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This hit really hurts a bit.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
babala's $ETH long position was opened at 2635, and now the price has dropped to around 2575. A price difference of over sixty points is hitting my position, and the loss number looks pretty ugly.
First, let's talk about why it suddenly dropped this time.
First, $BTC fell from around 86000 to about 83300, indicating that this is not just ETH weakening alone, but the entire crypto market is de-risking. Recently, crude oil prices rose, US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, and the market is once again worried about inflation pressure, so funds naturally withdraw first from high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies.
Second, ETH itself is under more obvious pressure than BTC.
The US spot ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $202 million on October 6, and has been outflowing for several consecutive trading days. Without institutional funds to support it, when ETH fell from around 2700, it was naturally easier to break through support.
Third, after the price broke below 2600 and the previous 2640–2660 support zone, some contract longs were forced to exit, further accelerating the decline. So this time there are both macro factors and ETH's own weaker funds and the chain reaction after breaking support.
Next, the most important area is 2550–2500.
Around 2550 is the first short-term defense line, and 2500 is the structural support left after the previous breakout. If it can stop falling here, ETH has a chance to do an oversold recovery first, but it must retake 2600 and then break through 2635–2660 for the short-term trend to truly stabilize.
2635 is both babala's cost and the resistance to face during the rebound.
If the price never recovers above 2600 and BTC continues to lose 83000, then the probability of ETH testing 2500 again will increase; once 2500 is effectively broken, then watch out for 2450 or even around 2400 below.
Conversely, if BTC retakes above 84000 and ETH holds 2550 and recovers 2600, this long position will have a chance to slowly recover, then look at 2635 and 2700.
It would be a lie to say it doesn't hurt.
The most tormenting thing is not the drop itself, but that just after opening the long, it quickly smashed through the support.
But babala won't take hope as judgment now. First see if 2550 can hold, then if 2600 can be recovered.
This position is indeed losing badly at the moment; hopefully ETH won't keep stabbing the wound further.Looking only at $MINA this round: shorted at 0.12695, current price 0.09609, floating profit 494.36% (20x). The market dropped from 0.17 to 0.09225, with large volume at the bottom but the price couldn't rise, indicating bulls took heavy losses catching the falling knife. Now reported at 0.09609, slightly rebounding 1.94%, purely a breather after a sharp drop.
The real situation now:
You have four short positions floating simultaneously, all profitable. The biggest danger is not just $MINA alone, but the overall position resonance risk. If the market (BTC or ETH) suddenly pulls up with a 15-minute bullish candle, these four assets will spike and rebound together, causing a stampede of profit-taking liquidations and a very violent pullback.
The straightforward advice:
Stop calculating how much more you can earn; calculate how much drawdown would hurt you. Push the breakeven lines of all four positions very close below their entry prices (or just withdraw your principal and leave the profits to run). Watch $MINA closely at the 0.10 level; if it can't hold above 0.10, keep a small base position and watch 0.08. If volume surges and it holds above 0.10 with a long lower shadow, exit completely.Looking at the $ETH chart, it really feels like the calm before the storm, making me uneasy.
Just now, Ethereum went through a brutal shakeout, plummeting from a high of 2750 straight down to 2600, losing over a hundred points in an instant! It has barely bounced back to around 2650. It looks stable, but there are hidden undercurrents beneath.
Why so quiet? Because the FOMC meeting minutes are about to be released, and the big players have already dumped this wave of negative expectations in advance. Once the key support at 2600 breaks, the short-term bullish structure is actually destroyed. Now the whole network is waiting for the shoe to drop.
At times like this, don’t bet on direction, and definitely don’t try to catch a falling knife! I’m watching lightly now, waiting for the panic selling to fully exhaust or for a clear reversal signal before getting in. Better to miss out than to make a wrong move.Here’s a sharper, more natural version with stronger flow and a punchier ending:
CORE Reality Check
$CORE I’ve said it before: if this coin were truly going to rise, would it really need to fall hundreds of times over four years, giving retail investors endless opportunities to “buy the bottom,” only to eventually surge and make everyone rich?
That logic simply doesn’t hold.
admitting that the situation isn’t what you hoped it would be.#DailyOrbit Please, please rise a little more!
For the sake of those more than 60% retail investors, just a tiny bit more.
I’m not asking you to go too high, 2600 is enough, at 2600 I want to add to my short position and roll it once.
Yesterday’s guillotine candle completely shattered the bulls’ last illusions.
$ETH dropped straight from 2699 to 2552, now it’s squeezed around 2567.
Look, this sharp drop released huge volume, what does that mean?
It means the stampede has already started.
All moving averages are in a bearish alignment; every slight rebound is just setting up for a deeper drop next time.
Why do I say wait until 2600 to add shorts?
Because that is the neckline resistance after the breakdown, also the “psychological defense line” for those 60% bulls.
Retail investors always think after a big drop there will be a rebound; the manipulative whales exploit this hope by pulling it up slightly near 2600 to lure retail into adding positions, then slap it down hard.
I’m not in a hurry; I entered my short at 2689, now floating with 45.75% profit.
I’ll hold this profit as a buffer, wait for it to rebound to 2600, then load up my bullets.
The current strategy is simple: don’t chase shorts, wait for a rebound to around 2600-2620 to decisively add shorts, set stop loss above 2700, target first at 2450.
As long as these more than 60% retail investors don’t blow their leverage clean, the manipulative whales won’t stop.
Remember, don’t try to guess the bottom in a downtrend; the bottom is never guessed, it’s built from the corpses of the bulls by the whales.
Wait for it to rise, then we short in, let’s see who laughs last.
$BTC
$ZEC
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ $PUMP perpetual contract 50x short position, opening average price 0.006419, mark price 0.006112, floating profit +239.13%.
Meme coin market is entirely driven by market sentiment. After a surge, volume immediately shows a gap, and the bullish narrative is hard to sustain. Following the trend, reverse to open a short position, betting on the retreat in this round of sentiment decline.
Currently, half the position has been taken profit to secure some gains steadily. The remaining base position will have its stop loss moved up to 0.0064 to ensure break-even defense. If volume expands downward breaking through the 0.0060 level, expect a deeper drop; once the market enters a low-volume sideways consolidation, close all positions immediately and exit without further fighting. $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资 Thanks to the official OKX support. I haven't done much for now, just posted some articles and opinions. $23 weekly reward [clap][clap] really unexpected. From the first post going viral with over 130,000 views to now, there are probably one or two posts with over ten thousand views. The followers have also increased, and I have some private messages. Keep it up, keep it up.
Also, a unified reply: indeed some brothers asked what to do if always liquidated. Actually, it's not that you can't play. I'm just a bit tired of short-term trading. Usually, find a box range, an oscillating box structure up and down. Look at the 1-hour and 4-hour box range top and bottom, go long or short accordingly. Take profit is placed inside the reverse box. The stop loss to take profit ratio is about 1:3 or 1:4. But the fear is having too much position at once, causing a collective surge like today. If the margin isn't much, you can't hold on. It's best to keep a single position at 1% base, at most add up to 5%. Four or six positions is the limit, otherwise, you'll get blown out directly.
I try to reply to private messages, but let me say first, I don't have much technical skill, just experience. I've paid $75,000 in tuition. I also think it's time to have a breakthrough day, haha (◍•ᴗ•◍) #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #霍尔木兹油轮接连遇袭，美伊谈判仍在继续 Here’s a cleaner, more natural version with stronger flow and a more confident trading tone:
Writing
$DOGE is pulling back, but the broader market sentiment remains firmly in the greed zone.
The Fear & Greed Index is still at 73, showing that overall risk appetite remains strong. Against this backdrop, DOGE falling from $0.105 to around $0.090 looks less like a trend reversal and more like a healthy consolidation.#DailyOrbit The shadowless lamp above the operating table hasn't gone out yet, but the monitor is already screaming. The 30-year US Treasury yield, this aorta, tore directly to 5.706% intraday — the most severe blood pressure spike since 2002. The 10-year yield at 5.349% also hit a 21-year high. This is not an ordinary arrhythmia; the entire yield curve is experiencing an aortic dissection.
Let's first look at the vital signs. The September ISM Services PMI is 54.9, in the expansion zone, indicating the body is still active and peripheral circulation hasn't stopped. But what really alarms me is the price component: 72.6 pushed all the way to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. This is an infection indicator rising instead of falling. The myocardium continues to consume oxygen; there is no sign of inflammation subsiding.
The Treasury Secretary has spoken, saying the yield rise is a global bond market synchronicity, with no obvious capital flow into German or Japanese bonds. Translated into surgical terms: this is not unilateral pleural effusion; this is systemic edema. You can't find an isolated bleeding point to suture because the entire coagulation system is collapsing. When every chamber is bleeding, the surgeon's hands have nowhere to land.
What is $xSOXL? It's a triple-leveraged long on semiconductors. In hemodynamics, this is a cardiotonic drug that triples cardiac output. When the infection indicator is uncontrolled, giving a triple dose can maintain blood pressure short-term but directly pushes toward multi-organ failure long-term.
Where is the real lesion? The market is repricing "higher for longer." Long-end rates are the heart's afterload. With afterload continuously rising, the left ventricle must use greater pressure to eject blood — each beat wears down the myocardial wall. The valuation structure grown under the past fifteen years of low rates is essentially a chronic dilated cardiomyopathy, barely maintaining ejection fraction through volume load. Now the afterload suddenly rises, pushing compensatory mechanisms to the edge.
I noticed a detail: no obvious capital shift to German or Japanese bonds. This indicates the problem isn't a local bypass fix but a systemic rise in total vascular resistance. Distal perfusion is all down.
For high-beta leveraged assets, this is not a pullback; it's hypoperfusion. Triple leverage during arrhythmia is not an accelerator but a defibrillator set to the wrong mode.
As a surgeon, I judge only one thing: can the infection source be controlled? The 74.0 price index is the colony count in the culture dish. It is still growing.
The valve hasn't been replaced yet, the sternum hasn't been closed. #US30YYieldTops5.7% $XRP This is a 100x short position, opened at 1.5077, currently at 1.4283, with an unrealized profit of 524.64%. Seeing the green numbers looks great, but my heartbeat is much faster than when I opened the position—consecutive wins plus huge profits are the most dangerous; the smoother it goes, the easier it is to get careless, and with 100x leverage, a small dip can trigger liquidation.
On the 4-hour chart, after topping at 1.5613, it dropped continuously, touched 1.4222 with a weak rebound, now at 1.4283 (24h down 0.38%). Volume is 371 million with 259 million units, bottom is low volume sideways, the support is very weak, and the ETF bearish news has no capital confidence.
It’s hovering near the previous low of 1.4222, with all short positions below in profit. What does 100x mean? A 2% wick (pulled up to 1.457) can wipe out most of the profit instantly. Absolutely no adding to the position, trailing stop locked at breakeven. Watching the 1.48-1.50 resistance zone; if volume shrinks and it can’t hold above, keep some base position to stay in the game; if volume surges breaking 1.50 or after breaking 1.4222 with a long lower shadow and recovery, take all profits immediately without hesitation.$LRC has since dipped to $0.00989 after yesterday's sell at $0.0103-$0.0104 yielded +2.61R.
Stop loss at $0.0104 was hit before the take-profit.
Confidence: 51%.
ggIn the next 1-2 hours, keep an eye on ETH at $2,550 and BTC at $82,800. If the Asian morning session (after 8 AM) can hold these levels, it may trigger a short squeeze rebound targeting the upside at $85,000 / $2,650; if it breaks below during the early hours, there is a high probability of testing a deeper long-term chip concentration zone.1000U position, funding rate 0.1%, deducts 1U from you every 8 hours.
3 times a day equals 3U. 90U in a month. 1095U in a year.
Don't think it's exaggerated; the key is your position value, not how much money you have in your account.
For example, if you only have 100U margin, with 10x leverage, your position reaches 1000U. Funding rate 0.1%, each time is still calculated based on 1000U, directly deducting 1U. 3U a day doesn't seem much, but your principal is only 100U. After a month, the funding fee alone could consume 90U. This doesn't include transaction fees or losses from wrong directional trades.
So many people experience a strange situation: no liquidation during this period, direction is correct, but the account balance keeps dropping. Checking records, funding fees and transaction fees are deducted bit by bit. That's how perpetual contracts work. Positive funding rate means longs pay shorts. Negative funding rate means shorts pay longs. Usually settled every 8 hours; specific times and rates depend on your trading platform.
What you really need to pay attention to is that the rate is not fixed. The crazier the market, the more people on one side, the easier the rate spikes. You see 0.01% and think it's nothing, but when the market heats up, it becomes 0.05%, 0.1%, and the holding cost immediately changes. So before opening a contract, it's recommended to check: how big the position is, what the funding rate is, and when the next settlement is. Especially if you plan to hold a position for several days or even weeks, don't just calculate "how much profit you can make from price increase." First calculate how much you have to pay daily.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC whale selling pressure weakens The most dangerous moment on the chessboard is never when the opponent sacrifices the queen for a fierce attack, but when everyone is focused on the center and no one notices that you have quietly moved your rook to an open file in the corner. October 6th is that newly opened open file—the next twenty-four hours of nonstop gameplay are laid out, where products and experiences transform from blueprints into tangible moves, and the empty spots opposite are reserved for players who have yet to finish their calculations.
What does twenty-four hours nonstop mean? It means there is no longer any "closing the board" in the endgame. The market used to be like a slow chess game, with daily closes serving as breaks for both sides to regroup and recalculate; now those breaks are erased, and the candlestick chart forms an unbroken chain of pawns. Tactically, this is called "perpetual check"—not a single decisive move, but continuous pressure; whoever lacks stamina will have their pieces frozen at the board’s edge first.
The emergence of US stock tokenized assets is a standard "cross-board linkage." Traditional finance and on-chain liquidity were originally two separate boards, each with its own rules and referees; when the same piece is allowed to breathe on both boards simultaneously, arbitrageurs become the elephants that traverse the entire game—once the diagonal is opened, the time value on both sides is repriced. The key here is not the label "tokenization," but whether liquidity is backed by real holdings or merely a mirrored layer. Mirrors break; holdings do not.
Strategically, I like to view positions as a ledger of piece exchanges. Light positions in the opening phase are like the first four pawn moves—aimed not at winning but at preserving flexibility. The real midgame explosion is always reserved for the most certain move: when sentiment indicators slide from greed to fear, that is the window to sacrifice pieces for attack—giving up floating profits to gain wider lines and more initiative. In the endgame, it’s not about who captures more, but whose pawns can promote.
At this moment, market sentiment mostly remains in a state of "seeing the cards but not clearly seeing the opponent." This is a typical midgame stalemate: rook versus rook, queen versus queen, whoever moves first exposes a weakness. I don’t chase the market; I count how many moves the opponent has left and how many rounds until they complete their formation. Trends are not declared; they are forced out step by step.
Those who truly make money never place their moves in the midst of the crowd. #OKXNOW:24x7MarketEra Last night, my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary worry. When I opened the market this morning, $OKB had already moved on its own, with strong signs of funds quietly entering. Those days of sideways consolidation at the bottom were not in vain; there were always buyers below for OKB.
From 120.22 to 132.57, +205.62%, the result is clear—feeling good, brothers, this rhythm was just right.
Hold as long as the trend is intact; if it breaks, then exit. Don’t fall in love with stocks.
Panic comes from lack of planning; losses come from overthinking.
Earlier was just hesitation, now it’s truly rewarding; this profit feels solid.
Take profit on 75% first, move the stop loss on the remaining 25% to the cost price, let the profits run if it continues to rise, don’t be greedy for the last bite.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next signal before moving—I will notify immediately.
$XRP $BNB $ARB saw some capital entering to support the initial stage of this rebound, with trading volume remaining relatively active and prices steadily rising, giving many traders the expectation that a trend reversal has arrived.
The closer to the upper resistance level, the scarcer the incremental capital entering the market, and the trading volume continues to shrink. Relying solely on existing capital makes it difficult to push the market further upward.
During the rebound, volume consistently fails to keep pace with price movement, creating a volume-price divergence, with 50x short positions entering at the pressure zone. Without volume support, the upward trend is unlikely to sustain.
Trading volume is the best measure to verify the quality of the rebound. As the rise continues with shrinking volume, the willingness of capital to chase higher diminishes. Once buying stalls, profit-taking capital that entered earlier will choose to exit in batches. $BTC $ZEC #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Don't wait for a rate cut; the Federal Reserve has no intention of stopping.
The market is still fantasizing about a "final hike," but Walsh has directly slammed the table: the current financial environment is far from restrictive.
Translated, this means — the September rate hike is not the end, not even the midpoint.
Look at some sobering data: the effective federal funds rate is 3.9%, core PCE is 3.0%, and the real interest rate is only 90 basis points. In 2006, with the same inflation level, the real interest rate was over 300 basis points higher. In other words, the Fed's "hawk claws" are still holding strong.
What's more troublesome is that the high-yield bond spread is ridiculously narrow, and the financial conditions index is relatively loose. If Wall Street doesn't feel the pain, the Fed won't stop.
What does this mean? U.S. Treasury yields will continue to act as a pump, and the valuation logic of global risk assets will be ground back down. The rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum? Just a brief illusion in a liquidity winter.
Don't bet on the Fed softening. Until real interest rates are in place, the meat grinder won't stop. It's advisable to tear up the script of heavily bottom-fishing positions first.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Before the minutes, don't rush to bottom-fish
The market just took a hit, and the rhythm isn't over yet. Tonight's Fed minutes are the core of pricing; before they are released, all rebounds can only be considered repairs, not reversals. In the past hour, the entire market liquidated about $400 million, with bulls almost completely wiped out—a typical "delever first, then discuss direction."
$BTC is currently at 83,800, with 85,000 already lost. In the short term, watch if 83,500 can hold; only if it holds is there room for a rebound. If it breaks, 82,000 will come back into view.
$ETH is weaker, currently at 2,609, down from around 2,700 yesterday. The current price is just below the giant whale buy order zone of 2,614–2,632. If the minutes are hawkish and 2,550 breaks, a forced liquidation of multi-million long positions may be triggered, targeting 2,500 below. ETH has already seen $158 million liquidated within an hour; deleveraging continues. Do not touch long positions before reclaiming 2,630.
For $SNDK, 1,740 is support, 1,680 is the hard bottom, and 1,815 is resistance. The NAND demand driven by AI servers is a long-term logic, but in tonight's market, buying on dips is much safer than chasing highs, and don't focus on just one stock.
The strategy is simple: wait for the news to land, wait for forced liquidations to clear, wait for key levels to be reclaimed. Reaching out now is likely to be a backstop for those getting liquidated. Be a bit slower; opportunities won't come just once. At 1 a.m., I scanned the gainers list; among the screen full of declines, only a few went against the trend, and $CT (Concrete) is one of them.
Today $BTC dropped to 83,400, $ETH fell nearly 5% to 2567, DOGE and UNI dropped even harder, but it actually rose about 5% in the past 24 hours, currently around 0.386 spot, with a daily trading volume of 80 million dollars. Around 4 or 5 p.m., there was a surge to 0.40 on high volume, then it hovered between 0.373 and 0.387, the market didn’t drag it down.
The contract funding rate is still negative, shorts are paying longs. My view: only a rebound above 0.40 counts as truly strong; if it falls below 0.37, this rally is over. The market is so weak, don’t hold heavy positions.
$BTC $ETH $CT #CT #Concrete #CountertrendRise
#SeptemberFOMCMinutesComingSoon, will rate hikes continue? #BTCWhaleSellingPressureWeakens, ETFFundsNetInflowForThreeConsecutiveWeeks #OKXNOW: ushering in an all-weather market era
#RiskWarning
This is not investment advice, new coins are highly volatile, manage your positions carefully. Jiyue sees no LiDAR, only Tesla
The domestic high-level intelligent driving competition is heating up, with most automakers relying on LiDAR to implement city NOA. On October 17, 2025, the Jiyue 01 completed a hands-free road test in downtown Shanghai, becoming the first mass-produced car in China to achieve high-level city intelligent driving with a pure vision solution, challenging Tesla FSD.
Tesla aggressively cut millimeter-wave radar in 2021 to bet on pure vision but has suffered from phantom braking issues. Domestic automakers have sparked a LiDAR arms race, but hardware costs are high, sensor deep fusion mass production is difficult, and most are only used as safety redundancies.
BEV and occupancy network technology raise the upper limit of pure vision 3D perception. Jiyue relies on Baidu Apollo's technical accumulation, uses Robotaxi 3D ground truth data to train models, overcomes computing power and data bottlenecks, and plans to mass-produce occupancy networks in Q4 2025.
Pure vision hardware saves money, but algorithm computing power investment is higher. Jiyue's city NOA is delivered as standard, deeply cultivating a local data closed loop based on domestic road conditions. In the domestic market, it will directly compete with Tesla, which is about to enter China, on the pure vision track. #特斯拉股价走强，无人出租车成焦点 #特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂 #特斯拉Q3交付超预期，股价一度涨约5% The pipeline through which whales have been continuously dumping chips into the centralized custody dome for three months has finally been shut off. Don't rush to celebrate—this is not good news; it's a load unloading.
I've been drawing structural diagrams for twenty years. At first glance, I never look at how bright the curtain wall is; I only check if the foundation is settling. Over the past three months, large addresses have had a continuous net inflow, equivalent to someone tirelessly stacking goods on the rooftop day and night. The stress curve of the load-bearing columns has been climbing steadily, and everyone is calculating when it will crack. Now the slope has flattened or even turned negative, indicating the worst-case scenario did not materialize, and the main beam's deflection is beginning to rebound. This is a load relief of the structure itself, not because the constructor has become stronger.
Immediately following, there has been a continuous net inflow of funds for three weeks, about 240 million worth of new concrete poured into the pile foundation. Note, this is incremental reinforcement, not the dashed line on the blueprint. The design can be drawn up to 300 floors, and the white paper can render a skyline, but only three things truly determine whether this building can stand: the bearing capacity of the pile end bearing layer, the curing age of the concrete, and the anchorage length of the rebar at the joints. Missing any one of these, and the whole structure will topple with the slightest wind.
Look at the US stock mapped target XLLY, which is essentially an external curtain wall system. The curtain wall is beautiful, but it does not bear weight. Whether the connection between it and the main structure is rigid or hinged determines whether and how much stress can be transferred to the main structure. The truth about hinged joints is: when the main structure sways, the curtain wall swings along but never shares any load with the main structure. Valuing linkage as load-bearing is a typical mistake of including decorative layers in structural calculations.
Another detail that real structural engineers watch: ETF inflows are pro-cyclical curtain wall loads—they increase when market sentiment rises and withdraw in the opposite direction during pullbacks, even amplifying the amplitude. What we fear most is not static load but resonance.
So the correct action at this moment is not to watch the market but to go to the construction site for settlement observation. Check the whale address holding cost zone—that is the bearing layer elevation; check the spot depth—that is the shear wall section; check the development team's code submission rhythm—that is the reinforcement density. If any of these are ambiguous, all the upper narratives are cantilever structures; the farther the span, the greater the bending moment at the root.
The main structure has just passed a static load test, that is a fact. But the structural defect I want to point out is: this system still has no expansion joints and no secondary seismic defense line. The so-called pressure relief is just the wind temporarily stopping.
My judgment is: the foundation has just stopped sinking, and the settlement observation pile has only just been driven in. #BTCWhalePressureEases $FIL This is a 50x short position, opened at 1.1583, currently at 1.0334, with an unrealized profit of 537.42%. The profit is huge, but after consecutive wins, greed is the biggest enemy; keep your hands tighter than when opening the position.
On the 4-hour chart, after peaking at 1.2098, there have been consecutive bearish candles breaking through the 1.08 support level, dipping to 1.0281, then a weak rebound to 1.0334 (24h down 0.63%). Volume is 76.46 million, with 73.99 million tokens traded, showing reduced volume and sideways consolidation. Without capital support, this established token is just an empty shell.
Hovering near the previous low of 1.0281, a 2% spike down at 50x leverage (rebounding to 1.05) can drain most of the profits. Absolutely no adding to the position; use a trailing stop to lock in profits and protect the principal. Watch the 1.08 resistance zone, keep half the position during low volume; if volume surges breaking 1.08 or dropping below 1.0281 with a wick, close the entire position. For profit positions, the goal is to secure gains—better to earn less than to get trapped. At 50x leverage, surviving is more important than making aggressive profits.The Federal Reserve's early morning minutes are about to be released, with three possible market scenarios. Are you ready to respond?? Three scenario simulations
① Hawkish (reserving room for further rate hikes)
US Treasury yields rise, the dollar strengthens.
-BTC: Support under pressure, prone to breaking downwards;
-ETH: Decline greater than BTC, high elasticity amplifies pullback;
-Altcoin funds flee, sharp drop risk increases;
-Gold XAU: Real interest rates rise, gold price weakens.
② Neutral (wait-and-see attitude, all depends on subsequent data)
Bull and bear battle, market range-bound. BTC fluctuates back and forth, ETH and altcoins follow the market with no clear direction.
③ Dovish (implying the end of the rate hike cycle)
Dollar weakens, risk assets recover.
-BTC tests resistance upwards; ETH rebounds stronger; altcoins broadly rise and recover; gold strengthens in sync. #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC $ETH $ZEC October 8th BTCUSDT trading idea and operation suggestion: rebound repair, short under pressure.
BTCUSDT previously surged to 2701 and faced resistance, quickly plunging, with a low probe down to 2550. Currently, it is a rebound repair after a sharp drop, synchronized with BTCUSDT structure. This rebound is just a consolidation during the downtrend; the overall bearish trend has not changed. Expect resistance at the rebound and continue to see pressure and pullback; do not treat it as a reversal to go long.
Operation suggestion
Enter short positions in the 2585-2575 range during the rebound, target 2560-2550, if it breaks further, look down to 2530. #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ $BTC $ETH Single Coin Contract Movement｜Last 15 Minutes
$FIL final segment active trades shifted from predominantly selling to predominantly buying: overall active buying at 36.6%, last five minutes at 78.3%, price change during this segment -0.05%. The shift in trades has not yet corresponded to a significant price rise or fall; the recent price net change is limited.82K守不守得住，今晚大概很多人睡不着 你有没有发现，真正让人焦虑的从来不是跌，而是价格卡在关键位反复试探？ 我盯着BTC在82K附近来回磨的时候，那种感觉就像看一个人站在门口，不进也不退。这个位置之所以重要，是因为它同时是短期持仓者的成本防线和前期突破的确认点。守住，说明抛压被消化，结构还在；丢了，80K就会从"支撑"变成"磁吸"。 ETH那边更微妙。2.60K是情绪分水岭，不是技术上的铁底，但心理权重很重。一旦失守，2.50K的买单厚度明显不够，容易触发链上清算和短线止损的连锁反应。反过来，如果能重新站上2.70K，2.80K的抛压区会变成踏空者的补票窗口。 SOL的115到117区间是这轮小币种风险偏好的温度计。它比BTC和ETH更诚实——如果SOL守不住115，说明资金不是在挑币，而是在收缩敞口。那时候110不是终点，而是山寨整体估值下修的开始。 偏多的路径很清楚：BTC收回85K，ETH站回2.70K，SOL突破121，三者同步确认，才能说风险偏好回来了。但在这之前，任何单币种的反弹都可能是诱多。 被忽略的风险是：美债收益率如果继续挂在5.7%上方，加密的反弹会被压制成"修复One more hour to go before the Federal Reserve's policy meeting announcement. Currently, most of the market expects the interest rates to remain unchanged. We won't be making any trades tonight. Avoid the news.
Why? Because entering the market at this time is like crossing the street with your eyes closed. You might think you've judged the direction correctly, but one sentence can make the market jump wildly, with both bulls and bears getting hit, and you end up being proven wrong repeatedly. To be clear, in the few minutes around the policy meeting, technical analysis basically fails; it's all about emotions and capital battling it out. As small retail investors, there's no need to risk real money on that uncertainty.
Some might think, what if I guess right? But the problem is, guessing right is luck, guessing wrong is a real loss. The worst thing in trading is mistaking luck for skill. Tonight, let's just watch quietly, wait for the news to land, for the market to digest it, for the trend to become clear. There will be plenty of opportunities tomorrow and the day after. The market moves every day, but the capital is limited. Preserving your ammunition is better than anything.
So tonight, just one word: wait. Wait for the hype to pass, wait for the market to calm down, wait until we understand what's going on before making a move. No rush for the moment.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% $BTC $ETH Interest Rate Cut Dream Shattered, Leverage Avalanche: When the "Minsky Moment" Meets Soros Reflexivity, BTC Bulls Are Sleepless Tonight
US Treasury yields soar combined with oil prices breaking $100, the market reassesses inflation pressure, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations cool sharply, directly shattering the liquidity fantasy supporting this rally.
With a long-term bull market, market risk perception dulls, traders continuously increase leverage to go long, gradually sliding into speculative financing, exactly as Minsky said: stability breeds fragility. Once macro expectations reverse, the fragile leverage system faces a test.
The coin price breaks key support, triggering massive long contract liquidations, and automatic sell orders keep pushing prices down. Soros reflexivity negative feedback loop starts: decline breeds panic, panic triggers selling, selling further depresses the market, pessimistic expectations self-reinforce, turning leverage liquidations from a market outcome into the core driving force of the decline.
This is a local deleveraging in the crypto market, not a macro-level systemic crisis, but enough to sound the alarm for everyone. Leverage amplifies gains in the uptrend, but in the downturn, it becomes a stranglehold.
The market has entered a negative feedback phase; do not rush to bottom fish. In a leveraged market, survival always comes first.
#BTC #MinskyMoment #SorosReflexivity #LeverageLiquidationRaising the calldata floor price is forcing big data to take the correct path
EIP-7976 proposes to increase the minimum pricing for calldata in data-intensive transactions, aiming to reduce the extreme execution payload size that a single block might carry. Ordinary DeFi or token transfers usually incur most costs from EVM execution and may not trigger this floor price; the real impact is on transactions with minimal computation but a large number of bytes packed in. Official analysis shows the impact is concentrated on a few data usage patterns, rather than an average surcharge on all users.
This adjustment does not imply that data has no value but distinguishes its usage. Rollups already have a dedicated channel called blob for publishing large-scale data. Continuing to use calldata to occupy execution block bandwidth could create propagation pressure after the Gas limit increases. Setting a higher floor price for data can shrink the worst-case block size, making it easier for ordinary nodes to receive and verify within time limits, and also encourages applications to migrate batch data to more appropriate markets.
For $ETH holders, the criterion should not be just "some types of transactions became more expensive." It should be whether this brings a safer Gas limit space and whether wallets and RPCs can correctly estimate the new floor price. If tools are not updated, users might submit transactions with insufficient Gas; if applications can smoothly switch to blobs, the long-term capacity will be healthier. Precise charging aligns better with settlement layer logic than simply suppressing all fees indiscriminately.🔷 $TRX : from ICO $70M to payment leader
• Founded by Justin Sun in 2017, ICO $70M
• ATH $0.3004 (January 2018), currently $0.16-0.25
• Q2 2026: 52% of all USDT transfers <$1000 via Tron
• Leader in daily stablecoin payment volume
• Nile testnet: post-quantum signatures (NIST standards)
• Protection against quantum computing
• SEC lawsuit 2023, Circle discontinued USDC (February 2024)
🧠 52% of USDT transfers <$1000 via Tron = leader.
❓ Will it maintain payment leadership?👇The real target of $ETH's sharp drop has been found, just $50 away from liquidation!
On-chain data shows that Big Brother Maji is holding tightly to a 25x leveraged long position of 38,000 ETH, with a total value of up to $96.6 million. The opening price was 2682, the liquidation price is at 2511.59, and the current price is 2567, just over $50 away from liquidation.
Carefully analyzing the logic, with nearly $100 million in massive long positions and the liquidation line known across the entire network, do you think the main force will mercifully use real money to pull the price back and save it? The least resistant and most profitable scenario is to push down another $50, precisely targeting the liquidation point to directly swallow up this $96 million liquidity. Today's brutal drop is very likely aimed at this position.
Just $50 away from nearly $100 million in chained liquidations, I've already heavily shorted, waiting for this fireworks show!Day 3
Assets: 21137
Today's profit: -14375
Already deeply in loss, half a month in the crypto circle
Today's new deposit: 1495
Earned 12,500, half a month's fuel, all burned in one fire
Now it's neither right to cut losses nor to hold on
Can only wait slowly, wishing everyone well Big Brother Maji's number one fan, Third Sister
"Holding Firm Against FOMC: The Hunter's Trump Card"
BTC and ETH just went through a round of long liquidations, but Big Brother Maji did not retreat. The latest positions show a total nominal exposure of about $110 million, still structured as "mainstream heavy positions + hotspot probing."
$BTC: 35x full position long, 110 coins, opened at 86200, floating loss of 62,000. Liquidation price at 59100, still some buffer from the current price; the real challenge is the funding fee. If the market consolidates sideways, the holding cost will gradually erode patience.
$ETH: 20x full position long, 32,000 coins, opened at 2750, floating loss of 2.1 million. This is the most painful part and the core reason he refuses to admit defeat. High volatility brings deep pullbacks, but he is still betting that after washing out the chasing highs, ETH will regain its explosive momentum first.
$SOL: 15x full position long, 80,000 coins, floating profit of 120,000. The position is not heavy, more like probing the residual heat of the sector, also paying funding fees.
Overall, Big Brother is not betting on an immediate reversal in direction but on mainstream coins surviving the washout and ETH leading the rally again. Aggression remains, and so does risk: funding fees and a second dip are the real opponents of this heavy position. With the September FOMC minutes about to be released, whether interest rates rise or not will determine if this firm hold will break through or be crushed by the last straw.Here’s a sharper, more natural version with the sarcasm preserved:
Writing
$CORE has a total supply of 2.1 billion tokens, with 1.5 billion already released in just 4 years.
According to the whitepaper, it’s supposed to take 81 years to fully release the entire supply.
But wait—only 4 years have passed, not 40. 😂
That means there are less than 77 years left.
At the current release pace, they’ll finish distributing the entire supply long before then.#DailyOrbit [Comeback Challenge: Day 3] Total investment 45U, currently 30U, strictly controlling risk!
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
Two days of pullback, deeply realizing the importance of stop loss. Real trading record, sharing encouragement with everyone.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
Current positions and P&L:
· $SNDK: average price 1721.8, unrealized profit +22.5% (sharp 1-minute surge followed by high-level consolidation)
· $CRCL: average price 81.03, unrealized loss -4.6% (resisted and pulled back, struggling around the entry price)
Key levels (Ice Surface Theory):
· $SNDK: short-term ice surface 1701, resistance above 1733. Reduce position if below 1701.
· $CRCL: short-term ice surface 79.65, resistance above 81.37. Turns weak if below 80.5.
Market sentiment and hot topics:
Today's OKX hot list focuses on macro: #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ Combined with #US long-term Treasury yield approaching 5.7%, macro pressure is significant. However, #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入, the market has some support. #OKXNOW launches 24/7 market, trading remains active. Overall in a recovery phase after a sharp drop, altcoins are in a stock game, avoid chasing highs or panic selling.
Today's strategy:
Firmly execute capital protection stop loss! SNDK set at 1721.8, hold if above 1701, reduce position if resisted at 1733; CRCL stop loss unconditionally if below 80.5, never hold losing positions.$UNI This is a 50x short position, opened at 8.914, now at 7.836, floating profit 606.34% (profit amount +1.07). Profit hits a new high again, but consecutive wins with super high floating profit are the most dangerous; the smoother it goes, the more you fear losing your mindset, so keep your grip tighter than when opening the position.
The 4-hour chart continues to break down, grinding from 9.804 down through the 8.4 platform, now probing a new low at 7.765 before a weak rebound to 7.836 (24h slight drop of 0.07%). Volume is 159 million, with 20.3 million tokens traded; after a volume surge on the drop, volume shrinks and consolidates sideways, showing very weak support. The system signals a break below key support, with multi-period weakness. As a veteran DeFi token, without capital it’s just a castle in the air.
The current price is close to the previous low of 7.765, with all the short profit-taking below. At 50x leverage, a 2% instant pullback (above 8.0) can drain most of the 600% profit. Absolutely no adding to the position; move stop profit to lock in the breakeven line. Watch the 8.0-8.4 resistance zone; if volume shrinks and it can’t hold above, keep the base position; if volume surges breaking 8.4 or falling below 7.765 with a long lower shadow and then recovers, take all profits immediately. The profit position only aims to take profits; better to earn less than to get stuck. At 50x leverage, surviving is more important than making a big profit.On-chain whale net inflows of ETH to exchanges have shown a pulse-like increase, but there is no concentrated sell pressure in single transactions exceeding 10,000 coins; it looks more like batch order splitting to test the market. The price is under pressure below 2570, with MA5 crossing below MA10 and MA30, MACD bearish bars continuing to expand, and active sell orders not retreating.
Just parked the car by the roadside and finished replying to debt collection messages, looked up to check the confirmation slip, and the market shows 2568.
Liquidation chart shows dense stop-loss orders for shorts around 2570; a quick break above this will trigger a short squeeze, so no chasing shorts, wait for a rebound. The 2568 to 2580 range is the short entry zone, take profit first at 2540, and if broken, look to exit in batches at 2520. Set defensive stop loss at 2610 to prevent price triggering stop loss and then rushing to the long position zone near 2630.
If it effectively holds above 2580 within fifteen minutes, abandon this trade.
$ETH
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元
@OKX星球 "Close short positions first, wait for direction tonight"
Previously, I kept emphasizing shorting, and the trend basically followed expectations, but I didn't expect BTC and ETH to drop so quickly. Now I've closed part of the short positions to lock in profits, and will decide on the rest tonight.
The logic remains unchanged: U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain high interest rates or even lean hawkish, plus ETF net outflows, so major pressure will come sooner or later. BTC repeatedly tries to break above 87,000 but fails, ETH is even weaker, not as stable as BTC.
From a technical perspective, BTC's first support is at 84,000; when it dips below, it is pulled back, indicating support. ETH is more critical, 2,580 is the bull flag defense line; once broken, the decline may continue.
Tonight's speech will set the tone; whether to go long or short, wait for confirmation before acting. No guessing, no heavy positions, no holding losing trades.
⚠️The above is for reference only, investment carries risks
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 #ETH #美债收益率 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 A 773% return looks really attractive, but with 50x leverage on the $SAND long position, your heartbeat must be racing now, right? Recently, SAND surged sharply in a single day after a Korean exchange lifted its warning, combined with the anticipation of the AI studio launch, providing short-term fundamental catalysts. The entry price was 0.07141, catching this main upward wave. $SNDK
To be more professional, the logic behind this move is "all bad news priced in + sentiment recovery." The mark price at 0.08246 hit a new high, but futures open interest surged, and if the funding rate turns negative, holding costs will increase. With 50x leverage, the margin for error is extremely low; a 2% reverse spike can wipe out the principal. Even if the overall trend is correct, intraday volatility can easily cause losses. $CT
The core issue now is not how much profit to make, but to preserve the 773% gains. It is recommended to take profits in batches or raise the stop-loss line above the entry price to make this trade "risk-free." High-leverage positions carry significant overnight risk. Keep a base position watching the 0.09 resistance level, and secure the rest as profit to be safest. #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ 📉 $HYPE top structure, short at rebound resistance level❗
Scale in short positions in the 90–98 range, average price reference 94.
Stop loss at 98.5, target 84 → 77.
⏱ Valid for 2 days｜📦 Position size 3%
If resistance is not broken, execute as planned; exit if it effectively breaks above 98.5.
What do you think about this top structure?👇TRUMP -8.4% I'm leaning bullish: the bottom line is at 1.847
$TRUMP 24h -8.4%, current price 1.848, daily low 1.7788 — I'm clearly bullish, the more it drops, the more I watch.
Daring to be bullish, daily RSI 46.4 is in neutral zone, not oversold; MA7 is above MA30 in a bullish alignment, not broken; fear-greed index 71 sentiment hasn't collapsed.
Capital side is calm, funding rate -0.00022906 near zero line, open interest shrank only -2.5% compared to 10-03 record, long-short account ratio 1.5284.
The market is diverging at high levels with a pullback, risk_off; out of 77 coins, only 14 are up, median -5.14%, TRUMP is getting hit along with the whole market.
Resistance above: 1.865 (1h SAR has flipped above), if it holds, look to 1.955
Support below: 1.847, if broken look to 1.814, further down is 1.8
30-day range position 0.093, price is close to the lower edge, if 1.847 holds, first test 1.955; if lost, admit mistake.
Direction is clear, above 1.847 I'm bullish, current price 1.848 to enter, break below 1.847 to cut losses and exit, if not broken target 2.028. Watching the market, follow me for signals.
$TRUMP $BTC$BTC brothers, I’ve discovered a particularly tricky mindset.
When holding a position, my mind was full of "just break even and get out, just break even and get out." Now that I’m actually in profit, I don’t want to exit anymore.
Have you ever had this kind of mindset?
This short position on $BTC has been driving me crazy these past few days. The last week, I’ve basically been enduring the position, unable to sleep well at night.
Today’s waterfall finally let me break even.
Yesterday I was thinking, if I break even, I’ll sell. But now that I really have, I’m reluctant to exit.
What do you think, is this right?
Should I be bullish or bearish now? I’m actually still leaning bearish myself. But holding this position is really tough for me.
Should I just close it out? Or keep holding?
Brothers, give me some advice, let’s chat in the comments."Holding Firm with $130 Million: Big Brother Maji's Trump Card"
In this recent bull run, many long holders have exited, but Big Brother Maji chooses to hold firm.
His total nominal exposure reaches $130 million, with a straightforward position strategy: heavy on mainstream coins, and small positions to play hot coins.
Many only see the unrealized losses on paper, but the biggest risk of this heavy position is the funding fees. If the market dips again, the pressure will be fully maxed out.
He does not expect an immediate market reversal but bets on mainstream coins completing chip cleansing, waiting for ETH to regain strength and lead the rally.
ETH is his most pressured position, 25x full long, holding 38,300 coins, entry price 2682.99, currently with an unrealized loss of 2.897 million.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 High volatility has caused significant drawdowns; he bets that after the shakeout ends, ETH will rebound first.
On BTC, he is 40x full long, holding 125 coins total, entry at 84888.5, unrealized loss of 97,300, liquidation price 57478, currently still some safety margin, but if it consolidates sideways, funding fees will slowly eat into the position.
Additionally, he has a small position in HYPE, 10x full long, 155,000 coins, unrealized profit of 45,100, used to speculate on hot market trends, but also requires continuous funding fee payments. The enthusiasm for the public chain sector is cooling down. After $SOL surged, buying pressure gradually dried up, and bullish funds chose to take profits at high levels and exit, following the trend to set up short positions waiting for a pullback to materialize.
SOLUSDT perpetual contract, short position, currently held. Opening average price 121.62, mark price 116.83, unrealized profit +393.84%. Unrealized profit is just a paper number; the market can reverse at any time, so trading must never be relaxed.
Many people only see the screenshot of profits but ignore the harsh volatility of contracts. SOL is a popular public chain coin, heavily influenced by sector sentiment and overall market trends. Once positive stimuli appear, funds concentrate to push the price up, which can easily trigger liquidation directly. $BTC $ETH #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $PONS is indeed a scam for hookups, the same old script foreverRebound is bait short squeeze is the knife - that sums up entire 87k->82,700 waterfall perfectly. *1. Emotional Dark Battle: Retail investors don't retreat main force doesn't pull up Prices slipping down open interest hitting new highs against trend This is not bottom it's leverage accumulation with fierce dark battle bulls bears Danger signal ETH retail long-short ratio soars to 1.89 BTC remains high Retail collectively fall into illusion of buying dip Main force won't carry such overcrowded loThis time I'm planning to short one ETH around 2740.
It's not that I think ETH will crash, but it has tried to break through 2800 three times and failed.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the range 2770-2800 has been repeatedly tested, with a high of 2777, and each time it gets pushed back down. Now the price has returned to around 2700, the BOLL middle band is at 2725, showing short-term weakness.
So this trade isn't a bet on a big drop, but a bet on a pullback. If 2680 doesn't hold, look at 2650, and below that 2600; if volume pushes it back above 2780, don't stubbornly hold, just admit the mistake.
After trading contracts for a long time, I dislike guessing the top more and more. Wait for the market to show the pressure, then trade the part you understand.
I'll short first and set the stop loss properly.
What do you all think about these recent pullbacks near 2800—are they accumulation or profit-taking?
#ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
⚠️The above is for reference only, investing involves risks $XRP perpetual 100x short position, opened at 1.503, currently at 1.4294, floating profit +489.68%.
The logic is simple: the long-short ratio is high, retail longs are crowded, and the main force is deleveraging downward. 100x leverage, stop loss at 1.525. Follow the active selling pressure on the order book and the decline in funding rates.
[News support] Options and perpetual structure show liquidity and stop loss clusters between 1.35-1.40 below; stablecoin inflows are slowing, altcoins are overall deleveraging, and XRP volatility is amplified. During a quiet news period, technicals dominate.
Move stop loss up to 1.445 to lock in profits. If 1.42 breaks with weak rebound, continue holding; if it recovers above 1.46, take profit and exit immediately. $SOL $BTC #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Conclusion first: $CAP peaked at 0.10 last night, then dropped back to 0.073 today — a 24% rise fully given back. This kind of pattern is textbook-level, not accidental.
Last night at 20:00, the 4H K-line: opened at 0.072, peaked at 0.10097, closed at 0.09005, with a volume of 12M, six times the previous bar. A volume explosion driving the price up, an astonishing range.
Then? Today’s high was 0.089, and now it’s back to 0.073. 24 hours down -13.34%.
How to interpret?
First, this is not a "shakeout." A shakeout is when the price is pumped up then smashed down to force retail investors off, then pumped again — but $CAP shows no rebound intention today, every rally is on shrinking volume.
Second, this is a typical "pump and dump" structure. No positive news, no big on-chain moves, just one explosive volume bullish candle to attract attention, then a slow sell-off.
Third, the 0.10 level has formed strong resistance. Those who rushed in yesterday are all trapped today. This portion of chips creates resistance — every time it rebounds near 0.09, selling pressure to break even emerges.
Those who chased in yesterday, you know how you probably feel now.
Do you think $CAP can return to 0.09?$STX perpetual contract 20x short position, secured +161.90% unrealized profit. Many newcomers think the operation is miraculous after seeing the gains, but only experienced traders know this is essentially like licking blood on a knife's edge.
In the crypto world, the wealth illusion brought by contracts and most altcoins is just an illusion. You can take full profits this round, but the next round could wipe everything out with a single spike.
The logic for holding $OKB is very clear:
1. The market has sufficient elasticity, the base is solid enough, and the upward explosive power is no less than altcoins; the market liquidity is far from comparable to air coins.
2. The underlying value support is strong, relying on the complete OKX ecosystem, with 21 million tokens permanently locked, plus real deflation from X Layer Gas.
BTC is the only true belief in the market. Holding OKB is not blind faith; it still has huge unrealized potential. With a market cap of 1.8 billion compared to BNB's 80 billion, there is a huge expectation gap.
Advice: The crypto market is brutal; there is no top in a rise, and no bottom in a fall. Do not invest personal emotions in coins; take profits quickly in short-term trades. Long-term positions should be reserved only for BTC and OKB; all other assets should be traded quickly. Protect your principal, and only then do you have the qualification to continue playing the market. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资