老莫养鱼交易日记
老莫养鱼交易日记
八年币圈生涯 老韭菜一枚～每天分享交易日常以及做单思路！
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$ETH $SNDK
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#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
$ETH pullbacks are just opportunities to go long; the bulls will never be slaves!!!
Despite so many negative data points last week, BTC still held strong, and the key support at 80000 was not effectively broken, indicating there is still capital supporting from below. The strategy given this afternoon finally provided a chance to get in!
There are no particularly important data releases this week, but the midterm elections are approaching. If some positive news comes, market sentiment will surge again, so this week is mainly about buying the dip.
Short-term:
BTC: try longs near 82000 Ethereum: try longs near 2400-2410 Solana: try longs near 104-104.3
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $SOL
$SKHYNIX Oversold rebound or the start of a new market rally?
Over the weekend, US stocks collectively plunged, and SK Hynix experienced a sharp correction, dropping below the previous low of 853.01 before quickly rebounding to around 970.
This drop can be understood as the market releasing concentrated selling pressure, but it cannot be simply regarded as just a shakeout. What truly deserves attention is whether SK Hynix can regain strength through actual price action after digesting the negative news!
Currently, the logic suggests that the early negative factors have been somewhat released, and the daily chart shows signs of stabilization. While the technological progress of ChangXin Memory does not pose competitive pressure to the industry, the market may have already repriced the AI memory industry.
So, should we go long or short next?
Old Mo's approach: Consider light long positions at the current level but do not blindly chase the rally!
Reference range: Buy around 960-970, target 1050. If the rebound lacks strength and breaks the key support again, adjust your strategy promptly.
Start with light positions to test the waters, then wait for trend confirmation. Don’t hastily conclude that a new upward wave has begun just because of one rebound candlestick!
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH
$XAU When the firecrackers go off, gold is worth ten thousand taels. Gold strategy for the afternoon of 10.19: continue to look bearish on the rebound!
The weekend low-buy high-sell strategy has been firmly secured, now the high-sell strategy can be implemented!
Gold continues to fluctuate. After the rebound was blocked in the morning session, it fell again. Overall, it is still a bearish pattern under rebound pressure, and short-term downside risk needs to be closely watched.
On the upside, first look at the 4190-4200 resistance zone, with strong resistance at 4217-4223; on the downside, watch the 4130-4135 support. Once effectively broken, the next target is the 4100 level.
The 4-hour chart still requires a pullback. In the afternoon, continue to focus on shorting the rebound, do not blindly chase the rise, nor short at low levels. Be patient and enter the market only when the price rebounds to the right position.
Personal operation strategy:
4190-4200: short on rebound
4217-4223: if the rebound continues, consider adding shorts
Stop loss position: above 4229
First target: around 4130
After breaking the level: continue to watch the 4100 level
The overall strategy is still mainly high-sell, strictly control position size, set stop losses properly, and do not blindly take heavy positions betting on direction before the market trend is clear!
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH
$SNDK The US stock market was supposed to be stable over the weekend, so why this sudden drop? Man proposes, but God disposes!
It is said that this drop was caused by a whale liquidating positions. The logic isn't wrong—trying to catch a rebound—but unfortunately, the extent of this drop was unexpected. The market is always right; there is no master who always profits. When you're wrong, you're wrong!
The current rally logic is simple: the previous drop was too severe, market panic has eased, and AI storage demand remains long-term. However, this rebound is not a reversal; overall, this rally is still a recovery phase.
The current strategy is to short at highs and buy at lows. Long positions: try buying around 1280-1300. Short positions: if 1400 cannot be effectively broken, short immediately!
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH
$BTC As mentioned before, the key support at 80000 must not be effectively broken for it to be a good opportunity to go long!
The current strategy is to go long around 80000. After such a long consolidation without breaking down, this level is very likely forming a bottom. Many people are waiting for that final drop to grab chips at a lower price, but will the main force give that chance? That's the question.
$ETH Ethereum is the same, trade around 2300, try going long at 2320-2330, anyway, any pullback is a buy!!!
#机构资金转弱，BTC与ETH谁先迎来回流？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $SOL
老莫养鱼交易日记
This is how the weekend market went, brothers. No matter how the market moves, the trend can't have big changes every day. My personal view remains unchanged: go long and wait for opportunities!
$BTC
Enter long near 80000, be prepared to add positions around 75000.
For contracts, exit if it falls below 79000 and wait for new opportunities. If there's no liquidation price, just watch and buy.
$ETH 2400 can enter a bit, exit if it falls below 2370.
Enter again between 2315–2335, exit if it falls below 2280, enter again near 2235, control your position size.
The spot strategy is consistent.
$SOL Enter near 100–102, add positions at 97–98, control forced liquidation below 70 for contracts, hold spot and wait for opportunities.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
This is how the weekend market went, brothers. No matter how the market moves, the trend can't have big changes every day. My personal view remains unchanged: go long and wait for opportunities!
$BTC
Enter long near 80000, be prepared to add positions around 75000.
For contracts, exit if it falls below 79000 and wait for new opportunities. If there's no liquidation price, just watch and buy.
$ETH 2400 can enter a bit, exit if it falls below 2370.
Enter again between 2315–2335, exit if it falls below 2280, enter again near 2235, control your position size.
The spot strategy is consistent.
$SOL Enter near 100–102, add positions at 97–98, control forced liquidation below 70 for contracts, hold spot and wait for opportunities.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
$AKE going long or short is not wrong; if you grasp the entry points well, the profits can be steadily secured!!!
With this kind of trend, as long as you don't blindly chase highs or sell lows, you can make a profit whether going long or short, but controlling the entry points requires some skill.
There are still a few days left before this month's token unlock; there might be a small pull-up before the unlock, so you can continue to try going long around the lows. Don't be too ambitious, as there are many trapped positions above!
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH
老莫养鱼交易日记
$AKE The King of Demons is not joking with you, just seize it fiercely!
Three hours ago, a long position was suggested at 0.029-0.03, with the lowest pullback to 0.0284, providing a chance to enter. However, the back-and-forth shakeout is quite severe now, so don't be too ambitious. If there is more than 100% profit, consider taking profits and exiting, then wait for a pullback to re-enter!
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $BTC $ETH
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Brothers, this inflation data is really not looking good!
US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, and PPI soared to 6.3% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations. Inflation pressure is rising again, and the Fed won’t find it easy to pivot smoothly.
📌 October rate hike: Still possible, but the market is watching subsequent data, and the Fed may not rush to act.
📌 December rate hike: Currently more worrisome. Several investment banks have included another rate hike this year in their forecasts, and market concerns about sustained high interest rates are heating up.
📉 What’s the impact on crypto?
If rate hike expectations continue to rise, the dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and risk assets like BTC, ETH may face greater pressure; if inflation cools down later, rate hike expectations may also retreat.
My view: We can’t rule out another rate hike this year, but it’s not set in stone.
Next, focus on Fed meetings, inflation trends, and employment data. Don’t rush to bet on one-sided trades; controlling position size and waiting for market direction is more important!
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 $BTC $ETH $SOL
$XAU plunges 27% revealing a trillion-dollar minefield! Bulls and bears battle at 4150, retail investors don't be cannon fodder!
Don't be fooled by short-term rebounds; if you can't see the chip distribution clearly, your principal is just the main force's ATM.
From the news:
Macro: Gold prices have plummeted 27% from the January high, but central bank gold purchases and silver gaps still support the long term.
Technical:
On the XAU 4-hour chart, the price has fallen sharply from the 4388 high, currently struggling around 4171, perfectly suppressed by the middle band. MACD is shrinking below the zero line, but the overall weakness remains unchanged.
Capital:
Looking at the capital flow chart, there is a net outflow of 316 million in 1 day, 174 million in 3 days; large funds are still continuously withdrawing.
Liquidation map:
The current 4171 level is extremely dangerous. A large number of short positions are stacked near 4239 above, while between 4151 and 4138 below, there is a dense arrangement of huge long liquidation minefields. The main force may spike down at any time, triggering long liquidations.
Bull-bear strategy:
Longs: Around 4138-4151, if there is no obvious stop-fall volume signal, resolutely do not catch the falling knife.
Shorts: Decisively enter shorts near 4214-4227, target near 4151, break below look for around 4100.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH
$SNDK can only be described as a rebound with a high shorting mindset—those who understand, understand. The target was perfectly achieved!
As mentioned yesterday, a rebound is not a reversal; the selling pressure above is still too heavy. Currently hovering around 1300, from the crypto perspective this is definitely a low position, but from the US stock market perspective, it is still at a high level.
The US stock market is closed these two days, most likely resulting in a range-bound consolidation with no significant fluctuations. At this position, you can try going long around 1280 to catch a rebound!
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH
老莫养鱼交易日记
$SNDK Is this a real reversal or a false breakout to lure buyers? I'm not very optimistic about this rebound!
From the market perspective, this rebound clearly lacks volume, and capital follow-up is weak. After the price rebounded near 1408, there was obvious selling pressure above, and the key resistance at 1420 was not effectively broken.
Moreover, the previous negative news has not been fully digested, so I think a direct reversal is still unlikely.
You can still short on the rebound; the 1380-1410 range is suitable for short positions. First target 1320, then 1280. If there is a strong volume breakout above 1420 later, the short logic needs to be reassessed. $BTC
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $ETH