大魔的财富之路
大魔的财富之路
大魔社区创始人，绿洲大学联合创始人，okx2024年交易大赛华语第二。
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Will there be an interest rate hike in October?
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have successively released the minutes of their September monetary policy meetings. Both central banks chose to raise interest rates in September, mainly due to concerns about inflation rebounding from rising energy prices. However, after the meetings, U.S. nonfarm payroll data came in much weaker than expected, and the market quickly lowered its expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. Currently, the probability of a rate hike in October is only 17%, which is completely different from the market environment at the time of the September meeting. These minutes represent an "old meeting, new pricing" scenario, which can easily trigger market volatility. Key points to watch in the Fed minutes The minutes will reveal the real disagreements and concerns among committee members at the September meeting. 1. Focus on how many members support further rate hikes and whether there is a general belief that inflation risks remain, with service sector inflation being a core concern. 2. Although the September meeting was still hawkish, employment has clearly weakened since then, and the market will compare whether the previous judgments are out of sync with the latest economic data. 3. If the minutes' wording is clearly hawkish, it will temporarily push up U.S. Treasury yields and suppress risk assets; if they mention economic downturn and employment slowdown risks extensively, the market will interpret this as dovish, benefiting stocks and crypto assets. 4. The current market focus has shifted from "whether to raise rates" to whether there is still a possibility of a rate hike at the remaining December meeting this year. Key points to watch in the ECB minutes 1. The Eurozone is also affected by rising oil prices, showing signs of inflation rebound, but the Eurozone economy is weak, facing stagflation pressure. 2. Pay attention to divisions within the Governing Council: some members worry that energy prices are pushing up inflation and advocate continuing rate hikes; others are concerned about...
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大魔的财富之路
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% In September, the US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wage growth weakened simultaneously, and the labor market significantly cooled down, marking a major disappointment in this round of employment data.
This data directly undermines the core support for the Federal Reserve's rate hike in October. The previously high probability of a rate hike priced in by the market will be quickly downgraded, and the rate hike expectations will be further delayed. Long-term US Treasury yields are likely to face downward pressure, the US dollar weakens, bringing macro-level benefits to risk assets.
However, the market showed a divergence from expectations. Before the nonfarm data release, BTC had already surged past 87000 in advance, but after the data was published, it quickly retreated, resulting in a profit-taking rally. The core reason is that the prior rise had already priced in the expectation of weakening employment, combined with a large amount of profit-taking near 87000, triggering short-term selling pressure and causing a double whammy for bulls and bears.
The underlying driving force of this rally comes from continuous capital inflows into spot ETFs and institutional accumulation at low levels. The nonfarm data is merely a catalyst accelerating the breakout, not the starting point of the rally. In the short term, the macro environment is warming up, but high-level profit-taking pressure cannot be ignored. Chasing highs carries significant risk, and the market is prone to violent fluctuations.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
+3,551.42%
Snapshot at Oct 02, 2026, 23:22
#Strategy再购BTC, multiple treasury funds increase holdings simultaneously. Strategy raised funds through equity issuance this round, spending about $142.7 million to purchase 1,665 BTC, bringing total holdings to 847,000 BTC, remaining the largest publicly listed company Bitcoin holder worldwide. Not just it alone, similar treasury companies like Strive and BitMine are also increasing assets simultaneously; the latter continues dollar-cost averaging Ethereum. The consensus of listed companies collectively hoarding coins has formed again.
A key background for this round of collective accumulation is the prior price recovery, with many companies' holdings moving out of unrealized losses, balance sheets repaired, and financing windows reopened. The funds for these companies' coin purchases mostly come from equity financing, not idle cash, essentially leveraging the US stock capital market to continuously provide incremental buying pressure for crypto assets.
For the market, corporate treasuries represent long-term capital; after buying, they generally do not sell in the short term, which can lock up some circulating supply, reduce market selling pressure, and support market sentiment. But objectively, it is not a guarantee of steady price increase. This model heavily depends on the financing environment; if coin prices plunge deeply, companies face large unrealized losses, subsequent equity financing will be hindered, purchase plans will stall, or even forced sell-offs may occur.
This is a structural positive, indicating more and more listed companies are incorporating crypto assets into their asset reserves. However, treasury accumulation is a lagging signal, generally occurring during market recovery phases, and should not be directly used as a basis for short-term bullish trades.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT was submitted by Republican senators on September 30 and is currently just a Senate proposal, not yet voted into law. The core idea is to standardize tax rules for crypto assets, addressing long-standing ambiguous tax issues. It is a certainty bill long awaited by the industry, overall neutral to slightly friendly, but with pros and cons.
✅ Positive aspects
Under current rules, crypto assets are taxed as property, so even using stablecoins to buy things or pay small Gas fees triggers taxable events, making tax reporting extremely complicated.
1. Ordinary users using compliant stablecoins for daily consumption will no longer incur capital gains tax (traders and institutions are not exempt).
2. On-chain Gas fees under $10 per transaction are exempt from taxable recognition, solving the tedious tax reporting problem caused by frequent retail interactions.
3. Taxes do not have to be calculated immediately upon receiving rewards; income is recognized only when sold for cash, avoiding the issue of "paper gains without cash to pay taxes."
4. Crypto lending will directly follow traditional securities lending tax rules; traders can choose mark-to-market accounting, and foreign investors have a safe harbor rule, facilitating institutional entry.
⚠️ Negative constraints
The bill extends the US stock wash sale rule to crypto assets. If you sell crypto at a loss and buy back the same asset within 30 days before or after, that loss cannot be used to offset taxes, effectively eliminating the tax loss harvesting strategy commonly used by traders, which significantly impacts short-term high-frequency traders. $BTC $ETH
Brothers, this new SEC proposal is worth paying close attention to.
As long as the relevant regulatory conditions are met, investment advisors and funds will be able to use a brand-new crypto asset custody solution, which can be entrusted to compliant state trust companies for custody, and under certain circumstances, institutional self-custody is also supported.
This essentially clears a major obstacle for institutional capital entry and is a very critical foundation. Previously, many traditional asset managers wanted to enter crypto, but the biggest bottleneck was custody. Once this set of rules is implemented, a large number of RIAs will be able to legally allocate crypto assets to high-net-worth clients.
This is a clear signal that crypto assets are gradually moving from niche alternative investments into the traditional financial system, which is a medium- to long-term positive.
But a reminder: this is still just a proposal stage, not officially effective yet, and there is still a review period before final implementation, so uncertainties remain. Do not blindly enter the market now; it is safer to remain cautious at this stage.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制
+3,439.40%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 23:26
Brothers, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has directly dropped to only 17%, and the market is no longer afraid of a rate hike.
Before the non-farm payrolls were released, everyone was still holding their breath, worried that the Fed would raise rates again. But with this employment data released, the entire interest rate market expectations have changed dramatically.
The US added only 29,000 non-farm jobs in September, far below market expectations, and the unemployment rate simultaneously rose to 4.2%.
According to CME FedWatch, the current probability of maintaining the rate in October has reached 83%, and the probability of a rate hike has sharply fallen from the previous 28% to 17%.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 Nonfarm payroll data weakened significantly, which should have lowered U.S. Treasury yields, but the market showed an abnormal reversal. After a brief decline, the 10-year Treasury yield rebounded and rose again, indicating that the core contradiction of long-term rates is no longer about whether the Fed raises rates once.
Short-term rates fell following rate hike expectations, while long-term yields are driven by fiscal factors, supply and demand, and term premiums. The U.S. fiscal deficit remains high, with the government continuously issuing large amounts of long-term bonds, leading to an oversupply of bonds. Overseas long-term funds are continuously reducing holdings, so to attract buyers, higher yield compensation must be offered. Coupled with Middle East geopolitical risks pushing up energy prices, market concerns about long-term inflation have not dissipated, further driving up term premiums.
This means the financial environment is still tightening passively. High long-term bond yields suppress valuations of tech and growth stocks, while also creating sustained upward pressure on stocks, gold, and crypto assets. Even if the Fed pauses rate hikes, as long as long-term bond yields remain high, risk assets will struggle to start a sustained major rally.
The market has now entered a critical phase of divergence: short-term rate hike alarms are lifted, but long-term rate pressure from fiscal stress remains. The key focus going forward is the mid-October CPI data and the results of the primary market Treasury auctions. If inflation rebounds or long-term bond auctions cool off, long-term yields will continue to rise. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
+3,438.75%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 23:13
#Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving Claude's AI company Anthropic is rushing to list on the US stock market, planning to start roadshows as early as November and strive to complete the listing before Thanksgiving. If successful, it is expected to become the largest IPO in US stock market history, with a market valuation estimated at 1.8–2 trillion USD, making it the world's first publicly listed cutting-edge large model company.
The biggest highlight of this round of listing is to beat OpenAI to the punch. The latter has already postponed its listing plans, and Anthropic's early entry into the secondary market effectively sets a public market valuation benchmark for the entire generative AI sector. The company focuses on enterprise large models and code assistant business, with impressive revenue growth, but huge capital expenditure on computing power means it is still in a continuous loss phase, with a long profit realization cycle.
The huge fundraising is mainly used to purchase AI computing power and expand data centers, which is a long-term benefit to Nvidia and other computing power supply chains. However, risks under high valuation cannot be ignored; if commercialization growth falls short of expectations, valuation could easily be slashed. At the same time, AI regulation and model security controversies will also cause disturbances to subsequent stock prices.
In the short term, it will boost sentiment in the US AI stock sector, and funds will reassess similar AI targets. The core focus going forward is the issuance pricing and institutional subscription enthusiasm, which directly determines whether this round of AI market momentum can continue.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
+3,439.51%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 22:55
After the non-farm payroll data was released, the interest rate market immediately underwent a repricing of expectations.
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October dropped to 17%, whereas just a week ago, this expectation was as high as 36%. Data from Binance's prediction platform is similar, with the market now generally betting that the Fed will hold steady this time.
The root cause of the rapid shift in expectations is the significantly disappointing non-farm report. U.S. non-farm employment in September increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Meanwhile, employment data for July and August was revised down by a total of 60,000, and the year-over-year wage growth slowed to 3.0%, multiple signals jointly confirming a clear cooling in the labor market.
Many Federal Reserve officials have recently expressed cautious views, advocating to wait for subsequent inflation indicators and not rush to raise rates again in October. This means that the short-term rate hike pressure faced by U.S. stocks and crypto assets has eased.
However, this is only a temporary risk relief and does not signify the start of an easing cycle. The most critical market focus going forward is the CPI inflation data to be released in mid-October. If inflation rebounds, rate hike expectations could heat up again at any time. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
+3,425.00%
Snapshot at Oct 03, 2026, 22:44
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT Core Beneficial Provisions
1. Compliant USD stablecoins used for everyday goods consumption will no longer recognize capital gains or losses, applicable only to ordinary users; traders and market makers do not enjoy this exemption.
2. On-chain gas fees under $10 per transaction are exempt from taxable recognition, solving the tax reporting difficulties for retail users' daily interactions.
3. Clear taxation timing for staking and mining income; asset lending follows traditional securities lending tax treatment; traders can opt for mark-to-market accounting; a safe harbor is also set for foreign investors.
Key Restrictive Provisions with Negative Impact
The bill extends the US stock market's Wash Sale rule to crypto assets.
That is, if a loss is realized by selling and the same type of crypto asset is repurchased shortly after, that loss cannot be used to offset taxes, directly invalidating many tax loss harvesting strategies commonly used by traders, imposing constraints on high-frequency traders.
Market Interpretation
Overall, it is neutral to slightly positive, not a tax tightening but setting rules for the industry, reducing friction for ordinary users using stablecoins for payments, benefiting the payment stablecoin sector. However, the implementation of the wash sale rule will compress the tax optimization space for short-term traders.
The bill still has a long review process before taking effect; even if passed smoothly, most provisions will not be officially implemented until 2027, so it will not directly change current market trading in the short term. It is a mid-to-long-term institutional benefit with limited short-term market stimulus. $BTC $ETH