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【ETH rose 70% in three months, but now is the hardest time】
$ETH surged 70.9% in Q3, climbing from around $1570 to $2700, outperforming BTC by a wide margin.
But when you break down the numbers, the story isn’t that simple. The US spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $3 billion in Q3, but on September 30, there was a sudden net outflow of $59.6 million. Currently, ETF holdings are about 5.91 million ETH, accounting for 4.84% of the circulating supply.
So this rally is indeed backed by real money, but the market has already priced in a large portion of institutional demand in advance. For ETH to continue replicating a 70% quarterly gain after rising from $1570 to $2700, the difficulty will definitely increase.
What I’m more concerned about now is whether new spot buying can appear above $2700. If ETF volume picks up again and ETH breaks previous highs, the market still has room to run; but if the price keeps grinding higher while ETFs start to see continuous outflows, that 70% performance might turn into a "good news already priced in" scenario.I'm speechless, woke up early to find $XDP has dropped back to the starting point.
I entered just to try to catch the main force's trading rhythm. The account had considerable floating profits overnight, and I originally planned to exit at the right time to secure this profit steadily.
Unfortunately, after repeated fluctuations overnight, the previous gains gradually evaporated, and the market fell back near the entry price. After some consideration, I chose to stop loss and exit directly. I've only been trading for two weeks but have experienced this situation several times. Small-cap coins are inherently unpredictable overnight, and betting based solely on subjective feelings easily wastes the floating profits you had.
Although this loss isn't large, seeing all the original profits vanish is inevitably disappointing. It also serves as a reminder to myself not to trade impulsively anymore and to make proper trading plans.
$BTC $ETH Yesterday's crypto news summary (Planet Post | Volume View) [This ID's View] Yesterday's market main theme: The core trading logic lies in delayed rate hike expectations, with September nonfarm payrolls becoming the biggest winner for the market going forward. After a slight cooling of PCE, the market did not immediately ease pricing but left the suspense to nonfarm payrolls; Long-term US Treasury yields fluctuated at high levels, suppressing the upside of crypto assets. The market showed a pattern of pulse rebounds and pullbacks after surges, with funds mainly engaged in short-term games without large-scale trend capital inflows. In the short term, do not be misled by a single-day rebound. The current macro market is still data-driven, and the quality of nonfarm payroll data will directly reshape interest rate pricing and the BTC major central market direction. 1. Macroeconomic News: Core PCE data edged down, market pricing in the probability of the Fed's October FOMC rate unchanged to 64%, rate hike expectations delayed, December rate hike probability repriced, US long-term Treasury yields remaining high, and the US dollar index repeatedly fluctuating. Fed officials continued to speak hawkishly, emphasizing that inflation is still insufficient and employment resilience remains the biggest risk, with unanimous attention focused on the upcoming September nonfarm payroll report. The market unanimously expects about 90,000 new nonfarm payrolls in September. If the data significantly exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will be reignited, pushing US Treasury yields higher and putting pressure on BTC and gold; If significantly below expectations, rate hike expectations will be further delayed, marking a recovery window for risk assets; Neutral data is highly likely to maintain the current volatility pattern. On October 1, the U.S. SEC issued a proposal to relax rules for investment companies custody crypto assets, allowing investment managers to do soHistorical data shows that Bitcoin indeed tends to have significant positive returns in October. From 2010 to 2024, the monthly returns in October were almost all positive—except for 2014 and 2018. More notably, October in 2017, 2021, and 2023 all started or continued substantial rallies, with gains of +46%, +41%, and +29%, respectively.
The context for 2026 is somewhat different: the market is currently still in extreme fear territory, with Bitcoin prices hovering around $58,000-$60,000. However, historically, October rebounds often occur at times when market sentiment is similarly pessimistic. If historical patterns hold, $60,000 could be a key watershed for this cycle.