TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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WTI crude oil has just broken through the $100 mark again, mainly due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Recently, oil tankers have been repeatedly attacked, for example:
Indian Shipping Minister Sonowal stated that on October 16, MT ST 3 was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, and all 15 Indian crew members on board were safe and unharmed.
The good news is that VLCC freight rates from the Gulf of Oman to China have fallen about 7.7% from their peak, and about 400 commercial ships have passed through the strait in the past seven days. During the same period, the US military assisted Gulf partners in transporting over 100 million barrels of crude oil.
Overall, crude oil is unlikely to spike sharply but will continue to advance steadily. Against the backdrop of unresolved high oil prices, a decline in inflation is nothing but wishful thinking, and a major bull market in US stocks is naturally out of the question.
Currently, we are still waiting for the easing signals after bad news no longer causes risk markets to fall. Once negative news stops causing declines, even a little positive news will trigger a rebound. At present, the lifting of sanctions on Russia has yet to show any effect. $CL
The viral flying flip video of Tesla's newly released Roadster model is indeed stunning. At first glance, one might think it's an AI video, and this launch event scheduled before Tesla's Q3 earnings report on October 21 shows careful planning.
First, about this car: it matches Musk's usual pattern of delays, being released 9 years late, and it won't be available on the market until next year. Meanwhile, Tesla's existing models are aging and becoming outdated, urgently needing rapid product updates to maintain sales.
This car can't actually fly; instead, it is equipped with jet technology derived from SpaceX's Falcon rockets. Essentially, Musk has further integrated the technologies of his companies Tesla and SpaceX. Both sides have mature technologies, but combining them is very cool.
There are also rumors that Tesla's earnings call might reveal news of a merger between the two companies. However, as we analyzed during the Q2 earnings, a merger initiated when SPCX is priced high and TSLA is priced low would be optimal for Musk, but the current stock prices do not support this, so further adjustments on both sides may follow.
This new product launch won't affect the already closed Q3 earnings, but if the earnings report looks weak, the positive sentiment from this product launch could provide strong support and buffer against declines.
One more thing: this technology seems pretty useless in daily use. This is not a truly practical flying car. If it ejects randomly and falls, it could injure pedestrians. Perhaps the only use case is like a fighter jet's ejection seat? Ejecting to avoid danger when the brake pedal of the car behind breaks and can't stop?
PPI data has been released. Overall annual rate 6.3%, overall monthly rate 1.3%, core annual rate 5%, core monthly rate 0.7%. It's another disastrous data, even worse than yesterday's CPI. The sooner it dies, the sooner it will be reborn, so hurry up and drop. I'm in a hurry #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
TraderS | 缺德道人
Tonight's PPI overall annual rate is expected to be 5.3%, overall monthly rate 0.5%, core annual rate 4.4%, core monthly rate 0.3%.
Combined with last night's CPI data, it depends on whether today's announced values exceed expectations, especially the overall annual rate and core monthly rate.
If tonight's data continues to be hawkish, then we can expect a swift and decisive market move, a quick death and rebirth scenario.
If tonight's data unexpectedly leans dovish, then there will be some grinding; it might rebound a bit, but if there is no significant positive catalyst in between, the market will likely continue to decline next week, which will be even more painful.
But overall, the probability of continued decline is high, since the timing, pattern, and sentiment are not yet in place. Let's push through another week. These days, eat, drink, and rest as needed. By the way, it would have been great if it opened at 2049 this week; going home and only entering the garbage time now really feels like a waste of life.
Tonight's PPI overall annual rate is expected to be 5.3%, overall monthly rate 0.5%, core annual rate 4.4%, core monthly rate 0.3%.
Combined with last night's CPI data, it depends on whether today's announced values exceed expectations, especially the overall annual rate and core monthly rate.
If tonight's data continues to be hawkish, then we can expect a swift and decisive market move, a quick death and rebirth scenario.
If tonight's data unexpectedly leans dovish, then there will be some grinding; it might rebound a bit, but if there is no significant positive catalyst in between, the market will likely continue to decline next week, which will be even more painful.
But overall, the probability of continued decline is high, since the timing, pattern, and sentiment are not yet in place. Let's push through another week. These days, eat, drink, and rest as needed. By the way, it would have been great if it opened at 2049 this week; going home and only entering the garbage time now really feels like a waste of life.
Let's briefly talk about the corporate bond issue. Actually, on the 13th, before the CPI announcement on the 14th, CoreWeave notes had already started to decline, with yields soaring over 15%.
The relationship between CoreWeave and Nvidia has long been a mess, like a chaotic spiral where one foot steps on the other, a kind of evasive maneuver. So, what's the difference between these high-interest cycle bonds and the stablecoin cycle pledge lending crashes in the crypto world?
Moreover, with US Treasury yields so high recently, it's better to buy risk-free US Treasuries than corporate bonds. Although US Treasuries have been criticized for a long time, their credit is still much better than corporate bonds, especially the popular short-term 2-year and 10-year bonds.
In short, everyone knows AI is a bubble and will eventually burst, but there will always be greedy people. This kind of burst will probably be a series of targeted explosions. Even though it has dropped so much this time, it definitely doesn't mean it's over. There will be rebounds afterward, but the rebound lows may gradually decrease. Breaking down a little each time is definitely better than one big explosion.
TraderS | 缺德道人
Although the South Korean stock market triggered a circuit breaker, there are actually two pieces of good news today: one is that the probability of an interest rate hike in October has dropped again, and the other is that both short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields have fallen.
For a long time, the issues troubling the U.S. stock market, besides the aging themes and elevated valuations leading the market to focus on earnings expectations, have been the competition for liquidity among U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries, and corporate bonds.
Now, the decline in U.S. stocks will drive liquidity into U.S. Treasuries to ease the Treasury crisis, while gold, which is directly linked to interest rates, remains generally stable. Without a larger liquidity crisis, gold should maintain stability. Even if there is a short-term liquidity crunch causing a drop, the support from central bank gold purchases keeps it very safe, making it a suitable low-risk bottom-fishing asset.
Tonight's PPI data will most likely continue the trend of yesterday's CPI. Even if it unexpectedly comes in lower than expected, the positive impact will probably only trigger a small rebound and cannot reverse the downward trend. After this decline, it will likely take the FOMC decision combined with easing U.S.-Iran tensions and other positive factors to gradually calm the market, so patience is required. #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
Of course, during an expansion cycle flooded with liquidity, the more useless and harder to price something is, the higher it can be driven up; Wang Ning's POPMART follows this logic. But now that the interest rate hike cycle has just begun, POPMART has also come down from its high, so it's better to wait and see.
If the US really enters a recession and China enters deflation, then cash will become king. However, I don't think it will be that pessimistic; this wave still belongs to a normal correction after a high rise. Let's wait for APEC and G20 later.
TraderS | 缺德道人
Putting sentiment aside, isn't the current price of the three major memory stocks, especially Hynix, less attractive than Bitcoin? Even if big tech stocks fall further, they still have factories, workers, production lines, demand, orders, and financial reports. Their fundamentals are much stronger than Bitcoin's. But if you say it's just crypto sentiment, then there's nothing to do about it $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
Putting sentiment aside, isn't the current price of the three major memory stocks, especially Hynix, less attractive than Bitcoin? Even if big tech stocks fall further, they still have factories, workers, production lines, demand, orders, and financial reports. Their fundamentals are much stronger than Bitcoin's. But if you say it's just crypto sentiment, then there's nothing to do about it $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
TraderS | 缺德道人
Currently, BTC is indeed still very strong, but from a mechanism perspective, if the US and Korean stock markets continue to decline, it will inevitably lead to liquidation and margin replenishment demands. Once this action starts and triggers a stampede, a chain reaction of declines will follow.
The mechanism is here; I really don't know if it will be triggered, but if it were me, I would probably take advantage of BTC still being at 80k to sell and buy the tech stocks that are about to fall into a golden pit. From 80k to 100k is just a 25% increase, but if tech stocks fall into a deep pit, you might get a double return. This math problem should be clear to many. It's just uncertain whether the thin veil will be pierced.
Of course, if you say the strong get stronger and BTC is ready to double to 160k, that's also possible, but after all, it's a low-probability event. $BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
Currently, BTC is indeed still very strong, but from a mechanism perspective, if the US and Korean stock markets continue to decline, it will inevitably lead to liquidation and margin replenishment demands. Once this action starts and triggers a stampede, a chain reaction of declines will follow.
The mechanism is here; I really don't know if it will be triggered, but if it were me, I would probably take advantage of BTC still being at 80k to sell and buy the tech stocks that are about to fall into a golden pit. From 80k to 100k is just a 25% increase, but if tech stocks fall into a deep pit, you might get a double return. This math problem should be clear to many. It's just uncertain whether the thin veil will be pierced.
Of course, if you say the strong get stronger and BTC is ready to double to 160k, that's also possible, but after all, it's a low-probability event. $BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
TraderS | 缺德道人
Although the South Korean stock market triggered a circuit breaker, there are actually two pieces of good news today: one is that the probability of an interest rate hike in October has dropped again, and the other is that both short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields have fallen.
For a long time, the issues troubling the U.S. stock market, besides the aging themes and elevated valuations leading the market to focus on earnings expectations, have been the competition for liquidity among U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries, and corporate bonds.
Now, the decline in U.S. stocks will drive liquidity into U.S. Treasuries to ease the Treasury crisis, while gold, which is directly linked to interest rates, remains generally stable. Without a larger liquidity crisis, gold should maintain stability. Even if there is a short-term liquidity crunch causing a drop, the support from central bank gold purchases keeps it very safe, making it a suitable low-risk bottom-fishing asset.
Tonight's PPI data will most likely continue the trend of yesterday's CPI. Even if it unexpectedly comes in lower than expected, the positive impact will probably only trigger a small rebound and cannot reverse the downward trend. After this decline, it will likely take the FOMC decision combined with easing U.S.-Iran tensions and other positive factors to gradually calm the market, so patience is required. #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
Although the South Korean stock market triggered a circuit breaker, there are actually two pieces of good news today: one is that the probability of an interest rate hike in October has dropped again, and the other is that both short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields have fallen.
For a long time, the issues troubling the U.S. stock market, besides the aging themes and elevated valuations leading the market to focus on earnings expectations, have been the competition for liquidity among U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasuries, and corporate bonds.
Now, the decline in U.S. stocks will drive liquidity into U.S. Treasuries to ease the Treasury crisis, while gold, which is directly linked to interest rates, remains generally stable. Without a larger liquidity crisis, gold should maintain stability. Even if there is a short-term liquidity crunch causing a drop, the support from central bank gold purchases keeps it very safe, making it a suitable low-risk bottom-fishing asset.
Tonight's PPI data will most likely continue the trend of yesterday's CPI. Even if it unexpectedly comes in lower than expected, the positive impact will probably only trigger a small rebound and cannot reverse the downward trend. After this decline, it will likely take the FOMC decision combined with easing U.S.-Iran tensions and other positive factors to gradually calm the market, so patience is required. #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
Storage is still in a downtrend. Narratively, it is being chased down by Chinese storage companies, but from the market perspective, it had simply peaked and was due for a decline.
Take SanDisk as an example. Besides the recent downtrend driven by narrative catalysts and macroeconomic pressure, we also have to wait for the earnings report on October 29. If it has already bottomed out before then, the scare from the Chinese horror story will have passed, and it will likely rebound on the back of a decent earnings report.
SPCX previously reached a rebound peak amid market hype about space computing power, then fell back again. The 175 level is a key pivot around the IPO period, while 220+ is an irrational, unexpected range driven by extreme hype, which is hard to reach easily. Unless external favorable conditions coincide with proven self-sustaining capabilities, it will be difficult to return there in the short term.
On October 25, SPCX will unlock another 330 million shares, and about 1.3 billion shares will be released on the second trading day after the third-quarter report. Such heavy selling pressure combined with a declining external market will create a terrifying scenario.
In summary, the down window for various risk assets has opened. Don’t rush to enter the market; even if you want to move fast, wait at least a week to see how things develop. $SNDK $SPCX #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期