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In the past period, ETH has consistently failed to effectively break above the $2,800 resistance, while the support around $2,600 has not been completely broken either, so overall it remains in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. However, from a technical perspective, the short-term correction risk is gradually increasing. 📉 The MACD has already shown some signs of bearish divergence, and the daily momentum is starting to weaken. If the subsequent bars turn further negative, it would mean bears may gradually take control. On the macro side, attention is also needed: 🇺🇸 The US added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, significantly below market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Cooling in the labor market may affect the Fed's future policy expectations. (Bureau of Labor Statistics) 💰 Regarding ETF funds, after seven consecutive trading days of net inflows into the ETH spot ETF, on September 29 it recorded a net outflow of about $2.81 million, indicating a cooling in fund sentiment. (PrimeXBT) 🌍 Meanwhile, the US-Iran situation and uncertainties in the energy market may still bring additional pressure to risk assets. Therefore, key levels to watch next are: 🔹 $2,750–$2,800: key resistance above 🔹 $2,650: important short-term support 🔹 $2,600: lower boundary of the range 🔹 If it breaks below $2,600, the next area to watch is $2,520–$2,550. Currently, it is still not simple to judge that the ETH trend has reversed, but if the price$DOGE spot price is 0.09263. The DogeOS public testnet launched on September 30, claiming to use DOGE as Gas without issuing additional tokens; the mainnet launch date has not been announced yet. The news has been hot for a few days, but the price is still stuck just below 0.10.
The lowest point in the early morning touched 0.09033, the 24-hour high of 0.09775 is still on the chart, but the current price has moved away from it. It dropped to the low and then bounced back, now standing at 0.09263, still some distance from the 0.10 mark.
A testnet does not mean mainnet usage has increased. Anyone using "L2 is coming" as a reason to chase longs now should wait for the mainnet and real transaction volume, not just a public testnet announcement.
Let's first watch which breaks first, 0.09 or 0.10, no rush to react to the public testnet news.
#DOGEThe wave of treasury accumulation rises again, with strategy funds increasing Bitcoin holdings driving market sentiment, but $SNDK did not follow the strength and instead faced pressure alone. My judgment is short-term weak oscillation with an undetermined breakout direction.
Down 2.3% in 24 hours, the price slid from a high of 1788.4 to 1718, with a turnover of only 353,000, showing low volume. Although the 1-hour level is climbing, the 4-hour trend is clearly downward. The order book buy-sell ratio is 0.74, with selling pressure dominant; funding rate is zero, and open interest is 44,000, with neither bulls nor bears daring to increase positions.
If it rebounds to 1729.6 and faces resistance, a light short position can be taken with a stop loss at 1752.3 and a target of 1684.5; if volume breaks below 1701.8, then chase the short with a stop loss at 1726.4 and a target of 1658.2. Position control should be within 20%, and avoid heavy positions before volume expands.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SNDK#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $SNDK MetaMask disclosed an infrastructure security incident on October 1, proactively exiting related Ethereum validators. The company said there was no immediate threat to wallets at that time. Researchers estimate about 17,000 validators and 523,000 ETH are exiting, but MetaMask has not confirmed this scale. The block rewards transferred to abnormal addresses are estimated by researchers to be about 0.36 ETH. CoinDesk separated the official statement and researcher estimates in their report that day.
Lido said the affected validators are expected to stop staking by October 7. Tokens need to be withdrawn and queued again, which may take about 45 days, with some loss of rewards in between. For stETH holders, Lido said no action is needed on their part. There have been no reports of penalties or slashing. As of Saturday, this exit timeline is still in place; the issue was disclosed on Thursday.
Currently, what can be verified is the exit and reward gap. Wallets being drained and 520,000 ETH being dumped immediately on the spot market have not been confirmed. The latter quantity remains an estimate.
$ETH was at 2678.85 early Saturday, closer to the 24-hour low of 2651, with a high of 2778.6 not sustained. The price is soft, overlapping with the timing of this incident; other reasons for the softness include consecutive net outflows from the Ethereum ETF in U.S. stocks. These two issues should not be conflated into one conclusion. The exit process will reach Lido's stated point next week; for now, watch and do not rush to act.BLAST has been placed on the trading watchlist by Bithumb because the Blast Foundation has announced plans to end mainnet operations.
Such alerts are usually more than just "sentiment reminders"; they represent a direct statement from the exchange regarding the project's sustainability risks. For BLAST, the shutdown of the mainnet will weaken the token's utility, ecosystem continuity, and exchange support stability, and it may face further risk control measures, restrictions, or even delisting reviews.
There are two more realistic observations in the market: one is that the short-term rebound looks more like sentiment repair, and the other is that the exchange's subsequent review results and the progress of on-chain asset withdrawals will directly affect liquidity expectations. Will BLAST be able to maintain its main liquidity, or will it continue to face tightened risk controls?
Source: BlockBeats
#BLASTBrothers, seeing this set of data made me gasp coldly...
The $TRUMP team’s behavior really treats us like an ATM! In 8 months, they quietly transferred 81.87 million tokens through exchanges, with an average price of 3.04, directly pocketing 249 million USD.
What’s the most amazing? The team holds 80% of the chips in total! After selling for a while, they only sold 8.2%, still holding 71.8%. At the current price, that’s a floating profit of 1.49 billion USD! Wow, their money printing machine is more efficient than any other, right?
Let’s be honest, for projects with such high control over the supply, retail investors playing contracts or buying spot are just pure liquidity providers. The project team holds 70% of the chips, they can pump or dump at will. Even a small sell-off makes the market shake; this huge selling pressure is like the sword of Damocles hanging overhead.
But on the other hand, the crypto world is all about consensus and hype. The "King of Understanding" naturally attracts traffic, no matter how concentrated the chips are, people still rush in one after another.Recently, market sentiment has clearly tilted bullish, with Bitcoin $BTC briefly reclaiming above $86,000. Many traders started chasing the rally, and some took long positions near $87,000. However, I choose to continue observing the bearish logic. The macro environment still faces pressure. The US 10-year Treasury yield recently rose back above approximately 5.2%, and funding costs along with risk-off sentiment may still limit the upside for high-volatility assets. Meanwhile, Crypto ETF funds have begun to show clear divergence: as of October 2, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $82.9M over the past week, while the ETH ETF experienced a net outflow of about $118M in the same period, indicating a noticeable cooling in capital enthusiasm compared to before. This does not mean the bull market is over, but the risk is increasing if the short-term rally continues to chase higher. My scenario is: 📉 First target: $81,000–$82,000 📉 If longs continue to crowd in: around $76,000 📉 In extreme cases: $71,000–$72,000 If BTC undergoes a deep pullback, it will clear leveraged longs who chased the highs and allow lower-position holders to take some profits, potentially restoring a healthier market structure. Of course, BTC still maintains strong resilience, and the spot BTC ETF recorded a strong inflow of about $2.39B in the previous week, so the trend cannot be judged as reversed based on just a few days of data. Therefore, the most important thing now is not to blindly be bullish or OpenAI plans to raise 30 billion at a valuation of 1.4 trillion, and the AI narrative spillover has brought attention assets like KAITO back into focus, but the positive news is unlikely to change the short-term weakness; I tend to be bearish with oscillation. The four-hour low has risen by 14.51%, but the one-hour has fallen by 6.15%, indicating a conflict between long and short cycles, showing that bulls are reducing positions rather than exiting. The current price is 0.3373, down 4.4%, with a volume of 28.807 million; the top ten buy and sell orders are almost balanced, the funding rate is only 0.0028%, open interest is 11.43 million, sentiment is cold but not panicked. Strategy: lightly short at a rebound to 0.3475, stop loss at 0.3565, target 0.3185; if it falls sharply to 0.3145, go long, stop loss at 0.3065, target 0.3345. Position size should not exceed 20%, exit if broken.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$KAITO#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 $KAITO Scaffolding isn't even stable yet, but they're already daring to lay bricks on top; this building is bound to have a safety accident sooner or later.
In sandbox simulations, I've built dozens of hundred-meter-high buildings, pulling back 20% without even blinking. Today, for the first time, I took out the real money I earned from moving bricks, and watching the red and green numbers jump on the $AAVE chart, my hand holding the trowel actually started trembling. Usually, carrying cement on the construction site fills me with strength, but now staring at the screen, my heartbeat is faster than a pile driver.
The current market is like a freshly poured foundation layer. The price is hovering around 182.35, the 1-hour Bollinger Band middle line at 180.6 is like a firmly embedded steel rebar foundation, supporting the base; the lower band at 177.9 is the last bearing platform. As long as this doesn't collapse, the formwork above can continue to be built upward.
The RSI is oscillating at 58.1, indicating the mixer above is still discharging at a steady rate; the bulls' cement hasn't fully set yet. The upper band at 183.3 pressing overhead is like a freshly supported cast-in-place beam formwork. Although my hands are shaking badly, the verticality of this load-bearing column is currently fine. For this first shovel of mortar, I have to grit my teeth and apply it.
- Target: $AAVE 🟢
- Entry: 181.5 - 182.8
- TP1: 184.5
- TP2: 187.2
- SL: 177.5
As long as cracks or broken rebar appear at the lower bearing platform 177.5, no matter how high it’s built, immediately pull out the safety net and evacuate the site.
#CoinMoveAlert 🏗️Brothers, how did the spot ETFs of BTC and ETH start flowing out together? Let me break it down for you.
Why are they running together?
First, the non-farm payrolls good news was realized, and institutions are taking profits. Before the data was released, funds had already positioned long; now that the good news is out, they are redeeming and cashing out.
Second, institutions are starting to hesitate. Poor employment indeed delayed rate hikes, but the market is already worried about "too poor employment leading to recession," so no one dares to keep adding crypto positions; they reduce positions first.
Third, this thing self-reinforces. Prices don’t rebound, more people redeem; redemptions hit the spot market, prices fail to rise further, creating a vicious cycle.
Bull or bear?
In the medium term, the big picture of non-farm payrolls being positive hasn’t changed, and the rate hike delay is real. But the short-term simultaneous ETF outflows are a bearish signal—BTC’s biggest buyers have shrunk, rebounds lack incremental funds; ETH’s funds are withdrawing even faster, indicating institutions are not optimistic about altcoins and the Ethereum ecosystem either.
What’s next?
In the short term, 1-3 days will likely be volatile, but don’t expect big bullish candles. Macro tailwinds will prevent a crash, but ETF redemptions cap the upside, making it easy to spike and then fall back. Every step BTC rises, someone sells; ETH, due to its higher elasticity but with funds running away, will have weaker gains than BTC.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH OpenAI plans to raise 30 billion at a valuation of 1.4 trillion, AI narratives continue to attract capital, but funds have not spilled over to SOL. I judge that the short term is still dominated by technical factors. Currently at 119.35, down 1.8%, hitting a low of 117.03 before being pulled back, the four-hour distance from the low is already 19.46%, the bottom rising structure is intact, and the pullback is a healthy consolidation. The top 10 buy orders total 16,000, surpassing the sell orders of 8,852, with a strength ratio of 1.81, funding rate only 0.01%, positions at 3.005 million, longs are not crowded, shorts have not dared to add, sentiment is neutral. Strategy: buy on the dip at 118.15, stop loss at 116.85, target 122.45; if volume breaks through 123.34, chase, stop loss at 121.85, target 126.05. Position control within 20%, do not hold if stop loss is broken.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$SOL#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 $SOL $SOL spot price is 119.1. The 24-hour open was 118.76, the highest 123.79, the lowest 117.13, and Shanghai midnight at 119.99. Bitcoin experienced fluctuations of over three thousand dollars up and down, SOL fell back from its high point, still slightly higher relative to its own opening price, with a smaller volatility range.
On October 2, the US stock market Solana spot ETF, Farside, had a total net inflow of about 1.3 million USD, almost all recorded on BSOL. The cumulative scale is about 1.6 billion USD, so 1.3 million is just a drop in the bucket. At the price of 119, there is no sign of large subscriptions pushing it up, nor concentrated redemptions suppressing it.
117 is the low point in these 24 hours, 124 is the high point, and 119 is stopped in the middle but slightly higher. Shanghai midnight is 119.99, the morning session is slightly lower than that position, meaning it gave back a little after midnight, but did not return to 117. There are no new macro figures over the weekend, and this range has not been broken yet.
Just hold for now. Bitcoin giving back its gains does not automatically become a reason to chase SOL; a daily subscription of 1.3 million is still not enough to prove a weakening trend.
#solNonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; CPI is the main course
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls have the market on edge again. BTC hovers around 86,000, ETH around 2,724, all waiting for the data to provide direction.
But the Fed is currently more focused on inflation. CPI ranks first, PCE second, and nonfarm payrolls at best third. As long as inflation cools down, even if employment heats up, there's justification for rate cuts.
Last month's nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, yet the market still rose after the initial drop; when PCE fell, the market rallied immediately. This shows employment isn't the main issue—it's inflation.
So for tonight's nonfarm payrolls, a worse-than-expected drop can be seen as a golden buying opportunity, while a better-than-expected rise shouldn't be chased. The real tone will be set by next month's CPI.
BTC could move around 86,000 either way; don't change your beliefs based on a single data point. ETH fluctuates around 2,724; keep holding short positions at 2,671 and wait for CPI. Also hold long positions in Tesla and Google; fundamentals remain solid.
Remember: nonfarm payrolls are the appetizer, don't get too full—the main course is yet to come.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% When SpaceX went public, investors compared two options: Bitcoin or SpaceX IPO.
Since June 12, Bitcoin has risen by more than 35%, while SpaceX has dropped about 8%.
Anthropic, one of the AI leaders, is reportedly preparing for an IPO with a valuation of $1.8–2 trillion.
This is more than the entire Bitcoin market cap, which is about $1.7 trillion.
AI is already changing the economy, but belief in AI does not mean that a specific company is a profitable investment at $2 trillion.
It is reported that Anthropic may raise up to $100 billion during the IPO. The company also reportedly has commitments of more than $500 billion for computing over a decade. Slowing growth could create significant financial pressure.
The 10x math is illustrative.
If Anthropic is valued at $2 trillion, for a 10-fold investment growth the company must reach $20 trillion.
For BTC at prices around $85,000, 10x means $850,000 per BTC. With a supply of 21 million coins, that is about $17 trillion in market cap.
So the ultimate target for 10x is not that different: about $17 trillion for Bitcoin versus $20 trillion for Anthropic.
Anthropic depends on management, competition, profitability, computing costs, and access to capital. New shares may dilute investors' stakes.
Bitcoin has no CEO, corporate expenses, or contracts worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
It is impossible to just create another $500 billion BTC to fund a new data center. Its supply is limited to 21 million coins.
If AI creates trillions of dollars of new value, it is unclear who will benefit: Anthropic, OpenAI, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, energy companies, or consumers through cheaper products.
Investing in an AI company requires identifying the specific winner of this race.
Bitcoin does not require such a choice: it is a bet on a digital asset with a fixed supply.
So these are two different investment models: a bet on a company or an asset with a predetermined supply.Just brushed away this layer of sedimentary rock, and the stratigraphic layer before my eyes made me laugh out loud—aren't these the shards of the last revelry wine glass from Pompeii?
Under the sun, there really is nothing new. Every time the market fluctuates, retail investors cry and panic at the bottom of the ruins pit; actually, two thousand years ago, Roman slaves betting in the Colosseum had the same expression. Currently, $BCH is hovering around 311.8, with the Bollinger Bands upper and lower bounds (303.6 - 315.9) squeezing the market into a dried Dead Sea scroll, and the RSI at 53.3 is like a bronze blunt instrument unearthed and oxidized, lukewarm and dull. What exactly is the market waiting for—a new excavation report, or just another collective hallucination?
Historically, before every dynasty collapse, similar auspicious omens were spread among the common folk. The current chip turnover is nothing more than replacing the Ming Dynasty Chongzhen era's extra three levies with today's on-chain liquidations. Losses don't need eulogies; they are just the most standard gravity deposits in stratigraphy, even making one want to open a can of soda in the excavation square and laugh at this absurd cycle.
Before this man-made ruin is completely carbonized, just measure the excavation depth of the stratigraphic fault zone.
- Target: $BCH 🟢
- Entry: 308.0 - 312.0
- TP1: 320.0
- TP2: 328.5
- SL: 298.0
The probe is stuck in the hard soil layer at 298.0; if it breaks through, it proves that below is all quicksand. 🏛️🔍
#CoinMoveAlert#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市# If this tech narrative comes true, it may briefly boost risk appetite in the crypto market, but SLX is still showing independent weakness. My judgment is that the rebound is unlikely to change the downward structure. The current price is 0.06285, down 1.6% in 24h, having retraced 16.26% from the 4-hour high. The trading volume is only 2.516 million, and the funding rate of 0.0050% shows longs are still paying. The open interest of 28.168 million coin-margined contracts shows no panic liquidation. The order book buy/sell ratio is 1.20, with buy orders slightly dominant, but in a downtrend, such support is easily eaten away. Risk control priority: If it rebounds to 0.06425, you can lightly try shorting, stop loss at 0.06575, target 0.06115; if it sharply falls and stabilizes near 0.06085, you can lightly try to catch the rebound, stop loss at 0.05955, target 0.06345. Single position should not exceed 5% of total funds; if stop loss is hit, you must exit unconditionally.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.——
$SLX#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $SLX The project team proactively admitted their mistake, which is rare in the crypto space.
Ozzy, the founder of PONS, responded to the buyback doubts yesterday by first apologizing, then explaining the mechanism in detail.
In simple terms, there are three things.
The buyback and burn now run automatically; anyone can trigger the bot and even earn a small reward.
The fund withdrawal is changed to a 7-day cycle; after withdrawal, the buyback and burn continue.
The buyback speed is 2e per hour, corresponding to about $950,000 in the fund pool.
What I care about most is the last point.
The money is divided into two pools: one for current purchases, one reserved for the next round.
This shows the team is at least thinking about "how to sustain," not just going all in at once.
My attitude is somewhat positive, but don’t get ahead of yourself.
Apologies and upgrades are just attitudes; what really matters is whether each subsequent buyback round truly follows this pace.
No matter how well the mechanism is written, if nothing happens on-chain, it’s all for nothing.
What do you think, how many months can this automatic buyback last?
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $PONS $BTC was around 84650 in OKX spot on Saturday afternoon. It opened in Shanghai at 85330.1 at midnight, then started to decline immediately, hitting a low of 83884 in the early morning. The morning session lifted it back to around 84601, which is a rebound from the low point, not a rise then fall during the Asian session.
From midnight, it is still about 700 lower. The 24-hour high of 87238.3 is still on the board but far away now. No new macro data is expected over the weekend, so the price has first given up the area near midnight.
If it really wants to go back up, it must at least reclaim the area near 85330; if it can't, the weekend will be read as lower than midnight. The order book is thin, so fluctuations can be easily amplified.
Let's first see if 85330 can be reclaimed at close, no rush to act.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#btc #ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700, with the privacy sector's capital attraction effect spilling over. WLD, as the AI identity narrative leader, also benefits. I judge that this wave of catch-up rally is not yet over. After a 24h increase of 11.3%, the price is 0.6035, with a turnover of 518 million. Funds are clearly rotating towards the AI track. However, the order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is only 0.74, with sell orders at 193,000 outweighing buy orders at 143,000, so short-term chasing of highs requires caution. The funding rate of 0.0100% is slightly neutral, with a position of 74.065 million coin-based contracts showing no drastic increase or decrease. Bullish sentiment is moderate rather than overheated. A 4-hour distance from the low of 62.16% indicates that bottom chips have gained considerable profit, while a 1-hour distance from the high of 0% means it is contesting the previous high of 0.6112. Strategically, a pullback to 0.5785 can be lightly bought with a stop loss at 0.5585 and a target of 0.6385; if there is a volume breakout above 0.6125, then chase the long with a stop loss at 0.5945 and a target of 0.6585. Position control should be within 20%, and exit immediately on a false breakout.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.——
$WLD#NVIDIA stock price hits a new all-time high, market cap approaching $6 trillion
#ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700 $WLD #ZEC hits a new high in this cycle, approaching $1700, with the privacy sector attracting capital and diverting some mainstream funds. BTC faces short-term pressure and a pullback, but the mid-term structure remains intact. I lean towards a rebound after adjustment.
Current price 84626.3, down 2.0% in 24 hours, the high of 87239 failed to hold, the low of 83826.4 was supported. The one-hour and four-hour trends are still upward, with 10.78% room above the four-hour low. Funding rate -0.0020%, shorts slightly paying, open interest at 28,000 coins, order book top ten buy-sell ratio 4.32, buy orders clearly stronger, limited selling pressure.
Trading strategy: lightly buy on a pullback to 83935, stop loss at 83120, target 86280; if volume breaks through 86570, add position, move stop loss to 85640, target 88730. Keep position under 20%, do not hold if stop loss is broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BTC #NVIDIA stock price hits a new all-time high, market cap nears $6 trillion
#ZEC hits a new high in this cycle, approaching $1700 $BTC I’ve held this position for around 2 days, and $ZEC has already moved roughly 6–8% lower. Let me clarify my thinking so nobody misunderstands the trade. 1️⃣ I normally prefer spot trading. After getting badly hurt by a leveraged liquidation in the past, I became much more cautious with contracts. Leverage can turn a small market move into a very large loss. 2️⃣ This time I’m keeping the leverage low. My $ZEC short is only around 3x, and the position size is intentionally small. I’m using money I$BTC Last night’s "pump and dump" probably tricked quite a few people into entering the market.
Currently, long positions are clearly overweight. Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.2065, OKX is 1.33, and the large holders’ long-short ratio even reaches 2.0224. The short-term longs are crowded; if the price breaks below $83,000, it could further amplify long stop-loss pressure.
For now, be cautious and don’t rush to chase orders. Focus on watching whether $83,000 can hold.
$ETH $ZECBurning continues, but what really needs to wait for is buying demand, not the next poster.
$BEAT: About 1.23 million tokens were burned from September 21 to 28, with weekly revenue around $113,000. Revenue and burning coexist, which is indeed more practical than just talking about music + AI. But don’t just look at the number of tokens: the lower the coin price, the more tokens the same amount of dollars can buy to burn. If paid revenue does not continue to grow, the burn figures might just mirror the price decline. Only if the revenue curve also rises does the logic become stronger.
$BICO: Paying transaction fees on behalf of users is a smart design. New users don’t have to buy another coin first, lowering the operational threshold and possibly improving retention. But the cost hasn’t disappeared; it’s just shifted from users to the application side. If the users gained through subsidies have long-term value, then adoption is justified; if it’s only relying on promotions to boost volume, the hype will be discounted.
$HYPE: Oscillating around 90, about -2.8% over the week. Good platform business doesn’t mean the token should immediately rebound after every pullback. Business and entry price should be viewed separately. 90 can be treated as an observation point first; if rebounds consistently fail to hold, it indicates selling pressure remains. No need to rush to conclusions tonight.
On the macro side, US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, so risk appetite may also fluctuate. Burning, subsidies, and quotes ultimately have to be tested by cash flow and buying demand.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% The US spot ETF has seen net inflows for five consecutive trading days, totaling $2.6322 billion over the past 5 days, yet BTC has dropped 2.76% this week. Money keeps flowing in, but the price is retreating—so who is actually setting the price? Let's look at three variables. First, the capital flow remains positive: on September 21, a single-day net inflow of $1.4042 billion; September 22, $249.3 million; September 23, $350.2 million; September 24, $193 million; totaling about $2.6322 billion over the last five trading days, all positive inflows. Second, the price is retreating: BTC currently at $83,559.8, down 1.07% in 24 hours, down 2.76% over the past week, about 4.6% below the upper bound of the 20-day range at $87,399. Third, macro signals are mixed: the US dollar index fell below 101 to 100.97 (-0.32%), but spot gold also retreated to $4,214.5 (COMEX $4,245.2, -1.76%), while the S&P 500 rose 0.51% to 7,743.41. Putting these three sets of numbers together, the answer is actually clear: short-term price is not driven by "net capital inflows" but by **marginal selling pressure** and **leverage structure**. The ETF's $2.6 billion is a steady subscription by allocation funds done proportionally, providing a floor; what determines the weekly price movement are the fast in-and-out leveraged positions, early holders cashing out, and risk appetite swings caused by macro events. When the allocation fund's capital is smaller than the short-term capital'sActually, this market is essentially a casino!
Looking back at the trades I've made over the past few years, I've had big wins and big losses, but in the end, after all the ups and downs, it all went to fees.
Since entering this market, my heart feels worse and worse, with frequent shortness of breath and various minor ailments repeatedly appearing in me!
I consider myself someone with good risk control; I rarely put actual leverage above 3x, but I still break my own promises. At the very beginning, after losing everything, I even tried taking out loans—taking out loans was an unconscious act at that moment.
I used to mock those who lost everything trading crypto, wondering why they let themselves fall so low. Until later, I realized I was no different from them. Fortunately, I’m still a student, so even if I lost all my money, the amount wouldn’t be very large!
But this has already impacted my personal financial planning for the new year. When $ETH was empty shorted at 3000, I watched it rise to 4000 and then close to 5000. Along the way, I added to my position countless times but still couldn’t hold on till the end.
I originally thought my luck had turned this year, or that I had reached enlightenment. I almost broke even and even made a big profit, but the final outcome was still liquidation. These past two years have been full of ups and downs, 😞 I’m almost forgetting the vows I made when I first entered this circle.
Because gamblers don’t remember the promises they once made! Just like I’ve already forgotten my promise to only trade spot.
I still know that even if I stop now, my life would still be perfect—I’m still that 985 graduate student—but I feel like I can’t go back. This must be my fate!The focus of the PONS controversy has finally been clarified: it's not that there was no buyback and burn, but that there were issues with the previous mechanism for fund claiming and buyback pacing.
On October 3rd, PONS founder Ozzy responded to community doubts, stating that the buyback and burn process has now been automated, allowing anyone to trigger the bot to execute it and receive a small reward. The team is also upgrading the contract, with the new mechanism automatically claiming funds every 7 days and then continuously performing buyback and burn over the next 7 days.
Currently, the buyback rate was previously set at 2e per hour, corresponding to about $950,000 in funds in the Splitter. Future funds will be split into two parts: one is the Active Buyback Vault executing the buyback, and the other is reserved funds for the next cycle.
What really matters this time is not "how much is bought per hour," but whether the buyback mechanism can be continuous, transparent, and verifiable.
The transmission logic is:
Protocol revenue → funds enter buyback pool → automatic buyback of PONS → token burn → circulating supply decreases → if demand remains unchanged, supply side contracts.
But there is a key premise here: burning reduces supply but does not automatically create demand. The official PONS documentation also clearly states that buyback and burn itself does not guarantee a price increase.
Therefore, I am more concerned with the subsequent on-chain data rather than just the founder's statements.
First, whether the funds in the Splitter are normally entering the buyback on a 7-day cycle;
Second, whether the actual buyback amount and burn quantity are continuously increasing;
Third, protocol transactionsThe stablecoin market cap has recently rebounded by $4 billion, now reaching a total size of $270 billion!
This indicates that off-exchange funds are slowly entering, and the market is warming up.
However, this recovery is still somewhat mild, still $14 billion short of the May peak.
If subsequent funds don't keep up, relying on this amount of money to push Bitcoin to new highs will be very difficult.
$BTC $ETH $CRCL Wealth accumulation actually has three stages.
The first stage, when your principal hasn't grown yet, don't spend every day studying how to double your investments.
At this time, the most valuable thing is not the rate of return, but your labor ability and earning ability.
The second stage, after you have a certain principal, you can't rely solely on a fixed salary.
At this stage, you need to start thinking, find those obviously mispriced opportunities in the market, and once discovered, dare to act on them, making money through cognitive differences.
The third stage, when your capital is already large enough, you shouldn't constantly think about outsmarting the market.
At this time, what really matters is to see the trend clearly, stand on the side of the historical big direction, and let the era help you make money.
This logic was actually summarized more than two thousand years ago by Sima Qian in "Records of the Grand Historian · Biography of Merchants":
"Without wealth, rely on physical strength; with little wealth, rely on intelligence; when wealthy, rely on trends."
When you have no money, rely on physical strength; after having some money, rely on brainpower; when you have a lot of money, rely on trends.
In short, wealth growth has never been about using a single strategy to the end.NiuLai dropped quite sharply today.
The price is now around $0.086, down more than 12% in 24 hours, with an intraday low even hitting 0.0826.
A few days ago, it was fluctuating around 0.11–0.12, and on September 13th, it even surged to a high of 0.162. Calculated from the peak, it has retraced nearly half.
But there’s a data point I find quite interesting.
NiuLai’s current market cap is about $86 million, with a 24-hour trading volume still over $24 million. The price is falling, but trading hasn’t died off, indicating there’s still considerable capital turnover at this level.
Also, unlike many purely on-chain small Meme tokens, it has already been listed on Binance spot, and later integrated with Earn, Swap, leverage, and VIP lending. The trading access points are actually quite complete.
So now, when I look at NiuLai, the focus is no longer on “whether it can return to 0.16.”
First, let’s see if it can hold around 0.08.
If after a big drop the volume remains, and the selling pressure can be absorbed near 0.08, I will continue to watch for a possible second launch opportunity.
But if 0.08 is also broken down with volume, then don’t rush to buy in.
What Meme tokens fear most is never the drop itself, but that no one plays after the drop.
At present, NiuLai hasn’t reached that point yet. $BTC Have you seen this monthly BTC liquidation heatmap?
Looking closely at the chip distribution, the 75000‑79000 range has accumulated quite a few positions pending liquidation. If the price falls back to this range in the future, it would be a very cost-effective window for buying the dip.
Currently, the market has not yet formed a clear and stable operational structure, and there is no definite one-sided trend to rely on. Compared to positioning for mid-to-long-term holdings, seizing fleeting short-term opportunities is more suitable for the current environment.
However, short-term trading especially tests self-discipline. When the market oscillates back and forth, it's easy to impulsively open trades frequently. Overtrading only wastes principal and risks getting caught in liquidation waves. I have recently been deliberately controlling my trade frequency, patiently waiting for the price to approach the favored range before considering long positions, and otherwise calmly observing.
Before the trend becomes clear, maintaining a steady pace and protecting your positions is far more important than chasing scattered small profits.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% PONS got slammed again today.
It has now dropped to around $0.42, down more than 20% in 24 hours, retreating nearly 45% from the high of 0.7758 on September 18.
What’s even more frustrating is that the overall market isn’t actually that bad today. BTC has bounced back to around 86,000, but PONS keeps falling on its own, so we can’t entirely blame the market.
I noticed a noteworthy data point: there’s a whale on Hyperliquid currently holding about 14.85 million $PONS short positions, with a position value of roughly $6.26 million, floating profit already exceeding $2.1 million, and they’re still adding to the short today.
But I’m not ready to write off PONS just yet.
What’s really been strong for Pons so far is the trading volume and fees on Robinhood Chain; it’s not just a meme propped up by sentiment. The real question the market has now is whether that previous high activity can be sustained.
Especially since the early Gas subsidies on Robinhood Chain have ended, the remaining trading volume going forward actually has higher intrinsic value than before.
So for now, I’m watching PONS without rushing to guess if 0.42 is the bottom.
I’m focusing on two things first: when the big short sellers start reducing their positions, and whether Pons’ own trading volume and fees can hold steady. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly drop, and Bitcoin falls instead? My short position is finally about to break even!
Nonfarm data surprises—why does BTC fall instead of rise? Plain explanation of the truth:
1️⃣ Buy the rumor, sell the fact: The price was pulled from 83,000 to 87,000 before the data release; whales used the good news to offload $2.5 billion, cashing out chips, turning the good news into a trap.
2️⃣ Geopolitical black swan: Iran attacked an oil tanker, causing safe-haven funds to instantly withdraw, embracing gold and the dollar.
3️⃣ High leverage hunted down: The 87,000 level was tested twice but failed; $433 million long positions liquidated, triggering a chain reaction stampede; ETF inflows ended after 9 days.
From the heart:
The hard-earned money we make at the bottom layer must never be risked on high-leverage one-sided bets during macro data releases. Sharp spikes can cause double liquidations back and forth! Spot holders should hold their base positions, play dead, and wait for the wind to come. As long as you don’t add leverage, volatility is just a paper drawdown. Protect your principal—staying alive is better than anything! $BTC $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Analysis on the Possibility of Sideways Movement in October and the Impact of Midterm Elections Breaking the Pattern
The overall crypto market is expected to move sideways in October 2026, with key turning points potentially triggered or broken by the midterm elections. It is recommended to gradually exercise caution starting from October 20:
· 10/20: China's LPR, Federal Reserve enters FOMC blackout period, risk control before elections begins;
· 10/27—10/28: FOMC interest rate decision + press conference;
· 10/29: US Q3 GDP preliminary data, Bank of Japan meeting window;
· 10/30: US September PCE, CME crypto options expiration, month-end rebalancing;
· 11/2: US October ISM Manufacturing PMI;
· 11/3: US midterm election voting day;
· 11/4: US Treasury refinancing announcement;
· 11/6: US October nonfarm payrolls.
Therefore, from October 20 onwards, leverage and positions should be reduced, stablecoins should be held, and avoid betting on a one-sided move to guard against election night spikes, widened spreads, and thinning liquidity. Avoid heavy positions betting on the result on November 3, as a tight election race may delay the outcome by several days. It is more prudent to enter in batches after the election results become clear and after macro events such as FOMC, PCE, and nonfarm payrolls have settled.
Also pay attention to: BTC/ETH spot ETF fund flows, SEC/CFTC regulatory developments, stablecoin supply and premiums/discounts, funding rates, open interest, and liquidation clusters. The midterm election is the main catalyst but not the only variable; the market often prices in advance, so November 3 may not necessarily be safe Brothers, BTC has returned to just above 84,000, and ETH has also dropped back to 2,664. After a whole week of turmoil, it feels like a dream.
Last night I still thought it would go up, but once the data came out, the market digested it and immediately turned sour. I woke up this morning to a sharp drop and was completely stunned; my position was almost at the liquidation price.
I used to think that if you got the direction right, holding for a long time didn’t matter. Now I realize that saying is the most harmful. Holding too long makes you start making excuses: at first you can cut losses, then it becomes "wait a bit more," then "it will definitely come back," and finally you even add to your position to lower the cost.
The most ridiculous thing is that when you first open a position, you clearly know when you’re wrong and run, but after holding for a few days, you seem like a different person.
So this time I won’t fight with myself. If I can’t hold long-term, I won’t hold. From today on, I’ll switch to day trading, closing positions the same day, never leaving positions to the next day’s emotions and black swans.
What do you think is the hardest thing to change in trading: the technique or your own personality?
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH $ZEC The most critical pressure on BTC right now may not necessarily come from insufficient new funds, but from the locked-in chips above waiting to be unlocked.
On October 3rd, Glassnode stated that currently two types of Bitcoin holders are overall still at a floating loss: holders for 1-2 years have an average cost of about $97,000, and holders for 6-12 months about $89,000.
These two cost ranges are very worth paying attention to.
Because for investors who bought at high prices, as long as BTC approaches their cost price again, their first reaction may not be to continue adding positions, but rather "finally breaking even, let's sell a little first."
Glassnode observed that investors who bought at high prices during the 2025 upward phase have recently been the most active sellers, with daily outflows already at this year's high; conversely, investors who bought during the subsequent downward phase show significantly less selling pressure.
Simply put, holding BTC at different costs leads to completely different behaviors.
High locked-in chips → price approaches cost → increased willingness to break even → potential selling pressure rises.
Low-cost chips → lower cost → thicker safety cushion → lower short-term selling willingness.
So the real problem BTC needs to solve next is whether it can absorb this batch of "break-even positions" above.
If the price rises while volume expands, it indicates that new buying is strong enough and the market can absorb this selling pressure, then after the chips complete turnover, it is actually beneficial for further upward movement.
But if the price approaches these holders' cost ranges and volume expands without price rising, it indicates locked-in positions are starting to be concentratedly realized, and short-term pressure is easily formed.
My judgment is, right now $SPCX is really strong. The current trend is basically shooting for Mars.
The best decision I made recently was to cut losses at the 142 level.
Otherwise, judging by the current trend, I would be close to liquidation now.
After the big rocket opened, it kept dropping for several days.
The whole market was in a slump, so I started shorting $SPCX.
The opening price for my short position was around 132, then I kept adding positions up to 139.
Then when it dropped to 142, I chose to cut losses and exit, overall at a loss.
Now seeing this situation, it’s not dropping but keeps rising nonstop.
My rational side tells me to try going long this wave, it might reach 160.
But now I’m itching to short again, the bears never surrender.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Wow, the unrealized profits are surging again, this roller coaster ride is making my heart race!
Damn it!
Small real position rolling for trading
Currently holding a long position in $ETH, unrealized profits have reached 18.11%. Previously, profits were given back and forth, but finally pulled back up a bit.
$BTC surged to 87239 then pulled back, now hovering around 84600 with repeated grinding. The four-hour indicators have started to weaken, bulls don’t have enough momentum to push to previous highs.
ETH is oscillating along with the market; without a market breakout, it’s hard for it to make a strong bullish candle on its own.
What’s most frustrating now is this kind of market: holding profitable positions, afraid to close and get stopped out, but also afraid of a pullback wiping out all profits.
The market sentiment is mostly bullish, but there’s heavy selling pressure at high levels, so we can’t be blindly optimistic. I’m not planning to add more positions now, just holding the current ones is enough. If BTC holds 83800, bulls still have a chance; once it breaks down effectively, it’s time to take profits and run, no fighting to the end. In a high-level market, locking in profits is the only real gain.
#BTC surges then enters high-level consolidation #ETH moves in sync with the market
$BTC $ETH$BTC &$ETH $ETH
ETH/BTC Breaks Long-Term Downtrend: Altseason Awaits BTC Confirmation
ETH/BTC has broken above a nearly five-year downtrend, marking a major technical signal for this cycle.
But altcoins usually need BTC to lead first. If BTC holds above $87K and breaks higher, capital could increasingly flow into altcoins. $DOGE's 15% momentum over the past 30 days has faded, with the price falling back to around 0.09.
DogeOS testnet aims to make DOGE not just a payment method but also a DeFi settlement layer, which sounds like an upgraded narrative; however, Bitwise's DOGE ETF was shut down last month, and institutional channels are narrowing.
Still no cash flow, no staking yield, and the so-called settlement layer depends on selected operators rather than miners, meaning low real value; a single tweet from Musk can make or break it.
Pure beta with no cash flow, holding 40% position. Defend 0.088 and push for 0.098; reduce position if it breaks 0.084. DOGE wants to evolve from a joke to infrastructure, but it still only has meme-level confidence in its pocket.Beijing is starting to get cold, and it's windy.
Actually, the bull market has arrived now, but it's almost like it hasn't.
When it hasn't come, there's still hope; now that it has, it might only bring disappointment and confusion.
There are fewer and fewer new projects in the crypto space, and the volatility in the US stock market has also decreased.
It's frustrating.The short position opened before last night's non-farm payrolls is still held.
Now I don't need to manage this trade anymore.
Just waiting for the market to trigger take profit or stop loss.
I recalled last month's non-farm payroll announcement,
when the stop loss was triggered in the first few seconds of the waterfall drop.
Where was the problem?
The problem was the 100x leverage, and the two times I added to the position,
which caused my stop loss settings to be too extreme.
This time I didn't make the same mistake as last time.
No 100x leverage, no full position, no adding to the position,
no greed.
I hope I can maintain this state.
$ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $NIGHT
After a big surge, how to identify profit-taking?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 0.038191—0.052551, with a trading volume of about 17.57 million USDT.
The price rose more than 30% during the morning window, with clear buyer momentum, but profit-taking is also more sensitive. Continuation requires new buying support and cannot rely on the gains already made.
I will watch whether the volume increases to break above 0.052551 and then hold on a pullback; if this structure appears, it will increase the likelihood of continuation. The downside risk is insufficient support and failure to rebound; if it falls below 0.038191 and the rebound cannot recover, the outlook will be downgraded. The above boundaries come from the morning window, and subsequent market changes need to be re-verified.Brothers, Big Brother Maji's operations these days can really be written into textbooks.
He precisely exits at highs, dares to buy at lows, and keeps the total position fluctuating between 141 million and 165 million. I respect this rhythm.
He initially held 536 BTC, took a slight loss, then cut down to 369 BTC, perfectly avoiding that wave of pullback. When the market recovered, he added back up to 546 BTC in one go, then pulled back to 405 BTC to take profits. Now holding 390 BTC, average price 84,700, liquidation price 71,600, nailing the long-short rhythm tightly.
ETH is traded back and forth between 32,000 and 38,000 units. Previously, when floating profit was 2.18 million dollars, he reduced positions at highs to lock in profits, then bought back 37,000 units. Now the floating profit has been given back and even a loss of 380,000, with daily funding fees burning 1.18 million, liquidation price 2,540.
HYPE was replenished from 200,000 to 226,000 units, reduced to 179,000 at highs to directly turn losses into profits, now reduced again to 169,000, floating loss 230,000, liquidation price 57.
PUMP has a small loss of 230,000, just considered a blood bag for other positions, no more to say.
Why watch such whales? Not to copy their trades directly, but to see what big money is thinking. If they dare to exit at highs, it means they expect a pullback; if they dare to buy on dips, it means they believe the bottom is here.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH $ZEC TRX Treasury bought 148,000 coins, but the price only rose 0.5% in 24h
$TRX Treasury is buying, yet the price only increased by 0.5%—I am directly bearish at this level.
This morning, discussions about the TRON ecosystem circulated on Twitter, with Justin Sun being mentioned; TRON INC. Treasury increased its holdings by 148,000 TRX, bringing total holdings to 717.1 million TRX. After the event, the price only climbed from 0.3364 to 0.3369, +0.15%, barely making a splash.
Three logics are suppressing the price. First, it only rose 0.5% in 24h, with the price stuck at the 0.3376 ceiling without breaking through; second, the daily RSI is 45.8, neutral to slightly weak, MACD has been showing a death cross near the zero line for 6 days, with the green bars flattening; third, sentiment is off, with a volume ratio to the 30-day average of only 0.828, fear-greed index at 67 leaning toward greed, large coin long-short account ratio averaging 2.44, breadth 28/63, median price change -1.9%, indicating money is contracting.
Resistance above: 0.3376 (24h high)
Support below: 0.3309 (Bollinger lower band)
Current price 0.337, enter short directly; exit with loss if it breaks back above 0.3376, first target 0.3309.
Watching the market, follow me, next signal will come without rush or delay.
$TRX $BTCUS nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in October has dropped to around 20%. With Bitcoin and Ethereum pulling back after a rally yesterday, the bottom is rising. As the US midterm elections approach, they will provide support to the Middle East situation, so there is no risk of losing control in the short term. Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 82,600-87,200 in the past week. It is likely to push towards 90,000 or 100,000 only if it stabilizes above 87,000; breaking below 83,000 could test 70,000. Therefore, the current pattern remains sideways. It is recommended to buy Bitcoin on dips near 84,000 and sell on rallies near 86,000; for Ethereum, buy on dips near 2,670 and sell on rallies near 2,740, repeatedly capitalizing on the oscillating market. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 One confirmation and finality are not the same thing.
After a transaction enters a block, wallets usually show success quickly, but a brief chain reorganization can still cause it to leave the canonical chain and be re-mined. The rollback cost only becomes significant as subsequent proofs and finality form. Small daily payments can accept fewer confirmations, while high-value settlements should wait for stronger certainty and set thresholds based on application risk. Interfaces that translate "included," "confirmed," and "finalized" all into green checkmarks may mislead users into thinking there is no difference. The key to understanding $ETH as a settlement asset is not that all transactions are instantly irreversible, but that certainty increases as the protocol progresses. Exchanges, bridges, and institutions set different posting waits, which is not necessarily inefficiency but risk management for reorganizations. Speed and certainty should be expressed in layers; the more important the funds, the more you cannot rely solely on the first success notification.
Payment scenarios should also distinguish between the payee having seen the transaction and the funds being truly irreversible. Delivering high-value goods in advance actually assumes the risk of reorganization and double-spend windows. The larger the amount and the more irreversible the delivery, the higher the waiting standard should be; the same green status should not correspond to all real business risks.$SAND continues to short! It has risen by 20% in the past dozen hours, but looking at the real moves of smart money in the backend, they are completely operating in the opposite direction.
At midnight, there were 543 bulls versus 232 bears. Now that the price has risen, the bulls not only did not follow up, but quietly withdrew 19 positions, while the bears on the other side suddenly increased by 100 people, with the total position soaring directly to 6.68 million U, Is $WLFI worth holding? Is USD1 safe? Expert in-depth answers The investment risk of the WLFI token is extremely high, while the technical security of the USD1 stablecoin is acceptable but carries significant centralization and political risks. Experts generally believe that these two products are deeply tied to the political fate of the Trump family, and their risks far exceed those of ordinary crypto assets. 1. WLFI Token: A High-Risk Political Concept Investment The price performance and governance structure of the WLFI token reveal its extremely high investment risk. First, the price has been continuously plummeting, repeatedly hitting new lows. Since its issuance, the WLFI price has been declining, dropping more than 65% from its annual high and hitting a historical low of $0.056 in May 2026. Its price trend is highly correlated with Trump's political prospects, and analysts warn that if the Republican Party loses the election, the token may face greater selling pressure. Second, there are serious governance and conflict of interest issues. The project team was exposed for selling an additional 5.9 billion WLFI tokens to private investors without sufficient disclosure. Meanwhile, 75% of the net proceeds from token sales flowed to entities associated with the Trump family. The project team also used 5 billion WLFI tokens, valued at $429 million, as collateral to borrow over $75 million in USDC. This caused the USDC liquidity pool on its lending platform to be depleted, preventing other users from withdrawing funds and raising concerns about bad debts and contagion risks. On-chain analysis shows that only 4 wallet addresses control about 40% of the voting power,Big Brother Maji is back to accumulating again. $BTC $ETH
After today's operations, the position size has been rebuilt to $145 million, and it's still all long positions. Don't just focus on his small coins for entertainment; what really matters is his position structure.
BTC 290 coins, about $24.52 million; ETH 37,100 coins, about $99.43 million; HYPE 177,000 coins, about $15.54 million; PUMP about 1.025 billion coins, about $5.65 million.
The four long positions add up to $145 million, currently with an unrealized loss of about $1.027 million, and the margin usage rate is already 83.76%.
What's more interesting is that he didn't just blindly add all day today. From midnight to afternoon, he first reduced BTC, ETH, and $HYPE, with a net loss of about $171,000, then gradually rebuilt the positions, adding 53 BTC alone.
My understanding is that Maji's core strategy is very clear now: BTC and ETH form the main holdings, while small coins are for flexibility. The direction can be wrong, and positions can be adjusted, but the main line never changes.
Of course, a $145 million position looks fierce, and an unrealized loss of over $1 million is real money. A large position doesn't necessarily mean being right; it only shows he's still willing to bet on this direction.This market situation is really a bit frustrating. $BTC $ETH
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
PCE was below expectations, nonfarm payrolls were poor at only 29,000, US stocks all rose, but BTC and ETH fell after the good news, as if they were deliberately waiting for the news to trap those chasing longs.
Let's first talk about the recent macro environment.
US August PCE year-on-year was 3.4%, core PCE was 3.0%, both overall lower than the market's previous concerns. The subsequently released September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wages grew only 0.1% month-on-month, and July and August employment numbers were revised down by a total of 60,000.
Inflation cooling and weakening employment—both sets of data reduce the market's worries about further Fed rate hikes.
Therefore, US stocks rose after the nonfarm release, with the Nasdaq rising especially noticeably.
But for the crypto market, weak data does not only have the interpretation of "good news."
If employment is only moderately cooling, it indeed benefits liquidity expectations; but if employment continues to weaken while consumption and corporate profits also start to come under pressure, the market will shift from "the Fed won't raise rates" to "is the economy going to have problems?"
Now BTC and ETH have not maintained the post-news rally, indicating that the crypto community has not yet fully believed the first narrative.
BTC is currently around 84,600, with a 24-hour high of 87,239 and a low of 83,826.
The most obvious problem in this movement is that the upward breakout was not sustained. Just a little space opened above 87,000, and the price was immediately pushed back below 85,000, suggesting a possible false breakout in the short term.
However, BTC has not completely deteriorated.
84,000–83,800 remains the current first key support. As long as this is not effectively broken, the overall movement can still be seen as a high-level oscillation within the 84,000–87,200 range, rather than a confirmed new round of decline.
For BTC to regain strength, the first step is to reclaim 85,500–86,000, then it can qualify to retest 87,000–87,200.
If the next attempt to break 87,200 still fails to hold, it means selling pressure above remains; but if it can break through and hold on a pullback, it truly opens the way to 88,000 and even higher levels.
Conversely, if 83,800 is lost and the rebound cannot recover, the short-term structure will weaken, with the next supports at 82,000 and then the 80,000 round number.
On the funding side, BTC spot ETFs have maintained slight net inflows in the past two days, indicating traditional funds have not fully withdrawn, but the inflow intensity has clearly cooled compared to the previous phase.
So BTC now looks like it has some capital support but temporarily lacks incremental buying power to break upward.
Looking at ETH, the situation is somewhat weaker than BTC.
ETH is currently around 2,682, with a 24-hour high of 2,768 and a low of 2,646. After failing to break 2,780–2,800 earlier, the price fell back below 2,700, indicating that resistance in this area remains effective.
ETH spot ETFs have recently seen continuous net outflows, forming a clear contrast with BTC's slight net inflows.
This is why, facing the same weak nonfarm data and rising US stocks, BTC can still hold above 84,000, while ETH repeatedly falls below 2,700: the market's incremental funds currently favor BTC, and ETH has not yet regained dominance.
In the short term, ETH should first watch 2,645–2,670.
This is both near the 24-hour low and the last relatively clear support zone in the current rebound structure. As long as it holds, the price may still rebound to 2,700 and 2,720–2,740.
But 2,720–2,740 has now changed from support to the first rebound resistance. ETH must reclaim 2,740 to have a chance to retest 2,780–2,800.
The real reversal of weakness depends on an effective breakthrough and hold above 2,800. Before that, ETH's rise is better seen as a recovery after a decline, not the start of a new trend.
If 2,645 is effectively broken, the next support to watch is 2,600; if 2,600 is lost, the market may continue to seek lower support.
Next, we need to observe the linkage between BTC and ETH.
If BTC holds 83,800 and returns to 86,000, but ETH still cannot hold 2,740, it indicates ETH's relative weakness will continue.
If BTC breaks below 83,800, then ETH's 2,645 will likely continue to be under pressure.
Only if BTC breaks above 87,200 again and ETH reclaims 2,800 can it be said that the liquidity expectations brought by this weak nonfarm data have truly transformed into an upward trend in the crypto market.
Now entering the weekend, with US stocks and ETFs suspended, the crypto market lacks incremental funds from traditional markets, making prices more prone to repeated spikes at key levels.
So even if there is a sudden surge or drop over the weekend, one should not judge by a single candlestick; at least observe whether the breakout can hold.
Babala's 2,740 short position has already taken partial profit, with the remaining position mainly watching 2,645.
My overall current judgment is: BTC remains in consolidation, ETH is relatively weak, macro news is temporarily positive, but prices have not yet confirmed a bullish trend.
When good news comes out but prices can't rise, it is often more worrisome than no good news; but as long as key supports are not truly broken, one should not prematurely label the consolidation as a major downtrend.