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"Why Crypto Is Being 'Squeezed' by U.S. Treasuries"
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have surged again, with the 30-year nearing 5.7%. This is not just bond market news; it signals a global repricing of capital costs. Financing becomes more expensive, risk budgets shrink, and funds naturally withdraw from high-volatility assets. Crypto, lacking cash flow, gets sold off first as rate hike expectations rise.
Current market: $BTC finds support at 84000, resistance above 87000; $ETH has support at 2660, faces pressure near 2750. In terms of operations, keep one short position each on $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC, no rush to close them yet—wait for clues on inflation and rate hikes from the meeting on the 8th before acting. The stop loss below 84000 has been triggered, indicating a fierce short-term shakeout.
The news isn't all negative: This week the Fed will release the September meeting minutes; BTC whale selling pressure weakens, and ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks. However, the new highs in long-term rates suppress risk appetite, so rebounds may still be sold off. Don't heavily bet on direction now; wait for confirmation. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 "Holiday Balance and Candlestick Chart"
Only one day left of the holiday, and my biological clock is more diligent than an alarm clock. I open my eyes with nothing to do, reach for my phone, check the market, instantly wake up, and then instantly feel speechless.
BTC is hanging at 85,990, up 0.90%. Last night it surged to 86,963, just a breath away from 87,000. I hesitated at 84,000, retreated at 85,000, now it’s stuck at 86,000, and I’m stuck in regret. Missing out doesn’t lose money, but it’s more tormenting than losing money—no matter how much you clap your thighs purple, you can only watch others raise their glasses.
ETH is at 2,716, up 0.77%. Its ceiling feels like a hard limit; last night it softened at 2,739 and didn’t even touch 2,750. Holding a long position feels like serving a sentence: squeezing toothpaste when it rises, opening the floodgates when it falls. Every day I hope it will be strong, but it precisely slaps me in the face every day—truly frustrating.
BNB is 788.2, slightly up 0.17%. The order book layers are stacked, my pending order hangs halfway up the mountain, as if contributing a few scraps to the old whales. Yet it steadily stands above 788, as if laughing at me: What’s the rush?
One day left of the holiday, the market hasn’t rested, nor has my heart. I close the app and decide to have breakfast first—after all, the candlestick chart doesn’t care about me, but my stomach does.ZEC is indeed at a somewhat "eerily quiet" position right now.
On-chain, 7,166 ZEC were withdrawn from Coinbase within 12 hours. At the current range of about $1,330–$1,340, that's close to $9.6 million. A new wallet and a one-time large withdrawal cannot be directly classified as "long-term holding." It could be self-custody or a preparatory move for subsequent batch sell-offs. This signal only indicates that the chips are being concentrated and transferred; it does not indicate direction.
What’s more troublesome is the sentiment. Samson Mow pointed out that Zcash’s market cap is relatively high, with mean reversion risk approaching; meanwhile, the Grayscale ZCSH ETF has recently seen significant net outflows, indicating a cooling of institutional capital interest. Additionally, some of the stolen funds from Bitget have entered the Zcash shielded pool, making privacy both a narrative and a regulatory pressure point.
So here, don’t rush to short or hastily go long. Focus on two things: first, whether these 7,166 ZEC will flow back to exchanges; second, whether ETF capital flow will continue to turn negative. If the price breaks below recent lows, short-term selling pressure will significantly increase.
Do you want me to set up a scheduled task to check the movement of these 7,166 ZEC every few hours to see if they return to exchanges? #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Staring at the K-line for several hours, the computer's cooling fan hums annoyingly, making one feel uneasy. The current market is sluggish as if it hasn't woken up, but as soon as the mouse clicks a couple more times on the order page, the illusion of "as long as I enter the market, I can break even" starts creeping into the mind. Just now, my fingers hovered over the keyboard several times, but in the end, I forcibly moved my hand away and directly minimized the trading software. In this business, to make money, you first have to learn to wrestle with your own greed. Many times, losses aren't because the market moves too fast, but because you can't even endure this bit of boring fluctuation.
$BTC $SOL $SUI $ZEC's Tearing Moment: ETF Retreat, Whales Taking Over
ZEC is witnessing a rare showdown between bulls and bears: ETF funds are withdrawing, while on-chain whales are buying.
In recent times, ZEC has retraced about 21%, with Grayscale ZCSH shifting from a highlight to net outflows. Its cumulative inflow once reached $271 million, but turned negative by the end of September, with a weekly outflow of $93.56 million, $30.25 million redeemed on September 30, and another $26.93 million outflow on October 2; cumulative net inflow shrank to $213 million, and the scale dropped from $980 million to $751 million. The continuous bleeding of ETFs mainly reflects traditional funds' risk control actions.
However, on-chain signals are completely opposite. Garrett Jin holds 202,000 ZEC at an average price of $437, with an unrealized profit of about $224.5 million, while hedging with 38,000 short positions. A certain whale withdrew about 41,700 ZEC from Binance and OKX in one week, net holding 23,000; a consortium of six addresses holds 65,158 ZEC, increasing by 15.2%, adding positions despite unrealized losses. Withdrawals indicate chips are moving from weak hands to strong hands, and the shielded pool accounts for 31% of circulation, easing selling pressure.
Fundamentals also have highlights: the NU7 testnet has been activated, block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, mainnet height set for October 20, targeting November 5. Technically, RSI has fallen back near 50, the 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA, and $1,233 is a key support.
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Ondo is bringing an AI company's IPO onto the blockchain.
It is preparing to issue tokenized exposure of an unnamed pre-IPO AI company, allowing qualified investors to access trading 24/7 through self-custody wallets.
But the two most noteworthy keywords here are: "unnamed" and "without shareholder rights."
What you buy is not shares of the company, but price exposure. There is no traditional shareholder status, nor does it equate to having voting rights, dividend rights, or other entitlements.
Essentially, this packages the hardest-to-reach and least liquid segment of the pre-IPO market into an on-chain product that can be traded anytime.
However, tokenization does not create ownership out of thin air.
It solves the liquidity problem of "can't buy, can't sell," not the ownership issue of "whether shareholder rights exist."
Therefore, whether this type of product can ultimately succeed depends not on technology, but on whether the market is willing to accept the reality of "not owning the company" in exchange for gaining price exposure to AI IPOs.
Tokenization solves liquidity, not ownership. $MUBARAK finally turned profitable. 😮💨
I added to the position three times, then sold half after the pullback.
No more running after the pump this time — if it dumps, let it dump. I’m out. 😂📉
Take the profit and move on. No FOMO, no chasing.#DailyOrbit The Federal Reserve will release the September meeting minutes this week. If the wording leans hawkish, it will suppress risk appetite. As a high-beta asset, WLD will be the first to be affected. I tend to maintain a weak oscillation before the minutes. Current price is 0.5548, down 2% in 24 hours, with a volume of 155 million. The funding rate of 0.0074% shows that longs are still paying. Open interest is 68.618 million coins, decreasing over 1 hour but increasing over 4 hours. Short-term pressure is below 0.5823, with 0.5511 as key support. The order book shows buy orders at 378,000 versus sell orders at 335,000, with buyers slightly dominant and limited rebound momentum. Strategy-wise, lightly short at 0.5685 on a rebound, stop loss at 0.5789, target 0.5412; if it pulls back to 0.5473 and stabilizes, consider a short-term long, stop loss at 0.5381, target 0.5637. Position size should not exceed 20%.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$WLD#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $WLD Cracks in the sideways market: BTC holds the line, CT floods out
$BTC grinds around 85,500, $ETH hovers near 2696, seemingly calm on the surface but tearing apart locally. $CT is at 0.37, down about 24% in 24 hours, not a normal pullback but more like chips scrambling to exit. Some altcoins are still rotating, but CT is diving alone, which feels off.
Altcoins fear no follow-through after a pump. Profit takers at low levels want to cash out, high-level buyers hesitate, thin buy orders allow sell orders to hammer prices into a deep pit. Once the downtrend opens, rebounds are often escape windows, not reversal signals. So CT remains bearish short-term; do not close shorts yet, avoid bottom-fishing against the trend.
For BTC, the bias is bullish but only if 85,000 holds first. If it quickly dips then pulls back, there’s a chance to retest 86,000; if it breaks down and fails to recover, watch out for 84,000. ETH was above 2700 this morning but has dropped again; first observe if it can reclaim 2700–2720; if it fails to hold, look for support near 2650.
A sideways market doesn’t mean all coins are safe. Now more than ever, distinguish who is shaking out and who is unloading.
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 This week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the September meeting. The wording regarding the rate cut path will directly impact the US dollar and risk assets. I lean towards the minutes being slightly hawkish, but the market has already partially priced this in. BTC is under short-term pressure but with limited downside. Looking at the market, the price is 85705.1, up 0.6%, with both hourly and four-hour charts trending upwards, showing resilience with a 6.76% distance from the four-hour low; however, the order book buy/sell ratio is 0.48, with 1690 sell orders versus 817 buy orders, indicating clear selling pressure. The funding rate is 0.0032%, which is relatively neutral, and the open interest of 30,000 coins shows leverage is not overheated. Strategically, place long orders near 84937.5 with a stop loss at 84305 and a target of 86656; if the price rises to 86656 and faces resistance, consider light short positions with a stop loss at 87210 and a target of 85530. Keep position size within 30%. Volatility will increase around the release of the minutes, so be sure to use stop losses.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BTC#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC $CAP moved faster than I expected this time. I opened a long position around 0.0729, it once surged to about 0.096, and now the mark price is 0.09025, with unrealized profits exceeding 2.3 times. Although the profit has pulled back from the peak, the real gain came from the acceleration after the breakout.
The 4-hour chart is very clear: after bottoming near 0.06, it pulled back and then directly broke through the previous consolidation zone with volume, reaching a high of 0.10097. Although the price has retreated from the high, it has not fallen back into the breakout area, and the MACD has flipped back to the bullish side. We cannot conclude the trend is over just because of one retracement candle.
However, this new coin is very volatile, and there is obvious selling pressure near 0.10. I am now more inclined to protect the profits already made. If it can hold around 0.085, there is a chance to test 0.10 again; if it quickly falls below 0.08, the strength of this acceleration phase needs to be reassessed. $BTC $ZEC #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 ICE will launch gold futures in London.
The location itself is quite interesting: London is one of the global hubs for the physical gold market, with daily over-the-counter gold trading volume close to $190 billion, market holdings of about $1.4 trillion in gold, and it is also a key global gold pricing center.
So this is not just a simple "exchange launching a new product."
What truly deserves attention is that physical gold and standardized derivatives are further connecting.
The foundation of the gold market is physical gold, with layers above including spot, ETFs, futures, options, and other financial products.
Participants do not necessarily need to physically move a single gold bar; as long as the financial contracts are mature enough, a huge liquidity and pricing system can form around the same underlying asset.
This also provides a very direct insight for Crypto's RWA.
What RWA truly needs to replicate is not simply "tokenizing the asset," but the path gold has already taken:
Physical asset → Standardization → Financial products → Derivatives → Global liquidity.
Once an asset is fully financialized, value capture no longer happens only within the asset itself.
Therefore, ICE entering London gold futures is more like a public lesson from traditional finance to RWA:
The underlying asset is responsible for value, financial products for liquidity, and derivatives for pricing.
In the future, assets like Bitcoin, government bonds, real estate, etc., after further tokenization, may also enter larger financial systems along similar paths.$BTC short positions are still stuck, I don't plan to exit for now
$BTC hit a 24-hour low of 84,979, then bounced back to 86,720, now hovering around 86,328, up 1.24%. On the 15-minute chart, the 86,386 level was tested twice but not broken through, volume didn't keep up, indicating some short-term stagnation.
On the news front, a core member of the Russian Qilin ransomware was arrested in Japan; this kind of news has limited impact on the market, not a major variable. The real focus remains the resistance zone between 86,500 and 87,000, which wasn't broken yesterday and is being tested again today. $CORE
Core's performance continues to be weak, with multiple issues overlapping in narrative, tokenomics, ecosystem, and competition within its sector. The project initially promoted a grand story combining BTCFi + Satoshi Plus consensus, but after launch, its hype quickly faded, with a huge gap between promotional expectations and actual implementation. The token release cycle lasts up to 81 years, and continuous block reward inflation keeps diluting holders. Early private sales and miner stakes unlock in batches over the long term, creating constant selling pressure that suppresses the coin price. The accumulation of trapped positions is severe, and every rebound is met with large-scale sell-offs. The ecosystem has obvious shortcomings; most on-chain contracts are low quality, lacking leading DeFi projects or hit applications. Real active users are very few, and on-chain TVL and transaction volume are far below similar BTCFi projects, with no stable and sustained business cash flow to support valuation. Competition in the sector is even more fatal, with projects like Babylon, Stacks, Merlin diverting BTC staking funds. Institutional capital prefers competing products, continuously eroding Core's differentiated advantages. Additionally, the project has experienced validator reward loopholes and liquidation cascade crashes, which have continuously damaged market confidence. Its narrative concept sounds good, but fundamentals have not been delivered. It can only rely on sector pulse rallies for brief rebounds and is unlikely to achieve long-term trend growth. It is a high-risk speculative asset, requiring strict position control and well-planned stop-loss strategies for participation. Two hours ago I said 86,000 was a fake breakout. Now it's 85,875, falling back.
It's still showing +0.76% in 24 hours, but that's $330 less than 86,206 two hours ago. A fake breakout is just a fake breakout.
What really matters isn't the price, but this combination: 24-hour contract turnover down −11.21%, liquidations shrunk to 145 million (36% less than two hours ago), yet open interest actually rose +1.30%.
Lower volume + weaker liquidation + rising open interest = no one wants to leave, both bulls and bears are adding positions. This looks like the calm before the storm, not the end of the market.
The structure is also telling: 4-hour window short positions account for 67.89% (63.05% two hours ago). Price hasn't risen, shorts are still getting hit — indicating the rebound squeezed short-sellers, not that bulls are particularly strong.
The most eye-catching liquidation: the largest single 24-hour liquidation wasn't in crypto, but Hyperliquid's S&P 500 contract, $5.8047 million. Even US stock contracts are liquidating; leverage is the same everywhere.
A couple of quick notes: ZEC dropped from 1,383 to 1,356 (+4.58%, still the strongest); HYPE turned negative −0.52%; I said two hours ago CT would keep falling, now at 0.37202, −8.55%.
US stocks are still rising intraday: AVGO +4.82%, MSFT +1.10%, AMZN +1.31%, NVDA fell from +2.63% to +1.98%. Money is in US stocks, not crypto.
My judgment hasn't changed: 86,000 was a fake breakout, low-volume standoff waiting for Thursday 02:00 minutes. Before then, whoever moves first gets hit.
Before Thursday's minutes, are you adding positions or going short?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #Bitcoin #Fed #Macro
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Currently trading $BTC, the most important thing is not to predict, but to wait for the price to give the answer.
Repeated oscillations near $86,500, the intraday range from $85,050 to $86,634 has already laid out the short-term long and short divergences on the table.
A break above $86,600 and holding steady targets $87,500 first, then $88,000; if it falls below $85,000, then defense near $84,000 is needed.
Be patient before the range breaks, follow after the breakout. The battle now is not about who guesses right, but who can control their own rhythm.$ZEC perpetual 50x long position, opened at 1329.66, now at 1356.81, floating profit +102.09%.
The logic is very simple: the 1330 whole number support was tested multiple times without breaking, volume decreased, and the bottom characteristics are obvious. Finally waited for a bullish breakout candle to go long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1310. The trend is very smooth, no chance for a pullback.
Moved the stop loss up to 1340 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks above 1380, can hold for more.
$ETH $SOL #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 10.6 Gold Evening Review, Pressure Zone Performs as Expected
After bottoming at 4105 in the evening, it rebounded and rose, with the price surging to test 4179, just reaching the 4170-4190 pressure zone and then facing resistance.
The short-term is just a technical correction after the decline; moving average suppression remains, and the long-term bearish structure has not changed.
Resistance: 4170 to 4190
Support at 4130; if broken, further decline to 4105, looking toward 4080
Avoid chasing the rally, wait for pressure zone resistance signals, keep a light position, and strictly defend. $XAU $AKE perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.03426, now at 0.0298, floating profit +260.36%.
Honestly, this trade was opened quite comfortably. It was clear that above 0.034 the price couldn't rise anymore, a classic top reversal. When the bearish candle slammed down, I shorted immediately, setting stop loss at 0.035. With 20x leverage and a very small position, it never looked back and went into free fall.
+260.36%, moving stop loss to 0.031. In this market, shorts are the way to go.
$ETH $ZEC #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC 10x long position still open!
Opened at $86,460, currently BTC is around $86,159. After touching $86,694 intraday, it pulled back; the price still stands above the 1-hour EMA20 at $85,948, RSI is about 55. The rebound structure hasn't broken down yet, but it hasn't truly broken through either.
In the past approximately 23 hours, perpetual positions increased by 5.8%, and the funding rate is slightly positive. Leverage flows back in sync with price rises, which is more solid than just short covering; now stuck below the previous high, new longs are more easily shaken out by short-term fluctuations.
OKX smart money: 14 long, 17 short; long positions account for 53.1%, with an average long cost around $85,783. However, total positions have decreased by about $3.59 million compared to 24 hours ago, direction is bullish, but actual investment is still shrinking.
On the spot side, two forces are pulling: whales have increased holdings by 14,335 BTC since October 1, while long-term holders have reduced for seven consecutive weeks. Demand can still absorb supply for now, but selling pressure has appeared multiple times around $86,700.
Next, watch two closes: a 1-hour close above $86,700, then holding $86,300; only then does the price have conditions to test $87,400. If it closes below $85,780, this rally looks more like a high-level consolidation. I will first see if $85,200 can hold. Positions haven't moved; the chicken leg meal is downgraded from a “break-even celebration feast” to a menu item still waiting in line.$HYPE is truly unreasonable.
Today it went from 94.8 to 95, +5.2% in 24 hours, +8.3% in 7 days, with a market cap surging to $20.8 billion ranking 11th, surpassing the previous high of 82.43 and hitting a new peak.
The core is buybacks. Hyperliquid's assistance fund uses protocol fees to buy HYPE on the open market for burn. Perpetual trading volume exploded in August and September, fee income far exceeding the average, pushing the buyback-to-unlock ratio to skyrocket. In September, equity perps (stock perpetuals) launched, opening another revenue stream, and HyperEVM is still attracting builders. DEX 24-hour trading volume is $5.6 billion, futures open interest is $12.9 billion, this scale is not just air.
But core contributors hold about 23.8% of supply in linear unlocks, about 9.92 million HYPE entering circulation monthly, which at $94 equates to $934 million monthly selling pressure. The assistance fund can cover this only if fees remain high; once volume returns to average, the ratio collapses.
RSI is neutral to hot, having pulled back from 91.7 in September. The monthly unlock of 934 million is a time bomb; to really hold steady depends on fees and traffic.
HYPE's game is buybacks versus unlocks; if fees drop, the myth breaks. Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$API3 top accounts are more bullish, but position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio is 1.3, position ratio is 0.82; the difference in the proportion of the two types of long positions has expanded by 1.08 percentage points. There are more bullish accounts, but a long position size advantage has not yet formed.$NEAR perpetual 50x long position, opened at 4.848, now at 5.109, floating profit +269.18%.
The logic is very simple: the 4.8 whole number support was tested multiple times without breaking, volume decreased, showing clear bottom characteristics. Finally waited for a bullish breakout candle to go long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 4.7. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a pullback.
Trailing stop moved up to 4.9 to lock in profits. If volume breaks above 5.3, can hold for more.
$SOL $SNDK #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Nvidia's market value is approaching $6 trillion. Not long ago, it was around $5 trillion, but now it has increased by nearly $1 trillion in a short period. The speed of wealth expansion is truly astonishing. The AI infrastructure boom continues to drive up tech stock valuations, but the question is becoming increasingly clear: 📈 how much longer can the AI sector rise? 📉 Can US stocks really keep rising? 🔥 If AI tech stocks experience a sharp correction, will funds revisit assets like Bitcoin? In contrast, BTC is currently fluctuating between $85,000 and $87,000, and this contrast has made me reconsider: has Bitcoin really bottomed out? The higher the market, the more FOMO is likely to occur. But I still don't want to chase at high levels out of fear of missing out. If BTC breaks through $90,000 afterward, or even continues to challenge $100,000–$120,000, it would certainly be tempting; But until the trend is truly confirmed, I prefer to remain patient. The crazier the AI frenzy, the more wary we need to be about overheated market sentiment. Opportunities never happen more than once; what truly matters is not losing your trading rhythm because of FOMO #BTC #Bitcoin #NVIDIA #AI #Crypto #USStocks #OKXNOW #DailyOrbit$ZRO perpetual 20x long position, opened at 1.9868, now at 2.2713, floating profit +286.39%.
After testing the bottom and stabilizing around 1.98, it directly made a violent surge. I followed the trend to go long, setting a stop loss below 1.95. The 20x leverage position was very small, the movement was much stronger than expected, it literally rocketed up, the percentage multiplied by more than 2.8 times!
Moved the stop loss up to 2.2, the rest depends on whether it can break 2.4.
$ETH $ZEC #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 BTC is still hovering above 80,000, and listed companies have already started scrambling to stock up.
Last Monday, Strive bought 2,000 BTC in one go, spending $169 million, and now holds 29,462 BTC.
What's even more interesting is that they themselves said:
As long as BTC stays below $100,000, they want to continue increasing their BTC exposure.
On the other hand, Strategy is also still buying, now having accumulated 848,000 BTC.
So now I increasingly feel:
Whether above 80,000 is expensive or not, retail investors are still arguing.
Some companies have already started treating "anything below 100,000 is inventory" for their balance sheets.
This is what I find the most interesting about BTC going forward. $BTC $SAND perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.07426, currently 0.06581, floating profit +568.94%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 0.074 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was selling pressure. After confirming the top was valid, I decisively shorted on the bearish candle. Using 50x leverage, position size pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +568.94%, and the trailing stop has been moved to 0.068. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$ETH $BTC #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC There's no need to get too excited these past couple of days; it's unlikely there will be any particularly big moves.
On September 29, Strategy's affiliated wallets transferred 3,568 $BTC. Many people saw this number and their first reaction was: is this a sign they're preparing to sell and crash the market?
But don't jump to conclusions just yet.
From the current situation, these BTC were only moved between Strategy's own affiliated wallets, with the overall holdings still maintained at about 847,000 BTC. No large BTC inflows to exchanges were detected that day.
So it looks more like internal wallet adjustments and inventory organization rather than actual selling.
In fact, investing is like this; often there isn't a big exciting market every day. These past few days might seem uneventful, which some may find boring, but investing is like life itself—there will always be long and dull stretches.
What really deserves caution is whether these BTC will later move from company wallets into exchanges.
Moving between wallets doesn't mean selling; only when the flow of funds changes should you be more alert.
So there's no need to scare yourself over the transfer of 3,568 BTC. Observe first, don't rush to create stories for the market.
Sometimes, nothing happening is the most important information of all.😎
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 🚀 $PONS: Don't just focus on Meme hype; what might be more worth watching is the "token issuance toll station"
From the frenzy to the pullback in this round of Robinhood Chain, what truly remains depends on whether the platform can continuously generate revenue.
Pons is one of the mainstream launch platforms on the chain. In early September, daily fees once approached $6 million, while Robinhood Chain DEX's weekly trading volume surged to $12.4 billion during the same period.
More importantly, its revenue buyback mechanism: a portion of protocol income is used to buy back and burn PONS tokens. Public data previously showed that over 28% of the supply has been burned.
Coupled with Robinhood's ongoing expansion of Chain, tokenized assets, and trading products, the ecosystem's activity level remains worth attention.
So this time, it's not about "who's the next Meme," but whether the flywheel of a hotter ecosystem → more trading → higher protocol income → stronger buyback and burn can continue.
⚠️ $PONS is not the official Robinhood token. Meme/Launchpad volatility is extreme. This is for personal research sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. $MINA This short position has basically caught the main downtrend. After opening near 0.16127, the price didn't give a decent rebound and directly dropped all the way to around 0.123, with unrealized profit already reaching 4.72 times. Compared to just looking at profits, I'm more concerned that this decline barely disrupted the bearish momentum.
On the 1-hour chart, the price has continuously weakened from the high of 0.17127, with each rebound lower than the previous one; the 15-minute chart also grinds down near the lows, with 0.12331 repeatedly tested. After the volume-driven drop, the MACD remains below the zero line, indicating bears still hold the initiative for now.
However, the KDJ is already pressed very low, and 0.1228 is a newly formed low. Chasing shorts further down has less cost-effectiveness than before. The current position can protect profits. If 0.1228 continues to break, the weakness may extend; but if it quickly recovers near 0.130, be cautious of a potential oversold rebound. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 "Divergence Week: BTC Eyes a Pullback, ENA and Others Strengthen, ARB Watches 0.205"
$BTC is around 86500, up about 4.2% for the week, with 90000 becoming a hot topic. VanEck is bullish on its market share expansion, with spot ETF funds flowing back in, but ETH is still flowing out, indicating the recovery is not a broad-based resonance. After a morning surge, the first pullback is the real test. If the pullback is quickly recovered, the continuation of the rise is worth looking forward to; if the rebound drags, chasing highs can easily become passive. The outlook can be cautiously optimistic, but avoid ignoring volatility with high leverage.
$ENA has not shown the same strength. It has been almost flat in 24 hours, with the weekly chart still down about 4%. Past strength does not guarantee it will lead this round. If the market continues to warm up and it remains sluggish, expectations should be reassessed. Waiting for it to strengthen proactively is less stressful than guessing its start every day.
$ARB is near 0.204, with a daily range of about 0.1984–0.2050, close to the upper boundary. This level is worth monitoring, but a single-day high does not equal strong resistance. Only a breakthrough above 0.205 followed by continued advance counts as new progress in the short term; prematurely declaring a breakout at the first sign can lead to misjudgment.
Overall, BTC focuses on the quality of the pullback, ENA and others show signs of strengthening, and ARB watches the follow-up after 0.205. In a divergence week, leaving room for flexibility is more important than making predictions.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 🚨 A major market move is coming?!
The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday. The focus is not on whether to raise interest rates, but on how much internal disagreement there is about future policy. Currently, the dollar is relatively strong, the 10-year US Treasury yield once approached 5.3%, and the 30-year yield even surged near 5.7%, putting clear pressure on risk assets.
$BTC is currently around 85,800, repeatedly testing 87,000 unsuccessfully, with support first seen near 84,500 below.
$ETH is about 2,680, continuing to follow Bitcoin;
$SOL is about 121, still showing short-term volatility;
$OKB is to be watched for fund reactions after the ecosystem conference.
Additionally, the latest data shows that the spot BTC ETF in US stock after-hours settlement had a net outflow of about $188 million in a single day, indicating that the capital flow is not as strong as expected for now.
Before the minutes come out, don't rush to chase the direction; the real volatility may come after the data is released.👀
#BTC #ETH #SOL #OKB #FederalReserveMinutes #USTreasuryYieldsThe market has been sideways all day, but long funds have already started to withdraw early, with cumulative losses exceeding $18 million! Yesterday, smart money long positions were about $282 million, but today they've dropped to $264 million. Meanwhile: 🔻 Number of long positions: 899 → 856 🔻 Average long cost: 1014 → 994 What does this mean? Most notably, the price hasn't dropped significantly, bullsTuesday fluctuating continuing inability to break out consolidating just step away from 90k - but that step needs spot. *BTC 85583 -0.15% slight rebound after short-term bottom test RSI6 66.32 near overbought KDJ upward MACD turning red short-term rebound momentum releasing support 84937 resistance 86600 range-bound key resistance not yet broken:* - 84937 support = second test yesterday you held, 86600 resistance = 86500-86700 first resistance cluster. Fourth attempt 87000 blocked still - RSI 66BTC is currently around 85,900, and it has failed to break through the 87,000 level again; today marks the fourth attempt. The market is focused on the resistance zone between 87,000 and 87,200, which has consistently pushed prices back every time it’s touched. On the funding side, there is some good news: the spot ETF has been seeing net inflows recently, and Strategy has bought 334 BTC, indicating institutional support. However, the overhead supply is too heavy, and the ETF volume alone isn’t enough to break through.
ETH is even more conflicted. It’s hovering above 2,700, but sell orders outweigh buy orders on the order book, with active selling dominating. Retail traders hold 72% long positions, which is a scary level of crowding. Interestingly, open interest on ETH at Hyperliquid has even surpassed BTC, showing that leveraged funds are heavily concentrated on ETH. If the direction is chosen wrong, the liquidation risk is even greater than BTC.
From a macro perspective, U.S. Treasury yields remain high, with the 30-year at 5.69%, the highest since 2002. In this environment, risk assets struggle to rally; a strong dollar weakens crypto.
My view remains unchanged: don’t chase above 86,000; wait for a real volume breakout and a stable hold above 87,000. ETH at 2,700 is stuck in the middle; chasing positions here is just giving away money. Control your impulses. $BTC $ETH $SOL OKX $25 Billion Valuation Financing Secured, Strategic New Phase Behind OKB's Surge
On October 6, the crypto market received another major announcement. According to Bloomberg, the globally renowned crypto exchange OKX has completed a new round of financing with a post-investment valuation reaching $25 billion. This round features a prestigious lineup of investors, including industry leaders like Circle and Ripple, fully demonstrating the strong confidence of traditional finance and crypto giants in OKX's future development.
Stimulated by this positive news, the price of OKX's platform token OKB surged sharply, with the market reacting swiftly and enthusiastically. This rally is not only a direct response to the successful financing but also reflects the market's strong expectation for a revaluation of OKX's ecosystem value.
Meanwhile, at today's OKX NOW event, the official team further released strategic signals. Star clearly stated that OKX will continue to fully promote the deep application of AI technology in trading, risk control, and user experience, aiming to build an around-the-clock, intelligent next-generation trading market. From financing endorsement to technological deployment, OKX is accelerating the construction of its moat in the crypto world, and as the core asset of the ecosystem, OKB's long-term value potential is also opening up. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Day 45 of the $ZEC short. Still holding. 📉
From 1695 → 1330, momentum remains weak. 1350–1420 is key resistance; 1276 is the major support, with 1100 in focus if it breaks.
No blind bottom-fishing—patience first. #OKXNOW:24x7MarketEra #US30YYieldTops5.7% #FedSeptemberMinutes Strive's recent buying spree is not just about institutional purchases, but about its entry points. From 9.28 to 10.2, it spent $169 million to acquire 2,000 BTC at an average price of 84,422, bringing its total holdings to 29,462 BTC. During the market's oscillation around the 85,000 resistance level, it kept accumulating, showing that long-term capital ignores short-term fluctuations.
There is support on the funding side: ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive weeks, and whale selling pressure has weakened. ETFs and listed companies are simultaneously hoarding coins, and old holders have not fled. The market is not short of buyers, but lacks the momentum to break above the 85,000 resistance.
⚠️ Risk warning: Strive's funds are leveraged, relying on SATA preferred shares and warrants to finance coin accumulation; this is not idle money deployment.
Key points to watch going forward: whether Strive continues to increase its holdings and whether other coin-hoarding companies follow suit. Multiple institutions continue to accumulate above 80,000 + ETFs keep flowing in, which will further tighten circulating supply.
The overall trend is bullish, with an advantage when selling pressure weakens. Whether the trend can open up depends on BTC breaking through 85,000–87,000.
If institutions keep accumulating heavily, is there a chance for a short squeeze?
⚠️ Market review, not trading advice.Daily Crypto Talk｜SOL 4H Range Consolidation, Breakout Still Awaiting Volume Confirmation
As of 10-06 23:47 (Beijing Time), Binance Spot SOL/USDT at 121.06, 24H +1.30%. Daily highs and lows are rising, 4H range consolidation.
Resistance at 121.93—122.25, 122.78—123.1; Support at 120.3—120.61, 119.37—119.68.
[Conditional Trading Plan]
Direction: Long; After confirmation, enter limit order at 120.45, stop loss at 119.37, take profit at 122.25 USDT; planned risk-reward ratio 1.66:1 (excluding fees).
Trigger: 1H close stabilizes above 4H MA20 support zone, when price retraces to 120.30-120.61 range, volume must be no less than 1.2 times the 4H average volume before placing order. After confirmation, only wait with this limit entry price, do not chase price; invalid if stop loss is hit or no execution within 8 hours from data time.
Attached chart includes complete indicator analysis. For technical analysis only, not investment advice.Using on-exchange leverage, whether it's staking loans on exchanges or perpetual contracts, as long as you don't close the position, making money is just a process, and losing everything is the outcome. From 2023 to 2025, I used staking loans on exchanges, staking BTC and ETH to borrow USDT to go all-in on altcoins and ETH. I kept the loan-to-value ratio below 40%, which is considered low leverage, but then encountered the big negative impact of Trump's tariff liberation day on April 1.
BTC dropped to 74,000, and ETH fell even more sharply, from over 4,000 down to around 1,400. My loan-to-value ratio kept rising, and I couldn't afford to be liquidated and go bankrupt, so I cut losses on some ETH around 1,500 to repay USDT and reduce the liquidation risk. Fortunately, I held through the dip and then saw a big surge with BTC at 126,000 and ETH at 4,900.
But I was still shaken; that event really scared me. Since then, I absolutely refuse to use on-exchange leverage. Even if I use leverage, I use off-exchange leverage. Of course, it's best not to borrow money or use leverage at all. Too many people have died from high leverage, losing everything on the road to break even. It's better to be steady.🚀 Currently, the market values SpaceX at about $2.3 trillion, while Tesla is at about $1.2 trillion. Interestingly, SpaceX's revenue is currently only about one-sixth of Tesla's. If SpaceX's valuation doubles again, it could gradually approach Nvidia's current market value of about $5 trillion. Here's the question: Are the long-term growth expectations of Starlink + Starship really enough to support such a high valuation? It's not surprising that the market is willing to price the future in advance. Starlink's global expansion, satellite internet commercialization, and Starship's future large-scale launches could all open up new growth opportunities. But the higher the valuation, the greater the demand for future deliveries. So what really matters now is not just whether SpaceX can continue to tell a bigger growth story, but whether 📌 revenue growth can keep pace with valuation expansion. 📌 Can Starlink continue to scale up commercialization? 📌 Can Starship's technology and commercial progress meet market expectations? As for my trade: Currently, my short position has not triggered a stop-loss effect. Since the trading plan is not disrupted, I will continue to follow the rules and not change my strategy prematurely due to short-term volatility. In the end, the market will give the answer. Valuation can trade expectations in advance, but price ultimately needs to be verified by fundamentalsMid-term observation on October 6: US Treasury yields "grind at high levels," L2 cross-chain welcomes an "atomic moment"
At noon on October 6, the market's attention was pulled by two forces: on one side, the "persistent high fever" of US Treasury yields at the macro level; on the other, a technical breakthrough in the Ethereum ecosystem.
Regarding US Treasuries, Sent pointed out that the rise in yields aligns with the global trend. Here, a misconception needs correction: the rise in long-term rates cannot be simply attributed to "the Fed planning more rate hikes." According to the New York Fed's term premium model, yields consist of "short-term interest rate expectations" and "term premium." The latter is investors' risk compensation for uncertainties like long-term inflation and bond supply. Even if rate hike expectations cool down, as long as the market doubts long-term uncertainties, the term premium will support long-term bond yields staying high. This is the deeper logic behind the current "grinding at high levels."
The crypto field is witnessing a technical milestone. The ETH mainnet completed the first L1→L2 atomic cross-chain transaction, and EEZ achieved "atomic synchronous composability." This means L1 and L2 are no longer isolated; cross-layer interaction and DeFi composability can be synchronously implemented. As a mid-term observer, I believe this move is of great technical significance, solving the pain point of liquidity fragmentation. However, its short-term impact on coin price is limited, serving more as a foundation for long-term value.
Bitcoin is currently oscillating around 85,500, with the resistance zone at 86,500-87,000 still requiring volume breakout. Before macro liquidity and regulatory details become fully clear, patience is advised to wait for support confirmation. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Current market trends, which coins will profit in the future and are worth paying attention to?
Current market data and future trends show that funds are flowing from mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to infrastructure projects with actual revenue, institutional backing, and clear value capture mechanisms.
Core trends and beneficiaries
RWA (Real World Asset Tokenization)
· Core logic: Large-scale on-chain of traditional financial assets requires compliant issuance, trading, and settlement infrastructure. $LINK, as the leading oracle, almost monopolizes reliable data on-chain; Standard Chartered Bank sets a 2030 target price of $200 for it; $UNI has handled about 60% of tokenized stock DEX trading volume, with a stable buyback and burn rate of 3-4% after fee switch activation; $AAVE allows tokenized stocks as collateral for lending, with a 2030 target price of $3,500 from Standard Chartered; ONDO is the leader in tokenized US Treasury bonds (scale about $2.1 billion), with high certainty of benefits.
AI and AI Agents:
· Core logic: AI agents require autonomous payment, data acquisition, and computing resources. TAO is the leading decentralized AI model marketplace, listed as a top choice by multiple institutions; VVV provides uncensored AI services, with annual revenue exceeding $100 million, and automatically uses $2-10 of subscription revenue for buyback and burn of VVV.
Risk Warning
· Macro risks: Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical issues, etc., may still trigger a comprehensive market correction.
· Unlocking sell pressure: Many projects still have large amounts of tokens to be unlocked; attention should be paid to their release schedules. Mid-term intelligence guy view correct - foundation improving, not full bull yet. *Most comforting signal this week not whether price risen but sell pressure easing:* - Momentum whales moving coins to exchanges retreated old chips no longer wildly distributed potential dump shrinking = exactly 2,131 +2,172 BTC outflows you saw moving away from exchanges, not deposits. Whale selling pressure weakens = downside locked - More important ETF side net inflows three consecutive weeks traditional funds #US long-term Treasury yields hit new highs again, 30-year yield approaches 5.7% The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.70%, the highest since 2002.
This is not just a spectacle for the crypto community. US Treasury yields are the global asset pricing anchor; when they rise, it means risk-free returns increase, motivating funds to move from risk assets to the bond market. Bank of America strategist Hartnett put it bluntly: without a peak in the dollar and a drop in long-term yields, risk assets will struggle to recover.
Interestingly, last Friday's nonfarm payroll data was actually disappointing, with an increase of only 29,000, far below expectations. Normally, this would be positive for bonds, but yields rose instead of falling. Why? The ISM Services Price Index soared to 74, a four-year high, with fuel costs and tariff pressures passing through to end prices. The market understands that while employment is weak, inflation is not dead.
BMO fixed income chief directly stated that a 30-year yield breaking 6% is "inevitable," most likely in October. Another signal: the 10-year US Treasury yield has already surpassed the S&P 500 earnings yield, making bonds more attractive than stocks at the highest level in 25 years.
For BTC/ETH, macro pressure remains unresolved. Without a drop in US Treasury yields, risk appetite will struggle to truly recover. At this level, don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for signals that yields have peaked before acting. Control your impulses. $BTC $ETH Today I’m holding two perpetual positions: 🔵$ETH USDT Long 50x Entry: $2,713.01 | Mark: $2,712.62 Margin: $60.87 | Unrealized PnL: -$0.43 🟢$DOGE USDT Long 10x Entry: $0.09465 | Mark: $0.09488 Margin: $185.77 | Unrealized PnL: +$4.50 Overall, the positions are slightly profitable, but the 50x ETH leverage remains the biggest risk. A small move against the position can quickly amplify losses. For now: strict risk control, clear stop-loss levels, and no unnecessary overexposure. Let price confirm📊 BTC, ETH & ZEC Market Outlook
$BTC has been repeatedly testing the lower range before pushing higher, but trading volume still hasn’t fully confirmed the move. The previous resistance level has now turned into support, and holding above it is key for the uptrend to continue. #DailyOrbit October 6 Midday Crypto Market Log
Today at midday, US regulators released significant signals. The CFTC officially proposed establishing a regulatory framework for leveraged trading of crypto assets, intending to require retail leveraged trading to be intermediated by FCMs, and jointly proposed a regulatory plan with the SEC, marking a new stage of rule-based US crypto regulation. Although the Clarity Act has been stalled, administrative rules are advancing rapidly to clarify the boundary of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC.
On the market side, Fundstrat's Tom Lee pointed out that crypto and tech stocks are strengthening in sync, reflecting the market's active pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift toward easing. Improved liquidity combined with a clearer regulatory framework may provide support for BTC and other mainstream assets. Currently, BTC is in a critical window period, requiring close attention to the pace of regulatory detail implementation and changes in macro liquidity. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $ZEC's current quietness is even more chilling than a crash.
An extremely unusual move just appeared on-chain: a newly created wallet address withdrew 7,166 ZEC from Coinbase in one go within the past 12 hours.
A new wallet created at this point withdrawing such a large amount—tell me, is it for long-term holding or preparing to dump at some point?
At the same time, Samson Mow fired directly, saying Zcash's market cap is ridiculously high and the risk of mean reversion is approaching.
This is not retail investors shouting; this is a veteran insider openly warning.
In the past 12 hours, over $68 million worth of ZEC liquidations occurred across the network, with short liquidations exceeding $66 million. The shorts have just been bloodied.
But have you thought about who is still holding after the shorts are wiped out?
The bulls now feel they have won, but once the price can't hold the 1280 to 1330 range, the stampede will be on themselves.
The macro environment isn't helping either.
US long-term Treasury yields are rising, Bitcoin is stuck around 86000 and can't break through, the whole market is waiting for the Fed's meeting minutes, and risk appetite is contracting.
I have neither added to my position nor closed it.
This position doesn't require rushing; what it needs is patience.
There is no feast that never ends, but when the party ends, the ones paying the bill often don't even realize they are the ones paying.
$BTC $ETH
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 The short position on $BTC slipped away...
This short position only lost about 300 points.
Actually, I wanted to wait until it broke above 8.7 to short, but unfortunately, I didn't get the chance; it couldn't even break 8.67.
At 8.65, it dropped back to 8.64, and fearing I might miss the short, I chased a bit.
Then it pushed up a bit, but only to around 8.66...
Why didn't I hold on longer?
Mainly because the drop was too slow, too dragging; what I wanted was a waterfall-type drop, where it plunges straight down, losing 1000 points at once...