On October 2nd, the US September nonfarm payroll data was released—29,000 new jobs added, while the market expected 90,000, a deviation of nearly 70,000. August data was also revised down by 133,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This is the worst employment report in recent months, bad enough to cause the market's bet on an October rate hike to collapse from 70% to about 15%.
Logically, this should be a "big gift" for Bitcoin.
Once the data came out, Bitcoin did surge—briefly reaching $87,220, up more than 3% intraday.
And then? Then nothing.
A few hours later, BTC fell back to around $84,700, wiping out all gains.
The good news was given, the market saw it, but Bitcoin just wouldn’t hold up.
Why?
First mountain: US Treasury yields don’t buy it
In the same week the nonfarm data was released, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.34%, the highest since 2002—meaning the highest level in 24 years.
The Fed is not hiking in October, so yields should drop, right?
Quite the opposite.
Long-term Treasury yields are not focused on the Fed’s actions this month, but on inflation expectations + fiscal deficit + term premium. Energy inflation persists (Brent crude remains near $100), geopolitical risks remain, and there is huge pressure from government bond supply—these three factors keep long-term rates from falling.
With a risk-free yield above 5%, why would institutions risk buying Bitcoin?
Second mountain: Dollar index hits a 17-month high
The Bloomberg Dollar Index has rebounded about 3% from its September low, rising for the third consecutive week to a 17-month high.
Bank of America strategist Hartnett: Investors are reducing holdings in stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets, and rebuilding cash.
This is the truth behind the strong dollar—the money is flowing back, not out.
A strong dollar puts pressure on dollar-denominated risk assets.
Third mountain: ETF inflows are not continuous
From September 17 to 29, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling about $3.08 billion. Looks impressive, right?
But looking at the details:
On September 28, daily net inflows sharply dropped to $31 million—less than 400 BTC. At the peak in early September, single-day inflows were nearly $1 billion, corresponding to over 11,000 BTC.
There is also a key structural issue: the $84,000–$85,000 range is a dense supply zone for long-term holders, with holdings exceeding any other price range. ETF buying did absorb some selling pressure in September, but the strength has clearly weakened.
Every time the price breaks above $84,000, someone sells. That’s the ceiling.
Whether the Fed hikes in October or not, the short-term impact on Bitcoin has dulled.
Why? Because the market has already priced in an 83.9% chance of no hike in October. This expectation has long been digested; even confirming no hike won’t bring incremental buying.
The real pricing anchor is the 10-year Treasury yield.
No matter how good the nonfarm data is or how bad employment is, as long as the 5.34% Treasury yield doesn’t fall, the valuation ceiling for risk assets remains. This is not a sentiment issue, it’s a cost of capital issue.
The nonfarm data gave the market the imagination of a "pause in rate hikes," but the Treasury yield says: No, you haven’t.
There are two types of people losing money in the market now:
First, those who rushed in to go long after the nonfarm surprise. They thought good news = price rise, but were crushed by Treasury yields.
Second, those who thought easing rate hike expectations meant liquidity would loosen. They forgot one thing—the Fed pausing hikes ≠ easing. Rates are still at 3.75%-4%, among the highest since 2008.
No hike just means no more acceleration, not that the brakes are off.
Next week, watch three key events:
First, Thursday at 2 a.m., the Fed’s September meeting minutes. This is the most important. The market has shifted focus from "Will the Fed hike in October?" to "Will it hike in December?" Officials’ disagreements on inflation and employment risks in the minutes will determine December hike pricing.
Second, Monday at 10 p.m., ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Expected at 55.7; if it beats expectations, it means the economy is still strong—this could push Treasury yields higher, bad for BTC. If below expectations, rate hike expectations cool further, possibly briefly benefiting risk assets.
Third, US Treasury 20-30 year bond buyback operations. If the Treasury steps up buybacks to suppress long-term yields, that would be a real positive.
Nonfarm data only made BTC strong for 5 minutes. The 5.34% Treasury yield is the true bear commander.
If you don’t watch it, it watches you.
$BTC$CL$BZ#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
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