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$ZEC is really quite interesting.
Winklevoss just submitted a spot ETF application, with long-term compliance expectations fully priced in, but the market hasn't rushed to rally; instead, it has been consolidating with low volume around 1300-1330. This indicates that funds are waiting to see the SEC's stance, and no one dares to accumulate early.
Right now, it's a game of positive expectations providing a floor, but the technicals remain weak. Wait for a volume breakout and a firm hold above 1330 to confirm the direction. On-chain, sellers are retreating. Glassnode points out that the trend of "whales net depositing to exchanges" that started in the summer and lasted for more than three months has ended.
This round of sell-off lasted twice as long as similar trends in 2023 and ended in late August. Since then, the fund flow has remained negative—coins are leaving exchanges rather than flooding in to queue for sale.
Binance data is even more intuitive: in the week ending September 27, there was a net outflow of 23,137 BTC, the highest since June 2023; from September 20 to now, Binance's Bitcoin reserves have decreased by nearly 40,000 BTC. Starting October 1, whales added about 14,335 BTC in holdings, equivalent to approximately $1.22 billion.
Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have cumulatively accumulated over 110,000 BTC since mid-July; addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have also increased holdings by about 41,000 BTC in the past ten days. On the other side, the 30-day rolling scale of stablecoins transferred by whales to Binance rose from $21.7 billion to $30.5 billion, an increase of about 40%.
The capital side confirms this simultaneously. The US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $241 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of positive inflows. BlackRock's IBIT attracted $450 million in a single week and remains the absolute main force; Fidelity's FBTC, on the other hand, saw a net outflow of $168 million. #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 🔥 FOMC MINUTES AHEAD — WILL THE FED SIGNAL ANOTHER HIKE?
Crypto Circle Midday Market Update
1. 📉 Market Pressure
$BTC slipped below $84,000, while $ETH dropped toward $2,610. $XRP, $SOL and other major alts also weakened as risk appetite faded. Bitcoin briefly traded near $83,840, with $83K now an important short-term line for bulls.
2. ⚠️ Leverage Flush
Crypto derivatives saw a sharp wave of forced selling, with more than $400M in leveraged longs liquidated within roughly one hour during the latest sell-off. Heavy long positioning is being cleared, increasing short-term volatility and reducing excess leverage.
3. 🏦 Fed & Macro
The September FOMC minutes are due today, following the Fed’s 25 bps rate hike in September. Markets are currently pricing only around a 20.5% probability of another October hike, down sharply from earlier expectations. The minutes could reveal whether policymakers still favor additional tightening later this year.
4. 🛢️ Oil & Geopolitical Risk
Middle East tensions and supply concerns are keeping crude elevated. Brent is around $101.40, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5.3%. A stronger dollar, rising yields and expensive oil are creating a difficult backdrop for crypto and other risk assets.
5. 🌟 Altcoin Spotlight
Solana meme coin $ZCAT surged roughly 76% in 24 hours, pushing its market cap above $68M and highlighting the extreme rotation into high-beta meme assets.
6. 🔗 Cardano Ecosystem Update
Cardano launched CIP-0113 on mainnet, introducing programmable tokens that can embed KYC, sanctions screening and transfer restrictions directly into native assets — a notable development for regulated tokenization and RWAs.
🎯 Trading Focus
BTC $83K–$84K remains the critical defense zone. Holding it could allow a rebound toward $86K–$87K, while a decisive break below $83K would increase downside risk toward $80K.
Tonight’s FOMC minutes are the major catalyst: a dovish tone could support BTC, while renewed hawkish guidance may strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto further.The market noticeably thinned out before the Fed minutes. Bitcoin is oscillating between $85,000 and $86,000, currently around $85,344, neither rising nor falling. Ethereum weakened to 2,688, with no willingness from funds to take over. Weak employment data lowered rate hike expectations, but Middle East disturbances suppressed risk appetite. In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations of $142.5 million, indicating significant divergence among leveraged funds at this level; the volatility is not over.
GRIFFAIN is currently priced at 0.0233020, still above the support moving average, and buying volume has not dissipated. However, the MACD shows a bearish crossover at a high level, indicating a short-term need for a pullback confirmation. On the liquidation map, the 0.0210 to 0.0220 zone has thick long order liquidity, while liquidation pressure on short orders is more concentrated above 0.0260. Under this structure, the probability of a pullback before moving upward is higher; once the long orders below are cleared, a rebound to sweep the 0.0260 short orders will gain momentum.
Just finished delivering food to the seventh floor, squatting in the hallway watching the market, with debt collection calls still buzzing. The strategy is clear: place longs between 0.0218 and 0.0224, defend at 0.0205, and take profit between 0.0257 and 0.0262.
$GRIFFAIN
#OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资
@OKX星球 SpaceX has pushed the AI computing power arms race to a new level.
On October 7, it was reported that SpaceX is seeking to raise about $40 billion to purchase Nvidia's AI chips, with about $10 billion coming from bank loans and $30 billion planned through investment-grade debt, with Apollo leading the arrangements. The deal is expected to be completed as early as 2027.
What truly deserves attention here is not just how many chips SpaceX has purchased, but that AI computing power is entering a phase of "debt financing expansion."
The conduction logic is very clear:
SpaceX financing → large-scale purchases of NVIDIA chips → expansion of data center computing power → growth in AI computing demand → continued increase in NVIDIA chip demand → more capital flowing into AI infrastructure.
But there is also a risk here: SpaceX is not buying chips entirely with cash, but rather amplifying capital expenditures through debt. Previously, SpaceX had issued $25 billion in bonds, and the market has long been concerned about its debt and high capital expenditures.
Therefore, this news is both a positive demand for NVIDIA and a sign that AI infrastructure is increasingly dependent on financing capabilities.
My judgment is that the most direct short-term beneficiaries will still be NVIDIA and the AI computing power supply chain, but what the market really needs to observe is whether these massive capital investments can generate sufficient computing power rental income and cash flow in the future.
If AI demand continues to surge, financing expansion will form a positive cycle; If AI computing power investment...I’ve been emphasizing the short side all along, and the prediction played out—but I honestly didn’t expect $BTC and $ETH to crash this quickly. I’ve already closed part of my short positions to lock in profits. As I mentioned earlier, US Treasury yields and the US dollar continue to strengthen, while the Federal Reserve remains highly likely to keep rates elevated or even maintain a more hawkish stance. Add continued ETF outflows, and the setup for a major move was clearly building. $BTC has $NMR's strong momentum continues, but the risk of overcrowding is also rising
$NMR is up 41.74% in 24 hours, currently priced at 16.98. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 60 and 82 respectively. The strength is real, and so is the overcrowding. The question is not whether it can continue to rise, but who is willing to catch it on the first pullback.
Putting emotions aside, the structural information is very specific. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 16.1445, currently strong; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 14.3196, also currently strong. The short-term cycle reveals changes, while the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of overcrowding; when they conflict, beware of fluctuations. You can't just pick the side that benefits you.
The task for the strong side is clear: first, firmly hold above the 1-hour resistance at 18.99, then observe whether the 4-hour resistance near 18.99 can still maintain support. If it only briefly breaks through during the session and quickly returns to the range, the so-called breakout lacks the crucial second half.Many people ask whether $CELO can go against the wind. This question itself carries the expectation that it will suddenly erupt in a slump and become the exception. But those who truly understand Celo will tell you that headwinds have never been obstacles it must overcome, but the reason for its existence. Since its inception, Celo was not designed for tailwinds. It targets cross-border payments, inclusive finance, stablecoin settlements, and the most efficient areas in traditional financial systems. These tracks have never lacked headwinds. Regulatory uncertainty, insufficient liquidity, and hard user habits to change. Celo's choice to take root here means it must learn to survive in headwinds, rather than wait for the wind to stop. Let's first look at fundamental resilience. Celo delivered a solid report card in the third quarter of 2026. Network revenue grew 21% quarter-on-quarter. After the implementation of CELOccelerate's tokenomics, 100% of last quarter's net income returned to the community, with 8.5 million CELO repurchased since April, and buybacks increasing every two weeks. Within 90 days after the proposal was approved, fee revenue grew by 280%, a year-on-year increase of 104%. These are not promises for the future, but on-chain facts that have already happened. Repurchases are not one-time events, but ongoing programmatic actions. As long as the network generates revenue, buy-ins will happen. The foundation of stablecoin payments is Celo's strongest moat. Celo currently processes 28% of all USDT transfers on the blockchain, and by weekly active users, it is Tether's largest distributionThat batch of BNB from FTX, now the account holder is listed as the US government 😂Why am I excited? Because a trillion-dollar overbuilt data center is creating an oversupply of computing power for the market. Computing power is cheap, so there are more agents, stronger agents, capable of handling more complex tasks. That $100-per-month agent application will become $1 per month. So the bursting of the AI bubble, along with cheaper computing power and truly useful agent solutions, is a perfect scenario for FLOP.$STX That Muneeb Ali is back, saying he plans to do five things in his first 30 days in office, including institutional business, simplifying the mainnet... a bunch of big words.
My first reaction: It's good that he's back, but the first shot fired by the returning CEO is "I want to simplify XXX," a scene I've seen too many times.
The last time I heard a similar statement, I held on to a project for three more months, and it ended in a mess. Whether he can deliver in these 30 days, no one knows; I only know I won't pay for a PPT.
Current price is 0.4, up more than 20% in 7 days. It's okay to wait for the story, but don't throw your position all in just for the story.
Don't FOMO. $STX $FIL has gone completely crazy! 😱 It peaked near 1.21, rising 8.75% in one day! It actually formed an independent trend despite the weak overall market! 🤔️
It feels like this surge isn’t random. The coins from the project's early linear unlock phase, which were distributed over about six years, are expected to be basically fully released by mid-October. After that, the daily new circulating supply is expected to decrease by about 70%, significantly easing the pressure of continuous selling. Frogman had $4 million stolen, feels like an offline setup?
Frogman's FOMO account's two wallets were almost emptied simultaneously, with over $4 million in assets sold into ETH, BNB, SOL, then quickly moved through Privacy Cash and Chainflip.
Even now, he himself is still confused and doesn't know exactly where things went wrong.
Before the incident, he was attending an event in Singapore, publicly sharing his itinerary and meeting many new friends; around 4:30 AM, while he was sleeping, his assets started being emptied.
So I think there's a possibility this was a targeted offline attack on the person.
For example, someone at a drinking party deliberately got close, took the phone or computer briefly while he was drunk, or even saw the device passwords in advance.#SpaceX拟融资400亿美元采购英伟达芯片
The rocket company that just went public in June plans to borrow another $40 billion to buy chips four months later. The bond it issued in June is now only accepted by the market at an 85% discount.
▪️ The rating is BBB — the second lowest tier in investment grade, just affordable for insurance companies and pension funds
▪️ The market price is 85 cents — for the $25 billion tranche maturing in 2056 issued in June (coupon 6.65%), with a yield about 227 basis points higher than U.S. Treasuries, already at junk bond level
▪️ This round plans to issue $30 billion in investment grade bonds, 1.2 times the $25 billion issued in June
▪️ It also has $28 billion in irrevocable computing power commitments, mostly maturing in 2027, and this transaction is also expected to complete in 2027
The disagreement is not about whether the $40 billion can be borrowed, but who sets the price for the term "investment grade" — the rating sets the entry, the market sets the price.
The money will be borrowed, but that rating cannot maintain its price — the trigger condition is that the spread on the next $30 billion stays within 227 basis points; the failure condition is that the 2056 tranche falls below 80 cents.$CORE ORE Order Book Reveals the Truth: Why Can't the Price Rise Even Though Buy Orders Outnumber Sell Orders?
Many people only glance at the red and green candlesticks when watching the market. Today, this set of deep order book data + liquidation + funding rate data reveals the most authentic current chip status.
Current price 0.01995, total order book volume: sell orders 5,832,900 CORE, buy orders 9,700,000 CORE, buy/sell ratio 0.60;
On the surface, the buy order volume is clearly larger, but the price still can't break through, hiding some painful details inside.
Breaking down the order book structure:
- The selling pressure above is very concentrated: a large number of sell orders are stacked in the narrow range of 0.02000-0.02004, forming a very clear short-term horizontal wall overhead; it's not that there is no support, but every small upward step requires continuously absorbing dense selling pressure;
- The buy orders below are distributed deeper: buy orders are not concentrated right at the current price but spread from 0.01993 down to 0.01985, layer upon layer supporting the bottom; this indicates that some funds are willing to hold chips at low price ranges but are unwilling to actively spend money to sweep orders upward or ignite the price.
Simply put: the current state is "someone supports, but no one pulls up."
Looking at liquidation data:
In the past 24 hours, it has been almost a one-sided clearing of long positions—long position liquidations totaled $90,800, while short position liquidations were only $3,693.27;
In the recent 1-12 hours, it has basically only been sweeping longs;
This indicates that the previous batch of leveraged faith traders who rushed in have been gradually washed out by these rounds of downward pressure.$ETH has clearly broken below the 2724-2777 trading range on the technical level. After breaking the upper boundary at 2777, five 1-hour candlesticks quickly pulled back. After breaking below 2724 this time, it quickly pulled back at 2685, forming a 5-15 minute micro consolidation zone. Do not chase shorts; observe signal candlesticks after stabilization. You can lightly position longs around 2705. Be cautious with light positions! This pattern clearly develops towards a larger consolidation zone. Vgas is still in a bullish arrangement. The outlook remains bullish! The recent period is a consolidation phase.Sold 5.348 million SOL, cashing out about $861 million, with an average price of about $161. This is Pumpfun's SOL account up to today.
Lookonchain detected that Pumpfun transferred another 102,495 SOL to Kraken early this morning, about $12.41 million, which breaks down to about $121 per SOL. According to Yujin, this batch of SOL comes from the platform's fee income.
Let's do the math:
1. The cumulative average selling price is about $161. At the time of writing, SOL on OKX is about $118.6, about 26% lower than its average selling price.
2. If these 5.348 million SOL had been held, at the current price they would only be worth about $630 million, about $230 million less than the actual cash-out.
3. This batch was sold around $121. SOL dropped about 1.7% in 24 hours, hitting a daily low of 117.
4. Yesterday, Arkham analyzed its on-chain holdings, packaging about $336 million worth of SOL, roughly 2.8 million SOL at yesterday's price. At this pace, it could sell more than twenty times.
The sales are from fee income, which doesn't necessarily indicate a bearish view on SOL, but each time 100,000 SOL-level amounts enter exchanges, it adds short-term selling pressure.
Pumpfun still holds about 2.8 million SOL. Do you think it will continue selling below 120, or wait until SOL returns to 150 to sell?
$SOL The number of new chains keeps increasing, but how much can old coins benefit?
$AVAX has a change that is easy to overlook: independent L1 validators now adopt a model of continuous payment of AVAX fees, no longer using the old subnet validators' staking requirements.
Lowering the threshold for chain creation helps attract projects, but we can no longer estimate demand based on the old idea of "each new chain locks up a large amount of coins."
I focus more on how many validators pay fees long-term and how many chains truly operate. Short-term deployment is easy; sustained operation carries weight.
This is also my key point in watching it: ecological expansion is worth attention, but the token's benefit level needs separate calculation.
$NEAR has more than doubled in the past month, but today it fell about 6% in 24 hours.
The most common misjudgment at this position is to treat the pullback directly as a bargain.
The rapid rise earlier means the buying price may already include a lot of expectations. Even if the business continues to progress, if the progress does not exceed expectations, the price may need to digest it.
I will first see if there is active buying after the drop and won't rush to use past gains to prove the next rise.
$ONDO has still risen about 22% in the past month but fell about 4% in the past week, showing divergence over two periods.
My understanding is that the mid-term gains remain, but the short-term willingness to chase prices needs re-examination.
When new news comes later, the focus is on whether the price can sustain a response. If each news release only causes a brief uptick, then expectations for news-driven stimuli should be lowered, and it’s better to watch more and act less. This load-bearing wall hasn't even dried yet, and you're already rushing to cap it off? Who gave you the guts to stand on it?
Just came down from a twenty-meter-high scaffold, still with cement dust on my hands that I haven't wiped off. When I glanced at the chart, I almost slammed my safety helmet on the ground. Moving bricks and mixing cement on the construction site every day, finally earning some hard-earned money, all taken away by those dealers drawing 3D renderings to fill their pockets. Usually, after a day of moving bricks, at least I get two boxed meals and a pack of Double Happiness cigarettes, but opening a high-leverage position here means not only wasting three days of work in five minutes but also having to pay the foreman for two bags of cement out of my own pocket.
But cursing aside, those who work in construction have sharp eyes. This $XRP settlement pillar has already directly broken through the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands. The 1-hour RSI has dropped to around 34, clearly the stage where the concrete vibrator has been overused and the slurry is settling down—not a foundation collapse, but a real slurry shrinkage.
Those hyped-up positive news are like the developer's sales office model—empty talk until it reaches the rebar. But as long as the compressive strength of the base concrete remains and the lower Bollinger Band hasn't been violently cracked, this is not an illegal construction collapse but a stress test of the base slab. The rebar is properly tied, and the rebound will be as quick as a crane lifting in a blink.
I'll tap this rebound load-bearing beam first with a trowel.
- Symbol: $XRP 🟢
- Entry: 1.4550 - 1.4700
- TP1: 1.5200
- TP2: 1.5450
- SL: 1.4380
As long as this base stress layer doesn't crack, the tower crane has to keep lifting upward.
#CoinMoveAlertMarket cap approaches 986M USD, but on-chain real accumulation is only 4M USD. $FIL surged 11.34% in 24 hours to 1.1792, with the 4H RSI shooting up to 77.4 entering overbought territory, revealing a clear fundamental gap in the market.
Today's trading volume is only 1.0 times the 20-day average, with the current funding rate holding at +0.0100%. The market shows neither strong off-exchange capital aggressively accumulating nor extreme short squeeze from bears. The circulating supply ratio is only 43% and is -100% from the historical high. In the absence of an ecological breakout, this rally is essentially a pulse of existing chips after a deep drop, rather than a demand revaluation.
Our FIL long position yield is +78.5%, with the stop loss mechanically moved up to 1.1697, just 1.0% away from the current price, so triggering it will not result in a loss.
Structurally, the current price faces the 30- and 90-day highs at 1.2296. If the daily chart can firmly hold above 1.2296, the rebound momentum may have room to expand; if it is blocked and falls below the 4H EMA20 at 1.07812, it means this volume-less pulse will return to consolidation.
With the stark divergence of only 4M USD on-chain TVL, is the area before 1.2296 a liquidity trap after overselling, or a turning point after chip clearing?
#FIL #MarketAnalysis #ChipStructure
Personal observation, not investment advice, please assess risks yourself. $LDO is positioned neutrally, but the direction softened first
Looking at LDO's position, it's somewhat indecisive. The just-closed 5-minute candlestick is at 0.4361 USDT, still within the price range of the past few hours. The price hasn't leaned to either side, but the past day saw a net decline, with a 24-hour change of -7.21%.
In this middle position, shorting risks catching a short-term bottom, while waiting for a rebound leaves uncertainty if it will drop directly. I'll hold back on taking action for now.
What can be confirmed now is that the price remains within the reference range without any breakout. Next, I'll watch if it approaches the lower boundary of the range and whether trading volume changes at that time.$OKB experienced a volatility of up to 10% from last night to this morning. I think those who should have taken profits have done so, those who needed to stop losses have already stopped losses, and those who needed to cut losses have cut losses. Those still holding must be long-term optimistic like me. I believe platform tokens will be the main theme in this bull market, with great cost-performance and growth potential. In the short term, $OKB may still fluctuate or even dip, but as I always say, opportunities come from the dips. I will still add to my position whenever I have the chance or spare funds!Seeing you say you're now fully long on Celo, wanting to make the bears fearful and stop the sell-off. I understand that sentiment. After spending a long time in crypto, everyone has had the impulse to challenge the market. Especially watching CELO rise from $0.09 to $0.10, with on-chain revenue growing, buybacks continuing, MiniPay users surpassing 20 million, USA₮ launching, and x402 supporting AI agent payments—these fundamentals are indeed exciting. You might wonder why it’s still stuck at $0.10, why the bears can still suppress it. But I want to say a few hard truths. The market never stops selling just because someone shouts to scare the bears. Sell-offs only stop for two reasons: either the sellers have no more tokens, or buyers are willing to buy all tokens at higher prices. Slogans don’t change supply and demand, nor does sentiment. The first question: Is your confidence in being fully invested based on research or on unwillingness to accept loss? If you have carefully studied CELO’s whitepaper, tokenomics, buyback mechanism, unlock schedule, and ecosystem progress, and can accept it dropping another 30% or even 50%, then you are investing. If you are just buying more because others are bullish or because you are already trapped and want to average down, then you are gambling. The biggest problem with being fully invested is not whether your direction is right, but that you lose your margin for error. If the market pulls back again, you won’t have any bullets left to add, and can only watch your account shrink helplessly. The second question: Does CELO’s liquidity support your full position? CEThe single-day trading volume directly broke through the total market capitalization, but the fiercest aspect of the market is not the price increase, but the depth of leverage betting. $NMR surged 30.62% in 24 hours to 15.811, with trading volume exploding to 18.0 times the 20-day average, and the funding rate plunged to -0.1228% during the period.
The market-wide trading volume to market cap ratio reached as high as 132.2%, with a circulation ratio of 65% and still -83% away from the historical high. There is no fundamental demand catalyst on the market; it is purely a liquidity pulse driven by leveraged speculation. The 4H RSI reached 76.5 and the daily RSI hit 71.9, both overbought. A large number of shorts tried to top-fish on the left side, but under the heavy pressure of 0.12% interest every 8 hours, it evolved into a self-inflicted short squeeze.
Structurally, the current price of 15.811 is directly facing the shared high of 17.2 from the 7, 30, and 90-day periods. If the daily line can truly break through and close above 17.2, the short squeeze momentum will force contract shorts to cover further; if it is resisted here and falls below the 4H EMA20 at 13.2222, it means this wave of leverage momentum is exhausted, and the market will quickly pull back to the moving average.
Under the extreme discount of -0.1228%, is the area before 17.2 the shorts' last acceleration of the stampede, or the opponent's exit point borrowing liquidity?
#NMR #MarketAnalysis #Positioning
Personal observation, not investment advice, please assess risks independently. This market really kills people in the short term. Even after dropping to this level, Ethereum's funding rate is still so high. It seems that many people share the same view, and the bullish sentiment is too strong. Ethereum's liquidity for the whole month has been wiped out. Let's see if the daily chart can close above 2630.Looking at the surface: in the Asian morning hour, BTC fell from 85,600 to 83,560, then barely rebounded to 84,000-84,200. In 24 hours, it fell 1.5%, with 550 million in total liquidation, and long positions accounting for 480 million. The daily chart closed below 82,600, next target is 80,000. First thing: this is not a crypto bomb, but the oil price's fault. Iran accelerated attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude rose to $101.5. The dollar strengthened, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds soared to 5.31%. Money is moving from risk assets to safe-haven assets. BTC is the first to be hit by liquidity drainage. Geopolitical conflicts have never been BTC's death sentence; they are just short-term blood drains. What truly kills BTC has always been the Fed's rate hikes and leverage bubbles, not oil tankers. Second event: ETFs turned negative by 90 million, but cumulative net inflows still reached 57.7 billion. On Monday, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about 90 million, and inflows were still happening a few days ago. Many people panicked when they saw this number. 90 million—compared to 57.7 billion, it's just a drop in the bucket. Short-term ETF capital inflows and outflows are the norm; what truly determines the long-term direction is the major trend in institutional allocation. Tonight, the Fed's September meeting minutes will be released, and that's the source of the next wave of volatility. The minutes are hawkish, trying 84,000 again; The minutes are dovish, rebounding directly back to 86,000. Third thing: No one can change the supply contraction after the halving. After the halving, daily new BTC output further decreased, and supply continued to shrink. The hash rate showed no abnormalities, networkThe 0-year US Treasury yield has again risen above 5.3%, and Danske Bank is starting to call for 6%?
In the European morning session, the 10-year US Treasury yield has returned above 5.3%, with Trading Economics showing around 5.31%, just a bit shy of the 2024 high. US stock futures opened slightly down, by 0.1% to 0.2%.
The US Dollar Index also returned to around 102, according to FXStreet.
Danske Bank’s tone this time is a bit harsh; the pressure on the long end comes not only from Treasury supply but also from tech giants issuing bonds. Both the 10-year and 30-year maturities face the risk of hitting 6%.
I actually think this is more worth pondering than the 5.31% itself. AI companies borrowing money to build data centers—according to Danske, these bonds compete with Treasuries on the long end for the same group of buyers. Naturally, buyers demand a higher term premium, pushing yields up bit by bit. Meanwhile, the new highs in US stocks rely precisely on these companies, with the S&P closing at 7818.93 on October 6. They are borrowing money that raises their own discount rate.
Gold prices are also soft today, down 0.7%, falling below $4150. On the market page, BTC is around $84,128, down 1.69% in 24 hours. Both are non-yielding assets, pressured together by high real interest rates, so they will likely continue to rise and fall together for a while.
The market is pricing about an 80% probability of no rate change this month. Tomorrow early morning Beijing time, there will first be a $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction, followed by the September meeting minutes. $XAUT #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息? The Hormuz risk premium is no longer just a headline variable; repeated tanker attacks turn routing, insurance, and delivery timing into a live constraint.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline offers meaningful relief at roughly 5.8 million barrels a day, but it is a pressure valve, not a full substitute for confidence in the strait.
#HormuzTankerAttacks $CT No vision, can't hold on, the profit from this short position is as thin as paper, but I love it to death.
Just after lunch when I checked the market, CT tried to go up again, with obvious resistance above, strong selling pressure, but very low volume. I signaled a short near 0.4222, basically meaning high-level pressure, no one to catch it going up.
Then it went straight down, 0.3941 gave the answer, floating profit +135%, feeling good brothers. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is really sweet.
Take 80% off the table first, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don't let the gains become uncomfortable. The market is about waiting, profits come from holding.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me, now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. The market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience.
$SOL $DOGE I am your uncle.
$BTC dropped sharply on the one-hour chart, with RSI sliding down to around 26. It has entered the oversold zone in the short term, but oversold does not mean an immediate reversal.
Right now, many people impulsively rush in to catch the bottom, thinking that after such a big drop, a rebound is certain. But you have to understand, this plunge is driven by risk-averse funds fleeing. The moving averages on the hourly chart have all turned down and are pressing from above, with 85100 becoming a strong resistance.
Don’t think that a sharp drop means you can bet on a V-shaped reversal. Currently, 83500 is the most important defense line in front of us. If this support doesn’t hold, the next test will be at 81500.
Even if there is a small rebound now, it is most likely just a technical correction. When the rebound hits resistance, there is still a possibility of a second dip. Don’t rush to catch the bottom on the first wave; it’s better to wait for a stabilization signal than to dive in headfirst and catch a falling knife.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC hourly chart quickly dips into oversold
#Short-term oversold does not mean immediate reversal
#Support 83500 resistance 85100Why does a negative funding rate not mean that going long can surely earn "interest"?
When I first started trading contracts, I especially liked to find coins with negative funding rates.
Shorts pay longs, so you can wait for a rebound and collect funding fees; it looks like a free opportunity from the market.
Later I realized that the funding rate is not a benefit but a quote of how crowded the market is.
I once went long on a small coin that kept crashing; at that time, the funding rate had deeply turned negative, and everyone in the group said shorts were too crowded and a short squeeze was imminent.
In the end, I collected several rounds of fees and made a few dozen USDT, but the coin price still dropped another 30%. That funding income couldn’t even cover a normal price fluctuation.
What’s more ironic is that during the price decline, people kept bottom-fishing, and both long and short positions increased simultaneously. The negative funding rate persisted for a long time, and the so-called short squeeze never happened.
A negative funding rate only indicates that the perpetual contract price is weaker than the spot price or that short demand is stronger; it does not mean selling pressure has ended. It could be an extreme sentiment before a reversal or the holding cost shorts are willing to pay during a downtrend.
To judge whether it’s worth going long, you also need to see if the spot market is absorbing, if the price has stopped falling, if open interest has been cleaned out, and whether shorts can still push the price lower after the negative funding rate appears.
Remember: the funding rate tells you which side is more crowded but does not tell you which side will lose immediately; trying to earn a little funding fee while enduring large fluctuations often means picking up interest but losing principal.Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$NMR short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.489%, price +0.55%, open interest +1.55%. Increase in positions accompanies the price rise; holding shorts through settlement faces both adverse price movements and funding fee expenses.
$SAND short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.1137%, price +1.28%, open interest +1.14%. Increase in positions accompanies the price rise; holding shorts through settlement faces both adverse price movements and funding fee expenses.
$API3 short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.1071%, price +0.62%, open interest -0.39%. Price rise accompanies overall position contraction; holding shorts through settlement faces both adverse price movements and funding fee expenses.AVAX showed weakness today, and after a pullback, it did not form a clear strong recovery, indicating that the market remains selective about capital allocation in the public chain sector. Avalanche's highlights lie in subnets, institutional asset on-chain integration, and RWA layout, but currently the market is more concerned about whether real users, on-chain transactions, and ecosystem revenue can grow. The recent heated discussion on the commercial sustainability of L2 projects has also made investors more cautious in valuing infrastructure projects. AVAX currently appears to be in a consolidation phase awaiting new catalysts, and whether ecosystem data improves will directly affect subsequent sentiment. $AVAXBCH continues to pull back today, with a trend clearly weaker than the previous active phase. BCH's market usually relates to miner ecology, payment narratives, and capital rotation. Without sustained hotspots, it tends to fluctuate following BTC's direction. After mainstream assets have retraced, market funds are more defensive, and BCH has not shown any particularly strong independent drivers for now. There is support at intraday lows, but volume has not significantly increased, making the short-term movement look more like a consolidation phase; if Bitcoin stabilizes and funds rotate back to PoW themes, attention may rise again. $BCH$HYPE is around $91 after pulling back from the $98 ATH
But the ETF flows are still telling an interesting story
U.S. spot HYPE ETFs added roughly $3M in the latest session, pushing cumulative inflows to ~$352M
Price is cooling, but institutional demand hasn't disappeared
For me, $95–$98 is the key reclaim zone. Break that, and the next expansion could get interesting.SUI is relatively weak today. After the intraday decline expanded, there was some support, but the rebound strength is currently moderate. The market logic for Sui mainly revolves around being a high-performance public chain, gaming, and on-chain application ecosystem. Its advantages lie in user experience and capital efficiency, but assets of this type of new public chain are very sensitive to market risk appetite. Currently, funds prefer to wait for clear catalysts, such as popular ecological applications, TVL recovery, or new cooperation progress. In the short term, it is a weak consolidation, and whether it can recover mainly depends on whether on-chain data and trading volume can improve simultaneously. $SUI$BTC
Last night, the US market surged to 86600 but faced pressure and fell back. Today, the Asian session directly broke below the short-term defense level of 84295, hitting a low near 83500.
Current price is 84100, fluctuating around a critical level.
If it can't hold here, the next key focus is the bull-bear dividing line at 82500.
Once it breaks below, this bullish trend will most likely end, and the strategy should shift to bearish.
Key point: Tonight's US session is very crucial!
For those who have already opened short positions, partial profit-taking around 82500 is advisable.
If it holds and rises above 82500, a V-shaped reversal structure cannot be ruled out.$BTC plunged sharply this morning! Just dodged a deep oil trap, only to get hit by a market spike 🤡
Today's market really feels like it's specifically clearing out leverage. BTC quickly dropped from around 86600 to near 83500, a 5-minute waterfall that crushed short-term bullish sentiment. The underlying cause is still macro pressure: high US Treasury yields, a relatively strong dollar, with risk assets being offloaded by big funds first, and crypto following liquidity flows.
On the chart, 83500-84000 is the support zone after the sharp drop, while 85100-86600 has turned into a resistance band. A rebound that can hold above 85500 would be a breather; failing that, it's still a weak recovery. Indicators show that after the sharp drop, MACD's green bars are converging, RSI is returning to the mid-zone, indicating a rebound, but KDJ is high, suggesting not to chase aggressively; the structure hasn't reversed yet, so this is just a technical repair after the spike.
In terms of trading, reduce leverage first, don't judge a reversal just from one rebound candle. Oil and crypto rhythms differ, and jumping across assets can easily lead from the frying pan into the fire. Wait for volume confirmation or a non-broken pullback before making moves. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架
After the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate, the two major U.S. regulatory agencies accelerated their actions simultaneously.
On the CFTC side, on October 5th, the first batch of proposed crypto market rules was released, establishing a "Crypto Asset Market" (CAM) registration subcategory that allows platforms to voluntarily opt for federal-level regulation, replacing the fragmented state licensing system. The rules cover retail leverage and margin trading, require proof of reserves, anti-manipulation controls, and mandate that customer transactions be handled through regulated futures commission merchants. The comment period is 60 days.
On the SEC side, on October 1st, a 760-page custody rule proposal was released, allowing investment advisers to self-custody client assets when qualified custodians are unavailable, subject to conditions such as written certification, quarterly revaluation, multi-person authorization, and independent audits. It also includes state-chartered trust companies within the scope of qualified custodians.
Both agencies share the same direction: in the face of legislative stagnation, they are paving a compliance path for institutional entry through administrative rules. BTC current price is about 84,800-85,000, with resistance at 87,000 and support at 84,000. Positions have stop-loss below 83,500; short positions wait for a pullback to 84,500 to stabilize before entering again. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #strategy estimates $4.12 billion income tax benefit
[Old Leek Observation]
In Strategy's latest financial report, there's a number that's easy to overlook: $4.12 billion.
It's not about how much BTC was bought, but that it expects to gain an income tax benefit of $4.12 billion.
The reason is simple:
As of September 30, the fair value of BTC held by Strategy has risen above cost again. The previously recognized $4.12 billion deferred tax asset valuation allowance, made due to BTC price declines, has now been reversed.
The result is:
The originally expected deferred tax expense of about $6 billion has directly dropped to $1.88 billion.
Even more striking, Strategy expects Q3 digital asset fair value gains to reach:
$20.91 billion.
But note:
The $4.1 billion is not money directly paid by the U.S. government to Saylor.
This is an accounting deferred income tax benefit.
The more $BTC rises, the better Strategy's balance sheet looks.ETH shows a clear intraday pullback, repeatedly fluctuating after breaking below a key psychological level during the session. The market's risk appetite for mainchain assets is temporarily cooling down. Recently, Blast announced its shutdown due to income failing to cover costs, prompting the market to reassess the commercialization capability and real user retention of the L2 ecosystem. However, the core logic of ETH itself remains stablecoins, RWA, DeFi, and institutional allocation, with short-term volatility more influenced by overall market liquidity. Next, it will be important to see whether on-chain activity and ETF-related funds can provide support to sentiment. $ETHOn the 177th day of live trading, $OKB is currently in a much better position than $BNB, but whether it can surpass it is probably very difficult.
Honestly, seeing $OKB rise so much makes me want to get involved, but it’s just too crazy, continuously going up without a good entry point, so I still advise everyone to dollar-cost average and buy some spot. If you don’t understand the market, don’t participate. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 🚨 BTC keeps knocking on the ceiling, but the door just won’t open.
It’s been stuck in this range for almost half a month, and honestly, the momentum is getting weaker by the day.
$87K feels harder and harder to reach, let alone a clean break above $90K. For now, I’m leaning toward adding to my short positions 📉
I’m temporarily trading $AMZN too, so I don’t have much room to keep increasing my shorts. Otherwise, I’d probably be adding more here.
#DailyOrbit XRP experienced a relatively large pullback today; after a surge, it failed to hold steady, indicating that short-term profit-taking and selling pressure above are quite evident. In the long term, XRP's valuation still revolves around cross-border payments, institutional partnerships, and regulatory progress, but when the overall market weakens, these high-liquidity, established assets tend to be the first to see capital reductions. Currently, it looks more like a repricing after a cooling of sentiment. There is some support at lower levels, but it is not enough to indicate a trend reversal yet. The key is to see if trading volume can continue to expand steadily during the stabilization process. $XRP去年10月10日，很多人打开账户时看到的不是亏损，而是无法追加保证金的绝望。那一天，全网爆仓超过190亿美元，超过160万个账户被清零。OKX作为头部交易所，也承受了巨大的压力。今年10月10日即将到来，大家都在问同一个问题：OKX能不能守住？服务器会不会死机？暴跌能不能成为历史？ 我的判断是：防守体系已经就位，服务器出现去年那种大规模宕机的概率极低，但暴跌本身不会消失，它只会换一种方式发生。 先看OKX的防守准备。今年8月，OKX完成了一次核心交易系统的跨境迁移，整个过程零停机，只有30到40分钟的延迟短暂上升，交易连续性和数据完整性都没有受影响。这项工程的意义在于，它证明OKX的底层基础设施有能力在极端压力下保持运行，而不是像去年那样被流量冲垮。零停机迁移是硬实力的体现，也是回应服务器宕机担忧最直接的证据。 另一个重要变化是AI正式介入风控。在10月7日的TOKEN2049峰会上，OKX CEO Star透露，OKX已经部署AI系统来辅助识别风险、调查可疑交易和行为。这意味着风控从过去的事后追查，转向了事前预警。市场剧烈波动时，AI能更早发现异常模式，为人工决策争取时间。提现机制也[Binance Hot Post] Crashed through 84000 in 20 minutes, $360 million long positions liquidated
This early morning plunge was very typical, dropping straight below 84000 within 20 minutes, with $360 million long positions liquidated within ten minutes.
But looking closely, the spot market barely moved, with a 24-hour decline of only 0.36%, and the price has already V-shaped back above 85500. The hunting of leveraged clusters during low liquidity periods is very obvious.
Currently, the funding rate has turned negative, shorts are starting to crowd and pay; daily and weekly technical indicators remain relatively strong, with the price above multiple moving averages. The drop was quick, and the rebound is equally fast, so the direction is not very clear. $BTCTRX as a whole is relatively resistant to decline, with intraday volatility not being exaggerated, reflecting its defensive role in stablecoin transfers and on-chain payment scenarios. When market risk appetite weakens, capital often refocuses on networks with real usage demand, low fees, and stable on-chain activity. TRON's advantage remains in stablecoin circulation and payment narratives, but to achieve a more resilient market, it still requires the combined support of ecosystem applications, on-chain capital flow, and market sentiment. $TRX #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
At 2 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve will release the September FOMC meeting minutes. Bitcoin has already plunged today.
Why is Bitcoin falling? Mainly because the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, employment is cooling down, and prices are rising—this is a sign of stagflation, which is the trigger for the sharp drop.
The meeting minutes will likely show internal disagreements among officials, but most still believe inflation is above the 2% target and the economy remains resilient, so restrictive interest rates will need to be maintained for a while.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Here's something counterintuitive: Musk has returned to government work, but $DOGE barely moved.
This morning, I brewed a cup of tea and sat at my desk scrolling through my phone when I saw the news that Musk was appointed co-chair of a Pentagon project called the "Meridian Program," which studies future warfare. As someone who doesn't understand military matters, translating it into plain language means: Musk is back working with the Trump administration.
Why does this matter to Dogecoin? Because when Trump first brought him into the government at the end of 2024, Dogecoin jumped 10% immediately, and on the day the government's efficiency department website displayed the Dogecoin logo in early 2025, it rose another 11%. So when the news of his return came out this time, many in the community were shouting "Here we go again."
But I stared at the charts for a while, and the price basically didn't move. I was a bit confused holding my cup. Later, after some digging, I realized this "Meridian Program" has no direct connection to Dogecoin; it's purely Musk personally returning to government work.
Honestly, I was a little disappointed at first, feeling like I got excited for nothing. But then I thought, Musk returning to government work itself shows he's still someone who can stir public opinion. And Dogecoin never needed Musk to hype it every day; what it needs is just the atmosphere that "everyone is still watching him." The rebound from the bottom has exceeded 50%, so what cycle is the current market in? Some call it a bull market, some say it's a bear market rebound, but mostly it's mindless noise without a rational and clear answer!
Let me share my thoughts to provide some reference for everyone, for future verification!
My conclusion: The strong recovery after the bear market is not yet a new bull market!
$BTC fell from $126,000 to $58,000, then rebounded to $87,000. In 2026, it should still be treated within the bear market framework. The $58,000 level is very likely an important bottom, but the cycle bottom has not been fully confirmed.
The maximum retracement this round is about 54%, and the adjustment period is shorter than previous full bear markets. The ETF has strengthened support, possibly making the bear market decline shallower, but it changes the depth of the retracement, not the cycle itself.
There is capital support, but not enough to blindly be bullish.
In the first four trading days of October, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of about $322 million, indicating institutions have not exited; however, compared to over $2 billion in a single week in late September, the willingness to chase prices has clearly declined.
The $85,000-$88,000 range is the first resistance, while $90,000-$96,700 will determine whether this market can upgrade from a recovery to a reversal.
For the main path in the next six months, I tend to believe:
In October, BTC will first challenge $88,000-$92,000, and at the peak of sentiment may test $96,700, but the first breakthrough will most likely fail to hold.