#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook
About SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook
The Fed’s September meeting minutes are due at 2:00 pm ET on Oct 7. September’s ISM services PMI eased to 54.9, while its prices index rose to 74.0. The US added just 29,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.2%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has said further hikes depend on whether inflation pressures fade or persist. The minutes may offer clues to officials’ views on inflation, jobs and the rate outlook.
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#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook Fed minutes drop at 2pm ET today and the setup is genuinely mixed 👀
September ISM Services PMI eased to 54.9 — cooler than expected. But the prices index rose to 74.0, which is hot. So activity is slowing but pricing power isn't, which is exactly the kind of confusing signal that divides the FOMC 📊
US payrolls added just 29,000 in September. Unemployment at 4.2%. That's weak enough to justify a pause, but not weak enough to panic about a recession. The Goldilocks zone for "maybe one more hike" 🤔
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly already said further hikes depend on whether inflation pressures fade or persist. Translation: the Committee is genuinely split on whether to move again 🫠
The minutes will show how officials were actually thinking when they hiked last month. Were they hawkish on inflation? Worried about financial conditions? Concerned about the economy slowing? The nuance matters because it decides October odds 📈
Weak jobs, easing services activity, but sticky prices — does the Fed pivot toward a pause, or does one more hike still happen? 👇
BTC Decouples from Tech, Follows Bonds
BTC's 30-day correlation with Nasdaq drops to 0.31 (lowest since March), while correlation with 10Y Treasury yields hits 0.72. Gold breaks $2,750/oz. Institutional desks report "digital gold" allocation mandates increasing Q4. The narrative shift is happening in real time: BTC is not a tech stock anymore. It's a liquidity sponge. When yields rise and equities wobble, BTC's floor comes from macro hedgers rotating out of fiat, not from risk-on degens. This is why $80K held through three consecutiv
Is Bitcoin Heading to $90,000? Mike McGlone and 3 Experts Weigh In
Bitcoin is holding around $86K despite the DXY surging to an 18-month high — a macro move that has analysts paying close attention.
Michael Howell says Bitcoin is one of the most liquid-sensitive assets out there and tends to react more aggressively than gold when liquidity shifts. He notes G7 nations are steadily moving toward "monetizing" sovereign debt through the banking system and bond markets. That doesn't necessarily spell crisis, but it could slowly erode fiat purchasing power over time.
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The calmest screen may be hiding the loudest market.
Crypto volatility is near yearly lows. Stock VIX is subdued. Yet the MOVE index—Wall Street’s “VIX for bonds”—has climbed near 116, its highest since April 2025. Corporate credit volatility has also jumped sharply.
Treasuries price the cost of money. When they shake, risk assets rarely get permanent immunity.
Tomorrow: Fed minutes.
#Fed #Crypto #Markets #Bonds #Volatility
Tomorrow (Wednesday, Oct 7):
1. **FOMC minutes** — 2:00 PM ET, from the Sept 15–16 meeting where the Fed raised 25bp. The week's main macro event. Markets will parse how united the committee was and whether a hike at the Oct 27–28 meeting is still on the table. With the 10-year at 5.28% and Oct-hike odds down to ~23% after the weak payrolls print, any hawkish lean in the minutes would move things.
2. **Samsung Q3 prelim** is Thursday — relevant if you're watching KORU. Consensus expects revenue above ₩200T and operating profit above ₩110T, both quarterly records. Micron's blowout last week set the bar high for the memory cycle.
3. On your watchlist: the **Toshiba/TDK bidding war** with Seagate — no new developments today, but it's still the swing factor for WDC/STX. Also **SpaceX Flight 15** window is now late-October; no firm date yet.
Thursday also has jobless claims (consensus ~200K) and Friday brings U Michigan sentiment.
Many people forget this:
In August 2025, the Federal Reserve published a research note looking at what would happen if the United States revalued its 261.5 million ounces of gold from the absurd statutory price of $42.22 an ounce toward market value.
Funny how things come around.
I will never forget Ron Paul telling me on my show about asking Ben Bernanke why central banks owned gold.
His answer?
“Tradition.”
The Federal Reserve itself is publishing research discussing gold revaluation.
I wonder what Ben thinks about all of this today.
Let’s watch how all of this unfolds…
