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🔥 500U Challenge to 10,000U｜Account Surpasses 1,100U!
Yesterday's pullback was basically recovered, and the account balance has returned above 1,100U. Continuing to track market changes.
📊 Let's talk about yesterday's market:
BTC and ETH surged quickly after the non-farm payroll data release but failed to hold above the previous highs and then retreated. Personally, I think this may be related to profit-taking on positive news and some long positions closing.
📉 Next, focus on two key signals:
1️⃣ US Treasury yields: September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, below the market expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data release, US Treasury yields first fell then rebounded, indicating market divergence on inflation and interest rate outlook.
2️⃣ Geopolitical risks: The Middle East situation remains uncertain, and changes in energy prices and risk sentiment may also affect the short-term trend of the crypto market.
Currently, I am more focused on whether US Treasury yields can continue to decline and how BTC and ETH respond when facing previous highs.
ZEC short positions have been closed, while BTC and ETH shorts are still being monitored for now, waiting for clearer signals from the market on Monday before considering next steps.
There are opportunities in the market every day; controlling drawdowns and maintaining patience are more important than blindly chasing the market.
This is only a personal trading record and market observation, not investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please manage risks carefully.Those shouting for 100,000 have forgotten that there are still people standing behind the wall.
The 85,000 wall has been broken.
It got stuck several times, so yesterday the highest price was roughly between 87,200 and 87,240 USD.
Then the bulls started shouting: next stop 100,000.
But today the lowest price dropped back to about 84,450–84,460 USD.
Why?
The wall is gone, but the people behind the wall are still there.
Who is waiting to sell?
A group of people who have been trapped for a long time.
They bought at high prices last year and are now almost breaking even.
Trapped for almost a year, feeling miserable every day.
Now that the price climbs back to their cost line,
what is their first reaction?
Run.
Break even and run, leaving without losing a cent.
This group of people is the new wall.
One just above 85,000.
Another near 90,000.
So what is the current situation?
The old wall is gone, but the new wall hasn’t been broken yet.
Every step up,
there’s a batch of people turning from losing money to breaking even, then throwing their chips out.
Someone has to keep buying.
Look at the hotspots.
A bunch of people are clustered, betting on a rise to 100,000.
There’s 90,000, 95,000, and mostly 100,000.
Real money is staked there.
But think about it, the more crowded the bets,
what does that mean?
It means everyone is thinking the same.
When everyone thinks the same, that’s often when it’s easiest to fall.
Also, this whole rise was bought on borrowed money with leverage.
I mentioned this yesterday, right?Non-farm payrolls sharply cooled down, can I continue holding my SOL long position? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
A high school student trading live since 2008, now over thirty days in. This time, the non-farm data was much lower than market expectations, employment weakened, and the market will bet on subsequent rate cuts, overall bringing positive sentiment to the crypto space.
But positive news doesn’t mean blindly chasing the rally. I currently hold a SOL long position, with a small portion of floating profit. The liquidity outlook is favorable as a mid-to-long-term fundamental logic, but short-term the market may see profit-taking after the good news.
For SOL, short-term resistance is at the previous high; if the key round-number support below holds, I will continue holding. As a student with limited capital, I constantly remind myself that news-driven market volatility is large, and I must never heavily bet on data. The market can reverse at any time; steady position management and slowly accumulating profits is suitable for ordinary people.
⚠ This is only my personal review and communication, not investment advice
#08年高中生实盘850u到8000u$BTC $ETH Today BTC is around $84,600–84,800, ETH around $2,675–2,685. Both are digesting the same "upper shadow": macro positives pushed the price near 87,000 / 2,777, while geopolitical risks and profit-taking pushed the price back to the starting point.
BTC: Not a simple breakout, but a "liquidity repricing"
BTC last night hit a high near $87,200, then fell back to the $84,000+ range, with a single-day market cap fluctuation of about $50 billion.
The uniqueness lies in:
🔥 Selling pressure near $85,000 was clearly digested, but above $87,000 is still not an easy zone.
🔥 ETF funds are flowing back; on October 1, IBIT net inflow was about $102.7 million, indicating institutional buying is still participating.
🔥 Open interest rebounded, about $52 billion at the end of September, rising to about $56.2 billion in early October, leverage is rising again.
🔥 $90,000–100,000 is the next dense zone for options and on-chain costs, with significant bullish option positions at 90k, 95k, and 100k.
BTC now looks more like an "institutional allocation asset": when macro eases, it moves first; when geopolitical tension rises, it is first tested as a safe haven.
ETH: ETF inflows exist, but liquidity and relative strength are weak
ETH peaked at $2,777–2,779, bottomed at $2,650–2,675, closing clearly weaker than BTC.
Its unique contradiction is:
🔥 ETH spot ETFs still have net inflows this year, about $863 million cumulatively by 2026, institutions have not fully exited.
🔥 But ETH’s relative strength to BTC has stalled, ETH/BTC repeatedly failed to hold above 0.033.
🔥 On CEX liquidity, ETH depth has dropped to 35%–45% of BTC, below last year’s over 60%.
🔥 This means ETH is more easily driven by BTC but harder to independently form a strong trend.
ETH currently is not a "failed trend reversal," but lacks rebound resilience. It needs BTC to stabilize and itself to reclaim $2,720 to have a chance to attack $2,775–2,825 again. Ethereum gave back the latest push pretty fast.
Price reached the $2,740s, got rejected and is now sitting almost exactly on the lower edge of the recent 4H range.
For $ETH , $2,645-$2,660 is the area that matters now. Hold it and take back $2,690-$2,700 and another move toward the range highs is still possible.
A clean 4H close below $2,645 would change the picture though. That would leave $2,610 as the next area on my chart.
Not a breakout setup yet.In the past 10 years, the growth of the US stock market's seven sisters:
NVIDIA 100x
Tesla 27.26x
Apple 11.98x
Google 8x
Microsoft 8.56x
Amazon 5.44x
Meta 5.1x
If you include the Nasdaq index, it ranks second to last, with a growth of 5.32x.
Obviously, if you have a US stock account or a crypto account, the average return from buying the seven sisters is much higher than the Nasdaq, with a return of 23.78x, while buying the Nasdaq only yields 5.32x. 🔥Today I finally admitted: I might really not be suited for long-term holding.
BTC dropped back to just above 84,000, ETH also returned to 2,664. It felt like a busy week, but the prices just went back.
😮💨 What really scared me this time wasn’t the market drop, but that I found my personality slowly changing when facing a position.
At the start of opening a position, I was very clear-headed: if the direction was wrong, I would leave immediately, never dragging it out.
⏳ But after holding for a while, I started fantasizing about the future. Thinking it would rise in a few days, thinking it would come back in a week, so I didn’t stop loss when I should, didn’t take profit when I should, and even kept adding to the position.
📉 In the end, I went from floating profit to floating loss, then close to liquidation.
This time I almost really fell, but it made me completely understand.
🛡️ Since long-term holding makes me lose discipline, I won’t do long-term holding.
Starting today, I will only trade within my controllable intraday rhythm: trade when there’s opportunity, stay out when there isn’t, and close all positions by the end of the day.
🌙 No overnight positions, no betting on the next day, no telling stories to the market.
Sometimes progress in trading isn’t about learning more indicators, but finally knowing what you can’t do.
Brothers, what trading habit do you most want to quit? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 🔥This night really taught me a lesson: the market can suddenly turn against you, but what almost got me into trouble was my own refusal to exit.
BTC dropped back near 84000, ETH reached 2664; yesterday it was still rising, today it wiped out a week's worth of fluctuations.
😨 When I saw my position close to the liquidation line, I truly realized that "being able to hold on" never equals "being able to make money."
🧩 My biggest problem before was turning short-term trading into long-term investing.
When opening a position, the plan was clear: cut losses if wrong; but once the holding period extended, emotions started to take over.
If it rose: wait a bit longer, it can go higher.
If it fell: wait a bit longer, it will definitely come back.
📉 Then I kept adding to the position until the original trading plan completely disappeared, leaving only the phrase "wait a bit longer."
🚪 So starting today, I set the simplest rule for myself: only day trading, close all positions at the close, and don’t carry today’s mistakes into tomorrow.
💡 Making money is not the primary goal; first learn to survive, and don’t let one trade wipe you back to square one.
After trading for so long, isn’t the biggest pitfall not the market, but yourself? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 CME suspends 24/7 crude oil futures; on the surface, this looks like a new product being halted, but behind it is a traditional financial market's reassessment of the "around-the-clock trading" model.
On October 3rd, it was reported that CME withdrew the filing for the 10-barrel crude oil futures due to opposition from industry participants. CME had planned to launch this product to allow investors to participate in WTI crude oil with smaller contract sizes and enable weekend 24/7 trading.
The problem lies precisely in "24/7."
One of the biggest differences between crude oil and crypto assets is that the real spot market, market makers, and hedging demand for crude oil do not operate continuously over the weekend. If liquidity is insufficient on weekends but prices continue to trade, sudden geopolitical or supply news could cause sparse quotes, widened spreads, and distorted price discovery.
More troublesome is that continuous trading increases the pressure on market making, hedging, risk management, and margin calls during non-business hours.
Therefore, this suspension does not mean there is no demand for 24/7 trading; rather, it indicates that the market demand for around-the-clock trading has emerged, but traditional financial infrastructure still needs to address liquidity and risk management issues.
My judgment is that this event actually holds a noteworthy significance for the crypto market.
The crypto market is naturally suited for 7×24-hour trading because spot, derivatives, clearing, and fund management all operate continuously. If traditional finance wants to fully enter the 24/7 era, what it truly needs to improve is not trading hours but weekend liquidity, risk pricing, and clearing.I only trust one basic common sense: when DAT companies like bmnr or MicroStrategy hold more and more chips of Ethereum or Bitcoin, who else would be willing to rush in and bail out these two treasury companies?
New incoming funds, aren't they worried about these treasury companies selling coins and crashing the market? What's even scarier is that this round of bear market decline is somewhat shallow, just a bit over 50%. If the US stock AI crash happens, can these treasury companies really withstand the wild plunge of Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Moreover, it could be a prolonged period of sharp and gradual decline. Can these two hold on? MicroStrategy endured a test in 2022, but bmnr did not, and other DATs even less so. I always feel that having a clear main entity as the largest holder poses risks to the coin. In the dark forest of financial markets, countless shotguns are aimed at them.October 3, 2026
1. Market Trend
BTC fluctuated, altcoins generally fell but some specific themes surged sharply. U.S. stocks rose; U.S. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected approximately 90,000; unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 60,000. The market expects the probability of a Fed rate hike in October to drop below 23%.
2. Market Highlights:
1. Metaverse and gaming concepts collectively surged, with SAND up about 48%, GALA up 16%, MANA up 13%, APE up 11%, and AXS up 7%. No clear fundamental positive news was found; the main drivers were sector rotation and contract short squeeze; SAND funding rate was about -0.72%, MANA about -0.12%, indicating a high degree of short crowding.
2. Privacy concept NIGHT rose about 25%, with gains continuing to expand over the past week. The market trades it as the "next generation ZEC," but this round of gains was not driven by new listings or governance events, mainly propelled by privacy narratives and technological breakthroughs.
3. AI identity concept WLD rose about 9%, quickly recovering after a pullback yesterday. The launch of World Money and expectations of reduced daily token release continue to support the rally.
4. DeFi's AAVE rose about 4.4%, strengthening for the second consecutive day; SKY rose about 2.6%. Aave V4 deposits surpassed $1 billion, with RWA collateral and AI Agent services remaining the main fundamental themes recently. $BTC $ETH #SEC crypto asset custody new rules 🟡 $XAU NOON WATCH
Gold continues to digest the surprise NFP data as traders reassess the rate outlook.
□□ NFP: 29K vs ~90K expected
👷 Unemployment: 4.2%
💵 Wage growth: 3.0% YoY
A weaker jobs report may reinforce expectations for lower rates, but elevated yields and a firm dollar remain key factors for gold.
🎯 $4,200 reclaim.
#DailyOrbit #G7OilReserveRelease #BTCETHETFOutflows Core DAO says it’s handing remaining block-production roles to independent validators, pushing further toward decentralization.
The key question: does this broaden participation, or just shift responsibility? 🤔
#NvidiaRecordHigh #TeslaQ3Deliveries It was greed in the end. Bought above 200, watched it run to 600, but refused to take profit. Held too long and got liquidated on the drop. Only myself to blame. 📉
#NEARFundsRecovered #MicronAIMemoryOutlook Nonfarm payrolls are positive, so why are most liquidations on long positions?
29,000 is the latest increase in nonfarm employment.
The expectation was 84,000, a big miss.
How the data is calculated:
Unemployment rate rises, wage growth slows.
Data for the previous two months was revised downward.
The spike:
When the data came out, rate cut expectations heated up, and $BTC instantly surged.
But once the good news is fully priced in, profit-taking hits immediately.
The leverage trap:
With 100x positions, a 1% adverse price move wipes you out.
Stop-loss orders placed at the spike’s peak were all triggered.
Whether this positive news can hold depends on whether CPI rebounds.
If inflation turns back up, this rally will be erased.
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC Fear and Greed Index at 54, neutral. On the macro side, US Treasury yields have retreated, liquidity expectations have improved, and Bitcoin has been pulled up from around 84,800 to near 87,000, but the market hasn't entered greed territory, indicating that smart money is still probing. MOVR's independent trend is weak, with MACD showing a death cross, RSI bearish, and the price running close to the 1.801 liquidation strong flat zone. The current price of 1.7967 is already at the lower edge of the liquidation zone.
Just finished climbing six floors and placed an order, still sweating and haven't wiped it off yet. Seeing this position, I'm actually not in a hurry to short. Once this large long liquidation zone is pierced by a spike, it can easily trigger a violent rebound after a chain of forced liquidations. As long as Bitcoin doesn't crash, the main force has reason to pull it up by leveraging the liquidity gap.
Operationally, only looking at short-term rebounds. Entry range is 1.78 to 1.80; the closer to 1.801, the better the cost performance. Take profit is first targeted at 1.87, with volume increase then aiming for 1.93. Defensive stop loss is set below 1.75; if a spike wipes it out, accept the loss and don't hold the position.
This position won't exceed 20%, can't go all in like before.
$MOVR
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
@OKX星球 $BTC shorted the first Bitcoin position of 2500u around 86600 yesterday. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the 0.786 level. I have added to the short position, now holding 4000u. It is highly likely to continue down to test the 0.618 level, which is around 82500. Hold tight!!!Woke up to a brutal market sell-off.
Yesterday, I was up more than $480 on $PEPE, but I held on, hoping for an even bigger move. Now I’m sitting on a loss of over $300. One moment you’re in profit, and the next, the market takes it all back.
The lesson is simple: greed can turn a good trade into a painful one. Trading isn’t about catching every last dollar—it’s about having a plan, taking profits when they’re there, and staying disciplined.
Sometimes, being satisfied with a win.
#DailyOrbit Never trade drunk. Opened two positions while drinking on the 27th, woke up stuck in both ever since. Definitely a lesson learned. 😅📉
#NvidiaRecordHigh #NEARFundsRecovered Bitcoin surged to 86,000, but then got slammed back down.
This is the most interesting part to watch today.
Yesterday, we were still debating whether 85,000 could be broken,
today it broke through directly.
But what happened after the breakout?
Instead of continuing to rally, it started to fall back after reaching around 86,000.
So the real question now is no longer:
"Can Bitcoin break through 85,000?"
But rather:
After the breakout, is there actually capital willing to support it?
Because a truly strong breakout is never about that single candlestick that spikes up.
It's about whether the previous resistance can turn into support after the pullback.
So today I'm focusing on two levels.
On the upside, watch 86,000–87,000.
If it breaks through here again and holds above 85,000 on the pullback, then this breakout can be considered truly recognized by the market.
On the downside, watch around 84,000.
If it can't even hold here, then be cautious—
this recent breakout might just be a pump-and-dump.
The same goes for Ethereum.
After breaking through around 2,700, it has now fallen back near 2,670.
So today, don't listen to who shouts the loudest; just watch if the price can hold.
What I want to know most now is:
Is this Bitcoin breakout above 85,000 the start of a new rally, or just another chance for those chasing longs?
Tell me directly in the comments:
"Real breakout" or "fake breakout"?
Let's see who comes back tonight with the answer.👇
#大饼 #二饼 #BTC #ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Cryptocurrency contract net inflows and outflows, here are my thoughts
$BTC 24-hour contract net outflow of $719 million, $ETH $729 million; looking at longer periods, $BTC net outflows over 7, 15, and 30 days are $399 million, $2.156 billion, and $3.888 billion respectively. $ETH also saw a $2.355 billion outflow over 30 days.
The key point is that although there was a short-term inflow within 1 hour, it quickly reversed to outflow after 2 hours. This indicates that the current funds are more like short-term rebounds rather than re-establishing a trend of long positions.
My trading approach is very clear:
I am short now, not long.
Short-term rebounds can happen, but without supportive fund structure, I won’t change direction just because of a few bullish candles.
If the net outflow narrows rapidly in the next 24 hours, or even turns into a clear net inflow continuously, I will consider closing shorts or even reversing positions.
Given the current market, I’d rather miss out on the rise than stubbornly hold longs while funds continue to withdraw. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC $ETH $CT Most traders will ignore this quiet SOL setup
$SOL/USDT - LONG · Conf 95% 🟢
Trade Plan:
Entry: 119.47 – 119.61
SL: 118.96
TP1: 119.97
TP2: 120.26
TP3: 120.70
Why this setup?
- 1D trend remains bullish despite a 1.88% daily dip.
- 15m RSI at 59 leaves room before overbought pressure hits.
Debate:
Where would you place your stop on this long?
$SOL
#SOL $BTC
⚠️ Personal market analysis only. NFA - manage risk and DYOR.US JOBS DATA IS OUT — WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR ETH?
At 20:30 Beijing time on October 2, the US September employment report was released:
• Non-farm payrolls: +29K
• Unemployment rate: 4.2%
• Private-sector average hourly earnings: +0.1% MoM / +3.0% YoY
• July & August payrolls revised lower by a combined 60K
The weak job growth could reduce some pressure on interest-rate expectations and potentially improve the liquidity backdrop for crypto.
But for $ETH, the key question remains.
#DailyOrbit Brothers, tonight the short position finally got some revenge! A few days ago when I was shorting, I kept getting crushed by that manipulator every day, but today I finally got back both principal and interest! The $ZEC short position opened at 1419.09, and now the price has dropped straight to 1321.29, with an unrealized profit of 797.85U, and the ROI has reached 148.04%! That mad dog had blown me up once before, but this time I firmly held it down. Nearly 800U profit in hand, I'm so thrilled I want to slap my thigh!$BTC The US 10-year Treasury yield was previously still around 5.3%, and global bond yields remain at multi-year highs; Reuters pointed out that the US 10-year yield recently reached 5.34%, the highest in 24 years.
So the current logic for BTC is actually:
US employment weak ↓
→ Fed rate hike pressure decreases
→ Beneficial for BTC 🟢
However:
High US Treasury yields + high oil prices + geopolitical risks
→ Market worries about inflation
→ Pressure on BTC 🔴
This is also why BTC did not continue to surge directly after reaching around 87,000.
So as of today, my description of BTC remains: moderately bullish in the medium term, short-term high-level consolidation, with 87,000 as a key resistance.
I think it will break through 87 🔥BTC has returned just above 84000, ETH back to 2664, after a week of turmoil, it’s like nothing happened.
📉 Yesterday I still thought the market was going up, but once the data came out and the market digested it, it turned around immediately. Waking up to see the sharp drop really stunned me, my position suddenly approached the liquidation line.
💭 I used to think that as long as the direction was ultimately right, holding longer didn’t matter.
Now I realize this is the most dangerous mindset.
🕳️ Because the longer you hold, the easier it is to start making excuses for your position. At first, you can still cut losses, then it becomes "wait a bit longer"; later it turns into "it will definitely come back"; and finally you even start adding to your position to average down.
😵 The most ironic thing is, when you just open a position, you clearly know to exit if it’s wrong, but after holding for a few days, it’s like you become a different person.
So this time I won’t fight with myself anymore.
🛑 If I can’t hold long-term, then I won’t hold. Starting today, I’ll switch to day trading, resolving positions within the day, not leaving them to the emotions and surprises of the next day.
What do you think is the hardest thing to change in trading, the technique or your own personality? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Hahahahaha!!! I finally stood up today!!!
Both of my short positions are actually all green! And shining green! The $SNDK short made 10 points, and the ZEC short made almost 18 points!
I rubbed my eyes and pinched my thigh hard again—this is not a dream! A pure contrarian like me who "buys at the peak and shorts at the bottom" actually has a day like this???
When I opened the $SNDK short, my heart was pounding because Citibank just released a report saying storage chips will be in shortage until 2028, with a target price of 2100. Sounds scary.
But then Toshiba announced it would invest 60 billion yen to double production capacity. The market panicked, storage stocks collectively plunged, and Seagate and Western Digital both dropped over 10%.
Analysts shouted "charge, charge," but their bodies were honest, running faster than anyone! I blindly shorted in and actually got it right!
ZEC is even crazier! A giant whale just spent $66 million frantically buying, hoarding over 60 million ZEC in their wallet.
I was so scared I almost closed my position, but then I saw news that Grayscale ETF had $30 million outflow in one day, and rumors spread about hackers laundering money through privacy pools. The price crashed 21% from the high of 1698.
Big players were buying madly while others were desperately selling. I, a small retail investor, actually caught a big profit in the middle!
While this luck lasts, I quickly took a screenshot to remember it hahaha.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Exactly. Here’s how to read that ETH map:
* 🟢 ETH breaks and holds above $2,700 → watch $2,800 as the next resistance.
* 🔴 ETH breaks below $2,650 → watch $2,600 as the next support.
* 🟡 ETH stays between $2,650–$2,700 → market is in a range; a breakout confirmation is more important than entering in the middle.
* ⚠️ A wick through a level isn’t enough—watch for a candle close and follow-through.$SAND has surged hard, but the sharp move also brings higher volatility. Whale positioning shows heavy long exposure, with many longs already in profit—profit-taking could trigger a pullback.
Offensive: 0.0732
Defensive: 0.0615
Watching for a short setup. Manage risk. 📉
#NvidiaRecordHigh #NEARFundsRecovered Damn, the nonfarm payrolls tonight just exploded!
September added only 29,000 jobs, market expected 90,000, more than three times the difference.
The previous value was also revised down from 162,000.
Unemployment rate rose to 4.2%,
higher than expected, and wage growth also dropped to 3%.
All four data points missed expectations, the damn job market is really cooling off.
Job openings in August also decreased,
demand side continues to contract.
Rate cuts are now certain, hold onto BTC tonight🔥Yesterday it was still rising, but today when I opened my eyes, BTC directly dropped back to around 84000, and ETH also returned to 2664. This kind of gap is really brutal.
😰The scariest thing is not how much it fell, but that the position suddenly approached the liquidation line. At that moment my hands were shaking, and I realized that what I used to call "holding the position" was actually not faith at all, just unwillingness to admit being wrong.
🧠When I first opened the position, I was actually very clear-headed, able to go long or short, and would run if the direction was wrong. But once holding for a few days, people start to change: unwilling to leave when it rises, thinking to wait when it falls, even starting to imagine what will happen in a few days or a week.
📉Then unrealized profit turns into unrealized loss, the loss keeps expanding, and in the end I can only stare blankly at the liquidation line.
⚡This time I finally figured it out: it’s not that the market doesn’t suit me, but that long-term holding doesn’t suit me right now.
From today on, I will only do intraday trading, open and close positions the same day, never hold overnight.
Brothers, is there anyone like me who only realizes in the end that their biggest enemy is actually their own personality? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $CORE $CORE A scheme spanning seven years, carried out step by step, fooling tens of millions of people, makes anyone's spine chill.
This is no longer an ordinary "cutting leeks" scam; this is a textbook-level, systematic crime with extraordinary patience. Ordinary scammers can't pull this off; those who can are a "professional team" with high expertise, abundant resources, and deep understanding of human nature and legal boundaries.
Let's break down why they could lurk for seven years without anyone noticing?
Why after seven years are many still not seeing through it? Because they are extremely anti-human nature.
Ordinary retail crypto traders wish to buy today and double tomorrow. But the CORE project team has shown extremely cold long-termism from start to finish:
· First layer of disguise: using "free" to counter human vigilance. Airdrops in 2020, daily check-ins, watching ads. Everyone thought, "Anyway, I didn't spend money, so I can freeload." But they exchanged "free" for the most precious things: three years of time cost and tens of millions of traffic.
· Second layer of disguise: using "compliance" to counter legal risks. Withdrawal bans on Americans, whitepaper changed to English, entity registered in the Cayman Islands. This is a complete legal firewall. They don't misunderstand the law; they understand it too well, preparing from day one for their escape seven years later.
· Third layer of disguise: using "narrative" to counter price drops... [Text limit reached, continue by viewing the two images to finish] Today is the perfect day to talk about lying flat. TRX rose 0.18%, hovering around 0.3349, not exciting but also not frustrating. The market is closed for the weekend, and previously it was shaken by news of ETF net outflows, Liquid being hacked, and US Treasury yields, but ultimately, these macro and black swan events are best not meddled with. I used to get itchy hands and bet on directions mid-event, and have been slapped by two-way stop losses on both sides. Now I've learned: before major uncertainties, hold spot, no leverage, no guessing on one side, wait for the boot to drop and see the direction before moving. TRX, as a stablecoin concept with low volatility, is meant to be held passively, not gambled on. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the composure not to be washed out by noise. Sit back, watch the show, and wait for next week's opening to give the answer—no betting this round. $TRX #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $SAND decisively shorted! The bulls dominate in number, but the bears dominate in capital. In the trading market, do you count heads or chips?
The bulls number 543, the bears 232, so the bulls have an absolute advantage in headcount. But looking at actual positions, the 500+ bulls have pooled only 3.27 million U, while the bears, with less than half the number, have directly dumped 5.08 million U. Calculating per capita, bears average over 20,000 U each, which is more than three times the bullsThis wave has ended, I think $ETH can be shorted.
Bulls, don't rush to criticize me yet, calm down and look at the market. Actually, this rally is clearly at its last gasp.
Look at the daily chart, the price peaked at 2807 and then started to weaken, with several days of long upper shadows at high levels, showing bulls are obviously losing strength.
Now the price can't even hold above EMA5, and volume is visibly shrinking.
This kind of high-level stagnation is a typical sign of manipulative whales pumping to unload, while retail investors are still fantasizing about breaking 3000, unaware that the vehicle has already driven into the slaughterhouse.
Look at the long-short ratio data; currently, 64% of bulls are firmly optimistic, while only 35% are bearish.
At such a high level, the vast majority are desperately bullish, which itself is an extremely dangerous signal.
The macro news pressure is obvious, yet the market frequently fails to rise, bulls are so crowded they can hardly turn around, who will take the risk off your hands? $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% USDT is going back to Bitcoin.
Tether plans to bring USDT back to the Bitcoin network through Utexo in October, and this time it's not just a simple token issuance like before. It also includes private transfers, direct BTC/USDT swaps, and BTC-collateralized lending. TradingView
① The key point here is not "USDT supports another chain again"
The biggest problem with Bitcoin has always been straightforward:
There is a lot of money, but few things it can do.
BTC itself is suitable for store of value, but for payments, lending, and stablecoin trading, funds usually have to move to Ethereum, Tron, Solana first.
If USDT can really circulate directly on Bitcoin, this dormant BTC capital will have an additional usage path.
② What I care more about is BTC-collateralized lending
This is more interesting than just transferring USDT.
In the future, if users can directly use BTC as collateral to borrow USDT, they won’t need to wrap BTC into WBTC first, nor cross-chain out.
For many long-term BTC holders, this demand is quite real: they don’t want to sell their coins but want liquidity.
③ The private transfer aspect is also worth watching
Tether explicitly mentioned private transfers this time.
This shows that privacy demand is no longer just a story for privacy coins like ZEC and XMR; even the largest stablecoin is starting to move in this direction.
Of course, how strong the privacy capabilities are and how compliance is handled still need to be seen after Utexo officially launches.
My current judgment on this is simple:
If USDT really runs on Bitcoin, the competition behind BTC will no longer be just "digital gold."
It will start to expand into stablecoins, lending, payments, and other scenarios.
I think this is more worth following than just watching BTC’s price go up a few points today. 🔻 ETH SHORT WATCH
$ETH is still struggling beneath the $3K region, while weak ETF flows continue to weigh on momentum. Sellers may look to use another rebound as an opportunity to push price lower.
📍 Short Zone: $2,950–$3,020
🎯 TP1: $2,850
🎯 TP2: $2,780
🛑 SL: $3,080
A high-volume break below $2,850 could open the door to further downside.
If ETH decisively reclaims $3,080, this bearish setup is invalidated.
⏳ Wait for confirmation. Don’t chase the move.
#DailyOrbit #USNFPDataCools Solana's on-chain activity has hit a new high again.
On October 3rd, according to Blockworks data, Solana processed a record 14.2 billion non-voting transactions in Q3, a 45% increase from Q2.
This data is more worth noting than just looking at the SOL price alone, because non-voting transactions better reflect real on-chain activity.
The transmission logic is clear: on-chain transaction growth → increased application activity → higher fees and network demand → improved ecosystem capital and user retention → SOL fundamentals get support.
However, it should also be noted that the number of transactions itself does not equal economic value. Solana's high-frequency trading may still include a large number of bots, arbitrage, and low-value transactions, so going forward, it is necessary to also consider fee revenue, stablecoin scale, DEX trading volume, and active addresses together.
My judgment is that 14.2 billion transactions indicate Solana's network usage is still expanding. In the short term, if the SOL price also strengthens with volume, this data will be more easily interpreted by the market as a fundamental catalyst.
The key focus going forward is: while transaction volume continues to grow, can on-chain revenue and real users grow in sync? PCE and non-farm payroll data are positive, but Bitcoin can't break through, depressing~
Whales are distributing chips at high levels again, a bit risky!
They say "non-farm payroll data doesn't affect the market," but with this surprising 29,000 figure, the higher-ups clearly understand and have already prepared themselves. The truly important data will be the next inflation and employment reports.
No new money in the bag, just some shaking before it disperses!
Also, the probability of a rate hike in October isn't very high. Should we short on rallies? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC Cryptocurrency contract net inflows and outflows, here are my thoughts
$BTC 24-hour contract net outflow of $719 million, $ETH $729 million; looking at longer periods, $BTC net outflows over 7, 15, and 30 days are $399 million, $2.156 billion, and $3.888 billion respectively. $ETH also saw a $2.355 billion outflow over 30 days.
The key point is that although there is capital inflow in the short 1-hour window, it quickly turns negative after 2 hours. This indicates that the current funds are morOh my goodness, today APT really dropped, down more than 3 points in 24 hours, falling to around 0.79. Damn, it was bullish just a few days ago, but today it’s just limp and weak, I don’t get it, don’t get it. The volume on the order book suddenly shrank, like a hotpot restaurant suddenly losing all its customers. But don’t panic, bro, this kind of sudden drop is most dangerous when cutting losses at the peak. The resistance at 0.82 used to trap a lot of people; breaking through without volume will likely get you trapped. The support at 0.78 is today’s lifeline; if it breaks below that, there’s no hope. Weekend liquidity is thin, and shaky markets are easiest to be pricked by a single needle. The important thing is to let it fall as it will, hold steady and watch the show, don’t chase the peak, beware the main players smashing down and then pulling the ladder away. Stay calm, don’t panic sell. $APT #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT 🔥 $SAND is up 64% and the setup is getting wild
Price exploded from around $0.042 to $0.084, while funding crashed to an extreme -0.84%.
Smart Money is almost perfectly split: $5.18M longs vs $5.17M shorts. But longs are sitting on +$766K, while shorts are down -$319K.
👀 With funding this negative and shorts underwater, another push higher could make the squeeze even nastier.This trade, from 1.675 down to 1.517, lasted a full two days and two nights.
Return rate +236.06%. Actually, trading is like judging people—never be fooled by its “background.”
$GRAM, shining under the halo of “Durov” and the “TON ecosystem,” is like those well-packaged “pseudo blue-chip stocks” in the stock market.
Many think it has a strong background, so a drop is an opportunity. But what I see is a typical “fat but weak” constitution: 1. Good news exhausted turns into bad news: like a company releasing a seemingly good earnings report but the stock opens high and closes low. GRAM has been consolidating at a high level for too long; the so-called “support” is just a stage set by the main players to unload their shares. 2. Capital flow doesn’t lie: the market looks lively, but the buying is all from small orders. It’s like a player showing off luxury cars on social media (pumping the price), but can’t even afford gas privately (lack of real buying power). 3. Emotional ebb: when everyone is praising its “technical vision,” it’s often the eve of a bubble burst. My 25x leverage on this trade wasn’t gambling; I saw through its “strong outside, weak inside” nature.
In this market, only the red numbers in your account won’t play tricks on you. Brothers, how do you see through coins that wear a “golden body” but do “cutting leeks” schemes?
Let’s talk in the comments, with pictures!On October 2nd, that is yesterday, the US platform Kalshi officially launched Dogecoin perpetual contracts, fully regulated by the CFTC.
Consider the weight of these words: CFTC regulation. Previously, when we traded contracts, the platforms were overseas, and if something went wrong, there was nowhere to cry. Now, in a contract market stamped by the US federal regulatory agency, Dogecoin has its own dedicated contract. Coins that can enter this market can be counted on one hand across the entire market.
When I saw this news at noon while eating Lanzhou hand-pulled noodles, I was so excited I ate half a bowl more. What does this mean? It means that legitimate US institutional funds can now openly go long or short Dogecoin, with a direct channel paved right to Wall Street’s doorstep.
Of course, on the first day, 54% of positions were short, which just made me laugh. Shorting is good; it’s all fuel for the future. Back when spot ETFs were approved, everyone was bearish too, and then?
The door opened, people came in, and the rest is up to time. $DOGE $BTC $ETH $DOGE #OKXNOW: The future is here, major announcements are unfolding #Tensions between the US and Iran continue, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves #Earnings Watch: Micron raises guidance, storage demand continues to strengthen $BTC has lost pricing power on the news front. How should we grasp the market direction?
I've been saying all along that various news no longer affects the crypto market trend. Despite all the negative news, prices keep rising, indicating that pricing power has shifted from the news to the capital.
Reviewing the recent trend, the price has been very strong, basically rising against the trend amid various negative news, and the rise has been quite outrageous.
Short-term players haven't come to their senses yet. At the current price, retail investors are more willing to short rather than believe that a bull market has truly arrived.
Negative news keeps coming, retail FOMO sentiment can't be stirred up, and institutions are all as sharp as monkeys.
Whales hold large amounts of coins, and the bulls around them are all profit-taking positions, which makes selling a big problem because even a slight move could cause a large number of profit-taking positions to run.
Finally, last night we got some good news, and funds poured in, so institutions started selling on the news.
This explains the surge and pullback in last night's market.
The current price is still within a long-term uptrend structure! But the risk of a short-term pullback is very high.
Support is at 82800 below.
It depends on whether it can hold. If it doesn't, the probability of further price decline is high.
In the short term, the probability of a continued big rise is relatively small. BTC 84,637｜ETH 2,677｜SOL 119.47｜XRP 1.49｜ZEC 1,320. Viewing these five coins on the same screen, their roles are very clear: BTC is the anchor, if it can't break through 85K, altcoins won't take off; ETH stuck at 2,677 is just a follower with no independent momentum; SOL at 119 still has some elasticity but weak volume; XRP at 1.49 is locked by institutional chips and remains static; ZEC at 1,320 is the weakest today, with profit-taking on privacy narrative. An unusual detail is that today's gainers are not the mainstream but fringe tokens like WLD and PYTH, indicating funds are looking to catch up at lower levels rather than chasing highs. Key points to watch: BTC staying above 82K keeps the overall market safe, breaking below will downgrade the whole market; if ZEC falls below 1,280, don't catch the fall, distribution is ongoing. This weekend, these five brothers will likely continue sideways, waiting for next week's data to give direction. Role summary in one sentence: BTC sets the direction, altcoins follow its lead. $BTC #BTC财库优先股融资升温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $PONS planned to buy the dip yesterday but accidentally hit the stop loss. The conditional order was set only with a stop loss and forgot to set a take profit. However, looking at today, discipline is a must. Currently, after the sharp drop, there is no volume-driven V-shaped reversal; instead, it is oscillating narrowly at a low level. This kind of movement is the most confidence-draining for bulls. If it lasts long, the market is very likely to trigger the next liquidation crash, waiting to retest the bottom or break out with volume again.$SOL
The amplitude is large, so why doesn't it equal high returns?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 117.13—123.79, with a trading volume of about 126 million USDT.
The intraday high-low difference is obvious, yet it remains below the window starting point. The two-way fluctuation increases the risk of making a correct judgment but entering at a poor position.
I will observe whether the volume subsequently breaks through 123.79 and holds on the pullback; if such a structure appears, it will increase the judgment of continuation. The opposing risk is insufficient support and failed rebound; if it breaks below 117.13 and the rebound cannot recover, the judgment will be downgraded. The above boundaries come from the morning window, and subsequent market changes need to be rechecked.$ZEC's current pullback is much weaker than $BTC and $ETH, with its resilience coming from ETF capital inflows and shielded pool lockups. Going forward, it is possible that funds will continue to divert to ZEC, the privacy sector will accelerate differentiation, and ZEC will have a compliance advantage due to optional disclosure; however, if the $1233 support breaks, short-term risks remain. Overall, ZEC is shifting toward a privacy-oriented store of value asset, potentially continuing to diverge from mainstream coins.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🔥This early morning move of BTC is quite interesting: after dropping to 83884, the bears suddenly lost momentum!
📉 The price quickly dipped but did not continue to expand downward; instead, it recovered to around 84545. For short-term trading, this "unable to fall further" state is more worth watching than a simple rise.
🔍 On the 15-minute chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are gradually converging, indicating that the previous downtrend is slowing, and the market is compressing volatility, waiting to choose a direction.
💡 If volume breaks through 84600 and holds, this bottom test may be further confirmed; but if 84000 is broken again, it means the bulls' support is still not strong enough.
🛑 So there is no need to rush to guess the top or bottom now; the key levels will naturally provide answers.
⚡ Real opportunities often do not appear at the most hectic times but when the direction is about to be chosen.
Do you think BTC will first surge to 84600 or first retest 84000? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备