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Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000; will the Fed still raise rates in October?
September nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000, below the expected 90,000, with the previous two months revised down by a total of 60,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The numbers look bad, but what's more worth pondering is the structure.
Companies are neither laying off nor hiring, indicating a clear cooling in the job market; white-collar jobs in finance and other sectors continue to decline, while construction and manufacturing jobs have actually increased. What AI might be bringing is not simply job elimination, but a redirection of money from white-collar roles back to power, equipment, manufacturing, and computing power.
Once the data was released, short-term US Treasury yields fell, and the market's pricing for an October rate hike quickly cooled, with the probability of no action rising to about 85% at one point. Inflation remains the biggest concern, so it's not a 100% certainty that there will be no hike.
I lean toward no rate hike in October; employment is already acting as a brake for the Fed. $BTC $ETHGood morning $BTC, it's the third day of the holiday, and the market has made a sudden reversal. The current price is 84,453, down 1.02% in 24 hours. Last night it peaked at 87,238, but then plunged back to 83,884 in the middle of the night, and this morning it barely climbed back near 84,400. From the high point, it has dropped nearly 3,400 dollars, and those who chased the high yesterday are probably buried.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the short-term structure has already deteriorated. The three moving averages MA5 (84,503), MA10 (84,635), and MA20 (85,441) have all turned downward. The price has fallen below all short-term moving averages and was only supported near the lower Bollinger Band (83,707). That big bearish candle from 87,238 last night directly broke apart the previous bullish alignment. Now the price is moving between the middle and lower bands, with the upper band at 87,175 becoming short-term resistance, making recovery difficult.
This sharp drop last night was essentially profit-taking after a rally. BTC rose from 83,500 to 87,238, gaining nearly 4,000 dollars. The short-term chips accumulated too quickly, so any slight disturbance triggered a sell-off. Additionally, after the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market's expectations for further rate hikes have not been completely eliminated, leaving bulls lacking confidence.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC $ZEC $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Last night I crashed at 9:30, already dreaming about getting liquidated. 😭
I woke up scared to even check my phone—then saw my $ETH position was still alive and the account had climbed to $235. 😂
That NFP move looked more like a short-term emotion spike than a real trend shift. Sometimes the best trading strategy is simply sleeping through the noise.
$BTC $ETH
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows
#SECCryptoCustodyRules $SAND Since I entered at 0.067 last night, looking at the long-short ratio, I already knew that the top accounts' long-short ratio was positive, the top net positions' long-short ratio was also positive, only the retail investors' long-short ratio was negative, and the funding rate was still extremely negative. With just these four simple data points, I wonder how anyone still dares to short 😂. It had already dropped to 0.058 last night, and even with a position at -300%, I didn't close it. It's not about resisting the position but the data gives me confidence. A large number of shorts below are trapped, and there are hardly any long retail investors, so a crash is basically impossible.
Therefore, in this market, getting the direction right is just the beginning; being able to wait for the logic to play out is the real hard truth.🔷 $BTC broke through the sell wall at $85.5k
• October 2 BTC: $86,913 (highest point since September 23)
• Glassnode: After a week of testing, the sell wall at $85k-$85.5k was broken
• Sell orders above the current price have been canceled
• Up +14.6% from the low of $74,968 (September 15)
• BTC market dominance: about 60%
• 24-hour liquidation volume: $333M ($244M shorts)
• QCP: resistance at $87,400, then $90,000
• Support level: $82,500
🧠 The sell wall has been broken. Seller liquidity is decreasing. But ETF inflows are declining after hitting a record
❓ Will it rise to $90k?👇$BTC $ETH $NEAR #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 Single Coin Transaction Linkage｜Last 15 Minutes
$BTC spot active transactions turned in the final segment: overall spot/futures active buy-in at 71.8%/20.4%; spot in the final segment at 36.3%. Both sides leaned towards selling in the final segment, and the transaction divergence throughout did not continue to the end of the window.Brothers, look at the chart and speak! A classic ETH 2-hour wave analysis chart, directly breaking down the main force's "harvest script":
1. Consolidation shakeout (W-X):
The left side dropped to point (A), then formed a frustrating triangular consolidation (A-B-C-D-E). This is the main force shaking out retail traders, consuming their patience, with an extremely unclear direction.
2. Deadly bull trap (Wave Y):
The most ruthless step is here! The price falsely breaks through the green zone, surging near 2778 ((Y) and (B)). Retail traders see "breakthrough, bull market returning fast" and immediately chase longs. Wrong! This is purely a bull trap! The main force tricks the last wave of retail traders to get on board, preparing to close the net.
3. Bloody crash (Wave C):
The chart predicts very directly, after the false breakout, a large bearish candle smashes the market, starting the ultimate Wave (C) crash. As for the target, focus on the strong support area 2580-2550. The upper 2716 has become strong resistance.
💡 KOL operation advice:
· Spot traders: Hold your hands, don’t bottom fish now! Around 2500 is the golden pit.
· Contract traders: A rebound to 2716-2730 is an excellent shorting opportunity, stop loss at 2778, target first at 2600. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $ETH price is approaching the intraday high. Is Ethereum driven by spot demand this time or short-term rotation?
OKX ETH/USDT spot 24-hour range is about 2,673—2,722, with a trading volume of approximately 337 million USDT. The price returning to the upper range indicates improved buying interest, but the medium-term value still depends on whether on-chain activity, fees, and staking demand strengthen simultaneously; price increase alone cannot prove network revenue improvement.
If the 1-hour chart shows a volume breakout above 2,722 and holds after a pullback, I would raise my confidence in the continuation of the recovery. If it falls back below 2,673 and network fees and activity do not keep up, be cautious that this might just be funds rotating among major coins.$BTC Nonfarm payroll night, a typical case of good news fully priced in, the market immediately reversed to harvest.
The nonfarm data came out with only 29,000 new jobs added, far below the market estimate of 90,000. Last month's data was also revised downward, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Looking at the data alone, it should be positive for the market, but the market first rallied to lure buyers, then quickly dropped.
The Nasdaq QQQ broke through 746 to reach 754, a record high, but couldn't hold the high level and retreated to test 740. If 740 doesn't hold, this strong rally will be in question; only if it holds is there a chance to push higher again.
BTC followed a familiar pattern: after the data release, it quickly rose from 86,000 to 87,200, many rushed to chase longs, but selling pressure came immediately, causing a plunge down to 85,500. Short-term moving averages all turned down, indicating weakness in the short term. The next key support is at 84,200.
Ethereum slowly rose to 2,777 during the day, but after all the good news was digested, a large bearish candle wiped out all gains, dropping to around 2,700, with strong bearish pressure. If 2,700 doesn't hold, it will test 2,640. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The nonfarm payrolls report for September in the US showed an increase of only 29,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%.
The nonfarm payrolls figure seriously deviated from expectations and was extremely bearish for the US dollar.
Although it continues to reduce expectations for interest rate hikes, the figure being far below expectations has instead caused the market to worry about the potential impact of an economic recession.
After a slight rally, the market consolidated, possibly because the bullish trend had already been priced in over the past two days.
If macroeconomic factors do not lead to a market breakout, then be cautious of a trend where efforts yield no results.Non-farm payrolls released, market divergence is very obvious!
ZEC fell 5.82%, DOGE weakened along with it, while SK Hynix showed strong resistance, only dropping 0.17%.
$DOGE｜0.09249, -2.77%
Sentiment indicator, continued to decline after non-farm, already close to support. This can only be a small position gamble, the risk of breaking the level is high.
$ZEC｜1292.41, -5.82%
Previously strong coin, selling pressure emerged, just stuck at a key support level; if it can't hold, the downside space will open.
$SKHYNIX SK Hynix｜1372.7, -0.17%
Physical chip mapped asset, strong resistance to decline, mainly follows the semiconductor cycle.
👉 In this kind of divergent market, do you choose to wait and see or try a small position?
Personal review only, does not constitute any investment advice
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ZEC $SOL This fake breakout is honestly brutal.
I was sitting on nearly 300% profit at the peak, and then the whole move got wiped out by that nasty reversal. Now it’s still pulling back, and the chart just keeps looking weaker.
Crypto really knows how to turn a winning trade into a lesson in seconds. 😮💨📉
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge Judging chip concentration by only focusing on the top ten addresses can be misleading.
The top 10 DOGE addresses hold about 45% of the circulating supply, a striking figure, but when broken down, these include custodial wallets from platforms like Robinhood and Binance—at least 16% of DOGE is held in exchange addresses that can be tagged on-chain. Behind one cold wallet are the positions of hundreds of thousands of retail investors; concentrated on-chain holdings do not equal concentrated actual control.
There is another layer beneath the surface. About 8.1 million addresses hold DOGE on-chain; excluding the top thousand, over 8 million addresses collectively hold about 17% of the chips, mostly small positions ranging from 1 to 1000 coins. The low unit price, tipping culture, and payment scenarios have gradually distributed chips into retail hands, weaving a "shrimp swarm" base that BTC does not have.
Looking at BTC: the top 100 addresses only account for about 15% of the supply, which seems dispersed, but addresses holding over 100 coins collectively lock about 61% of the chips. This includes Satoshi Nakamoto’s dormant millions, ETF custodial addresses, and exchange cold wallets, many of which are controlled by single entities or institutions.
Of course, addresses do not equal people, and custodial wallets contain mixed holdings on both ends. The Gini coefficient weighted by address count only provides one perspective. The statement "$DOGE is more distributed than $BTC" cannot be definitively concluded, but the fact that chips are sinking into retail hands is supported by on-chain data. Yesterday SanDisk went up to 1800 and then dropped back down. Is it because Toshiba in Japan is expanding production? Then Seagate and Western Digital both fell more than 10 points, but can a factory be built well in just 1.2 years of expansion? Storage shortages will persist, and Toshiba and SanDisk don't even produce the same products. It feels a bit like an overreaction, so I'll adjust my position and check back in a few days.I’m still watching the bigger picture on $BTC.
The 85K sell wall reportedly got absorbed, while BTC bounced back after dipping near 85.2K.
$ETH also pulled back from 2,777 to around 2,690.
For me, this looks more like a liquidity shakeout than a confirmed trend reversal. I’m staying patient with core positions and watching whether 85K turns into support.
NFA.
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge 🔷 $BTC to $87k, liquidations $120M
• BTC reached $86,857 (highest since September 23)
• Glassnode: $85k sell wall overcome
• Shorts liquidations in 24h: $122M
• Total crypto market: $210M liquidations
• $86k — breakeven zone for ETF investors
• October 1 ETF inflow: $102.7M (down from record $999M)
• BlackRock IBIT: +$195M
• CoinGlass: liquidation cluster above $87k
🧠 $85k wall broken, shorts liquidated for $122M. But ETF inflows are decreasing
❓ Will it confirm the trend?👇$BTC is currently the focal point of capital flow. If the price rises along with stable volume and OI, buying pressure may be consolidating; conversely, if the price rises but OI expands rapidly, it could signal overheated leverage. For $ETH, observe its ability to maintain momentum after BTC. $SOL and $XRP should only increase their weight when capital flow clearly spreads. Trump and crypto policy in the US could become catalysts, but trading orders still need to be based on price, volume, OI, and invalidation points. Prioritize confirmation first, then scale up positions.Transaction simulation shows success but still cannot guarantee the on-chain result will be exactly the same.
Wallet simulation pre-executes transactions based on the current chain state, indicating possible asset changes, authorizations, and errors. It is an important tool to reduce blind signing. However, between simulation and actual packaging, prices, balances, nonces, and contract states may change, especially during congestion or complex DeFi operations, so the final result may differ from the preview. Malicious contracts may also alter behavior based on the calling environment, block information, or specific conditions. Simulation can detect many obvious risks but should not be considered absolute proof of safety. For $ETH users, pay attention to minimum output, authorization limits, receiving addresses, and unknown contract calls during preview, and verify events and balances after on-chain execution. High-value operations can first be verified with small amounts, but small-amount success does not guarantee the same outcome for large amounts under different states. Simulation is a strong line of defense, provided you understand it validates a path at a certain moment, not a promise of the future.
The simulator itself relies on RPC and parsing rules and may miss complex calls. Multiple tools giving the same conclusion can increase confidence, but the final decision rests with the signer. High-value operations should also be verified with small amounts to confirm actual asset changes first.🌐 Solana banking/stablecoins — Fiserv launched Roughrider Coin on Solana, giving more than 90 North Dakota banks and credit unions a dollar-settlement route. $ETH quickly fell back from the high near 2777.7, with a decline of -1.51%. This indicates very strong short selling pressure in the 2770-2800 range, a typical "rally and fall" pattern.
First support: 2647
Strong support: 2626
First resistance: 2700
Strong resistance: 2777-2806.
The short-term trend is weak, with rebounds being resisted and falling back, and bearish momentum is releasing. You can wait for the price to slightly rebound near 2700 to confirm resistance before entering a short position. Set stop loss above 2735. The first target is 2647; if broken, look toward around 2626.
$BTC price also experienced a sharp pullback after testing the high of 87239, currently fluctuating near 84611. It is worth noting that although the price has slightly declined, net inflow is positive, indicating that funds are still absorbing at the bottom during the decline, providing some buying support below.
First support: 83841
Strong support: around 83000
First resistance: 85000
Strong resistance: 87239 - 87385.
Currently in a correction and recovery phase after a big rise, with funds flowing in, blind shorting is not advisable. Wait for the price to stabilize in the 83800 - 84000 range before attempting light long positions, with stop loss at 83500 and target at 86000.
For reference only #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 10.3 Bitcoin Silk Road
ETH initially surged to 2778 but faced heavy resistance and sharply dropped, hitting a low of 2649.27 where it touched the lower Bollinger Band and then stabilized to rebound. The current price is 2681.47, recovering from the low and standing just below the middle Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Bands are contracting after expansion, indicating a corrective rebound after a major drop. Resistance above is at 2716 and previous high at 2778; key support below is at 2649.
$ETH #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
Entry range: 2670–2678, enter again after a pullback stabilizes and the candlestick shows a stop in the decline signal
Stop loss: below 2645, breaking this round's low point, breaking the rebound structure, exit
Take profit:
First target: 2716, reduce half the position to lock in some profit
Second target: 2750, play the remaining position against the upper resistance$XAU Gold has been quite the "drama queen" this week. On the night of October 2nd's non-farm payroll release, after the data shocked the market, gold prices instantly surged to $4226, then quickly plunged over $100 to $4124, with bulls and bears both wishing each other "take care."
Poor folks like you and me, we didn’t sell at the highs, and we keep losing money while having to pay funding fees nonstop. Sigh, the funding fees alone could pay for a hotpot meal.
Currently, gold is catching its breath around $4150-$4170. The $4135-$4146 range below acts as a short-term "safety cushion," and $4000 is a strong bottom; above, $4200-$4230 is the main short-term resistance zone.
In the medium to long term, central banks’ enthusiasm for buying gold remains strong. Goldman Sachs maintains a $5400 target by the end of 2027; however, HSBC has lowered its expectations, believing that rate hikes and high oil prices will continue to exert short-term pressure. In the short term, watch the aftereffects of the non-farm data; in the mid-term, wait for the wind.
The long-term outlook is still bullish, but these funding fees really hurt.
$BTC $ETH Bitcoin and Ethereum remain bullish in the long run, though short-term corrections are needed. The strategy is still to buy the dip, not chase highs, and to avoid shorting even if bearish. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 This short position on ZEC is finally closed completely 😮💨 Opened short at 1468.66, fully closed at 1379.6, held for almost 11 days, single contract realized a return of +306.69%.
From start to finish, I wasn’t betting that “privacy coins have no future.” On the contrary, it’s precisely because ZEC’s story has been so smooth lately: ETF, privacy narrative, protocol upgrades, institutional funds—almost all the positive factors came together. By mid-September, ZEC had already risen 168% in a month, and ZCSH’s cumulative inflow exceeded $233 million in less than a month since listing. There’s no doubt there were many good news, but when the price rises faster than the good news can be digested, I prefer to guard against some expected pullback.
The subsequent trend is also quite interesting. ZEC once surged to around $1698, but by October 1, it had retraced about 21% from the high. Meanwhile, ZCSH saw a net outflow of about $30.25 million on September 30. At least this shows that the funds chasing in earlier are not always one-way in.
My own understanding is: the hotter a sector is, the real danger is often not that the story suddenly turns bad, but that everyone starts realizing the good story has already been fully priced in. Zcash doesn’t need to have any major issues; as long as the later buying is not as aggressive as before, the price can ease on its own.
Of course, since I ended up profiting this time, I can’t pretend the period when it rose above 1580 didn’t happen. The unrealized loss was ugly then, and I also doubted whether the short was opened too early.$ETH, what are you doing—trying to squeeze every short? 😅
NFP dropped, but ETH is still hovering around 2,750 instead of giving bears the pullback they wanted.
Shorting near 2,700 already looked risky after that afternoon pump.
I’m staying patient and watching the next move.
#交易之声
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge The leader has something to say
The SEC issued a new custody regulation, but many people are only focused on the non-farm payrolls and have overlooked this.
I believe this has more long-term significance than the non-farm data. The basis is that the new regulation proposes to allow registered investment advisors to self-custody clients' crypto assets under conditions of security measures, insurance, and independent audits. At the same time, qualified state-chartered trust companies can also act as custodians.
Previously, institutions wanting to compliantly custody BTC faced very complicated procedures. Now the threshold is lowered, and the custody path is being streamlined. Custody is the last barrier for institutions to enter the market; once this step is cleared, the operational risk of institutions allocating crypto assets will decrease. This is a medium-term positive, not a short-term catalyst.
But don't expect it to pump the market. The rule is still in the proposal stage, and after publication in the Federal Register, there will be a 60-day comment period, so it's still early to be implemented. Long-term US Treasury yields are above 5.6%, and macro pressures remain. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制
Yesterday, I took long positions on Bitcoin at 86000 and opened a short at 86500. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. The new custody regulation does not change my short-term rhythm; non-farm payrolls and interest rate expectations are the short-term directions.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set your stop loss. Good luck.$ETH went from +90U unrealized profit to -40U. 😵
I was waiting for 2,780, but it topped at 2,777 and reversed hard.
The macro data looked supportive, yet crypto chose deleveraging over logic.
One trade, one lesson: the market doesn’t owe us the breakout.
#USNFPDataCools
#G7OilReserveRelease
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge Let's take a look at the Ethereum section. After the rise, there was a drop, which highlights the importance of taking profits. The view on Ethereum remains unchanged, and the price levels are the same. Ethereum price levels: ▸ Around 2,780: open short positions; no separate stop loss is given for shorts, please manage your own risk. ▸ Around 2,650: light buying. ▸ 2,600: add to long positions. ▸ Break below 2,400: stop loss for long positions. First, let's look at the day's path (Taiwan time, OKX perpetual): Yesterday afternoon it once surged to 2,777.7, just about two points shy of 2,780; after 10 PM it fell back along with Bitcoin, hitting a low of 2,646.9 during the 2 AM hour, touching the 2,650 area we mentioned but not reaching 2,600. Afterwards, it gradually rose between 2,656 and 2,680, around 2,679 at the time of the screenshot. So within one day, Ethereum approached 2,780 on the upside and also touched 2,650 on the downside, effectively testing both price levels. The price levels remain unchanged: upper boundary 2,780 for shorting, lower boundary 2,650 for light buying, 2,600 for adding longs, and exit longs if it breaks below 2,400. Technically, looking at the 1-hour chart: the upper red zone is roughly between 2,745 and 2,785, with a red mark at 2,769.00 and a Weak High label near the upper boundary. There is a line at 2,691.47 in the middle, and the current price is just below it. Below is blueBig Brother Maji's trading these past few days has been absolutely masterful! He always seems to perfectly take profit at the top and has the guts to buy back at the bottom. His total position size keeps swinging between $141 million and $165 million, and this rhythm of adding and reducing is really worth studying. Let's review his moves. *$BTC — The Perfect High and Low Game* He started with 536 coins holding a small loss. Then he decisively cut down to 369 coins and successfully exited at the 🎮 Saturday noon, three "off-track" coins are quietly rising
$DOGE 0.09717, up 3.02%, just 3% away from 0.1. Meme is an emotion amplifier; after the non-farm payroll surprise, retail investors went wild. Liquidity is thin around 0.097 on weekends, if Bitcoin doesn't drop, hitting 0.1 on Monday is quite possible. But don't be greedy if it breaks 0.1, meme coins rise fast and fall fast too.
$TRUMP 2.191, up 7.19%, the wildest policy coin tonight. It hovered around 2.1 for a week without breaking through, but after the non-farm surprise, it shot up directly to 2.19. But don't chase a coin that jumps 7%—historically, when it rises 7%, it usually gives back half the next day, and a small sell order over the weekend can drop it 3%. Just watch.
$BOME 0.0010406, up 7.54%, the lunatic among small coins. Its market cap is just tens of millions; when the market surges, a few people can pump it 7%. But this kind of rise has no fundamentals, purely emotional trading. Chasing this coin on Saturday noon might mean waking up buried on Sunday.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Three "off-track" coins: DOGE close to 0.1, don't chase TRUMP, just watch BOME. Meme is the most hyped but also the most dangerous on weekends.NEAR Protocol $NEAR: Current price is about $4.7. The ETF has just been listed for three days, with Bitwise NRR cumulative net inflow of about $52.8 million. However, on October 1, NEAR Intents suffered a $3.8 million hacker attack, causing the price to drop from 5.34 to 4.74. The good news is that the vulnerability has been fixed and full compensation promised. The $4.74 low held, and institutions only entered with 0.8%. There is still significant room ahead, but short-term confidence needs time to recover.
Dogecoin $DOGE: Stuck at the $0.10 resistance level, with the 7-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages all squeezed between 0.09 and 0.10. The market feels like a compressed spring. Retail and institutional bulls account for 72% and 78% respectively, with very crowded positions. The $0.10 mark is a critical line: a breakout could target 0.12, failure to break may cause a crash to 0.085-0.09.
Filecoin $FIL: Current price is about $1.05. October 15 will be the most important day for FIL this year — the six-year lock-up period for Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation ends, and the annual new supply will drop sharply from about 88.4 million to about 22 million, a 75% decrease. This means the biggest source of selling pressure each year will disappear, significantly tightening supply. However, note: this does not mean the price will rise on that day; the effect will gradually show over the following months.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 The non-farm payrolls are clearly positive, yet the market is moving downward; this contrast is really worth keeping an eye on. Do you also feel that awkwardness of "the data is fine, but the price doesn't agree"? Friday's data appeared optimistic on the surface, but BTC and ETH just couldn't get going. The previous highs weren't broken, and they continue to oscillate between 82,000 and 87,000. The daytime already priced in expectations, so the evening will most likely be sideways to weak. With the midterm elections approaching and policy tone still tight, risk appetite hasn't truly opened up. But the really interesting part is ETH. Today, open interest surged by 200 million, with funds starting to position from 8 AM, and large transactions appearing at high levels at noon and 4 PM. Even with some pullbacks, the main players haven't withdrawn. Looking at the candlestick positions, the chips are basically stacked at high levels; buy orders around 2,670 are firmly held, current price is 2,748, and there aren't many sell orders above. What does this indicate? The funds actually acknowledge some downward space but have left themselves a margin of error. The main cost zone is around 2,750, but they don't expect a deep drop, so a lot of support is buried around 2,670. If there is a real rally tonight, this heavy position batch might be judged wrong. Conversely, if the large buy orders below withdraw and no one takes over, the price will still slide down. Regarding sector strength, neither BTC nor ETH shows leadership in gains, and altcoins are even less so; capital preference isn't spreading but rather contracting. The bullish logic is: high-level chips aren't dispersed, indicating some are unwilling to give up future space. The bearish risk is: expectations are too full, and once support withdraws, the correction will be swift. Next, I will focus on$BTC has a very intuitive proof that the low-priced chips and pricing power of BTC are rapidly flowing out of the crypto circle to ETFs and institutions:
The chart below shows the cumulative net inflow/outflow data of BTC ETFs starting from January 11, 2024:
Currently, the historical cumulative net inflow is +$57.7 billion, and the price is 84,500
The last time the cumulative net inflow reached +$57.7 billion was on September 30, 2025, when BTC's price was 115,000
The cumulative net inflow of ETFs is the same, but the price is 27% lower, indicating that many spot chips in the crypto circle have been bought by ETFs.
The cumulative net inflow of ETFs has also started a new round of growth since the MSTR coin selling incident, and it is less than 10% away from the cumulative fund amount's new high,
Another interesting event is that the highest point of BTC ETF cumulative net inflow was on October 10, 2025, with a price of 122,500 and a cumulative net inflow of +$62.7 billion. After the 1011 incident, funds began to flee ETFs, turning inflows directly into outflows.
It inevitably makes one wonder, if the 1011 black swan had not appeared in a parallel universe, would the last BTC cycle have reached 150,000? 180,000? 200,000?
But we just don't know.2660 broke, don't follow the old habit this time
The 2660 line, the price has been sticking to it for more than a week. It has been tested countless times, broken a few times in between, but each time it was recovered. People got used to buying on the dip.
Don't follow the old habit this time.
The previous breaks were caused by low volume grinding, and after grinding, it went back by itself. This time it was smashed down: nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the US stock market opened directly on the recession side. Chips are also changing hands, 135 million positions were cleared, big players closed their short positions, and retail investors took over.
Don't apply the old habit of "it always recovers after breaking" to this time.
Last night it was smashed from 2768 down to 2647, just hitting the 4H lower band, dropping 4.4%. Now it's bouncing on the line. To be clear, it’s still the same as before, breaking and then recovering. But recovering doesn’t mean it’s stable; we’ll watch this all day today.
The short term is oversold, so a bounce is normal. But a bounce doesn’t mean recovery. If it can’t recover, this line will turn from the floor underfoot into the ceiling above. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 NFP triggered panic, but I’m still taking the long side.
$BTC around 84.6K, $ETH near 2.67K. Everyone is shouting “recession,” while I’m watching for a possible shakeout.
Plan: scale into longs around 84K BTC / 2.65K ETH.
Defense: 82.5K / 2.6K.
If support holds, I’m looking for 88K BTC and 3K ETH.
High risk, small margin for error. NFA.
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows
#AnthropicEyesNovIPO #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 Nonfarm payrolls have landed, let's discuss a few trading directions I'm watching. First, a data review: September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, expected 84,000; unemployment rate 4.2%, expected 4.1%; previous value was revised down by 60,000. This set of data has a "two-way" impact on the market — short-term positive for risk assets, but medium-term reveals concerns about economic weakening. Direction one: Bitcoin. After the data, BTC surged to $87,000 at one point, with an intraday gain of over 3%. Previously, BTC was consolidating between 82,500 and 85,700 for a week, now it has broken through the upper boundary of that range. Personally, I think if it can pull back and stabilize near 85,000, it is a reference worth watching for entry. The upper focus is on the $90,000 round number. Direction two: Gold. Gold also rose after the nonfarm data, with New York gold contracts up about 1% to $4,250 per ounce. But gold faces a contradiction: easing rate hike expectations are positive for gold, but US Treasury yields remain above 5%, putting pressure on non-yielding assets. Some analysts mention that if US Treasury yields fall from high levels combined with weaker-than-expected nonfarm data, gold may see a pulse-like rebound. Short-term focus is on the 4,200-4,250 range for offense and defense. Direction three: US stocks. The three major indices collectively rose on Friday, Dow up 0.63%, S&P up 0.87%, Nasdaq up 1.21%. Nvidia rose 2.Last night's market action probably caught some people off guard again.
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings dropped to 3%. The employment data for the previous two months was also revised down by a total of 60,000. The signs of cooling in the job market are indeed quite clear.
Logically, a cooling job market would lead the market to reprice expectations for the Fed to slow tightening, and $BTC did indeed surge to around 87,300 at one point. But the subsequent pullback was also quite severe, with the highest in the screenshot at 87,239, the lowest hitting 83,123, and now a rebound to around 84,500.
This is what I find worth pondering: a positive macro outlook does not mean the price will only go up without falling.
Earlier, I opened a short at 83,400, thinking there was resistance above, but BTC directly rallied upward, and my trading logic was slapped in the face for a while. Looking back now, macro data can only provide directional clues; what really determines whether this trade can be made depends on how the price moves.
Currently, I am focusing on two levels: whether it can hold above around 85,500 on the upside, and whether the 83,100 level on the downside will be tested again. If the rebound cannot hold back above, it indicates selling pressure may not be over; if it holds and continues with volume, we cannot just assume it will keep falling because it dropped sharply before. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $LIT surged into CoinGecko's hot search, only up 5.241%: I'm bullish
$LIT surged into CoinGecko's hot search, current price 0.743, 24h up 5.241%, I'm directly bullish.
30-day range position 0.218, 7d -12.07%, the first dip bottom wave is not a peak chase.
Long-short account ratio 0.8038, more shorts, short squeeze fuel ready.
BTC 84663.21, 30-day range position 0.78, funds in the offensive phase are looking for low-level catch-up targets.
To be fair, 24h volume 799655 USDT, volume ratio only 0.049, low volume rise without backup; funding rate 5e-05 neutral, OI 17,015,286.50 down -0.94% from record, leverage not on the table.
Resistance above: 0.752/0.755/0.758
Support below: 0.74/0.724
Watershed: 0.755, above it look to 0.758, fall back means false breakout
Conclusion: Low-level hot search + offensive phase, I take the lead to be bullish. Enter directly at 0.743, stop loss if below 0.724, hold above 0.755 to reach 0.758.
Watching the market, follow me, signals coming soon.
$LIT $BTCAround 84K is deciding whether $BTC is consolidating within a range or facing a failed breakout. Kraken's public market data shows $BTC around 84.63K, with a 24-hour range of approximately 83.86K–87.23K; the price is close to the upper boundary of the range but has not yet completed a valid breakout. What really matters is not a momentary spike but whether it can close firmly above and hold on a pullback.
Bitcoin expert Feng's public view still leans toward "bullish mid-term as long as support holds," but I don't take the target price as a reason to enter. My judgment criteria are simple: only a volume-backed close above 87.23K counts as a confirmed breakout; if it spikes up but then falls back below 84K, especially losing 83.86K, I will treat this breakout attempt as false.
Chasing orders in the middle of the range is not cost-effective. I will wait for a close confirmation or a pullback with support before deciding whether to follow, controlling position size after the invalidation level is clear. Are you more focused on the close breakout above 87.23K or the pullback support near 84K? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.The bulls say: The support level at 84000 has held, the trend is bullish, so we should go long. The bears say: The resistance at 85000 is right ahead; if it can't break through, it will fall, so we should go short. BTC current price is 84623.0, exactly in the middle. Losing 200,000 U trying to recover, when both bulls and bears have valid points, I choose not to take sides and wait for the price to show direction before following. If it breaks through 85000 and the pullback doesn't break it, go long; if it falls below 84000 and the rebound fails, go short. Open a position with 5000 U, stop loss at 83900, never hold a position without a stop loss. Trading is not a debate; you don't need to have an opinion every time. If unsure, just wait. $BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 BTC and ETH spot ETFs are experiencing simultaneous net outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm. This does not mean the market will immediately reverse, but it indicates that institutional incremental funds are less active than before. ETFs used to be an important source of funds; now with simultaneous outflows, short-term risk appetite is under pressure.
The key is not the single-day outflow, but whether it can continue and how prices react. If it is just a short-term outflow, BTC can still oscillate at high levels, indicating spot support, and some funds may just be reallocating.
Be cautious of continuous ETF net outflows, BTC breaking key support, ETH consistently underperforming BTC, and contract leverage not significantly decreasing. If these occur simultaneously, fund withdrawal and leverage clearing may resonate, amplifying volatility.
The observation sequence can be viewed as follows: ETF flows → US Treasury yields and the dollar → BTC spot support → ETH/BTC strength → altcoin risk appetite. If ETFs resume net inflows, BTC stops falling and breaks out with volume, institutional funds may return. If outflows continue, BTC rebounds without volume, and ETH continues to underperform, reduce chasing positions.
My judgment is that it is not yet time to determine a trend reversal based solely on ETF outflows, but short-term signals are clear, and incremental funds are cooling. Before funds return, rebounds can be watched, but chasing gains should be cautious. The real long signal is the resonance of funds, price, and macro factors.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Lick a little every day, small position, take profits when you see good gains. Never go big, because going big might lead to zero.
Now every time I open a short position at a high point, I worry about liquidation. It's really about altcoins because after being doubled by altcoins twice, then pulled 5 times higher on the short side, I've been crushed twice. So now whenever I short altcoins, I shrink the interface a bit to check the historical highest point. If the forced liquidation price is within half of the historical high, I get very anxious inside, afraid it will hit me suddenly. Small positions, go hard! $NIGHT Here is your post rewritten in more detailed, clear wording: *Looking at my account today, I have very mixed emotions. BTC and SOL are trying hard to make back my losses, but ZEC — this bottomless pit — has taught me a super expensive lesson in risk management.* *$BTC - The Stabilizer* - Entry Avg: 84044 / Current Price: 84510 - Floating Profit: *276.58U, ROI 11.03%* BTC is still the anchor of my account, climbing slowly but steadily. My defense line / support is still around 79000. As long as t$CT is trading at $0.5558 (+10.51%), holding near its 24h high between $0.4807 and $0.6365.
Price is surging above MA5 ($0.5491), MA10 ($0.5400), and MA20 ($0.5275) on 15m chart, bouncing sharply from $0.4848 to $0.5638 after Concrete on-chain financial OS announcement.
Driven by $289.55M USDT in daily turnover and 520.95M CT in 24h volume, showing +10.51% today as No.5 trending New listing. Holding above $0.5491 could pave the way for retest of $0.5638.
@OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit Shorted at $6.5, held for two months, cut losses at $8.5.
$10.98 million just gone like that.
Of that, $5.18 million was funding fees, $5.8 million was price loss.
To put it bluntly, this person bet that $CXMT would drop after listing, but the price stayed as solid as a rock, and he had to keep paying daily to maintain this short position.
I hold the spot, and seeing this situation is actually a bit complicated.
On one hand, I think he deserved it—rushing to short before the listing isn’t judgment, it’s gambling.
On the other hand, I feel a bit moved—he held on for two months before admitting defeat, that must have been a lot of unwillingness.
But the market doesn’t care whether you’re willing or not.
The price went from 6.5 to 8.5, never giving shorts any respect in between.
To be fair, this $10.98 million loss is not undeserved at all.
The real question is, why do some people always think new listings should drop?
If you hold the asset, how would you view someone shorting before the listing? #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $CXMT 【10.3 Morning BTC Market Express】
Today's morning BTC market showed a "roller coaster": it surged to $87,219 in the early hours, then quickly dropped, hitting a low of $83,858, currently around $84,600, down about 0.35% in 24h.
Surge logic: US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 (expected 90,000), sharply lowering rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields and the dollar weakened, short sellers were liquidated for $142 million, driving a rapid price rally.
Crash trigger: Iran attacked a tanker again in the Strait of Hormuz (the sixth incident this week), geopolitical risks instantly outweighed macro positives, bulls collapsed at the 87k resistance level, spot selling pressure dominated the pullback, with long positions liquidated over $36 million (Binance/Bybit/OKX).
Key levels: support below at $83,800, resistance above at $87,000, maintain a range-bound view until a clear breakout occurs. This round of the market has produced a group of people who have never lost money.
They enter just as the price surges, buy anything and make money easily, growing bolder with each purchase. Their accounts have been green for so long that they call it insight. Coin selection, timing, stop-loss—none of these have been tested in a downturn; they rely entirely on the market support. The longer the support lasts, the more they believe in their own skill.
The loudest voices in the group are from this batch, showing off profits, recommending coins, all with impressive records. Those who have lost money speak less; no one wants to be the killjoy.
When I first entered the circle, I was just like this—buying whatever went up, pulling the curve beautifully in two weeks, truly thinking I had found the way. When the market turned, I gave it all back in a month and even lost some extra. Looking back, most of the profits I made earlier were thanks to the market; my own effort was negligible.
Later, I set a rule for myself: split every unrealized profit into two parts—one part from the market, one part from my own judgment. I only add to my position based on the part I earned myself. The part given by the market, if it falls back, I don’t mind; it was never truly mine, so don’t use it to boost your position.
$SOL In this round so far, the newly added positions have never experienced a single loss. When a real correction comes, the first to sell will be them; after running, they’ll congratulate each other for being quick. Don’t be misled by the noise then; the ones getting washed out are those who have never been hit before. Manage your position according to your own account.
Go through your holdings and clearly mark each one as either market-given or self-earned. If you can’t mark it, treat it as luck and reduce that position by one level first. The non-farm payroll night saw all the good news played out, and the market reversed to harvest. New job additions were far below expectations; the data was actually positive, but the market first pulled up to lure buyers and then quickly smashed down.
The Nasdaq surged and then fell back, with the 740 level as the dividing line between strength and weakness. $BTC jumped from 86000 to 87200 to lure buyers before diving; short-term moving averages are turning down, with support seen at 84200.
$ETH surged to 2777, then a large bearish candle gave back all gains, falling back near 2700; bearish pressure is increasing, and if 2700 breaks, it will test 2640.
$ZEC dropped directly to around 1280 early this morning. The bears must be very happy.DOGE long position wildly earned 583U, TRUMP and ETH also in the green, BICO dragging behind, net profit of four positions 503U
Just opened the account and took a look, DOGE, TRUMP, and ETH positions are all profitable, was quite happy at first, but then the BICO short position reversed and pulled up, overall net profit of four positions is 503U.
Position update:
$DOGE: opened at 0.0823, current price 0.0921, full 20X long position, floating profit 583U, ROI 212%. #USLongTermYieldsRise $DOGE 10.3 Sola $SOL
Short position: When the rebound reaches the 120.0-120.5 range, directly short
Among these three coins, this wave has dropped the most sharply, falling directly from 123.35 to 117.08. The high point dropped nearly 6 points, making the short position momentum the strongest. The current rebound looks promising, but it is actually a technical correction after overselling and cannot rise too high. The 120.0-120.5 range above is a previous dense trading area with concentrated selling pressure. Rebounding to this point is an excellent position to short. Place the stop loss above 121.5 for defense, and watch 118.0-117.5; if it breaks down, test the previous low near 117.
Long position: Buy lightly on the pullback to 117.5-117.0
For those wanting to go long, wait for the pullback near the previous low, and lightly try in the 117.5-117.0 range once the decline stabilizes. Sola is highly volatile, so the position size must be lighter than the previous two coins. Place the stop loss below 116.5, and decisively cut losses if it effectively breaks the previous low. The upward target is first 119.0-119.5; take profits at this level and don’t be greedy. In a rebound market, take profits when the rally looks good. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Recently, the big players have been quietly increasing their positions, and address data shows that whale addresses have had net inflows for three consecutive days. BTC current price is 84623.0, resistance at 85000, support at 84000. I lost 200,000 U and am recovering. I've followed big players and also got cut, but later realized that big players increasing positions doesn't mean an immediate rise; they may build positions in batches over several months. My approach is to watch big players' moves but not blindly follow; wait for the price to pull back to the support level before entering, open a position with 5000 U, stop loss at 83900, target 85000, never hold a position without a stop loss. The direction of big players can be referenced, but entry points must be calculated by yourself. $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%