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The US-Iran situation remains tense, and the world has begun releasing strategic oil reserves.
US-Iran situation → Oil prices → Inflation → Federal Reserve policy → Global liquidity.
If the reserve release can lower oil prices:
Oil prices fall
→ Inflation pressure eases
→ Federal Reserve policy pressure lessens
→ Liquidity expectations improve
→ BTC and ETH might actually benefit.
But if the situation escalates further and oil prices surge again, the logic reverses:
Oil prices rise
→ Inflation concerns heat up
→ Rate cut expectations are suppressed
→ US Treasury yields may rise
→ Risk assets come under pressure.
Whether oil prices can continue to decline and whether the Fed's rate cut expectations are affected.
In the short term, BTC's resilience may be stronger than ETH's.
But if macro pressures ease later and funds start flowing back into high-risk assets, ETH might also see a catch-up rally. $BTC $ETH #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Do you know how far the US government shutdown has gone? The SEC has directly entered a funding interruption, employees aren't getting paid, so who is going to review your ETF applications? Over ninety crypto ETF applications are lined up and all frozen. Litecoin, SOL, XRP are all waiting in line. It's not a rejection, nor an approval, just four words: nobody is processing them. My first reaction when I saw this was not panic, but laughter. The coin issuers are anxious, the market makers are anxToday's battle report:
📉 $BTC Long/100x: Opened at 84772 → Closed at 84797, fully closed 0.7371 coins, loss of -37.89U (-6.06%).
📈 $MINA Short/20x: Opened at 0.16871 → Closed at 0.16841, fully closed 11582 coins, profit of +1.73U (+1.77%).
BTC 100x leverage is too brutal, small coins with 20x leverage are steadier. Overall slight loss, being alive is what mattersTomorrow's mainnet upgrade combined with staking incentives, STRK surges 30.87% in a single day, reaching $0.05604
STRK on OKX surged 30.87% in one day, touching $0.05604. If you hold a position, watch the turnover at $0.05604 today. Starknet officially plans to deploy the v0.14.4 mainnet upgrade tomorrow, October 5, mainly expanding the single-block proof capacity to 1.1 billion L2 gas. Additionally, in the past two days, cross-chain bridge fee subsidies and staking dividends have been introduced for strkBTC, pushing the spot buying demand and driving the price up. However, on October 15, 127 million STRK tokens will be unlocked, so next week we need to pay attention to how this portion of the supply flows out.
I just checked the order book in the OKX contract area. The STRK-USDT perpetual funding rate is around 0.0048%, with bulls not borrowing much to chase the price higher. The 24-hour spot trading volume reached 22.57 million USDT, with a single-day increase of 30.87%. The total altcoin contract open interest across the platform is $3.176 billion, with the altcoin-to-BTC open interest ratio at 1.064, and the fear and greed index stuck at 65, indicating the market's overall capital is relatively restrained.
This afternoon, I added STRK-USDT perpetual contracts to my watchlist. I continue to keep spot holdings in OKX Simple Earn to earn flexible income. After a 30.87% single-day surge, chasing contract longs now is not cost-effective.Big Brother Maji's move this time is really decisive, PUMP was directly liquidated in one go, with the total position steady at 146 million USD. Marginal positions were cut, scattered funds all pulled back, clearly holding back for a new move. Let's take a look at Big Brother's latest position data:
BTC: 378 coins, average price 84,700, floating profit 152,900. The liquidation price dropped sharply to 65,200, the defense line is much more stable; recently, he has been repeatedly selling high and buying low at this level, the rhythm is quite precise.
ETH: 36,000 coins, average price 2,688, floating profit back to 610,000. But burning 1.23 million in daily funding fees, liquidation price pressed down to 2,495. Although profits remain, defensive pressure is still huge, relying entirely on a strong foundation from earlier.
HYPE: position reduced to 174,000 coins, average price 89.72, currently a slight profit of 65,200. Liquidation price dropped to 45, risk released very cleanly.
After clearing PUMP, Big Brother's 146 million portfolio basically consists of the three cores: BTC, ETH, and HYPE. Cutting marginal positions cleanly shows he doesn't want to diversify funds now, planning to focus on defending mainstream coins. With the current market grinding back and forth, better to keep your bullets ready first, and wait for the direction to become clear before making a move.
$ETH $HYPE $BTC $ETH: opened at 1926.4, current price 1856.04, full position 20X short for next quarter, floating profit 365U, ROI 54%. Below 1900, continue to watch 1800.
$BTC: opened at 64349.7, current price 63089.34, full position 20X short, floating profit 206U, ROI 40%. Below 64000, continue to watch 62000.
$LAB: opened at 0.1352, current price 0.1363, isolated margin 20X long, floating profit 54U, ROI 17%. Steadily rising, continue to watch 0.14.Clarity in the sideways market
$BTC stalled at 84600, $ETH hanging at 2678, the 15-minute chart as thin as a sheet of paper. The order book is sparse, a few small orders can poke out long wicks. The rise is hollow, the fall is fast, yet funds refuse to enter.
The inflow heat of BTC has ebbed, ETH is even stranger: no increase in volume, yet someone is forcibly pulling. Without volume to support, the direction is mostly an illusion. SOL remains a shadow; when BTC is up, it follows, when BTC is down, it falls even harder; today it’s too lazy to even act.
Watching the market makes me yawn, only then do I understand that being out of position is also a position. I still hold my position but no longer mistake stubborn holding for bravery. May every trader have less obsession and more patience. When the market doesn’t move, staying still is a skill.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Good Morning fam
Day 39 of my 500U compounding journey. Total assets are now around 3,000U.
$ETH is moving quietly this weekend, but the low volume is what caught my attention.
Trading volume has dropped to around $1.5B one of the lowest levels I’ve seen during this journey.
Low volume + compressed price action usually means the market is waiting for a catalyst.
I’m already heavily positioned, so no chasing here. Just watching how the next few days unfold.
Let the market decide. The most easily misinterpreted negative news in the crypto world next week: two central bank minutes
Next Thursday, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will successively release the minutes of their September meetings. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 basis points last month. The most important thing to watch is not the rate hikes that have already happened, but whether officials discussed continuing to raise rates.
These two sets of minutes are "old business." After the meetings, the U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, clearly weakening the case for further rate hikes.
If the minutes lean hawkish, BTC may first pull back, with a key level to watch around 85,000 to see if it can hold. If the market finds that officials are not firmly committed to continuing rate hikes, and BTC reclaims 85,000, there is a chance to test 87,000 again. ETH is still watching 2,700; if it holds, then talk about a catch-up rally, but if it breaks, don’t rush to buy.
Next week is not about how scary the central banks sound, but whether the "old meetings" can beat the "new data."
The central banks are responsible for reviewing old business, and the crypto world pays the tuition.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 PUMP rose about 16%, but the funding rate turned negative, and the price is still less than 3% away from the 24-hour high.
As of 16:36 Beijing time, OKEx spot is about $0.006394, with a 24-hour high of $0.006589 and a low of $0.005422, a volatility of about 21.5%; trading volume is about $13.1 million.
OKEx data shows the nominal value of perpetual open interest is about $46.16 million, the current funding rate is about -0.0024%, and the perpetual price is basically in line with the spot price. When the price strengthens, contract longs do not show obvious payment heating, indicating that contrarian positions are still present.
My judgment is that this round of rise still has conditions for position squeeze, but the negative funding rate cannot be directly taken as a guarantee for continued rise. The easiest misjudgment is chasing the price when it approaches the high; if the breakout fails, high-leverage positions will also amplify the pullback.
Next, pay attention to $0.006589 and $0.005777. If the previous high is broken through, the funding rate remains negative, and positions are maintained, the squeeze risk may continue to rise; if it falls below the latter and positions remain high, the risk will shift to concentrated liquidation.
$PUMP There's not much to say about this market. $ETH broke through 2700 from 2530, and the 2700-2800 range was basically all short squeeze stop-loss buy-ins to close shorts, further pushing the price up to 2800.
The day before yesterday's non-farm data showed only a 1.11 amplitude, with a high of 2777.83 and a low of 2648; 2700 still couldn't hold. $BTC is recommended to short on rallies, and try to avoid bottom-fishing longs.I am the Midline Intelligence Brother.
Today's position daily report shows $BTC, with 57% of the market bullish, sentiment leaning positive.
Core Signal One: BlackRock IBIT bought $1.57 billion worth of BTC in one month, with total holdings exceeding 800,000 coins. The US spot ETF had a net inflow of about $82.9 million this week, clearly indicating capital replenishment.
Core Signal Two: Whales accumulated 75,000 BTC over 30 days, with over 40,000 coins transferred out from exchanges, continuously tightening the supply. Bitwise reports sovereign funds selling gold to buy BTC, accelerating institutional adoption.
Core Signal Three: Citi raised its 12-month target from 82,000 to 113,000.
I believe the BTC supply-demand structure is tight, and the pullback is a window to add positions. #DailyOrbit $PROS This daily chart of PROS is giving me goosebumps
From 0.36 straight up to 0.83, without any decent pullback, this isn’t a candlestick chart, it’s a deadly hook drawn by a manipulator
Also, the amplitude up and down is terrifying, which is normal for a new coin with a small market cap and only about 5 million in trading volume; the manipulator can easily trigger a long-short squeeze with just one spike.
Looking at the indicators, RSI6 has already soared to 82.98, seriously overbought
Although CVD shows capital inflow, this is most likely a trap to blow out shorts while attracting retail investors to catch the falling knife
At this position now, rushing in is just suicide $PUMP is trading around $0.0066, up roughly 18% in 24H and nearly 40% over the past week. The 4H momentum is extremely stretched, with RSI deep in the overbought zone. On the surface, a short looks tempting. But I’m staying patient. 👇 1️⃣ Spot demand is still backing the move Recent spot activity continues to show stronger buying interest than selling. Pump.fun also directs a portion of protocol revenue toward token buybacks and burns, creating genuine demand instead of relying purely on hype. Non-farm employment data cooled off, only 29,000, below expectations.
After the non-farm employment data was released, $BTC $ETH $ZEC, gold, and silver all rose, but then retreated over the weekend.
Currently, the market is fluctuating widely; direction will only be clear after the CPI data on the 14th.
Buy in batches on dips and control your position size.
Optimistic about Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as the gold and silver markets, over the next six months.Early Wednesday next week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the September rate hike meeting. The problem is, the non-farm payrolls have already rewritten the script.
In September, the rate was raised by 25 basis points unanimously, and the dot plot hinted at another hike within the year. However, non-farm payrolls only increased by 29,000, and the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from about 70% to just over 20%. The minutes recorded the hawks at the time, but the market is trading on the current doves.
$BTC is now around 85,000. Holding 84,000, with daily closing above 86,500 to 88,000, the next target is 90,000. If it stays stuck between 84,000 and 86,500, it will just surge once and then be pushed back. If the daily falls below 82,000, it will revisit 80,000, and deeper down is 78,000.
$ETH is now around 2,700. Holding 2,650, with daily closing above 2,800, there is potential to reach 3,000. If it can't break 2,750, it remains in a range. If it falls below 2,600, the next target is 2,500. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Good morning! Just finished reviewing the weekend data, let's take a look at the crypto market trends over the past couple of days.
First, about $BTC: in the past 24 hours, there was a net inflow of 2,563 coins, a surge of 190% compared to before. This number is quite telling—it indicates that big money is quietly entering the market, not just retail investors messing around.
But despite the inflow, the bulls and bears are still quietly battling it out, and no one dares to make the first move.
BTC is currently priced at $84,700, very close to the long liquidation line at $83,200 below. A slight drop could easily trigger a chain of liquidations.
On the $ETH side, currently at $2,685, the situation is reversed. There’s a heavy short position resistance around $2,799 above, so if it pushes up, the shorts will suffer.
Interestingly, although tensions are high on both sides,
the actual liquidation amount for BTC in the past 24 hours was only $3.67 million, involving just over 500 accounts, with liquidation data plummeting 98% compared to before.
What does this mean?
It means everyone has gotten smarter, leverage has been reduced significantly, and no one is willing to gamble their life at this level.
This kind of low-volume tug-of-war often signals that the market is brewing the next directional move. #DailyOrbit A big rise doesn't mean someone is buying
$WLD rose nearly 8% in one day, $SUI rose 60% in one month.
It looks lively, but not a single resistance level has been passed.
The ones rising fiercely have the emptiest foundations:
$HYPE is stuck below 94, which was the starting point of the last drop.
If it can't break through, it will always be a ceiling.
If it can't hold, it will have to go back:
$SUI needs to first stand above 1.20, $WLD needs to treat 0.51 as the floor.
Now all three are below resistance levels, this is called a rebound.
The difference between a rebound and a reversal is just a dollar or two.
$BTC $ETH spot funds are flowing out.
Altcoins want to break out of the trend themselves, but the probability is low.
Wait until one of these three truly breaks through, then talk about other things.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 $WLD $SUI influencer coins, AI concepts—they rise fast and fade even faster. How many can last thirteen years? Longevity is the greatest fundamental.
Being 11th in market cap is not because of a wave of retail investors pushing it up; it's passed down from generation to generation. With a market cap of $14.7 billion, behind it are countless people who recognize it, use it, and hold it. This kind of consensus can't be created by hype. The Clarity Act legislation failed, and the CFTC and SEC are still competing for jurisdiction, so regulation won't be clear in the short term. But Q3 on-chain total fees surged to $3.3 billion, with applications generating $1.44 billion in revenue in September alone, driven by Solana and Robinhood, reviving the fee-sharing model. Bitcoin touched back to 87,000 on expectations of weak nonfarm payrolls and relaxed custody rules, then retreated; the greed index is 65, sentiment is overheated but capital is starting to be selective.
Just replaced a voice-controlled light in corridor 3, stood on a stool and twisted it overhead for a long time.
GLMR current price is 0.01216, just above the 0.618 Fibonacci support at 0.01168, retesting it. Bullish momentum is clearly weakening, with active sell orders pressing buy orders. The liquidation map shows a thick pile of short positions above and thin long liquidity below, indicating the main force intends to induce shorts downward to sweep liquidity. Technically, it's in a corrective consolidation phase, with a defense level at 0.0116; breaking this will accelerate the decline. This is a high-risk profit-taking phase, so don't chase longs.
Operationally, buy on dips without blindly chasing. Enter between 0.0117 and 0.0119 in batches, with the first take-profit target at 0.0132 and the second at 0.0145. Defense point at 0.0116; stop loss immediately if broken, no holding through losses. Control position size well and wait for a liquidity sweep to enter more safely.
$GLMR
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
@OKX星球 $PUMP $BTC $ETH
PUMP surged with a wick and then pulled back, short positions floating profit reached 48%
On the 15-minute chart, PUMP surged to a high of 0.006601, after which the bullish momentum quickly faded and the price fell back. The current price is 0.006394, having broken below the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages. MACD has turned green, KDJ is at a low level, and the short-term bullish momentum has paused.
Position: Short PUMP, opening average price 0.006453, current floating profit 48.03%. The resistance above at 0.006601 is a strong short-term level; if this high is broken again, the bearish outlook will be invalidated. Support below is at 0.005993; if broken, the correction space will further open.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 At this stage, it feels more like a shakeout rather than chasing the rally. Have you noticed the gap between the hype and the actual support? Over the past couple of days, I've been reviewing sector strength and weakness, and the difference is quite obvious. On the surface, names like BTC, ETH, SOL, ZEC, and UNI are still being repeatedly mentioned, and the discussion heat hasn't died down, but the market sentiment feels quite different. The rallies are disjointed, while the drops are sharp and decisive, indicating that short-term funds are still active, but those willing to buy on the way up have become cautious. With non-farm payrolls increasing by only 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, such data would normally suggest easing, yet BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, and the enthusiasm has actually cooled off. This combination is quite subtle—not a lack of money, but money unwilling to stay in one place for too long. My own understanding is that the market is currently trading not direction, but rhythm. Sector strength and weakness are starting to diverge: BTC and ETH act more like ballast stones—people slowly pick them up when they fall, but are not in a hurry when they bounce; SOL and UNI, which are more ecosystem and narrative-driven, tend to be sold off quickly when sentiment cools; ZEC occasionally strengthens independently, more like local funds seeking a safe haven, which doesn't indicate a return of overall risk appetite. The difficulty with altcoins is that people are willing to watch but reluctant to hold heavy positions. There is also a bullish path. As long as BTC holds the key range and ETH doesn't continue to drag behind, and ETF outflows slow down, funds will first return to the most certain places before gradually permeating into the sectors. This process won't be fast, but once it starts, the strength and weakness will be reordered. The risk lies in if the outflows continue, non-farm payrolls bringThe largest group of people in this market cycle is called "waiting for a pullback."
$SOL has been rising all the way, and this group's slogan has never stopped—shouting when it goes up, shouting when it moves sideways, as if a pullback is a debt the market owes and must be repaid sooner or later. But when one day the market suddenly drops and the bearish candle appears, those who shouted the loudest before are all silent. #VanEck: Bitcoin May Continue to Expand Market Share
VanEck: Bitcoin may continue to expand market share, quantum risk is not a concern
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, recently stated that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a bull market and may continue to increase its market share in investment portfolios. He views Bitcoin reaching half the market size of gold (about $500,000) as a medium-term target, and if it takes a significant share in global energy trade in the long term, the price could reach $3 million by 2050.
There are two supporting logics. First, the AI industry boom gives new value to long-term power contracts held by Bitcoin miners—some miners have signed 10 to 20-year power agreements with investment-grade counterparties, and this "option" value is independent of BTC price. Second, institutional funds continue to flow in through spot ETFs; IBIT attracted about $2.7 billion in net inflows in recent weeks, while gold ETF GLD saw about $1.4 billion inflows in the same period.
Regarding quantum computing risk, Sigel clearly stated that it is a long-term issue to watch but currently not a reason to sell BTC.
BTC current price is about 85,000, resistance above at 87,000, support below at 84,000. Stop loss positions below 83,500; wait for a pullback to 84,000-84,500 to stabilize before entering, do not chase highs. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Although $STRK experienced an impressive breakout to a peak of $0.0556, buying volume on the 15m chart is visibly tapering off.
Rather than stepping in front of the train to short, the safer strategy remains Trend Following via Longs once price completes a proper pullback into solid support.
– Entry: $0.0485 - $0.0495
– Stop Loss: $0.0470
– Targets: $0.0525 | $0.0556 | $0.0600+
💡 De-risk by taking partial profits at TP1 and moving SL to breakeven to aim for higher targets.Yesterday on $SAND, I originally wanted to play a high-leverage short-term trade. At first, I maxed out 75x leverage with a position capped at $5,000. Later, it was adjusted down to 50x, then 40x, then 30x. I was busy for over 20 hours without sleep. Before going to bed, I forgot to close the position. The settlement fee is charged hourly there. When I woke up, I saw an unrealized loss of over $8,000 and paid about $1,000–$2,000 in fees.$NEAR
After the rebound, why is the next low point more critical?
The 24-hour range observed today is 4.607–4.905, with a window change of about +1.95% and a trading volume of approximately 15.75 million USDT.
The window yield is positive but has not broken through the upper boundary; the first rebound only proves the presence of buyers. Whether the next pullback can hold a higher low will better test the continuity of demand.
If the price subsequently surpasses 4.905, holds on the pullback with volume support, I will raise my judgment on continuation; if it breaks below 4.607 and the rebound fails to recover, I will lower my judgment. The above boundaries come from this observation window and need to be rechecked after market changes.💰 Stablecoins: The Next Real Crypto Infrastructure?
Stablecoins are evolving from "trading tools" into payment and settlement infrastructure.
The hot narratives of 2026 are no longer just MEME and AI; practical application tracks like Stablecoins, RWA, Perp DEX, and others continue to attract attention.
The truly valuable question in the future might not be: "Which coin will rise the fastest?"
But rather: Who can make on-chain capital flow faster, cheaper, and more compliant?
#Stablecoin #RWA #Crypto On the evening of October 1st, both US stocks and gold fell, while Binance spot saw consecutive market buy orders of about 400 BTC, keeping the price above 84,000; in the early hours of the 3rd, about 1,400 BTC sell pressure came again, creating a long lower shadow but still holding. The dense on-chain chip area is also here, able to absorb it.
Even with 1,400 BTC dumped, it couldn't break through; analysts who keep shouting about seeing 70,000 every day might need to change their tune. Chips don't lie, mouths do.😇
$BTC $ETHYesterday on $SAND, I originally wanted to play a high-leverage short-term trade. At first, I maxed out 75x leverage with a position capped at $5,000. Later, it was adjusted down to 50x, then 40x, then 30x. I was busy for over 20 hours without sleep. Before going to bed, I forgot to close the position. The settlement fee is charged hourly there. When I woke up, I saw an unrealized loss of over $8,000 and paid about $1,000–$2,000 in fees.🔥 BTC, ETH, and SOL are all in the crypto race, but their valuation logics are worlds apart!
🟠 $BTC is the ballast stone. The core focus is on consensus depth and institutional capital. ETF inflows, whale holdings, and halving cycles determine the long-term trend. Without capital relay, even the best narratives are hard to sustain.
🔵 $ETH can't be judged by candlesticks alone. On-chain real usage is key: Gas consumption, staking ratio, L2 activity, stablecoin scale. Only with ecosystem expansion does value have a foundation.
🟣 $SOL is a growth stock. User count, transaction volume, DApp ecosystem, TVL must keep growing to support a high valuation. Once growth stalls and sentiment recedes, the price will revert.
🟢 The same market, three frameworks: BTC looks at capital and consensus, ETH looks at ecosystem and usage, SOL looks at growth and activity.
🟡 Price is just the result; capital flow and real activity are the causes. Understanding the drivers is more important than just watching the market.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 "The Storage Trio: Strong Performance, Stock Prices Start to Pick and Choose"
The storage sector's rise is baffling, but it has shifted from broad gains to differentiation. AI is the main driver, with HBM and server DRAM prioritized for capacity, while NAND's growth is relatively unstable. Three companies, three different logics.
Micron: The earnings report is nearly flawless, revenue at 54.2 billion, next quarter guidance at 61.5 billion, gross margin 86%. However, the stock price reaction is muted, as the good news is already priced in. 1050–1070 is the short-term defense line; holding it could test 1100–1110, a breakout would open up space; breaking below looks toward 1020, 1000.
SanDisk: NAND and enterprise SSD have the greatest elasticity, data center up 103% quarter-on-quarter, but consumer side down 32%. 1700 is key; holding it targets 1800, breakout looks at 1880–1910; losing it targets 1650. Highly volatile and cycle-sensitive.
SK Hynix: HBM leader, HBM4 is already in mass production, AI demand is more certain. 1.8 million KRW is the first support, 1.75 million is defense; breaking 1.9 million continues the trend.
Summary: The industry uptrend is not over, but the blind buying phase is past. Next, watch who continues profit growth while stock prices can break previous highs. Good performance is just the first step; whether the price is willing to pay is the real answer. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Woke up and made some money again, today’s not bad, earned a few buns.
Getting ready to apply to join the Air Force.
Last night I saw something on the gainers list that instantly rose 30%, it was $RESOLV. I went long, but when things didn’t look right later, I switched to short,
though it was a small position, just a 4U position. Didn’t expect it to go from up 30% to down 8%, rising from 0.019 then crashing back to 0.019.
Luckily, I hit my take profit, made 15U, which just covered the losses The vote is over. Now the receipts begin.
228M $CRO has actually been burned — taking community-program burns to 428M.
But the bigger change starts after the burn: 100% of Ult + Cronos Launch revenue is now committed to buying CRO on the open market and burning it monthly, with every transaction hash published.
One-off supply cut → recurring market buyer"Unlock Schedule for Next Week: Mostly Routine, One Negative Fully Priced In"
There are quite a few unlocks next week, but most are routine actions; only one is truly worth watching.
$HYPE: 9.92 million tokens unlock on the 6th, accounting for 4.46% of circulation, about $929 million. The volume is not small, but HYPE’s claim rate has always been low, so actual selling pressure is limited and not a big issue.
RAIN: 37.2 billion tokens unlock on the 10th, accounting for 5.2% of circulation, about $445 million. This is a monthly continuous release, a routine matter, and the market has already anticipated it.
$APT: About 2% unlock on the 12th, $48 million. This is a regular monthly release by the foundation and team, with low impact, so no need to overreact.
$ENA: The last batch of 14% VC unlocks lands on the 5th. This is actually a “good unlock” — investor selling pressure bottoms out, negative factors are fully priced in, and things will be easier afterward.
Summary: HYPE, RAIN, and APT are all routine; don’t scare yourself. The real highlight is ENA; after the last batch of VC releases, selling pressure clears, which could be a turning signal. Watch for volatility before and after the unlocks; avoid chasing highs or panicking sell.
For information purposes only, not investment advice. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC Big coin at 84564, same as before, MACD death cross with very small green bars, KDJ J value at 27.6, RSI 50, still hovering above 84000.
$QUANT at 268.9, up more than 8 points, pulled from 223 to 269, MACD golden cross with widening gap, KDJ J value 103 overbought, RSI 81, short-term a bit crazy. This kind of new coin pumps fast, chasing highs is a gamble, just watch.
$SAND at 0.07599, up 22%, pulled from 0.044 to 0.0829, now retracing to 0.076. MACD death cross but bars are small, KDJ J value 40, RSI 37, short-term oversold with rebound demand. SAND is also a new coin speculation wave, high volatility, don’t chase.
Overall, big coin is sideways, QUANT and SAND two new coins are partying hard. This kind of market means the big market is neither dead nor alive, speculators run to pump small coins, chasing highs is easy to get trapped. I’ll keep lying low, holding my positions steady.😴#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH — Bitcoin exchange balances have fallen to their lowest level since 2023, but capital flows have sharply reversed.
According to CryptoQuant, the amount of Bitcoin held by monitored exchanges has decreased to about 2.68 million coins, the lowest level since 2023. This indicates that long-term holders continue to withdraw from exchanges. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs abruptly ended a 9-day streak of net inflows totaling $3.1 billion, turning to a net outflow of $9 million.
Supply is tightening, but short-term funds are fleeing — two conflicting signals appearing simultaneously.
#FedECBMeetingMinutes
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
#BessentTreasuryYields $ATH$ATH
$ATH
/USDT This move is purely based on chart observation. I made a small position around 0.0075. Without fundamental support, it feels more like a manipulative player repeatedly shaking the price at a low level. After the candlesticks show reduced volume, some capital is starting to test the waters. The smart money's traces are more concrete than the sentiment. The risk is straightforward: if it breaks below the previous low, admit the mistake and don't hold the position. On the Yesterday, after I said I opened a short position on $ZEC, several fans asked why:
In short, it boils down to one sentence: success and failure both come from regulation. I think $ZEC is facing a double blow from regulation and valuation.
Regulation is because of the BG hack where 3.9 million ZEC dirty funds entered the privacy pool, but no one can be directly traced on-chain.
Previously, everyone said ZEC found a balance between regulation and privacy, being both private and compliant with regulatory requirements. Now it's getting serious. If it fails this big test, the previously hyped compliance will just be empty promises.
As for valuation, the data speaks for itself: in recent days, $ZEC has seen $60 million outflow from ZCSH, and AUM dropped from a peak of $1 billion to $818 million. This shows institutions are using real money to hedge risks.
Regarding technical analysis, under the big picture of fundamentals, it becomes relatively less important.Putting the ETF data of the three coins together this week is more interesting than looking at the candlestick charts.
Bitcoin, the spot ETF has returned to inflows. The arbitrage funds left a few days ago; one day of leaving is just leaving, but three consecutive days is a retreat. However, it came back in one day, and the spread business continues. Institutions' attitude towards Bitcoin is very clear: this is business, not faith.
Ethereum is still seeing outflows, not stopping for a day. The same batch of money does business with Bitcoin and comes back, but with Ethereum, they don't even want to do business. The biggest bearish factor for Ethereum now is not the price, but that no one is willing to tell its story anymore.
The most unclear is ZEC. The ETF has had outflows for three consecutive days, and the price has dropped from 1695 to 1301. Short-term hot money is indeed withdrawing. But the day after tomorrow, October 6, the NU7 testnet launches, and on November 5, the mainnet upgrade. Money is flowing out, but the story is not finished yet; the two sides are fighting.
I've been following the ZEC line for more than a month, and today is the first time I can't clearly take a side. If I say I'm worried, the upgrade dates are set in black and white. If I say I'm not worried, the three consecutive days of outflows are real money.
Three kinds of money, three attitudes. Bitcoin's money is doing business, Ethereum's money is leaving, and ZEC's money is hesitating. You say the market is weak, but Bitcoin is attracting capital. You say the market is strong, but the other two are being sold off.
So don't look at the price on this market, look at where the money flows. Prices can lie, money cannot.
#DailyOrbit 600u challenge to 1 million U!
Day 201
Starting principal 600U, target 1 million U
Currently: 1800u
Living cost: 1600u
Available funds: 200u+
Today is the 201st day of the challenge, and the available funds have not yet broken through 10,000 USD. I think it will be close to 10,000 U by the end of the year!
The overall strategy remains unchanged: earn more principal through content creation and contracts. The strategy uses a barbell approach, investing in mainstream top assets on one side, and pure silver and $BTC $ETH $ZEC on the other.
Currently holding silver spot, not too worried; contract long positions in Bitcoin and $ETH, recently protocol income has dropped sharply, continuing to observe. Need to control position size well and keep enough ammo for bottom fishing.$BTC $ETH $ZEC Gold and silver are under pressure and falling, with wide fluctuations in the market. The main reason is still the high US Treasury yields; the 10-year US Treasury yield once broke through 5.3%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.6%.
With US Treasury yields so high, funds are rushing to buy bonds for risk-free investment. Who would still be in the high-risk stock market and gold and silver markets?
But the US has $40 trillion in debt outstanding, and high interest expenses are there. The high yields on US Treasuries cannot be sustained and will eventually pull back. That will be the time for gold and silver to reverse. This weekend, I only made one trade. Last week's non-farm payroll market, Bitcoin still hasn't broken the high point, so it's still a difficult mode market.
Meanwhile, ETF funds are still overall in a net inflow state, so I no longer dare to short Bitcoin.
Therefore, I shorted other targets whose patterns better fit a bearish structure, one is SHIB, and the others are ASTER and DOGE.
The main reasons for not shorting Bitcoin are as follows: 1. Bitcoin's ETF funds show net inflow, and last week there was only one day of net outflow. No news is more important than funds. News only affects temporarily; funds affect the underlying logic. 2. Shorting the above two altcoins mainly because recently altcoins have been performing poorly, while Bitcoin is relatively strong. If Bitcoin really breaks through later, it will most likely be a bloodsucking market for Bitcoin, and altcoins will still find it hard to rise. 3. Technically, Bitcoin is still in a strong bullish structure. Unless there is a big bearish candle that changes the current 4-hour bullish structure. #DailyOrbit Besent, that old fox, really knows how to flatter himself. He even says, "The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with global trends, no need to worry excessively."
Translated, this means: The U.S. is now crushed under a mountain of debt, inflation stubbornly refuses to go down, and high interest rates can only be endured.
The 10-year yield broke 5.34%, the 30-year is at a twenty-plus-year high, and even the latest cooling in non-farm payrolls can't bring it down. This is not a global trend; the U.S. is playing with fire.
All I can say is, "It's a cycle; when the economy is strong, a recession follows," which hits the nail on the head.
The current macro situation is a typical late-cycle: high interest rates are draining the real economy, and recession is inevitable.
Once recession is confirmed, the Fed has no choice but to restart the money printing machine. This is the fundamental confidence behind my steadfast holding of BTC and ETH spot.
But in the short term, the elevated U.S. Treasury yields are like a knife hanging over the crypto space, continuously draining liquidity. So the market can only grind repeatedly between 85000 and around 2700.
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 BTC climbed to 85,100 on low volume over the weekend; the worst is the slow grind, better to have a sharp move!
$BTC has been consolidating for two days, reaching 85,000. There are several data points that both bulls and bears need to watch!
First, this rally is not driven by leverage.
The total liquidations across the network in 24 hours were only $50.65 million, with long liquidations at $23.53 million and short liquidations at $27.11 million — this is a very low liquidation volume recently. The funding rate remains at a neutral to slightly negative -0.0013%, with shorts still paying to maintain positions, but leveraged longs are not aggressively accumulating. The price is slowly rising, supported by natural spot buying.
Second, BTC is still flowing out of exchanges.
In the past 7 days, there was a net outflow of 6,762 BTC from exchanges. Coinbase Pro decreased by 2,823 BTC, Binance by 1,922 BTC.
Third, the liquidation pool levels above have shifted.
Now, breaking above $88,458 triggers short liquidation intensity of $1.003 billion; breaking below $80,715 triggers long liquidation intensity of $1.045 billion. Both liquidation pools are at the billion-dollar level, but the price is stuck in the middle. Such low volatility compression historically does not last long.
My view: low-volume consolidation is not directionless; it is waiting for a catalyst. Next week’s FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and CPI (Thursday) are the real moments for directional choice. The SEC just approved the first batch of 3x leveraged crypto ETPs on Friday, slowly opening regulatory channels.
Bears are uncomfortable now, but the real test is yet to come.
$ETH $PUMP 📉 After all green: Which of the four coins holds up best, and which is getting hammered
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
$ZEC 1294, down 5.61%, dropped directly from 1390 to 1294. The 3.6% gain from the day before yesterday was fully given back and then some; privacy coins are not leading the market trend, and they fall fastest when the market dips. 1300 almost broke; if it breaks, look down to 1250. Don't bottom-fish at this level, wait for stabilization.
$BTC 84814, fell back from 86868 to 84800, the one-day gain from the non-farm payrolls was fully given back. ETF has been continuously flowing out; 85000 has turned from support back into resistance. This week watch if 84000 can hold; if it holds, it can push to 87000, if it breaks, back to 82000.
$OKB 120.04, retraced with the market but the drop is not large. High locked staking and continuous buybacks, overseas stablecoin plans are underway, 120 has held for a long time. Still some distance from the previous high of 142; platform coins are more resistant to drops than altcoins.
$RE 0.49315, fell from 0.506 to 0.493. 0.5 held for a month but almost broke today; DeFi insurance and small RWA logic remain unchanged but small coins are all being drained. 0.48 is the bottom line; if it breaks, it means funds are fleeing.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $FIL's surge over the weekend feels off. Around 1.08 looks like a makeshift platform; the more crowded it gets, the easier it is to collapse. I don't believe it can hold steady, so I tried shorting near 1.077 during the rebound, and the market indeed softened afterward. Now the key isn't whether it can reach higher, but how much confidence the bulls still have.
With halving just about ten days away, the story has been told to death and sentiment is already overdrawn. When it actually lands, it's often not fireworks but a payout. Miner sell pressure, profit-taking, and high-entry stop losses—any one of these alone is enough to cause a big shake.
The short-term lifeline below is 0.95. Once it breaks through with a wick, a slow decline mode will likely open up, and most rebounds will be desperate escape waves, not reversals. At that point, shorting with the trend is much easier than chasing shorts now.
My approach is simple: don't be greedy for the lowest point, wait for a rebound to short; follow the breakout with position sizing and stop-losses. This time with $FIL, don't be fooled by the halving filter; the market only recognizes chips and sentiment. When it really falls, those who run slow become the fuel. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 On-chain treasury makes exit rights independent of service providers
The most common risk of prepaid services is not a one-time quote, but the balance being trapped in the operator company's database. When the service stops, the account is frozen, or customer service is unreachable, the "quota" in the user's hands may become just a number that cannot be redeemed. zkAPI puts the balance into an Ethereum contract treasury, designed so that even if all service nodes disappear, users can still close the balance and retrieve assets according to contract terms.
Exit rights are the most significant part of this model. It changes "the platform promises a refund" into "the user holds an executable exit path," reducing ongoing credit dependence on a single company. $ETH here is not just a decorative payment icon but the public layer that carries asset ownership, rule enforcement, and final settlement. As long as the contract and chain remain available, the service frontend does not have the final decision authority.
However, the on-chain treasury also brings new responsibilities: contract vulnerabilities, key loss, upgrade permissions, and emergency pause mechanisms can all affect exit. Users cannot ignore management rights just because assets are recorded on-chain. When evaluating such applications, one should first ask who can modify the contract, who can pause in abnormal situations, how to recover after a pause, and then check if the interface is user-friendly. True self-custody is not a slogan but having a verifiable path even in the worst-case scenario. Don't rush to say "Bitcoin is virtual, just a string of numbers." First, take a look at your own life.
Central bank credit, Sesame Credit Score, WeChat Pay Score? Institutions that haven't signed contracts give you scores.
Mobile banking balance? A string of numbers on someone else's server.
Housing fund, pension? Account records in the system; when and how to withdraw is decided by others.
Mortgage? The legal ledger behind the house.
Airline miles, credit card points? The platform can shrink them by changing the rules.
QR code scanning, face recognition, salary arrival—aren't all of these numbers?
So the key isn't "whether it's numbers or not," but who controls the ledger.
Most ledgers can be frozen, altered, or reset by others.
Bitcoin is different: you hold the private key yourself, and the ledger doesn't belong to any platform.
But in China, it must be made clear: virtual currency is not legal tender, trading and speculation are not protected by law, don't be fooled by get-rich-quick schemes.
It's okay to understand it, but don't go all in.
$BTC To be honest, I myself thought it was risky for this trade to survive until now; luck played a big part. But the short position on $ZEC gave the answer. Yesterday at dawn, the price was suppressed at a high level, every attempt to surge was just short of breath, volume didn't keep up. I shorted around 1,466.86, only indicating obvious resistance above, advising not to rush to buy.
Now at 1,330.80, floating profit +463.6%. This gain feels good.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection, so the rebound doesn't give back the profit. Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking. The market is to be waited out, profits are to be held onto.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. Move when the next signal comes.
$LAB $SOL