BTC at $80,400, have you been left behind?
First, look at the surface: volume shrank and price fell over the weekend, retail investors started to panic again.
From Friday's high of 81,900 down to 80,400, a drop of just over 1%. Weekend liquidity was poor, volume shrank, and the candlestick left an upper shadow. Many immediately shouted: "It's over, the rebound is finished, this is a dead cat bounce confirmed."
First thing: Shorts were liquidated for 470 million, is this a dead cat bounce?
Within 24 hours on Friday, BTC short liquidations reached 238 million, with total market short liquidations exceeding 470 million. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 433 million in a single day—Fidelity alone bought 310 million, BlackRock followed with 108 million.
Short sellers were forced out, institutions were frantically buying at the bottom.
A dead cat bounce wouldn't liquidate 470 million in shorts nor would Fidelity buy 300 million in one day.
Second thing: The Fed raised interest rates, but BTC only dropped to 75,000 before bouncing back.
On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, passing unanimously 12-0. The dot plot shows one more hike this year, with the median rate at 4.1% by the end of 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.94%, oil prices surpassed 100, CPI at 3.4%—the macro environment is extremely tight.
But BTC? After the decision, it only dipped to 75,000 before being forcefully pulled back above 80,000 by buyers.
This shows the negative factors have been fully priced in. Rate hikes, high oil prices, Bank of Japan rate hikes—all these bad news have been digested by BTC at the 75,000 price level.
Third thing: 80,000 is the 50-week moving average; the Sunday close will decide life or death.
The daily chart tells you: BTC has already risen above the 50-day MA (73,190) and 200-day MA (70,500), and is now contesting the 50-week MA—right around 80,000.
Friday saw a large volume bullish candle reclaim 80,000, but volume shrank and price fell over the weekend. Whether the weekly close on Sunday can hold 80,000 is the dividing line between bull and bear.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
On one side:
Shorts liquidated 470 million, squeeze momentum remains
ETF single-day inflow 433 million, institutional cost moved up to 80,000
Above 50-day + 200-day MAs, mid-term structure intact
Saylor, Cathie Wood, Raoul Pal all bullish
On the other side:
Fed rate hikes, one more expected this year
Oil price 100+, CPI 3.4%, liquidity not loose
CLARITY Act failed in Senate, regulatory cloud remains
Calacanis calls it a "dead cat bounce," 82,000 rejected three times
Resistance above: 81,700-82,200 → 83,000-86,000 (dense short zone)
Support below: 80,000 (50-week MA) → 78,000-78,500 → 76,300-76,700
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
On a pullback to 80,000-80,200 with stabilization (long lower shadow or volume bullish candle), lightly go long, stop loss at 79,600, target 81,500-82,000. Add positions if breaking 82,200 aiming for 83,000-85,000.
If Monday breaks below 80,000 with volume, reverse to target 78,000-76,500.
Swing traders:
Wait for weekly close confirmation. Hold 80,000, daily above 82,200 before entering, target 85,000-86,000. If breaking 80,000, reduce positions and wait to buy near 76,000.
Long-term believers:
Buy on dips below 80,000 without hesitation. Institutional cost is around 80,000, you’re cheaper than institutions, what’s there to fear? Hold and wait for the real rate cut cycle to begin.
BTC now is like gold in 2023—
Everyone says "the rate hike cycle isn’t over, don’t touch it," yet it quietly doubled.
You can hesitate at 80,000, but don’t forget:
The market always bottoms in despair, rises in hesitation, and ends in euphoria.
You’re hesitating now, which means it’s not the top yet.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At 80,000, do you dare to bottom-fish or wait for a break?
$BTC$ETH$ZEC#BTC维持8万美元，加密市场修复扩散
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