#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook
About SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook
The Fed’s September meeting minutes are due at 2:00 pm ET on Oct 7. September’s ISM services PMI eased to 54.9, while its prices index rose to 74.0. The US added just 29,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.2%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has said further hikes depend on whether inflation pressures fade or persist. The minutes may offer clues to officials’ views on inflation, jobs and the rate outlook.
Hot
Latest
SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook Popular posts
#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook The Fed has an uncomfortable problem heading into its September minutes 👀
Hiring has slowed sharply, with just 29K jobs added and unemployment at 4.2%. That normally argues for caution.
But ISM services tells a different story. Activity remains expansionary at 54.9, while the prices index jumped to 74.0, keeping inflation pressure very much alive.
What caught my attention is the tension between the two signals. A weaker labor market makes further tightening harder to justify, but persistent service inflation makes declaring victory equally difficult.
That puts today's minutes under a microscope. Markets won't just be looking for hawkish or dovish language. They'll be looking for what would actually make officials move.
The bigger takeaway: the Fed may be entering a phase where jobs argue for patience while prices argue for action. That tension could keep rate expectations, yields, gold and BTC unusually sensitive to every new data point.
#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook Fed minutes drop at 2pm ET today and the setup is genuinely mixed 👀
September ISM Services PMI eased to 54.9 — cooler than expected. But the prices index rose to 74.0, which is hot. So activity is slowing but pricing power isn't, which is exactly the kind of confusing signal that divides the FOMC 📊
US payrolls added just 29,000 in September. Unemployment at 4.2%. That's weak enough to justify a pause, but not weak enough to panic about a recession. The Goldilocks zone for "maybe one more hike" 🤔
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly already said further hikes depend on whether inflation pressures fade or persist. Translation: the Committee is genuinely split on whether to move again 🫠
The minutes will show how officials were actually thinking when they hiked last month. Were they hawkish on inflation? Worried about financial conditions? Concerned about the economy slowing? The nuance matters because it decides October odds 📈
Weak jobs, easing services activity, but sticky prices — does the Fed pivot toward a pause, or does one more hike still happen? 👇
The Federal Reserve's September meeting delivered a clear shift in the rate outlook. The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, citing resilient economic activity alongside inflation that remains elevated.
The latest projections also caught market attention. Fed officials' median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 moved up to 4.1%, compared with 3.8% in June, while the median 2026 PCE inflation forecast increased to 3.7%. Most participants also judged inflation risks as tilted to the upside.
With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for October 27–28, markets are now focused on incoming inflation, employment and growth data for clues on whether September's hike represents a one-off adjustment or the beginning of a more restrictive policy path.
The rate debate is firmly back in focus and the next batch of U.S. economic data could play a major role in shaping expectations.
#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook $BTC
The September minutes matter less as a replay of the meeting than as a map of the trade-off officials were seeing: softer hiring beside still-firm services prices. With jobs cooling but price pressure not clearly fading, the useful signal is how conditional the committee sounds on persistence—not a preset path for hikes.
Not advice, just analysis.
#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook
BTC Decouples from Tech, Follows Bonds
BTC's 30-day correlation with Nasdaq drops to 0.31 (lowest since March), while correlation with 10Y Treasury yields hits 0.72. Gold breaks $2,750/oz. Institutional desks report "digital gold" allocation mandates increasing Q4. The narrative shift is happening in real time: BTC is not a tech stock anymore. It's a liquidity sponge. When yields rise and equities wobble, BTC's floor comes from macro hedgers rotating out of fiat, not from risk-on degens. This is why $80K held through three consecutiv
Is Bitcoin Heading to $90,000? Mike McGlone and 3 Experts Weigh In
Bitcoin is holding around $86K despite the DXY surging to an 18-month high — a macro move that has analysts paying close attention.
Michael Howell says Bitcoin is one of the most liquid-sensitive assets out there and tends to react more aggressively than gold when liquidity shifts. He notes G7 nations are steadily moving toward "monetizing" sovereign debt through the banking system and bond markets. That doesn't necessarily spell crisis, but it could slowly erode fiat purchasing power over time.
⚠️ Personal market analysis only. NFA — manage risk and DYOR.
Educational content, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, deposit, or withdraw any asset. No paid promotion or referral/affiliate links.
The calmest screen may be hiding the loudest market.
Crypto volatility is near yearly lows. Stock VIX is subdued. Yet the MOVE index—Wall Street’s “VIX for bonds”—has climbed near 116, its highest since April 2025. Corporate credit volatility has also jumped sharply.
Treasuries price the cost of money. When they shake, risk assets rarely get permanent immunity.
Tomorrow: Fed minutes.
#Fed #Crypto #Markets #Bonds #Volatility
FOMC MINUTES IN FOCUS AS OCTOBER HIKE ODDS FADE
Today’s FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for how firmly officials backed further rate hikes after September’s unanimous 25bp increase.
October hike odds have fallen to around 20% from 55% after softer inflation and payroll data, but September’s dot plot showed 14 of 18 officials still expected another 25–50bp of tightening by end-2027.
Key focus: whether officials view current policy as sufficiently restrictive and how quickly they expect further hikes.