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Will #美联储10月再加息概率破55% #长端美债5% become the new normal? Global asset pricing anchors are stirring again, with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing the 5% mark—this macro data directly affects capital sentiment in the crypto market. US fiscal policy continues to issue large-scale bonds, but the willingness of overseas long-term funds to buy bonds has clearly weakened. With rising opportunity costs, $BTC is under pressure, spot ETF funds keep flowing out, and risk asset valuations are being suppressed. The market is now divided into two camps: some believe that high deficits combined with sticky inflation will make 5% a new central point for long-term interest rates; The other group believes the 5% rate will severely backfire on the US economy, and if the economy weakens, yields will naturally fall. The current high is only a temporary phenomenon. Breaking down the underlying logic, long-term bond yields are determined by fiscal supply, inflation levels, and global funding needs. U.S. Treasuries are risk-free yield assets, and persistently high interest rates will continuously suppress the appeal of non-cash-generating assets like BTC. As long as long-term yields remain high, overall risk appetite in the crypto sector will be difficult to recover quickly. Based on the market situation, here is my view: it is very difficult to maintain a stable 5% yield for the long term, and it is highly likely to fluctuate between 4.75% and 5.25% going forward. Next, focus on two core indicators: the scale of U.S. fiscal bond issuance and the latest inflation data. Macro liquidity is the underlying force that determines whether the market can break the trend. Everyone thinks that if long-term bonds remain stuck around 5%, the crypto market