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Nonfarm Night: Positive News Realized as Selling Pressure
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with previous figures revised down and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The data itself is somewhat positive, but the market showed a "rally then sell-off" pattern.
QQQ once broke through 746 and surged to a record high of 754, but lacked strong support at the top and pulled back to 740; if it falls below this, the strong trend will be questioned. $BTC quickly rose from 86,000 to 87,200, but after chasing the rally, buying funds immediately faced selling pressure, plunging to 85,500. Short-term moving averages weakened, with 84,200 as the next support. ETH touched 2,777 during the day; after the positive news was digested, it closed with a long bearish candle, retreating near 2,700; if 2,700 breaks, 2,640 will be tested.
Overall, expectations led the way and facts were realized, with funds retreating from highs, causing stocks and crypto to cool down simultaneously. The key going forward is not how good the data is, but whether support levels can hold. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $ETH has been chopping around vs $BTC for the past few weeks.
No real action here besides some intra day volatility here and there.
But the trend has been up since June. As long as BTC remains its bullish market structure, I do believe ETH will at least keep up if not outperform. Just like it has been doing.
If the market were to go risk off for whatever reason, the Daily 200MA/EMA would be a good level to watch on the ETH/BTC pair.$PEPE just got a new institutional angle.
Canary Capital amended its filing for a spot PEPE ETF, proposing a Cboe BZX listing.
PEPE is down ~6.8% today.
That’s what makes this interesting:
a regulated investment route is being developed while the token is selling off.
Is this just a meme coin — or is the market building a new liquidity channel around it?#Must-Read for Beginners: Is the S&P 500 Better for Lump Sum Investment or Dollar-Cost Averaging?
Regarding this question, long-term historical data provides a very interesting answer👇
📊 Multiple historical backtests of U.S. stocks show: Lump Sum investment outperforms Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) in most periods, commonly winning about 66%–73% of the time.
For example, spreading funds over 12 months compared to investing all at once can result in an average difference of about 1.5%–2.3% after one year. The gap may widen further with a longer investment horizon.
Why?
The core reason is: the earlier the money enters the market, the longer it benefits from compounding.
But there is an important premise here⚠️
Currently, the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is at a historically high level. High valuations mean future long-term returns may be lower than historical averages, so even if historical data supports lump sum investing, it does not mean blindly going "All in" at any time is appropriate.
If you cannot tolerate short-term drawdowns, consider entering gradually over 3–6 months to balance capital utilization and psychological pressure.
There is no absolute answer in investing; historical statistics are a reference, and risk tolerance and investment horizon are equally important.$FIL has been rising for several consecutive days, and there may be a deep pullback to 0.85 to 0.98 later.
$BTC is also at a relatively previous high point, both require a pullback and consolidation, so chasing the high now is not recommended.
Enter in batches after the pullback is confirmed later.
Beware of downward spikes!Wealth accumulation can actually be divided into three stages.
The first stage, when the principal is still small, don't keep thinking about doubling your money through investments. At this time, the most important thing is not the investment return rate, but improving your ability to earn money and your labor value.
The second stage, when you have a certain amount of principal, you can't rely solely on your salary. You need to start enhancing your cognition, look for mispriced opportunities in the market, and create returns through judgment and information asymmetry.
The third stage, when the capital scale is large enough, you don't have to compete with the market every day. What really matters is understanding the trends of the times, going with the flow, and letting long-term trends become a driving force for wealth growth.
More than two thousand years ago, Sima Qian summarized in "Records of the Grand Historian · The Account of Wealth":
"Without wealth, rely on strength; with little, rely on wisdom; when abundant, compete with the times."
When you have no money, rely on ability; when you have money, rely on cognition; when capital is large enough, rely on trends.
Wealth growth has never been about sticking to one method all the way through, but about continuously switching your ways of making money as the stages change.🔥 The most worrisome thing is not that the price has dropped, but that it has risen with no one stepping in to buy.
After the surprising non-farm payrolls data, BTC once surged to 87238, ETH touched 2760, and SOL briefly stood above 122.
It seemed like the three brothers were all performing, but soon after, they collectively gave back gains.
What’s truly worth watching is the capital flow:
BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, and the previously continuous inflow momentum is cooling down.
This is quite awkward——
Prices can still be driven by sentiment, but trends require real money to support them.
BTC is now focused on 82000, ETH on 2400; as long as these key levels aren’t broken, the market still has room for repeated battles.
But if capital keeps withdrawing and key supports are lost, then it’s no longer something that can be explained away as just a “shakeout.”
So the most important thing now isn’t guessing tops or bottoms, but watching:
When prices fall, is there anyone stepping in to buy?
When breaking through, watch for acceptance; when pulling back, watch for support.
The above is just personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 🚨 Bad jobs data doesn’t automatically mean BTC goes up. Don’t get trapped by the headline.
The US non-farm payrolls came in much weaker than expected, which significantly reduced expectations for an October rate hike.
But here’s the thing 👇
$BTC is still facing heavy selling pressure overhead, with plenty of sell orders sitting above. So I’m not trying to catch a falling knife here. I’d rather wait for a proper pullback and see how price reacts before considering a long.
#DailyOrbit The Ethereum Foundation recently launched zkAPI: users can deposit funds into contracts on Ethereum and then authorize API usage with zero-knowledge proofs, attempting to separate payment identity from specific requests. This adds a new payment scenario oriented towards AI and other services on the network that ETH relies on, but "new use cases" do not immediately translate into large on-chain demand, nor can they directly infer a price increase; short-term prices still depend on whether funds actually flow in, overall risk appetite, and whether buying pressure can hold key levels.
The market is oscillating weakly with moderate strength. The daily moving average structure remains bullish, indicating that the larger-scale upward framework has not been broken; however, the 4-hour close is just around EMA50 and below EMA20, RSI is in the neutral zone, and the range of highs and lows over the past 20 bars also shows this trend is still digesting volatility. ETF fund flows are also mixed: recent reports mention a weekly net inflow for Bitcoin ETFs and a net outflow for Ethereum ETFs, showing institutional demand has not simultaneously tilted towards ETH. This weakens the confidence that buying will immediately follow positive news, but a single week's fund flow cannot prove a trend reversal.
There are signs of a short-term rebound but still lack continuous confirmation: the 30-minute RSI is rising, closing slightly above EMA20 but still below EMA50; the 15-minute chart is above both moving averages, yet volume has noticeably contracted from the previous period. In other words, short-term buying temporarily dominates but does not mean mid-term pressure has been relieved. $BTC is currently better suited to wait for confirmation and not chase the rebound.
$ETH $BTC Can $CT continue to surge upward? Keep a close eye on market signals
Many people are watching CT, curious whether this rally still has momentum to continue rising. From the market perspective, this round of CT's rise is entirely driven by concentrated capital speculation. The short-term heat remains, sentiment hasn't fully cooled off, so there's a possibility of further surges, but the risk is already maxed out.
Its biggest advantage is that the protocol has a real profit narrative, and short-term capital is willing to assign a high valuation. With sector heat supporting it, pulse-like spikes are easy to occur. However, its weakness is very critical: the project has been online for a short time, hasn't been tested through bull and bear cycles, and there will be large unlocks and selling pressure later. Once capital rotation happens and no continuous incremental funds enter, it can quickly plunge. It rises sharply but falls just as mercilessly.
In terms of strategy, chasing gains at high levels is not recommended. Those holding positions should set profit-taking lines and sell in batches, keeping a small position to play the final tail-end rally; those who haven't entered should mostly observe and avoid heavy positions at high levels. This kind of new hot target is extremely volatile, and if the overall market pulls back, its retracement will far exceed mainstream coins. Leverage must be kept far away. #NVIDIA stock price hits a new all-time high, market value approaches $6 trillion
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
NVIDIA breaking highs and rushing to $6 trillion is not just about "good graphics card sales," but the market is repricing the "rent rights" for AI capital expenditures:
Cloud providers, sovereign AI, and enterprise inference are all feeding NVDA's GPU + network + software stack, with CUDA moat keeping competitors at bay in the second tier.
But let's pour some cold water: $6 trillion corresponds to the extreme expectation that "growth cannot slow down in the next few years."
The valuation already includes assumptions of Blackwell volume ramp-up, TSMC CoWoS capacity, and electricity and cooling costs that can keep up. Any layer (cloud provider capex marginal slowdown, competitor acceleration, interest rates rising again) shaking will cause a pullback harsher than in 2024.
My view: NVDA is not to be shorted against the trend, but don't chase it with full position!
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat 87,000 didn't hold, bulls first paid 430 million
87,000 USD surged up then pulled back, Bitcoin stayed around 84,600 over the weekend. The Fear & Greed Index remains at 67 "Greed," but the price is heading down first. Sentiment and candlesticks are not aligned today.
Intraday high on October 2 was about 87,086 USD, then dropped to around 84,600 on the 3rd, a pullback of about 2,500 USD from the high. The entire network saw 434 million USD liquidated in 24 hours, with long positions at 322 million USD, accounting for 74%. The price didn't crash, but leverage was cleared first.
There are really only three things pricing in today.
1. Nonfarm payrolls were weaker than expected. US added 29,000 jobs in September, while the market expected about 90,000; unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and the previous two months were revised down by 60,000. The probability of a "no change" interest rate decision in October is traded above 75%. Macro is a floor, not an accelerator.
2. Institutions are buying the dip, not the breakout. Citi raised its 12-month target from 82,000 USD to 113,000 USD. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF net bought about 1.57 billion USD in the past month; on October 2, spot ETF net inflow was about 103 million USD, almost all from IBIT alone, while Fidelity was still outflowing that day. Money is on the market, but hands chasing highs are not.
3. Weekend altcoin solo rallies. While majors move sideways or even pull back, some tokens doubled in a single day. This is a liquidity vacuum script, not a sector-wide start. Bitcoin rose about 43% in Q3, the strongest quarter since the end of 2024, still about 30% below the previous high near 126,000 USD in October 2025. The first rejection candle after a strong quarter is more worth watching than altcoin gains.
A pitfall: around 87,000 was already rejected, and volume was thin over the weekend. Adding longs at this level, liquidation orders have already given the answer. If it doesn't hold above 85,000, don't interpret the pullback as a shakeout. Look first to the 83,900 level below, which is the near-term low of this pullback.
Which is the next valid line, 85,000 or 83,900?
#Bitcoin #Nonfarm #ETF #Liquidation #WeekendMarket
$BTC $MUBARAK continues to go long, feels like it can still go up to 0.08 or directly rush to 0.1, set a take profit at 0.1, start holding long-term, after all, going long all along has already gained some, this altcoin is really strong.Recently watching Big Brother Maji, it feels like his position adjustments are like a fast break. The position size switches back and forth at the hundred-million level, taking profits when it rises and trying again when it falls, his hand speed is really fast.
He first held 536 BTC, cut down to 369 BTC after a small loss to avoid a wave; when the market picked up, he increased to 546 BTC, then reduced to 405 BTC to take profits; now holding 390 BTC, average price 84,700, liquidation at 71,600. Overall, the rhythm is quite precise.
ETH fluctuates between 32,000 and 38,000 coins. After making a profit of 2.18 million at a high point, he reduced positions, but recently added back to 37,000 coins, giving back floating profits and actually losing 380,000, with daily funding fees of 1.18 million and liquidation at 2,540. This is the period with the greatest pressure.
HYPE was replenished from 200,000 to 226,000, reduced to 179,000 at a high point to turn losses into profits; now holding 169,000 coins, floating loss of 230,000, liquidation at 57.
This round of position adjustments is more like continuously calibrating his risk exposure: taking profits when the market is hot, trying when volatility is greater. The direction may not be right every time, but at least he hasn’t locked his positions. Watching for fun is fine, but truly following his trades depends on your own cost and risk tolerance. $ETH $HYPE $BTC 🚨 SEC Approves 3x BTC and ETH Leveraged Products, The Real Breakthrough Might Be Underestimated!
On October 2nd, the U.S. SEC officially approved Cboe BZX rule changes allowing the listing of 3× Bitcoin and 3× Ether leveraged products.
But to be clear: these are not 3x spot BTC/ETH ETFs. The products mainly gain exposure through CME BTC and ETH futures, aiming to track approximately 3 times the daily performance of the underlying assets, not a long-term 3x multiplier on gains.
What’s truly noteworthy is that Wall Street is bringing high-leverage crypto trading further into traditional securities markets.
In the past, investors seeking high-leverage crypto exposure often used futures, perpetual contracts, or crypto exchanges; in the future, U.S. securities accounts might directly trade these leveraged products.
If these products attract significant capital after listing, the impact could start from CME futures open interest, volume, and basis, then transmit to the spot market through market maker hedging and arbitrage. In a one-sided market, the daily rebalancing mechanism could further amplify short-term volatility.
So the real importance this time isn’t "Will BTC skyrocket tomorrow?" but rather:
BTC and ETH are evolving from Wall Street investment targets into mature leveraged trading assets.
The next key point is to see how much real money flows in after the official listing. $BTC $ETH 🚨 ZEC is already down hard… so why is the big money STILL shorting?
$ZEC continues to get hammered, but the interesting part is what’s happening behind the scenes. The number of short sellers dropped by 75, yet the total short position amount surged by more than $22M. 👀
Normally, when price falls, the value of existing shorts should fall too. Instead, the short position value is climbing — suggesting that fresh capital is still adding to the short side.
#DailyOrbit The market has been swinging wildly these past two days, leaving traders frustrated. Last night, the data started small and then surged, with the non-farm payrolls opening the floodgates big time. The biggest issue in the market now isn't the price going up or down, but the decreasing liquidity: the market keeps sweeping back and forth, and the existing funds within the market are getting thinner and thinner. The effect of dumb money that could make profits blindly is missing, and outside funds are reluctant to enter. Without new inflows, the market will only become more extreme and profits harder to come by. Essentially, it's a filtering process, and in the end, only the veterans remain. The recent 1-hour resistance is between 848 and 851; only a close above this range will trigger a new round of rebound. Support below is seen between 840 and 841. $BTCA bit of context: before catching the winner, I shorted the top once before, but then with local order flo So after every entry, usually, I look for those order flow signs of it flipping. Usually one of three things happen: dip buying, then you get no double top but just a straight drop, mild absorption, or weak aggression, which then, you get a lower high. Or finally, aggressive trend chasers into spot buys and limit orders. Essentially, three points on the spectrum of trend-follow-up aggressiA bit of context: before catching the winner, I shorted the top once before, but then with local order flo So after every entry, usually, I look for those order flow signs of it flipping. Usually one of three things happen: dip buying, then you get no double top but just a straight drop, mild absorption, or weak aggression, which then, you get a lower high. Or finally, aggressive trend chasers into spot buys and limit orders. Essentially, three points on the spectrum of trend-follow-up aggressiEntering the fourth quarter, my focus is less on whether Bitcoin can continue to strengthen, and more on whether market funds will further flow from $BTC to $ETH, $SOL, and other major mainstream assets. If funds start to rotate noticeably, it means market risk appetite may be expanding; if funds remain highly concentrated in Bitcoin, it indicates investors still prefer a defensive stance. 🔥 BTC rising is one signal, 🌐 broader market participation is another. Next, pay close attention to BTC Dominance, ETF fund flows, and the relative strength of ETH/SOL—these data points may be more worth watching than pure price fluctuations. #BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto #Altcoins #Q4Crypto #CryptoMarketChecking the top gainers before 1 AM, Metaverse is moving again—$SAND spot is around 0.074, up about 17% from the 24-hour open at 0.063, with a daily high of 0.084 and a daily low of 0.059, and trading volume close to 13 million USD.
The contract open interest is about 11 million USD, with a noticeable negative funding rate of around -0.4%. South Korea just lifted its trading warning a couple of days ago, and the capital aftershocks are still shaking the market. BTC is around 84,800, ETH about 2681. For the short term, watch the 0.070 area and avoid chasing the spike; wait for a pullback to observe.
$BTC $ETH $SAND #SAND #Sandbox #TopGainers #Metaverse #KoreanExchange #USSeptemberNonFarmPayrollsOnlyUp29KUnemploymentRateRisesTo4.2% #BTCETHSpotETFsSimultaneousOutflowsFundsCooling #USIranTensionsContinueG7ToReleaseUpTo100MillionBarrelsReserve #RiskWarning
The above does not constitute investment advice; manage your positions, the market carries risks. $BTC Late longs entered, price rolled over below their entry and they got flushed out.
Exactly the scenario I mentioned was on the cards if we'd start trading below that $85.5K-$86K zone.
Most of those positions have now been washed out.#G7OilReserveRelease I couldn't sleep at night and saw this report about $BTC
In September, long-dormant Bitcoin addresses transferred out 5419.45 BTC, valued at approximately 457 million USD, involving 94 transactions. The amount transferred out was lower than August's 6427.59 BTC but higher than July's; wallets created in 2016 transferred out 1556.53 BTC across 13 transactions.
Wallets created in 2013 transferred out about 888.91 BTC, spread over 26 transactions. Additionally, about 57 transfers involved Bitcoin dormant for 12 to 16 years; the highest transfer volume was on September 6, reaching 1620.39 BTC.
What does this mean? It indicates that some very early holders in the market have started moving their chips again. The reactivation of old coins itself is a market signal worth caution. Whether these old coins are active in recent months with selling intentions is uncertain; transfers out do not equal sales, but it does give a sense of potential selling pressure. If a large amount of old coins continue to be transferred into exchanges and BTC prices show a spike followed by a pullback, then be cautious of old chips cashing out. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 On Friday, the Nasdaq hit a new high again, and Nvidia simultaneously set a historic record. Many people have been waiting for the US stock market to crash for years, but the index and leading stocks keep hitting new highs.
I want to ask everyone: when overseas core assets continue to rally, do you still insist on the view that the US stock bubble is about to burst? In the face of the trend, should we wait for a crash or align ourselves with the strong?
Also, to friends holding A-shares, do you still hope for the market to open after the holiday? Just asking if you’re feeling panic yet 📊 Short-term Market Analysis (15 minutes - 1 hour): Extremely low volume, brewing for a breakout
· Price Performance: After a sharp drop from 87,239 to 83,826 in the previous phase, the market has entered a "dead time," with the current price hovering quietly around 84,800.
· Technical Patterns:
· 15-minute level: Moving averages (MA5/10/20/30) are all tightly clustered near 84,800. Bollinger Bands are extremely narrow (upper band 84,861, lower band 84,742). MACD is almost flat near the zero line (DIF 44.1, DEA 47.9). This pattern is a classic calm before the storm, with a breakout possible at any moment.
· 1-hour level: MACD forms a golden cross below the zero line (red bar 95.8), indicating bearish momentum exhaustion and a technical rebound demand. However, due to extremely low volume (only 1.7 BTC), the rebound strength is weak, with resistance at the 85,000-85,200 range.
· Short-term Key Levels: Support at 83,800, resistance at 85,200.
📉 Mid-term Trend (4 hours - 1 day): High-level pullback stabilizing, moving averages intertwined
· 4-hour level: Price is enclosed by various moving averages (MA5: 84,693, MA10: 84,995, MA20: 84,562), MACD shows a death cross but the green bar is shortening (-62.3). The "double top" resistance at previous high 87,374 remains, representing a correction phase after a sharp rise and fall.
· Daily level:
· The daily chart shows a low-volume doji star, with bullish moving average alignment (MA5, MA10, MA20) still intact. Strong support lies at the daily MA20 (82,730) and the middle Bollinger Band.
· Daily MACD death cross is diverging downward (DIF 1887.3, DEA 2021.9, green bar -269.2), indicating the daily-level correction is not yet complete and requires time to regain space.
🚀 Long-term Trend: Mid-stage consolidation in a bull market
· VanEck clearly states "Bitcoin is in the early stage of a bull market, with long-term targets aligned with gold," setting the tone for the long-term trend.
· However, short-term bearish disturbances exist (Fig. 2: Bitdeer sold 292.3 BTC this week; Fig. 1: stablecoin market cap shrank, liquidity weakened).
· Overall, the long-term trend remains a bull market dominated by bulls. The current weakness is a normal wide-range consolidation after a failed rally. 87,400 is a strong mid-term resistance, and 82,400-83,000 is strong mid-term support.
💡 Comprehensive Trading Suggestions
· Spot Traders: The long-term outlook is bullish; hold your base positions. If the price dips to 82,500 - 83,000 (near daily MA20), it is an excellent opportunity to add or replenish positions. The current 84,800 level is a middle ground; large purchases are not recommended.
· Futures Traders:
· Avoid heavy positions: Due to the extreme narrowing of Bollinger Bands on 15-minute and 1-hour charts, a large volatility event (spike or one-sided move) is imminent, with high risk of simultaneous long and short liquidations.
· Right-side trading: Patiently wait for a breakout. A volume breakout above 85,200 allows light long positions (target 86,000); a valid breakdown below 83,800 allows light short positions (target 82,500).
· Strict stop-loss: Leverage is recommended to be controlled within 5x, with wider stop-loss space to guard against malicious spikes during late-night liquidity droughts. I'm not positioning during the weekend, but I'm already looking at scenario's on Bitcoin for next week. This drop to the downside left two big gaps, so orders probably need to be filled there before a potential bigger drop. So if we test the 85.7K-86.7K region before testing 82K, I'm definitely looking for short triggers. 82K is still a valid POI for intraday/swing long opportunities. Especially since we're now engineering more and more liquidity beneath the 82.5K lows. Time to reset this weekenMade a box of profit on oil, is there still a chance to add to my short position at 1900? Storage, which has been soaring since February this year, is undergoing a major correction. Even with Micron's earnings report out, it didn't rally, indicating no big money is entering the market. Everyone is afraid of a high price; just one piece of news could push it back below 1000. I've only entered a starter position. I believe the storage correction in Q4 will be significant, and I plan to take a big hit on it.This load-bearing column has already settled down by a full three centimeters, yet those who don't understand engineering are still shouting to cap the top!
Just came down from a twenty-meter-high scaffold, the cement dust on my gloves hasn't even been wiped off, I took out my phone to check my position, and I was stunned right under the tower crane. An 823% profit rate slammed onto the screen like a steel stamp. I rubbed my eyes three times, thinking the reflection from the safety helmet had dazzled me. In my life working on construction sites moving bricks and mixing mortar, I've never seen such a pouring speed.
After the joy, cold sweat covered my back. Those who work in construction know best: if the building rises too steeply or the sand-to-gravel ratio is off, a surge often means the foundation hasn't been properly compacted but is forcibly raised. A strong wind could cause the whole thing to collapse at any time. When the trend pushes you to the sky, not even the tower crane can stop it, but if this money isn't converted into real steel and concrete in the bank, it's just a construction blueprint that can become invalid at any moment.
Looking at the current $XRP chart, the price is hovering around 1.49. The lower Bollinger Band near 1.478 provides a fairly solid concrete cushion. The daily RSI is around 49, neither up nor down, like a bare wall just stripped of its formwork—strength barely passable, but the load-bearing index is still uncertain. If the foundation here can be stabilized, there's room to build scaffolding upwards, but if the foundation is pierced, there's a deep pit below.
The entry point must be precise; even half a centimeter off can easily cut the main rebar:
- Target: $XRP 🟢
- Entry: 1.475 - 1.495
- TP1: 1.560
- TP2: 1.620
- SL: 1.435
Once the load-bearing wall cracks beyond the stop-loss line, the entire structure is instantly scrapped.
#CoinMoveAlertThe reason behind DOGE's rebound in September does not lie in DOGE itself, but in stablecoins. New money entering the crypto market follows a fixed path: first converting into USDT or USDC and staying within the exchange, then flowing into risk assets when the opportunity arises. Therefore, changes in stablecoin market capitalization become a leading indicator to observe capital willingness.
September's data confirmed this path. USDT's market cap increased by $2 billion in a single month, $LAB either has one less zero or one more zero, this sideways trading with no clear direction is really boring, stuck for more than half a year, it's simply frustrating, if it doesn't work out just delist it and be done with it.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
At the same October meeting, five sources gave five different numbers.
▪️ October unchanged: CME 71.8%, the other four sources cluster between 81.7% and 85%
▪️ Converted to rate hikes: CME 28.2%, interest rate swap market only gives 17%
▪️ The difference between highest and lowest is 13.2 points, all referring to the same October 28 meeting
▪️ It is neither a survey nor a forecast, but derived from 30-day federal funds futures prices
The disagreement is not about whether to hike rates in October, but about this percentage which is a division — the denominator is the number of days remaining after that meeting.
CME’s ruler measures 30-day federal funds futures, price equals 100 minus the average rate for the month. To read whether there will be a hike, you have to compare the rates for the days after the meeting.
The September meeting was mid-month, leaving half a month after. This time it’s set for the 28th, with 31 days in October, leaving only 3 days after the meeting.
This percentage is used daily to explain Bitcoin’s price moves. Yet it itself has five different answers from five sources.
The fewer days divided, the greater the fluctuation of the same price is magnified. Which ruler do you trust more? Just saw the $TRUMP team transfer out 81.87 million tokens, cashing out 249 million USD. Guess what happened to the coin price? It rose by 0.19%. Damn. A selling pressure of 249 million USD slammed down, yet it didn't hit a new low. My first reaction wasn't "awesome," but a chill down my spine. This market is unusually strong. I've seen this "bad news can't move the price" script before, usually followed by a pump to trap those trying to catch the dip. I really dare not touch $TRUMP, I don't The most impulsive aspect of the market is not the breakdown or breakout, but the stories of "90% win rate" and consecutive take-profits. Kraken public market data shows $BTC around 84.84K, with a 24-hour range of approximately 83.86K–85.24K, and the price remains in the narrow middle range; signals like "early October long win rate" and "$ENA 2–5x" appearing in the window lack sufficient public verification, so I do not treat them as facts.
My personal market observation is: 84K remains a defense level, 85K is a short-term confirmation; between these two boundaries, I would rather miss out than chase. If the close stands above 85K and the pullback does not break below, then consider following the trend; if it breaks below 84K, I will wait for a rebound confirmation first and will not catch a falling knife just because of a "new high imminent" claim.
I pay more attention to whether volume expands and whether the pullback shrinks, rather than the target prices in screenshots. Without verifiable catalysts, I will not include specific opportunities in this round. Will you wait for 85K to be reclaimed, or wait for a rebound after 84K is lost? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.In September, the US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below market expectations. After the data was released, BTC quickly surged to around $87,000, but after pushing up, it was pressed back down. To be clear, the market is not lacking bullish sentiment right now, but the selling pressure above $87,000 is indeed significant.
My current view on Bitcoin $BTC is quite clear: the short-term trend is still somewhat strong, but don’t rush to treat it as a one-sided bull market. The key point going forward is whether the $87,000 level can truly be held above. If it breaks through with volume and the pullback holds steady, I believe there is room for the market to continue moving upward; but if it repeatedly fails to break higher, then it will likely continue to consolidate and grind.
Also, don’t forget the macroeconomic aspect. Employment is clearly cooling down, and if CPI and PCE continue to decline, the Fed’s policy expectations will ease, making the funding environment increasingly favorable for BTC. Combined with continuous ETF inflows, this is the signal I truly value. Whether $87,000 can be broken through and held above are key points to watch going forward 👀 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🔥 The core driving force behind this round of rally: institutional reallocation amid valuation dislocation
This rally is not driven by regulatory policy benefits—the much-anticipated "Clear Act" has yet to make substantial progress. The core logic behind the rally is very straightforward: relative dislocation of asset valuations.
Latest data as of September 28:
Over the past 12 months, the US stock S&P 500 has risen more than 18%, with valuations reaching a high range in recent years, while Bitcoin has cumulatively dropped 26% over the same period. Even after the September rebound, the price is still more than 30% below the all-time high of $126,000 set in 2025;
Institutional investors view Bitcoin as a low-valuation alternative asset to hedge against the risk of overvalued stocks, directly driving rapid capital inflows. In the last week of September, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $2.4 billion, hitting an 11-month high. This year, ETFs have turned from net outflows to net inflows for the first time. Currently, all approved ETFs have cumulative holdings exceeding 1.2 million coins, with BlackRock alone holding over 450,000 coins and continuing to increase its position;
Fidelity's Global Macro Head Jurrien Timmer clearly pointed out that Bitcoin has hovered around the $60,000 support zone for nearly a year, consistent with the historical time pattern of bear market bottoms. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's valuation Z-score relative to gold has shifted from negative to positive, which is a very clear bottom signal in the past three cycles.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC $HYPE $XRP $DOGESisters, 1300 can't hold, the 1200 defense battle has begun.
As mentioned before, the trend of $ZEC has completely reversed. Now it’s a continuous decline with the downtrend expanding.
Why do I dare to keep holding?
Because look at the current contract long-short ratio.
Long positions account for 51.63%, shorts only 48.37%.
What does this data indicate?
It means most retail investors now think the bottom is in and it’s time to buy the dip, but this is actually the biggest trap.
This is also why retail investors keep getting harvested.
Everyone knows altcoins have no bottom.
The manipulators exploit retail investors’ mentality of “it’s dropped so much it should rebound” to repeatedly harvest profits.
You think you’re buying the dip, but you’re actually taking over at mid-slope.
Looking at the trend, ZEC dropped from 1417 straight down to 1270, the 1300 round number didn’t even struggle, it broke through directly.
MA5, MA10, MA20 are all in bearish alignment, MACD is continuously expanding below the zero line.
Every rebound is firmly suppressed by the moving averages, and 1200 below is the next psychological barrier.
My short position has been held since 1656, with a floating profit of 1000%, but I’m in no rush to exit.
Targets are 1200 and 1100 below.
For those wanting to short, don’t rush to chase around 1296 now; wait for a rebound to around 1320 to 1350 to try a light position, set stop loss above 1420, and first target 1200.
No need to go heavy, set take profit properly, the risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
Hold your short positions firmly, don’t get off lightly!
$BTC
$ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by only 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Nonfarm data fell far short of expectations, yet gold and BTC declined instead; the market is playing out a second-layer logic.
Employment data was weak, which theoretically should lower rate hike expectations. The market briefly surged when the data was released, but after the US stock market opened, US Treasury yields rebounded and the trend reversed.
The market no longer trades only on short-term rate cut expectations but instead worries about rising crude oil prices and fiscal deficits causing long-term inflation pressure, pushing up long-term term premiums and suppressing interest-free assets. Going forward, focus can be placed on crude oil, long-term bond yields, and the US dollar.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $UNI is around $9.20, and the tokenization narrative is getting harder to ignore
Recent data shows Uniswap v3 + v4 captured roughly 60% of tokenized-stock DEX volume, with the market expanding rapidly
Now add permissioned pools and new institutional infrastructure being built around Uniswap v4
The interesting part for me isn’t the current hype — it’s whether Uniswap becomes core liquidity infrastructure as more traditional assets move onchain
That’s the next phase I’m watching[Old Leek Observation] $KMNO
Binance Wallet has once again injected real money into Solana DeFi.
This time it's Kamino.
Binance Wallet announced:
Providing a $150,000 reward to Kamino's RockawayX RWA USDC pool.
The event lasts 60 days, and users can participate with a minimum subscription of 100 USDC.
Note that what's really interesting here is not the $150,000.
But rather:
Binance Wallet is directly connecting RWA funds with Solana DeFi.
Kamino itself is a lending and liquidity protocol on Solana.
Now with the addition of RWA yield products, Binance Wallet is also directly providing traffic and yield incentives.
KMNO is currently still around $0.04.
It fell back from around $0.048 a few days ago, and there has been no obvious news-driven pump.
So what I want to focus on more is:
After this event starts, whether Kamino's capital scale and on-chain activity can truly pick up.
If the funds really come in, KMNO will have a second phase story.
Entry: $0.0395–$0.0410
Take profit: $0.043 / $0.046 / $0.050 / $0.055 / $0.062
Stop loss: $0.0375 $STRK surged 11.2%, but I lean bearish, expecting 0.05047 to be reached
$STRK hit CoinGecko trending, surging 11.2% in 24h, current price 0.0486, I’m inclined to short. It jumped from 0.0408 to 0.0505 intraday; the sharper the rise, the more I doubt its follow-through.
Being bearish is not nitpicking. Daily RSI at 62.0 is slightly strong, MACD just formed a death cross above zero line yesterday with expanding red bars, indicating weakening momentum at the peak; funding rate 0.00005 is neutral, long-to-short account ratio 1.182, longs are not leveraged, so the rally lacks ammunition; on the US stock side, Coinbase-related crypto stocks average -1.15%, sentiment hasn’t caught up with the coin price.
Resistance above: 0.05047 (24h high)
Support below: 0.04075 (4h SAR)
The overall market is still in an offensive phase (fear-greed index 67), but STRK has risen 75.86% in 30 days, with a 30-day percentile of 0.912, clearly overextended—if the rebound fails to break 0.05047, that’s a shorting opportunity; breaking below 0.04075 accelerates downside.
At 0.0486 I’ll short directly, cut losses above 0.05047, take profit at 0.04075 on pullback. Going to watch the market, follow me for the next signal.
$STRK $BTC1/4 Cooling employment supports short-term risk appetite, but ETF funds are still diverging, and a comprehensive strengthening of the four coins has not yet been confirmed.
At 20:30 Beijing time on October 2, the US September non-farm payrolls were released: actual increase of 29,000, expected 90,000, previous value revised to 133,000; 61,000 below expectations.
2/4 From September 28 to October 2, net flows of ETFs covered by Farside, amounts in USD:
• BTC: provisional net inflow of 82.9 million.
• ETH: provisional net outflow of 118 million.
• SOL: net inflow of 800,000.
• HYPE: net inflow of 3.4 million.
BTC and ETH on Friday still lack IBIT, ETHA, ETHB data; provisional amounts may be adjusted.
3/4 After data release, the dollar weakened, US stocks rose, but US Treasury yields first fell then rose. The market's reaction to weak employment is not unilaterally dovish.
My judgment: short-term risk appetite improvement may support the four coins; mid-term, BTC needs to verify the sustainability of inflows, ETH needs to observe reversal of redemptions, SOL and HYPE need to be verified in combination with on-chain funds, usage, and revenue. High yields remain a risk.
4/4 Follow-up observation: after ETF data is completed, can funds continue to flow in and resonate with yield declines and enhanced spot buying?
Data query: Beijing time October 4; ETF dates according to source trading days.
$BTC $ETH $SOL I've been watching a data point these past two days:
$BTC exchange 30-day net flow has reached -38,000 coins.
In other words, in the past month, 38,000 more BTC have flowed out of exchanges than flowed in.
But what about the price?
It's still hovering around 84,000.
This is quite annoying.
Based on past experience, this continuous outflow of coins at least indicates that large funds are not frantically depositing coins into exchanges.
What's more interesting is that the total stablecoin supply has now reached $311.9 billion, increasing by about 1% over 30 days.
The subsequent market is likely to continue fluctuating, so vigilance is needed again and again
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $SAND Before going to sleep, I saw this kept not dropping, so I casually bought over ten thousand dollars worth. Woke up in the morning with a full harvest, almost breaking even😭The higher the price rises, the more the smart money shorts
$SAND surged another 20% in just over a dozen hours. The market looks lively, but the backend data tells a different story.
At midnight, the long positions were 543 versus 232 shorts, with longs clearly dominant. After the price pulled up, longs didn’t follow; instead, they quietly withdrew 19 contracts. Meanwhile, the shorts surged by 100 people at once, pushing total positions to 6.68 million U, completely overtaking. The price is rising, but the main force is aggressively adding shorts. This signal couldn’t be clearer—the rally is not seen by the main players as a buying opportunity but as a perfect spot to build short positions and hammer the market.
Retail investors chase the rally, while smart money opens shorts based on position. One watches the candlesticks excitedly, the other watches the chip layout. I’ve rarely seen anyone make big money at the peak, but I’ve seen too many chasing highs and standing guard. So I don’t hesitate on this trade; I keep adding to my short position heavily, siding with smart money, just waiting for the main force to close the net and smash the market.
Of course, position management is position management, risk control is risk control. Smart money can be wrong too, but their win rate and positioning are much better than retail. I look at the odds, not emotions.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Morning Brief: Waiting for BTC to Pull the Trigger
The market looks like a relay race, with BTC still running the first leg. Current price is 84129, up 1.26% intraday, repeatedly knocking on the 85000 level. ETF net inflows have ranked last for 9 consecutive days, PCE leaning dovish brings some warmth, but the 5.6% US Treasury yield still caps the ceiling. Whether it breaks or not depends on volume: high volume pushes upward, breaking the upper boundary of the range; low volume means continued consolidation. If it doesn't move, the whole market struggles to rally.
ETH is the quietest at 2682, moving sideways. ETF flows have shifted from inflows to outflows, with institutional preference clearly tilting towards BTC; rising staking rates indicate long-term holders haven't left, but short-term bleeding makes 2700 a tough resistance and 2650 a defense line.
SOL is at 119.35, up 0.94%, hovering around the 120 threshold for two days. NFT and DeFi recovery along with improved ETF inflows provide a positive backdrop, but what's missing is BTC's starting signal. If BTC breaks through, SOL is expected to catch up, with 128 in sight after stabilizing above 120.
OKB at 121.29, up 1.07%, is the most stable among platform tokens, supported by lock-ups, buybacks, and overseas stablecoin plans. RE at 0.49028 slightly up, with 0.45 as the floor, thin market cap but resilient.
In short: BTC must pull the trigger first before the smaller players dare to charge. Today, watch the volume, not the sentiment. [Old Leek Observation]
Binance Wallet has injected real money into the TRON ecosystem today.
TRONCarnival Season 3 officially launched:
$2 million worth of rewards. The event starts on October 4 and runs until December 3.
The main participants are the $TRX, $JST, $SUN, and USDD pools on JustLend.
The really interesting part of this is not how big the $2 million is.
But rather:
Binance Wallet is directly driving traffic to TRON DeFi.
TRX is still around $0.336, barely moving in the past few days.
If the funds brought by the event start to increase significantly later, the first things worth watching are not the promotions, but:
Whether JustLend's TVL, TRX on-chain activity, and TRX trading volume rise together.
This current position is much more comfortable than chasing coins that have already been pumped.
Entry: $0.332–$0.337
Take profit: $0.345 / $0.355 / $0.368 / $0.382 / $0.400
Stop loss: $0.324 🔥 Maji pushed the longs back down to 152 million, but the really interesting part isn't this number.
The market adjusted today, and he first cut some BTC, ETH, and HYPE, losing about $190,000 in a single trade, then gradually started to buy back.
Later, he even added about 60 more BTC.
Currently, the total long exposure is about 152.7 million USD:
About 26.7 million in BTC, ETH directly accounts for about 103.8 million, HYPE about 16.3 million, and PUMP about 5.9 million.
The structure is actually very clear:
BTC + ETH are the base positions, HYPE + PUMP add flexibility.
But don’t interpret “daring to hold heavy positions” as “guaranteed profit.”
Margin usage is about 85% now, unrealized drawdown is about 1.3 million USD, and leverage and position size will also amplify losses.
So what’s really worth watching is not how bold he is, but what happens next:
Will he keep buying on the dip, or start withdrawing when it rises?
What the whale does is his business; for ordinary people, the most important thing is not to turn themselves into liquidity.
$ETH $BTC $HYPE $PUMP
The above is just personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice. The setup looks different now
$SOL is around $119, sitting just below the $123–$125 resistance zone after cooling from the recent push higher
For me, $116–$118 is the first area to watch on a pullback
Lose that zone and $113 comes into focus, with $105–$104 as the deeper support area
But reclaim $125 cleanly and the whole short-term structure changes
I’m waiting for the level to confirm before forcing a trade$PUMP altcoins really don't even bother to pretend anymore; after killing the bulls, they immediately turn around and kill the shortsSeptember's jobs miss (29K vs 90K expected, unemployment to 4.2%) is still driving crypto. $BTC jumped from $83K to $87,250 as October hike odds crashed from ~73% to 25%, Fed-pause bets now at 85%. October's historically Bitcoin's strongest month, and this report supercharged that tailwind. But one strategist's warning stands: weak data isn't automatically bullish — a real growth scare could still drag risk assets down with it.
#USNFPDataCools