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After this wave of the market surge, the whole market collectively "bows down to rest." Many people have already started imagining a big bear market is coming. My view is simple and straightforward: this is a pullback to digest the overbought rise. After the pullback, the bullish outlook remains; don't be scared off by a single bearish candle.
$BTC
After a strong rally, a long upper shadow was thrown out, with many rushing to take profits and exit. Fortunately, the 5-day moving average is still firmly supporting, and the bulls' structure hasn't collapsed.
Attack point: Holding above 85200 means this rest is enough, and we can aim to retest the previous highs around 87300‑87400.
Defense point: 83700. If the daily candle decisively breaks below this level, the pullback will be significant, and the bullish stance should be abandoned. The next support to watch for survival is 80700.
$ETH
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's pullback is ruthless. After hitting 2806, it dropped sharply with a big bearish candle and is now hovering below the 5-day moving average without a sign of stabilization.
Attack point: Regaining and holding above 2720 is needed to catch a breath and have a chance to retest the 2800 highs.
Defense point: 2570. If it can't hold the MA10 level, this upward momentum is paused, and don't stubbornly fight the market.
$ZEC
The most volatile among the three brothers, it surged the most and fluctuated wildly. It pulled back after the high but all moving averages are supporting the price. Friendly reminder: this coin often experiences sharp spikes, so when trading, always leave room for slippage.
Attack point: Holding above 1635 to continue pushing towards the previous high at 1680.
Defense point: 1515. If it falls below the 5-day moving average, the short-term trend will pause and rest, with further support at 1406.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ $84,000 support line in danger: Bulls and bears battle nearly $2 billion, who is orchestrating this surge and fall?
On September 23, Bitcoin dropped to $84,015.2, down 2.23% within 24 hours; Ethereum fell to $2,651.76, down 3.22%. Just one day earlier, Bitcoin had touched $87,300, marking a new high since January 2026. The 3-hour US-Iran talks released positive signals—Iran proposed a conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, WTI crude oil fell over 2% in response, geopolitical risk premiums were quickly removed, and Bitcoin briefly surged to $87,200 intraday.
However, this "cooling trade" did not bring sustained momentum to the crypto market. After digesting such a bullish macro headline, Bitcoin only moved by a fraction of a percent, indicating that marginal buyers were more macro allocators rebalancing rather than crypto-native funds.
The cost of the bulls and bears struggle was severe. In the past 24 hours, over 91,443 people worldwide were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $292 million, approximately ¥1.959 billion. Technically, the $83,000 to $84,000 range has become a key support for BTC; if held, it could challenge $88,000 to $90,000; ETH must hold the $2,550 support line. In the medium to long term, the market is expected to continue wide-range oscillations. #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Just finished going through the Fed officials' speeches. Honestly, I have only one feeling — this isn't over, and don't expect any straightforward answers in the short term.
Barkin laid it out clearly: over 60% of PCE subcomponents have year-over-year increases still above 3%, so inflation risk outweighs unemployment risk. Collins added on, saying the likelihood of inflation staying above 2% is rising. Moussaalem was even more direct, suggesting further tightening may be necessary. Three hawks speaking on the same day with surprisingly consistent messages — this is no coincidence.
On CME, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October has reached 54.2%. What does 54.2% mean? It's basically a coin toss; the market itself is conflicted. To put it plainly, the question now isn't whether to hike, but how long this tightening cycle will last.
Inflation hasn't collapsed, employment remains strong, so high interest rates won't be "withdrawn immediately" but will be a "long-term" matter.
---
Let's talk about $BTC.
Short term is definitely uncomfortable, no avoiding that. The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed back above 5%, making the opportunity cost of risk-free assets obvious. Capital would rather earn 5% interest than bear volatility.
ETF data illustrates this further: on September 18, net inflows were only $6.21 million for the week, nearly the lowest in 141 weeks. Then suddenly on September 21, it exploded to $999 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since October 2025. This on-again, off-again rhythm raises doubts about sustainability; once it stops, a pullback is likely. $BTC is hovering around 86,000, with a slight intraday dip; $ETH fell below 2,700. The Fear & Greed Index is at 70, in the greed zone, but down 9 points from yesterday, indicating sentiment is ebbing.
But looking at the longer term, the logic is completely different.
US national debt just broke 40 trillion in August, with annual interest payments soaring to 1.2 trillion, roughly equal to defense spending. The CBO forecasts that within ten years, public debt held as a percentage of GDP will rise to 120%. Interest keeps compounding, forcing the Treasury to issue more debt to cover payments. Ultimately, this leads either to implicit money printing or inflation dilution — either way, the dollar's credit is being eroded.
$BTC, as a non-sovereign hard asset, benefits from this dynamic.
So at this point, don't chase highs or panic. Short term watch interest rates; medium term watch credit. Once the rate hike path becomes clear, the direction will naturally emerge.
Do you think there will be a hike in October? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 The first time I heard people talking about crypto was at the small convenience store downstairs.
Two older guys were buying cigarettes and talking about how they made money yesterday.
I pretended to pick out a drink while listening closely.
When I got home, I searched how to buy.
After downloading the app and registering for a long time,
I waited for the verification code and almost wanted to throw my phone.
Once inside, the screen was full of red and green lines.
I looked for ten minutes but still didn’t understand.
I first deposited a few hundred yuan, my fingers trembling.
Bought some $BTC.
After buying, I stared at the screen.
If it went up a bit, I grinned.
If it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless.
My lunch got cold and I didn’t touch it.
At night, lying in bed, I still checked my phone.
The next day, seeing it barely moved, I was exhausted first.
Later, I heard people say $ETH can be used on-chain.
I joined the fun again.
Transferring funds took forever.
The fees made me grit my teeth.
At that time, I joined several groups.
Every day someone in the group shouted to rush in.
I got itchy hands hearing that.
Afraid of missing out, I often bought at the top.
Once I made a profit but didn’t sell.
Wanted to wait longer, but all the profits vanished.
Another time it dropped and I panicked.
Just sold it, then it slowly rose back.
I was so mad I slapped my thigh.
Later, I tried $SOL with a small position.
It’s really fast.
When it pumps, it’s fierce.
In minutes it can make you smile.
In minutes it can make you shut up.
I’ve seen others show off profits,
and others lose so much they delete the app.
Gradually, I stopped checking groups.
I don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
Only play with spare money.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t go all in.
Don’t touch projects I don’t understand, even if free.
Sleep when it’s time to sleep at night.
If I miss out, I miss out.
Don’t get cocky when you win.
Don’t get upset when you lose.
Being able to keep going is more important than how much you make in one trade.
This is my most honest feeling after messing around these years #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ Peter Brandt said if ETH breaks 5000, it can reach 8600.
I've been staring at this number for a long time.
He has been trading since 1976 and has seen all kinds of situations. Charts drawn by someone like him are very likely to be correct.
But the problem lies here as well.
He specifically added a sentence: Posting a chart doesn't mean he actually made that trade; anyone claiming they did must provide proof.
This sentence is more valuable than 8600.
It means—don't take my chart as your position.
I remember when I used to see such target levels, my first reaction was to calculate how much I could earn, never how much I would lose if I was wrong.
Now when I see this kind of news, I habitually think of one thing first: If it really reaches 8600, who is selling me the 3600 points in between?
Veteran draws the chart, novice takes the position, this script is too familiar.
Remember 8600 for now, I’m more interested in seeing who is placing orders at the 5000 level.
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $ETH There is a rather counterintuitive phenomenon in the crypto circle.
When a coin hits a new high, everyone starts researching why it can rise to 100,000.
When a coin falls for two days, everyone starts researching why it will go to zero.
The same SOL, with different prices, leads to completely opposite conclusions in the comment section.
So I view this surge and pullback the same way.
I don't think it will keep going north just because the weekly chart rose 20%.
Nor do I think the RWA narrative is just a pipe dream because it fell 3% today.
What needs to be studied should still be studied—Autobahn, 200,000 TPS, Ondo's USDY integration are solid facts.
What needs to be doubted should still be doubted—the monthly chart has risen a lot, and profit-taking could happen at any time.
When it comes to your own money, you still have to figure it out yourself.
$SOL
#Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ SOL's spike to 119.7 today surged briefly, but no one dared to follow the wave at 120.0.
Yesterday's low was 115.6, the high was 120.0, and it closed at 117.4. Today it opened around 117.4, peaked at 119.7 without breaking through, dropped to a low of 113.0, and the current price is about 114.5. The volume ratio shrank again compared to yesterday; after the upward surge, it slid back down.
The resistance remains between 119.7 and 120.0, with the next major high at 295.9 above that. If it breaks below 113.0, it’s likely to first test 108.5; if that level doesn't hold, the short-term target will be around 107.4 to find space.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 114.5 can hold. If it can't hold, treat the recent rise and fall as digestion and avoid chasing at this price. For those already holding, watch if the low of 113.0 today can support; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy the dip, wait for a pullback and reconsider if it can't break through 120.0—don't catch a falling knife mid-air. $SOL $SOL The core of SOL's rise in this round is solving historical fatal shortcomings and establishing a differentiated high-speed settlement narrative from Ethereum. The official launch of the Firedancer multi-client eliminates the risk of a single client outage, achieving a qualitative change in network stability. Its low latency and high throughput characteristics suit high-frequency trading and on-chain clearing, forming a unique track positioning. The token economy significantly enhances fee burning through the SIMD proposal, directly converting on-chain activity into deflation, with inflation decreasing year by year, improving the long-term supply-demand structure.
The US spot SOL ETF and staking ETF continue to see capital inflows, opening compliant allocation channels for family offices and asset management institutions, bringing sustained base buying. The ecosystem forms a clear differentiated layout: Ethereum focuses on heavy DeFi and traditional RWA, while SOL undertakes AI Agents, lightweight asset tokenization, and on-chain Meme asset circulation. On-chain active addresses and stablecoin trading volume continue to rise. Meme is just short-term traffic; the long-term core is the infrastructure demand for institutional RWA and AI autonomous trading. Coupled with improved expectations for crypto regulation in this cycle, funds no longer treat it as a follower substitute for ETH but as an independent high-speed settlement layer, becoming a relatively resilient target among the top-tier public chains in this bull market.$BTC has fallen below 85000, now at 84376.5, are you panicking?
I previously lost 200,000 U because I panicked and cut losses recklessly, now I've learned my lesson. Resistance is at 85000, support at 84000, the range is very clear.
I have a small 5000 U position going long near 84000, stop loss set at 83800, target at 85000. Never hold a position without a stop loss, accept losses when they happen, take profits when you can, don't be greedy. $ #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $BTC $ZEC
Rallied again. It's not the market going crazy, it's me being wrong about the direction.
Phone turned on and off repeatedly. Didn't uninstall the app, just threw the icon into a corner, like hiding losses in a drawer.
At first, I didn't set a stop loss, thinking I could hold through. Now I realize holding on isn't a plan, it's procrastination; looking for funds isn't a cure, it's just paying for mistakes.
In a bull market, I stubbornly run against the flow, like rushing down an escalator. While others count profits, I count how many points I am away from the break-even line.
I no longer pray to God. God is busy, candlesticks don't listen to prayers. I only ask myself: stop first, find cash flow first, stabilize life first. Getting back to break-even isn't faith, it's a signpost; when you get there, reduce your position, leave, don't look back.
$BTC $ZEC, it's not bad compatibility, it's me mistaking obsession for a trading system.
This time I won't uninstall. I'll keep it as a mirror. If I really can get out, before quitting the circle, I'll do only one thing: carve "stop loss" before the next position opening.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ DOGE made a quick spike to 0.1044 today, but no one dared to follow the wave up to 0.1059.
Yesterday's low was 0.0952, the high was 0.1059, and it closed at 0.1000. Today it opened around 0.1000, peaked at 0.1044 without breaking through, bottomed at 0.0986, and the current price is about 0.0992. The volume ratio has shrunk significantly compared to yesterday; after the upward push, it slid back down.
There is still resistance between 0.1044 and 0.1059 above; only beyond that is the high point around 0.74. If it breaks below 0.0986, it’s likely to test 0.0952 first; if that level doesn’t hold, the short-term target will be around 0.0856 to find space.
In the short term, watch if the current price around 0.0992 can hold. If it can’t, treat the recent rise and fall as digestion and don’t chase the price now. For those already holding, watch if the low at 0.0986 today can hold; if not, consider reducing your position. For those looking to buy on dips, wait for a pullback and consider only if it can break past 0.1059; don’t catch a falling knife in midair. $DOGE Early morning BTC at 84K directly long
The previous high of 87.3K is the new high since January in this round, after a surge it pulled back to 84K, the cup handle is consolidating, the 100-day EMA is above 80K.
Double kill — the clear bill failure and the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points — neither broke below 80K, ETF inflows continued for two consecutive days this week, nearly 1 billion on 9/21 in a single day, institutions haven't fled at all.
Directly long, operate around 84K, the target first looks at the previous high of 87.3K, once that line is passed, 90K is the next stop.
It's just that straightforward to go long! A pullback to 80K is an opportunity to add positions!
$BTC #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 $BTC 847 took 120 hits✅
The main force chose to hunt downward, driven by the US stock market. The Nasdaq opened and fell all the way, and the US stock market declined. This is a macro risk, breaking the main force's upward momentum, which was unexpected. There's no time yet to study the new range.
However, this wave of reducing position risk was very extreme. Just after finishing, it started to fall, which involves an element of luck. Closed contracts + reduced altcoins, the only thing I didn't do was protect the BTC position. Overall, I'm very satisfied. Brothers, I hope you are too Is the altcoin season here? The Glassnode indicator has just shifted into "altcoin season," but are your positions in BTC or altcoins?
I came across some interesting data this morning.
Glassnode's "altcoin cycle" indicator officially entered "altcoin season" this week, with the 7-day moving average rising to 81.25, an absolute high within the 0 to 100 range.
This is not said lightly. Look at the data:
The total market cap of altcoins has surged to $1.19 trillion, hitting a new high since the end of January this year, up 33% cumulatively since August 19. Bitcoin's market dominance only slightly increased from 59.2% on August 19 to 59.7%, basically unchanged — indicating that funds are flowing out to altcoins rather than just pulling BTC.
And this time it's different from the August wave. Glassnode specifically pointed out: the first rebound in August was mainly driven by Bitcoin, with altcoins overall remaining flat; but this round, the market has spread to a broader altcoin market.
But here come some very real questions:
ETH is holding above 2700, SOL just broke 120, and DOGE rose 11% in a single day. So how much has your altcoin position recovered?
ETF funds are still flowing in — the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $1 billion in a single day, and the Ethereum ETF absorbed $414 million over two days. But this money mainly goes into BTC and ETH, not small-cap coins.
This is the most painful part: the "altcoin season" indicator lighting up doesn't mean every altcoin will rise. The kind of market in 2021 where "you could buy any altcoin and double your money" might not appear this round at all. Funds are rotating toward large-cap altcoins — ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB — rather than spreading to the "alts among alts."
Discuss your portfolio structure in the comments. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $DOGE $ZEC $SOL OKX perpetual total open interest increased to $8.223 billion, BTC funding rate at 0.0024% with no leverage chasing higher
Tonight, OKX perpetual total open interest rose to $8.223 billion, with BTC funding rate only 0.0024%, so night session holders don’t have to bear high funding fees.
I just checked the OKX contracts page and the market cap shrank by 3.22% in the last 24 hours across the whole market, but OKX perpetual total open interest didn’t decrease; instead, it increased to $8.223 billion. BTC perpetual alone accounts for $3.224 billion, ETH accounts for $1.876 billion. The overall fear and greed index dropped from extreme greed yesterday to 71 in the greed zone, indicating a slight cooling of bullish sentiment.
I also switched to the spot page to check: BTC is listed at 85,333.4 USDT, ETH at 2,699.93 USDT. BTC contract funding rate is 0.0024%, ETH rate is 0.003%, which annualizes to less than 1.1%. The altcoin-to-BTC open interest ratio is suppressed to 0.969, and BTC’s market cap share across the network remains at 58.78%, with funds revolving entirely within Bitcoin, leaving little for altcoin markets.
I personally hold my spot base position during the night session without moving it, and I’m not in a hurry to add leverage or chase orders in the contract account. As long as OKX perpetual open interest stays steadily above $8.2 billion with smooth turnover, I will continue to wait for the US stock night session liquidity to fully play out.$USELESS — they liquidated me, so I’m shorting again. 😤🔥
This altcoin has little fundamental value, while the broader market looks eerily similar to the post-rate-hike setup: euphoria first, weakness later.
$USELESS topped near $0.3588 and is struggling around $0.335. EMA5/10/20 are turning bearish, hinting momentum may be fading. 📉
I added a 5x short around $0.3337, liquidation near $0.4104.
⚠️ High risk. No blind leverage. Watch the levels, not the hype.
$BTC $ETH #BTC87KCryptoCap3T Fixing the faucet or turning back time? An article explaining the essential difference between hard forks and rollbacks, did CORE make the wrong choice?
⚠️This article is based solely on publicly available on-chain information and does not constitute any investment advice
Many people confuse hard forks with rollbacks, thinking that if a vulnerability occurs, a hard fork can erase the loss. To put it simply: hard fork = fixing the faucet, stopping future leaks; rollback = turning back time, erasing transactions that have already happened.
The 8.31 reward contract crisis, the CORE project team chose a hard fork (forward upgrade), firmly refusing to do an on-chain rollback. This technical choice directly determined the subsequent long-term stagnation of the token price.
1. Hard Fork VS Rollback, the core difference
✅ Hard Fork (forward upgrade, CORE's current solution)
Only modifies future network rules, patches contract vulnerabilities, and blocks channels that continue to be exploited for rewards.
All transactions that have already occurred and tokens that have already been released are fully retained; the ledger history will not be rewritten.
It's like a burst pipe at home: fixing the valve stops future leaks, but the water already spilled on the floor cannot be recovered.
CORE's Hermes hard fork this time blocked the vulnerability to prevent validators from continuing to claim excessive rewards; however, the 69 million ghost tokens already withdrawn remain legally on-chain and will not be destroyed.
✅ Rollback (turning back time solution, not adopted by CORE)
Restores the entire blockchain ledger to the block height before the vulnerability was exploited, revoking all transactions during the attack period, and returning tokens to their original accounts.
Typical case: The 2016 Ethereum The DAO hack, where Ethereum chose rollback, returning stolen funds to their original paths, at the cost of splitting the chain into ETH and ETC.
Rollback has huge costs: rewriting the ledger breaks the blockchain's fundamental consensus of "transactions are immutable," requiring all DApps, exchanges, and cross-chain bridges to adapt synchronously, causing massive trust disputes.
2. CORE faced two choices at the time, each with pros and cons
Choice 1: Hard fork, no rollback (project team's final solution)
Advantages:
1. Does not alter historical ledger, defends the narrative of blockchain immutability, avoids community splits;
2. Technically easier to implement, does not disrupt all on-chain DApps, staking, or exchange funds.
Fatal disadvantage:
The 69 million CORE tokens exploited by the vulnerability cannot be recovered. These low-cost tokens become ghost chips hanging over the market, ready to be sold on the secondary market at any time.
Blocks future vulnerabilities, but historical selling pressure remains permanently.
Choice 2: Initiate ledger rollback
Advantages: Directly revoke the excess tokens issued, eliminate ghost chips, restore the token release curve to the original plan, and remove the biggest selling pressure risk.
Huge disadvantages:
1. Rewrites on-chain history, directly damaging the public chain's belief in immutability; institutions worry that the project team could rollback any transaction at will in the future;
2. Many normal user transactions, staking, and transfers on-chain would be revoked, causing asset state confusion for many innocent users, DApp ecosystem paralysis, exchange business chaos, and severe community splits.
3. Did CORE really make the wrong choice? The market has given the answer
From a purely technical security perspective: hard fork is prudent, blocking vulnerabilities and preventing recurrence, and ordinary user assets were not stolen.
But from the token economics and secondary market perspective, this choice came at a heavy cost.
Institutions evaluating public chains value predictable token release models. The 8.31 incident proved that the original release rules could be broken by vulnerabilities; and the project team's refusal to rollback or destroy excess tokens means the risk remains permanently on the table.
Even though the Hermes hard fork completed the upgrade and no similar vulnerabilities will appear again, the 69 million ghost chips still exist. Once the market rallies, low-cost chips will be cashed out to dump the price, and major funds are unwilling to enter and support the price.
This explains why the BTCFi sector has warmed up, STX continues to strengthen, but despite continuous positive news, CORE's price has long been stagnant.
Objectively speaking: there is no absolutely perfect option. Rollback can eliminate ghost chips but destroys the underlying consensus of the public chain, bringing another set of greater risks. The project team chose the lesser of two evils, but market funds are unwilling to pay for this choice.
4. Extended thoughts: public chain crises and the trade-offs of two repair solutions
- Rollback: short-term relief of token selling pressure, long-term sacrifice of blockchain immutability consensus;
- Hard fork only without rollback: preserves ledger history but leaves historical chip risks, continuously suppressing token price.
Many retail investors hope the project team will destroy ghost chips, but under the no-rollback solution, the project team has no authority to directly destroy tokens already legally transferred out of user addresses.
Summary
Hard fork is fixing the faucet to prevent future leaks; rollback is turning back time to erase past transactions.
CORE chose a hard fork forward upgrade, successfully stopping the vulnerability from being exploited further, but unable to erase the 69 million ghost tokens already released.
This choice preserved ledger history but destroyed the predictability of the token release model, becoming the root cause of subsequent price stagnation.
There is no perfect solution; every technical decision must be paid for by the secondary market.
💬 Interactive question: If CORE had chosen rollback back then and ghost chips disappeared, would the market situation be completely different now?
#BTCFi #CORE #OnChainReviewThe first time I bought crypto was on the day I helped a friend move. When he was resting, he took out his phone and glanced at it, saying he casually bought some yesterday and already made enough to pay for a meal. Hearing that made me itch inside. That night, I downloaded an app. After registering and struggling with the verification code that never came, I finally got in and was overwhelmed by all the charts on the screen. I first deposited a few hundred yuan, my hands trembling. I bought some $BTC. After buying, I kept watching it. When it went up a bit, I smiled; when it dropped a bit, I cursed. The next day, I found no big changes and was exhausted. Later, I heard $ETH could be used on-chain, so I joined the hype again. Transferring funds took a long time and the fees were high. At that time, I joined groups where people shouted "rush in." Whenever they shouted, I got itchy hands. Once I made a profit but didn’t sell, and all the gains disappeared. Another time, I panicked and sold when it dropped, only to see it rise again. I was so angry I couldn’t eat dinner well. $SOL was tried later with a small position. It’s really fast, with sharp drops and rises. You can laugh for a few minutes and be silent for a few minutes. I saw people showing off profits and others deleting the app. Gradually, I stopped checking groups and stopped believing in guaranteed profits. I only play with spare money, never borrow or go all in. I avoid what I don’t understand. I sleep when I should at night. If I miss out, I miss out. Don’t get cocky when you win, don’t get obsessed when you lose. Staying alive is more important than how much you make in one trade. This is my real feeling over the past few years. #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ Since 2015, after 11 years, the highest level of Tsinghua University has once again set foot on American soil for a state visit. What I see may not be diplomatic news, but an important catalyst for the US stock market #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ $QQQ $SPY
Why is this important for the US stock market? Because what the market fears most is not competition, but uncontrolled uncertainty. Trade, tariffs, rare earths, AI, and supply chains will all be key topics in this meeting. Morgan Stanley also lists trade, rare earths, and AI as core variables of market concern.
More importantly, the signals have already appeared: over the past year, the scale of US stocks held by investors in mainland China and Hong Kong has grown by 23%, exceeding $750 billion; meanwhile, US semiconductor stocks remain a significant capital inflow. This means that China-US competition will not eliminate capital demand for US innovation assets, but may instead further strengthen capital expenditure on AI, semiconductors, data centers, and next-generation technology infrastructure.
So, despite the Nasdaq repeatedly hitting new highs and prices being frighteningly high, I still remain optimistic about the US stock market. What will determine asset prices over the next decade is not only the macro cycle but also the speed of profit creation brought by technological innovation.Two wins, two losses, and a draw within the day
21 consecutive wins ended
Winning streaks are just rewards given by the market in phases, not a sign that the market trend is always correct. Maintain a calm mindset, respect the market, and stable trading habits are the foundation for long-term consistent profits.
Consecutive wins in trading are not about luck catching a surge, but the result of strictly following a trading system. Continuous profits can easily inflate one's mentality; many people start increasing their positions and chasing trades recklessly after a few consecutive wins, only to lose all profits in one go.
Before entering each trade, plan support and resistance, entry points, stop loss, and take profit in advance; do not trade based on feelings. During winning streaks, it is even more important to stick to discipline, maintain original position standards, and not get carried away by short-term victories.
Know how to enter in batches, take profits in batches, hold onto trend profits, and firmly set stop losses.
Hold when the market meets expectations, and decisively exit once the plan is broken; do not hold onto losing trades.
$BTC $📈 US Services PMI just came in at 58.7
Expected: 55.7
That's a full 3 points above forecast — and above the 56.5 line one trader flagged as the bullish threshold before the release
Most people will read this as a straight risk-on signal and move on $BTC
But strong services data cuts both ways — it also feeds the inflation narrative and shifts what the Fed does next
For BTC, the knee-jerk reaction is up. Whether it holds depends on how the rates market digests it
$ETH This time SOL finally didn't just drop a few cents, which spared me from false hope. It retreated from the previous 117.18 to 113.46, and I really breathed a sigh of relief😮💨 The short position opened at 106.43 is still open, with the page showing a floating profit and loss rate of -660.52%, and the 100 take-profit remains untouched.
I still have a concern about SOL's valuation: staking rewards more coins, but that doesn't mean all these returns are earned from business operations. According to the official mechanism, staking rewards include newly issued tokens, so they can't be fully regarded as income generated from on-chain user fees. This is the original mechanism, not a sudden negative factor appearing today.
My view is that you can't explain the price increase solely by the attractiveness of staking rewards while completely ignoring the new supply. Getting more coins and each coin becoming more valuable are two separate matters. My position is somewhat bearish; my worry is whether the market can absorb the chips that want to be cashed out once the demand for chasing the price rise cools down. However, new issuance doesn't mean immediate selling, so this concern still needs to be verified by subsequent buying and selling forces.
Currently, the capital flow hasn't fully turned to the bears. Farside data shows that on September 21 and 22, the US SOL spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of about $54.9 million. Buying is still coming in, so this price pullback can't be directly interpreted as "institutions starting to withdraw."
What I want to see next is whether the rebound can easily recover this drop. If it quickly pulls back near 117 again, this might just be a retracement during the upward process.$SAGA current price 0.04551, 24h +20.02%, trading volume 13.8M USDT, funding rate +0.0050%, fear and greed index 71 (greed). MA5=0.04699 has crossed above MA20=0.04310, MACD histogram turned positive +0.0003094, RSI 57.2 not overbought, but the amplitude of 30 K-lines is as high as 31.44%, Bollinger upper band 0.050183 is the nearest resistance currently.
Analysis: The bullish structure is established, but the funding rate turning positive and greed index at 71 indicate that chasing longs have started paying to hold positions, so there is a short-term risk of a wick to shake out longs; chasing highs is less favorable than waiting for a pullback. Funds are moving towards the long side but not firmly yet.
Entry reference 0.0430～0.0440, which is the pullback buying zone above MA20 and close to the Bollinger middle band support; Take profit 1 at 0.0500, corresponding to the first selling pressure near the Bollinger upper band; Take profit 2 at 0.0530, an extended target after breaking the upper band; Stop loss at 0.0405, breaking below MA20 and recent dense trading area invalidates the bullish logic. If the funding rate rises rapidly but price stagnates, actively reduce positions.
Also monitor concurrently: $BCH with large volume but MACD turning bearish and relatively weak, $LSK falling under negative funding rate, weaker than $SAGA.$ZEC perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1613.02, currently at 1580.22, floating profit +101.67%.
The logic is very simple: the 1613 whole number resistance was tested three times without breaking, volume decreased, clear top formation. Finally waited for the bearish candle to dump, then shorted. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1650. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Moved stop loss to 1600 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks below 1550, can hold for a bit more.
$BTC $ETH #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ Two wins and two losses or draws within the day
21 consecutive wins ended
Winning streaks are just rewards given by the market in phases, not a permanent indicator of market direction. Maintain a calm mindset, respect the market, and stable trading habits are the foundation for long-term consistent profits.
Consecutive wins in trading are not about luck catching sudden surges, but the result of strictly following a trading system. Continuous profits can easily inflate one's mentality; many people, after a few consecutive wins, start increasing position sizes and chasing trades recklessly, eventually losing all profits in one go.
Before entering each trade, plan support and resistance, entry points, stop loss, and take profit in advance; do not trade based on feelings. During winning streaks, it is even more important to stick to discipline, maintain original position standards, and not get carried away by short-term victories.
Know how to enter in batches, take profits in batches, hold onto trend profits, and firmly set stop losses.
Hold positions when the market meets expectations, and decisively exit once the plan is broken; do not hold onto losing trades.
$BTC The Core Logic of ETH Now
Currently, ETH is around $2,760. Since early September, it has experienced a round of rally and sideways consolidation, then broke through the previous key resistance again. Reuters' technical analysis points out that ETH has broken through the key level around $2,661.5 and formed a typical "flag breakout" pattern. Reuters
More importantly, capital is starting to align with the price.
US Spot ETH ETF:
Net inflow of about $270 million on September 21
Continued net inflow of about $162 million on September 22
Nearly $432 million in total over two consecutive days. Farside Investors+1
So now it cannot be simply understood as:
"ETH has risen too much, it will fall."
Because while the price is rising, institutional capital inflow is also strengthening.
However, the real focus is not $2,700, but $2,800.
I will divide the current ETH into several key zones:
First resistance: around $2,800
This is the most immediate dividing line between bulls and bears.
ETH has now reached this area, and the latest analysis from CMC also regards $2,800–$2,805 as an important short-term resistance. If it breaks through and holds effectively, the market will start to focus on the $2,925 area in the next phase. CoinMarketCap
Second target: $3,050
Reuters' technical analysis gives the flag target at about $3,050. Reuters
So if ETH can break through $2,800 with volume and not just spike up and quickly fall back, then:
$2,800 → $2,925 → $3,050
will be a natural observation path.
Conversely, when does it become dangerous?
I think the most important thing now is not to predict whether it will rise or fall, but to see if the breakout fails.
First line: around $2,660
This is the previous breakout level.
If it falls back below $2,660 and fails to recover consecutively, then this breakout needs to be re-verified.
Second line: $2,560–2,600
This is a more important defense zone.
Reuters regards $2,560–2,565 as a level bulls need to watch; if it further breaks below $2,350–2,360, it means this rally structure may suffer more obvious damage. Reuters
So I will not just short ETH because it has risen.
What is really worth cautioning is:
Breakout failure at $2,800 → fall back to $2,660 → then break below $2,560.
If such consecutive breakdowns occur, the logic will clearly shift from "continuation after breakout" to "pullback after false breakout."
There is also a very critical factor: ETFs
This is even more worth watching than the candlestick itself.
From September 15–17, ETH ETFs saw significant capital outflows, including a single-day net outflow of about $224 million on September 16; but on September 18, inflows resumed at about $144 million, reaching $270 million on September 21, and $162 million again on September 22. Farside Investors
This indicates one thing:
Institutional capital has not shown sustained withdrawal.
On the contrary, it has clearly flowed back in the past two days.
So the most interesting thing about ETH now is:
Price is breaking out, and ETF capital is returning.
This is different in nature from a rally driven purely by retail sentiment.
But it cannot be directly concluded as "must rise," because ETF flows fluctuate intraday, and macro markets, BTC trends, and interest rate environments will still affect ETH.
If doing short-term trading, I would watch this "script table":
ETH trend market signals: volume increase and stable hold confirm $2,800 breakout; focus on $2,925
Around $2,800, repeated oscillation with ongoing bull-bear battle
Fall back to $2,660 requires breakout re-verification
Break below $2,560 indicates short-term structure weakening
Break above $2,925 market starts eyeing around $3,050
Around $3,050 enters stronger resistance/profit-taking zone
In summary:
For ETH now, I prefer to understand it as:
"The breakout has happened, now waiting for the market to prove this breakout is real."
Looking up: $2,800 → $2,925 → $3,050;
Looking down: $2,660 → $2,560.
Especially worth noting is that price breakout + ETF large inflows for two consecutive days are forming resonance, which is currently a bullish aspect. Farside Investors+1
But if you are preparing to trade, don't just focus on "whether ETH can still rise"—whether $2,800 can hold effectively and whether ETF capital can continue flowing in after the breakout may be more valuable than simply guessing the top.
The above is market information and technical structure analysis, not investment advice. $BTC We originally planned to do a short sell around 86500 in the afternoon and then go long, but the market kept falling with no sign of stopping, so we held both long and short positions until 84576, gaining 1924 points. Currently, we can see that after the market surged to 87385, the bulls' momentum weakened, and the price has been continuously falling, now down to around 84110. However, from a larger timeframe perspective, this is still a deep pullback after an uptrend and does not yet directly indicate the end of the bullish trend. The key now is to observe the support strength in this area; do not short just because you see a big bearish candle. If the decline stops here and a reversal candlestick forms, it is still a pullback buying opportunity. The strategy is to wait for signs of stabilization in the market and consider buying on dips based on support; once support is effectively broken down
BTC: Suggested to buy around 83600=83300, target near 86000
ETH: Suggested to buy around 2630-2610, target near 2750 $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $BTC $ETH
In one week
climbed out of the pit of a 50% drop
After this wave of bulls finishes eating, it turns short
The overall market is also moving as expected
Although the execution was quite flawed
But generally being right was enough to turn the account around
Feels like the frontline negotiations might collapse
US Treasury yields feel very bad here
Crude oil is starting to rise again
The market is also just reaching a high point
So directly coordinating to enter a structural adjustment
Whether this is a major structural correction or a minor structural pullback
Both are possible
Take it step by step
But the big idea going forward is still to wait for opportunities to go long
Also have to say the key to climbing out of this pit
Is staying away from $ZEC 🟠 📊 第一次突破往往最吸引眼球，但真正能够反映市场力量的，是突破之后的价格表现。 📈 BTC/ETH 上升 → BTC 相对强势 📉 BTC/ETH 下降 → ETH 相对强势 👀 不要只盯着第一根突破 K 线。 接下来几个交易时段的价格结构、成交量和相对强弱，才更值得观察。 ⚡ 突破只是行情的开始，后续延续才是确认信号。 $BTC $ETH #BTC87K #Bitcoin #Ethereum #BTCETH #CryptoMarket$BTC perpetual 100x short position, opened at 85466.5, now at 84190.3, floating profit +149.32%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 85,500 level was tested repeatedly but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was selling pressure. After confirming the resistance was effective, I decisively shorted on the bearish candle. Using 100x leverage, the position size was pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +149.32%, and the trailing stop has been moved to 84,500. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $PENG perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.010192, currently 0.009688, floating profit +247.25%.
Around 0.0102, the price hit resistance and struggled for a long time, then a large bearish candle directly broke the short-term support. I followed the trend to short, with a stop loss set above 0.0105. The 50x leverage position is very small, but the movement was more intense than expected, the percentage gain more than doubled.
Moved the stop loss up to 0.0099, now watching if 0.0095 can be broken.
$ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #BTC surged to $87000, and the total crypto market cap returned to 3 trillion
Is this pullback a mid-cycle shakeout or a phase top?
First, let's review the underlying logic of this rally: earlier, continuous net inflows from spot ETFs provided support, combined with concentrated short covering, pushing BTC all the way up to around 87000. After consecutive rallies, market sentiment entered the greed zone, with many traders adding leverage to long positions at high levels, and open interest contracts kept rising, accumulating substantial unrealized long profits.
After reaching the high levels, changes began to appear
1. Marginal weakening of macro expectations, the market reassessed the pace of rate cuts, US Treasury yields rebounded, suppressing risk asset valuations, and the liquidity expectations that originally drove the rally started to cool down.
2. Concentrated profit-taking at high levels. Long-term holders who held coins throughout started to take profits in batches at new highs, creating the first layer of selling pressure. Once the price stalled, the long contracts piled up at high levels triggered stop losses, and chained liquidations further amplified the decline, which the market calls concentrated deleveraging. This explains why the pullback speed is much faster than the rise.
3. ETF fund inflows slowed down, no longer sustaining large net inflows, weakening institutional buying momentum. The market lost its core incremental support, making it difficult to maintain high levels relying only on retail and contract funds.
The key dividing line between a healthy pullback and a trend reversal is the critical support plus spot ETF fund flows.
If after the dip, ETF funds resume net inflows and support holds, this round is just a mid-rally shakeout, clearing out high-level leverage, and there will be opportunities to challenge previous highs again.
If support breaks down with volume and ETFs continue net outflows, the adjustment cycle will lengthen and it will no longer be a simple short-term pullback.
During this pullback, the liquidation scale in the contract market was huge, sweeping out many short-term longs. But long-term holding addresses did not sell off massively, on-chain chips did not transfer, and the mid-to-long-term bullish structure has not been broken for now #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ $BTC Ergou thought about a few days ago when SanDisk was around 1580, a guy left a comment under my post telling me to go long. I was afraid it would drop back to 1200, so I didn't dare.
Damn, I regret it now, it's already at 1900, showing momentum to reach 2000!
Rosenblatt initiated a "Buy" rating on SNDK with a target price of $2400, closing up 6.82% last night. Core logic: AI data centers driving NAND demand revaluation, combined with the catalyst of inclusion in the S&P 100.
At the 1900 level, it feels best not to chase longs; let's see if it can pull back. You can lightly add one more position.
The next key validation point is Micron's earnings report on October 1st, to see if AI demand can translate into actual NAND orders and profits.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元
#AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 ETH has recently shown a "rally and pullback, range digestion" pattern. Spot prices are fluctuating around $2740–$2760, having briefly touched above $2800 on September 21, then retreating to around $2700 by the 23rd; Grayscale's staked ETH mini ETF simultaneously dropped from $26.5 to $25.3, reflecting a cooling of market sentiment. On the driving side, the US spot ETH ETF recorded a net inflow of about $270 million on September 21, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing over $100 million, but mid-month saw a single-day outflow exceeding $140 million, and on the 23rd, nearly $80 million net outflow was reported, indicating unstable institutional flows. On-chain, Ethereum's TVL remains the highest among public chains, Gas fees stay low, but DEX daily volume has slightly declined; L2 scaling has diverted activity, weakening the mainnet's burn elasticity compared to the former "ultrasound money" narrative.
In the short term, $2700 is the first support; if broken, look to $2600–$2560. On the upside, $2800–$2810 is a dense resistance zone; only a strong volume-based break and hold there can target $2900–$3000. If BTC retests 85,000, ETFs see renewed net outflows, or US Treasury yields rise, ETH's high beta characteristic will amplify the pullback. Trading should focus on swing strategies: buy dips without breaking lows, add on confirmed break and retest, and avoid chasing highs;Have you ever wondered: Why can you only buy 0.01 shares of Tesla but not 0.01 houses? Because the entry barriers for traditional assets are too high. A house costs several million, a government bond requires a minimum investment of $100, and private credit is only open to qualified investors. It's not that ordinary people don't want to allocate funds, but they simply can't get in. RWA is exactly what it solves. Layer One: What exactly is RWA? RWA, short for Real World Assets, refers to the tokenization of real-world assets. Officially speaking, it uses encryption technology and distributed ledgers to convert asset ownership and income rights into tokens, which are then issued and traded. In plain terms: real assets like houses, government bonds, gold, and stocks are turned into tokens on the chain that can be split, traded, and held. Tokens themselves have no intrinsic value; their value comes from the real assets behind them. Token price movements depend on changes in the price of the underlying asset. Layer Two: Why is this important? Under the traditional model, buying US Treasury bonds requires opening an account through a brokerage, waiting for T+1 settlement, and fixed trading hours. Buying real estate requires several million to reach the threshold. After tokenization, Treasury bonds can be traded 24/×7 with settlement in seconds. Houses can be split into $100 per unit, and rental income is automatically distributed by share. This is the core value of RWA: lowering barriers, increasing liquidity, and overcoming time and geographic limitations. Layer 3: What real RWA cases are there now? Treasury bonds. BlackRock's BUThe first time I heard people talking about crypto was while waiting for a delivery at the neighborhood gate.
Two guys were chatting animatedly.
One said he just made a few thousand yesterday.
I pretended to look at my phone but actually had my ears perked up.
When I got home, I searched how to buy.
After downloading the app and registering for a long time,
I waited for the verification code, wanting to throw my phone.
Once inside, the screen was full of red and green lines.
I looked for ten minutes but still didn’t understand.
I first deposited a little money, my fingers trembling.
Bought some $BTC.
After buying, I stared at the screen.
When it went up a bit, I grinned.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless.
My lunch got cold, untouched.
At night, lying in bed, I still checked my phone.
The next day, seeing little movement, I was exhausted first.
Later, I heard $ETH could be used on-chain.
I joined the fun again.
Waiting a long time to transfer funds,
The fees made me grit my teeth.
At that time, I joined several groups.
Every day someone in the group shouted to rush in.
I got itchy hands hearing that.
Afraid of missing out, I often bought at the top.
Once I made a profit but didn’t sell.
Wanted to wait longer, and all the profits vanished.
Another time, the drop made me panic.
Just sold, and it slowly rose back.
I was so mad I slapped my thigh.
Later, I tried $SOL with a small position.
It’s really fast.
When it pumps, it’s fierce.
In minutes it can make you smile,
In minutes it can make you shut up.
I’ve seen others show off profits,
And others lose so much they delete the app.
Gradually, I stopped checking groups.
I don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
Only play with spare money.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t go all in.
Don’t touch projects I don’t understand, even if free.
Sleep when it’s time to sleep at night.
If I miss out, I miss out.
Don’t get cocky when winning.
Don’t get obsessed when losing.
Being able to keep going is more important than how much you make in one trade.
This is my most genuine feeling after years of messing around. #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ $ARB perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.23433, now at 0.22407, floating profit +218.92%.
The logic is very simple: the 0.234 level was tested three times without breaking through, volume decreased, clear top pattern. Finally waited for the bearish candle to dump, then shorted. 50x leverage, stop loss at 0.24. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Moved stop loss to 0.228 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks below 0.22, can hold a bit longer.
$ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Called it four hours ago: 84K was never tested, so it wasn't support
yet. Now it is being tested — 85,940 to 84,000 on 5x volume, 1H RSI
at 28.
First touch, not a defended level: this zone has only been tagged
twice in 60 days. Watch the 4H close. Above 84K with a long wick and
it earns the title. Below, and 82K is next.I've been thinking about adjusting my holdings... Holding physical gold is truly exhausting. Watching coins like ZEC and LIT surge sharply while my XAUT$XAUT keeps drifting downwards, it's hard not to feel envious. But gold and those coins are completely different species; you shouldn't apply sprint standards to a marathon runner.
ZEC$ZEC has institutional allocation logic due to its privacy track, and LIT$LIT is supported by real business and buyback burns, so their rises are justified and flexible. But gold inherently can't offer that kind of flexibility. Its market cap is too large, and building positions with big funds is a slow process. Plus, with current interest rate hikes and a strong dollar pressing down hard, it can only grind slowly at the bottom. The support comes from continuous buying by global central banks and ETFs, not short-term sentiment. In August, global gold ETF holdings hit a record high, and China's imports in the first eight months exceeded a thousand tons. This money isn't in for quick profits; it's for allocation.
So if you choose gold, you have to accept its slow-heating nature. It's naturally not for making quick money but for bottom-line hedging. If you can't handle this pace, better adjust your portfolio early and switch to coins with logical backing. Trying to hold both ends often results in holding neither.
My current stance is simple. Hold physical gold as ballast, invest regularly as planned, and don't obsess over daily gain rankings. For coins like ZEC and LIT with logical foundations, if you want to play, take a small separate position to bet on their flexibility, don't mix them together. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is your clear understanding of what you're betting on. Don't let envy disrupt your rhythm; hold what you understand. #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ @OKX星球 OKB has shifted from intense volatility following the August burn event to high-level consolidation over the past month. OKX conducted a one-time burn of approximately 65.25 million tokens from historical buybacks and reserves, locking a total supply of 21 million, and has deactivated OKTChain, positioning X Layer as the core public chain. OKB now undertakes Gas fees, payment, and ecological staking functions, with supply scarcity and an ecological closed loop forming medium- to long-term support. Looking at the September market, after a pullback to $108.5 on the 16th, it rebounded, surged to around $123 on the 19th, closed near $123 on the 22nd, and was analyzed in the range of $120–$124 on the 23rd, with $130 as the next resistance; if $120 fails to hold, look back to $113–$115.
Short-term strength is clearly driven by the broader market: Bitcoin broke through 85,000 on the 21st, once approaching 87,000, with ETF inflows and short covering improving risk appetite, leading platform tokens to rise; however, on the 23rd, BTC fell below 86,000, and about $292 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, indicating leveraged funds remain fragile. Going forward, the core focus for OKB is twofold: the TVL, active addresses, Pay and RWA implementation speed of X Layer, and whether BTC can hold steadily above 85,000. If ecological data continues to improve, there is a basis for valuation reappraisal; if relying only on narrative and a market pullback, high-level profit-taking could trigger a deep correction. Overall, it is advisable to focus on swing trading and position control, avoiding chasing highs. A while ago, I tried on-chain lending.
I deposited some stablecoins, hoping to earn some interest.
Seeing the annualized rate looked good, I got a bit eager.
Then I borrowed some out and went to buy other coins.
Looking back now, that step was just me causing trouble for myself.
Using $AAVE is pretty smooth.
The interface isn’t complicated, just a few clicks and it’s done.
I also looked at $COMP, but the rules are convoluted.
After studying for a long time, I still didn’t understand how the rewards are calculated.
$MKR is stable, but I didn’t dare touch it.
I was afraid I’d run into a black swan event as soon as I got in.
Collateral ratio seems fine normally.
But when the price shakes, the health factor drops.
Whenever my phone rings, I’m scared it’s a liquidation notice.
If I top up, I’m unwilling to give up.
If I don’t, I’m afraid of losing everything.
Those days, I couldn’t sleep well.
Later, I hurried to repay part of it, then I felt at ease.
I didn’t earn much interest, but my heart rate definitely got trained.
On-chain is indeed transparent, but transparency doesn’t mean no risk.
No matter how good the contract code is, it can’t withstand reckless operation.
Now I’m more indifferent about lending.
I’d rather earn less than stay up late watching the market.
Those annual rates in the tens of percent mostly have traps behind them.
You want the interest, others want your principal.
It sounds harsh, but it’s true.
Now I just put in a little, as an experience.
No more, no leverage.
If I make money, I buy a burger; if I lose, it’s not a big deal.
There are many opportunities in this circle, but even more traps.
If you can control your hands, you’ve already won half.
The rest, leave it to luck.$LINK is currently at an unrealized loss of -60.57%, with a liquidation price of 10.5485. Today I reduced the leverage from 20x to 10x, then added to my position near the current price — after adding, it dropped another 3%. *
Why I still added:
① Long-term logic hasn't changed
② Position is not crowded (fee rate 0.0037%, basis -0.047%)
③ Large holders covering shorts (0.795 → 0.922).
But there is one uncomfortable data point today: yesterday liquidations were mostly shorts being liquidated (1:5), today it switched to longs being liquidated — $BTC 2.35:1, $LINK 5.82:1; LINK open interest increased 5.9% in 24h: positions are increasing during the drop.
What to watch tonight:
✅ 21:45 US PMI preliminary much better than expected (Manufacturing 57 vs expected 53.6; input prices hit highest since October 2022) → rate cut narrative delayed;
✅ 22:05 Bullard also hawkish (inflation not clearly moving toward 2%, may need further hikes);
⏳ 22:30 EIA crude oil inventory. Background is that the rate hike cycle is not over (already raised to 3.75%–4.00%). LINK has no project-level events tonight, fully driven by macro factors.
I’m watching: LINK 11.98 (EMA20) and 10.607; BTC 85,273. Will reduce if broken. Before the rest of the data comes out tonight, I will not add more positions. $OFC entry at 0.010235, mark at 0.0079, 20x short, +456.27%.
On the OFC pool side, depth hasn't synchronized with price action to recover. Slippage widened before and after the spike, and subsequently TVL/token one-sided balance hasn't shown obvious health improvement; routing remains concentrated, not dispersed across multiple points for absorption. The sharp peak in the middle of the chart followed by a steady decline is due to buy orders retreating and mark price reverting, not new market making.
There are on-chain transfers, but evidence for entering the pool/locking or long-term holding is weak, more like repositioning of existing holdings. In positions, watch the pool's tick concentration, buy/sell order recovery, and whether there is sustained real swap flow. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Tonight (September 23) Beijing time, the world's most important 20-minute speech was not from Wall Street, but from the United Nations headquarters in New York. First, Pezeshiziyan has already taken the podium at the General Assembly. CNN, Al Jazeera, CCTV News, and other media confirmed that Iranian President Pezeshiziyan will deliver a speech at the General Assembly debate on the morning of September 23 local time (Beijing time tonight). Global Times quoted his statement before departure: "At the UN General Assembly, I will speak about the injustice of the Iranian people, the crimes of the enemy, and the distrust they have caused." Sohu's in-depth analysis provides key background: this is the president of a belligerent country who has set foot on enemy soil. CNN commented that this situation "has almost no precedent." Although the U.S. has allowed the U.S. to allow the UN as a host state, it refused to sign its media team, reduced the size of the delegation, restricted its activities, and banned the purchase of luxury goods—restrictions everywhere. Pezeshitsian is staying at the Millennium Hilton Hotel, and he can only travel between the hotel and the United Nations headquarters (just a few blocks apart). Second, the content of his speech will directly determine the direction of oil prices tonight. Commentators have analyzed that Pezeshitsian faces a "dual task":( 1) externally, he must argue that "Iran is a victim of aggression, and Iran's actions are self-defense," and win international sympathy; (2) Internally, he must demonstrate "strength rather than compromise," appeasing hardliners like the Revolutionary Guard. If he chooses "accusation + retention"—accusing U.S. military actions but leaving room for negotiation→ oil prices will continue to decline (WTI has since 97).$ZEC is taking off again and again 🚀
It's directly breaking through the atmosphere, probably heading to the moon.
It taught me a lesson. I used to think about shorting at high levels, but the more I shorted, the stronger it got, pushing all the way up. Alright, changing my mindset completely, joining the bulls.
Looking at the market, the whale long positions are alarmingly high. In the past 4 hours, the whole network liquidated $13.4 million, all fueling this rally. Too bad for those shorts.
Now the strategy is very clear.
Current long position floating profit is +4662.42 $USDT, with a return rate of 336.90%.
No more going against the trend to catch the top. Every pullback from now on is a chance to go long.
$BTC
#ZEC whale closed 38,000 short positions, losing over $35 million #BTC surged to $87,000, crypto total market cap back above 3 trillion #Positive signals from 3-hour US-Iran talks?The NYSE's own tokenization platform started back in January last year, but no one really used it.
Now they've come up with a plan to partner with Blockchain.com, which has over 44 million users. This time, by leveraging someone else's channel, they've reached retail investors in over 70 countries worldwide, effectively bypassing broker thresholds.
However, they only signed a letter of intent, no binding agreement, no launch date yet, and trading still awaits regulatory approval. Right now, it's just a rumor, so many people are hyping that the NYSE is going big into crypto, but they also hold shares in OKX?
But the real implementation is data exchange.
ICE sells Blockchain.com's crypto market data to its own clients, while Blockchain.com relays real-time NYSE stock prices. This is a hundred times more practical than letting you trade US stocks.
However, tokenized stocks are not the same as real stocks.
This isn't listed on the NYSE main exchange; it's running on their own digital ATS, basically a shady exchange.
Because they want to bypass regulation but still maintain equal rights and dividends for the same shares, this is the only way to do it. The core selling point is that you can buy no matter where you live, without restrictions.
Currently, neither company has given a launch date. The next step is to obtain approval from the regulatory body for the NYSE digital trading platform.
After all this, the real question is: what does this mean for the crypto world?
44 million crypto users now have a compliant gateway to US stocks, and the wall between on-chain assets and traditional stocks has become thinner.Short squeeze ≠ new trend: Three positions, don't chase
The three major mainstream coins have switched from "weak recovery" to short covering + ETF capital inflow, with the total crypto market cap returning to 3 trillion. The numbers are lively, but the biggest risk right now is not a major pullback, but the market mistaking the short squeeze for a new trend—chasing longs and adding positions at 86,000, 2,760, and 119, exactly where others are closing their positions.
$BTC | Strongest 300-day recovery, but the lead is at resistance
Reclaimed the long-term moving average, the original short-heavy zone at 83,000–86,000 has flipped to short-term support.
Support: 85,200 / 84,000 / 83,000
Resistance: 86,800 / 87,400 / 88,000–90,000
Mid-term bias is bullish, but current price is better suited for waiting for a pullback, not chasing highs.
$ETH | Institutions accumulating, 2,700 is the key level
On-chain and institutional funds continue to enter. Holding 2,700 → 2,800–3,000 can still be tested; losing it → look for support near 2,640.
Support: 2,700 / 2,640–2,560 Resistance: 2,800 / 2,890 / 3,000
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 # CoinDesk's real-time update headline today is just one sentence, but it's packed with information: "Bitcoin slips under $86,000 as money rotates into BCH and ZEC." First, capital rotation is happening. BTC fell back to around 85,500 tonight (down about 1.3% from 86,600 at midday), while BCH quoted 270 (+3.28%, boosted by CME October futures listing, analyzed in Chapter 80), and ZEC at 1,498 (+3.61%). This is no coincidence—when BTC is blocked in the 86,000-87,500 range, short-term profit-taking isn't leaving the crypto market, but rather 'down-rotating' to lagged altcoins. ZEC is especially noteworthy: within three months, it surged from 400 to 1,500 (+275%), and Ember monitored a long ZEC whale profited $8.29 million in one month (as of September 18). This "BTC sideways → altcoin catch-up" pattern is a classic script in the latter half of every bull market. Second, "rotation" itself is a warning signal. 21 Economic Net's in-depth report today quoted Yu Jianing (President of Uweb Business School): "Bitcoin and other digital assets are highly financialized, and prices are unlikely to escape cyclical patterns: every rise must fall. After consecutive rises, the market needs to digest profit-taking and adjust positions." His core view is: BThe first time I heard someone talk about crypto was while smoking downstairs at the company.
He said he made half a month's salary yesterday.
I said not to brag, but inside I was already itching.
That night I went home and downloaded an app.
Spent a long time registering but the verification code never came.
Once inside, the screen was full of red and green, and my head was spinning.
I first deposited a little money, my palms were sweating.
Bought some $BTC.
After buying, I just stared at that line.
When it went up a bit, I smiled foolishly.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed.
I even got up in the middle of the night to check my phone.
The next day, it basically hadn’t moved, and I was so tired I felt sick.
Later I heard you could play on-chain with $ETH.
I joined the fun and transferred some, waited a long time.
The fees were so high I was grinding my teeth.
At that time, I joined several groups and watched people shout “rush” every day.
Whenever someone shouted, I got itchy hands, afraid of missing out.
Once I made a profit but didn’t sell, wanting to be greedy for more.
In the end, all the profits flew away and I even lost money.
Another time, it dropped so much I panicked and sold at a loss, then it went up again.
I was so angry I couldn’t eat dinner well.
$SOL was a small position I tried later.
It’s really fast and the drops are fierce.
In minutes it can make you smile or shut you up.
I’ve seen others show off profits and others delete the app.
Gradually, I stopped looking at groups and stopped believing in guaranteed profits.
Only play with spare money, don’t borrow or go all in.
Don’t touch projects you don’t understand, even if they’re free.
Sleep when it’s time to sleep, miss out if you must.
Don’t get cocky when you win, don’t get obsessed when you lose.
Being able to survive is more important than how much you make in one trade.
This is the most real feeling I’ve had after messing around for these years.#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ Cryptocurrency whale Garrett Jin opened a long position of 1,330 BTC at the price level of $78,057 on September 18, valued at approximately $107 million. Analysts estimate he may further increase the position to 2,450 BTC, with a total exposure exceeding $190 million. Meanwhile, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to accumulate, holding a total of 846,000 bitcoins as of September 20, with a total holding cost of about $63.8 billion, an average price of approximately $75,416, accounting for about 4% of the total bitcoin issuance. When the largest publicly listed holder and top on-chain whales are both heavily building positions at the current price level, their goal is clearly not a 10% short-term profit. Institutions are locking in, retail investors are watching. By the time they start chasing, the price will already be on another level. $BTC