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Capital flow is not a crystal ball
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank meeting minutes are about to be released, macro uncertainties remain unresolved, and ETF capital flow is once again in the spotlight. $BTC spot ETFs occasionally see inflows, while $ETH continues to bleed out. Is this a signal of a market shift? Don't rush to conclusions.
ETF subscriptions and redemptions have settlement and disclosure delays, mixed with arbitrage, portfolio adjustments, and tax arrangements, so they are not real-time market indicators. A single day's net outflow is more like phased profit-taking and position rebalancing rather than a collective institutional withdrawal. The market also provides clues: no volume-driven crash, contract funding rates have returned to neutral, and stablecoin supply has not noticeably contracted, indicating that on-exchange funds remain, but the willingness to chase highs has decreased.
From a technical perspective, BTC is repeatedly tugging in a key range, facing resistance near previous highs, with support still holding on pullbacks and no effective breakdown yet, so the bullish structure remains intact. ETH is weaker in correlation but the retracement is controllable; if core support holds, it can still be seen as a shakeout. OKB follows the broader market fluctuations, with support holding nearby and no independent trend emerging yet.
Long-term logic will not be overturned by a single day's subscription and redemption data. What really needs to be tracked is whether net outflows are continuously expanding, whether spot prices break support with volume, whether stablecoins continue to flow out, and whether contracts show extreme short squeezes. If these signals do not resonate together, short-term pullbacks do not equal trend reversals.
Trends are never straight lines; oscillations are a necessary stage on the path upward. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 85000这个数字，最近在我脑子里转了好久。 它到底还能不能撑住？ 先说实话，这几天看盘有一种很微妙的感觉。BTC在85000附近反复被测试，不是那种放量突破的干脆，也不是一泻千里的恐慌，更像是双方都在试探对方的底线。ETH那边2700的短期压力位同样卡得很死，每次靠近就被压回来一点。这两个位置，基本决定了接下来一段时间的节奏。 但真正让我在意的不是价格本身，而是市场在交易什么。 美联储和欧洲央行的会议纪要即将公布，BTC现货ETF重新流入，ETH那边资金却还在持续流出。这几件事放在一起看，其实在讲一个故事：钱没有消失，但它在挑地方待。ETF回流说明有一部分人愿意重新承担风险，但ETH的失血又说明这种意愿并不均匀。贝森特提到美债收益率上升符合全球趋势，这句话听起来平淡，实际上是在提醒大家，无风险收益的吸引力还在，风险资产的竞争压力并没有减轻。 ZEC最近的波动特别大，这种币种最容易让人上头。方向判断在这种时候反而没那么重要，因为波动本身就会把人洗出去。仓位控制比猜对方向更关键，这句话说起来简单，做起来是真的难。 偏多的逻辑在于：如果BTC能稳住85000，ETH能有效突破2700，那说Vitalik's ultimate vision is not to make ETH price go up, but to build a globally neutral "world computer." No company or boss can shut it down, anyone can use it permissionlessly, and it is not subject to censorship by any single entity. $ETH Looking at the 4H chart, $BTC continues to build a gradually higher bottom. The problem is weekend liquidity — it’s thin, and honestly, this isn’t the best environment for aggressive trading. With liquidity this low, even a sharp move doesn't necessarily give whales much room to execute efficiently. My view is that the next 2–3 weeks could lean upward, so I’m more interested in positioning for the bigger move than forcing trades over the weekend. BNB → watching $900+
WLD → yesterday was strong, $COAI $COAI current price 0.3489, up 10.65%. In the AI sector, it has pulled up from the bottom near 0.2, with a spike at 0.73 in between, now in a consolidation recovery phase. RSI 62.36, the momentum is still relatively healthy, EMA7 (0.3247) supports the bottom. Around 0.32 is a good point to lightly buy, stop loss if it breaks below 0.31, first resistance above is the previous high at 0.36.
$PROS current price 0.7986, up 11.33%. New coin with a V-shaped reversal, rising from 0.31 all the way to the current price. But RSI 79.35 is extremely overbought, price completely detached from EMA7 (0.7164). Do not chase this short squeeze rally, take profits in batches if already in, if not yet in, wait for a pullback near 0.71 for consolidation.
$AXS current price 1.3649, surged 13.73%. Old chain game coin resurrected, climbing from the 0.8 bottom up close to the previous high. RSI 75.37 severely overbought. Such vertical rallies are prone to big bearish corrections. Those holding should secure profits quickly, those not holding should watch safely and consider buying on a pullback to 1.21 (EMA7).
Summary: COAI has the most stable pattern and is the best opportunity to buy, PROS and AXS are extremely overbought with huge risks, control your impulses and do not get greedy. Set stop losses properly and find your own entry points.
$COAI $PROS $AXSRecently, pump has really been rising well, so I did some research:
Pump has risen 22% in the past week, while pons has dropped 27.41% in the same period. It's a bit funny because I really don't know what Robinhood's official side is up to—both are protocols, is this some kind of shakeout?
I looked at the data, and pump's daily revenue is now about ten times that of the pons protocol. The coin stock happens on the Robinhood chain, but it really hasn't taken off.
Soon it will be almost like CZ's Binance Smart Chain, just doing things with a start but no finish, still lacking a bit in execution.
Look at CZ big bro BSC's Argus protocol: from September 26, the protocol's daily revenue was $22,000. By October 2, I saw the data showing only $6,000 in revenue. Comparing these is quite funny.
The fact proves pump has no problem rising; now it earns more daily than hype, so why wouldn't it rise? Plus, there's buyback.
I will continue to observe pons' revenue because new things don't keep rising forever; this period needs polishing. Pump also went through this process! Also, it depends on what pons' official next moves are. The official side is also only starting things without finishing, don't let it be a mess like BSC. $PUMP Watching the market obsessively is annoying; turning it off actually made things clearer, and my mind stopped panicking without staring at the screen. Last night before bed, $PEPE kept falling short every time it tried to surge; there was obvious resistance above PEPE, so I signaled a short.
The short position was around 0.000004394, when everyone was still watching and no one wanted to act. Later, the price dropped to 0.000004277, and the short gained +134.27%, nailed it.
I closed 80% first, keeping 20% at cost price as protection; if it continues to drop, let the profits run, but take profits when it's time.
Being out of position isn't a sin; opening random positions is the mistake. I'd rather miss a rally than catch a falling knife and end up bleeding.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in, wait for the next move.
$SOL $BNB BTC and ETH have both retreated back into the consolidation range.
$BTC $ETH Bitcoin at 84,600, Ethereum at 2,678, the 15-minute chart is as tight as a crack in the door. The order book is thin, depth hasn't expanded, small orders can create long shadows. BTC inflows are cooling down, ETH volume and price are conflicted, the rise lacks strength. Without volume support, the upward push is a paper tiger, but a drop down is quite serious. Bitcoin had a very strong Q3.
But strong performance doesn't automatically mean Q4 will repeat it.
That's where people get trapped.
They turn a historical result into an expectation.
I'm more interested in whether the underlying demand continues than whether October gets a catchy nickname like “Uptober.”$XCH Workstation
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In these cases, and possibly others, most hardware running ChiaPoS, madMAx, and BladeBit plotters will also work.A giant whale awakens after 13 years of slumber! 801 $BTC with an unrealized profit of 67 million.
At 17:43 Beijing time today, this address transferred out 43 dollars.
The amount is very small, most likely a "transfer test".
In the crypto world, the awakening of an ancient whale is usually seen as an early signal of potential selling pressure.
Currently, liquidity in the Bitcoin market is already thin. When a whale of this magnitude makes even a slight move, the market has to shake a bit. Even if it's just a test, it indicates that this sleeping lion is ready to open its eyes.
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 NEAR has a change today that I think is worth watching.
The community is discussing lowering the annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6%, and it won't be a one-time adjustment; the plan is to gradually reduce it over 24 months, with a long-term direction even including moving towards a fixed supply. Altcoin Buzz
① The most direct impact on NEAR is that selling pressure will decrease.
Previously, there was an annual increase of 2.5% in tokens, which meant the market needed to continuously absorb new supply.
If it drops to 1.6%, there will be fewer new tokens, and long-term selling pressure will naturally decrease.
The logic is simple: with demand unchanged, the slower the supply growth, the easier it is to support the price.
② This news is more worth watching than a simple "burn."
Many projects like to create hype through one-time burns, but NEAR is discussing a long-term issuance mechanism this time.
If implemented, it would directly change the token's supply curve.
Such changes may not immediately boost the price in the short term, but they will affect how the market values $NEAR later.
③ I won't chase this news directly right now.
It's still at the proposal stage; what really matters is whether the community will approve it and the specific execution timeline.
If it officially goes live, and on-chain activity, AI narratives, and capital flow also return together, I would be more bullish on NEAR.
So my current judgment on NEAR is simple:
This is a medium-term positive, but not a reason to chase the price immediately.
What’s really interesting is if NEAR can cut the issuance rate while also growing on-chain demand, the supply-demand structure will be much healthier than now. $ZEC is holding around the $1,280–$1,300 zone despite the broader bearish sentiment. Whale accumulation, improving ecosystem activity, and strong technical support around the 4H EMA200 near $1,228 could give the bulls another chance.
If $1,280–$1,300 holds, a rebound could squeeze shorts. But losing $1,228 would weaken the setup and could trigger a deeper drop.
Personal market view, not financial advice. Manage risk carefully
#BessentTreasuryYields #FedECBMeetingMinutes #MicronAIMemoryOutlook I've been stuck for nearly two months, am I shameless or what?
These short positions, $BTC, $ETH, $ZEC, each one has trapped me for so long.
When I first opened the shorts, I was full of confidence—how could it not drop from this all-time high?
Later, from floating losses to deep traps, luckily my position size wasn't big, so I'm still alive.
In these two months, I've completely understood one truth: the hardest part of trading isn't predicting the direction, but whether you can still survive with dignity after being wrong.
Now I’m not stubborn anymore, whatever happens, happens.
But I just don’t believe these shorts can trap me forever.
It would be great if a black swan event hits in October.
The above is just my personal venting and does not constitute any investment advice! A couple of days ago, what annoyed me most about $PONS wasn’t the drop.
It was that they kept saying the protocol revenue would be used for buyback and burn, but I never fully understood when the money comes in, when the buy happens, and why sometimes it looks like it stops.
Then Ozzy finally re-explained it yesterday: now the buyback runs automatically, funds are claimed every 7 days, and the next 7 days continue buying and burning. The current speed is about 2 ETH per hour. There’s roughly $950,000 left in the Splitter contract, which corresponds to the money to be gradually distributed in the next round.
There’s a detail here I think is quite important.
The page will later split the funds into Active Buyback Vault and reserved funds for the next cycle, so if you see two amounts, don’t think the buyback budget suddenly doubled. Essentially, it’s the same pool of funds, just one is actively buying and the other is waiting for the next round.
Previously, some in the PONS community questioned why the buyback would stall even though fees were coming in. Ozzy explained that before, escrow claims involved manual/multisig steps, but now the claim→vault→continuous buyback process is automated. The official docs also state that 80% of the protocol fees are used for automatic TWAP buyback of PONS and sent to the burn address. $ETH Good afternoon, brothers, I am Good Dog, aspiring to become a genius teenager in the crypto circle!
Day 9 of 20U compound interest, total assets around 93U.
$ETH It's the weekend, no market movement means no market movement, as usual, not much action. I glanced at the trading volume, it has dropped to 1.5 billion. After playing for so long, this is the lowest I've ever seen, what exactly is going on?
Clearly abnormal. There must be a big change coming soon.
I've basically maxed out my p$AERO The AERO order book is a bit tricky, hovering around 0.86 with repeated grinding, volume hasn't dispersed, and buy orders keep hanging without withdrawing. Purely looking at the candlesticks, this kind of sideways movement followed by volume expansion either means the manipulative whales are shaking out floating chips, or they're building up for a big move. I personally bought some around 0.8627, with a stop loss set just below the low of the previous wick; if it breaks, I'll exit without hesitation. Familiar faces on Base, on-chain liquidity and activity are still there. At this position, there's room to move both up and down, so even if I'm wrong, losses won't be too big. What do you think—is this a shakeout or a bull trap?
👇👇👇$PUMP has already surged 47% in 7 days, now at 0.006375, standing at a recent high. Everyone, if anyone still wants to push from this position, first tie your hands.
There’s a big player inside holding $147 million with over 15x leverage, and the most striking thing is that the available margin has gone straight to zero. This kind of setup looks exciting, but essentially it has nothing to do with you—if their position shakes by just 1%, your monthly salary will be wiped out.
I’m not advising you not to play, I’m reminding you that now is not the time to enter. No one knows when the bearish candle will come after this sharp rise, but it definitely will. Those who haven’t boarded yet should just watch from outside; if you already hold some, don’t add more. If you’re really interested, wait for it to cool down after a pullback. Those chasing at the peak end up carrying others’ loads in the end.
I’ve seen this kind of pulse market many times; even looking at it once more is my loss. $PUMP $PUMP is obviously more eye-catching, with a nearly 15% increase over the past 24 hours at midday. But with this kind of rise, I’m more interested in seeing if it can maintain its momentum into the next trading session. If it just spikes quickly and then volume drops and the price retreats all the way back, the opportunities left after the excitement may not be many. Conversely, if after the rise it doesn’t rush to fall back and keeps hitting new highs, that indicates subsequent buyers are willing to accept higher prices. I will list it as a key coin to watch today, but I won’t take its high ranking in gains as a direct signal that the entire market is strengthening.
$SUI has rebounded today, but the weekly gain is only about 2%, clearly less than the roughly 48% increase over the past month. It’s true that after a fast rise earlier, the upward momentum has slowed down recently. Going forward, if it can again push to higher highs with narrower pullbacks, then there is a basis for further acceleration. For now, I prefer to see it as a consolidation after the rise; whether it can start a second leg up still depends on price action.
$ETH is around 2690, with only a slight increase in the past 24 hours, showing no strong leading effect for now. So I’m leaving some room for a full recovery. What we’re seeing currently looks more like standout performance from some coins. If it can continue to rise and more coins follow, then the scope of the rally can be considered expanding. For now, it’s best to distinguish which coins have already strengthened and which haven’t moved yet, without rushing to apply the same bullish judgment to all coins.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Staring at the sideways consolidation with low volume in the overall market is indeed boring; if you want to make money, you have to watch where the funds flow. The current liquidity situation is awkward—BTC is like a stagnant pool—but if you observe the top Meme tokens and protocols in the Solana ecosystem, there are obvious signs of capital overflow. Several small coins have already seen a moderate increase in turnover even when the overall market hasn't moved, indicating that the main players are still accumulating chips. Don't stubbornly focus on the index; at this stage, pay more attention to those that are resistant to declines and can consolidate with shrinking volume during repeated pullbacks—these have the potential to explode.
$BNB $CAKE $TWT Trading has never been about flashy tricks. It's not that you learn some theory like the Elliott Wave or technical indicators like MACD and then can consistently profit. These tools are designed to create a buy point you trust deeply, but all techniques can fail at times. What matters is whether you can accept the losses when they do fail. Now, I no longer fantasize that every trade will be profitable. Before placing each trade, I think about how many points I will set for stop loss. Because if you trade driven by the desire to profit, the emotional blow of failure is unbearable. So controlling your emotions at this moment is very important. In the market, if you try to catch every opportunity, you actually catch all the losses. Patience is a required lesson for every trader.✴️ $HBAR
Changing the view.
But this looks the most reasonable. The invalidation point is marked.
Given the prolonged nature of wave 2 — this qualifies as a sharp wave 4.
Good luck.In the past 25 days, Bitcoin rose from 63,000 to 87,399 USD, seemingly a big increase
In reality, the entire cryptocurrency market only added 300 billion USD
Compared to the US stock market, this is not even as much as what others make in 3 minutes of trading. $BTC Iran's foreign minister spoke again: the Strait of Hormuz will not open until conditions are met. My reaction after reading this—here we go again. How many times has this been shouted? If it really worked, BTC would have crashed long ago. Instead, it bounced back to 85,000. The market is already immune to this rhetoric; now just talking can't move the market. So the bears shouldn't be too confident. Until 825 breaks, the direction hasn't emerged at all, so don't talk about trends. Right now, it's just a huge box between 825 and 870, ridiculously wide, and there's nothing you can do—this market move is on a big scale, and the volatility is wild. ETH is even more frustrating. It hovered around 2696 for a whole day, with a 24-hour high of 2697.9 and a low of 2677.4, just a twenty-dollar range, with a daily gain of 0.59%. Looking at 4-hour and 1-hour charts, it's consolidating at the top of an ascending channel, bulls slightly dominant, but there's dense trading between 2700–2720, and a volume breakout hasn't come yet. So my current take: BTC is in a wide-range consolidation, ETH is slightly bullish consolidation, no one should rush to take sides—whoever tells you it's time to be bearish now, let them wait until 825 breaks first. $BTC $ETH $XCH Processor Types
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Mortgage delayed by 2 days before paying
The last house, lived in by myself and my daughter
The shop was transferred, the house was sold, all contributed to the crypto circle
At this rate, when will I build my own trading system
Longing for altcoins and dreaming of leading the market doesn't seem to work either
It's really tough, brothersHilarious, someone is bragging everywhere about $CORE burn data, claiming the supply is rapidly decreasing. It looks like they're trying to fool children; at least when you fool kids, you give them a candy, but here they only tell a one-sided story.
They show a cumulative burn of 72,700 tokens from Q1 to Q3, plus tokens pending burn, explaining the mechanism of staking → activity → fees → burn very smoothly. But this presentation only picks favorable data and deliberately omits the unlocked tokens released during the same period.
The burn numbers are increasing, but the tokens unlocked and released each quarter far exceed the burn amount. On one hand, chips are continuously unlocked and released; on the other hand, a small amount is burned. The overall circulating supply is still expanding, so there is no accelerated reduction in supply.
Using burn data alone to create an illusion of deflation ignores the real issues of node loss and ecosystem implementation. The localized positive packaging of data cannot hide the selling pressure caused by continuous unlocking.
⚠️ Risk warning: Virtual currency trading and speculation carry significant risks. This content is only a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. "Sunday's Thin Market, Don't Mistake Direction for Actual Trades"
Over the weekend in the crypto market, BTC, ETH, and XRP all pushed up simultaneously with similar postures. But the market depth is too thin, and price movements are more like signposts rather than confirmations from real capital transactions.
$BTC is around 84.7K. If it holds above 85.2K, the next target is the weekly high at 87.4K, and then 90K beyond that. Citi's 113K is a twelve-month target, not a story to be realized on Sunday. If 82.8K breaks, 80K will come into view.
ETH is about 2680. It needs to first reclaim 2.76K and close above 2.77K for 3.00K to become a meaningful discussion point. Citi's 3,028 is the same—without a closing price, it's just an expectation. The downside failure point is at 2.60K.
XRP is about 1.49. The upward path is 1.55, closing at 1.66, then looking at 1.80. The real breakout threshold remains at 1.66, with support at 1.46.
In order, BTC leads. Without BTC closing above 85.2K, there's no need to rush to believe ETH's 2.77K and XRP's 1.66. Sunday's rise is just a guide, not a trade. Don't chase Sunday's path; wait for Monday's close confirmation. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 The Sandbox (SAND) surged significantly after breaking through months of resistance zones, supported by increased trading volume and open interest. Market sentiment improved after Upbit and Bithumb removed their trading caution labels, with SAND briefly rising above $0.08; key support and resistance levels were also listed, along with a discussion of the subsequent trend in October. Why do arbitrageurs both fix prices and create competition costs?
When the same asset shows a price difference between two trading pools, arbitrageurs buy where it's cheaper and sell where it's more expensive, pushing the quotes closer together. This process allows DeFi prices to reflect supply and demand more quickly and also helps lending and derivatives obtain more reliable on-chain references. Without arbitrage, incorrect prices would persist longer, making it easier for ordinary users to trade in distorted pools.
The problem is that public opportunities attract many bots competing for the same profit. They increase tips, optimize Gas, and race to execute before others, ultimately transferring most of the profits to block producers. Competition can improve market efficiency but also causes congestion and infrastructure advantages. $ETH gains fee demand from trading activity, but the network cannot build all efficiency on ordinary users paying worse execution prices.
Therefore, evaluating MEV cannot be simply good or bad. Whether arbitrage improves prices depends on whether it consumes excessive block resources, profits by sandwiching users, or pushes validators toward a few specialized services. A healthy direction is to retain the functions of price fixing and liquidation risk mitigation while narrowing predatory ordering space. The goal of protocols and wallets is not to eliminate all profits but to ensure profits come from providing effective services.This weekend, I made one trade. Last week's non-farm payroll market, Bitcoin still hasn't broken through the high point, so it's still a difficult mode market. Meanwhile, ETF funds are still overall in a net inflow state, I no longer dare to short Bitcoin. So I shorted other targets whose patterns better fit a bearish structure, one is SHIB, and the others are ASTER and DOGE. Main reasons for not shorting Bitcoin: 1. Bitcoin's ETF funds show net inflows, and last week there was only one day of n$XCH How to Choose the Best Plotting Computer
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The rest of this page only pertains to the original proof format.Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$SAND short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.108%, price +0.03%, open interest -0.9%. Total position contraction, limited net price change, short positions across settlements still bear holding costs corresponding to the current rate.
$AXS short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0439%, price +0.51%, open interest -0.9%. Price increase accompanied by total position contraction, short positions across settlements face both adverse price movement and funding fee expenditure.Every day after work is incredibly boring, my heart feels extremely empty, and my body is especially lonely!
At this moment, I am strolling on the park's track, having already walked many laps!
Today, unlike before when I would frequently open the exchange to check or open the planet to see some friends' analysis of the market trend, I don't want to look anymore. Being overly optimistic leads to mistakes and always affects me! If I had held onto several previous positions, I would have already broken even. But because of those casual market comments from others, I doubted myself, took a small profit and ran, resulting in small wins and big losses, never breaking even.
Now my idea is that after opening a position, I won't check it often. Watching too much only adds unnecessary worry, so I'll just set a take-profit.
Yesterday, I opened a short position on two coins of $ETH. I believe my choice is correct; just hold on and no longer be influenced by the outside world. #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 — what do these inflows and outflows have to do with me? I don't understand them either, so let it be! The net inflow of SOL spot ETFs this week is only about $2.4 million, a sharp drop of about 99% compared to about $188 million last week—I choose to observe, not chase.
According to SoSoValue data, as of the week ending October 2nd Eastern Time, the net inflow of SOL spot ETFs was about $2.4 million, compared to about $188 million last week, a week-on-week plunge of about 99%.
The daily path shows inflows in the first half of the week, followed by two consecutive days of net outflows in the latter half, with a slight positive turn of about $1.3 million on October 2nd, mostly supported by Bitwise towards the end.
Total AUM is about $1.905 billion, with cumulative net inflows of about $1.608 billion; shares remain on the books, but there was almost no incremental ammunition this week.
Simply put: the cumulative numbers look good, but weekly increments have already fizzled out.
Binance is currently around 121.59, with a daily high of about 121.61 and a low of about 119.59.
My view: The $188 million inflow last week was unsustainable hype; cutting weekly inflows to $2.4 million indicates institutional channels are catching their breath, so don’t mistake the cumulative $1.608 billion as a moat for the current price.
Let’s wait for next week’s capital flow to speak; the market is thin over the weekend, so treat this as a brake.
My approach: Observe, don’t chase.
If it holds above about 121.61, then watch 123.76; if it breaks below about 119.59, consider this rebound failed.
Are you more focused on whether the ETF will turn positive again next week, or do you think it will consolidate around 121 first?
$SOL $BTC $ETH
#FederalReserve and EuropeanCentralBank to release September meeting minutes #BTC spot ETF returns to inflows, ETH funds continue outflows$ZEC was hammered down 23% by redemptions, yet still managed +1.6% in 24h
$ZEC was hammered down 23%, but I lean bullish: Grayscale's spot ETF saw its first major weekly net redemption, yet the market closed 24h +1.6%.
Currently at 1339.3, after the event it pulled back to 1332.47 then recovered to 1339.49, the dip was filled by buyers.
Funding rate is neutral at 0.0001, open interest at 483,469.05, up 2.26% from the archive, derivatives are taking over positions; daily MA7 is pressing down on MA30, RSI 48.8 neutral, bullish alignment intact; 30-day up 30.95%, 7-day down 15.62%, this is a shakeout, not a collapse.
Market phase is offensive, breadth 50 up 14 down, fear-greed index 65.
Resistance above: 1344, then 1346.3 as a high point wall
Support below: 1337, daily MA30 is here
Watershed: 1337, holding this means shakeout, breaking it signals weakness
Conclusion: Bullish on $ZEC. Enter near 1339.3, stop loss if it breaks below 1337, take profit at 1344 and then 1346.3.
Watching the market, follow me for the next signal.
$ZEC $BTCThe US dollar has strengthened rapidly over the past month, but forex market analysts have not significantly revised their medium- to long-term forecasts as a result. The latest Reuters survey shows that despite the dollar rising more than 3% since early September, nearly 70 surveyed forex strategists generally expect the dollar to give back most of its recent gains over the next year.
However, analysts are noticeably more cautious about the short-term trend. When asked whether the dollar is more likely to be above or below their respective forecasts in the next three months, 80% of respondents believe the dollar is more likely to outperform their predictions. This indicates that after the Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes, US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels in over two decades, and global bond markets experienced severe volatility, the current upward momentum of the dollar has begun to force the market to reassess previously overly bearish views.
As of Friday's US session, the dollar index hovered below 102, having touched its highest level since April 2025 on Thursday. #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 6 million USD, gone just like that.
The treasury on Base was drained, 1783 wstETH stolen. The attacker added a contract to the whitelist themselves and directly borrowed the tokens.
In other words, the door was opened from the inside.
This incident poses no systemic risk to $ETH itself, but there is one point to watch — if the attacker dumps these 1783 wstETH, the peg price of LST will suffer in the short term.
From the counterparty's perspective, the most urgent concern right now isn’t Base, but the holders of wstETH. You don’t know when they will sell, but you know they will.
So don’t rush to bottom-fish LST; wait for them to make the first move.
In this on-chain business, no matter how well the code is written, it can’t prevent someone from opening the door from the inside.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回 $ETH Midday Crypto Market | More than enough recovery, insufficient momentum—but what's brewing beneath the surface?
First, let's talk about something you might have overlooked: risk appetite is quietly warming up.
The market has been very "sticky" these past two days—neither rising nor falling much, which might seem boring if you only watch the candlesticks. But if you look beyond the charts, you'll notice several subtle changes happening.
First, the inflation data provided reassurance. The US March CPI year-over-year was 3.3%, slightly below expectations. Although energy costs are still rising, the driving force behind core inflation is narrowing. Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo said this is more a reason for "cautious optimism" than an alarm, noting that "the broader inflation impulse is contracting."
Second, ETF funds are getting serious. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $358 million, and Ethereum funds also attracted $85 million. This isn't retail investors chasing gains emotionally; institutions are allocating real capital. Meanwhile, the 20-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks has dropped to 0.34, indicating $BTC is gradually breaking free from the tech sector's influence and developing its own narrative.
Third, the whales aren't running. New long positions in perpetual contracts have pushed $BTC and $ETH holdings up by over $2 billion each. Some analysts believe a "structural bottom is forming." Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee also bluntly stated—"More and more signals indicate the market has found its bottom."
Back to the market: sentiment is still hesitant, but the structure isn't bad.
$BTC is slightly positive around 84,800, with 84,000 as a short-term critical level. Holding this level means the recovery pattern remains intact. Honestly, the tug-of-war here is interesting—there's significant resistance above, but solid buying support below, and the pullback has never spiraled out of control.
$ETH is at 2,685, warming up moderately with the broader market, with 2,620 as support below. $ETH still suffers from the old problem—lack of an independent narrative driver. However, Tom Lee's recent remarks are worth noting; he listed Ethereum and related assets as top picks, reasoning that $ETH showed relative strength during geopolitical conflicts and is becoming a "barometer" of market resilience. You can choose to believe this or not, but at least it shows institutional capital is seriously considering $ETH's allocation value.
$ZEC is at 1,318, weak at midday, with a pullback more pronounced than mainstream coins; 1,280 is a key support. Small-cap coins naturally bear pressure in this choppy pattern, so no surprises there.
How do I see this market move?
Frankly, I'm a bit more optimistic than a few days ago—not because the market has risen, but because it hasn't fallen despite negative factors.
After the positive CPI data, $BTC surged to 73,000 but couldn't hold, indicating real selling pressure above. But from another angle, with geopolitical risks ongoing, oil prices high, and market sentiment still in the "extreme fear" zone (Fear & Greed Index at only 14), $BTC holding steady between 71,000 and 73,000 shows there is support below.
On a larger scale, I still view this as a bull market early-stage correction and shakeout. But to say now is the "moment to attack," I disagree. A trend breakout requires volume confirmation, and current volumes don't support that. More likely, the market will continue to consolidate and bottom out, waiting for more catalysts on the macro calendar—such as upcoming inflation data and the Fed's next moves.
What about tonight?
I maintain the range-bound view, but volatility may increase, and the risk of stop-loss hunting spikes. My strategy is to lean slightly long, not chasing rallies or blindly bottom-fishing. Consider buying in batches on pullbacks to support, with strict stop-loss and position management. Specifically:
· $BTC: Light long positions can be tried if it stabilizes near 84,000; stop loss decisively if it breaks below 83,500; watch resistance around 86,000-86,500 above.
· $ETH: Maintain a slightly bullish stance if 2,620 holds; if it breaks 2,600, wait and watch for lower levels.
· $ZEC: If volume and stabilization signals appear near 1,280, small positions can be taken to bet on a rebound, but control small-cap coin exposure carefully.
Finally, a frank word: in this grinding, choppy market, the biggest mistake is frequent trading. Patience can sometimes be more valuable than judgment. Build positions gradually at support levels, don't rush, the market will provide opportunities.
The above are personal views and do not constitute investment advice. Position management is always more important than directional judgment.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 WLD/USDT — BUY ON RETEST
WLD is holding a strong daily recovery structure after rising from $0.3523 to $0.6197. Current price is around $0.59, with daily MACD still positive.
Fundamentally, World is expanding World ID, World Money and World Chain, while the WLD unlock rate was reduced 43% to ~2.9M WLD/day in July.
Entry: $0.55–$0.57
SL: $0.52
TP1: $0.70
TP2: $0.80
Confirmation: Daily close above $0.62
Invalidation: Daily close below $0.52
#BessentTreasuryYields
$WLD Can we stop the volatility, $ETH? It broke through 2530 all the way to 2700, and the 2700-2800 range is full of short liquidations and stop-losses closing shorts and buying, further pushing the price upward without much effort. If this bull market wants to continue, it needs to clear high-leverage longs in the 2450-2300 range. That's where those of you shouting for the bull market to return won't make money.
Right now, my average price is 2685.11, but the non-farm payroll data from the day before yesterday only caused a 1.11 amplitude. Although the lowest point reached 2648, I haven't made a profit. Previously, to manage risk, I closed profitable $BTC positions and other losing positions. I can only start making a profit at the 2550 range. I'll keep holding; I've already paid tens of thousands of dollars in fees. $SOL The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes could arrive at a time when the market has already moved on. The reason is simple: the economic picture has changed significantly in just a few days. 1. The Fed’s September View Has Already Been Challenged At the September meeting, the Fed had just delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike. Much of the discussion was still centered on whether another hike would be necessary later. Then came the latest jobs report. U.S. payrolls iBTC at $85,200, do you dare to chase it?
On October 2, it was just slammed down from 87,240; on October 3, it dropped to 83,880; today it was forcibly pulled back to 85,200 — the upper half of the box, still no breakout. On one side, the probability of a rate hike collapsed from 66% to 22%, on the other, ETFs suddenly had a net outflow of $149 million. Is this wave the end of the shakeout or a rebound trap?
Let's look at the surface first: all data is improving, but the price just won't go up.
September nonfarm payrolls were only 29,000, as soft as it gets. The probability of a rate hike in October dropped directly from 66% two weeks ago to 22%-40%. PCE dropped from 4.1% to 3.4%. Logically, BTC should take off.
But if you look at the order book: 85,200 is stuck in the middle. It can't break above 86,575, nor fall below 83,800.
Lots of bullish factors, but the price doesn't rise — this is the most dangerous and also the most opportunistic position.
First thing: what's suppressing BTC is not the rate hike, but the 5.3% yield.
Many people misunderstand one thing.
The rate hike probability dropped, so why didn't BTC surge?
Because the 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 5.3%.
In plain terms: money placed in government bonds earns a risk-free 5.3%. If BTC doesn't rise, why would I move my money here to gamble?
As long as yields don't drop, there will always be sellers above 85,200. This isn't manipulation by big players; it's the cost of capital.
What's even more painful — on September 30, spot ETFs had a net outflow of $149 million, the first retreat after continuous inflows. Institutions are pulling back, and you're still fantasizing about a big bullish candle changing your view?
Second thing: this rally is not new leverage, it's shorts being forced to cover.
On October 2, it surged to 87,200, shorts were liquidated. Then it dropped to 83,880, bulls caught it. Now back to 85,200 — no obvious expansion in open interest.
What does this mean?
This is not a main upward wave; it's a correction within the box.
A real breakout requires volume increase + open interest growth + consecutive bullish candles. Only one condition is met now. So don't get excited; this is not the start of a bull market, it's bulls and bears fighting within the 83,000-87,200 box.
Historical high of 126,000? That's a mid-term story. That number won't be used this week; anyone using it to boost confidence is just a retail trader.
Third thing: daily bulls haven't broken, but the 4-hour chart is still in the box.
Daily: price is above all major moving averages, 50-day > 200-day, RSI about 65 — strong, not overbought.
4-hour: 87,240 failed → 83,880 stopped falling → 85,200 recovered. Classic box, 83,000-87,200.
Today it stood above the midline 84,600, but hasn't touched 86,575 yet.
Key signal: daily close above 86,575 to look at 87,200/88,500. Close below 84,800 means rebound failed, back to 83,800.
What is 85,200? Above the first daily support 84,800, below the first resistance 86,575. In short, stuck in the middle, the easiest place to be swept back and forth.
Bulls vs bears, you decide:
On one side:
Rate hike probability collapsed, nonfarm 29,000, PCE down, easing expectations rising
Daily bullish structure intact, price above all moving averages
83,880 stopped falling effectively, shorts liquidated once on October 2
Post-halving issuance pace unchanged, no supply shock
Citibank 12-month target 113,000, mid-term anchor still there
On the other side:
10-year US Treasury yield capped at 5.3%, high capital cost
ETF net outflow $149 million, institutions pulling back short-term
87,200 failed three times, huge resistance
CPI/FOMC/PCE triple events from October 14-29
No expansion in open interest, not a main upward structure
Key position 85,200, just one step away from direction choice.
Resistance above: 86,000 → 86,575 → 87,200-88,000 → 88,500 → 90,000
Support below: 84,800 → 83,800-84,000 → 82,900 → 82,000
Trading strategy
Within the box (most likely current scenario):
85,200 has left the lower edge, no chasing longs. If rebound to 86,000-86,575 is resisted and 4-hour candle can't close above, light short positions with stop loss above 87,250, target 84,800/83,800. If it falls back to 83,800-84,000 and shows a long lower shadow stop, buy in batches with stop loss below 83,200, target 85,200/86,000.
Breakout trade:
4-hour close firmly above 87,200 with volume, then look at 88,500-90,000, stop loss below 86,000 close. Daily close below 83,800 and failure to recover, short targets move down to 82,900/82,000.
Pre-event discipline:
Before CPI (October 14), sweeping around 85,200 is normal. If yield breaks above 5.3% again, downgrade breakout trades. Continuous ETF net outflows, reduce chasing above 86,500. Single trade risk control within 1% of account.
If you don't dare to buy at 83,800 nor chase at 87,200, then why are you in the market?
The box edges are for buying dips and taking profits. The middle 85,200 is for those who can't control their hands to pay fees.
BTC now is like a spring compressed to the limit — 83,800 and 87,200, one side will inevitably break.
What you need to do is not guess the direction, but wait for it to choose, then follow.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 400u challenge 10wu
Day 95
Principal 400u, target 10wu
Currently 7300u, 1300u withdrawn
1. It feels like it's no longer easy to short altcoins now A 0.16% margin rate is like tap dancing on edge of Grim Reaper's blade; if I don't lock in profits soon, tonight will definitely be sleepless night! Listen to advice, close half position, save your life! Brothers, looking at 0.16% in my account, cold sweat just broke out on back. From 0.39% and 0.29% before, dropping all way down to 0.16%, I've really been pushing myself step by step into dead end. Position update: BCH: Eternal charge! Full position 10X leverage, entry at 261.02, mark price 318.$LINK Long & Short areas were mentioned.
Price first touched the LONG area, forms a Bullish candle 🕯️ and is 4% up so far. 🚀
Note:- down wick was a Liquidity sweep, not closed below the zone then came in and forms bullish confirmation.
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #BessentTreasuryYields "ZEC suddenly rebounds, and the bears are starting to stir again"
$ZEC's move today is quite interesting.
It first rose from around 1283 to 1334, then fell back to about 1316.
On the surface, it's a nice rebound.
But if you look at a longer timeframe, the picture changes:
There is still a good gain over 30 days, but the short-term momentum has clearly cooled off.
This often leads to a situation where—
the major trend isn't completely broken yet, but short-term funds have started to take profits.
What I'm more focused on now isn't whether ZEC went up or down today, but whether it can continue to break past previous highs after each rebound.
Around 1319, it just reached a short-term technical resistance zone; after pushing up, it didn't continue with volume and instead fell back.
This kind of movement is uncomfortable for the bulls.
So near 1316, I got itchy and opened a small short position.
I'm not bearish on ZEC's long-term cycle, just betting that this rebound won't have enough strength.
My thinking is simple:
Around 1334 is the previous high and also the risk boundary for this trade.
If it breaks through and holds, it means the bears were wrong, and I'll accept that directly.
If the rebound fails again, then I'll watch the support near 1280 below.
What really makes me cautious is the change in capital flow.
If the price remains high but funds keep flowing out, and the rebound increasingly depends on short-term sentiment, then the most likely scenario is:
The rise will be quick, and the fall won't give you much time to react. Crypto ETF funds show clear divergence, no longer moving collectively in the same direction.
$BTC spot ETF funds maintain net inflows, with institutional allocation willingness still strong, becoming the main anchor of market funds. ETH funds continue to flee, with insufficient bullish confidence and a lack of funds to support the rebound. $SOL's popularity rapidly declines, with a significant reduction in incremental funds. Other small-cap coin ETFs also face fund cash-outs and exits.
Local bullish candles on the chart easily create a false impression of a broad rally; essentially, it is fund rotation and stock switching within the market, not a full-scale bull market launch. The market is undergoing structural rotation, with funds withdrawing from some coins and concentrating into BTC for risk-averse positioning. Price fluctuations are merely the surface manifestation after fund movements; fund flow is the leading signal of the market.
The current bullish logic still exists but must be validated by fund flows. Going forward, focus on three signals: whether BTC fund inflows can continue, whether ETH redemption momentum can be stopped, and whether funds in the SOL sector can flow back again.
On the macro level, the rise in US Treasury yields continues the global environment trend. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are about to release the September meeting minutes, and policy expectations will continue to disturb market sentiment. Judging price movements solely by candlesticks is prone to misinterpret the nature of the market; fund flow is the core observation line.
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 "The scariest thing in the crypto world is not buying at the peak, but continuously finding reasons to justify it after the peak."
Recently, seeing $CORE reminded me of a particularly typical crypto story.
Someone got over ten thousand CORE tokens early on.
At first, the account numbers kept rising, and the group chat was shouting every day:
"Hold on!"
"This is an opportunity!"
"The next round will definitely come back!"
Back then, everyone was discussing how high it could go, but few seriously asked one question:
If the market reverses, when exactly should I exit?
Later, the price started to weaken continuously.
$5, $4, $1...
Every time it dropped, someone told themselves:
"It has already dropped so much, it can't fall further."
But the harshest truth of the market is here:
The price won't stop falling just because you've already lost a lot.
When an asset enters a prolonged downtrend, what truly wears people down is not a sudden crash on a single day, but the repeated "just wait a little longer."
Down 20%, hoping for a rebound.
Down 50%, hoping to break even.
Down 80%, starting to feel selling makes no sense.
Eventually, it changes from "investing in a project" to "holding onto a cost basis."
And the cost basis only matters to yourself.
The market will never give you a chance to break even just because of the price you originally paid.
So now I increasingly feel:
Before buying a coin, besides asking how much it can rise, you should ask yourself: if it falls, what is my reason to hold on "The most expensive tuition in the crypto world is often not buying the wrong coin, but refusing to admit you bought the wrong one."
Recently, I saw someone talking again about old projects like $CORE and $BICO.
Many people have had similar experiences:
When they bought in, the group was full of "the next 100x," "the next round of takeoff," "hold and get rich."
When the price went up, everyone thought they had good insight.
But once the trend reverses, the story changes completely.
$CORE has fallen all the way down from its high, and what really hurts is not a sudden big drop on one day, but a little drop every day.
Today you think it might rebound.
Tomorrow you think it has already dropped a lot, and it’s a pity to sell.
A few days later you tell yourself:
"It’s dropped this much already, just wait a bit longer."
The loss goes from 10% to 30%, then from 30% to 70%.
In the end, you realize you’re no longer investing, but waiting for a miracle.
This is actually a very typical trap in the crypto world:
When profitable, you like to calculate the future; when losing, you just want to wait to break even.
At first, you bought a project,
then you defended your cost price,
and finally, all you hold onto is the phrase:
"I’ll sell as soon as I break even."
But the market doesn’t know where your cost is.
So now, looking at these kinds of long-term declining coins, I think one principle is especially important:
Don’t assume it’s worth holding just because you’ve already lost a lot.
How much you’ve lost is not a reason to keep holding.
What you really should ask