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Bitcoin has never closed below the Realized Price on the daily chart during this bear market cycle. The proportion of profitable coins once dropped to levels comparable to 2022, but the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has remained positive throughout.
The price is currently positioned just above the long-term holder supply zone between $84,000 and $85,000. The next major on-chain resistance is the mean MVRV price at approximately $96,700. Options positions have surged sharply within a day: market makers' hedging may accelerate volatility between the current price and $92,000, then slow down near $95,000. The scale of profit-taking remains only a small fraction of the 2024 to 2025 peak, despite nearly all short-term holders having broken even. ETF buying has warmed up, spot trading volume has more than doubled since the August low, and this time the price increase and volume expansion are synchronized across multiple exchanges. Altcoins are broadly rising, but traders have hardly added new leverage #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $CORE rebounded by more than ten points yesterday, and many hardcore fans were so excited they were dancing with joy. But in just one day, the market reality brutally slapped them in the face, and the previously lively voices instantly fell silent.
The most need to be wary are some hype promoters who encourage newbies to go all-in and lower their average holding cost. They loudly proclaim faith, but in fact, most are deeply trapped at high positions, looking for new retail investors to take over and get them out of trouble, not genuinely optimistic about the project.
Four or five years have passed, and the project team only focuses on short-term profits, with limited vision, repeatedly pumping the price in pulses to lure retail investors to chase highs.
Whenever the market rebounds, someone defends the team, saying they have been working steadily. But if you calm down and think about it, what usable products have actually been delivered? Where are the tangible achievements?
This script has been played countless times. With weak liquidity, a small amount of capital can trigger a big surge, but it's just a pulse market, not a trend reversal. The ecosystem's implementation falls short of expectations, institutional funds are absent, and token selling pressure hangs over the market long-term.
The project team keeps hyping the grand BTC-Fi narrative but never addresses the fundamental weaknesses. They repeatedly pump the price to attract retail investors, and when the market falls back, ordinary people's principal is continuously consumed.
Short-term prices can be leveraged by capital, but time does not lie. No matter how good the narrative is, it cannot replace actual delivered results.
Anyway, I will not add positions to get trapped again.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Virtual currencies are highly volatile and extremely risky. Brothers, yesterday we were still talking about someone seeing 150,000 BTC on Bitfinex, and today there was a big plunge.
$BTC slid from this week's high of 87,300 down to around 83,900, dropping over 2.2% in 24 hours. $ETH fell to 2,418, $DOGE plunged 8%, $UNI dropped over 11%, and $ARB also crashed 11%. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $513 million, with long positions liquidated at $443 million, accounting for 86%. The 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.11%, the highest since 2007. When funding costs rise, risk assets are the first to get hit.
But what really caught my attention today isn’t the market, it’s Cosmos Hub.
Cosmos Hub stopped producing blocks for a full 24 hours and 48 minutes, and finally resumed today. The reason was that the Neutron accelerated governance proposal was exploited by an attacker — this guy spent 20,000 USDC to buy voting rights, completed staking 12 minutes before the proposal ended, and gained management rights over Astroport and Drop related contracts, which exposed assets worth about $9.4 million. Then the attacker’s wallet transferred 1.23 million ATOM. One minute after the restart, THORChain’s treasury returned about 169,000 ATOM, but the attacker’s attempt to transfer 500,000 ATOM to Osmosis failed due to insufficient balance.
Governance attacks are far more insidious than hacker break-ins; you vote on the proposal yourself, so you don’t even know who to hold accountable.BTC this time fell below 84,000, don't just look at the candlestick chart.
The real pressure comes from U.S. Treasury bonds.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed back near 5.1%, September PMI surged to 58.4, and market expectations for further tightening in October are rapidly heating up.
So for short-term short positions, I'm actually not in a hurry to close them.
Still bullish in the medium to long term, but waiting for the right opportunity.
If the rebound is strong: keep observing.
If the rebound is weak: focus on opportunities under pressure.
I will continue to monitor the specific exit points. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $EIGEN FLUSHED, BOUNCED, THEN GOT REJECTED.
Price hit 0.2593, dumped to 0.2287, then faded near 0.2440. Now 0.2336, barely green.
Big volatility tests patience more than strategy. I'd rather wait for structure than chase candles.
Would you trust this bounce, or wait for a higher low? Bitcoin's market cap exceeds approximately $1.6 trillion, yet its ledger is almost "fully transparent" — Citrea directly acquires the privacy wallet Crest, aiming to offer a Zcash-like experience.
According to Citrea's official blog post (9/23) and Odaily cross-report: they acquired the self-custody privacy Bitcoin wallet Crest, which becomes their flagship privacy product, with founder Meliksah Gurtemel joining as product lead; Crest's waitlist has exceeded about 1,000 privacy users. In the coming weeks, they will launch a Bitcoin mobile wallet supporting automatic privacy protection, private BTC transfers, and cross-linking between Bitcoin and Ethereum; plans also include private cross-chain swap/exit paths, allowing private BTC to pay USDC or ETH to EVM addresses confidentially. Acquisition ≠ wallet fully launched, waitlist ≠ daily active users, planned features ≠ mainnet availability. At the time of writing, OKX BTC is about 83242 / ETH about 2635. The above is a summary of public reports and not investment advice. $BTC $ETH AI memory libraries have been poisoned, with trojans hidden in plugins
SlowMist just issued a warning that the MemoryOS and OpenClaw plugins have been injected with malicious code.
Key rule: the package executes immediately upon loading, no manual run required.
Affected versions are PyPI 2.34 and npm versions 0.1.21, 0.1.23, 0.1.25.
A common pitfall for retail investors: those npm versions also leak prompt content.
I guess this isn’t about money, it’s about data.
From a short-term trader’s perspective, this issue has no direct impact on coin prices.
But the AI Agent sector is hot right now, and once a security incident occurs, sentiment will shake first.
I’m still holding my position, haven’t moved because I don’t know which to cut.
The tragedy for those with guaranteed minimum support is that when risk comes, they can only watch helplessly.
#AI模型集体降价，竞争转向成本
#特朗普改称超级智能，AI监管分歧升级 #AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 $ETH $LINK
Let's first look at the calmest one tonight: LINK is currently at 12.14, down nearly 5% in 24 hours, with a daily low of 11.97, almost scraping the bottom.
The most interesting part is the volume. From the peak down to now, the trading volume has shrunk from 930,000 contracts to 240,000 contracts; the lower it falls, the fewer buyers there are—this is not a panic sell-off, but rather buyers withdrawing directly.
Looking at the positions again: a 5% shrink in 24 hours, the long-short account ratio is 1.51, with 60% going long. Despite the 5% drop, long positions haven't eased at all, indicating few are cutting losses; most are holding on.
The big players' long-short ratio is 1.85, even more bullish than retail investors. Big players and retail are aligned, and there is no volume surge panic—this kind of structure usually means it’s not the bottom yet; we have to wait for these bulls to give up before it’s clean.
My view: the low of 11.97 is the watershed. If it breaks, there’s more room down, so don’t rush to buy; if it holds above 12.5 with volume, then a rebound can be considered.
In short, now is not the bottom-fishing point, but an observation point. Those holding positions should watch closely at 12; those without positions should wait a bit longer. Are you holding or staying out?
$LINK BTC这波回调，本来大家就慌：中美没落地、霍尔木兹不开、多单刚被爆3.52亿、Meme跌9%。结果链上又冒出一只“反向巨鲸”——在下跌里硬砸、做空/减仓搞出4160万美元头寸/成交，现在市场都在盯它的爆仓线：BTC只要涨回 84100 美元，它就爆。 说人话： 这哥们儿押 BTC 继续跌，下了重注。价格越往下，他越爽；可一旦 BTC 从低位弹回 8.41 万，平台就会强制平仓，几千万人家的筹码被人“反手吃掉”。 为什么这种单子最刺激？ • 回调里杀跌的人，通常是高杠杆空单或借币砸盘再等低位接 • 8.41 万这个价，说明他开空/做空的建仓区大概就在 8.4 万上方 • 现在 BTC 在 8.33 万晃，离爆仓线就 800 刀，一根阳线就能送走他 • 一旦触发爆仓 → 空头被迫买回 → 价格再拉 → 多头反杀，叫“空杀空” 结合前面那堆事看，画面就清楚了： 1. 中东+宏观利空 → BTC 跌 2. 多单爆 3.52 亿 → 多头血流成河 3. 某巨鲸顺势杀跌 4160 万 → 空头发疯 4. 但现在 8.41 万爆仓线像根鱼刺：BTC 若反抽，空头比多头还惨 散户记住一句： 回调里最怕Yesterday I came across a giant whale address, and I thought I must have seen it wrong.
9.916 dropped to 8.78, the 15-minute chart of UNI looked completely messed up,
EMA all pressing down overhead, the market clearly looks like it’s going to fall further.
The group chat was full of wails, some cutting losses, some cursing.
If I posted a long position at this time, the comment section would probably tear me apart.
But the on-chain data made it impossible for me to pretend I didn’t see it.
One address swept up $10.13 million worth of UNI, LTC, and BNB against the trend in the past hour.
Retail investors are cutting losses, whales are buying, and buying so urgently and aggressively.
This market suddenly became interesting—what kind of confidence makes big players dare to jump in halfway through a decline?
I admit, I hesitated when I saw this data.
Because after being in crypto for a long time, my first reaction is always, "Is this fake data? Is it deliberately released to trick retail investors into catching the falling knife?"
But think calmly, at such a critical point of a crash, who would use $10 million to put on a show?
My long position is still holding at 9.219, currently slightly underwater, with a stop loss set below 8.78.
I’m not going all in on this move, it’s not a reckless rush.
I’m betting on the old trick where the manipulator uses bad news to hammer the market, forcing retail investors to hand over bloodied chips.
If I’m wrong, I’ll leave without hesitation if it breaks support;
But if I’m right, this is the launch point for the next round of the market.
Don’t hand over your chips in panic.
$BTC
$ETH
$UNI
#日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高 Term Structure Radar
The annualized basis for $BTC at three expiration points is relatively flat: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +5.07% / +4.95% / +4.86% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$415.5. The annualized pricing differences across the three terms are small, and the term premium does not show a clear widening.
The annualized pricing for $ETH at three expiration points is not unidirectional: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +4.16% / +4.00% / +4.51% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$10.82.
The annualized pricing for $SOL at three expiration points is not unidirectional: the near, mid, and far-term annualized basis are +2.24% / +1.12% / +1.29% respectively; the raw spread of the near-term contract relative to the index is +$0.25.
BTC, ETH, SOL: all three expiration points are in contango.
ETH, SOL: the middle expiration point breaks the monotonic arrangement, and the difference between near and far terms is insufficient to summarize the entire curve. Just after that spike liquidation, the market instantly entered a dead fish weaving mode, and the volume directly shrank to nothing.
BTC and ETH are just clinging to the 4-hour lifeline (EMA50), while the 15-minute indicators look terrifyingly oversold, but there isn't even a decent volume reversal structure in sight. Chasing shorts at this position is easy to get bitten back, and blindly bottom-fishing is just catching flying knives. I choose to stay out of the market and snack on sunflower seeds, firmly refusing to give the dog traders any friction loss.
Did anyone tough catch the bottom of that spike just now? Do you think this 4-hour moving average can hold the deep V, or will it fake a sideways trap and then continue breaking down?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $SUI This wave is purely due to good market sentiment, casually throwing some gold coins, and they just happened to hit my head 🤣
While everyone was still watching, I had been eyeing SUI for a long time. Each rally was weaker than the last, with insufficient support and volume lagging behind, heavily signaling a bull trap. Opened a short at 1.0109, bearish. My exact words at the time were: Don't rush, let it run its course.
Markets with no buyers fall the fastest.
During the intraday plunge, the price directly hit 0.9401, with unrealized gains of +351.66%. Those on board must have woken up laughing.
Being out of position is not a sin; recklessly opening positions is the mistake.
Took profits on 80% of the position first, keeping 20% at cost price as protection. If it rebounds, no worries; if it continues to drop, let the profits fly. The risk-reward for chasing shorts at this level is too low. Wait for the next structural setup, opportunities remain, no need to rush ⏳
$ADA $DOGE An internal White House memo pins Anthropic's CEO as a representative of the "AI doomsday theory."
My first reaction wasn't to take sides, but to analyze the opposition.
Who wrote this? A Trump political advisor not holding any position in the White House. Who's named? Dario and his sister Daniela, even depicting their relationship as an "Anthropic node."
This is no longer a policy discussion; it's about finding targets ahead of the midterm elections.
Interestingly, Anthropic itself has been distancing from effective altruism; Daniela says she doesn't identify with the term, Dario says he's not a member, and they both talk about the benefits of AI everywhere.
On one hand, they desperately try to remove the label, but the label only gets tighter.
Should investors panic? The company is preparing for an expected record-breaking IPO, and being politically targeted at this moment adds an unclear layer to the valuation story.
I'm not rushing to conclusions.
Wait until this memo turns into actual action before making a move.
#特朗普改称超级智能，AI监管分歧升级 $HYPE 9.24 Crypto Evening Report｜Friday Approaching
The market collectively pulls back, volatility is about to increase!
Market Overview 📊
The market experienced overall downward fluctuations throughout the day, with mainstream coins falling in sync, and tokenized US stock sectors showing clear divergence. Highly volatile triple-leveraged semiconductor stocks led the declines, while the bearish xSOXS bucked the trend and closed higher. With less than a day left until Friday's options expiration, the battle between bulls and bears intensifies, leading to more spike moves; risk control levels need to be raised in trading.
$BTC Bitcoin
Current Price: 83164.9｜24H -1.42%
After an intraday rally, the price continued to fall, repeatedly contesting the 83000 level.
Hourly indicators are weakening, with strong resistance forming around 86000. Although ETF inflows persist, short-term profit-taking within the market is increasing, weakening buying support.
- Key Support: 82000‑82500, the core defense zone for this bullish phase; a decisive break below will open deeper correction space
- Key Resistance: 84800‑85500, the first strong resistance on the rebound; regaining this zone is necessary to return to a strong trend
$ETH Ethereum
Current Price: 2633.72｜24H -1.86%
Following Bitcoin's adjustment without independent movement. Despite ongoing v4 ecosystem narratives, the market pullback suppresses momentum, and capital remains cautious.
The market is fully correlated with BTC; without Bitcoin stabilizing, ETH struggles to mount an independent rebound.
- Key Support: 2580‑2600, structural support for this rebound
- Key Resistance: 2710‑2740, resistance zone on the rebound
$ZEC Zcash
Current Price: 1466.58｜24H -2.07%
Previous privacy narrative drove a significant rally, accumulating substantial unrealized gains; this round follows the market in profit-taking.
It has retraced considerably from intraday highs; mid-to-long-term fundamentals remain intact, but short-term overbought conditions require thorough rotation and consolidation.
- Key Support: 1400, important psychological and structural support
- Key Resistance: 1560‑1600, reclaiming this level could trigger a secondary rally
$xSNDK SanDisk Tokenized Stock
Current Price: 1768.2｜24H -2.76%
The storage chip sector collectively pulled back, with xSOXL sharply declining dragging the entire sector down.
The semiconductor cycle's major logic remains unchanged; this is short-term profit-taking after continuous gains, not a trend reversal.
- Key Support: 1680, important short-term defense level
- Key Resistance: 1840, regaining this level would restore strength
Additional Sector Observations
Tokenized US stocks show clear divergence:
- xSOXL triple-leveraged semiconductor long dropped -6.30%; inverse xSOXS rose +7.56% against the trend, as capital hedges semiconductor sector pullback risk.
- xMSTR weakened synchronously -2.13%, retreating alongside BTC.
Market Summary & Trading Strategy
1. The market is currently in a correction phase within an uptrend, not a direct bear market. However, with Friday's options expiration approaching, volatility will increase significantly, with more spikes and false breakouts; avoid heavy position speculation.
2. Sector characteristics: previously strong narrative coins and semiconductor sectors are correcting more sharply; mainstream coins show relative resilience.
3. Personal trading: adhere to no bottom-fishing or chasing highs. Continue focusing on dual-coin yield farming, with small spot positions on standby. Keep ample cash reserves, wait for key support confirmation before scaling in. In correction phases, prioritize risk control; survival is more important than one-time huge profits.
⚠️ The above is a personal live trading review and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ 市场现在就一个状态：都在等，谁也不敢先动。 Odaily 快讯显示，盘面已是全线飘绿：BTC一度跌破84000 USDT（现报83355附近），ETH跌破2700后现报2643，SOL、HTX同步下挫。最惨的是Meme板块，领跌近9%。这不是某个币不行，而是风险资产集体撤椅子。 利空不是来一个，是“一摞一起砸” • 中东先掐管子：伊朗称霍尔木兹海峡暂不会重开、不急于谈判。油价与通胀预期下不来，避险情绪直接压制风险资产。 • 宏观继续紧：美联储理事巴尔放话“或需进一步加息确保2%通胀”，美元升至八周高位，美国5年期国债收益率自2007年以来首次飙至5%。美债收益率倒挂+财政压力质疑，流动性预期再受打击。 • 中美会晤悬着：市场都在等中美会晤成果，结果未落地，大资金不敢押方向，先观望减仓。 • 杠杆盘被血洗：过去12小时全网爆仓3.89亿美元，其中多单爆仓3.52亿。多头被集体洗光，盘面没了托底，Meme这类高波动板块直接领跌。 人话版总结 本来大家想等中美握手利好，结果中东先扔鞋，美联储还要加息，美债收益率飙到5%，合约多军被一波带走。资金一看“算了先跑”，于是加密市场继续普跌。 现在最SKHYNIX's spike to 1419 today surged up, but no one dared to follow the wave at 1438.
Yesterday's low was 1328, the high was 1419, and it closed around 1367. Today it opened near 1360, currently around 1322. Volume is still there; after the upward surge, it slid back down.
There is still resistance between 1419 and 1438, and the space above hasn't opened yet. If it breaks below 1322, it’s likely to first see 1262; if that level can't hold either, the short term will look for even lower levels.
In the short term, watch if the current price can hold at 1322. If it can't hold, treat the rise and fall as digestion and don't chase the current price. For those already holding, watch if 1322 can support; if not, reduce positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait for a pullback and reconsider if it can't break through 1419—don't catch a falling knife in midair. $SKHYNIX $BTC surged but failed to hold, and after the pullback, the resistance above became clearer. The market is discussing: will the funds overflowing from BTC shift to altcoins? My judgment: rotation is taking shape but hasn't fully spread yet.
The core reason: BTC had a significant rise earlier, and profit-taking is underway; after mainstream coins' short-term space is limited, funds tend to favor highly volatile small-cap coins, with inscriptions and Meme often being chosen first. They have light market caps, so a push from funds can quickly lift them, and their short-term explosive power usually surpasses that of mainstream coins.
Sentiment remains divided: some are taking profits at BTC highs, while others only want to try altcoins with small positions, overall cautious.
BTC is repeatedly testing highs, with weakening upward momentum, entering a phase of turnover and digestion. ETH is still constrained by BTC, weak, with no independent trend yet. $ZEC shows slight fluctuations with somewhat more elasticity but still follows BTC.
If BTC doesn't experience a deep drop, small-cap themes may continue to receive some liquidity. But the risk is high; rapid rises are followed by quick falls.
Rotation is just a projection, not a certainty. A safer approach is to test with light positions and avoid heavy bets; wait for the market to confirm sustained sector strength before increasing attention.
$BTC $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #BTC87KCryptoCap3T $3T crypto is back, but the fuel behind this rally matters 👀
BTC topped $87K as spot ETFs pulled in ~$999M on Sep 21, a 2026 high. At the same time, shorts made up ~80% of liquidations at several points.
What caught my attention is both real capital and forced buying are pushing prices higher.
With $90K and $100K calls in focus for Sep 25 expiry, ETF flows may decide whether this becomes a durable breakout or a volatility-driven sprint.Bitcoin surges and then falls back, has the market rotation really started?
The market is like a roller coaster ride.
Bitcoin was bullish and strong this morning, hitting 87,000, but then suddenly dropped 4,000 points $BTC
So, has the market rotation really begun?
On one hand, altcoins' trading volume on exchanges jumped from 31% to 51%, it looks like hot money is flowing into altcoins.
But on the other hand, Bitcoin's dominance actually rose above 60%, meaning funds are concentrating back into BTC and ETH.
Ethereum, the leader of altcoins, also dropped less than 200 points, still above 2600, which bulls can accept $ETH
In short, altcoins are lively, but the real big money still thinks Bitcoin is more stable.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ The smart contracts of STONfi and the TON blockchain itself are mathematically protected against hacks, but the most vulnerable element of the system remains the user clicking a link in the messenger. Scammers no longer try to hack the code of STONfi because they hack human attention. The deception mechanics start with a phishing link disguised as an official announcement in comments, a compensation message from support, or an exclusive token giveaway. The user lands on a website that visually cAbout 34% of NVDA's circulating supply has already been stacked into the long pool, which is more dangerous than just calling for a breakout.
Just saw a Dune chart: the long pool accounts for the circulating supply, NVDA about 34%, META about 29%, COIN about 25%. Meanwhile, DJT, PFE, ASML mostly remain below 20%, the difference is obvious at a glance.
Simply put: it's not that no one is buying, but leveraged longs have filled the chips of these few stocks.
My view: when US Treasury yields are still high, this kind of crowding should be watched more than just price ups and downs.
What I do: I won't chase these three for now, will wait for a pullback or position reduction; the invalidation condition is a significant drop in the long pool ratio and the stock price can still hold.
Do you think this is bull market fuel or a sign of liquidation?
$NVDA $META $COIN
#EarningsObserver: Costco Q4 earnings are about to be released #BTC surges then falls back, has market rotation started?$AMD
After an initial surge, it dropped 1.5%. Is this a normal consolidation?
AMD previously surged significantly due to AI market share expectations, but now faces valuation pressure tests amid a 5.10% US Treasury yield.
If the pullback is on low volume and data center orders and gross margin expectations remain unchanged, the movement looks more like digestion after a rise.
If the price breaks below the breakout zone on high volume, analysts will start lowering profit forecasts, indicating the market thinks the prior revaluation was too fast. The key for a strong stock is not that it never pulls back, but whether the fundamentals still hold after the pullback.$NVDA
AI demand hasn't changed, so why did NVDA drop about 1.5%?
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.10% in a single day, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.1%. Higher discount rates directly reduce the present value of future profits, with high-valuation AI stocks being the first to be affected.
If cloud providers continue to increase capital expenditures and NVDA orders, profit growth can absorb some of the valuation pressure.
If yields continue to climb and order expectations do not improve, the market will simultaneously lower profit multiples and growth expectations. It's important to distinguish between declines caused by interest rates and those caused by fundamentals.📉 $BTC — BEARS HAVE TAKEN CONTROL FOR NOW Last night, the setup was already flashing warning signs: 4H trend structure weakened, the 1H MACD rolled over, and volatility was compressing. Today, the confirmation came — $BTC lost the nearby support zone and accelerated lower. ₿ BTC: ~$86.7K → ~$84.1K Ξ ETH: ~$2.78K → ~$2.62K ◎ SOL: ~$118 → ~$112 But chasing shorts here could be dangerous 👀 The 15M and 1H RSI are now deeply stretched, meaning sellers may be running out of immediate momentum. A rel$ONE perpetual 10x short, +557.30% (0.0046059→0.002039).
Although the tenfold leverage seems moderate, for a micro-priced asset it actually reflects more than a fivefold paper volatility, mainly because the asset itself has undergone a deep halving-level drop.
Entering the extremely low 0.002 range, the order book is very thin, and even tiny price movements often hide intense percentage fluctuations, which can easily trigger chain reactions.
No speculation on bottom support, no preset reversal; the position is held with a detached view, letting the mark price play out on its own. Only realizing profits by closing the position changes the account's nature. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $ZEC $ETH $SNDK Just after 1 a.m., I was still refreshing the K-line charts. ZEC has already surged close to 1600, and my short position opened at over 800 is deep in floating losses that I dare not calculate in detail. It's not that I don't want to cut losses, but I'm afraid that if I do, it will really rebound—that would truly corner me.
Recently, it climbed from a few hundred all the way up, and I always felt that privacy coins rising so crazily was unusual. The higher it went, the more I dared to add shorts. Then Grayscale's ETF just launched and attracted nearly 1 billion USD, also announcing a 1-for-3 split, which directly ignited market sentiment. The November NU7 upgrade further shortened block time to 25 seconds, with one narrative after another; shorts seem pinned on a track waiting to be hit.
SNDK is also restless, with AI storage logic repeatedly hyped. Analysts' target price reached 2400 USD, and it rose nearly 7% yesterday. ETH is moving with the broader market, BTC is approaching 87,000 USD again, and the whole market is squeezing shorts.
What I fear most now is not continuing losses, but having lost so much that I dare not make a decision. Cutting losses means fearing missing out, holding on means fearing liquidation. Is there anyone else tormented by ZEC shorts? How are you holding on now? Last night I tossed and turned, unable to sleep, my mind kept fixating on one thing.
That SEC filing was released on September 17.
The CEO was at position 1574, with 15 transactions, selling 33,841 shares, cashing out 53.27 million.
Many people saw this news and their first reaction was "normal sell-off, nothing big."
But I think something's off.
If the owner of a company chooses to convert chips into cash at the peak of the "AI storage revolution" story, that itself is a signal.
What's even more outrageous is that three days later, Rosenblatt issued a research report giving a "buy" rating with a target price of 2400.
When retail investors chased at 1888, the CEO had already pocketed 53.27 million.
Tell me, who understands this company better?
Now the market has dropped to 1770, the moving averages on the 15-minute chart are all pressing down, and the MACD green bars are still expanding.
The storage sector is collectively retreating, with over 10 billion withdrawn in a single day from optical modules and storage tracks.
Plus, interest rates were already raised in September, possibly another hike in October, with the probability of continued hikes this year approaching 89%.
When liquidity tightens, these high-valuation chip stocks are the first to get drained.
I'm not shouting "don’t panic" or "don’t guess the bottom" anymore.
I’ll just say this: my short positions are still open, floating profits over 60%. I’m holding this hand steadier than the CEO.
$BTC
$ETH
$SNDK
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 $HYPE
Among the big coins, the slow decline is the most frustrating, and today HYPE definitely counts.
90.2, down 5.49% in 24 hours, highest 96, lowest 90.08 — now it's almost lying flat at the day's lowest price, can't even bounce up.
Trading volume is still 1.06 billion, indicating people haven't left, just slowly rotating and grinding down. Open interest shrank by 7.8 points, bulls are quietly reducing.
Long-short account ratio is 1.63, 62% are long. Even after such a drop, more than 60% are bulls, meaning there are still quite a few buyers holding on, bulls haven't been cleared out.
My view: sticking near the low with a slow decline and volume still there, this pattern is prone to another push down. If it doesn't hold above the 90.08 low, I won't buy in.
If you really want to get in, wait for a volume surge and a breakout away from the low before entering; rushing in now is likely just lifting floating chips.
Do you have HYPE? Are you holding or waiting for a lower price?
$HYPE My 10x short on $ONE from 0.0010131 once showed an unrealized loss of more than 6,000%. Watching it pump and dump every day had my heart in my throat. Now the price has moved back toward 0.0021, and that unrealized loss has narrowed to around -1,100%. At least, the pressure has eased a little. But honestly, I’m much calmer now than I was a few days ago. After days of relentless selling, it feels like a large part of the downside momentum has already been released. If this position manages to recBTC is under pressure at high levels and quickly falling back. This round of correction is caused by a triple resonance of macroeconomic bearish factors, institutional profit-taking, and leveraged liquidations. It is a healthy high-level shakeout, not a trend reversal.
The core trigger for this decline is stronger-than-expected US economic data combined with hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, a rebound in US Treasury yields, which suppresses global risk asset enthusiasm and rapidly cools the overall sentiment in the crypto market. BTC previously surged continuously, accumulating a large amount of unrealized profits. Incremental buying from spot ETFs has clearly stalled, and institutional funds are taking profits in batches at high levels, causing the market to lose upward momentum.
Long positions with heavy leverage have accumulated at high levels. After the price broke key support, concentrated liquidations were triggered, and forced sell orders amplified the decline, creating a short-term rapid liquidation event. Meanwhile, leading VCs continue to distribute popular altcoins at high levels, further suppressing market risk appetite and dragging ETH and small- to mid-cap coins down in tandem.
Currently, the market is undergoing a typical high-level technical correction; the bull market structure remains intact. BTC dominance is stable, there is no sustained large capital outflow, and ETH/BTC has not strengthened, indicating the market has not started a full altcoin rotation, only a short-term internal divergence shakeout.
Key points to watch next: US Treasury yields, ETF capital flows, and overall network leverage liquidation data. Short-term volatility is amplified; blind bottom-fishing is not recommended. Patiently wait for stabilization signals. Position holders must raise stop-losses to protect unrealized profits. We are currently in a directional choice window, so a prudent wait-and-see approach is advised.
⚠️ This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. Strictly control position sizes and avoid risks from market volatility.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 刚开始交易 Crypto 的时候，我其实很少认真计算手续费。 那时候更关心的是价格： BTC 会不会突破？ ETH 会不会上涨？ 某个热点还能不能继续？ 但交易时间久了以后，我发现一个很现实的问题： 真正影响长期交易结果的，不只是方向判断，还有交易成本。 手续费就是其中最容易被忽略的一项。 一笔交易的手续费看起来不多，累计起来可能完全不同 举一个非常简单的例子。 假设某位交易者每次成交金额为 1,000 USDT，为了方便计算，我们假设实际收取的手续费率为 0.1%。 那么： 1,000 × 0.1% = 1 USDT 也就是说，一次成交的手续费大约是 1 USDT。 如果一个月交易 100 次： 100 × 1 = 100 USDT 如果交易频率增加到 300 次： 300 × 1 = 300 USDT 单独看每一笔，1 USDT 似乎并不起眼。 但放到一个月甚至一年里，数字就开始明显起来。 当然，这只是为了说明问题的假设案例，并不是说所有 OKX 用户实际都按照 0.1% 收费。 实际手续费还要看账户对应的费率等级、Maker/Taker、交易产品以及当时适用的具体规则。OKX 官Tomorrow, September 25, Deribit will see around $14.9B in BTC options expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.76 and the maximum pain point near $78,000. BTC is currently around $84,000, leaving roughly $6,000 between the current price and the max-pain level. Yesterday’s cleanup may have reduced some leverage, but the expiry still creates an important short-term volatility risk. 🎬 “Waterfall” scenario Step 1: A false breakout to attract more longs tonight. Step 2: A sudden sell-off early tomorrow, t$AKE This token is still very interesting. It rises quickly and falls quickly, making it very good for swing trading, but you have to watch the market closely.
Long-short ratio: Big players are firmly shorting (core signal).
Retail investors: Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.1182 (slightly bullish), OKX retail long-short ratio is 0.99 (balanced).
Big players: The number of big players long-short ratio is 1.07, but the big players' position long-short ratio has plummeted to 0.6573.
Big players' funds are firmly shorting or massively hedging.
Liquidation data: Long positions are being wiped out.
24-hour total liquidation is $1,395,700, with long position liquidation at **$898,400**, and short position liquidation at $497,300.
1-hour long position liquidation is $183,500, short position only $4,910;
4-hour long position liquidation is $403,700, short position $29,400.
Price shows no resistance around $0.04, big players' funds are firmly shorting, and contract long-term funds are withdrawing.
There may be an oversold rebound in the short term, but the overall trend continues downward, with $0.038 as the next support level.
Find an opportunity to keep going in and keep shorting.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC still can't go down Many people advised me: "ZEC is a highly controlled coin" Telling me to go long on the rebound, follow the trend Of course, when it was at 800, 700, someone told me to do this, to go long on the rebound Of course, being in the middle of it, I didn't reflect At that time, from 200-something, 300-something rising to over 500, I already felt it was topping out, too high, but then it went to over 800, and I firmly believed it would pull back, so I kept shorting it, at 1400, Wow, Aunt Ai just spotted: the address 58bro.eth (0xc24…FE8d2) has been cycling leveraged long positions on about $18.74 million worth of ETH in the past 24 hours — first withdrawing 3,000 ETH from Binance, then depositing it into Aave to borrow 9 million USDT to continue adding to the position, with total longs rolling up to 7,000 ETH at an average price of about $2,677.59.
Ah, so that's how it is — withdrawing coins and then borrowing to add positions ≠ the bottom is set in stone; rolling up to 7,000 ETH in 24 hours ≠ the trend is confirmed. Familiar addresses rolling positions are just structural clues, not a switch that opens market buy orders, and certainly don’t guarantee you’ll win by following the same moves.
A more prudent interpretation: watch whether this address continues to add leverage or flows back to exchanges, as well as changes in ETH funding rates and positions. To compare volatility, you can check ETHUSDT perpetuals on OKX, set your own risk controls, DYOR, and this does not constitute investment advice.$DOGE 50x short, floating profit +485.46% (0.10217→0.09225).
After the selling pressure above was realized, the downward momentum near 0.092 shows signs of weakness.
Fifty times leverage has very narrow tolerance; floating profits are substantial but easily lost.
No speculation on support, just watching if the mark price can break the previous low again. The position is still open, this is only an objective record without any preset stance. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $SNDK perpetual 75x short, +435.96%.
From 1880.3 to 1771, a hundred-point range has been realized.
Under high leverage, the profit-loss ratio is extremely skewed. Currently, the floating profit is substantial, but a single retracement candle is enough to change the narrative.
1770 becomes a short-term anchor point; if broken, continuation; if stable, reduce positions.
Positions are not closed yet, numbers are just a process, only cashing out changes the account's essence. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $RAVE 7-day rebound up +21.06%, probably will continue to align downward
Long-short ratio: Retail frenzy
Binance retail long-short ratio is as high as 4.3447, OKX retail long-short ratio is 3.27. Retail investors are frantically bottom fishing.
For whales: the number of whales long-short ratio is 5.3052 (many are bullish), but the whale position long-short ratio is only 2.1494.
Price shows no resistance around $0.20, retail long-short ratio 4.34 is extremely crowded.
Previously, ZachXBT confirmed 90% of the chips are controlled, and a wave of short positions was just harvested in April.
Better to be cautious, everyone
Small positions, small leverage, more margin, set stop-loss properly
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $BTC $ETH Is the Federal Reserve going to raise interest rates again? BTC dropped 4000 points overnight, the Nasdaq fell 1.13%, but the real risk is not in the stock market, it's in the bond market! The 10-year US Treasury yield surged 15 basis points in one day, reaching 5.113%, the first time since 2007.
Four things hit at once:
1) PMI explosion: The preliminary composite PMI for September is 58.4, the strongest in over five years, with new orders and employment both strong, good data, and expectations for rate hikes rising.
2) Oil price strike: Iran says sanctions will not be lifted, the Strait of Hormuz won't fully open, Brent crude rises, and inflation expectations rise again.
3) Fed's Barkin turns hawkish: Inflation is still above 2%, policy may need further adjustment.
4) US Treasury auction cools off: No buyers for $70 billion 5-year Treasuries, winning yields are relatively high, primary dealers forced to take on the most since 2024. No one buying US Treasuries is scarier than a stock market drop. As a result, market rate hike bets surged from 55% to 73% in one day, then, with the positive news from the China-US meeting exhausted, the market pulled back.
Is an October rate hike unstoppable? Not necessarily. As long as October CPI is moderate, or the US and Iran quickly reach an agreement, there is still hope, but the time left for the market is limited. #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ 📊 当 BTC 与 ETH 暂时进入震荡区间时，价格表面上可能没有明显方向，但两者之间的相对表现依然会发生变化。 🧠 如果 ETH 在横盘期间持续跑赢 BTC，$BTC/$ETH 比率就会下降；反过来，如果 BTC 在没有出现大幅突破的情况下逐渐占据优势，该比率则可能重新走高。 ⚡ 所以，横盘 ≠ 市场没有变化。 真正值得关注的，可能是 BTC 与 ETH 谁在相对强势。 📉 最新变化来看，9月24日 BTC 回落至约 $84.2K，ETH 约 $2.69K，短线两者同步调整；BTC/ETH 比率也降至约 31.3，说明近期 ETH 的相对表现仍值得关注。 📰 同时，市场正在消化美国经济数据、利率预期以及地缘政治风险。最新报道显示，强劲的美国 PMI 推高了进一步加息预期，并对风险资产形成压力。 🔥 另外，$18B+ 的 BTC/ETH 期权将于9月25日到期，短线波动率可能进一步受到关注。 👀 盘整期间，与其只看价格涨跌，不如同时观察： • BTC/ETH 比率 • ETH 相对 BTC 的强弱 • 成交量与资金流向 • 宏观利率与地缘政治风险 市场真正的变化，有时会先出$BTC BTC surged and then pulled back, has market rotation begun?
After BTC hit a high, it quickly pulled back as leveraged funds accumulated at the top were cashed out. The market is starting to discuss whether sector rotation has officially begun. This pullback is not a trend reversal but more of a profit-taking after continuous gains. A large number of long positions were liquidated in the futures market, amplifying price volatility. Observing the market, during BTC's correction phase, some mid-cap coins show stronger resilience, with funds seemingly shifting from small-cap speculative targets to mainstream public chains and sector coins, but a complete rotation has yet to be confirmed. True rotation requires two core signals: a sustained decline in BTC's dominance and a steady rise in the ETH/BTC ratio. Currently, macro factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations remain uncertain, and fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields can disrupt risk assets at any time, making the external environment unstable. At this stage, it looks more like funds are tentatively adjusting positions rather than fully switching. Going forward, pay close attention to whether BTC's key support can hold. If it stabilizes with high-level oscillation, funds may continue to spread into various sector coins; if support breaks, all crypto assets will face collective pressure again. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $LDO Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety 😌
Before going to bed last night, I looked at LDO; the sell orders kept pressing down wave after wave, and the rebound didn’t even have a decent support. I opened a short at 0.4194 with no other thought, just feeling the resistance above was too heavy to push up.
Better to miss a rebound than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding.
Woke up this morning, 0.3882, +371.95%, it made me nervous, afraid the market would realize and blacklist me. Risk control is done upfront, call it rationality.
Take 80% profit first, move the stop to the cost price for the remaining 20%, if it keeps dropping let the profits run, don’t give back the gains in the last stretch 💰
If you haven’t entered yet, don’t rush, chasing at this position has too low cost-effectiveness, wait for the next shot, I will notify immediately.
$SOL $DOGE $ZEC perpetual 50x short, +467.11%.
Opened at 1617.49, mark price 1466.28.
Short position advantage expands, but with fifty times leverage, unrealized profit can be pulled back at any moment due to sudden spikes.
Do not actively guess the bottom, do not take profit early, let the mark price move on its own.
Purely follow, keep the base position logic, watch support feedback during trading. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $ETH 100x short, unrealized profit +461.24% (2764.47→2636.63).
Since opening the position, the trend has been a one-sided downward probe with weak rebounds.
100x leverage amplifies volatility and severely compresses error tolerance. The position remains unchanged, objectively responding to the market without preset bias.
Will conclude after truly exiting; for now, just a cold record. $BTC $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ 盘中最低已经摸到 $2626，甚至比昨晚的位置还要低。 看来我今天早上的空单止损位置确实卡得比较准 😂 行情有时候就是这样，前一秒还在看反弹，下一秒直接风向切换。 $BTC 比特币也重新回到 $83,000–$84,000 附近。 几个小时前还在 $84,400 上方，现在已经明显回落，$84,500 这个位置还是没能稳住。 从今天的市场变化来看，BTC 一度冲到 $87,000 附近后快速回撤，ETH 也同步走弱。目前 BTC 约 $84K、ETH 约 $2.7K，24小时跌幅大约在 2%–3% 区间。 背后的压力也比较明显： 📉 美债收益率继续走高，市场对进一步加息的预期升温 🌍 美伊局势仍然存在不确定性，风险溢价重新回到市场 💰 不过资金面暂时还没有出现极端恐慌，BTC ETF 近期仍有较强资金流入 所以现在更像是强势上涨后的快速回撤，还是进一步转弱，目前还需要继续观察。 今晚重点看看 $BTC 能不能重新站回 $84,500，以及 $ETH 能不能守住 $2,600 附近。 如果风险情绪继续升温，山寨币可能会比 BTC、ETH 承受更大的波动。 #BTCPullback$UNI dropped directly from $10.9 to around $9 in this wave, which means the good news has been fully priced in and profit-taking has occurred.
It had risen 113% in the past month.
The positive news of the SEC opening compliance channels and CME launching futures had already driven the price up,
After big players completed the final strike, they directly dumped to cash out,
Plus the $UNI supply in exchanges hit a record high, so the selling pressure was already large,
The short-term price collapsed instantly.
What’s next? The key is to closely watch the $9.16 support level:
If it holds and can rise back above $9.46, it can push back up to $10.5;
If it fails to hold and breaks below $8.46, it may further drop to $7.6 or even lower.
But don’t panic too much, the mid-to-long-term logic remains intact: after Robinhood Chain goes live, there will be daily real buybacks and burns, and CME futures are a long-term gateway for institutions to enter. The narrative of tokenized assets is far from over.
There’s still room to rise.$BTC perpetual 100x short, +393.20%.
Opened at 86704.9, currently marked at 83308.1, the market has dropped nearly three thousand points.
After high-level chip turnover, bears still dominate. With 100x leverage, the floating profit of nearly four times is just a number; the key is whether the 83300 level will accelerate.
Unclosed positions are not real profits; no preset stance, continuing to observe with the market depth. $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Core driver of the decline: U.S. Treasury yields surge triggering macro panic
① The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 5.11%, the highest since 2007
On Wednesday (September 23), the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.11%, rising 15 basis points in a single day, marking the highest closing level since 2007. The 30-year yield surged simultaneously, and Japan's 10-year government bond yield also hit a 30-year high.
The main catalyst for the yield surge was unexpectedly strong U.S. September business activity data—S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 58.4, the highest since July 2021, with both services and manufacturing sectors strengthening, new orders surging, and employment expanding. Coupled with hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr, who stated "additional policy adjustments are needed to reduce inflation," market expectations for further rate hikes sharply intensified.
② Weak demand at Treasury auctions increases pressure on long-term rates
On the same day, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $70 billion of 5-year notes, with the winning yield reaching 5.033%, the highest auction yield since 2006, and about 3 basis points higher than the secondary market level before the auction, indicating buyers demanded higher premiums to take on the debt.
③ Oil price rebound combined with rising geopolitical risks
Brent crude oil rose over 4% to nearly $104 per barrel, ending a six-day losing streak. The trigger was a tough speech by the Iranian president at the United Nations General Assembly, sharply criticizing Trump, which dampened market optimism about progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Transmission mechanism: High yields → increased opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets (such as Bitcoin) → higher financing costs for leveraged positions → concentrated long position liquidations → price spiral down. The deepest intraday drop in Bitcoin on Wednesday occurred right after the PMI data release. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
Just saw that the US and Iran have sat down again, but don’t rush to call it détente this time.
The two sides talked for 3 hours in New York; Trump said it was productive, Brent crude briefly fell below 100, touching 98 intraday. But as soon as the talks ended, the Iranian president reiterated that they will not surrender to the US, and oil prices bounced back to around 103. This pattern of falling first then rising shows the market is just trading expectations, not facts.
The core disagreements remain unresolved. Iran wants the maritime blockade lifted and assets unfrozen; the US hasn’t budged. The Strait of Hormuz navigation and ceasefire arrangements are still on the table, and no agreement has been signed. Simply put, this is just putting down guns temporarily and talking a bit; a real ceasefire is still far off.
For BTC, oil prices are the most direct transmission variable right now. If substantive progress is made later, energy risk premiums will continue to fall, easing inflation pressures, reducing the urgency of Fed rate hikes, and allowing risk assets to catch a breather. But if talks collapse or Iran hardens its stance again, oil prices could bounce back at any moment, rate hike expectations will heat up again, and BTC will come under pressure.
Operationally, don’t bet on direction. The US-Iran situation is too volatile; they might be getting along well today and turn hostile tomorrow. Wait for clear progress in negotiations or a trend in oil prices before deciding whether to enter. At this point, watching more and acting less is better than acting recklessly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC