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Collect 15U in 4 working days
This LP group is from group 6, now it's the weekend, planning to withdraw and check again next week.
On-chain US stocks basically have no trading volume on weekends, so the fees are basically zero!
The reasons for choosing this trading pair initially:
1. Quite optimistic about $CRCL, the price around 80 is suitable, even if it falls out of the range, holding the tokens in the wallet is not a concern.
2. They say this is a US stock meme, with relatively large volatility. This means high trading volume and the APR is not low either.$BTC brothers, don't rush to call the bull market back with this rebound! From the 4-hour K-line perspective, the downtrend structure since $87,239 remains intact. Although it didn't break below $80,000 on Friday, that doesn't mean the bottom is confirmed. From Sunday to Monday, the $80,000 level is still a key point.
Currently, the rise looks more like a correction after the decline. The EMA20 near $83,083 above is an important resistance. If the rebound lacks volume and fails to break through for a long time, it may continue to probe lower.
KDJ shows signs of turning down, bullish momentum is weakening, and RSI hasn't shown obvious strength. Coupled with panic triggered by wallet theft incidents, market sentiment remains fragile.
My current view is temporarily bearish, but that doesn't mean $80,000 must break. If support fails, bears may continue to exert pressure; if volume breaks through resistance, beware of a market reversal.
Speaking of wealth accumulation, earning your first 1 million in life is an important step from relying on labor income to letting capital generate returns.
With a monthly salary of 10,000 yuan and saving 3,000 yuan per month, without considering returns, it takes nearly 28 years to save 1 million. Having 1 million principal, even with a 10% annualized return, theoretically generates 100,000 yuan income per year, but returns are unstable and not guaranteed.
So, don't think about turning your life around with one or two trades, and don't put your principal at risk for quick money.
Back to $BTC, focus on the resistance near $83,083 and support at $80,000. Control your position, protect your principal, and patiently wait for opportunities. The market never lacks opportunities; staying in the market is the only way to accumulate wealth. $ETH once dipped to $2,400 before rebounding.
If the weekly candle closes below $2,550, Ethereum will retest $2,350 or even lower.Today is Saturday, and the US stock market, ETFs, and CME are all closed. Without institutional funds stepping in, market liquidity is very thin. Over the past two days, ETH dipped to 2405 intraday, experiencing three waves of lows. After a large number of liquidations in 24 hours, it has sharply retreated, and short-term leveraged positions have been cleaned out quite thoroughly. In this environment, even a small order can cause exaggerated spikes, with both bull and bear traps being very common, making it unsuitable for heavy position speculation.
ETH over the weekend remains in a range-bound oscillation pattern. If the upper resistance cannot be broken, the market will keep grinding back and forth. Only by breaking and holding above the resistance with volume can there be a chance to expand upward; if the lower support breaks with volume, it will continue to probe deeper levels.
You might think you can scalp some profits within the range, but looking at the news and macro factors, it’s quite alarming.
Binance long accounts account for 76.7%, and the retail long-to-short ratio is 2.12:1, meaning almost everyone is crowding in one direction.
Meanwhile, on the ETF side, the Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for eight consecutive trading days, totaling $578.9 million in October.
Institutions are withdrawing, and whales are being liquidated.
At the same time, after Waller just delivered a hawkish tone, Goldman Sachs directly raised its expectations, suggesting there might be not just one rate hike in December, but possibly two more.
At this point, I choose not to be aggressive.
Over the weekend, I prioritize watching and waiting, as there are too many fake moves on the chart, which can easily trigger stop losses. The real directional verdict will have to wait until the CPI data is released on October 14. The four kings of L2, it's their turn now. Last round they all dropped 99%, cleaned out pretty thoroughly, unlocking is almost done, popularity and consensus remain, anyway, whenever it rallies, someone will catch it. The four have different rhythms:
$ARB runs the fastest, relying on Robinhood Chain, Standard Chartered sees $10, current price 0.18. But no dividends, no buybacks, money goes into the DAO, only governance rights, need to wait for future changes.
$STRK is the strongest, quantum privacy + transitioning to independent L1, aiming for quantum resistance by 2027, up 40% in one day, AI panic helped. But the L1 transition is not finalized, futures volume is 5 times spot, heavy speculation.
$ZK broke through the daily line, current price 0.0142, holding above 0.012 looking at 0.025. But sell orders are slightly more, don't chase.
$OP is the slowest, 0.1336, the cheapest, once L2 warms up and catches up, it won't run away. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Big swings! $BTC daily chart shows a V-shaped recovery—is it a shakeout or a reversal?
Last night, Bitcoin's move was decisive: after a sharp drop, it quickly reclaimed part of the lost ground. The battle between bulls and bears is still undecided.
1. Cause of the drop: Research warnings that AI might crack cryptographic signatures within months, combined with continuous outflows from spot ETFs, led high-beta funds to sell off directly. BTC hit a low of 81,600 in the early morning.
2. Drivers of the rebound: Trump's tweet about reaching a 4.8 million ton diesel supply agreement with Putin caused geopolitical premiums to quickly retreat, easing oil price pressure. Bitcoin then followed suit, reclaiming 82,600, with a trading range between 81,610 and 83,530. #美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解
3. Technicals: The daily RSI at 49.8 is in a neutral zone. The 20-day moving average at 84,260 is the current major resistance; the 50-day moving average at 80,540 serves as the mid-term lifeline, while the 200-day moving average at 71,800 is still far from the current price. Volume has expanded to 2.15 times the 30-day average, but no clear direction has been chosen. This round leans more toward a shakeout rather than a major sell-off.
Intraday support is at 81,700, with resistance between 83,280 and 83,530; until there is a volume breakout above 84,300, all rebounds should be treated as recoveries. Only if 80,500 is broken will the trend need to be reassessed as bearish. The real directional node is the US September CPI on Tuesday, 10/14. Don't rush to take sides before the CPI data is released.I got into crypto because a friend pulled me in.
He kept nagging about $BTC turning things around.
I got so tired of hearing it.
I took a few hundred bucks and followed to buy.
Right after buying, it dropped.
It dropped so much I didn’t even want to eat.
Lying in bed at night, I was still thinking about that chart line.
Later it went up a bit.
I quickly sold.
Made enough to buy a spicy hot pot meal.
That gave me some confidence.
Then I went for $ETH.
The transfer fees were so high it made me grimace.
Once it got stuck for a long time.
I thought my money was gone.
Later I heard $SOL was fast.
Got itchy hands and jumped in again.
It really is fast.
But when it gets congested, it’s frustrating.
After messing around for over half a year.
I didn’t make much money.
But my dark circles got deeper.
People in the group shout out trade calls.
Then go silent.
There are tons of screenshots showing profits.
No one talks when losing money.
I chased highs and got stuck.
I cut losses too.
Chased highs and stood on the peak.
Cut losses and it bounced back.
That feeling was like hitting myself.
Later I learned my lesson.
Only play with spare money.
Losing it doesn’t affect meals.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t use leverage.
Don’t bet the house.
Projects I don’t understand.
No matter how hyped, I don’t touch.
Being able to sleep at night.
Is better than anything.
Don’t get cocky when winning.
Don’t get stubborn when losing.
There are opportunities in this field.
But there are more traps.
Don’t risk your life for it.
Work when you should work.
That’s about it.
Lessons I learned the hard way.#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049
#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 $NEAR
NEAR/USDT Perpetual 30-Minute Review
This ID's view: After a surge to 5.632, there was a rapid sell-off, with a low reaching 4.300. It is currently a recovery rebound after a sharp drop. Do not treat this directly as a reversal to go long. The old central resistance above is heavy, and if the rebound meets resistance, consider shorting.
Entry: When the rebound approaches the previous central resistance zone and the market shows signs of weakening upward momentum, you can set up short positions.
Stop loss: Place above the high point of this rebound.
Chan Theory Structure: On the 30-minute level, the previous long-term movement oscillated within the purple central zone. After surging to 5.632, it directly broke down through the central zone, hitting a low of 4.300. This current move is a pullback repair after the breakout; the price has not yet firmly reclaimed the previous central range. The larger downtrend framework has not been completely broken, and there is still a possibility of further decline after the rebound ends.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation: During the price plunge phase, volume significantly increased, with concentrated selling pressure from bears. In contrast, this rebound shows a clear volume shrinkage, with insufficient buying follow-through, representing a typical low-volume recovery after a sharp drop. There is no continuous inflow of new funds, making upward breakout difficult.
Key Observation: Focus closely on the purple central resistance zone above. If the rebound cannot hold above this zone, this rebound will most likely end; only a volume-driven break above the resistance zone should prompt a revision of the existing trading strategy.#跟着OKX打卡2049 Seeing this Check-in 2049 event, I suddenly want to chat with everyone. Unconsciously, I've been in this circle for almost ten years.
Now people often ask, when 2049 really comes, what price will Bitcoin reach, and what will the crypto industry look like? I personally don't dare to casually make such long-term predictions because this industry changes too fast. Who could have imagined ten years ago that we would have ETFs and so many institutions entering the market now? Conversely, no one can guarantee that this path will definitely be smooth ten years from now; who knows how many black swan events might occur along the way.
Personally, I think there's no need to obsess over such distant price points now. The real deal is to manage your current positions well and not get washed out by short-term volatility. Those who survive in this circle and make it to that time will most likely not be too poor.
I also want to ask everyone, what are your expectations for the crypto market in 2049? Do you think the current leading projects will still be around, or will there be a new batch of faces by then? Let's chat casually in the comments. $BTC Back when Dogechain was hyped as the ecosystem for Dogecoin, the DeFi assets on the chain now amount to less than $300?
When I saw this number, I even went back to check, and it was a bit disheartening.
In 2022, when Dogechain first launched, it was very popular. Everyone thought DOGE finally had a chance to play in DeFi, trading, and NFTs, attracting about $4.6 million in deposits within just a few days.
So what happened?
CoinDesk cited DeFiLlama data in a report on October 1st, showing that the locked assets in DeFi applications on Dogechain had dropped to less than $300.
From millions of dollars to just a few hundred, the gap is truly staggering.
Recently, the DogeOS public testnet went live again, and the community has started discussing the Dogecoin ecosystem anew, with even the foundation’s board members openly expressing their expectations.
Of course, I hope this time it works out, but those who experienced the previous round should understand that a lively testnet and a truly surviving ecosystem are two completely different things.
Especially for $DOGE, which already has a large group of long-term holders. Getting everyone to connect wallets, earn points, and complete tasks isn’t that hard. The real challenge is how many people will continue to use these applications after the events end. $MAGIC This wave is not a rebound; it is a huge bullish candlestick after a period of extremely low volume consolidation, directly breaking through the previous high resistance.
First, look at volume and price confirmation. Before the start, the price stayed at a low level with extremely low volume for several days, with almost no trading; then the volume suddenly exploded, far exceeding the usual level, and the long bullish candlestick pierced through the previous high resistance, forcing a short squeeze all the way to the doubling zone. The combination of extremely low volume bottoming and huge volume breakout is the cleanest volume-price coordination for a main upward structure, unlike the previous volume-less empty rise.
Next, look at the chips. This small market cap asset has thin liquidity; the huge volume directly sweeps away the trapped positions above, with almost no dense trading zones ahead to suppress, so the rise is both fast and steep. But the driver is social media sentiment and speculative capital rotation, not fundamentals; the more intense the volume surge, the greater the short-term deviation, and the thicker the profit-taking pressure.
Characterize the current position. It has already surged into a previously untouched high-level vacuum zone, with no historical chips pressing down above, purely relying on sentiment and volume sustainability. The previous high below has turned into support; as long as the pullback does not break it, it remains an acceleration structure.
From the right side, only one thing matters: whether the volume can continue. After a huge volume surge, if volume shrinks and price consolidates without breaking the previous high support, it is a strong consolidation; once volume explodes but price stagnates with frequent long upper shadows, it is distribution. Do not guess the top, watch the volume.
$BTC Watching the market for half a day, then getting slapped twice 🤡
For this XRP trade, I stared at the market stubbornly for half a day, thinking it was stable.
Opened a short position first, got hit; not convinced, reversed to go long, got buried again.
Perfectly achieved a "long-short double kill" in just a few dozen minutes.
Though the position was small, the humiliation was intense.
This isn't trading; it's paying the exchange's electricity bill with my own strength. $XRP Analyzed my highest-yielding positions
I found they all have one thing in common
1. Profitable from the start
2. I usually set a breakeven stop when profit reaches about 20%
3. Open fewer trades and think about them less $BNB Damn! BNB's shakeout this round is really fierce, hovering around 745 for three days, how many old-timers got thrown off?📉 From my view of the order book, the big players are clearly supporting orders at 745.8, and the hourly-level bullish divergence has already appeared. Take my advice, you can lightly buy a bit near 745.8, if it breaks 738 then admit the mistake and leave, the first resistance above is at 760. In this pure capital game, don't chase highs or go heavy. For those who want to follow, just click the token market card below to check the order book volume yourself and act when you know the situation. This is just my personal opinion, not investment advice, trade at your own risk.🧘♂️
👇👇👇The four major L2 projects, ARB was the first to launch and ride on the Robinhood chain plus buybacks. $STRK's quantum privacy narrative currently seems to be accepted by the market, and it has been rising steadily these days. $ZK has also broken through the daily-level consolidation range and is about to enter a trending market. Currently, only $OP is moving a bit slower, but breaking through the consolidation range is just a matter of time. I have repeatedly emphasized in the square before that the four major L2 projects trapped too many people in the last bull market, with most falling 99% from their highs, a thorough shakeout. This bull market should see a good performance, mainly because the drop was severe enough, the unlocks are mostly done, and market consensus and popularity remain. As soon as the market rallies, there will be plenty of retail investors to take over. Why do 99% of retail crypto players lose money and get charged fees on six levels:
1. Launchpad fee, basically 1%
2. Bots on the chain acting as traps, taking 0.1-10 per transaction from retail and frontrunners.
3. Wallet fees, such as tp, MetaMask, web3 wallets
4. Third parties like gmgn, ave, etc.
5. $UNI and $CAKE DEX fees currently take 16% and 32% respectively from LP providers.
6. Transfer fees: $SOL, bnb, eth transfer gas fees.
7. Ultimate fee: RMB-U deposits and withdrawals, OTC merchants charge again.#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
MAGIC really got me confused. After grinding for almost half a year, these past two days saw a huge green candle doubling the price, with volume bars thicker than all the past months combined—a typical sudden capital spotlight play.
From the chart perspective, it had been consolidating at a low level for a long time, moving averages slowly turning up, basically a buildup phase. This wave took advantage of the blockchain gaming sector's heat to explode upward.
Current macro environment: BTC just pulled back from 87,000 to around 81,000, the Fed minutes were hawkish enough to scare, possibly more rate hikes by year-end, ETF funds are withdrawing, main capital has nowhere to go but to drill into these small-cap old altcoins, which are easy to pump and ignite sentiment instantly.
But don't forget there's still a landmine—the unlocking pressure of about 13 million MAGIC tokens is still looming.
For those already on board, don't be greedy. Historically, such vertical surges rarely hold steady; take profits in batches, at least pull out your principal first and let the profits run. For those not on board yet, definitely don't chase now; the chance of hitting a flying knife above is much higher than making gains. Wait for a pullback to see if the 0.08-0.09 gap can hold before considering entry. If you really believe in this sector, wait until it drops thoroughly and consolidates with low volume before entering.
Remember this: when these coins rise, everyone is a genius; when they fall, there's nowhere to reason. Make money within your understanding, not on luck—luck will be paid back. $MAGIC $MAGIC: Long
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back and stabilize in the 0.140-0.145 range (near EMA5) before entering long.
· Target the previous high at 0.159 first; if it breaks effectively, look towards 0.170. Set stop loss below 0.130.
Core basis:
1. Moving averages are extremely divergent: EMA5 (0.137), EMA10 (0.125), EMA20 (0.109) form a perfect bullish alignment, indicating a very strong trend. However, the current price surged 73% in a single day, severely deviating from the moving averages with a large divergence rate, creating a strong need for a pullback correction. Chasing longs directly carries very high risk.
2. Massive volume surge at the bottom: Price surged from 0.060 to 0.159, accompanied by huge volume at the bottom, indicating deep involvement of major funds. Typically, in such a one-sided rally, the first pullback is likely to trigger a second peak or high-level consolidation rather than a direct sharp drop.
3. Resistance and risk-reward ratio: The 0.159 level above is a short-term psychological resistance with no substantial trapped positions at the previous high. Wait for the price to pull back near EMA5 to enter long, with a clear stop loss level. However, be cautious: if it breaks the important support at 0.130, the bullish structure is broken, and stop loss must be executed to exit.
$STRK $DOGE
#跟着OKX打卡2049
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% Woke up from a sleep, opened OKX, and BTC is back at 82600. I stared at this number, feeling nothing stirred in my heart.
Last night it surged to 83530 but didn't hold, falling back down is normal. The 82500-82600 range is the support zone I've repeatedly mentioned before. Now it's back to test it, indicating bulls and bears are still wrestling at this level.
I glanced at the order book; there's support around 82500, but the buying isn't aggressive. Sell orders are still stacked between 83500-84000. The volume has shrunk a lot compared to when the market was dumped. The panic selling is over. Now it's a consolidation after overselling, not a trend reversal. ETH should still be hovering around 2485, it hasn't broken above 2500. The usual problem with ETH following BTC up but not down hasn't changed at all.
I'll mark the key levels:
$BTC: Support at 82000-82500, as long as it doesn't break below on a pullback, it's still stable; resistance at 83500-84000, only a volume breakout above this qualifies to look at 84500-85000.
ETH: Support at 2450-2470, if broken look for 2400; resistance at 2500-2520, failure to break means a rebound.I first got into it after hearing friends talk about $BTC.
Back then, I knew nothing and just followed along to buy a little.
The next day after buying, it dropped, and I was scratching my head.
Those days, I couldn't even enjoy my meals, always wanting to check my phone.
Later, it bounced back a bit, so I quickly sold.
Made enough for a barbecue, which actually made me bolder.
Then I tried $ETH, and the transfer fees made me grimace.
Once I waited for confirmation until midnight, almost falling asleep holding my phone.
Later, I heard $SOL was fast, so I got itchy and jumped in again.
It was really fast, but when congested, it made me want to curse.
After messing around for over half a year, I didn't make much money.
But my dark circles definitely got deeper.
Some people in the group shout out trades, then go silent.
There are tons of screenshots showing profits, but those losing money stay quiet.
I've chased highs and got stuck, and also cut losses.
Chasing highs felt like standing on a mountain peak; cutting losses was followed by a rebound.
That feeling was like hitting myself.
Later, I learned my lesson and only play with spare money.
Losing it doesn't affect my meals.
No borrowing, no leverage, no risking everything.
If I don't understand a project, no matter how hyped, I don't touch it.
Being able to sleep at night is better than anything.
Don't get cocky when winning, don't get stubborn when losing.
There are opportunities in this field, but even more traps.
Don't risk your life; if you have a job, keep working.
That's about it, lessons I learned the hard way.#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049
#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 After $BTC dropped to the 80,000 mark on Thursday, it bounced back to 82,800 on Friday, but the bounce wasn't from new money; it was short covering combined with the tailwind of a rebound in the US stock market.
Why is the bounce weak?
The spot ETF still saw net outflows this week, with nearly $500 million redeemed in a single day on Wednesday, and institutions haven't come back to buy.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is stuck around 5.24%, and the dollar has risen for four consecutive weeks. In this environment, BTC's rebound should be seen as a reduction of positions. More importantly, 82,500 is exactly the average ETF holding cost zone, with all the trapped positions above it.
This bounce from 80,000 is a technical correction, not a trend reversal.
You probably also have the feeling that when prices fall, the market generally believes they will continue to fall; when prices rise, everyone thinks they will keep rising. These are baseless shouts that often lead to getting trapped as that retail investor.
So we need to understand why prices rise or fall to buy with more confidence. Don't rush blindly! 今天早上我把4小时图拉出来看的时候，愣了一下。 MACD的DIF线从零轴下方穿上来了，数值130.4，DEA还在负14.2，柱状体翻正到289.2并且在放大。这是从10月2日高点87,249跌下来之后，4小时级别第一次出现MACD金叉。 可能有人觉得金叉不金叉的无所谓，技术指标而已。但如果你经历过几轮行情就知道，4小时级别的MACD金叉，往往意味着一段持续几天到几周的反弹周期。从87,249跌到80,344，跌了将近7,000点，中间1小时、15分钟的金叉出现过好几次，但全都夭折了。唯独4小时，一直没有。现在它终于来了。 但这还不是最关键的。我翻了一遍过去24小时的快讯，发现至少有三个信号，绝大多数人都没注意到，或者注意到了但没当回事。这三个信号叠加在一起，说明80,344之后的这轮反弹，性质可能跟之前几次完全不同。 第一个信号，CME的比特币期货持仓暴增了9.36%。 CME公布的最新周报显示，BTC持仓21,432张，环比增加9.36%。要知道CME是机构的主战场，能在CME开仓的不是散户，是对冲基金、家族办公室、传统资管。在BTC从87,000跌到80,000的这一周里，机构不仅Stagflation expectations are heating up, and the market is waiting for a data point
Employment has already shown signs of weakness, yet oil prices stubbornly hold firm. The economy is declining, inflation won't come down—stagflation is moving from expectation to reality.
October 14 CPI is the most critical verification window recently. Institutions unanimously expect a significant rise in the energy sub-index; this data will most likely set the tone for the direction ahead. The current 82,000 is merely a short-term support level, not a solid bottom. The subsequent market direction largely depends on the signals given by this CPI.
The Fed's hawkish tone is growing denser, long-term US Treasury yields remain high without easing, and the upside space for Bitcoin is continuously compressed.
Some still explain the market by regulation or insider news. Wake up, the real pressure this round comes from macro liquidity tightening, rooted in inflation stickiness caused by disruptions in crude oil supply.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $ETH Short Position Review
At noon on the 8th, Ethereum dropped with increased volume 📉, confirming a breakdown, so I followed the trend to short. Entry cost was 2550, stop loss at 2591, first target at 2449.
① Close 30% at 2449
② Close another 30% at 2422
The stop loss for the remaining 40% position was moved down from 2591 to 2510 to continue betting on the possibility of further decline.
What was done right: waited for the breakdown before entering, took profits in batches, moved stop loss down, accepted being stopped out.
What can be improved: entry was somewhat passive, chasing the short after the breakdown, so the risk was still considerable.
Bitcoin and Binance Coin are currently consolidating sideways, waiting for the next trading opportunity.
Where would you take profits? Feel free to discuss $MAGIC Has anyone who is long thought about this: it's tough for him to pump against our shorts, but can you really get out when he dumps??? Take profits when you should, let the shorts catch a break and take some gains.Crypto Watch - October 10 Cryptocurrency Market Overview and Trading Suggestions
Market Snapshot: BTC is currently around $82,500, up 0.92% in 24h; ETH is at $2,487, up 0.45% in 24h but down 8.1% over the past seven days. The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to its lowest since August. OKX data shows BTC briefly broke above 83,000 USDT before retreating to around 82,000, with limited rebound strength.
Market Background: Thursday's sharp drop triggered about $1.19 billion in leveraged liquidations, with BTC bottoming at $80,427; BTC ETFs saw cumulative outflows exceeding $700 million over two days, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped to a neutral level of 56. Overall, the current rebound is a technical recovery after deleveraging, with capital flow not yet strengthening.
Key Levels: BTC support at $82,500 and $80,000, resistance at $83,000 and $84,433; ETH short-term range between $2,475 and $2,510, with $2,400 as key support.
Trading Suggestions: Do not chase the rebound; hold light positions and wait for confirmation. Consider adding to BTC positions only if volume supports a stable break above $83,000; actively manage risk if it falls below $80,000. For ETH, short-term trades can be made with high sells and low buys within the $2,475-$2,510 range until a breakout occurs. Avoid high leverage and prioritize spot holdings.
The above is market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.🚨 Nearly 200,000 people were liquidated, and 1.4 billion funds instantly wiped out!
Is this pullback a reversal signal or the last chance to escape?
$BTC dropped to 80351 last night, then rebounded to 82500, with only a slight 1.8% increase in 24 hours.
📊 Key focus on institutions:
On October 8, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of 484.9 million, the largest single-day outflow since June; BlackRock IBIT alone had an outflow of 207.7 million.
It should be noted that the rise from 57750 to 87239 was entirely driven by incremental ETF funds. Now the main force not only hasn't returned but is accelerating its withdrawal.
Market consensus: ETF needs continuous net inflows exceeding 300 million for several days for institutional sentiment to truly warm up.
⚠️ The market remains bearish:
Nearly 200,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, amounting to nearly 1.4 billion, with longs accounting for over 90%, and high-level chasing continues to be cleaned out.
Daily moving averages show bearish divergence, falling more than 8% from 87239, with weak rebound strength. Although there is room above, without capital returning, reversal is hard to confirm.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
$ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Buy the dip! The Eleven Boss is scaling in at 30X leverage in batches, half recovering and half deeply trapped.
During the big leverage liquidation, he entered the market counter-trend to catch the dip, all at 30X, mainly targeting two major mainstream coins, plus one flexible position to bet on a rebound.
$BTC ｜ Two large additional positions placed between 81987-80832, average cost diluted to 81411.5, floating profit +12.71%, the first wave of the surge is holding for now.
$ETH ｜ Three heavy bets between 2514-2447, full position at 30X leverage holding firm, floating loss -59.64%, the largest hole in the whole set.
Flexible position｜ Additional long positions continue to amplify volatility, betting on excess returns from a recovery market.
The logic is simple: waiting for a retaliatory rebound after leverage clears out.
If the recovery is delayed, the 30X level won’t wait patiently. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Looking back
Every deposit was a mistake
Every withdrawal and stopping was the right choice
Crypto is purely a casino I first saw people talking about $BTC while scrolling on my phone.
At that time, I felt it had nothing to do with me.
Later, my colleagues talked about it every day, my ears got calloused.
I took a few hundred bucks, and with a shake of my hand, I bought in.
The next day after buying, it dropped.
It dropped so much I couldn't even afford milk tea.
I stared at that line every day, my eyes got sore.
When it rose back a bit, I immediately ran.
Made some money for fried chicken, felt pretty good inside.
Then I got bolder and went for $ETH.
The transfer fees were so expensive I kept clicking my tongue.
Once it got stuck for a long time, I thought my money was gone.
Later I heard $SOL was fast, and I couldn't resist.
It was really fast, but when congested, it was really frustrating.
After messing around for more than half a year, my account didn't grow, but I got thinner.
People in the group shouted buy signals, then went silent.
There were tons of screenshots showing profits, but those losing money stayed quiet.
I chased highs and got trapped, also cut losses.
Chasing highs stood on the mountain top, cutting losses just led to rebounds.
That feeling made me want to slap myself.
Later I learned my lesson, only play with spare money.
Losing it doesn't affect my meals.
No borrowing, no leverage, no betting the house.
Projects I don't understand, no matter how hyped, I don't touch.
Being able to sleep at night is better than anything.
Don't get cocky when winning, don't get stubborn when losing.
There are opportunities in this field, but more traps.
Don't risk your life; work when you should work.
Eat when you should eat, spend time with family when you should.
That's about it, lessons I learned the hard way. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049
#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 Progress Update: New developments in the Ledger Southeast Asia dealer CryptoBilis theft case — hackers used 4 wallets to send 430.2 ETH (about $1.07 million) into Tornado Cash; Tether has frozen some of the involved funds, and the suspects immediately swapped USDT for USDD via SUN.io and USDD's PSM, while another portion of the funds flowed into Binance hot wallets; related wallets still hold about $70.6 million in assets.
Progress Update: Hackers have started laundering money
The $ETH funds are basically unrecoverable. Onchain Lens monitoring shows the suspects used 4 wallets to send 430.2 ETH (about $1.07 million) into Tornado Cash. Once the money enters the mixer, on-chain analysts are basically done. Related wallets still hold about $70.6 million: 11,400 ETH, 213 BTC, 13.64 million USDD, 10.9 million USDT.
$USDT was just frozen, and they immediately switched routes. After Tether froze some of the involved funds, the suspects swapped USDT for USDD via SUN.io and USDD's PSM, and part of the funds flowed into Binance hot wallets.Reminder❗️❗️❗️There have been multiple recent cases online of Ledger users' wallets being stolen.
A Bitcoin user purchased a Ledger hardware wallet from cryptoBilis to store 80 BTC, which was stolen today. These bitcoins were bought in April for $65,000 each, valued at about $5.2 million at the time, with a current unrealized profit of $1.38 million. Now both the principal and profit are gone.
Another user with the address TY24Ya also bought a Ledger device from CryptoBilis three weeks ago, then deposited 7 million USDT, which was stolen 10 hours later. Recently, multiple user wallet theft incidents have occurred. Tracking the related stolen coin addresses revealed funds from hundreds of victims' wallets involved, with losses exceeding $86 million across major blockchains including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tron.
What should you do if you are currently using a Ledger hardware wallet?
1. Ledger officially advises users who purchased devices from CryptoBilis in the past 90 days not to initialize the device. If already set up, create a new Ledger signing device with new mnemonic phrases and transfer assets to the new wallet.
2. Users who purchased hardware wallets from other dealers should be vigilant to avoid arbitrary interactions if already in use. If not yet used, wait for the official investigation results before deciding whether to continue using it. #Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 Did nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already taken the profit from my short position. Yesterday afternoon, the market was still fluctuating repeatedly, $UNI every time it surged was just short of breath, the volume was clearly insufficient, and the resistance above was too obvious. I judged this as a bull trap, bearish bearish, opened a short near 9.126.
When the screen was full of green, sell orders came wave after wave, no one was buying. If the trend isn't broken, hold on; if it breaks, run—don't fall in love with the market.
As a result, it dropped straight from 9.126 to 7.374, short position +959.89% profit in hand. Nailed it, brothers. The previous endurance was worth it, this rhythm was spot on.
Position action: first close 80%, pocket the bulk of the profit, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don't give the profit back. Don't be greedy for the last bit.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to chase shorts, rebounds are easy to get trapped. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you immediately. There are still opportunities, don't rush.
$BTC $SNDK Arthur Hayes said in an interview this week that AI data centers represent trillions of dollars in overbuilding, which will ultimately end in a crash followed by a bailout, with the liquidity released being absorbed by assets like $BTC. The premise of this chain is that the related debt becomes so large that official intervention is required, and the bailout funds will flow into crypto. His own timeline is by the end of 2027 to when new capacity comes online in 2028. $BTC briefly dropped to just over $80,000 on Thursday, more than 30% below last year's high of $126,000, with over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours. The overlooked aspect is that the first phase of AI credit issues usually involves liquidity being drained first; the $19.1 billion liquidation on October 10 last year was a sample of crypto falling first under macro shocks. This logic cannot be verified within this year. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. $ADA's most dangerous misconception right now is equating "strong trend" directly with "continuing to chase is safe."
Current price 0.2527, 24h +8.18%; 1-hour slightly strong, 4-hour slightly strong, volume about 3.77 times the average volume of the last 20 bars.
I break it down into two scenarios: A, breaking through 0.2562, confirming the short-term structure; B, falling below 0.2338, original judgment invalid, next observation point shifts to 0.2238.
No preset answers, just watching which condition happens first. Which scenario do you think is more likely to occur first, A or B?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.$DOGE: Long Position
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back to the 0.0850-0.0855 range (EMA moving average dense support zone) and stabilize before entering long.
· Target first at 0.08654 (24-hour high); if effectively broken through, then look at 0.0880. Set stop loss below 0.0840.
Core basis:
1. Bullish moving averages: On the 1-hour level, EMA5 (0.08585), EMA10 (0.08548), and EMA20 (0.08524) are tightly aligned and diverging upwards; price is running above all three lines, maintaining a short-term bullish structure since 0.08092.
2. Bottom volume reversal: After a sharp drop from 0.09757 to 0.08092, the bottom showed significant volume increase and a deep V reversal, indicating the bearish momentum is completely exhausted and strong accumulation by major funds at low levels.
3. Pattern consolidation and accumulation: Currently, there is low volume sideways movement at a high level, representing a healthy consolidation after a sharp rise. There is short-term selling pressure at 0.08654 above, making a direct breakout less likely; pulling back to buy with clear stop loss is preferable for a better risk-reward ratio.
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 【Today's Family Status Report】
👑 Head of the Family: $DOGE (Big Golden Retriever)
This dog bit me once during the day (still lost 68U last night), but today it instantly transformed into a fierce Hellhound! Current price 0.0863, wildly pulling 164.35U (+34.39%). It proves that the dog is still family. The liquidation price is 0.0812, the leash is tightly held, now it's flying in the sky, and I'm running along holding the leash.
🧔 The Steady Anchor: $BTC (Old Yellow Ox)
Opened position at 82345.6, current price 82577.11, quietly farming a profit of 35.93U (+5.62%). The big coin plays the role of emotional stability, no nonsense, and doesn't steal the spotlight. The liquidation price at 78,597 means it's miles away from danger.
🛋️ The Leisure Expert: $ETH (Sofa Potato)
Opened position at 2491.4, current price 2492.15. After a whole day of tossing and turning, finally earned... 2.11U (+0.58%). Yes, you read that right, just enough to buy a meat bun! Constantly hovering around the cost line, embodying the motto "Companionship is the longest confession of love."
【Summary】
These three combined have an overall floating profit of about 202U in the account today. From previously having long positions in ICU, to reversing to short and singing KTV, and now all bulls enjoying a big feast. This plot twist is something even the scriptwriters wouldn't dare to write.
#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解
#Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失
#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元 💬💬 1010 10:45
$STRK $MAGIC Avoid shorting for now; those who want to short need to wait for a right-side trade, meaning entering after the downtrend has ended.
The following are all based on experience because I've seen so many cases.
1. Trading volume keeps rising, from tens of millions to over a billion in 27 hours, then breaking 234.5 billion—this requires special caution;
2. Both of these are considered stealthy rises, where even the 15-minute candlesticks are short. In this situation, how can the price rise in cycles? One batch of retail investors after another enters, thinking they've caught the peak.
The biggest downside of this stealthy rise is that it basically can't blow out shorts or stop losses. So why would it fall?
3. $MAGIC just produced a few long candlesticks, but none with a relatively long upper wick. There might still be a few or one very long 5-minute candlestick with an upper wick. Otherwise, it will oscillate back and forth within 5 to 10 points, then rally. This is the premise of a rapid drop. Otherwise, it’s a slow decline, which will be preceded by a long period of oscillation lasting quite a while.
4. STRK is currently in a consolidation phase, just with a relatively large range. I still remain bullish.
Those shorting can only wait patiently for the right opportunity; those going long should keep positions small, but there are still profits to be made. $BTC
BTC has rebounded to yesterday's short position zone but has not yet reached the take-profit level.
Last night, the highest was 83499.9, entering the pressure zone of 83000–83500 given yesterday, then falling back to 82241.5. The first target of 80500 has not been reached yet.
Currently around 82500, the bias for the next 1–3 days remains a rebound short, no chasing shorts at the current position.
1. The rebound has not changed the weak structure
The daily EMA21 and 4-hour EMA21 are both near 83100, and the price is still suppressed below them. In the past 24 hours, the price rose about 1.1%, BTC-denominated OI fell about 0.5%, showing characteristics of short covering, so it cannot be confirmed that bulls are taking over for a breakout.
ETF net outflows totaled about $729 million on October 7–8.
2. Continue to wait for the pressure zone today, no opening positions in the middle
Stay flat and wait for 83000–83500: after a spike, if the price closes below 83000 within 1 hour and the rebound cannot hold above, then consider a small short position. Stop loss at 84400, target first at 80500, then 79000.
Do not add to existing short positions here. There is still support at 81600–81800 below; do not prematurely treat a break below as a waterfall. If the 4-hour candle closes above 83500 and holds on a retest, cancel this short position plan.大家好，周六，我们把这一周完整复盘一遍。本周最后一个交易日，美股给了一个比较体面的收尾：道指涨0.83%，标普500涨0.59%到7811点，纳指涨0.64%，三大指数全周都是收涨，标普距离历史高点只差一步之遥。周四那场由"AI收入不及预期"引发的科技股恐慌，在周五被一份"OpenAI年底年化收入有望达到约700亿美元"的报道冲淡，科技股回补。但结构上并不轻松：美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心初值降到46.3，是五个月来的低点，美债10年期收益率仍在5.25%左右的高位，美联储纪要也确认了"年底前再加一次"的路径。 地缘和油价是本周后半段最大的扰动。周四有消息说五角大楼在为伊朗方向的行动做准备，油价冲高，布伦特一度突破104美元；周五特朗普表态，中期选举（11月3日）之前美国不会对伊朗动手，油价随之回落，布伦特目前在103-104美元一线，美债收益率也从周四的高点回落。 币圈的节奏则要剧烈得多。周四晚间BTC一度下探到8.04万附近，24小时爆仓超过10亿美元，其中多头占了九成以上，而且ETH的爆仓额甚至超过了BTC，说明前面一周在8.3万到8.7万区间里积累的杠杆，在跌破区间之后被集中STRK rose nearly 22%, but contract open interest has fallen about 15% from the intraday peak.
As of 10:12 Beijing time, OKX spot is around $0.07468, with a 24-hour high of $0.0777 and low of $0.06018, a volatility of about 29%; the current price is about 3.9% below the high, with a trading volume of approximately $46.68 million.
OKX hourly statistics show the latest nominal open interest value is about $12.88 million, up about 56% from 24 hours ago, but down about 10% from 12 hours ago, and also about 15% below the intraday peak; the funding rate is about 0.005%, and the perpetual contract discount is about 0.05%.
My judgment is that the price remains close to the high, but leverage has already cooled down, which looks more like high-level turnover than a "price and open interest surge together." The easiest misjudgment is to interpret the decline in open interest directly as healthy deleveraging; it may also indicate that new longs are starting to retreat, as open interest itself does not provide directional information.
Next, watch 0.0777 and 0.070. If open interest only moderately rises when breaking the previous high and the funding rate remains neutral, turnover may continue to support the price; if it falls below 0.070 and open interest rises again, counter-trend leverage will amplify the pullback.
$STRK How many people are left before the discount ends?
$SUI pays transaction fees for users, saving them the hassle of the first-time use.
It supports sponsored transactions, where fees are covered by other accounts, so users don’t need to prepare SUI in advance.
But there’s still a gap between free trials and long-term use depending on how good the product itself is.
I think the more valuable question is how many old users return after subsidies decrease. If every growth requires additional discounts, activity comes with a cost; if users are willing to keep coming back, the initial investment might turn into a long-term business. Discounts can get people through the door, but keeping them requires other reasons.
$AVAX allows projects to have their own chains, which is a way to attract developers.
An independent L1 can customize fee tokens and rules, giving projects more autonomy.
My question is whether there will be enough business to sustain it after the chain is built.
High freedom also means greater operational responsibility. Launching a chain is just the starting point; continuous transactions and willingness to bear maintenance costs are what prove demand can withstand time. The number of launches alone can’t be taken as a measure of success.
$WLD user rewards can help network expansion, and the whitepaper also allocates tokens to users.
But people who have received rewards and those who frequently use the app are not the same kind of growth.
I care more about what people actually come back to do after identity verification. How many daily needs remain when rewards decrease determines the quality of expansion.
Registration records accumulate, but usage habits need to happen repeatedly; these two data points are worth looking at separately.How to view today
$BTC rebounds to 83,235 to 83,500 then short, target 81,700. Can also short if it breaks below 79,500, no long positions today.
$ETH rebounds to 2,520 to 2,545 then short, target 2,440. Do not chase below 2,450.
$ZEC rebounds to 1,246 to 1,270 then short, target 1,186. Bears are crowded, stop loss must be strict.
The most impactful events
1. Trump says no strike on Iran before election, oil prices fall, but risk is only postponed.
2. US inflation expectations rise to highest since May, market cautious before CPI.
3. After options expiry, BTC surged near 83,500 then fell back.
4. BTC and ETH ETFs are still seeing outflows.
5. Zcash ETF application has been submitted.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC
BTC resumes its rise, but why can't the rebound yet be considered a trend recovery?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 81903.7—83530.1 USDT, change +0.83%, trading volume approximately 353.52 million USDT.
The rebound recovers part of the lost ground, indicating buyers are re-engaging, but a one-day rolling return cannot describe a longer cycle. Yesterday's sharp drop left supply to reduce losses; only after the price returns to the original trading range will it test whether this portion of chips is willing to continue selling.
I am more focused on whether the next pullback can hold above 81903.7; if it breaks down again and cannot recover, the repair explanation is downgraded. If it breaks through 83530.1 and still holds, evidence of sustained support increases.Samsung's profits hit a new high, and the key is to determine where the growth is coming from.
If the profit growth mainly comes from the rebound in storage chip prices and AI-related demand, it indicates that the semiconductor industry's prosperity is improving.
However, a single quarter's record profit does not mean the entire cycle has entered a sustained upward phase. It is still necessary to observe storage prices, inventory levels, order demand, and guidance for the next quarter.
For tech stocks, earnings beating expectations can drive valuation upgrades, but if the market has already priced this in early, a pullback may still occur after the positive news is realized.
The core of trading is to distinguish between cyclical rebounds and structural growth, rather than simply chasing profit records.
#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $SOL: Short
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 110.50-111.50 range (previous small platform and EMA moving average resistance zone) and then enter short after resistance.
· Target first at 108.37 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at the previous low of 105.61. Set stop loss above 112.50.
Core basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour level, the price has been continuously falling from 122.25, with EMA5/10/20 diverging downward. Although there is a rebound, the price remains in the bearish resistance zone, and the overall downtrend remains unchanged.
2. Poor volume-price coordination: The decline phase was accompanied by significant volume expansion, while the current low-level rebound volume has shrunk sharply, indicating weak bullish support. This is a typical weak recovery after overselling, lacking momentum.
3. Resistance and risk-reward ratio: The 110-112 area above is a previous dense trading zone with heavy trapped positions, making a direct breakout highly unlikely. Using 112.50 as defense, the downside play tests 108.37 or even 105.61, with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Dogecoin, born in the United States, has a Layer2 testnet with a Japanese name — this itself is the best testament to the global nature of the DOGE community.
On September 30, the MyDoge wallet team launched the public testnet of DogeOS, named "Chikyū," which means "Earth" in Japanese. This network is based on zero-knowledge proof technology, compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine, uses DOGE to pay transaction fees, and aims to support applications such as lending, trading, and gaming, while the Dogecoin main chain itself remains unchanged.
Naming is never a trivial matter. The crypto industry conventionally uses English or technical terms to name networks, but DogeOS chose a Japanese word. Behind this choice lies the actual composition of the Dogecoin community: it originated in the U.S., the Shiba Inu mascot comes from Japan, and holders and developers are spread worldwide. A project made by an American team borrows a term from Japanese culture and opens itself to developers globally, naturally erasing language boundaries here.
The word "Earth" itself is meaningful. The testnet is a prototype of the mainnet, and by naming it Earth, the team implies that this ecosystem is not aimed at users from a specific region but at everyone. For twelve years, $DOGE has bridged cultural gaps through the Shiba Inu image — you don’t need to understand English to recognize that dog face. Now, naming the application layer in Japanese continues the same logic: cultural symbols lead, and technical infrastructure follows. Let's not talk about bottom-fishing today; the news about Ledger is more worth noting.
Some users who purchased devices from the Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis have reported asset losses. Ledger has requested this distributor to suspend sales and shipments and is currently investigating.
What chills the spine is: this is still an official distributor, not some shady second-hand shop.
However, the cause and scale of the losses have not been confirmed yet, so don't jump to conclusions that "all Ledger devices have been hacked."
The official reminder is that for devices purchased from this channel in the past 90 days, do not initialize those that haven't been set up yet; for those already activated, consider migrating to a new device using a brand-new mnemonic phrase.
A cold wallet isn't safe just because you bought it. First, verify the purchase channel, and don't panic-click on unfamiliar links like "emergency migration" or "security verification," and definitely don't give out your mnemonic phrase.
The market may dip and fluctuate, but if your wallet is emptied, it won't rebound with the market.Down 11% this week, whales sold 100 million coins — why I’m not running with them
First, the data: DOGE dropped 11 points this week, back near 0.85, with a market cap of $13.46 billion.
It’s not just the price that looks bad. Santiment data shows wallets holding between one million and 100 million coins collectively reduced their holdings by 100 million coins starting October 6. On the other hand, the daily chart on October 6 just formed the first golden cross in 14 months, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average. The momentum was still hot, but this week’s pullback poured cold water on it.
With bullish and bearish signals mixed like this, retail investors feel the worst: run because of the golden cross; stay because whales are withdrawing.
Here’s some honest advice from an experienced player. The golden cross is a rearview mirror, telling you the car has turned, but it doesn’t guarantee there’s no pit ahead. Whales selling is the same — 100 million sounds scary, but spread across the whole market, it’s just a ripple. I see all these signals, but I don’t treat them as gospel.
I’m calmer about the #12 ranking. Back in 2015, $DOGE dropped beyond the top 50, yet the community kept tipping and the chain kept producing a block every minute. Rankings are fluid, but block production is solid.
I haven’t changed my position. It’s not about being bullish this week; it’s about what I’m watching, which isn’t measured in weeks.Do not consider stablecoins absolutely safe
$USDT is the most widely used
Transfers are fast but reserves must be monitored
$USDC is more regulated
Commonly used for deposits and withdrawals
Not without risks either
$DAI operates on on-chain collateral
The mechanism is complex
Still panics during depegging
Don't just look at the name containing stable
Look at the chain
Look at the fees
Look at the redemption channels
Test with small amounts
Don't go all in
Think twice about high-yield wealth management
Where does the interest come from
When the market is volatile
Stablecoins can also shake
Do your own research
Don't be lazy
The money is yours
If you lose, no one will compensate you #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049