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Robinhood主App有超过2400万活跃用户。链上，Robinhood Wallet贡献的交易笔数——不到1%。即使把那些无法识别归属的长尾交易全部算进去，最乐观的估计也就5%。 ARK Invest研究员Lorenzo Valente： “像是同一群Degen，只是换了一条新链。” 这不是“券商用户上链”的故事。这是一场披着券商外衣的Degen狂欢。 PONS较历史高点下跌超58%。AI跌超70%。CASHCAT跌超50%。币股Meme项目MEME跌超90%。一个月前追捧这些代币的人，现在正在割肉。 9月29日至10月2日，Pons V2日均发币量6,768个，较9月上半月下降约72%。日均手续费从687万美元降至148万美元，暴跌78%。同期全链DEX日均成交量下降约35%。发币热潮退了，手续费腰斩了，PONS的回购支持资金也跟着缩水了。潮水退去，谁在裸泳，现在清楚了。 Robinhood Chain 7月1日上线后，日活用户一度冲到32万，DEX日交易量峰值超过8亿美元。链上数据看起来很性感。但到了8月，日均交易笔数创下1160万的纪录，平均日活账户却只增长了3.3%，而且仍比7月峰值低11%。翻译一下：交易量涨了，但人没多。是同一批人在疯狂交易，不是新用户在涌入。 Robinhood Chain的增长本质是什么？加密原生投机资金驱动的。Meme币和币股Meme是钩子，钩子上的饵是高收益。当饵没了，鱼就走了。 Robinhood Chain DeFi TVL约10.51亿美元，稳定币市值约10.55亿美元，DEX累计交易量突破750亿美元。这些数字看着很大。但底层的用户结构没变。 2400万用户的转化不是自动发生的。一个普通股票交易者打开Robinhood App买特斯拉，跟打开Robinhood Wallet去链上Swap一个Meme币，中间隔着一整个宇宙的认知门槛。 Robinhood需要回答一个核心问题：为什么一个普通股票交易者，要把钱从App转到链上？如果这个问题没有答案，链上增长就永远依赖投机资金的潮汐。涨潮的时候，数据很好看。退潮的时候，才是真相。那Robinhood Chain还有救吗？有。但不是靠Meme。 Tenev在韩国区块链周上透露，公司计划将区块链功能整合到主App中，让用户实现无缝使用。同时计划在全球范围内拓展股票代币的应用场景。这才是正确的方向。不是让用户去链上，而是把链上搬到用户面前。但这条路需要时间。代币化股票从“合成敞口”到真正的股东权利，还有很长的路要走。AMC的CEO已经公开炮轰Robinhood的股票代币是“令人憎恶”的“准假市场”。冷启动靠Meme，留下来靠产品。 Robinhood Chain现在卡在中间。 Robinhood有2400万用户，这是它最大的底牌。但底牌没有打出去之前，它只是牌。不是筹码。链上那1%，才是真相。 $PONS $AI $MEME

Nonfarm payroll data collapsed. New jobs added: 29,000, expected 90,000, three times less. Logically, rate hike expectations should have plummeted, and risk assets should have celebrated. So what happened? After Friday's nonfarm release, the 10-year US Treasury yield did briefly drop to 5.15%. But a few hours later, it bounced back to 5.28%. And BTC? It surged from 87,000 to 87,000, then was pushed back around 85,000, fluctuating. This isn’t a slow market reaction. The market is telling you—the positive impact of employment data has already been “blunted.” What’s really weighing down all assets isn’t the nonfarm data. It’s three sets of data. 📊 Data ① — Employment: Positive, but already “blunted” First, the facts. US September nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 90,000. August data was also revised down by 133,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data release, CME data showed the probability of holding rates steady in October rose to 83.9%, basically ruling out an October rate hike. The probability of a December hike is 66.1%. But notice one detail: how do institutions interpret this? Goldman Sachs’s view is: an October hike is unlikely, but a hike in December is still expected. Moreover, the Federal Open Market Committee may ultimately conclude that no additional hikes are needed. In plain language: pause in October, reassess in December. Employment data pushed rate hike expectations back but didn’t eliminate them. Inflation remains at 3.7%, above target for 65 consecutive months, so the Fed has no reason to declare victory. Employment data is positive but has been mostly priced in by the market. 📊 Data ② — Bond market: This is what’s really crushing all assets On October 1, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly surged to 5.342%—the highest since April 2002. The 30-year yield touched 5.63%. The 10-year yield rose about 0.9 percentage points in Q3, the largest quarterly increase since 1994. What does 5.34% mean? US federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion. The Treasury must keep issuing bonds to cover deficits and repay maturing debt. With supply surging, investors demand higher yields. At the same time, the AI investment boom is pushing up chip and computer prices, Middle East conflicts keep oil prices high, and tariff wars have restarted—inflation pressures come from all directions. That’s why nonfarm data collapsed but Treasury yields won’t fall. It’s not because the Fed wants to hike rates. It’s because the Treasury is desperately issuing debt, and the market demands higher risk premiums. HSBC Asia’s chief economist put it bluntly: the bond market will keep demanding higher long-term borrowing premiums until monetary tightening is truly realized. BTC caught in the middle: A 10-year yield of 5.34% means the risk-free rate is near historic highs. A non-yielding asset’s holding cost is pushed to the extreme. BTC was pushed down from 87,000 to 83,000, then rebounded to 85,000—until this 5.34% line eases, every rebound is a test, not a breakthrough. Watch the 10-year yield at 5.34%. When it falls, BTC will have a real chance to break through. 📊 Data ③ — Capital flows: Mixed signals, direction unclear ETF capital flows are the most conflicted among these three data sets. On September 30, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $149 million, ending a prior nine-day inflow totaling about $3.1 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT also ended its own nine-day inflow of $1.6 billion, with a slight net outflow of $9.5 million that day. Then the next day, October 1, funds returned. That day, total net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs was $103 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT net inflow of $196 million—the largest inflow product that day. IBIT’s historical total net inflow has reached $65.574 billion. But looking at the structure, it’s not that simple: BlackRock IBIT: +$196 million (inflow) Fidelity FBTC: -$60.73 million (outflow) Grayscale GBTC: -$31.4 million (outflow) BlackRock is buying, Fidelity and Grayscale are selling. For the whole week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of about $82.9 million, sharply down from $2.39 billion the previous week, but still the third consecutive week of net inflows. In other words: the direction isn’t bad, but momentum is weakening. Quarter-end rebalancing caused short-term volatility; the real direction is not yet set. Putting the three data sets together: Employment → Positive but blunted. The market has accepted the "pause in October, reassess in December" rhythm. Bond market → Core suppression. 10-year at 5.34%, no decline, BTC struggles for sustained breakthroughs. Capital → BlackRock buying, Fidelity selling. Mixed signals, waiting for confirmation. Stop focusing on nonfarm. Next week, two things are a hundred times more important than nonfarm: First, the Fed’s September meeting minutes. Released at 2 AM Beijing time Thursday. The market’s main focus is—will there be a hike in December? The discussion on inflation and employment risks, and officials’ disagreements on further hikes or pauses, will provide the answer. Second, the auction results for 20- to 30-year US Treasuries. The Treasury will announce the scale of 20- to 30-year bond buyback operations and conduct 10- and 30-year bond auctions. Whether long-term yields can fall from 20-year highs is the key variable determining if BTC can truly break above $85,000. Gold fell nearly 2% this week. Despite weak nonfarm data, gold prices didn’t continue rising—because everyone is being pressured by Treasury yields. If even gold can’t withstand a 5.34% yield, why should BTC? Employment collapsed, Treasury yields went crazy, ETFs came and went. When these three signals conflict, don’t rush to bet. Keep an eye on 5.34%. That line is the lifeline for all assets right now. $BTC $BZ $XAU #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%