Orbit Post Sitemap
The chip concentration zone is far more valuable as a reference than integer price levels 🧱
Many people blindly trust integer price levels, but the real long-short battles happen in the chip concentration zones formed by historical transaction accumulation.
$BTC, integer price points are just psychological barriers, easily pierced by spikes, while chip concentration zones represent real support and resistance; GALA, a blockchain gaming project, faces huge selling pressure to break free when rebounding into historical chip lock-up zones; $REN, a cross-chain privacy bridge, experiences intense long-short contention when the price reaches chip bands.
Instant spikes piercing through chip zones do not count as valid breakouts; confirmation requires closing firmly above.
Do not use integer numbers as trading bases; focus on chip positions with dense historical transactions.
When encountering chip concentration zones, do not rush to trade breakouts; wait for confirmation signals from the market.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $BNB 4h bullish, RSI 51.3 mid-level; 1h RSI 52.5 slightly high, MACD upward
Range: 767.82–769.21 (1h pullback zone), currently within the zone
Timing: Within the pullback zone, suitable for reference (do not chase the rally).
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when reaching target or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target: 784
Invalidation: Break below 766.77
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Follow the trend when chasing
$BTC 4h bullish, RSI 52.1 mid-level; 1h RSI 46 mid-level, MACD upward
Range: 84582–84718 (1h pullback zone), currently within the zone
Timing: Within the pullback zone, suitable for reference (do not chase the rally).
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when reaching target or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target: 87222
Invalidation: Break below 83828
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Follow the trend when chasing
For analysis only, not advice or order instructions.$SUI is slightly strong on the 4h timeframe, RSI 54.6 is relatively high; 1h RSI 59.3 at the upper edge, MACD trending upward
Range: 1.15–1.16 (1h pullback zone), currently above the range, waiting for pullback
Timing: Slightly high above the range, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when the upper target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target: 1.22
Invalidation: Break below 1.12
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Enter only after pullback
$UNI is long on 4h, RSI 54.4 at the upper edge; 1h RSI 57.4 at the upper edge, MACD trending downward
Range: 9.04–9.1 (1h pullback zone), currently above the range, waiting for pullback
Timing: Slightly high above the range, wait for pullback to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends when the upper target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target: 9.32
Invalidation: Break below 8.99
After invalidation: Wait to retake EMA55
Discipline: Not recommended to chase
For analysis only, not advice or order instruction.The US-Iran situation is tense, and the G7 plans to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves. Risk appetite is warming up, driving UNI slightly higher. I judge the short-term bias to be bullish, but there is still heavy resistance above; a breakout requires volume support. In the past 24 hours, UNI rose 2.1%, priced at 9.189. The intraday high of 9.319 met resistance and pulled back, while the low of 8.568 was supported. Trading volume was 15.42 million. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but the price is still 14.22% below the 4-hour high, indicating the rebound has not yet recovered the mid-term losses. The order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.41, favoring buyers. The funding rate is only 0.0037%, with open interest at 5.62 million. Bullish sentiment is moderate and not overheated. Strategically, if the price pulls back and stabilizes at 8.793, a light long position can be taken with a stop loss at 8.541 and a target of 9.487. If there is a volume breakout above 9.332, increase long positions with a stop loss at 9.108 and a target of 9.672, keeping the position size within 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $UNI AMD plans to invest $8.2 billion to acquire an AI company, indicating that traditional computing power giants are accelerating the acquisition of AI assets. If market risk appetite warms up, high-beta targets like BSB often benefit first. I lean slightly bullish in the short term. The current quote is 0.0999, down 0.7% in 24 hours, with a range from 0.09332 to 0.104, a turnover of 1.578 million, and a funding rate of 0.0050% showing mild bullish sentiment. The 1-hour level is weakening, down 4.32% from the high, but the 4-hour level remains in an upward structure, 9.28% above the low, indicating the correction has not broken the mid-term rhythm; the order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is 1.80, with 3,670 buy orders versus 2,039 sell orders, showing a significantly stronger willingness to buy. Strategically, if it pulls back to 0.09685 and stabilizes, one can lightly go long with a stop loss at 0.09315 and a target of 0.10435; if it breaks through 0.10435 with volume, then chase the long with a stop loss at 0.10120 and a target of 0.10880. Position control should be within 20%, and do not hold if stop loss is broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BSB#OpenAI plans a $1.4 trillion valuation raising $30 billion
#AMD plans to invest $8.2 billion to acquire an AI company $BSB BTC just made a move up, now wobbling back to 84672, ETH also returned to 2684 dollars. Brothers, this market looks lively, but it's actually not time to relax yet.
US Treasury yields have fallen, PCE isn't as scary, and market worries about the Fed continuing to raise rates have eased a lot, so risk assets finally caught a breather.
Right now, BTC focuses on three key levels:
Around 84600, first see if it can hold steady. If it climbs back above 85K, there's a chance to test 86K-87K again; if it breaks through 87K with volume, then look at 88K or even 90K.
Below, 83K-84K is critical support. If it holds, I'll keep some positions to observe; if it breaks 83K with volume, I'll actively reduce positions, looking down to 82K, and in an extreme case 80.5K-81K.
ETH is now at 2684, focusing on 2700 and 2800. First reclaim 2700, then talk about breaking 2800; if 2700 can't hold, don't get too greedy in the short term.
My own strategy is simple: light positions, wait for confirmation, don't chase the rally. Follow with small positions on breakouts above resistance, consider adding after support holds on pullbacks, and exit if support breaks—don't stubbornly fight the market.
What I fear most now is chasing after every rise; control your hands, don't get carried away. I only dare to hold light positions waiting for stronger market signals.
Of course, choices aren't limited to BTC and ETH; coins like SOL, UNI, ZEC, which have performed well recently, can also be considered.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $DOGE I've been following it for a long time too, but it just hasn't gone up.
The first thing I bought was Dogecoin, which was very popular back then, but not anymore.
The purchase price at that time was also very high, 2.1 yuan each, one unit was the starting point.
I didn't expect that to be the highest point then and also the highest point now. It's crazy.
Now with high debt interest rates for a long time, and Musk's calls have no effect.
Another point is that this token has no burn mechanism and increases infinitely.
From this perspective, doge seems to have no future to look forward to.
Now I no longer expect to make money, just hope to break even!!!
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 AMD plans to spend $8.2 billion to acquire an AI company, and the computing power narrative often drives sentiment for assets like CL. However, I judge this to be only a short-term catalyst; overall, CL remains in a downtrend channel, so chasing longs requires very strict discipline.
24h up 1.6% to 91.14, the high of 91.97 was not broken, with a relatively thin turnover of 11.62 million. 4-hour down 6.62%, 1-hour up 2.48%, showing divergence across different timeframes. The buy-sell ratio is 0.92, with sellers slightly dominant, funding rate 0.0000%, open interest 366,000, sentiment neutral with no forced liquidation.
Strategy 1: Light short position on rebound to 92.35, stop loss at 93.15, target 88.85. Strategy 2: Test long position on pullback to 88.65 if stabilized, stop loss at 87.75, target 91.55. Single trade risk should not exceed 2% of total position; place orders first and wait for triggers.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$CL#OpenAI plans $1.4 trillion valuation raising $30 billion
#AMD拟斥资82亿美元收购AI公司 $CL Family, who understands this? 🤣 ETH this round has perfectly played the role of the “crypto world’s laid-back second-in-command”!
Just rushed up to a small peak at 2807, then immediately switched to “precise sideways” mode. Now it’s stuck right at 2684, with MA5 and MA10 almost merged into a single line. The price is just rubbing back and forth on this line, dropping only 0.46% in a day, almost flat over 7 days, not giving you any decent volatility, basically saying, “As long as big brother BTC moves sideways, I’ll move sideways with it.”
What’s even funnier is that it rose 51% over 90 days, but only 6% over 30 days. So this thing’s life motto is basically “rise, then lie flat until you lose your temper.” Other coins jump up and down every day, but ETH practices Tai Chi on the moving averages, making those chasing highs or shorting give up and uninstall their apps. Even good news from MetaMask can’t stir it up at all.
Current state of holding ETH: it moves sideways, let it move sideways; I lie flat, let it move sideways. Anyway, it’s up almost half in half a year. Let it grind; it’s better than those crazy altcoins dropping 10% a day. No need to watch the market during the National Day holiday; it won’t rise or fall, just here to accompany you into retirement. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations. The market is betting on a rate cut, and after shorts were forcibly liquidated, the price surged above 87,000. However, the current price near 84,695 shows RSI overbought and a pullback, with moving averages converging, so a short-term wait for a retest confirmation is needed.
On the liquidation side, there is a dense short liquidation zone near 83,362 below. If the price falls to this area, it is likely to trigger a liquidity rebound. At the same time, there is a large accumulation of long liquidations near 82,282, forming a secondary support. Above, there is high-leverage short pressure near 85,342, which is the primary short-term test level.
After finishing this trade, I stopped by the roadside to catch my breath and wiped off the sweat.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to gradually enter long positions in the 83,600 to 84,200 range, with a stop loss below 82,900. If it breaks below 82,282, abandon the logic. Take profit is first expected at 85,200, and after breaking through, look towards the 86,200 level.
$BTC
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
@OKX星球 Strategy's repurchase of BTC drives a wave of treasury accumulation, with MMT benefiting indirectly as a small-cap coin, though capital outflow is limited. I judge the short-term trend as slightly bullish, but caution is advised when chasing highs. The one-hour and four-hour trends are both upward; the current price of 0.1867 has risen nearly 45% from the four-hour low but is constrained by the intraday high of 0.1905. The top ten buy orders in the order book total 16,000, surpassing the 13,000 sell orders, with a strength ratio of 1.22 indicating active absorption. The funding rate is only 0.0050%, showing the bulls are not overheated, and the open interest of 8,403,000 coins does not indicate crowding. A light long position can be taken on a pullback to 0.1835, with a stop loss at 0.1788 and a target of 0.1932; if volume breaks through 0.1912, increase the position, keeping it within 20% and strictly observing the stop loss.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$MMT #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling capital enthusiasm
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $MMT 过去一段时间，ETH始终没有有效突破 $2,800 上方压力，同时 $2,600 附近的支撑也暂时没有被彻底击穿，所以整体还是处于多空拉锯阶段。 但从技术面来看，短线的回调风险正在逐渐增加。 📉 MACD已经出现一定程度的顶背离迹象，日线动能也开始走弱，如果后续柱体进一步转负，意味着空头可能逐步占据主动。 宏观方面同样需要留意： 🇺🇸 美国9月非农就业仅增加2.9万人，明显低于市场此前预期，失业率升至4.2%。就业市场降温可能影响美联储后续政策预期。(Bureau of Labor Statistics) 💰 ETF资金方面，ETH现货ETF此前连续7个交易日出现净流入后，9月29日重新录得约281万美元净流出，资金情绪出现降温迹象。(PrimeXBT) 🌍 同时，美伊局势与能源市场的不确定性仍可能给风险资产带来额外压力。 所以接下来重点关注： 🔹 $2,750–$2,800：上方关键阻力 🔹 $2,650：短线重要支撑 🔹 $2,600：区间下沿 🔹 若跌破 $2,600，下一步可关注 $2,520–$2,550 区域 目前还不能简单判断ETH趋势已经反转，但如果价$DOGE spot price is 0.09263. The DogeOS public testnet launched on September 30, claiming to use DOGE as Gas without issuing additional tokens; the mainnet launch date has not been announced yet. The news has been hot for a few days, but the price is still stuck just below 0.10.
The lowest point in the early morning touched 0.09033, the 24-hour high of 0.09775 is still on the chart, but the current price has moved away from it. It dropped to the low and then bounced back, now standing at 0.09263, still some distance from the 0.10 mark.
A testnet does not mean mainnet usage has increased. Anyone using "L2 is coming" as a reason to chase longs now should wait for the mainnet and real transaction volume, not just a public testnet announcement.
Let's first watch which breaks first, 0.09 or 0.10, no rush to react to the public testnet news.
#DOGEThe wave of treasury accumulation rises again, with strategy funds increasing Bitcoin holdings driving market sentiment, but $SNDK did not follow the strength and instead faced pressure alone. My judgment is short-term weak oscillation with an undetermined breakout direction.
Down 2.3% in 24 hours, the price slid from a high of 1788.4 to 1718, with a turnover of only 353,000, showing low volume. Although the 1-hour level is climbing, the 4-hour trend is clearly downward. The order book buy-sell ratio is 0.74, with selling pressure dominant; funding rate is zero, and open interest is 44,000, with neither bulls nor bears daring to increase positions.
If it rebounds to 1729.6 and faces resistance, a light short position can be taken with a stop loss at 1752.3 and a target of 1684.5; if volume breaks below 1701.8, then chase the short with a stop loss at 1726.4 and a target of 1658.2. Position control should be within 20%, and avoid heavy positions before volume expands.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SNDK#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $SNDK MetaMask disclosed an infrastructure security incident on October 1, proactively exiting related Ethereum validators. The company said there was no immediate threat to wallets at that time. Researchers estimate about 17,000 validators and 523,000 ETH are exiting, but MetaMask has not confirmed this scale. The block rewards transferred to abnormal addresses are estimated by researchers to be about 0.36 ETH. CoinDesk separated the official statement and researcher estimates in their report that day.
Lido said the affected validators are expected to stop staking by October 7. Tokens need to be withdrawn and queued again, which may take about 45 days, with some loss of rewards in between. For stETH holders, Lido said no action is needed on their part. There have been no reports of penalties or slashing. As of Saturday, this exit timeline is still in place; the issue was disclosed on Thursday.
Currently, what can be verified is the exit and reward gap. Wallets being drained and 520,000 ETH being dumped immediately on the spot market have not been confirmed. The latter quantity remains an estimate.
$ETH was at 2678.85 early Saturday, closer to the 24-hour low of 2651, with a high of 2778.6 not sustained. The price is soft, overlapping with the timing of this incident; other reasons for the softness include consecutive net outflows from the Ethereum ETF in U.S. stocks. These two issues should not be conflated into one conclusion. The exit process will reach Lido's stated point next week; for now, watch and do not rush to act.BLAST has been placed on the trading watchlist by Bithumb because the Blast Foundation has announced plans to end mainnet operations.
Such alerts are usually more than just "sentiment reminders"; they represent a direct statement from the exchange regarding the project's sustainability risks. For BLAST, the shutdown of the mainnet will weaken the token's utility, ecosystem continuity, and exchange support stability, and it may face further risk control measures, restrictions, or even delisting reviews.
There are two more realistic observations in the market: one is that the short-term rebound looks more like sentiment repair, and the other is that the exchange's subsequent review results and the progress of on-chain asset withdrawals will directly affect liquidity expectations. Will BLAST be able to maintain its main liquidity, or will it continue to face tightened risk controls?
Source: BlockBeats
#BLASTBrothers, seeing this set of data made me gasp coldly...
The $TRUMP team’s behavior really treats us like an ATM! In 8 months, they quietly transferred 81.87 million tokens through exchanges, with an average price of 3.04, directly pocketing 249 million USD.
What’s the most amazing? The team holds 80% of the chips in total! After selling for a while, they only sold 8.2%, still holding 71.8%. At the current price, that’s a floating profit of 1.49 billion USD! Wow, their money printing machine is more efficient than any other, right?
Let’s be honest, for projects with such high control over the supply, retail investors playing contracts or buying spot are just pure liquidity providers. The project team holds 70% of the chips, they can pump or dump at will. Even a small sell-off makes the market shake; this huge selling pressure is like the sword of Damocles hanging overhead.
But on the other hand, the crypto world is all about consensus and hype. The "King of Understanding" naturally attracts traffic, no matter how concentrated the chips are, people still rush in one after another.最近市场情绪明显偏多，Bitcoin $BTC 一度重新站上 $86,000 上方，不少交易者开始追涨，也有人在 $87,000 附近接多。 但我反而选择继续观察空头逻辑。 目前宏观环境依然存在压力。美国10年期国债收益率近期重新升至约 5.2% 以上，资金成本和避险情绪仍可能限制高波动资产的上行空间。与此同时，Crypto ETF资金开始出现明显分化：截至10月2日，美国现货BTC ETF近一周净流入约 $82.9M，而ETH ETF同期净流出约 $118M，资金热度相比此前明显降温。 这并不意味着牛市已经结束，但短线如果继续追高，风险正在增加。 我的剧本是： 📉 第一目标：$81,000–$82,000 📉 如果多头继续拥挤：$76,000 附近 📉 极端情况下：$71,000–$72,000 如果BTC出现深度回踩，把高位追多的杠杆清理掉，同时让低位持仓者吐出部分利润，市场反而可能重新获得更健康的结构。 当然，目前BTC仍保持较强韧性，而且此前一周现货BTC ETF曾录得约 $2.39B 的强劲流入，因此不能单凭几天的数据就判断趋势已经反转。 所以现在最重要的不是盲目看多或OpenAI plans to raise 30 billion at a valuation of 1.4 trillion, and the AI narrative spillover has brought attention assets like KAITO back into focus, but the positive news is unlikely to change the short-term weakness; I tend to be bearish with oscillation. The four-hour low has risen by 14.51%, but the one-hour has fallen by 6.15%, indicating a conflict between long and short cycles, showing that bulls are reducing positions rather than exiting. The current price is 0.3373, down 4.4%, with a volume of 28.807 million; the top ten buy and sell orders are almost balanced, the funding rate is only 0.0028%, open interest is 11.43 million, sentiment is cold but not panicked. Strategy: lightly short at a rebound to 0.3475, stop loss at 0.3565, target 0.3185; if it falls sharply to 0.3145, go long, stop loss at 0.3065, target 0.3345. Position size should not exceed 20%, exit if broken.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$KAITO#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 $KAITO Scaffolding isn't even stable yet, but they're already daring to lay bricks on top; this building is bound to have a safety accident sooner or later.
In sandbox simulations, I've built dozens of hundred-meter-high buildings, pulling back 20% without even blinking. Today, for the first time, I took out the real money I earned from moving bricks, and watching the red and green numbers jump on the $AAVE chart, my hand holding the trowel actually started trembling. Usually, carrying cement on the construction site fills me with strength, but now staring at the screen, my heartbeat is faster than a pile driver.
The current market is like a freshly poured foundation layer. The price is hovering around 182.35, the 1-hour Bollinger Band middle line at 180.6 is like a firmly embedded steel rebar foundation, supporting the base; the lower band at 177.9 is the last bearing platform. As long as this doesn't collapse, the formwork above can continue to be built upward.
The RSI is oscillating at 58.1, indicating the mixer above is still discharging at a steady rate; the bulls' cement hasn't fully set yet. The upper band at 183.3 pressing overhead is like a freshly supported cast-in-place beam formwork. Although my hands are shaking badly, the verticality of this load-bearing column is currently fine. For this first shovel of mortar, I have to grit my teeth and apply it.
- Target: $AAVE 🟢
- Entry: 181.5 - 182.8
- TP1: 184.5
- TP2: 187.2
- SL: 177.5
As long as cracks or broken rebar appear at the lower bearing platform 177.5, no matter how high it’s built, immediately pull out the safety net and evacuate the site.
#CoinMoveAlert 🏗️Brothers, how did the spot ETFs of BTC and ETH start flowing out together? Let me break it down for you.
Why are they running together?
First, the non-farm payrolls good news was realized, and institutions are taking profits. Before the data was released, funds had already positioned long; now that the good news is out, they are redeeming and cashing out.
Second, institutions are starting to hesitate. Poor employment indeed delayed rate hikes, but the market is already worried about "too poor employment leading to recession," so no one dares to keep adding crypto positions; they reduce positions first.
Third, this thing self-reinforces. Prices don’t rebound, more people redeem; redemptions hit the spot market, prices fail to rise further, creating a vicious cycle.
Bull or bear?
In the medium term, the big picture of non-farm payrolls being positive hasn’t changed, and the rate hike delay is real. But the short-term simultaneous ETF outflows are a bearish signal—BTC’s biggest buyers have shrunk, rebounds lack incremental funds; ETH’s funds are withdrawing even faster, indicating institutions are not optimistic about altcoins and the Ethereum ecosystem either.
What’s next?
In the short term, 1-3 days will likely be volatile, but don’t expect big bullish candles. Macro tailwinds will prevent a crash, but ETF redemptions cap the upside, making it easy to spike and then fall back. Every step BTC rises, someone sells; ETH, due to its higher elasticity but with funds running away, will have weaker gains than BTC.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH OpenAI plans to raise 30 billion at a valuation of 1.4 trillion, AI narratives continue to attract capital, but funds have not spilled over to SOL. I judge that the short term is still dominated by technical factors. Currently at 119.35, down 1.8%, hitting a low of 117.03 before being pulled back, the four-hour distance from the low is already 19.46%, the bottom rising structure is intact, and the pullback is a healthy consolidation. The top 10 buy orders total 16,000, surpassing the sell orders of 8,852, with a strength ratio of 1.81, funding rate only 0.01%, positions at 3.005 million, longs are not crowded, shorts have not dared to add, sentiment is neutral. Strategy: buy on the dip at 118.15, stop loss at 116.85, target 122.45; if volume breaks through 123.34, chase, stop loss at 121.85, target 126.05. Position control within 20%, do not hold if stop loss is broken.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$SOL#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 $SOL $SOL spot price is 119.1. The 24-hour open was 118.76, the highest 123.79, the lowest 117.13, and Shanghai midnight at 119.99. Bitcoin experienced fluctuations of over three thousand dollars up and down, SOL fell back from its high point, still slightly higher relative to its own opening price, with a smaller volatility range.
On October 2, the US stock market Solana spot ETF, Farside, had a total net inflow of about 1.3 million USD, almost all recorded on BSOL. The cumulative scale is about 1.6 billion USD, so 1.3 million is just a drop in the bucket. At the price of 119, there is no sign of large subscriptions pushing it up, nor concentrated redemptions suppressing it.
117 is the low point in these 24 hours, 124 is the high point, and 119 is stopped in the middle but slightly higher. Shanghai midnight is 119.99, the morning session is slightly lower than that position, meaning it gave back a little after midnight, but did not return to 117. There are no new macro figures over the weekend, and this range has not been broken yet.
Just hold for now. Bitcoin giving back its gains does not automatically become a reason to chase SOL; a daily subscription of 1.3 million is still not enough to prove a weakening trend.
#solNonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; CPI is the main course
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls have the market on edge again. BTC hovers around 86,000, ETH around 2,724, all waiting for the data to provide direction.
But the Fed is currently more focused on inflation. CPI ranks first, PCE second, and nonfarm payrolls at best third. As long as inflation cools down, even if employment heats up, there's justification for rate cuts.
Last month's nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, yet the market still rose after the initial drop; when PCE fell, the market rallied immediately. This shows employment isn't the main issue—it's inflation.
So for tonight's nonfarm payrolls, a worse-than-expected drop can be seen as a golden buying opportunity, while a better-than-expected rise shouldn't be chased. The real tone will be set by next month's CPI.
BTC could move around 86,000 either way; don't change your beliefs based on a single data point. ETH fluctuates around 2,724; keep holding short positions at 2,671 and wait for CPI. Also hold long positions in Tesla and Google; fundamentals remain solid.
Remember: nonfarm payrolls are the appetizer, don't get too full—the main course is yet to come.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% When SpaceX went public, investors compared two options: Bitcoin or SpaceX IPO.
Since June 12, Bitcoin has risen by more than 35%, while SpaceX has dropped about 8%.
Anthropic, one of the AI leaders, is reportedly preparing for an IPO with a valuation of $1.8–2 trillion.
This is more than the entire Bitcoin market cap, which is about $1.7 trillion.
AI is already changing the economy, but belief in AI does not mean that a specific company is a profitable investment at $2 trillion.
It is reported that Anthropic may raise up to $100 billion during the IPO. The company also reportedly has commitments of more than $500 billion for computing over a decade. Slowing growth could create significant financial pressure.
The 10x math is illustrative.
If Anthropic is valued at $2 trillion, for a 10-fold investment growth the company must reach $20 trillion.
For BTC at prices around $85,000, 10x means $850,000 per BTC. With a supply of 21 million coins, that is about $17 trillion in market cap.
So the ultimate target for 10x is not that different: about $17 trillion for Bitcoin versus $20 trillion for Anthropic.
Anthropic depends on management, competition, profitability, computing costs, and access to capital. New shares may dilute investors' stakes.
Bitcoin has no CEO, corporate expenses, or contracts worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
It is impossible to just create another $500 billion BTC to fund a new data center. Its supply is limited to 21 million coins.
If AI creates trillions of dollars of new value, it is unclear who will benefit: Anthropic, OpenAI, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, energy companies, or consumers through cheaper products.
Investing in an AI company requires identifying the specific winner of this race.
Bitcoin does not require such a choice: it is a bet on a digital asset with a fixed supply.
So these are two different investment models: a bet on a company or an asset with a predetermined supply.Just brushed away this layer of sedimentary rock, and the stratigraphic layer before my eyes made me laugh out loud—aren't these the shards of the last revelry wine glass from Pompeii?
Under the sun, there really is nothing new. Every time the market fluctuates, retail investors cry and panic at the bottom of the ruins pit; actually, two thousand years ago, Roman slaves betting in the Colosseum had the same expression. Currently, $BCH is hovering around 311.8, with the Bollinger Bands upper and lower bounds (303.6 - 315.9) squeezing the market into a dried Dead Sea scroll, and the RSI at 53.3 is like a bronze blunt instrument unearthed and oxidized, lukewarm and dull. What exactly is the market waiting for—a new excavation report, or just another collective hallucination?
Historically, before every dynasty collapse, similar auspicious omens were spread among the common folk. The current chip turnover is nothing more than replacing the Ming Dynasty Chongzhen era's extra three levies with today's on-chain liquidations. Losses don't need eulogies; they are just the most standard gravity deposits in stratigraphy, even making one want to open a can of soda in the excavation square and laugh at this absurd cycle.
Before this man-made ruin is completely carbonized, just measure the excavation depth of the stratigraphic fault zone.
- Target: $BCH 🟢
- Entry: 308.0 - 312.0
- TP1: 320.0
- TP2: 328.5
- SL: 298.0
The probe is stuck in the hard soil layer at 298.0; if it breaks through, it proves that below is all quicksand. 🏛️🔍
#CoinMoveAlert#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市# If this tech narrative comes true, it may briefly boost risk appetite in the crypto market, but SLX is still showing independent weakness. My judgment is that the rebound is unlikely to change the downward structure. The current price is 0.06285, down 1.6% in 24h, having retraced 16.26% from the 4-hour high. The trading volume is only 2.516 million, and the funding rate of 0.0050% shows longs are still paying. The open interest of 28.168 million coin-margined contracts shows no panic liquidation. The order book buy/sell ratio is 1.20, with buy orders slightly dominant, but in a downtrend, such support is easily eaten away. Risk control priority: If it rebounds to 0.06425, you can lightly try shorting, stop loss at 0.06575, target 0.06115; if it sharply falls and stabilizes near 0.06085, you can lightly try to catch the rebound, stop loss at 0.05955, target 0.06345. Single position should not exceed 5% of total funds; if stop loss is hit, you must exit unconditionally.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.——
$SLX#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $SLX The project team proactively admitted their mistake, which is rare in the crypto space.
Ozzy, the founder of PONS, responded to the buyback doubts yesterday by first apologizing, then explaining the mechanism in detail.
In simple terms, there are three things.
The buyback and burn now run automatically; anyone can trigger the bot and even earn a small reward.
The fund withdrawal is changed to a 7-day cycle; after withdrawal, the buyback and burn continue.
The buyback speed is 2e per hour, corresponding to about $950,000 in the fund pool.
What I care about most is the last point.
The money is divided into two pools: one for current purchases, one reserved for the next round.
This shows the team is at least thinking about "how to sustain," not just going all in at once.
My attitude is somewhat positive, but don’t get ahead of yourself.
Apologies and upgrades are just attitudes; what really matters is whether each subsequent buyback round truly follows this pace.
No matter how well the mechanism is written, if nothing happens on-chain, it’s all for nothing.
What do you think, how many months can this automatic buyback last?
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $PONS $BTC was around 84650 in OKX spot on Saturday afternoon. It opened in Shanghai at 85330.1 at midnight, then started to decline immediately, hitting a low of 83884 in the early morning. The morning session lifted it back to around 84601, which is a rebound from the low point, not a rise then fall during the Asian session.
From midnight, it is still about 700 lower. The 24-hour high of 87238.3 is still on the board but far away now. No new macro data is expected over the weekend, so the price has first given up the area near midnight.
If it really wants to go back up, it must at least reclaim the area near 85330; if it can't, the weekend will be read as lower than midnight. The order book is thin, so fluctuations can be easily amplified.
Let's first see if 85330 can be reclaimed at close, no rush to act.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#btc #ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700, with the privacy sector's capital attraction effect spilling over. WLD, as the AI identity narrative leader, also benefits. I judge that this wave of catch-up rally is not yet over. After a 24h increase of 11.3%, the price is 0.6035, with a turnover of 518 million. Funds are clearly rotating towards the AI track. However, the order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is only 0.74, with sell orders at 193,000 outweighing buy orders at 143,000, so short-term chasing of highs requires caution. The funding rate of 0.0100% is slightly neutral, with a position of 74.065 million coin-based contracts showing no drastic increase or decrease. Bullish sentiment is moderate rather than overheated. A 4-hour distance from the low of 62.16% indicates that bottom chips have gained considerable profit, while a 1-hour distance from the high of 0% means it is contesting the previous high of 0.6112. Strategically, a pullback to 0.5785 can be lightly bought with a stop loss at 0.5585 and a target of 0.6385; if there is a volume breakout above 0.6125, then chase the long with a stop loss at 0.5945 and a target of 0.6585. Position control should be within 20%, and exit immediately on a false breakout.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.——
$WLD#NVIDIA stock price hits a new all-time high, market cap approaching $6 trillion
#ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700 $WLD #ZEC hits a new high in this cycle, approaching $1700, with the privacy sector attracting capital and diverting some mainstream funds. BTC faces short-term pressure and a pullback, but the mid-term structure remains intact. I lean towards a rebound after adjustment.
Current price 84626.3, down 2.0% in 24 hours, the high of 87239 failed to hold, the low of 83826.4 was supported. The one-hour and four-hour trends are still upward, with 10.78% room above the four-hour low. Funding rate -0.0020%, shorts slightly paying, open interest at 28,000 coins, order book top ten buy-sell ratio 4.32, buy orders clearly stronger, limited selling pressure.
Trading strategy: lightly buy on a pullback to 83935, stop loss at 83120, target 86280; if volume breaks through 86570, add position, move stop loss to 85640, target 88730. Keep position under 20%, do not hold if stop loss is broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BTC #NVIDIA stock price hits a new all-time high, market cap nears $6 trillion
#ZEC hits a new high in this cycle, approaching $1700 $BTC I’ve held this position for around 2 days, and $ZEC has already moved roughly 6–8% lower. Let me clarify my thinking so nobody misunderstands the trade. 1️⃣ I normally prefer spot trading. After getting badly hurt by a leveraged liquidation in the past, I became much more cautious with contracts. Leverage can turn a small market move into a very large loss. 2️⃣ This time I’m keeping the leverage low. My $ZEC short is only around 3x, and the position size is intentionally small. I’m using money I$BTC Last night’s "pump and dump" probably tricked quite a few people into entering the market.
Currently, long positions are clearly overweight. Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.2065, OKX is 1.33, and the large holders’ long-short ratio even reaches 2.0224. The short-term longs are crowded; if the price breaks below $83,000, it could further amplify long stop-loss pressure.
For now, be cautious and don’t rush to chase orders. Focus on watching whether $83,000 can hold.
$ETH $ZECBurning continues, but what really needs to wait for is buying demand, not the next poster.
$BEAT: About 1.23 million tokens were burned from September 21 to 28, with weekly revenue around $113,000. Revenue and burning coexist, which is indeed more practical than just talking about music + AI. But don’t just look at the number of tokens: the lower the coin price, the more tokens the same amount of dollars can buy to burn. If paid revenue does not continue to grow, the burn figures might just mirror the price decline. Only if the revenue curve also rises does the logic become stronger.
$BICO: Paying transaction fees on behalf of users is a smart design. New users don’t have to buy another coin first, lowering the operational threshold and possibly improving retention. But the cost hasn’t disappeared; it’s just shifted from users to the application side. If the users gained through subsidies have long-term value, then adoption is justified; if it’s only relying on promotions to boost volume, the hype will be discounted.
$HYPE: Oscillating around 90, about -2.8% over the week. Good platform business doesn’t mean the token should immediately rebound after every pullback. Business and entry price should be viewed separately. 90 can be treated as an observation point first; if rebounds consistently fail to hold, it indicates selling pressure remains. No need to rush to conclusions tonight.
On the macro side, US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, so risk appetite may also fluctuate. Burning, subsidies, and quotes ultimately have to be tested by cash flow and buying demand.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 美国现货ETF已经连续五个交易日净流入、5日累计26.322亿美元，但BTC这一周跌了2.76%。钱一直在进，价格却在退——到底谁在定价？ 先看三个变量。第一，资金面仍然是正的：9月21日单日净流入14.042亿美元，9月22日2.493亿、9月23日3.502亿、9月24日1.93亿，最近5个交易日合计约26.322亿美元，连续五个交易日为正；第二，价格却在退：BTC现报83,559.8美元，24小时跌1.07%，近一周跌2.76%，距离20日区间上沿87,399还差约4.6%；第三，宏观在给不同的信号：美元指数跌破101来到100.97（-0.32%），但黄金现货同步回落到4,214.5美元（COMEX 4,245.2，-1.76%），标普500则涨0.51%报7,743.41。 这三组数字放在一起，答案其实很清晰：短期价格不是被"资金净流入"推动的，而是被**边际卖压**和**杠杆结构**推动的。ETF的26亿美元是配置盘按比例做的匀速申购，它提供的是托底；而决定一周涨跌的，是那些快进快出的杠杆仓位、早期持有者的兑现，以及宏观事件带来的风险偏好摆动。当配置盘的资金量小于短线资金的Actually, this market is essentially a casino!
Looking back at the trades I've made over the past few years, I've had big wins and big losses, but in the end, after all the ups and downs, it all went to fees.
Since entering this market, my heart feels worse and worse, with frequent shortness of breath and various minor ailments repeatedly appearing in me!
I consider myself someone with good risk control; I rarely put actual leverage above 3x, but I still break my own promises. At the very beginning, after losing everything, I even tried taking out loans—taking out loans was an unconscious act at that moment.
I used to mock those who lost everything trading crypto, wondering why they let themselves fall so low. Until later, I realized I was no different from them. Fortunately, I’m still a student, so even if I lost all my money, the amount wouldn’t be very large!
But this has already impacted my personal financial planning for the new year. When $ETH was empty shorted at 3000, I watched it rise to 4000 and then close to 5000. Along the way, I added to my position countless times but still couldn’t hold on till the end.
I originally thought my luck had turned this year, or that I had reached enlightenment. I almost broke even and even made a big profit, but the final outcome was still liquidation. These past two years have been full of ups and downs, 😞 I’m almost forgetting the vows I made when I first entered this circle.
Because gamblers don’t remember the promises they once made! Just like I’ve already forgotten my promise to only trade spot.
I still know that even if I stop now, my life would still be perfect—I’m still that 985 graduate student—but I feel like I can’t go back. This must be my fate!The focus of the PONS controversy has finally been clarified: it's not that there was no buyback and burn, but that there were issues with the previous mechanism for fund claiming and buyback pacing.
On October 3rd, PONS founder Ozzy responded to community doubts, stating that the buyback and burn process has now been automated, allowing anyone to trigger the bot to execute it and receive a small reward. The team is also upgrading the contract, with the new mechanism automatically claiming funds every 7 days and then continuously performing buyback and burn over the next 7 days.
Currently, the buyback rate was previously set at 2e per hour, corresponding to about $950,000 in funds in the Splitter. Future funds will be split into two parts: one is the Active Buyback Vault executing the buyback, and the other is reserved funds for the next cycle.
What really matters this time is not "how much is bought per hour," but whether the buyback mechanism can be continuous, transparent, and verifiable.
The transmission logic is:
Protocol revenue → funds enter buyback pool → automatic buyback of PONS → token burn → circulating supply decreases → if demand remains unchanged, supply side contracts.
But there is a key premise here: burning reduces supply but does not automatically create demand. The official PONS documentation also clearly states that buyback and burn itself does not guarantee a price increase.
Therefore, I am more concerned with the subsequent on-chain data rather than just the founder's statements.
First, whether the funds in the Splitter are normally entering the buyback on a 7-day cycle;
Second, whether the actual buyback amount and burn quantity are continuously increasing;
Third, protocol transactionsThe stablecoin market cap has recently rebounded by $4 billion, now reaching a total size of $270 billion!
This indicates that off-exchange funds are slowly entering, and the market is warming up.
However, this recovery is still somewhat mild, still $14 billion short of the May peak.
If subsequent funds don't keep up, relying on this amount of money to push Bitcoin to new highs will be very difficult.
$BTC $ETH $CRCL Wealth accumulation actually has three stages.
The first stage, when your principal hasn't grown yet, don't spend every day studying how to double your investments.
At this time, the most valuable thing is not the rate of return, but your labor ability and earning ability.
The second stage, after you have a certain principal, you can't rely solely on a fixed salary.
At this stage, you need to start thinking, find those obviously mispriced opportunities in the market, and once discovered, dare to act on them, making money through cognitive differences.
The third stage, when your capital is already large enough, you shouldn't constantly think about outsmarting the market.
At this time, what really matters is to see the trend clearly, stand on the side of the historical big direction, and let the era help you make money.
This logic was actually summarized more than two thousand years ago by Sima Qian in "Records of the Grand Historian · Biography of Merchants":
"Without wealth, rely on physical strength; with little wealth, rely on intelligence; when wealthy, rely on trends."
When you have no money, rely on physical strength; after having some money, rely on brainpower; when you have a lot of money, rely on trends.
In short, wealth growth has never been about using a single strategy to the end.NiuLai dropped quite sharply today.
The price is now around $0.086, down more than 12% in 24 hours, with an intraday low even hitting 0.0826.
A few days ago, it was fluctuating around 0.11–0.12, and on September 13th, it even surged to a high of 0.162. Calculated from the peak, it has retraced nearly half.
But there’s a data point I find quite interesting.
NiuLai’s current market cap is about $86 million, with a 24-hour trading volume still over $24 million. The price is falling, but trading hasn’t died off, indicating there’s still considerable capital turnover at this level.
Also, unlike many purely on-chain small Meme tokens, it has already been listed on Binance spot, and later integrated with Earn, Swap, leverage, and VIP lending. The trading access points are actually quite complete.
So now, when I look at NiuLai, the focus is no longer on “whether it can return to 0.16.”
First, let’s see if it can hold around 0.08.
If after a big drop the volume remains, and the selling pressure can be absorbed near 0.08, I will continue to watch for a possible second launch opportunity.
But if 0.08 is also broken down with volume, then don’t rush to buy in.
What Meme tokens fear most is never the drop itself, but that no one plays after the drop.
At present, NiuLai hasn’t reached that point yet. $BTC Have you seen this monthly BTC liquidation heatmap?
Looking closely at the chip distribution, the 75000‑79000 range has accumulated quite a few positions pending liquidation. If the price falls back to this range in the future, it would be a very cost-effective window for buying the dip.
Currently, the market has not yet formed a clear and stable operational structure, and there is no definite one-sided trend to rely on. Compared to positioning for mid-to-long-term holdings, seizing fleeting short-term opportunities is more suitable for the current environment.
However, short-term trading especially tests self-discipline. When the market oscillates back and forth, it's easy to impulsively open trades frequently. Overtrading only wastes principal and risks getting caught in liquidation waves. I have recently been deliberately controlling my trade frequency, patiently waiting for the price to approach the favored range before considering long positions, and otherwise calmly observing.
Before the trend becomes clear, maintaining a steady pace and protecting your positions is far more important than chasing scattered small profits.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% PONS got slammed again today.
It has now dropped to around $0.42, down more than 20% in 24 hours, retreating nearly 45% from the high of 0.7758 on September 18.
What’s even more frustrating is that the overall market isn’t actually that bad today. BTC has bounced back to around 86,000, but PONS keeps falling on its own, so we can’t entirely blame the market.
I noticed a noteworthy data point: there’s a whale on Hyperliquid currently holding about 14.85 million $PONS short positions, with a position value of roughly $6.26 million, floating profit already exceeding $2.1 million, and they’re still adding to the short today.
But I’m not ready to write off PONS just yet.
What’s really been strong for Pons so far is the trading volume and fees on Robinhood Chain; it’s not just a meme propped up by sentiment. The real question the market has now is whether that previous high activity can be sustained.
Especially since the early Gas subsidies on Robinhood Chain have ended, the remaining trading volume going forward actually has higher intrinsic value than before.
So for now, I’m watching PONS without rushing to guess if 0.42 is the bottom.
I’m focusing on two things first: when the big short sellers start reducing their positions, and whether Pons’ own trading volume and fees can hold steady. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly drop, and Bitcoin falls instead? My short position is finally about to break even!
Nonfarm data surprises—why does BTC fall instead of rise? Plain explanation of the truth:
1️⃣ Buy the rumor, sell the fact: The price was pulled from 83,000 to 87,000 before the data release; whales used the good news to offload $2.5 billion, cashing out chips, turning the good news into a trap.
2️⃣ Geopolitical black swan: Iran attacked an oil tanker, causing safe-haven funds to instantly withdraw, embracing gold and the dollar.
3️⃣ High leverage hunted down: The 87,000 level was tested twice but failed; $433 million long positions liquidated, triggering a chain reaction stampede; ETF inflows ended after 9 days.
From the heart:
The hard-earned money we make at the bottom layer must never be risked on high-leverage one-sided bets during macro data releases. Sharp spikes can cause double liquidations back and forth! Spot holders should hold their base positions, play dead, and wait for the wind to come. As long as you don’t add leverage, volatility is just a paper drawdown. Protect your principal—staying alive is better than anything! $BTC $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Analysis on the Possibility of Sideways Movement in October and the Impact of Midterm Elections Breaking the Pattern
The overall crypto market is expected to move sideways in October 2026, with key turning points potentially triggered or broken by the midterm elections. It is recommended to gradually exercise caution starting from October 20:
· 10/20: China's LPR, Federal Reserve enters FOMC blackout period, risk control before elections begins;
· 10/27—10/28: FOMC interest rate decision + press conference;
· 10/29: US Q3 GDP preliminary data, Bank of Japan meeting window;
· 10/30: US September PCE, CME crypto options expiration, month-end rebalancing;
· 11/2: US October ISM Manufacturing PMI;
· 11/3: US midterm election voting day;
· 11/4: US Treasury refinancing announcement;
· 11/6: US October nonfarm payrolls.
Therefore, from October 20 onwards, leverage and positions should be reduced, stablecoins should be held, and avoid betting on a one-sided move to guard against election night spikes, widened spreads, and thinning liquidity. Avoid heavy positions betting on the result on November 3, as a tight election race may delay the outcome by several days. It is more prudent to enter in batches after the election results become clear and after macro events such as FOMC, PCE, and nonfarm payrolls have settled.
Also pay attention to: BTC/ETH spot ETF fund flows, SEC/CFTC regulatory developments, stablecoin supply and premiums/discounts, funding rates, open interest, and liquidation clusters. The midterm election is the main catalyst but not the only variable; the market often prices in advance, so November 3 may not necessarily be safe Brothers, BTC has returned to just above 84,000, and ETH has also dropped back to 2,664. After a whole week of turmoil, it feels like a dream.
Last night I still thought it would go up, but once the data came out, the market digested it and immediately turned sour. I woke up this morning to a sharp drop and was completely stunned; my position was almost at the liquidation price.
I used to think that if you got the direction right, holding for a long time didn’t matter. Now I realize that saying is the most harmful. Holding too long makes you start making excuses: at first you can cut losses, then it becomes "wait a bit more," then "it will definitely come back," and finally you even add to your position to lower the cost.
The most ridiculous thing is that when you first open a position, you clearly know when you’re wrong and run, but after holding for a few days, you seem like a different person.
So this time I won’t fight with myself. If I can’t hold long-term, I won’t hold. From today on, I’ll switch to day trading, closing positions the same day, never leaving positions to the next day’s emotions and black swans.
What do you think is the hardest thing to change in trading: the technique or your own personality?
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH $ZEC The most critical pressure on BTC right now may not necessarily come from insufficient new funds, but from the locked-in chips above waiting to be unlocked.
On October 3rd, Glassnode stated that currently two types of Bitcoin holders are overall still at a floating loss: holders for 1-2 years have an average cost of about $97,000, and holders for 6-12 months about $89,000.
These two cost ranges are very worth paying attention to.
Because for investors who bought at high prices, as long as BTC approaches their cost price again, their first reaction may not be to continue adding positions, but rather "finally breaking even, let's sell a little first."
Glassnode observed that investors who bought at high prices during the 2025 upward phase have recently been the most active sellers, with daily outflows already at this year's high; conversely, investors who bought during the subsequent downward phase show significantly less selling pressure.
Simply put, holding BTC at different costs leads to completely different behaviors.
High locked-in chips → price approaches cost → increased willingness to break even → potential selling pressure rises.
Low-cost chips → lower cost → thicker safety cushion → lower short-term selling willingness.
So the real problem BTC needs to solve next is whether it can absorb this batch of "break-even positions" above.
If the price rises while volume expands, it indicates that new buying is strong enough and the market can absorb this selling pressure, then after the chips complete turnover, it is actually beneficial for further upward movement.
But if the price approaches these holders' cost ranges and volume expands without price rising, it indicates locked-in positions are starting to be concentratedly realized, and short-term pressure is easily formed.
My judgment is, right now $SPCX is really strong. The current trend is basically shooting for Mars.
The best decision I made recently was to cut losses at the 142 level.
Otherwise, judging by the current trend, I would be close to liquidation now.
After the big rocket opened, it kept dropping for several days.
The whole market was in a slump, so I started shorting $SPCX.
The opening price for my short position was around 132, then I kept adding positions up to 139.
Then when it dropped to 142, I chose to cut losses and exit, overall at a loss.
Now seeing this situation, it’s not dropping but keeps rising nonstop.
My rational side tells me to try going long this wave, it might reach 160.
But now I’m itching to short again, the bears never surrender.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Wow, the unrealized profits are surging again, this roller coaster ride is making my heart race!
Damn it!
Small real position rolling for trading
Currently holding a long position in $ETH, unrealized profits have reached 18.11%. Previously, profits were given back and forth, but finally pulled back up a bit.
$BTC surged to 87239 then pulled back, now hovering around 84600 with repeated grinding. The four-hour indicators have started to weaken, bulls don’t have enough momentum to push to previous highs.
ETH is oscillating along with the market; without a market breakout, it’s hard for it to make a strong bullish candle on its own.
What’s most frustrating now is this kind of market: holding profitable positions, afraid to close and get stopped out, but also afraid of a pullback wiping out all profits.
The market sentiment is mostly bullish, but there’s heavy selling pressure at high levels, so we can’t be blindly optimistic. I’m not planning to add more positions now, just holding the current ones is enough. If BTC holds 83800, bulls still have a chance; once it breaks down effectively, it’s time to take profits and run, no fighting to the end. In a high-level market, locking in profits is the only real gain.
#BTC surges then enters high-level consolidation #ETH moves in sync with the market
$BTC $ETH$BTC &$ETH $ETH
ETH/BTC Breaks Long-Term Downtrend: Altseason Awaits BTC Confirmation
ETH/BTC has broken above a nearly five-year downtrend, marking a major technical signal for this cycle.
But altcoins usually need BTC to lead first. If BTC holds above $87K and breaks higher, capital could increasingly flow into altcoins. $DOGE's 15% momentum over the past 30 days has faded, with the price falling back to around 0.09.
DogeOS testnet aims to make DOGE not just a payment method but also a DeFi settlement layer, which sounds like an upgraded narrative; however, Bitwise's DOGE ETF was shut down last month, and institutional channels are narrowing.
Still no cash flow, no staking yield, and the so-called settlement layer depends on selected operators rather than miners, meaning low real value; a single tweet from Musk can make or break it.
Pure beta with no cash flow, holding 40% position. Defend 0.088 and push for 0.098; reduce position if it breaks 0.084. DOGE wants to evolve from a joke to infrastructure, but it still only has meme-level confidence in its pocket.