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#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
The US and Iran held an indirect meeting lasting about three hours in New York, mediated by Qatar, discussing topics such as ceasefire, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, maritime blockade, and asset freezes. Trump stated that the communication was productive, easing expectations rapidly, with Brent crude briefly falling below $100, hitting a low near $98 during the session.
However, the positive sentiment is only at the emotional level; no substantive agreement was reached, and Iran maintained its original negotiation stance, firmly reiterating it will not compromise with the US. Once the news broke, oil prices quickly rebounded, returning to around $103.
The oil price movement of falling first then rising fully illustrates that the current market pricing is highly tied to the progress of geopolitical negotiations, with significant emotional volatility.
Currently, it is only the start of dialogue, and there is still a long way to go before an agreement is reached. The key points to watch going forward are: whether a ceasefire can be implemented and whether navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can be restored.
If the negotiations achieve substantial breakthroughs, the geopolitical risk premium in the energy sector is expected to decline, which would to some extent alleviate global inflation and high interest rate pressures. Conversely, if negotiations stall or break down, with repeated instability in the Middle East, oil prices will likely remain volatile at high levels, and global major asset classes will continue to face pressure.
The market has not immediately moved into a one-sided trend, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty in this game.Costco Q4 net sales reached $93.9 billion, up 11.2% year-over-year, but the stock price softened slightly after hours.
Noted: EPS reported at $6.75, including a one-time tariff rebate gain of $0.15; excluding that, net profit still rose over 12%. The number of warehouses in the US, Canada, and Puerto Rico reached 647, steadily climbing over nearly six years on the fiscal chart.
Same-store sales reported +9.4%, and excluding oil prices and exchange rates, still +6.7%.
Plans to open about 33 new warehouses next year, with capital expenditures around $7.5 billion.
My view: This growth driven by store expansion and member loyalty is more solid than slogans, but the short-term valuation is already not cheap.
My approach: First watch if $COST can hold above the 890 level before considering adding positions; if it fails, same-store sales will fall back to low single digits and renewal rates will clearly weaken.
Do you trust the moat in the financial report more, or this after-hours pullback?
$COST $BTC $IBIT
#EarningsObserver: Costco beats expectations, Micron takes over #BTC rallies then falls back, is market rotation starting?$DOGE has just completed a "break above the 200-day moving average followed by a pullback confirmation," turning bullish in the mid-to-long term. This pullback is a buying opportunity, not the end of the trend.
Current market situation:
The current price is about $0.095. On 9/23, it once surged to $0.105 (a three-month high), then sharply dropped 8% with the broader market, stabilizing right at the $0.0918 support.
Previously, it broke above the 200-day moving average ($0.088) with volume, the first time since this bear market began, which is a technical trend reversal signal; the price remains above this line, so the structure is intact.
RSI has fallen from an overbought 72 to 59, releasing the excessive bullish sentiment. MACD is still above zero with a bullish alignment, indicating upward momentum remains.
Key levels:
Support: $0.091 (previous low) → $0.088 (200-day moving average, lifeline) → $0.083 (50-day moving average). Consider scaling in on pullbacks at these levels.
Resistance: $0.10 (psychological barrier) → $0.105 (previous high). If volume breaks above $0.105, it opens the path to $0.117 and $0.155.
Catalysts are accumulating: DOGE spot ETF net inflows hit a one-month high, whales have quietly accumulated hundreds of millions of tokens, X is integrating with major exchanges, and SpaceX’s DOGE-1 lunar satellite is scheduled for launch in 2027. Once the Meme + Musk narrative ignites during altcoin season, DOGE’s volatility will be significant.
Strategy: Do not chase above $0.10. Test $0.091 lightly, build heavy positions near $0.088, and exit if it breaks below $0.083. Genius co-founder came out to respond.
The core is just three sentences: points are extra benefits, the rules will be adjusted, and my own coins will not be unlocked before the users'.
First question: Does this response count as sincerity?
It does, but only halfway.
He made it clear that "points are not a promise," which is like a preemptive warning.
Second question: So why are users still unhappy?
Because everyone is chasing the airdrop expectation, not that small transaction fee rebate.
When trading volume drops, the points issued daily decrease; this logic itself is fine, but changing the rules before issuing coins makes everyone uneasy.
Final question: What should we watch now?
Watch whether he locks his own coins and for how long.
Keep the verbal promise in mind, but the on-chain unlock schedule is the real signal.
I'm not taking sides in this wave; I'll wait for the unlock data to come out first.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $BTC ARB has dropped 34 times from its ATH, do you see an opportunity or... a pit? 😂
From $2.40 down to around $0.075 — the chart looks like it just fell from the 34th floor to the basement.
But Arbitrum still has an ecosystem, real trading, and actual revenue.
I'm accumulating ARB in parts, not going all-in.
Unlocks are still ongoing, so patience remains the key.
Buy the bottom and get rich, buy the wrong “fake bottom” and become a long-term shareholder! 🤣
$ARB $ZEC ZEC has rebounded above 1550 since 14:55 last night (reason analysis), with the core drivers of this round of rally as follows:
1. Continuous institutional capital deployment, product implementation brings incremental growth
Grayscale Zcash fund ZCSH asset management scale is approaching $890 million, setting a new record; Europe's first physical ZEC ETP was listed on September 22 on the Paris and Amsterdam exchanges, broadening institutional allocation channels and solidifying the bottom support for the coin price.
2. BTC capital spillover narrative continues to ferment
Market views circulate: ZEC in 2026 is comparable to ETH in 2021, continuously absorbing overflow funds from Bitcoin. BTC has a huge scale, and even a small portion of funds rotating to ZEC with a market cap of 26 billion can form a strong buying force; combined with privacy + quantum-resistant asset hedging logic, funds continue to diversify allocation.
3. Dual benefits from mining and ecosystem support
ZEC mining company Fortitude Mining has increased DCG credit line to $50 million, with funds settled in ZEC, used to purchase 9,000 ASIC miners to expand computing power, reflecting long-term confidence from industry players and strengthening network security and coin holding demand; Nym mixnet integrates with Zcash wallet.
4. Technical resistance to decline + upgrade expectations trigger FOMO
The market rejects deep pullbacks, with strong capital support. The market continues to speculate on the NU7 upgrade (expected activation on November 5, optimizing performance and handling Sprout pool funds).Whale long-short ratio is 0.91, not favoring the shorts
On Hyperliquid, whales have opened a total of $9.373 billion in positions.
Long positions are $4.469 billion, short positions are $4.904 billion.
How this number is calculated:
The long-short ratio is shorts divided by longs, 4.904 divided by 4.469, which equals 1.1.
Reversed, 0.91 is longs divided by shorts.
Both numbers describe the same thing, just in opposite directions.
Who is holding on:
A giant whale shorted $ETH with 5x full leverage at $2304.
Currently, the unrealized loss is $40.24 million.
5x full leverage means if losses exceed the principal, the system automatically liquidates the position.
If the price moves up from this level, his position will be passively reduced.
With the long-short ratio close to one, neither side has a big advantage.
What really determines the direction is how much longer that short can hold out.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $ETH A 5% yield on U.S. Treasury bonds acts like a pump, drawing away idle money from the market and drying up coins that survive on stories. The fact that Dogecoin wasn't drained is worth writing about itself.
Its confidence doesn't lie in narratives but in everyday use in wallets. Tipping creators, pooling funds for charity, sending small cross-border transfers—transaction fees are just a few cents, and blocks are confirmed in a minute. These actions repeat daily on the chain, with no whitepaper promises, no lock-up or unlock schedules, no hype calls, and no one showing off profits.
Most crypto assets die in the same place: once the story ends, the use case ends. Dogecoin is the opposite; its use case is its starting point. Merchants accept it because it settles quickly; users hold it because it can be spent. A coin used as money and a coin speculated as a token have two very different destinies.
High interest rates eliminate idle pools, leaving networks with real transaction flows. $DOGE doesn't promise anyone will get rich, but when the faucet tightens, the pipes that still flow are themselves an answer to whether it’s worth anything.Day 26, single-day profit ¥18,005.37, the account finally turned profitable, achieving positive returns for 3 consecutive days, slowly climbing out from a 4-day continuous major drawdown. $BTC $ETH
The crypto market on September 23 was a double blow to both bulls and bears. BTC once surged to $87,000, then quickly fell back to $84,015; ETH dropped below $2,700, hitting a low of $2,651. About $389 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network in 12 hours, mostly long positions.
The core pressure behind this decline remains the macro environment. US Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yield briefly surpassing 5.11%, combined with the US September composite PMI rising to 58.4, the market renewed concerns about inflation and further rate hikes. Expectations for a rate hike in October also clearly increased, and rising oil prices further added pressure on risk assets.
After a loss of ¥8,175 on September 22, I completely reduced my position size and leverage, no longer blindly chasing rallies or panicking on dips. When BTC oscillated repeatedly above 86,000, I did not chase longs; when it broke below 85,000, I did not panic, only lightly tested longs near 83,500, and took timely profits near the 84,500 resistance level.
In 26 days, from loss to profitability again, the biggest gain this time was not predicting the market, but learning to control trading frequency and position size. Facing high volatility and macro uncertainty, making fewer mistakes is more important than frequent trades. Survive first, then talk about profits.目前 BTC 继续保持10倍杠杆做多，持仓约198枚，平均成本 82,160.4美元。按约84,332美元的标记价格计算，浮盈约 43万美元，账户收益率约 26.43%。从仓位结构来看，保证金率仍处于较高水平，暂时没有明显的强平压力，更像是在采用“顺势加仓、让利润奔跑”的交易方式。 ETH 同样维持10倍多头，持仓约1,866枚，平均成本 2,559.65美元。按2,679.31美元计算，浮盈约 87.24 ETH，收益率达到 44.66%。相比BTC，这笔ETH多单的账面回报更加突出，说明这轮行情中ETH的弹性更强，或者进场位置更加精准。 与此同时，SOL多单已经落袋为安。这笔仓位9月18日建立、9月24日平仓，平均进场价约 113.16美元，平均离场价 114.67美元，规模约11万枚SOL，最终实现利润约 15.4万美元，收益率约 12.37%。虽然价格涨幅有限，但在10倍杠杆和大仓位加持下，绝对收益依然可观。 结合最新行情，BTC近期一度突破 86,000美元并刷新阶段高点，但随后受到美债收益率上行影响出现明显震荡；ETH也曾冲击2,800美元附近后回落。 另外，9月25日BT#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
I've laid out the logic behind this recent oil price rollercoaster, and it's quite interesting.
On September 22, the US and Iran held indirect talks in New York for a full 3 hours. Once the news broke, the market immediately started betting on easing expectations, and Brent crude oil plunged below 100, hitting a low of 98 dollars. Trump publicly stated the communication was "productive," and geopolitical panic quickly subsided.
But the reality is harsh: no substantive agreement was reached, and Iran's original conditions remain unchanged. Pezeshkian directly stated they will not surrender to the US, and as soon as he spoke, oil prices quickly rebounded back to around 103.
This round of oil price first falling then rising essentially reflects the market repeatedly repricing geopolitical risk premiums.
The market fantasizes about a deal landing → risk premium removed → oil price drops;
Sees it's just dialogue with no real concessions → panic premium is reinstated.
The key points to watch are two things: whether a ceasefire can be implemented, and whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume normal navigation.
If these two points see substantive progress, the oil price risk premium will truly decline, indirectly easing global inflation pressures and also changing the Fed's interest rate game environment.
But for now, it's just contact, not reconciliation. The talks are only beginning; don't mistake dialogue for results.
Geopolitical situations are highly volatile, and expectation reversals can happen in an instant. Whether in commodities or crypto markets, this line of disturbance cannot be ignored.#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
The news that the US and Iran completed a nearly 3-hour indirect meeting in New York stirred the global commodity and crypto asset markets, triggering a wild rollercoaster ride in oil prices and planting a huge question mark over the entire market: Will the geopolitical risk premium quickly dissipate?
Let's first review the full logical chain of this market move. Once the news broke that Trump publicly described the talks as "productive," the market immediately began trading on expectations of diplomatic easing. Investors quickly played out the scenario in their minds: de-escalation of conflict, resumption of smooth shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, gradual lifting of maritime blockades, and a breakthrough in the stalemate over frozen assets. If this logic materializes, it means the biggest black swan alert on the oil supply side is temporarily lifted. Driven by this expectation, Brent crude oil quickly declined, breaking below the $100 mark intraday and bottoming near $98, with oil-related assets simultaneously experiencing significant pullbacks.
But the optimism was short-lived. After the noise settled, reality was laid bare: this was only an indirect contact dialogue, with no substantive written agreements signed by either side. Iran did not withdraw any of its core demands; Pezeshkian publicly stated there would be no compromise or surrender to the US. All key issues—ceasefire, strait navigation, maritime blockade, frozen assets—remained at the stage of exchanging opinions, with no consensus reached on any point. The market instantly snapped out of its fantasy, and Brent oil prices reversed upward again, rebounding to fluctuate around $103.Recently, the crypto market has experienced several rounds of obvious policy disruptions. After the US CLARITY Act was blocked, the market briefly pulled back quickly, but then BTC rebounded back to around $85,000, indicating that regulatory concerns have not simply translated into sustained selling pressure. Meanwhile, the SEC has introduced temporary exemptions for tokenized stock trading, and the CFTC continues to advance digital asset-related rules. The regulatory direction is not simply "tightening" but gradually becoming clearer and more institutionalized. 1️⃣ Regulatory news often first affects sentiment and volatility When policy changes occur, funds often first reassess risk, and rapid drawdowns in BTC and ETH are not uncommon. However, a single policy announcement cannot directly determine the entire crypto industry's development in the coming years. Bull markets have never been a straight rise; they also experience regulatory shocks, profit-taking, leveraged liquidations, and capital rotation. What really needs to be observed is: after negative news appears, can prices reclaim key positions, and whether capital will continue to flow back. 2️⃣ The long-term logic of the crypto industry exists, but should not be overly mythologized. Decentralization, stablecoins, and asset tokenization remain important directions for ongoing exploration, but this does not mean regulation will make unlimited concessions. Sovereign countries will continue to prioritize financial stability, capital flows, and monetary policy autonomy. Recently, the European Central Bank and the European Central Bank system have proposed adjustments to stablecoin reserve rules under MiCA, reflecting regulatory efforts focused on financial stabilityGuys, I was a bit rushed 😂 again this time. I held long positions on $ETH for a whole week, and the floating profit was decent, but when I closed my position, I forcibly gave up half of it. I just finished my ETH long position, then switched to $BTC short, and I'm still holding my position. Why do I want to short now? My core logic isn't just to be bearish, but to observe whether, after this rally, the market is finally entering a proper adjustment. If BTC breaks below key support and the rebound never recovers, I'll interpret this trend as the second wave correction in the wave pattern. In other words, after August 19, this round of rally may be entering a weekly-level correction phase. After all, for more than a month in a row, the market has hardly seen any real pullback, and the rally has gone too smoothly. In historical trends, it's rare for a market to move unilaterally without giving the market a chance to change hands again. Now, after BTC surged to around $87K, it quickly pulled back, and ETH showed significant volatility above $2,700; Meanwhile, US Treasury yields broke above 5% again, market concerns about future interest rate policies are intensifying, and recent risk assets have started to show signs of cooling. So now, I prefer to observe whether this pullback can deepen, rather than immediately assuming a trend reversal at a single bearish candlestick. Of course, the biggest problem remains—BTC short positions were opened too quickly this time, and the entry position wasn't attractive. If it were just normal volatility, I might actually be washed back and forth#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
After BTC surged above $87,000 and then pulled back, a crucial change is happening in the market: capital is no longer focused solely on Bitcoin.
Glassnode's data has already given a clear signal that the market cycle indicator is shifting in favor of altcoins. In the past week, 72.5% of crypto assets have outperformed BTC.
Public chains, DeFi, and Meme tokens are all stirring: NEAR, UNI, ZEC are steadily strengthening, while Meme coins like PEPE, WIF, DOGE are simultaneously active. The market is expanding from BTC-only gains outward.
But the biggest variable in the market right now is today.
Deribit will see the concentrated expiration of BTC quarterly options with a notional value of about $16 billion. The massive contract settlement is very likely to trigger large-scale adjustments in hedging positions, amplifying short-term volatility.
Looking at the longer term, there is still huge divergence in the market: Will the massive institutional inflows from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and others rewrite BTC's long-standing four-year halving cycle?
The next core observations are twofold:
✅ Whether market volatility can sustain the current rotation rhythm after options expiration
✅ Whether more altcoins continuing to outperform BTC can hold their ground
BTC takes a breather, altcoins take the stage. Is this rotation a short-term pulse or the start of a new market cycle? We wait and see.#BTC pullback after rally, has market rotation begun?
BTC surged to $87,000 this week before facing pressure and pulling back. The focus of capital has gradually shifted from Bitcoin's main trend to diffusion opportunities across the entire crypto market.
Glassnode's cycle indicators have signaled that we have now entered a phase dominated by altcoins, with 72.5% of assets in the tracked set outperforming BTC over the past week. At the sector level, coins like NEAR, UNI, and ZEC have shown structural strength, while Meme assets such as PEPE, WIF, and DOGE have simultaneously warmed up, reflecting a capital overflow effect.
Short-term derivative risks need attention: On September 25, the Deribit platform will see the concentrated expiration of BTC quarterly options with a notional value of about $16 billion. Market makers will likely adjust hedge positions, amplifying short-term market volatility.
Looking at the longer term, the core market divergence centers on institutional capital logic: will continuous buying by spot ETFs and corporate treasuries rewrite BTC's traditional four-year cycle pattern?
The key variables to watch next are the volatility trend after options expiration and whether the rotation trend of alt assets continuing to outperform BTC can persist. One month, a dozen or so trades, earned 80 dollars
The worst thing in a bull market is not missing out.
It's holding on while going against the trend.
What I did: opened a dozen positions simultaneously.
The profits from long positions fully covered the margin for the short positions.
Result: after a busy month, the account gained 80 dollars.
Looking back, this isn’t profit, it’s just working for free.
Lesson: using bear market mindset to trade in a bull market.
If I had cut $ZEC and $ARB earlier, it wouldn’t have been this amount.
To be clear, my real opponent this round isn’t the market makers.
It’s my own unwillingness to cut losses.
Next time I want to hold on, I’ll first ask: is this trade worth it?
Wall Street dogs, welfare recipients, still stuck in place.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $ZEC $ARB Scumbag's observation on SPCX update 9.25
Big Rocket US stock closed at 148.03, down 0.22%, intraday high 149.00, low 145.88
Big Rocket's lowest price is very close to the 30-day moving average, let's see if it will really retest the 30-day moving average tonight. Scumbag has a position layer ready to buy at that level.
The biggest focus for Big Rocket should be next week's Starship 14 launch. Of course, a success could be positive news landing, which might cause the stock price to pull back again for a second bottom test. After all, after Starship 13 launch was completed, the stock price started a more intense correction.
Scumbag's idea is as long as it pulls back, we'll keep buying below, hahahahahahahaha
$SPCX 纽约起诉Polymarket，预测市场合法性进入硬碰硬阶段 纽约州检方正式起诉Polymarket，核心争议不是平台有没有用户，而是一个更大的问题：预测市场到底是金融市场，还是博彩业务？
纽约方面认为，Polymarket提供的事件合约符合博彩定义，但没有取得纽约博彩监管机构的许可，因此属于无牌运营。Polymarket的核心逻辑则是，用户交易的是事件合约，本质上更接近市场交易，而不是传统赌场下注。
这件事对加密市场真正重要的地方在于，预测市场正在从一个小众产品变成越来越大的资金市场，监管机构已经不再只是讨论，而是开始通过诉讼争夺定义权。
传导逻辑也比较清楚：监管诉讼→平台合规不确定性上升→美国部分地区使用限制增加→流动性和用户增长预期承压→预测市场估值和相关项目情绪受到影响。
但另一面也值得关注，如果后续法院明确支持“事件合约属于金融产品”的监管路径，反而可能给整个预测市场建立更清晰的合规框架。
所以短线不要简单理解成“起诉=Polymarket利空”，真正要看的是三个信号：案件是否获得禁令、其他州是否跟进、法院最终如何界定事件合约。
个人判断，这场官司真正影响的不是PolymarkBitget funds were stolen, and the biggest lesson for me is that my funds must never be kept on small exchanges. Except for Binance and Okx, all others are small exchanges.
Secondly, I must never put all my funds in the same exchange. Currently, I have transferred part of my Binance funds to Okx. I earn simple interest on coins in Okx; I cannot keep everything on Binance.
Finally, I currently have no other source of income and am burdened with a huge monthly mortgage payment, so the financial pressure is too great. I have to do low-risk financial management on exchanges to earn some living expenses. If someone is more cautious, they would probably keep everything in a hardware wallet.
I have no other choice now. The monthly interest income can cover my living expenses, and I must have this interest. Also, in my understanding, even if the owners of Binance and Okx get hacked, they can afford to compensate, so the problem should not be too big.#BTC pullback after surge, has market rotation started?
BTC surged to 87,000 then pulled back, altcoins collectively outperforming, has the rotation market really begun?
After BTC surged to 87,000 and then directly pulled back, it’s clearly felt recently that the market has changed, no longer dominated solely by Bitcoin.
Glassnode data also signals this, with cycle indicators shifting to altcoin dominance territory; over 70% of coins outperformed BTC in the past week. Whether mainstream altcoins like NEAR, UNI, ZEC or coins like PEPE, WIF, DOGE, MEME, they have all started to become active in rotation.
But there is a risk point to remember: on September 25, Deribit has $16 billion worth of BTC quarterly options expiring, which will cause massive position adjustments and short-term volatility is inevitable.
The biggest question now: is this altcoin strength a brief rebound or the true start of rotation? Will institutional ETFs and corporate treasury funds rewrite Bitcoin’s four-year cycle old rules?
The market after the options expiry will be the most important observation window ahead; don’t blindly chase highs, patiently watch if the trend can continue.
j#BTC pullback after surge, has market rotation begun?
After BTC surged past $87,000 this week, it experienced a pullback, and market attention is shifting to whether the rally can spread to various crypto assets.
Glassnode data shows market cycle signals turning to "altcoins dominance." In the past week, 72.5% of tracked assets outperformed BTC. NEAR, UNI, ZEC showed strength, and Meme coins like PEPE, WIF, DOGE also became active, indicating signs of sector rotation.
In the short term, on September 25, Deribit will see BTC quarterly options with a notional value of about $16 billion expire, likely triggering hedge position adjustments and increasing market volatility. On the long-term front, market divergence remains: whether institutional funds such as ETFs and corporate treasuries will change BTC's classic four-year cycle.
BTC's high-level retracement saw $444 million long liquidations in 24 hours. Compared to candlestick charts, the macro capital game between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street deserves more attention. Whether the volatility caused by options expiration will interrupt the current rotation rally, and whether altcoins can continue to outperform BTC, are key market watch points going forward.从5.8万看多到10万，中间摸顶失败踏空大段利润——这位巨鲸jasonleo的剧本比K线还曲折。
现在多单综合成本约7.8万，现价8.4万，浮盈在线。他更新了三套作战计划：
剧本一：BTC重新跌破7.9万，陆续平多，不跟趋势对抗。
剧本二：短时间一口气冲到10万，在9.8万到10.5万区间挂防守型空单，对冲周线回调风险。但日线站稳10.8万，空单直接失效认错。
剧本三：不直接冲，在8万到10万之间充分换手再上攻，那就在11.5万到12.5万放空防守。
看出门道没有？真正的高手不是死多头，是"跟着多，但提前想好在哪里反手"。
目标10万没变，变的是对节奏的敬畏。
$BTC $ETH
赚多少钱靠行情，保住多少钱靠计划。Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. Before going to bed last night, I saw $0G bottoming but not breaking the level, funds quietly entering, and the support below holding steadily, so I advised not to panic with long positions.
Opened long at 0.2342, now at 0.2564, floating profit +186.16%, really awesome.
The earlier part was just hesitation, but the outcome is truly sweet.
In operation, first take profit on 70%, keep the remaining 30% at cost price as protection. If it continues to rise, let the profit run; if it falls back, don’t let the gains become uncomfortable. Don’t let profits inflate, don’t despair over pullbacks.
Risk control is done upfront—that’s called rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive.
For those who haven’t entered yet, a word of advice: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. Move only when the next signal appears; I will notify immediately.
$LAB $SOL Buy #BTC 500 days before the halving.
Sell 500 days after the halving.
This cycle has just been broken.
#BTC bottoms out about 655 days before the next halving.
If the bottom appears early, the top may also come early. Be prepared in advance. Bitget protection fund has 464 million dollars, this time 351 million dollars were stolen, leaving 113 million dollars. It is obvious that things inside BG won't go well next, referring to last year's 1.5 billion dollar theft from Bybit.
After withdrawal resumes, I still plan to withdraw my funds. As I always say, don't stand under a dangerous wall.BP上涨超40%，能源行情还能走多远？ BP日内涨超40%，并突破1.26美元续创历史新高。单日这种涨幅，市场交易的已经不只是公司本身，而是能源板块背后的地缘风险和供给预期。
最近油价高位运行，核心逻辑还是美伊冲突、霍尔木兹以及全球能源供应的不确定性。传导到市场就是：地缘风险上升→原油风险溢价增加→油气公司盈利预期改善→能源股资金涌入→板块估值重估。
但这里有一个反向逻辑也要注意。
如果油价继续上涨→能源通胀压力增加→市场重新交易美联储加息预期→10Y美债收益率和美元走强→美股估值承压→BTC等风险资产受到压制。
所以能源股大涨，对能源板块本身是利好，但对整个风险资产未必是好消息。
短线我更关注两个信号：第一，BP大涨之后能不能继续放量突破，而不是冲高回落；第二，WTI原油能不能继续维持高位。如果油价开始回落，但BP仍然强势，说明市场交易的是盈利预期；如果油价和BP同时快速回落，就要防范地缘溢价兑现。
个人判断，现在能源股已经进入高波动阶段，追涨的性价比和前期明显不同。对币圈来说，真正重要的不是BP涨多少，而是油价会不会把通胀和加息预期重新推起来。
交易顺序还是：原油→通胀预期→10YZcash ETF single-week net inflow of $98.21 million, ranking first among 14 types of crypto spot ETFs, surpassing Bitcoin's 12 ETFs combined net inflow of $6.21 million for the entire week. Bitcoin ETFs showed the closest to zero net flow in 141 trading weeks, indicating clear signs of capital rotation.
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $BTC According to the MVRV momentum chart, on the day of the post on September 18, the indicator had already turned green.
(1) The MVRV momentum has returned to the positive zone, and the long-term structure is starting to lean bullish. If a pullback occurs later, it is more likely an opportunity rather than the end of the trend.
(2) In 2019 and 2023, it took about 80 days and 87 days respectively from the momentum turning green to the first wave of the bull market's initial peak; this time it has been about 7 days as of today. History is only for reference, not a countdown.🔍 Can ZEC Hit $2,000 Before Year-End?
ZEC sits at $1,541, riding a rising channel since August. Extend it and the top line meets $2,000 in October.
Fuel: 4 straight weeks of Grayscale ETF inflows, Europe's first physical ZEC ETP, and NU7 targeted for November 5.
Risk: momentum is fading and upgrades can turn into sell-the-news.
A daily close above $1,675 puts $2,000 in play. Lose $1,250 and the trend cools.
$2,000 by year-end, or a reset first?
Not financial advice. $ZEC $BTC $ETH Looking at the market this morning, BTC is hovering around $84,400, with a slight drop in the last 24 hours. Interestingly, the Fear and Greed Index remains steady at 71, indicating the market sentiment is still "greedy." However, the market clearly shows hesitation, which is probably the most honest contradiction today.
The biggest variable today is options settlement. Deribit has about $15.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts expiring today, accounting for more than one-third of its total open interest. Prices tend to be pinned near the maximum pain point around settlement dates, and the $84,000 to $85,000 range is very likely today's "cage."
On-chain, there is a reassuring signal. The giant whale "First set 10 big targets" updated their strategy this morning: the average long position price is about $78,000, and as long as it doesn't fall below $79,000, they won't move. They plan to build defensive short hedges in the $98,000–$105,000 range on rallies. This "hold the base position, hedge at highs" approach indicates that large funds do not intend to liquidate at this level.
But the macro leash is still tight. The probability of a rate hike in October is 75%, with core PCE at 3.4%. The good news is that ETF funds are still flowing in; Fidelity's FBTC recorded a net inflow of $12.9 million this morning.
My personal judgment is not to bet on direction today. $83,400–$83,600 is strong support, $84,670–$84,930 is resistance. On options settlement day, both longs and shorts will be shaken; it's better to wait until after settlement to make a move. $BTC got rejected near $87K, but the top isn’t confirmed yet.
Today’s move:
- $87K → $84.3K within hours
- ~$280M longs liquidated
- $80K–$82K support remains key
If BTC holds $82K this week, a retest of $89K–$90K could be next.
Lose $82K, and $75K comes back into focus.
I’m still holding my long from $84.2K.
Where’s your stop-loss? 👀#BTCPullbackAltRotation
#USIranRiskPremium #BTC There is a large amount of liquidity stacked below 80K and 75K, while above is almost empty.
This kind of structure usually means the price is more likely to sweep down first, eating up the accumulated liquidations, before deciding the direction.
Less resistance above does not mean it will rise; it might just not be its turn yet. $BTC big coin can't get above 8.5. The rebound is over. The next target is around 81k. The current trend looks very fake. Preparing to reduce positions at 80.3k and play with the remaining positions. After all, even in a bull market, there will be corrections. It has risen all the way from 6.2 to 8.7. During this period, it only pulled back once from 81k to 7.4. No correction yet. There will definitely be a correction.In the past 24 hours, two giant whales opened $171 million worth of long Bitcoin positions within four hours. Meanwhile, the entire network liquidated $491 million, with $366 million of long positions liquidated and only $124 million of short positions liquidated. Whale Garrett Jin cleared out Hyperliquid and dumped 147 million USDC directly into Binance. This move is not a gift; it's to accumulate chips.
BTC current price is 84,735. The TV moving averages are still in a bullish arrangement, but the MACD has already formed a death cross, and momentum is clearly lagging. The liquidation map shows a large cluster of shorts between 84,700 and 85,500, making it highly probable to trigger a bull trap if it touches 86,000. There is strong support between 82,000 and 83,000.
I just opened the security booth window for some fresh air. Outside, a car is blocking the door honking the horn. I'm too lazy to get up, so I'll watch this pullback first.
In terms of trading, 85,500 is resistance; do not chase longs before a volume breakout. If the price fails to rally, it will likely retest 83,000 to hunt long liquidity. Range trading: light short positions near 85,500, defend at 86,000, take profit at 83,000; buy on pullbacks between 83,000 and 82,500, defend at 81,800, take profit at 84,500. Beware of wick spikes and shakeouts; avoid heavy positions.
$BTC
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
@OKX星球 BTC just surged to around 87,000 a couple of days ago, ETH touched 2780–2800, looking like it was about to take off; but on 9/24 a big bearish candle knocked sentiment back—BTC dropped to 83,000–84,000, ETH fell to 2650–2700.
It's not that the trend collapsed, but the combination of "too strong a surge + US Treasury yields breaking 5% + $18 billion quarterly options expiry" all happening together made the bulls take a breather and leverage get flushed out.
BTC: The weekly chart is still strong (over 10% gain in 7 days), but short-term it shifted from a "short squeeze rally" to "consolidation in the 83,000–85,000 range."
Holding above 83,000 = strong pullback; closing above 85,000 = another push to 87,000; breaking below 82,000 would signal weakness.
ETH: a bit softer than BTC. 2800 is a hard resistance, 2700 is the watershed, 2600 is the lifeline.
Right now it’s "BTC holding up while ETH’s catch-up rally failed and got pressed back by macro factors." ETFs are still buying, but short-term momentum has cooled.
Don’t panic on spot; don’t fight hard around options expiry on futures. Wait to choose direction after key levels like 83,000/2700 are decided.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ At the 10 o'clock slot, looking at the 10-year US Treasury and Friday's expiration stacked together—$BTC's 1H chart feels a bit tight.
The US Treasury yield is still hovering around 5.11%, roughly the highest since 2007; when real yields push up, risk assets naturally suffer. This afternoon, about $16 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, making the market prone to twists before the weekend.
OKX spot is fluctuating around 84,580, having pulled back from about 82,870 in 24h, with a high touching 84,940. First, watch if 84,000–84,500 can hold steady; whether it will hard charge above 85,000 depends on how the macro noise settles.
In the short term, don't go against the sentiment; keep positions light when macro conditions tighten.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #Macro #USTreasury #OptionsExpiration #84000Level #FridayMorningSession #RiskWarning
The above is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; decisions should be made cautiously.5U challenged 10,000 times, reaching the fifth day. Today, the account experienced a relatively noticeable drawdown. 7.6U → 6U。 In just one day, the drawdown was nearly 20%. This was also the most obvious loss since the challenge began. But today, however, made me realize a very important issue: often, we can make money not just because our trading skills are strong, but because we just happen to encounter favorable market conditions. When the market is good, many trades seem easy. When BTC rises, market sentiment improves, altcoins follow. At this point, grabbing a few strong coins might make money. But once the market environment changes, the previously effective trading methods may quickly fail. Today is a very typical example. 1. Today's biggest problem: getting carried away The biggest reason for today's loss isn't a single trade misjudgment. Instead: Getting on top. Seeing the market performing poorly, then seeing a few altcoins suddenly surge. So they start thinking: "This coin is so strong, maybe it can go against the trend." So I go in. But it surges and then pulls back. Stop-loss. Then another coin starts to rally. "This should be different." Go in again. Surges and pulls back again. Stops again and stops again. Gradually, a very bad cycle forms: seeing an uptrend → chasing in→ surging then pulling back → stop-loss → then looking for the next rising coin → stop-loss. After a day of trading, the account keeps going non-stop9.373 billion in positions, long-short ratio 0.91, shorts still slightly more.
But flipping the profit and loss column, longs earn 621 million, shorts lose 661 million.
The money piles up on the short side, but people are counting money on the long side. This scene must be quite frustrating for the project team — the traffic is theirs, the positions are theirs, the fees are theirs, just not the direction.
That whale who shorted ETH with 5x full position entered at 2304, now floating a loss of 40.24 million. 5x full position, this is no longer a judgment issue, it's a position management issue. Leveraging against the trend is no different from gambling with your life.
A reflection: Hyperliquid data looks good, but what looks good is the scale, not the win rate. A high short ratio doesn't mean shorts are right, it just means shorts are stubborn.
Just watch one point going forward — if ETH keeps going up, when will this batch of shorts start to panic sell.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $ETH Just bought $PONS and it immediately dropped 😂
But strangely, this time I'm not panicking at all.
Before, when I bought a coin and it dropped right after, my first reaction was to wonder if I bought the wrong one, and I wanted to sell immediately. Now, I've come to realize—holding coins might be even harder than being single; the real challenge isn't buying, but holding on.
If you truly believe in the project's long-term logic, what's the big deal if it drops a bit in the short term?
Right now, I see PONS a bit like $UNI when it first came out.
In the early stages of a project, many things are uncertain: the team's capability, business model, revenue, and risk resistance all need time to be verified. Even if the fundamentals improve, it doesn't mean the coin price will immediately rise; short-term prices are mostly driven by capital and market sentiment.
UNI also experienced a crazy surge back then, reaching about $42.5 at its peak in May 2021. Today, Uniswap's business and revenue capabilities have changed compared to the early days, but the price still hasn't returned to those highs.
So I think, believing in a project's long-term value and predicting its short-term price increase are two different things.
I will continue to hold PONS.
Not afraid of drops, and don't get carried away when it rises.
In the end, playing coins might be not just about insight, but also about mindset.
If you believe in it, just give it some time.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美股探索代币化与全天候交易 Big players are meeting, and all global assets are waiting for a joint statement. The US stock market is waiting, gold is waiting, crude oil is waiting, and BTC is also waiting.
$BTC is currently at 84600, flat for a whole day. How flat? The 24-hour fluctuation is less than 500 points. This might not mean much normally, but at the position just after the 87,000 pullback, what does this indicate? It means both bulls and bears are waiting for news, and no one dares to make the first move.
This is called the calm before the storm.
The calmer it is, the bigger the volatility after the news comes out. Because all the leverage is accumulated, all the energy is pent up, and once the news breaks, it releases instantly.
If positive, it will surge directly to 87,000, even touch 90,000.
If negative, it will drop to 81,000 or even lower.
But how do I judge? I lean positive.
It's not a blind guess. Both sides have a need to reach an agreement. The West has elections and political achievements to consider. The East wants stability and economic growth. The wording of the trade talks has already signaled—"constructive."
Of course, there could be surprises. If talks collapse, it will fall as it should.
But the high probability is positive, with a low probability of problems. We bet on the high probability and admit if we're wrong.
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 Public source (CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost 9/24): The on-chain "short-term holding cost line crossing above the active long-term holding cost line" has appeared for the fifth time, labeled as a "Bull Market Confirmed" type signal; previous occurrences were in 2012/2015/2019/2023. During the same window, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow totaling about 2.06 billion USD from 9/21 to 9/23, but daily inflows are decreasing, and the current price is still hovering around 84,000.
My own view (not a trading call):
1. The fifth crossover is a structural clue, not a buy signal—historical samples are few, so allowing room for error is more important than slogans.
2. ETF is buying, price is consolidating, both can be true simultaneously: continuity is more useful than single-day headlines, and decreasing inflows should also be noted.
3. Operationally: treat the signal as background; position sizing should still be managed according to the 84,000 key level and your own ability to withstand volatility; don’t take the phrase "Bull Market Confirmed" as a reason to add positions.
The structure can be biased bullish, but don’t let the headlines dictate the rhythm. Do you now trust the on-chain crossover more, or do you trust whether the current price can hold the key level?Public source (Herald et al. 9/25): After BTC touched about 87,000 on Tuesday, it fell back to around 83,000–84,000 during the Korean Chuseok holiday window; this morning the public price is hovering around 84,300–84,400. According to Glassnode, the range of about 84,000–85,000 is written as the most concentrated buying zone for long-term holders, with the next resistance level projected by MVRV at about 96,700; if 84,000 is lost, the next support level falls to about 77,000.
My own breakdown (not a trading call):
1. These days look more like a "liquidity thinning during the holiday" pullback, don’t mistake a single holiday bearish candle for a trend reversal
2. Around 84,000 is a watershed, not just a slogan—if it holds, there’s still room above on the books; if it doesn’t hold, first reassess the depth of the pullback
3. Manage positions according to key levels: keep light positions to see if it can hold, don’t lock your position during the holiday window expecting an immediate run to 96,000
You can chase the next target for excitement, but don’t tie your position to holiday sentiment. Are you focusing more on whether 84,000 can hold, or waiting for volume to return after the holiday before making a move? Cloud Services
NBIS >CRWV > IREN
$NBIS ｜Fastest scale growth, strong orders from Microsoft + Meta, debt structure clearly better than CRWV, and a more balanced global layout. Still the most recognized leader by capital.
$CRWV ｜Largest computing power, biggest orders, most prestigious clients, but also the largest debt. The biggest issue is about $35.6 billion total debt.
$IREN ｜Its biggest advantage is actually power resources and future expansion space, with over 5GW of signed/planned power globally, and has already secured orders from several giants. The only drawback is that it is in a transition phase, previously focused on mining.Good morning brothers, I am Bai Qing, determined to become a genius teenager in the crypto world!
Currently on the 30th day of compounding starting with 500U, total assets around 2400.
$ETH rebounded a bit after a sharp rise and fall early this morning, not much though. I really admire those who went all in long or short at this point. Personally, I think opening long or short positions now is not cost-effective. Even when Ethereum dipped to my expected add position yesterday, I didn’t act. Currently, it’s consolidating between 2600-2700. The mid-term view still sees around 3100, but in the short term, if it doesn’t break through 2720 or fall below 2620, it will basically consolidate here for a few days. However, with the mainland holiday on October 6, it’s uncertain if there will be any external disturbances, so this is not a good time to go all in. I reviewed the volatility around October 1 in previous years, and it was quite large. For someone cautious like me, definitely no action. After a month of trading, with the holiday coming up, it’s better to rest lightly.
Here, I wish brothers a happy holiday and daily profits.$LTC: Go long!
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back and stabilize in the 70.0-70.8 range (MA5 and key round number support zone) before entering a long position.
· Target the previous high at 74.9 first; if it breaks through effectively, hold until 78.0; set stop loss below 69.0.
Core basis:
1. Bullish moving averages: On the 4-hour chart, MA5 (71.0), MA10 (67.3), and MA20 (64.7) are diverging upwards. After a strong rally from 61.7, the overall trend is very strong. Pulling back near MA5 is a good point to follow the trend and go long.
2. Short squeeze expectation from chip data: Smart money data shows a nominal long-short ratio as high as 252%. Whales’ average long cost is only 61.6 with substantial unrealized profits, while shorts are deeply in loss. Combined with 2.92 million short liquidations in 24 hours far exceeding longs, this easily triggers a short squeeze rally.
3. Pattern and capital cooperation: After a sharp rise, the high-level low-volume consolidation is a typical bullish continuation pattern. In the last 30 minutes, whale net buying (576,000) far exceeds net selling (251,000), indicating bulls are still accumulating on dips. Directly breaking the previous high is less likely; a pullback to consolidate profit-taking before pushing higher is more stable.
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ Not logging into alpha for many days caused large-scale liquidation among the top ranks. How confident are you that #GSTOCK will go alpha? 2026.9.25 #GSTOCK Top 40 token holder address data changes: New entries into top 40: 8 people total, 1 opened a position, 7 increased positions; among those increasing positions, 2 also sold. Exited top 40: 8 people total, 5 fully liquidated, 2 halved their positions, 1 naturally dropped out. Top 40 increased positions: 8 people total. Top 40 decreased positions: 2 people total. GSTOCK daily key summary: This time, 8 addresses newly entered the top 40, most of which had previous holdings and now increased their positions significantly. However, 2 addresses started reducing positions shortly after increasing. Among those who dropped out of the top 40, 5 fully liquidated with very large amounts, including the previous ranks 2 and 6. Regarding increases and decreases in the top 40, both in number and people, those increasing positions far outnumber those decreasing. The data shows serious divergence here, possibly due to many days without alpha, causing some top holders to give up. The token price drop was caused by previous ranks 2, 6, 7, and 11 selling off within the last few hours; these 4 addresses sold over 40 million tokens, and some addresses are still reducing positions, with a total amount close to 1 million USD. However, there are still some buyers increasing positions; otherwise, the token price drop would be more obvious. Currently, the market has not stabilized and is in a high volatility range. This drop will lead to a major turnover. Given the current situation, do you still believe GSTOCK will go alpha? Of course, single kills will keep monitoring the market.The same level was hit twice in a row and failed, $87,300 became the toughest ceiling above $BTC.
Bitcoin was suppressed and fell back twice near 87,300, once dropping below 84,000, with heavy selling pressure at this price level.
But don’t conclude a top just because of two rejections. This round quickly surged from 75,000, accumulating a large amount of leverage. After the second failed breakout, over 280 million in liquidations occurred, which looks more like a cleanup of chasing high funds.
External pressure cannot be ignored. The US dollar index is rising, short-term bond yields are climbing, and rate hike expectations are reemerging. BTC has to contend with the broader environment of rising capital costs.
Focus on two key ranges: if the lower range of 83,600–82,000 holds, the trend structure remains intact; if the upper range breaks and holds above 87,300 with volume, it can open up space with a target toward 90,000.
The biggest caution: the first two failed breakouts scared many away, and on the third breakout, the market often doesn’t give an opportunity to get in.Thought I could profit from both longs and shorts, but ended up with nothing!
Both long positions I opened yesterday hit stop loss.
The problem is, in my post yesterday, I said to look for a short entry,
not to go long.
Why did I get the direction right but not the action?
Why did I go long?
Because I believe the current market is bearish,
but I also think that after a big wave of gains,
if the first major drop happens,
the decline should quickly retrace back near the previous high,
then dip again.
So I thought I could profit from both sides,
long and short.
But in the end, I got nothing,
just stopped out.In this BTC bear market, for the first time in history, the closing price never fell below the "Realized Price".
This means:
The average cost line of holders was never breached, indicating that the vast majority of BTC holders have been in profit throughout the entire cycle.
In past bear markets, falling below the realized price meant massive sell-offs and panic, but this time it did not.
This shows that the chip structure is more stable than in previous cycles, but it also means the "bottom chips" have not been completely washed out—
The real risk in the next cycle may not lie in the price, but in when that batch of profit holders who have never been shaken out will choose to cash out.