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After Bitcoin surged to $86,500 and then pulled back, many people started asking again: has it peaked?
To be honest, the question itself is wrong. What really matters is not how much it has pulled back, but how this rally came about. If it was purely driven by emotion and retail FOMO pushing it up, then the pullback would indeed be dangerous. But this time is different. This rally is built on solid foundations. The Fed's rate cut expectations remain, global liquidity is loosening, and institutions are continuously buying through spot ETFs—this money is not for short-term speculation, but for allocation. After the halving, miner selling pressure has clearly eased, and on-chain data shows large addresses are still accumulating. In other words, fewer people are selling, and buyers have not left.
So what is the pullback around $86,500? It's profit-taking. Whenever an asset rises significantly, some people want to lock in gains, which is perfectly normal. The key is to look at the depth and structure of the correction: as long as it doesn't break key supports like $80,000 or $75,000, it's just a rotation, not a sell-off.
Looking back at history, every major Bitcoin bull market has experienced multiple 10%-20% corrections. In 2017, when it surged from $10,000 to $20,000, it dropped three times in between, and each time people shouted "the bubble has burst." In 2021, from $30,000 to $69,000, there were also repeated shakeouts. A true top is never this mild pullback, but a volume-driven crash combined with completely frenzied sentiment.
And now? The discussion heat on social media is far below the 2021 peak, and retail investors have not entered on a large scale yet. #DailyOrbit Powell's criminal investigation is basically closed, but what truly deserves the market's attention is that the risk to the Federal Reserve's independence has lessened by another layer.
On October 3rd, according to the Financial Times, the U.S. Department of Justice decided not to reopen the criminal investigation into former Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Previously, the Federal Reserve Inspector General's investigation into a $2.5 billion renovation project found no criminal violations or administrative misconduct but did point out significant flaws in project management and cost control.
Simply put: problems in project management do not equate to criminal offenses.
The impact of this matter on the financial market lies not in Powell himself but in the expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy independence.
Transmission logic:
No reopening of criminal investigation → reduced judicial uncertainty at the policy level → eased concerns about Fed independence → lower market risk premium → dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and risk assets reprice fundamentals.
For BTC, this is not a direct positive, nor is it a signal for rate cuts.
What truly matters remains the interest rate path: inflation, employment, core PCE, and U.S. Treasury yields.
If Fed policy expectations continue to ease while political and judicial interference risks decline, the liquidity environment for risk assets will be relatively favorable; but if inflation rises again, this news alone is unlikely to change BTC's long-term trend.
So this is more like a "decline in policy uncertainty" rather than an "immediate shift in liquidity."
In the short term for BTC, it still comes down to the three core factors: U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and Fed rate cut expectations. #US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
This nonfarm data is indeed very surprising😳, Bitcoin surged but was quickly hammered back down.
The market expected about 90,000 new jobs, but the actual number was only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, significantly below expectations.
The surge was merely a reflex reaction to the news landing; substantial buying funds did not follow.
Additionally, the previous two months' data were revised downward: August was adjusted from 162,000 to 133,000, and July was revised from +21,000 to -10,000, a total reduction of 60,000 jobs; September wages increased by only 0.1% month-over-month.
$BTC
The easing of rate hike expectations briefly pushed the price up to around 87,238, but it couldn't hold and fell back to 84,600 within hours; the sentiment-driven gains from the news were basically exhausted.
$ETH
Performed relatively weaker, touched 2,760 when the data came out, and the pullback was faster than BTC, returning to around 2,680. To challenge 3,000, it needs to reclaim the 2,800-2,900 range first.
$SOL
Briefly surged to 122, then slid back to 119, wiping out almost all gains. Macro news caused intense back-and-forth volatility.
For Bitcoin to break out into a major trend, it ultimately depends on Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, and the direction of the dollar.
⚠️The above is only market opinion and does not constitute investment advice🔥 The non-farm payrolls released a big positive surprise, but BTC and ETH still couldn't break through—what's the real issue?
September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and employment data for the previous two months were significantly revised downward.
The rate hike expectations have indeed cooled down, but that doesn't mean the Federal Reserve has fully turned dovish.
What the market is really focusing on now is CPI and inflation.
Yesterday, BTC and ETH received positive news but failed to surpass previous highs and then retreated, which actually indicates considerable selling pressure above.
🟠 $BTC: Resistance near 87,000, support near 82,000.
🔵 ETH: Resistance near 2,750, support near 2,600.
So for now, I still define the market as oscillating and in a tug-of-war.
Non-farm payrolls can only change short-term expectations; CPI is more likely to determine the next phase's direction.
The inability to rally on good news is itself a signal.
The above is just my personal market record and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with expectations around 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%?
After cooling in hiring, the market lowered its bets on an October rate hike, with the Nasdaq closing up about 1.2%
For $BTC, this is a liquidity expectation positive, but the market did not rally along with the stock index; after the nonfarm report, it surged then fell back, still stuck below the previous high
Currently, BTC is around $84,500, and the October 2 high of about $87,200 has not been held
On the upside, first watch the selling pressure between $85,100 and $86,800; only if it holds above can it try $87,200 again, and above that is the year-to-date opening level near $88,700
On the downside, $83,500 to $84,000 is near-term support; if broken, look to $82,500; if $82,500 breaks, the short-term structure weakens, and $80,000 becomes the next level
The September increase roughly matches the monthly average of about 41,000 over the past year, and the unemployment rate remains low; there is more data before the end-of-month meeting, so policy won't be set based on this one report
This wave seems more like suppressing the probability of an October rate hike; the chance of a trend reversal is low. If BTC closes back above $85,000 and holds $83,500, a breakout may be coming!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 10.3 BTC Market Analysis
Last night's non-farm payroll data was indeed positive, but the market followed the classic pattern of rising ahead of expectations and then realizing gains upon release. After the surge and subsequent pullback, it has now entered a weak consolidation phase where profit-taking dominates. In the short term, bears are leading the correction rhythm. From an operational perspective, I still think you shouldn't blindly chase longs just because of positive data.
Key Levels
Resistance above: First at 848-850; second at 855-857
Support below: First at 838-840; second at 831-833
Trading Advice
The main strategy remains to short on rebounds. You can enter short positions near 848-850 after resistance and stagnation.
The first target is the previous low support at 840-838; if broken, it can extend to the vicinity of the previous low.
$BTC $ETH Holding a position is not persistence; it's handing over the decision-making power.
$ZEC was held from 500 to 1600, and the position is still open.
This is not a market issue; it's because no exit conditions were set.
Here's how the numbers are calculated:
From 500 to 1600, it more than tripled in between.
The person holding the position isn't bullish; they just refuse to accept that price.
Every time the price drops, they tell themselves this is the bottom.
The bottom gets broken again and again, and the position keeps getting pushed back.
Eventually, even when the price rises back, they don't want to exit.
Because exiting would mean admitting the previous hold was wrong.
What really gets stuck isn't the price, but the hand unwilling to press the sell.
Only when one day they willingly close the position at a certain price, regardless of profit or loss, will this trade be over.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $ZEC NEAR wants to issue fewer tokens, first see how the plan progresses
Talking about NEAR supply, don't skip the words "under discussion." On September 30, the SVRN leader proposed on the NEAR governance forum to gradually reduce the maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6%, with the adjustment process spanning 24 months.
Note: This is a gradual reduction, not a one-day switch; even if the governance vote passes, validators still need to adopt it through an upgrade. The poster also suggested leaving a 90-day buffer before the first reduction.
Looking at the numbers, dropping from 2.5% to 1.6% is a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, not an immediate 36% reduction in total token supply. Issuing less will slow new supply growth, but whether the total supply decreases depends on factors like burning.
The "fixed total supply" mentioned in the discussion is another research direction; the original post clearly states it is not a formal proposal and should not be treated as a finalized rule.
I am more interested in seeing how the complete plan balances two things: reducing dilution for token holders and maintaining incentives for validators to keep running. Issuing fewer tokens naturally attracts attention, but how the network continues to operate must also be accounted for.
Looking at governance news, first clarify who proposed it, when it takes effect, and who else needs to agree; the information becomes much more solid.
#NEAR #TokenEconomics #Crypto $SPCXB Approaching Resistance, What Evidence Is Most Lacking for a Breakout
$SPCXB +6.39% in 24 hours, current price 159.12, only 0.52% away from the 1-hour resistance at 159.95. This kind of position often creates an illusion: a brief intraday break above is mistaken for a completed breakout. The truly substantial answer is whether it can hold above after crossing.
Price levels are more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 6.27% above the 1-hour support at 149.14 and about 0.52% below the resistance at 159.95. Only by comparing these two distances can we see which side requires more evidence. Looking solely at gains or losses can easily mistake the space already traveled as space yet to be covered.
Volume does not back the price movement: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.39 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the trend. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
It’s easier to understand this phase of the market as an equipment acceptance test: running unloaded is not completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to conclusions. Let the key levels provide results first, then discussing direction will be more honest. Do you think this touch will turn into a valid breakout, or will it still be pushed back into the range by resistance? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull Talk.My friend has been aggressively averaging down, buying more every time SOL drops. He just sent me his holdings to show, with the cost basis steadily lowered—looks pretty good. I asked him how heavy his position is now; he paused and said it’s almost doubled compared to the start.
The act of averaging down is essentially adding to your position. Daring to buy more on the dip usually means you still believe in the direction, but often the only reason left to average down is to lower the cost basis. The cost basis is what you paid yourself; SOL’s quality doesn’t change just because the cost basis is lower. Buying more after a 20% drop makes the account look better on paper, but you haven’t spent any less money, your position is genuinely heavier, and the volatility remains the same—only now it hits a bigger stake, amplifying the feeling.
I’ve used this tactic myself, but after the second purchase, I felt something was off. The cost basis dropped, but I felt more vulnerable. From then on, I judged each purchase individually, writing down the reason for buying first—if I couldn’t write one, I stopped. Mixing admitting mistakes with averaging down only makes the position bigger and bigger. “Averaging down” isn’t a reason; it’s just a way to accompany the money already invested. People who show off their ever-lowering cost basis usually go silent when asked how heavy their position is or how much spare cash they have left.
$SOL has been steady this round, with corrections short and sharp, hardly giving many chances to average down. #DailyOrbit XRP Ledger: The Batch upgrade was delayed after validator support briefly fell below the activation threshold; the activation target moved to October 9. $BTC $ETH
BTC ~$84.6K. ETH ~$2.68K.
15M liquidity looks thin again.
BTC inflows have cooled over the past 2 days, while ETH isn’t showing much fresh capital. Hard to sustain upside without liquidity.
$SOL still trades like BTC/ETH’s little brother — majors move, SOL follows.
Today feels like another low-volatility grind.
Still holding Momo. No forced trades.
#BTCETHETFOutflows Latest Financial News (October 3, 15:41):
1. 【Strait of Hormuz】UKMTO reported another attack on a vessel late Friday night: an oil tanker was hit on the port side by an unidentified projectile about 4 nautical miles east of Oman. All crew are safe, no environmental impact reported. This is the 7th incident this week.
2. 【US-Iran Situation】Axios revealed today that Trump's key aides held a secret meeting for several hours on Friday at Camp David (hosted by Vance, attended by Rubio, Hegseth, Witkoff, Ratcliffe, and US Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley) to discuss the next steps in the Iran war and the Saudi-Houthi conflict; meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is preparing a large-scale counteroffensive against the Houthis with 100,000 Yemeni ground troops and Saudi air support. The US is only providing intelligence support and is not directly involved in combat for now; Trump said the war would "end soon," "possibly after the midterm elections."$ETH Nonfarm payrolls at 20:30 tonight; the strength of the data will directly determine whether $2,800 is a breakout or if pressure continues.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the key variable deciding ETH's short-term direction, focusing on the combination of new jobs added and the unemployment rate.
Nonfarm payroll data expectations:
New jobs added: Market expects about 90,000, previous value was 162,000.
Unemployment rate: Market expects 4.1%, unchanged from the previous value.
ETH is currently oscillating narrowly between $2,680 and $2,800, with an unclear short-term trend and intense battle between bulls and bears.
Impact of nonfarm payroll data on ETH:
If data exceeds expectations with new jobs added over 90,000/unemployment rate below 4.1%: This may strengthen bets on the Fed continuing to raise rates in October, causing US Treasury yields to rise, which would be bearish for ETH, possibly testing support at $2,680.
If data falls short of expectations with new jobs added below 90,000/unemployment rate rising above 4.2%: This may weaken rate hike expectations, improving liquidity outlook and bullish for ETH, with potential to test resistance at $2,800.
Suggested trading approach:
Nonfarm data releases often cause sharp spikes; it is recommended to wait 15-30 minutes after the data for sentiment to stabilize before acting.
If unemployment rises and new jobs added are significantly below expectations, ETH may rebound sharply; if data is strong across the board, ETH will face considerable downward pressure. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH The low position of $TAO is starting to attract attention, but cheapness alone can never replace evidence of a bottom.
Let's break down this market move into a conditional test:
Directional evidence: Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are weak, with RSI at 57 and 30 respectively. Oversold conditions can explain the demand for a rebound but cannot alone prove a trend reversal; price stopping new lows first is more convincing than any statement like "it can't fall further."
Positional evidence: Current price is 288.7, about 2.32% away from the 1-hour support at 282, and about 9.63% away from resistance at 316.5. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
No guessing for the next step. My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 316.5 can the short-term initiative be regained; breaking below 282 means shifting focus to the 4-hour support at 282. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 319.1 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
I don’t only share when my judgments are correct. How the price chooses between 316.5 and 282 next will be publicly reviewed in the next round.
Do you think oversold conditions alone are enough to change your judgment?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.ZEC dropped another 4% today, down 15% over 7 days, while Bitcoin only fell less than 3% in the same period.
Open any exchange's gainers and losers list, and ZEC is always near the top of the losers.
Other coins drop 1%, it drops 3%; other coins rebound 2%, it can't even gain 1%.
This is not a correction, this is capital systematically withdrawing.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF has been continuously redeemed by institutions due to privacy pool issues, with nearly $27 million withdrawn in a single day.
The Bitget hacker's $3.9 million stolen funds entering the Zcash privacy pool hasn't settled yet; institutions fear being associated with such labels, so funds will flee even faster.
My short position at 1486 has already gained over 100 in floating profit, but today I don't want to talk about how much I earned.
What I want to say is, at the current price of 1317, the risk-reward ratio for short positions is still favorable. Set stop loss above 1400, target first 1250, then 1200 if broken.
You don't need to believe me, just look at the market.
When the market rises, it doesn't; when the market falls, it falls even harder. For this kind of coin, long positions are a daily torment.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 The rule on the operating table is always: before the first cut, first check if the heart is still beating, whether the valves are adhered, and if cardiopulmonary bypass can be initiated.
The group gathered now are interns who just entered the operating room—hands shaking, sweating, zero concept of sterility, fainting at the sight of blood. So the experienced surgeons spread out the records of past complications: which cut severed a blood vessel, which stitch misaligned a valve, which postoperative drainage tube blockage caused cardiac tamponade. This "shared medical record" itself is not wrong; autopsy reports are the most honest part of medical progress.
But what you really need to look at is never the medical record, but the monitor.
$xNFLX and similar cross-market instruments are essentially an allograft heart transplant. The donor is in the US stock market, the recipient is on the blockchain market. When the match is incompatible, rejection reactions don’t first appear on the ECG; they start at the capillary level—microthrombosis, insufficient perfusion, cold extremities. By the time you see ST segment elevation on the K-line, a portion of the myocardium has already died. The crash retail investors see is the symptom, the chest pain; the real cause is hidden in the coronary angiography, hidden in those preoperative assessments no one wants to read.
When the fear and greed index spikes to extremes, that’s called sympathetic nervous system overexcitation. Heart rate shoots up to 180, but blood pressure drops instead; this isn’t heart failure that can be fixed with inotropes, it’s the compensatory phase of hypovolemic shock—the more vasopressors you use, the colder the extremities get.
"There are no stupid questions"—in clinical practice, the most dangerous thing is never asking the wrong question, but staying silent and then following orders. The primary source of complications for junior doctors is always the phrase "I thought I knew." What the chief fears most during rounds is not the students who ask many questions, but the one nodding silently in the corner.
As for the community giving rewards and good posts making the leaderboard for profit sharing, logically it’s equivalent to paying performance bonuses to resident doctors based on post volume. But surgical quality is never determined by bonuses; it’s determined by suture density and whether hemostasis is thorough. Rewards are for expression, not for myocardium.
I have seen too many scenes like this in the emergency room: everyone gathered around the monitor discussing waveforms, no one looking at the patient’s face. By the time someone pulls back the blanket, the puncture site in the groin has already soaked the entire bed.
The anesthesia for this case has been pushed, the sternal saw is in place. And what I see on this monitor is not the lively questions of novices, but a heart pushed onto the table before completing preoperative assessment—the aortic dissection has already torn into the pericardium, blood pressure is dropping, and no one in the room is feeling his carotid pulse. #newherestarthereWhen I first got into the crypto world, it was purely because I got hooked on short videos.
Seeing others flaunt their profits, it felt like money was just blowing in with the wind.
The first time I bought $BTC, my hands were shaking.
After buying, I kept staring at the screen, wanting to laugh when it went up a bit, and wanting to curse when it dropped a bit.
During that time, I even watched K-line charts while eating, it was really a bit obsessive.
Later, when $ETH surged, I chased it a bit.
But I bought halfway up the mountain, and then it slowly declined.
The first thing I did every morning was not drink water, but check how much was left in my account.
Saying I wasn’t anxious was a lie, but I still told my friends I was holding steady.
Then when $SOL surged fiercely, I couldn’t resist either.
I jumped in, but within a couple of days it started to pull back, grinding me down hard.
That’s when I realized, in the noisy places, I often ended up holding the bag.
After losing money, I did stupid things like averaging down, which only dug me deeper.
I also did even dumber things, like selling at the lowest point, then watching it slowly climb back up.
The frustration was unbearable, I really wanted to slap myself.
Now I don’t watch the market as much, I just set alerts and leave it alone.
My position size is much smaller too; being able to sleep well is more important than anything.
When others shout about hundredfold gains, I just listen but don’t fully believe.
There’s so much news in this field, some true, some false, and emotions run wilder than technology.
Having suffered losses, I know living to trade another day is more important than making quick money.
Sometimes I take a little profit and run, which isn’t ambitious but feels steady.
Sometimes I get itchy hands wanting to gamble again, so I quickly go wash my face.
In the end, it’s not that you can’t touch this stuff, just don’t put yourself on the line.
I’m still learning and will still make mistakes, just not as obsessed as before.
Now I treat it as buying some fun, no longer fantasizing about turning it all around in one shot.#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 The G7 release of reserves is a hedge, not a solution.
100 million barrels spread over 4 months, about 800,000 barrels per day, which is just a buffer relative to global consumption.
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
Logically, such a large release should directly crush oil prices.
However, Brent closed near $102 with almost no drop,
WTI fell to around $91, and diesel futures actually dropped even more.
This indicates the main shortage is in refined products, not crude oil barrels.
Hormuz crude oil exports have nearly returned to pre-war levels, but refined product exports remain far below pre-war levels.
Brent is still about 40% higher relative to the February baseline of roughly $72.
So my judgment on oil prices remains unchanged:
The release suppresses short-term spikes but cannot eliminate the risk premium of Hormuz.
In the short term, I still see $BZ fluctuating between $95–110.
Only when Hormuz transit continues to recover, and refineries and refined product exports are restored, will oil prices have a chance to approach $90;
but if there are renewed tanker attacks, shipping disruptions, or Middle East refinery impacts, $110–120 could be traded again at any time.
Regarding $BTC:
The real opponent ahead is no longer the non-farm payrolls, but whether oil prices can truly fall.
As long as Brent remains near $100, expectations for rate cuts will hardly fully turn into fuel for risk asset rallies.
So don’t just focus on the G7’s 100 million barrels; watch for:
1️⃣ Whether Brent can effectively break below and hold $100,
2️⃣ Whether U.S. Treasury yields will fall along with oil prices. The CEO personally buying his own ETF—my first reaction isn’t moved, but alert.
How is this different from project founders back in the day coming out to hype their tokens? Simply put, no one else is buying, so they have to go first.
The data makes it clearer. On the third day after listing, net inflow was only $9 million, which is not much in the ETF world. Also, it was specifically mentioned that "investors buy on pullbacks," which translates to: no one chases when it’s rising, only some tentative buying when it dips.
Now the CEO stepping in personally feels more like sending a message to the market: look, I’m buying, so what are you waiting for?
I don’t doubt he really bought, but how much impact can this amount have on NEAR’s price? It’s basically negligible.
What really matters isn’t who bought, but whether others will follow.
This kind of news has more emotional value than actual value. What do you think?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $NEAR $BTC $ETH Yesterday's market was clearly bullish, so why did it drop so much? This is my personal view. At 8:30 last night, the non-farm payroll data came out unexpectedly low at 29,000. The moment it rose, I immediately opened a long position. The price spiked to 2777, then retraced and I took profit. After all, when all the good news is out, it's reasonable to expect a sell-off. Besides, the US causing trouble is not a one-time thing, and the military situation in the Strait of Hormuz has been escalating, pushing international oil prices up. So US inflation will also rise with oil prices. Therefore, even if the probability of a rate hike decreases, it's not certain—at most it will be delayed. When the sell-off started with increased volume, I didn't think about shorting, and I bottom-fished on the third hourly candle. That was a major mistake. The market was very chaotic and didn't break out, so I ended up bottom-fishing halfway up the mountain and finally took a loss.
The market still hasn't broken out now, so don't think about bottom-fishing.
We'll talk more tonight.Crude oil prices have returned, but diesel has not.
Brent crude fluctuated between 98 and 103 on Friday, closing near 102: G7 releases once pushed it down to 98, but with another tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium remains.
Diesel tells a different story: Middle East diesel exports have only recovered to 25% of pre-war levels, and Russia's dropped to 20% in May. The first 20 days of G7 releases prioritized diesel.
The drop in crude oil prices has eased many people's minds, but the average US diesel price is still $6.37, having just hit a record high of $6.52 on September 22. Trucks, farm machinery, and factories all run on diesel, which is the true transmission chain of inflation.
Don't just focus on Brent crude; watch the diesel gap: crude oil trades on sentiment, diesel trades on supply. As long as supply hasn't returned, a key piece of the puzzle for cooling core inflation is missing.Nonfarm "explosion"! Only 29,000 new jobs, rate cut expectations ignite the crypto circle
This nonfarm data directly stunned the market, with only 29,000 new jobs added, unemployment rate soaring to 4.2%, far worse than expected, the US hiring market is basically "lying flat."
The market now basically agrees that the Federal Reserve rate cut is a done deal. Gold and Bitcoin directly benefited from this positive news. Bitcoin is focusing on the resistance level of 85,600-86,000; only by holding above this can it have the momentum to continue rising; 84,200-84,500 is the bulls' last defense line, once broken, the market will weaken. Gold is watching the resistance zone of 4,180-4,200.
Brent crude oil is more conflicted; although rate cuts are positive, poor employment means a weak economy and pressured oil demand, with bulls and bears counterbalancing each other. The key focus is the 101 level.
However, experienced players know that nonfarm data often plays the "good news is bad news" trick. Don't blindly chase highs just because the data is poor; it's easy to encounter a rise followed by a fall. The news landing doesn't mean a nonstop rally; position management must keep up to avoid being repeatedly harvested by the market.Non-farm payrolls surged then fell back, 84000 is the short-term watershed
After the non-farm data release, Bitcoin first surged, then quickly reversed, releasing short-term profit-taking and selling pressure from above.
Breaking it down by timeframe: the 15-minute chart shows a rapid surge and fall; the 1-hour chart slid from 87200 down to 82500, then bounced back to 84600, indicating support below but the rebound didn’t recover the losses; the 4-hour and daily structures are still intact, but the resistance zone between 85000 and 87000 can’t be ignored.
So the positive data only provides a reason to go long, it doesn’t mean the price will keep rising. Next, watch two levels: whether 84000 can hold below, and whether 85000 can be reclaimed above.
Hold steady and then break out with volume; this pullback is just digestion within an uptrend; if the rebound weakens and support breaks, then the non-farm move is likely just an emotional reaction. Data is a catalyst, but in the end, price action will tell the story.
$BTC10.3 BTC
BTC trading record
Short opened at 86347, closed at 84557
Captured 1817 points, gained 9105 oil
After last night's data release, BTC instantly surged to 872, and most who chased longs got stuck at the high
I waited to confirm the downtrend before entering
Finally took profit at 84557, which also coincides with short-term moving average support
Only take the most certain main down wave, not greedy for the tail end of the move
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🚨 ETH looks bullish on paper—but the money flow is sending a warning.
U.S. September payrolls rose just 29K, while unemployment hit 4.2%.
ETH sentiment: 49% bullish | 29% neutral | 22% bearish.
🔥 Bulls: record staking at 34.8%, ~44M ETH locked, positive ETF expectations, and growing ETH/USDC utility.
⚠️ Risks: spot ETH ETF outflows, validator withdrawals, the Aave exploit, Blast shutdown, and a large ETH transfer from a Lubin-related wallet.
#DailyOrbit Bitdeer mined 292.3 BTC in one week, sold them all, and its holdings continue to be zero.
As of October 2, Nasdaq-listed mining company Bitdeer mined 292.3 BTC this week and sold 292.3 BTC, with a net increase of 0 BTC, currently holding zero BTC.
This signals a very clear message: Bitdeer is not choosing to hoard coins but is converting mining output directly into cash flow.
However, this does not mean the mining company is completely bearish on BTC.
Mining company sells coins → recovers cash → covers electricity, operations, and capital expenditures → reduces financial pressure.
What is truly worth watching is whether Bitdeer will continue to maintain the "mine as much as you sell" strategy.
If more mining companies start selling their output simultaneously, supply pressure on the miner side will increase; but a single mining company selling 292.3 BTC weekly has limited direct impact on the overall market.
More importantly, it is about changes in the mining company’s cash flow and capital expenditures.
Bitdeer has already been accelerating its AI cloud and data center business layout, indicating it is shifting some resources from pure mining to AI infrastructure.
Therefore, I prefer to interpret this news as a "change in mining company capital strategy" rather than a simple bearish signal on BTC.
What really needs to be monitored in the short term is whether other mining companies will follow suit in selling coins and whether BTC can continue to absorb miner supply.Forcibly nailing two blueprints onto a single load-bearing structure—that was my first reaction when I saw this all-stock deal. Over eight billion dollars, not exchanged for bricks and tiles, but for the brains of the model research team—this is foundation grouting, not facade decoration.
In any supertall building, the most expensive part is never the glass curtain wall. It's the dozens of meters of unseen pile foundation underground. Computing chips are the rebar; model research is the concrete mix ratio. You think AMD lacks rebar? No, what it lacks is the calculation book that knows what wind pressure the next-generation building must withstand. Buying World Labs is like moving the structural mechanics lab directly into the general contracting project team, shifting from "building according to drawings" to "creating your own drawings."
But there is a fatal structural problem here: all-stock payment. This is not cash flow pouring concrete; it's using your own floor slabs to replace someone else's load-bearing walls. Stock price is the foundation; stocks are prefabricated shear wall components. If the market cools by the end of 2026 delivery, the actual reinforcement ratio of this deal will be diluted—you sign the contract thinking you're exchanging C60 concrete, but at settlement, it might only be C30.
Look at the logic it states: "Understand the next-generation model and workload, then feed back into hardware, software, and system design." This is the right path. A true ecosystem is never about building the building first and then adding pipelines; it's about simultaneous modeling of mechanical, structural, and curtain wall disciplines. Reasoning demand and intelligent agent explosion essentially represent the building's future actual occupancy density—designed by office standards but ending up as storage, with the floor load all wrong. So embedding model research into chip architecture early is an early load verification.
So where is the real risk? At the construction interface. The research team is a freelance artist studio; the chip company is a standardized general contractor. Combining these two work habits, the most common outcome is not a building collapse but indefinite suspension, rework, and drawings not recognized by each other. Historically, many beautiful joint ventures have died in the interior decoration phase due to disputes.
As for that token bearing the US stock name, what I want to say is: at best, it's just a billboard at the sales office of this building. Billboards don't bear loads, don't participate in structural calculations, and sway first when the wind blows. The real load is on AMD's process, packaging, and software stack, not on that sign. It looks lively but you can't touch the rebar.
My judgment is simple: this is a foundation reinforcement, not a topping-off. The benefits of foundation reinforcement can only be seen in the building height three to five years later, but the market always wants to close the deal on the day the first concrete is poured. Whoever treats the design drawings as the completion acceptance report will be cleared off the site during the structural deformation observation period. #amdworldlabsacquisition About $390 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for approximately $322 million, making up over 70%; long position liquidations have been even more dominant within the last 12 hours. This indicates that leveraged funds chasing the rally earlier were relatively concentrated. After BTC$BTC surged but failed to continue breaking through, the subsequent pullback easily triggered consecutive forced liquidations, creating a chain reaction of "decline—liquidation—further decline". #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $AAVE had an address that sold 50,000 tokens in a week at an average price of 160, cashing out 8 million USD.
Is it someone from the team? Analysts say "suspected." You know this term, suspected = I don't dare to confirm but release it first to gain traffic.
What's even more outrageous is that earlier, someone used a third-party adapter on Aave v3 to drain about $305,000 from two Safe multisig wallets. It wasn't a protocol breach, but a small external loophole.
Aave itself is still busy dealing with brand and IP handover to the DAO.
The most contradictory part of the market: it rose 17% in a week, standing near the highest point in the past 7 days, then dropped 0.5% in 24 hours with volume exactly the same as usual.
It didn't drop after liquidation news; who do you think is buying this?
My interpretation: the 180 price level is being supported by someone, but since it rose for a week without volume increase, it means no new money is coming in, just old positions exchanging hands. This kind of structure will either consolidate or look for a lower level, not suitable for me to chase now.
If you're really itching to trade, use a small amount and accept a 50% drop. Don't treat digging into team addresses as insider info; one address can hold more than your entire net worth. $AAVE Have you noticed that every time you stop loss, the price rebounds? Does it feel like the market is just watching that little bit of your money? Losing 200,000U and trying to recover, I used to be like this too. Every time after stopping loss, I would slap my thigh and then chase back in, only to get trapped again, getting slapped in the face repeatedly. Later I realized, it's not the market targeting you, it's your mindset after stopping loss that's the problem. After stopping loss, don't rush back into the market; calm down first and wait for the next clear signal. Currently, BTC price is 84620.4, resistance at 85000, support at 84000. I plan to place a long order near 84100, open position with 5000U, stop loss at 83900, target 84800. Never hold a position without a stop loss. Remember, stop loss is not failure, it's protecting your principal. As long as the green hills remain, you won't worry about firewood. $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Evening Review
Before the close, double-check the smart money and positions again. The biggest feeling today: trends will fluctuate, but right or wrong has long been written in the profit and loss.
$HYPE fell 2.30% intraday, the long-short ratio dropped to 124.94%, giant whale longs still dominate in number, with an average open position of 79.55 and considerable unrealized profits; although shorts have a higher profit ratio, their overall position size is far less than the main long forces, more like short-term arbitrage.
My 20x $HYPE long position slightly gave back profits, still with an unrealized profit of +2137.80 and a return rate of 323.36%. Even with a pullback, the safety cushion of the trend-following position remains, keeping my mindset stable.
In contrast, $BICO becomes clearer the more I look:
Even though the nominal long-short ratio is as high as 491% and the number of longs crushes shorts, the giant whale longs' profit ratio is only 26.10%, while shorts are mostly making money. Simply put, a bunch of people are blindly bottom-fishing and catching falling knives, getting trapped deeper the more they buy.
My 8x full-position long is at an unrealized loss expanded to -1334.11, with a return rate of -485.91%. It's not that I chose the wrong direction or name, but that I stood on the side of "many people but not making money."
Summary tonight:
Being bullish ≠ following the trend, more people ≠ stronger main force.
The real main force is the side that can still hold profits during market pullbacks;
And we lose money often because we are deceived by the illusion of "many longs," stubbornly holding on with false hopes.
Next steps: Hold the existing profits on HYPE, no more adding to $BICO. When it's time to admit mistakes, don't stubbornly bet against the market.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC brothers, let's talk about the current BTC market.
Previously, it was pushed up to around 87,000 but got suppressed, mainly because the whales have been taking profits and selling during the rise. This level itself is also a recent channel's upper resistance zone.
During the past week of sideways movement, large holders have reduced nearly 30,000 BTC, worth 2.52 billion USD, clearly lowering their positions and avoiding risks.
Next, focus on the 82,500 support level.
If the price falls back here and we see whales start accumulating again, that would be a signal to buy on dips, with a chance to rebound and retest the 87,000 resistance later.
If this level doesn't hold, the correction could deepen, and the market shouldn't be assumed bullish.
A price drop means locking in profits... 3,000 is the next target. Pump it up... #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ETH $BTC $IMX/USDT 1H
Momentum remains bullish, but price is pressing directly into 0.1936 resistance.
The moving averages are positively stacked, and 0.1906 has become the important short-term floor.
Entry: 0.1905–0.1920
SL: 0.1875
TP1: 0.1936
TP2: 0.1970
TP3: 0.2029
A breakout needs volume because the previous push toward 0.203 was sharply rejected.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease Wait a bit longer, finish reading my long-term plan first. Bitcoin hasn't fully corrected yet; it has only corrected by 5%, so 84000 cannot be considered the starting point of the rally.
1. Since the 87100 level, tested three times, is the expected institutional sell zone, the golden dip washout before the bull market must happen. It should retrace 8%-10% from 87300, right? Before the official bull market surge, there will be a fake drop to shake out weak holders, then a steady rise.
2. The US Treasury repo on 8.19 pushed Bitcoin from 64000 to 78000, and later from 9.18 to 9.22 it rose from 76000 to 87000. These were real money poured into spot ETFs, driving the price up, and the paper profits are real. Washing out chips is a necessary step.
3. The golden dip before the bull market is very applicable to Bitcoin’s previous bull runs. For example, before the main rise in the 2020 bull market, Bitcoin quickly dropped from 12480 to 9900 in September 2020, a 20% retracement washout before surging to 64800; similarly, in the 2024 halving bull market, it fell quickly from 48900 to 42000 in January, a 14% retracement, then rallied past 70000 after the washout.
4. If 87300 is the retracement starting point, calculating a 10% retracement: 87300 - (87300 * 10%) = 78570, which is roughly the ultimate low point of this round of decline.
5. Of course, risks exist. For example, if it’s not the eve of a bull market, even if what I said is true, the retracement could exceed 10%. These are two different scenarios.
6. But I believe the actual $6 billion spot ETF buying, the confirmed bottom at 57700, and the SEC’s easing on crypto all indicate signs of a bull market, so two long-term plans can be made.
7. In the plan, for the short position account, consider shorting in batches within the 85500-87000 range, holding long-term to take profits in batches at 80000-79000.
For the long position account, consider slowly buying in small lots within 79200-75000, finishing buying completely at 75000, occupying no more than 20% of total position, with 3-5X leverage, targeting 100,000 and above.
8. Finally, as long as Bitcoin follows a trend of a 5%-8% retracement followed by a violent surge, according to the plan, everyone’s accounts will multiply many times. Manage your hands well; this account is only for long-term, no short-term trading.30x in 30 days… and ZEC wiped out the dream in just a few days.
I went from making 78,000 in profit to giving back 54,000. That’s how quickly the market can humble you
Looking back at my ZEC trades, it honestly felt like the market could read my mind:
🔴 I go long → price dumps.
🔵 I switch to short → price goes sideways and slowly bleeds me.
🔴 I close the short → price suddenly rockets.
🟢 I chase the long → and get trapped right at the top.
The problem wasn’t ZEC. It was me.
#DailyOrbit When the market is clear, don't easily move your positions or open new ones.
At this time, all we need to do is quietly wait.
In the past two days, $CAP's movement has been extremely volatile, dropping from a high of 0.08469 to a low of 0.05907, a 24-hour decline of -14.67%, and now the price is consolidating around 0.07142.
Looking at the daily chart, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages have started to converge, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth at this level.
I opened a short position at 0.0825, and I am still holding it steadily, currently with an unrealized profit close to 40%.
In between, I experienced a rollercoaster from unrealized profit to unrealized loss, then back to profit. Honestly, it was a bit mentally taxing.
But it also confirmed for me: as long as the direction is correct and the previous high of 0.08888 is not broken, the bearish logic remains valid.
I will not add to my position now, nor will I open new trades.
The stop loss for my short position remains at 0.087, with take profit initially set at 0.06, and if it breaks below that, then look at 0.05.
Now I just need to quietly wait for the market to give the answer, and never panic due to short-term consolidation.
This time, I only want to stick to disciplined trading: no heavy positions, no all-in, no blind trades, restarting with 36U.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 I originally didn't want to check the market over the weekend.
While repairing my phone, the guy at the shop was taking off the back cover and asked me, "Bro, do you trade crypto?" I said a little.
He said he bought some ETH last year and is still stuck with it. I didn't respond.
On the way back, I kept thinking, why are retail investors always so slow to catch on?
Then I opened my computer and saw that SanDisk's legal officer sold 600 shares on October 1st, cashing out $1.04 million.
By itself, this isn't much.
But combined with the CEO's previous two cash-outs totaling 104 million, the tone changes.
The person who understands legal risks best in the company is selling, and outside, Toshiba just announced a 60 billion yen expansion of HDD production, causing Seagate to drop 14% and Western Digital to fall 10%.
Supply is about to loosen, and insiders are running.
SanDisk's own guidance for next quarter was already below expectations, and now even the supply outlook for the storage sector is turning. What do you think will bring it back to 1800?
My short position at 1887.5 is still open, with a floating profit of 90%. I'm not telling you to follow me, I just think if you're still waiting for 1800, you might as well ask yourself: do you understand this company better than the legal officer?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Solana is around $118.
SOL has been volatile enough that I don't want to force a prediction.
The question I'm watching is simpler:
Can buyers gradually push it away from this area and build higher lows?
That would be more interesting than one sudden green candle.#mask hits record market cap over $35 million
[Old Leek Observation]
A small Solana coin with a market cap of less than $40 million suddenly surged into the market spotlight today. $MASK soared over 70% in 24 hours, with its market cap once breaking through $35 million, setting a new all-time high.
What's more interesting is:
This is not the old Mask Network. Instead, it's a recently emerged Solana privacy narrative project called MASK.
Its main focus is: ZK privacy transactions. Currently, $MASK and $ZEC form a liquidity pool.
In other words, it directly ties its narrative to Zcash, a veteran privacy track.
Why is someone suddenly hyping this?
It's actually easy to understand. The market has been re-hyping: privacy + ZK + Solana recently.
Previously, ZEC has re-entered market attention. Now, a small market cap privacy coin on Solana suddenly surges with volume, making it easy for funds to treat it as:
"A high-beta play in the privacy track."
And its market cap is only about $35 million now.
This is also why small coins are most prone to fluctuations of tens of percentage points.
But here, Old Leek wants to remind:
Chasing this coin after a 70% rise is completely different from discovering it initially.
The reported 24-hour trading volume is only about $2.7 million.
The market cap is very small, and liquidity is limited. 2026/10/2. A day suitable for reflection, writing down thoughts as they come……
1. A deeper understanding of "reverse thinking, doing the opposite."
Knowing well that short-term speculative behavior cannot bring huge trend gains, yet still "poverty limits ambition" by earning "small money" in the comfort zone, missing out on huge trend market profits.
The missed opportunity from August 17 to the end of September was huge and profound.
2. Understanding "about a strong culture."
Previously, the approach was from myself—what I want—the world should be like.
Suddenly realizing it should be how the world actually is—what rules exist—what I can do—the cost I pay—and what results I accept.
The most important among these are respecting objective laws, what I am good at and enjoy, and the results and costs.
3. "What truly tests a person is not prosperity, but adversity."
In prosperity, everyone can make money; that’s not impressive. What’s truly remarkable is finding a way to survive in adversity and discovering more opportunities in crises.
This aligns with the core idea of "antifragility."
4. A person’s long-term stable cognitive style will repeatedly produce similar choices, and choices ultimately shape destiny.
The fundamental reason for missing three major market opportunities before is the lack of cognitive upgrade, fixed thinking, somewhat passive actions, plus fundamental problems with courage and confidence.
This time, I must honestly admit my mistakes Looking at my account today, my feelings are really mixed. BTC and SOL are desperately trying to recover my losses, but ZEC, this bottomless pit, has directly given me an extremely costly risk control lesson.
$BTC (The Anchor)
Average holding price 84044, current price 84510, unrealized profit 276.58U, return rate 11.03%. BTC remains the ballast stone of the account, steady rhythm, defense around 79000, as long as it doesn't break, hold on, no guessing tops or messing around.3x leveraged ETP approved, but don't rush to celebrate yet
Regulators have just approved 3x leveraged ETPs linked to Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and crude oil. It looks like they've opened the floodgates for the crypto market, but in reality, it might be a capital crusher designed for retail investors.
These products have a brutal daily rebalancing mechanism; the more volatile the underlying asset, the heavier the losses. If Bitcoin spikes 5% to 10% in a day, even if the price eventually returns to the starting point, the account's net value will be unilaterally reduced. A few days of sideways movement can quietly erode the principal.
The real beneficiaries are issuers and institutions: they collect management fees while gaining additional hedging and arbitrage tools within compliant accounts. Retail investors rushing in often buy not a bull market amplifier, but a ticket that provides exit liquidity to market makers.
Understanding the loss mechanism is far more important than rushing to bet bullish or bearish.
$BTC $ETHCoinbase has further completed its U.S. compliant derivatives landscape, and this time the truly important part is that "clearing" has also begun to be managed in-house.
On October 3rd, it was reported that the CFTC approved Coinbase Clearing as a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO), authorized to clear fully collateralized futures, futures options, and swaps.
Simply put, Coinbase is now gradually forming a three-layer infrastructure of FCM brokerage, DCM trading platform, and DCO clearinghouse, allowing some compliant derivatives to be traded and cleared internally without fully relying on third parties.
What deserves more attention is USDC.
Coinbase clearly stated that its clearing system is designed around USDC collateral and 24-hour settlement, which means stablecoins are moving beyond being just a "medium of exchange" toward becoming settlement and collateral infrastructure in compliant financial markets.
The transmission path is clear:
CFTC approval → Coinbase controls the clearing process → USDC expands its use as collateral → compliant derivatives products expand more easily → crypto assets gradually enter traditional financial infrastructure.
But don’t overinterpret the positive news here.
This approval only covers fully collateralized related products; leveraged products and Coinbase’s planned U.S. single-stock perpetual contracts still require third-party clearing and further regulatory approval.
Additionally, this DCO approval does not equate to CFTC approval of any specific prediction markets, nor does it mean Coinbase’s prediction market business has obtained additional licenses.
My judgment is,"Sharing a rental with $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL for 90 days, I'm almost the property manager now"
The rental agreement was signed for three months. Looking at the state of this place now, I've realized: the crypto market sideways movement is like a shared rental life documentary.
🟠 $BTC lives in the master bedroom: the $84,500 room, the door always half-closed. No sound inside; if you listen closely, it just says "wait and see." No staying up late, no partying, no unpaid utilities, even its breathing follows the weekly chart. When asked in the roommate group chat "Will it move tonight?" it replies with a "🫰" and goes back to sleep. It's the kind of landlord-type roommate you think is brewing a big move, but is actually just sleeping.
🔵 $ETH lives in the second bedroom: the $2,670 room, piled with "L2 delivery boxes" and unopened ecosystem whitepapers. Every morning it says "I'm going to pump today," but by night it still holds the same position, like working overtime until 9 PM only to find the plan rejected. Eyes tired but mouth stubborn: "I'm not useless, I'm waiting for Cancun's next generation." Pays the most rent, but its presence feels like a background wall.
🟣 $SOL lives on the balcony: the $119 spot, turned the balcony into a mini trampoline room. At 2 AM, "thump thump thump," you think someone's coming, but it's still $119. Jumps during the day too, jumping in and out of the room, tracing patterns along the balcony tiles. Pays the most "property fees" (transaction fees), the balcony tiles are almost worn smooth from its stomping, but the property price hasn't moved a cent.
The most suffocating thing is the pinned message in the rental group: Fear and Greed Index 67, saying "Everyone really wants to spend money." But in this place, the water meter doesn't move, the electricity meter doesn't move, only my phone battery is draining.With this BTC drop, I'm starting to suspect someone is accumulating chips at the bottom again. Just looked at the CVD grouping data, and there's an interesting phenomenon on the market: the purple whales representing large funds are showing clear buying, while other fund groups are basically inactive.
Earlier, BTC dropped all the way down from above 87200, hitting a low near 84000. If you look at the CVD, these whales showed more obvious selling pressure before, but after the price dropped, the fund direction turned back to net buying. It's like they pushed the price down from a high level, then slowly accumulated chips at the low level.
More importantly, there is currently no particularly obvious large sell wall. Retail and medium-sized funds are quite quiet; the market activity mainly comes from these purple whales.
So around 84500, I actually don't want to chase shorts. I'll first watch if the 84300–84000 area can hold. As long as this area isn't broken with heavy volume and the whale CVD continues to rise, I'll wait for long opportunities. The first resistance above is 84700; after reclaiming that, watch 85000, then later 85500.
But one thing not to get wrong: whale buying on the CVD doesn't mean the price will immediately take off. The best move at this position is when retail is still hesitating, but whales have already started accumulating.
I'd rather follow the buying and wait for confirmation than rush to short just after BTC took a hit and dropped to above 84000.Is this a scammer selling USDT on C2C?
Today I bought USDT on a certain legitimate platform and chose a certified seller with a high transaction rate.
They asked me to provide Alipay transaction records, but said they couldn't see them on the platform and asked me to add them on WeChat. (At this point, I became suspicious and reminded myself to be cautious.)
After providing the transaction records on WeChat, they sent an Alipay QR code on the platform. Because it was sent on the platform (not on WeChat), I didn't think much and started the transfer.
However, due to risk control, the transfer failed. The other party said they would give me a new QR code later. At this point, I felt something was very wrong. Also, they chatted with me about random things, like when I started playing, which was strange, so I requested to cancel the transaction.
I definitely would not transfer money to the "new QR code," but I want to know if providing a QR code on the platform is also a scam? I read on DeepSeek that transfers must be made through QR codes bound to the platform so the platform can monitor and intervene; sending QR codes privately is very risky.
But after I complained to the platform, they said there was no problem and it was not a violation.
If there were no risk control issues and my transfer succeeded but the other party didn't release the coins, would I have no recourse?
#web3 #bitcoin #blockchain #scamprevention #scamguide #scammersareeverywherebewareofbeingdeceived #keepscammersawayfromme#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
Who exactly are the most profitable people on #Polymarket?
Today I saw a pretty interesting report from FT.
On Polymarket, there is an anonymous trader circle called #Alpha, and many members are actually Gen Z, including PhD students, undergraduates, and math experts.
According to the FT report, this group has collectively earned about 40 million USD since 2024.
What’s even more interesting is that I looked further.
A research team analyzed Polymarket’s historical on-chain orders and found that this market has long had many arbitrage pricing deviations, estimating that the arbitrage profits already taken by traders also reached about 40 million USD.
This suddenly made me realize:
Most people, when they see Polymarket, their first reaction is—
Isn’t this just betting on who will win?
But professional traders might see probabilities, odds, information asymmetry, pricing errors, and arbitrage opportunities.
I feel that the Prediction Market sector might be more worth studying than many people imagine.
Are there any friends who have truly played Polymarket long-term?Looking at the leaderboard for a long time, here’s an easy pitfall to avoid.
There are plenty of people with high returns on the leaderboard, but not many can consistently lead trades for more than half a year — I pulled some data, and an average of 221 days leading trades is considered a long time.
Many people choose signal providers by looking at returns at first glance, which is almost the easiest way to get burned — high short-term returns often mean high leverage and big drawdowns. My own criteria are only three:
- Leading trades for a long enough time (at least through one full cycle of ups and downs)
- Able to withstand the maximum drawdown
- The number of followers steadily increases, not fluctuating up and down
Returns are the result, not the cause. Those who survive long term naturally don’t have poor returns.
Which metric do you value most when choosing a signal provider? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#CopyTrading #CryptoMarketThe calm $DOGE is a mirror reflecting market stratification. The greed index measures total sentiment, while price reflects capital choices. The total amount is rising, but the choice bypasses it. For holders, this may not be bad: a marginal position means low crowding. Once the main line saturates and funds overflow, the tail will become the head. Until then, one must get used to the excitement belonging to others.