainnet launch date is not yet determined.
For ETH analysis after the test, network stability, client errors, and the new developer schedule are important. Changes are not yet active on the mainnet; fee reductions and price increases are not confirmed in advance.
$ETH #ETHTests2500 Which four types of counter-evidence should long-term ETH bulls accept?
Long-term optimism for $ETH should not become a belief that can explain any outcome. My judgment accepts at least four types of counter-evidence: verification and staking continue to concentrate in a few entities; L2 experiences large-scale growth but no longer requires Ethereum settlement in the long term; core applications cannot control contract and custody risks; protocol scaling causes ordinary hardware to gradually lose independent verification capability. Any long-term deterioration in any of these should lead to lowered expectations.
Conversely, short-term price drops, single-day low Gas fees, or a single upgrade delay are not enough on their own to overturn the long-term logic. They need to be placed within a longer chain of evidence: whether users are leaving, development is stagnating, security budgets are unbalanced, or alternative settlement layers provide stronger neutrality. Separating noise from structural changes is necessary to avoid blind faith during price rises and total denial during declines.
What holders need most is not to be always right, but a framework that can be corrected by facts. I continue to be optimistic about Ethereum because it is still scaling, hardening L1, and improving account experience while retaining public verification. If these goals become mere slogans and data moves in the opposite direction, adjusting one's stance is not betrayal but responsible risk management.Today is the big test for BTC and ETH, and tomorrow it's ZEC's turn.
ETH's triangle is closing tonight, with the upper and lower lines meeting, coinciding exactly with the US stock market opening.
The 2780 level, which was resisted three times last week, and the critical support at 2626 below, will be decided tonight. BTC performed well today, bouncing back to 85744, reclaiming the 85000 dividing line. With BTC holding firm, ETH will have confidence tonight.
Now about tomorrow. ZEC's NU7 testnet launches tomorrow. I've been tracking this line for over a month, and now it's the most uncertain time. The ETF has been withdrawn for three consecutive days, with the price dropping from 1695 back to 1321, money is moving. But the upgrade date is clearly set in black and white; the story isn't over yet.
So for today and tomorrow, I'll be watching three signals, and you can follow along too.
First, which direction ETH's triangle will open tonight; only holding above 2780 counts, just touching it doesn't. Second, whether ZEC can hold 1300; this week's low is 1310, and if broken, the next support is 1270. Third, whether the testnet tomorrow will have real substance; an upgrade isn't just about an announcement, it needs to deliver.
You know my own status—I was just schooled by the meat grinder. At this position, I don't bet on direction, only follow standards, no position size. Just score the signals at the close.
Market makers always pick their days carefully; the triangle's tip hits the US market open, the upgrade hits the next day, the drama is all set.
What do you think, which way will ETH's triangle tip open tonight?
#ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 $ZEC $BTC $ETH The same script, but the market no longer buys it
Last time, during the event,
$TRUMP
rose from about $9 to 14.7 within hours, briefly surpassing 15, up about 60%, then dropped back to around 12 the next day.
This time it's different: the quota shrank from 220 to 185, VIP expanded from the top 25 to the top 29, and 3 undisclosed legendary figures were added; the top 4 receive an 18K gold watch, others get gift packages, but the official website clearly states no private meetings with the president and no gift acceptance. Rankings are calculated based on weighted holdings from 9/30 to 11/12, not based on the balance of a single day.
The price only surged from about 2.05 to 2.23–2.25, up about 10%, then dropped back within a day, currently still around 2 dollars.
The same dinner narrative, last time it went from 9 to 15, this time only from 2 to 2.2.
The story is still the same, but the market is no longer willing to pay a high price.$ZEC weekend market was more disgusting than eating fly droppings, this demon coin gave me a harsh lesson: never underestimate an oversold rebound. 50x high position short cost 830, now the price has directly surged to around 1330, two positions floating loss nearly 2000U, return rate negative over three thousand. Originally thought it would continue to fall after sideways consolidation, but the bulls directly reversed the trend and lifted, now cutting losses with huge losses, holding positions fearing further breakthrough of 1346 resistance, now caught in a dilemma. High leverage holding positions is like putting shackles on yourself, proper position management is the only way to make money. $SUI perpetual, 50x long, opened at 1.1791, now at 1.2165, +158.59%.
At 1.1791, the bottom structure was still decent, the pullback didn't break the previous low, and volume was stable, so I went long. Now the floating profit is over 150%, but with 50x leverage, I really can't be careless; even a slight retracement could wipe out the profit.
Around 1.2165, I'll see if volume can continue to push up; if it doesn't hold, I'll reduce my position first. High leverage is only for following the trend, not for fighting the market. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 When most people are panicking over the market, I am targeting $ALGO.
Recently, the Layer1 sector has warmed up, and ALGO's underlying ecosystem is making substantial progress.
Opened a long position at 0.12845 with 50x leverage, firmly holding the bottom chips.
Current mark price is 0.132, with an unrealized profit of 138.18%. Facing short-term resistance at previous highs, beware of a pullback after a surge. $ZEC $AKE #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 ETH Today's Thoughts and Practical Suggestions
Following yesterday's ETH idea: currently operating within a range. The range is between 2626 and 2740.
After the Nasdaq futures opened at 6 AM, ETH quickly surged to 2738 and then started to continuously decline, especially in the past 10 days, every morning at 9:30 during the active Asian session, it has been continuously falling.
Thoughts: After ETH reached 2738, which is the upper boundary of the range, without other macro positive factors, it is highly unlikely to break through. Therefore, decisively taking profits or holding a light position is the best strategy.
Currently, it is in a fluctuating downward process from the upper boundary to the lower boundary of the range. For those who only want to go long, bottom fishing is unnecessary.
Practical suggestions:
Continue to wait for ETH to drop below 2670, then buy BTC and ETH, or strong altcoins are also okay.
The idea is very clear: operating within a range, no one-sided market, so wait for a suitable risk-reward entry point, otherwise it’s all in vain!!$1000000BOB
0.0173 has already touched the 4-day new high range, short-term chasing cost is not cheap. But the 27.5x average volume is not fabricated; it is real cash transaction. This scale itself is a strong confirmation, not just hype.
Bullish entry: 0.017250 – 0.017302; Stop loss: 0.013867; First target: 0.022389; Second target: 0.025798; Third target: 0.030911
The pullback must not break the 0.0139-0.0142 moving average band; if broken, exit. 0.0150 is the first defense level; if it falls below, watch 0.0142, then 0.0139. Stop loss at 0.013867 is set here, the logic is very solid.$BTC: In a phase of volatile bottoming, sector rotation is scattered, making it difficult for a sustained main theme to emerge.
$ARB: L2 ecosystem TVL steadily rises, fundamentals improve, but the token price may not immediately reflect this.
$OP: The superchain ecosystem continues to expand, the market is about to explode, but it requires waiting for sector capital resonance.
On-chain data is a long-term benchmark; for short-term trading, capital sentiment takes higher priority.
#OKXNOW：The future is here, major content is being unveiled
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 Đang có chuyện thú vị xảy ra với nguồn cung $XRP Khoảng 1,6B XRP đã rời khỏi các sàn trong chỉ hai tuần. Số dư trên sàn hiện đã giảm từ khoảng 12,9B xuống 11B kể từ tháng 4. Trong khi đó, các ETF XRP giao ngay đang nắm giữ khoảng 1,16B token. Điều đó cho thấy một lượng cung lớn đang rời khỏi những nơi có thể bán ngay. Giá thường thu hút nhiều sự chú ý nhất. Tôi quan tâm hơn đến việc lượng cung thanh khoản đang âm thầm biến mất bao nhiêu.$XRP is around $1.5062, down 0.95%, with $35.17M displayed volume. I’m watching $1.50 as the key psychological level. If price dips below $1.50, quickly reclaims $1.51 and volume improves, I’d consider a long. Entry: $1.50–1.515. SL: $1.475. TP1: $1.54, TP2: $1.57, TP3: $1.61, TP4: $1.66. R:R can reach roughly 1:5+. If $1.475 breaks and price accepts below it, I’m out. I’m not treating $1.50 as guaranteed support. The reaction after the sweep matters more than the level itself.$ZRO perpetual, 20x short, opened at 2.0338, mark price 1.9194, floating profit +112.49%, position held.
At entry, there was clear selling pressure above 2.0338, price couldn't break through, volume didn't follow, momentum was weak so I shorted. Now it dropped to 1.9194, floating profit doubled, but 20x leverage has very narrow tolerance, good numbers don't mean you can relax.
Around 1.9194 is a key level for now, there are signs of support ahead, bulls and bears are contesting. My approach: if volume breaks through, keep holding; if volume shrinks with a rebound or repeated wicks, protect profits first. High leverage can't be held carelessly, only realized gains count. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $LAB Doing this again, continue to short it. The overall trend is still bearish. Trapping old positions. Too many manipulative whales controlling the market. Need to increase margin to avoid sudden spikes. Whales often play like this and get scared when manipulated.
Key resistance level: $0.0550 Key support level: $0.0480
Long-short ratio: Retail investors extremely bullish
Binance retail long-short ratio 3.995, OKX retail long-short ratio as high as 8.01
(Extremely bullish, retail investors are crazily catching falling knives).
Whale side: Number of whales long-short ratio 4.99, but whale position long-short ratio only 1.8801.
Capital flow: Intense short-term game, main forces still retreating in the long term
Fundamentals: ZachXBT accuses insiders of controlling over 95% of circulating supply, unlocking 1.87 million tokens daily, continuous selling pressure.
$BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 This week is less about a single data print than the policy narrative linking activity, prices, and labor. A softer hike expectation can be fragile if services resilience revives inflation concerns. The September minutes may matter most for how officials weighed that trade-off when they raised rates.
#FedSeptemberMinutes Whales have 1.5 times more short positions pressing down, yet BTC holds above ma7, so I'm bullish on this wave
$BTC saw a risk-off buying surge this morning with a 15-minute straight rally, reaching a high of 86622.2; afterward, the price retraced from 86751.23 down to 85570.2. Whales on Hyperliquid have BTC short positions 1.5 times larger than longs, but the price hasn't broken down — at this level, I'm directly bDogecoin, I love you, Dogecoin rise up!
Do you know what happened to Dogecoin today?
The DogeOS testnet has officially opened to developers worldwide. This is not just empty talk; this is the first time in Dogecoin's history that someone is truly building a DeFi application layer for it.
Let me tell you another detail about the market.
On DOGE's daily chart, the MACD fast and slow lines have been stuck near the zero line for three full days, and today they started to diverge upwards.
You might think this is just a technical indicator, nothing special.
But if you look back at history, when was the last time this pattern appeared? It was on the eve of the doubling rally that started from 0.067.
Now the price is 0.095, hovering above 0.09 for almost a week.
The bears can't push it down; the long-short ratio is 48% to 52%, bears have the advantage but the price doesn't fall. What does this mean?
It means someone is aggressively accumulating below, taking all the chips the bears are trying to dump.
Water can carry a boat, but it can also capsize it; chips can crush the bears or support the bulls.
When everyone thinks Dogecoin is hopeless, that's exactly when it's most dangerous for the bears.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 The data from STONK this time is more worth looking at than simply "how many tokens were burned again."
On October 5th, Solana-based token issuance platform StonkFun announced that the total rewards distributed to token holders have exceeded $90 million.
At the same time, on October 4th, the platform's revenue was about $590,000, of which $353,600 was used for buybacks, and 1.79 million STONK tokens were burned.
In other words, the platform has now established a relatively clear value return path:
Platform revenue → part of the funds used to buy back STONK → token burn → reduced circulation → rewards for holders.
What really matters is not a one-time burn, but whether this mechanism can be sustained.
If platform revenue continues to grow, and the buyback amount and burn quantity increase in sync, the supply-demand structure of STONK will continuously improve, making it easier for the market to form long-term expectations.
But if platform revenue declines and the buyback scale decreases accordingly, then the "buyback + burn" support for the price will also weaken.
Therefore, projects like this should not only be judged by burn numbers; the core is the platform's real revenue.
My judgment is that STONK is now more like validating a "revenue-driven token value" model.
Next, focus on three data points: daily platform revenue, buyback amount, and cumulative burn volume.
Revenue growth + sustained buybacks + reduced circulation — only then does this logic truly hold; if there is only burn news without real revenue support, beware of market hype expectations. Followed the whale to build a position!
Saw the whale buying back at 2695, I couldn't resist.
A week ago, a whale sold ETH at 2709. Today, he bought back at 2695, and the amount increased by 2,184 coins.
4 hours ago, he withdrew 3,283.56 ETH from OKX, worth 8.85 million USD. Last time he deposited 1,099 coins, this time he withdrew three times that amount.
Selling high and buying low, the coins increased. This move makes me envious.
I watched his address for a long time and finally couldn't resist, so I took a position near 2695. I know this small amount is just a fraction of his transaction fees, but I just want to try following the smart money once to see if it works.
His cost is 2695, mine is about the same. But he has tens of millions in margin backing him, I only have a few dozen USD. If it drops, he can hold; if I drop, I can only cut losses. He makes millions, I make a few bucks.
They come to crypto to withdraw, I come in to cover fees.
But this time I want to try. If I follow correctly, at least it proves my judgment is okay. If I follow wrong, it's just a few dozen USD, no big loss.
The above is my personal operation record and does not constitute any trading advice. Small position trial and error, don't follow me.
$BTC $ETH $BTC $ETH $SOL Monday
Employment is weak. The rebound has returned. This is not a breakout.
$BTC around $85.4K–$86.4K
Surpassed $87K after the employment report but disappeared by the weekend.
$85.2K is back in view. Weekly high is still $87.4K. Failure points are $82.8K, next is $80K.
$ETH around $2,705–$2,728
Following along. The floor is $2.60K. The door is still $2.77K.
$SOL around $121
Maintained $117 throughout the week. Local high is $125. $123 comes first.
September employment: +29,000. Rate hike expectations have retreated. The dollar has softened.
Crude oil is still above $100. Interest rates remain heavy. That is the ceiling.
If Monday’s closing price exceeds $87.4K / $2.77K / $125, it will be confirmed.
The wick to $87K has already appeared. It did not remain.凌晨盯盘的时候，SOL那根线突然拉到121，我手里的杯子差点没拿稳。 这波拉升你追了吗，还是跟我一样在等回踩确认？ 先说感受。前几天115到117那个区间一直没被砸穿，我当时就觉得反弹结构在慢慢成形，今天算是给了个交代。但真正让我在意的不是价格本身，而是衍生品那边的动静。这轮从下跌里爬出来的修复行情，现在明显进入了大区间震荡的节奏，问题是，合约市场的持仓和资金费率有没有跟上这波情绪。 我自己的观察是，这种反弹初期，永续合约的未平仓量往往不会立刻暴增，因为大部分人还在怀疑。如果SOL在121附近开始出现量价背离，同时资金费率还是偏中性甚至微负，那反而说明空头没有大规模撤退，后面一旦突破，挤压行情的燃料是存在的。这是偏多的那条路径。 但脆弱点也很清楚。BTC同步修复到85300附近，刚好卡在这轮下跌的中间位置，也是前期的震荡顶。这个位置很微妙，因为它是空头愿意重新进场的地方。如果这里出现明显的卖压，合约市场可能会先走一波多杀多，把追高的人洗出去，再决定方向。换句话说，85300附近如果开空，逻辑上是在博弈震荡延续，往下看83000一带的调整空间。 山寨这边会更敏感。SOL如果只是独立拉，而BTC surged to $86K, but leverage faded faster than expected
Bitcoin has recently surged from over $83,000 to over $86,000. On the surface, the script looks standard: September's nonfarm payroll data was significantly worse than expected, market expectations for an October rate hike dropped sharply from 64% to 22%, capital flowed back into risk assets, and BTC followed the rise. But what’s truly noteworthy isn’t the price, but the speed at which leverage accumulated behind this rally.$SAND I don't understand, why is there no pullback at all, I'm going crazy $PONS, 20x short, entered at 0.4193, now at 0.3806, floating profit 184%.
The logic behind this trade isn't complicated. At 0.4193, there was clearly a resistance wall above; several attempts failed to break through, and volume was shrinking, so I shorted. Now it has dropped to 0.3806, the profit is decent, but with 20x leverage, you know, good numbers don't mean safety.
Currently, just watching the 0.3806 level; if it holds, keep holding, if not, exit. Don't be greedy, only realized profits count. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 🔥 $ETH Smart Money is heavily long, but something just changed
Longs hold $1.42B vs only $428M in shorts, sitting on more than +$60M profit. Shorts are down almost -$11M.
But fresh 30m flow tells a different story: $19.47M selling vs $14.15M buying.
👀 Longs are winning big, but sellers are suddenly stepping in. Profit-taking may be starting.Brothers, right at the market open on Monday, hit me with intensity!
$BTC is back near 86500, $ETH is now at 2630, and $ZEC has also pulled up to 1339. On the first day of the new week, all three coins are rising together—is this a bullish start?
That’s not so friendly for us bears, haha.
But don’t get too excited yet. Although prices are rising, the market is still the same—it hasn’t really broken out of the consolidation zone.
BTC continues to focus on the big range between 84000 and 87000. Below, watch 83800 first; if it really breaks 83500, I’ll cut losses and admit I was wrong.
ETH is also quite tricky, testing 2700 repeatedly. The resistance between 2775 and 2800 is still strong, with sell orders piled up; on the downside, 2650 has held several times in a row.
Yesterday, ZEC really made things clear for me—the more I tried to recover losses with short-term trades, the more I ended up hitting stop losses crazily.
Now I’m less inclined to trade frequently. ZEC’s low is around 1280, and often holding a bit might be much more comfortable than chasing every rise and fall.
The new week has just started, and neither bulls nor bears have gained an advantage yet.
Is this a bullish start, or a bull trap with a rise followed by a fall?
Monday’s a turning point, keep watching!
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 $DOGE is near $0.09536, down 0.58%, with $38.98M displayed volume. I’m watching $0.0945–0.095 as the nearby liquidity zone. If price sweeps below it, reclaims $0.096 and volume expands, I’d consider a long. Entry: $0.095–0.096. SL: $0.0928. TP1: $0.098, TP2: $0.100, TP3: $0.103, TP4: $0.107. R:R can reach roughly 1:5+. If $0.0928 breaks, the setup is invalid. I’m not trying to predict the bottom here. I want the sweep and reclaim to confirm buyers are absorbing the selling before entering.Coin Metrics is a data provider that recalculated Ethereum's historical ledger.
Why did they do this?
Because they later identified more wallets belonging to exchanges and had to add these wallets back from the very first block to reconcile the old accounts.
Whenever a new batch of wallets is identified, they have to go back and complete the history; otherwise, the previous records are incorrect.
This announcement was released on October 1st, with the event report dated September 28th.
Based on my understanding, I turned it into a story.
Let me tell you about a company that loves to tinker with backtesting.
They dug through on-chain data and discovered a pattern:
When the coins in exchanges decrease because people withdraw them, the price often rises after a while.
Doesn't this overturn your previous understanding?
They coded this pattern into a program,
ran data going back several years, and the curve looked unbelievably good.
It kept going up with very small drawdowns.
They were ecstatic.
Then they discovered something that made them unable to laugh.
The historical data they used was provided by the data vendor "today."
And within that data, some wallets were only identified in recent years as belonging to exchanges.
In other words, at the moment of the actual transactions back then,
no one knew those wallets belonged to exchanges.
Their program was like having a divine eye.
It "knew in advance" which wallets were exchanges,
and then used this knowledge, which didn’t exist at the time,
to "predict" the past.
Of course, it won. # Latest Updates
- September nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, far below the expected 90,000; July was revised down to -10,000, August revised down to 133,000, with a combined two-month revision down of 60,000; the private sector still added 46,000 jobs, while the government sector dragged down by 17,000.
- September ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.5, below the expected 55; Markit's final value was sharply revised down from 57.0 to 55.9; Q2 GDP final value was revised up to 2.2%, with consumer spending at 3.8%.
- August PCE year-on-year was 3.4%, below the expected 3.7%; core PCE was 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, mainly due to BEA's change in statistical methodology: the portfolio management subcategory (weight 1.9%) now uses employment data extrapolation, not a true signal of inflation easing.
- Federal Reserve's Jefferson and Williams signaled no rush to raise rates; October rate hike expectations dropped to 20%; Dallas Fed's Logan still advocates at least a 50bp hike. The CPI on October 14 and PPI on October 15 are the most important data windows before the policy meeting.
- The Yemeni government, supported by Saudi Arabia, has restarted a large-scale offensive against the Houthi forces; the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities, raising Red Sea shipping risks; Brent crude remains at $102.61; G7 released 100 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to address Middle East supply disruptions.
- After rate hike expectations declined, crypto rebounded: BTC at 86,400, ETH at 2,726; on October 1, BTC ETF net inflow was $103 million; Anthropic plans to start IPO marketing in mid-November, with a potential valuation of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion; Broadcom leads $60 billion debt financing to support AI chips and data centers.
# Trading Analysis
- Conclusion remains unchanged: this round of rally is a marginal adjustment of rate hike expectations, not a fundamental turning point.
- Weakness in ISM and nonfarm payrolls reduced October rate hike probability to 20%, 2-year US Treasury yields declined, and US stocks broadly rose. However, nonfarm payrolls were mainly dragged down by the government sector; the private sector still added 46,000 jobs; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% due to increased participation; PCE below expectations was caused by the change in statistical methodology. GDP was revised up to 2.2%, consumer spending at 3.8%, fundamentals remain strong; October 14 CPI is a key verification window.
- Anthropic plans to start IPO marketing in November, with a potential valuation of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion; Broadcom leads $60 billion financing, confidence has somewhat recovered; but the core contradiction has shifted to ROI validation, and a period of divergence and expected volatility is anticipated.ETH liquidation pressure: Watch $2,559.16 below and $2,798.02 above
Data: ETH current price is about $2,729.78. If the price drops about 6.25% to around $2,559.16,
some high-leverage long positions may face concentrated liquidation; if the price rises about 2.5% to around $2,798.02,
some high-leverage short positions may face concentrated liquidatioStill couldn't hold on, last night the $ETH short position was liquidated!
Watching the position instantly go to zero, I actually felt a bit of calm like a boot dropping. Reviewing the situation, the overall trend is indeed bearish: lack of new narratives, continuous capital outflow, plus the security risks caused by the attack on Aave's third-party tool yesterday, resulting in heavy selling pressure.
Watching the direction is useless; survival is the key. Having paid such an expensive tuition, quitting the game now is impossible. Adjusting my mindset, continuing to work hard today! Strictly managing stop losses and position sizes to recover the lost profits.
See you all at the peak! Wishing everyone steady profits! #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元