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The China-US summit has not yet concluded, but risk markets have already fallen in advance. The issue is not only with crude oil price fluctuations! Clearly, the market has not completely shaken off the shadow of interest rate hikes! The probability of a rate hike in October has surged to 75.3%, and the market has begun to price in an October rate hike. The factors driving the increase in the rate hike probability are not only energy prices but also the endogenous inflation problem in the US. Brent crude has fallen significantly this week, especially after breaking below $100. The market experienced a strong short-term rebound due to decompression, but bond yields have not declined significantly. This raises a key issue: current inflation cannot be effectively weakened by energy prices alone. So far, US Treasury yields for 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds have hit new highs since 2007. US Treasuries are being mercilessly sold off. Considering Brent crude, when international crude oil fell to $99, long-term bond yields did not weaken but instead hit new highs. This means that the US inflation problem is not solely caused by crude oil prices. The fact that long-term yields do not fall with crude oil prices means the market's inflation concerns include endogenous inflation issues beyond the oil shock. The market is beginning to worry that even if oil prices fall in the future, inflation will remain sticky. Coupled with frequent signals from Federal Reserve officials about continuing rate hikes, these two factors have directly pushed the probability of an October rate hike above 70%, and the market has started to preliminarily price in an October rate hike. #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ After last week's September rate hike, the market rebounded. Many friends believe the impact of rate hikes on risk assets is weak, even concluding a rate hike bull narrative