Rocky_BTC

Long term investor #BTC #TAO #SOL #SUI #XRP| MeMe Professional Data Player | Crypto since 2017 | Not financial advice, DYOR🙏

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Besides some well-known US stock funds, hedge fund holdings are also an area not to be overlooked, because hedge funds are run by the top people on Wall Street. Therefore, observing their fund performance rankings is crucial. Following the strategies of high-performing funds often yields twice the result with half the effort! As of July 31, here are the global hedge fund performance rankings! Looking closely, among the top 6, 4 are related to Citadel. Citadel truly is the West Point of hedge funds! The first and second places are both from Citadel, led by Ken Griffin. Citadel Equities is his main equities division and was the buyer of the Situational Awareness stock position from the acquisition of Silicon Valley genius Leopold Fund. The explosive performance after the merger is understandable, and August should look even better. Although shameless, you have to admit the Wall Street wolf is pretty impressive. July's return reached 14.2%, with 27% for the year! Citadel Tactical Trading ranks second. This is an independent sub-fund within Citadel that specializes in high-frequency, mid-frequency event-driven, arbitrage, and cross-asset tactical allocation. Essentially, it focuses on short-term arbitrage. July's return was 11.1%, also 27% for the year. It likely picked up many bargain chips during the Situational Awareness margin top-up process! Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund ranks third, the famous Renaissance Technologies founded by Jim Simons. Its most famous fund is the "Medallion Fund," which has far outperformed Buffett, but the Medallion Fund is only for internal employees and not publicly disclosed. It specializes in medium to long-term quantitative factor investing. Today is the 14th, and the 13F report will be disclosed soon. July's return was 9.2%, with 4.5% for the year. FIFTHDELTA ranks fourth. Both founders were top senior investment managers at Citadel and have close ties to Citadel. This fund is from Europe and is one of the largest single-strategy emerging hedge funds in Europe in recent years. It mainly invests in mid-to-short-term technology and industrial stocks. July's return was 8.6%, with 7.5% for the year. Quantedge Global Fund ranks fifth, finally an Asian fund appears. This company is from Singapore and is currently Asia's top systematic all-asset macro quantitative hedge fund. High leverage + high volatility + global macro strategy, with an average return of 15-20% over the past five years, very impressive. July's return was 7.8%, with 34.6% for the year. Statar Capital ranks sixth. The founder is a former head of Citadel's commodities division, another talent from Citadel, truly the West Point of hedge funds. This fund mainly does macro arbitrage in the commodities and energy sectors. July's return was 6.85%, with 13.7% for the year. Notably, the well-known hedge fund Pershing Square had a 3.9% return in July but remains underwater for the year at -9.2%. Its third-largest holding, $UBER, dropped 15% this year, dragging down performance. Additionally, Whale Rock, one of the top hedge funds in recent years, saw its flagship fund drop 21.7% in July, and its pure long fund fell 18.8%. However, if ranked by annual performance, it is first, with over 35% returns. When you know which funds have recently performed well and which have not, you can focus on the specific holdings of these funds in today's disclosed 13F reports to make directional judgments for yourself! Also, no need to envy those Twitter players boasting multiples of returns, because the top Wall Street talents do not exceed 50% annual returns, with an average annualized return of only about 12%. If your returns exceed 12% this year, be content—you have already outperformed the best talent on Wall Street!

I believe everyone has seen SpaceX's financial report. Many partners, like me, have already taken positions after the report and got temporarily stuck in the short term. Combining some of my thoughts, I want to give everyone some encouragement! I still maintain long-term confidence in $SPCX. Currently, just looking at the financial report for pricing has lost much of its meaning because it is no longer simply a rocket company. The underlying pricing logic has changed. It is more like early Amazon. Amazon's logistics trucks and self-built warehouses don't make money and even cost a lot, but they enable e-commerce to ship quickly and allow the AWS platform to expand smoothly. The cost reduction and efficiency improvement of Starship aim to get satellites into orbit faster, build a denser network, and accelerate computing power growth. So, purely from the rocket company logic, most people probably don't understand SpaceX's valuation anymore. What Musk really wants to do is use rockets to send satellites into space, use Starlink to control the global network, and then use the network to carry AI computing power. Once this network is laid out, its flywheel will spin faster and faster! First, we must admit that this company is undoubtedly a revolutionary star in technology and business, but in the secondary market, the current stock price and the company itself are completely different matters. My personal judgment: In the short term (1-2 quarters): The pressure from share unlocks and valuation reconstruction during the cognition transition period will keep the stock price highly volatile and under some pressure. This is also a good stage to pick up chips. In the medium to long term (2-4 years): The business model will gradually complete its fundamental restructuring. SpaceX will be reborn as a globally distributed infrastructure network and merge with Tesla to become the world's largest market cap company, challenging 10 trillion. My view: The first financial report after listing is impressive. Looking at this report alone, the indicators are indeed flawless: Quarterly revenue: $7.8 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, far exceeding market expectations. Narrowed losses: Net loss shrank from $1 billion a year ago to $540 million, halving directly, indicating its scale effect is rapidly emerging. Three core businesses: 1. Rocket business (share dropped to 12%): from core revenue to underlying support. Space launch business revenue this quarter was $962 million, still growing 29% year-over-year, but its share of total revenue has diluted to 12%. More importantly, launch and Starship R&D together recorded an operating loss of $542 million. Many in the market still use the "aerospace company" framework to calculate rocket launch frequency and per-launch cost. But in fact, Starship's role in the current commercial structure has shifted to an infrastructure deployment tool. This logic is analogous to the early Amazon investment in self-built warehouses, as mentioned at the beginning. 2. Starlink (revenue $4.29 billion, YoY +66%): a high-margin network engine. Starlink achieved an operating profit of $1.66 billion, with an operating margin as high as 39%. The user base exceeded 12 million (doubling year-over-year). Regarding the 23% year-over-year ARPU decline, the market is somewhat overly worried about this metric. As Starlink penetrates from high-income customers in North America and Europe to mass markets in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and elsewhere globally, the average revenue per user decline is an inevitable rule of scale expansion, similar to Netflix's global path. 3. AI computing power and infrastructure expansion (revenue $2.6 billion, Capex $18.4 billion) This quarter's capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion, with about $15.8 billion invested in infrastructure and computing network construction. The market's first reaction is fear of "out-of-control cash burn." But it should be noted that Starlink itself has a 39% operating margin and already has strong cash generation ability. This model of using mature business profits to nourish the next stage of infrastructure expansion is much healthier than companies relying solely on equity or debt financing to burn cash. Short-term opportunity to pick up cheap chips: 910 million shares unlocking wave. This is the core logic for major short players in the market who are bearish on SpaceX's short-term trend. The first unlock after IPO is a key event. For spot players, this is an excellent opportunity to pick up cheap chips. Don't forget, the short squeeze caused by crowded shorts will be the driving force for a price surge! Undeniably, this supply surge is somewhat worrying. The original shares unlocking this time reach 910 million shares. Compared to the current circulating shares of about 556 million, this means the circulating supply will instantly expand by more than 1.5 times once unlocked. Among them, large early institutional investors like Google and Fidelity, who invested around 2015 when valuations were only about $10-15 billion, have extremely low costs and generally have a hundredfold benefit on their original shares. Recently, Google has been issuing bonds due to AI funding needs, so they will likely gradually sell, but theoretically, it should be done in blocks, so it won't significantly affect the secondary market. But why is this a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pick up cheap chips? Think about it: if you are a large institution with heavy funds, would you buy at a high price? Absolutely not. Big money will quietly wait for original shareholders to dump shares and push the price down to a deep pit, then buy chips at a low price. So we retail investors just follow! Thursday and Friday might be a good opportunity! Will a short squeeze happen? As is well known, SpaceX currently has 220 million shares shorted, about 34% of the float. I personally think the shorts are too crowded now. After the bad news lands, a surge to squeeze out shorts is a high-probability event, especially on Thursday and Friday nights! The unlocking of 910 million shares is already a clear fact. A short squeeze is very likely. Shorts wanting to cover can't find shares and will be forced to bid up prices, causing a stock price explosion. Also, Google and similar institutions will likely solve their shares in blocks, and SpaceX employees and core team members are unlikely to sell much, as they are old partners who have struggled for the dream until now! In summary, this unlock is a pretty good opportunity to pick up cheap chips, and a short squeeze event is highly probable. As the saying goes, bad news priced in is good news. In the long term, I am very optimistic about SpaceX, and their CFO also said they will recover capital expenditure within a year.