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#BTC surged to $87,000, crypto total market cap returns to 3 trillion #ZEC whale closes 38,000 short positions, losing over $35 million #AMD market cap breaks $1 trillion, chip stocks rally collectively
BTC stands above 87,000, market sentiment has indeed picked up, but what I’m more focused on is the change in capital structure. The nearly $600 million inflow from the ETF wave is not something retail investors could have done — institutions are actively accumulating above 80,000, indicating their target price is far beyond this level. Short-term fluctuations are just noise, don’t get shaken out.
I continue to hold my long ETH positions; I don’t regret reducing BTC and SOL earlier. At this point, what’s really tested is not vision but patience. Chasing without a proper pullback is essentially gambling on sentiment, not trading.
Many say the newly added $2 billion in contracts is a risk, but I see it differently — it’s fuel. The more shorts pile up, the higher the price goes, the greater the risk of a stampede liquidation. Sentiment is just heating up; we’re still far from true FOMO.
BTC has pushed the ceiling to 87,000, and ETH’s catch-up rally logic is becoming clearer. As long as the overall market doesn’t experience a systemic crash, it’s highly probable that Ethereum will run a relatively strong rally.
Trading advice: For those with floating profits, move stop-loss above the entry price to secure profits first before considering bigger moves; for those without positions, try small positions to test the waters, set take-profit and stop-loss orders in advance. At this stage, surviving longer is more important than making quick gains. #BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to $3 trillion
BTC surged intraday to $87,000, driving the total crypto market capitalization back to the $3 trillion mark. Major coins like ETH, SOL, and XRP also rose in tandem, with market risk appetite significantly increasing.
Two main driving forces behind this rally:
✅ Large-scale institutional spot inflows: On September 21, the US BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $999 million, setting a new inflow record for 2026. Leading products contributed the vast majority of incremental funds, with total ETF assets returning to $100 billion, signaling a clear return of institutional capital.
✅ Concentrated short covering: During the rally phase, large-scale short liquidations occurred, with short liquidations accounting for about 80% of total liquidations. The short squeeze effect further boosted short-term gains.
Key short-term variables to watch: This Friday marks the concentrated expiration of BTC and ETH options, with BTC call option open interest concentrated at strike prices of $90,000 and $100,000. Two major indicators for the market going forward: the sustainability of spot ETF inflows and position adjustments around option expirations. Changes in derivative positions tend to amplify short-term market volatility.欧洲央行又出手了：稳定币“赚利息”的路，可能越来越窄！ 这次不是简单限制USDT、USDC，而是直接盯上了稳定币背后的“收益模式”。
欧洲央行和欧盟各国央行建议，在MiCA审查中把稳定币收益禁令进一步扩大到借贷、质押、借币以及其他间接收益产品。原因很直接：如果稳定币本身不能付息，但用户把它拿去借贷、质押后照样获得收益，实际上就绕开了原来的禁令。
我觉得这里真正值得关注的是三个影响：
第一，稳定币的金融属性会被进一步压低。
欧洲央行的逻辑是，稳定币主要应该承担支付功能，而不是变成类似银行存款的储蓄产品。
第二，DeFi和交易平台的收益产品可能受到冲击。
如果未来连“稳定币→借贷→赚收益”这种间接模式也被纳入限制，那么欧洲用户能参与的稳定币理财、借贷产品可能明显减少。
第三，对USDT、USDC等美元稳定币是长期监管压力。
欧洲央行同时还建议调整稳定币储备规则，把目前部分银行存款要求转向更强调1—5个工作日内能够变现的高流动性资产。
但有一点要注意：现在这是欧洲央行和欧盟央行体系向欧盟委员会提出的政策建议，不等于禁令已经正式生效。
个人判断，这背后的大方向其实很清晰：欧洲允许稳定币存在，但大饼在 86,300 美元横盘歇脚，很多人猜以太坊该补涨了，结果早盘领涨的却是 BCH 和 UNI。 我翻开 OKX 今早的涨幅榜看了一眼：BCH 单日涨了 29.4%，价格飙上 342 美元；UNI 也涨了 15.5%，成交干到了近 9000 万美元。反观以太坊，涨幅只有 0.31%。 为什么轮到这两个老面孔？ 说白了，存量资金现在只认一件事——合规增量。芝商所（CME）宣布 10 月 19 日上线 BCH 和 UNI 期货。对华尔街正规军而言，有 CME 结算的合规牌照，大资金才能光明正大地开仓做基差套利。以太坊现在既要面对现货 ETF 的抛压阴影，又要被各路 L2 抽血分流，而 BCH 和 UNI 却借着 CME 的背书，抢先拿到合规资金池的准生证。 但问题来了。 这种消息刺激出来的脉冲，向来带着浓厚的预期套利味道。 如果大资金只是为了在合约上线前建底仓做基差，等到 10 月中旬正式挂牌，很容易演变成利好兑现后的出货。 如果 BCH 跌破 310 美元平台，或者成交在三天内快速缩量，这波补涨逻辑就会被彻底证伪。 接下来我只看两个点： 一是 BCH 能否在 340 美元上方站稳换手Institutions are buying wildly! They definitely know something? But what really matters is not who bought how much again, but whether treasury companies and ETFs are continuously accumulating.
Strategy bought 950 BTC every two weeks at an average price of about $79,670, holding 846,000 BTC; Strive added 1,355 BTC, holding 26,355 BTC. ETH is even more aggressive, BitMine bought 27,562 ETH at once, with a total holding close to 5.98 million ETH, of which 5.07 million are staked.
The numbers are scary, but a few thousand coins in a single transaction won't change the big picture. What really has impact is continuous buying. Treasury companies keep buying, ETFs keep absorbing spot, so the tradable supply of BTC and ETH will gradually decrease. It won't rise just because of buying today, but over time, supply changes will slowly show.
However, the pace is changing: Strategy used to buy several thousand coins last month, but only 950 this week, slowing down; BitMine is still buying aggressively, but besides hoarding ETH, it also stakes for yield, so the logic is different. $BTC $ETH
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #BTC surged to $87000, and the total crypto market cap returned to 3 trillion
$ETH surged near 2800 then quickly pulled back, the reason being that when the price hit 2800, a large number of early holders directly placed sell orders,
and at the same time, there were heavy sell orders on the order book above.
Purely relying on short-term funds, it's difficult to consume all sell orders at once; if it can't push through, it will be hammered down. One of the main drivers of the rise was short squeeze; near 2800, this wave of short positions has basically been liquidated, the short squeeze momentum is exhausted, and there is no new buying support.
BTC spot ETFs are the main force behind this rally, but ETH spot ETF approval still faces huge uncertainty. The market's expectations for ETH institutional funds are inherently more cautious.
Under the same macro favorable conditions, ETH has greater upside elasticity, but once it encounters resistance, funds will prioritize taking profits on ETH and flow back to BTC for hedging, so ETH's pullback is faster.
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $BTC $DOGE $XAU Gold has been dropping during the day and bouncing at night these past two days, but the rebounds lack strength. The price is being suppressed by 4400 and the medium- to long-term moving averages, trading back and forth within a wide high-level triangle.
For a sustained rise, it must first hold above 4385; if it can't, there's no chance. On the downside, buy in batches at 4300 and 4267, but don't chase the rally. The weekly bullish trend is intact, 4245 is very important and also the starting point of this wave; break below it and cut losses. #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ 📊 ETF FLOWS ARE EASING, BUT PRICE IS STILL HOLDING
On September 22, spot ETF flows remained positive:
🟢 $BTC : +$104.54M → cumulative $56.26B
🟢 $ETH : +$37.70M → cumulative $13.56B
However, inflows were noticeably lower than the previous day.
Meanwhile, prices remain close to recent highs:
$BTC: $86.49K vs. high of $87.40K
$ETH: $2.76K vs. high of $2.81K
The interesting part? ETF inflows are cooling, but price hasn't broken down.
So the key question is no longer “Are ETFs still buying?2026-09-23 Geopolitics & Physical Express (information ends at 10:09) Beneath the tense surface of geopolitical tensions, dark market exposure is influencing asset pricing. Morning Core Stories: - US-Iran sideline meeting at the UN General Assembly (BBC, Al Jazeera). Trump threatened to destroy Iran during his speech, but privately US and Iranian officials sat on the sidelines negotiating, and Trump later changed his stance, saying the meeting was "very smooth." - Zelensky said Ukraine is preparing a ceasefire with Russia over energy facilities (Al Jazeera), indicating a temporary probing window in the tense Russia-Ukraine situation. - Six major Canadian commercial banks jointly launched a pilot for tokenized deposits (CoinDesk). Facing the impact of offshore US dollar stablecoins, traditional banking systems are jointly building compliant on-chain channels. Core transmission chain: Intensive interaction at the UN Congress has directly weakened geopolitical premiums. Easing expectations in the Middle East pushed international crude oil below the $90 mark; Falling energy costs dampened market concerns about secondary inflation, stabilizing US Treasury yields; Risk appetite in US stocks was boosted, and overflow liquidity indirectly stabilized Bitcoin's $86,000 consolidation platform. Keeping a close eye on the following: First, whether there are signs of substantial easing of sanctions after the US-Iran meeting; Second, whether crude oil can form resistance below $90, consolidating the liquidity bottom of global risk assets.Trading is destined to be a solitary practice.
Having entered the crypto space for nearly ten years, I still haven't achieved stable results, but I have changed and gradually honed my own trading system.
I believe in technical trading. Relying on news to trade in the crypto world essentially means putting your neck out to be harvested. News-based trading only leads to constantly chasing highs and lows: going long just at the peak spike, going short just at the bottom spike. My trading framework is technical analysis combined with position management.
The hardest hurdle to overcome is always execution. Surrounding noise and opinions from various big players can disrupt the rhythm at any time. Yesterday, BTC was generally moving upward, breaking through the 15-minute downtrend line on a pullback, so I followed my plan to go long on BTC, SOL, and HYPE. Watching a live stream in the evening, I forgot that the host's judgment was just a personal subjective interpretation. My discipline was insufficient, and influenced by the opinion, I reversed my position with one click, causing my operation to distort. Now some positions have stopped out with losses, and although the remaining ones have stop losses set, they are stuck in a passive situation of holding on. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ $BTC #Can ordinary people earn pocket money with Bitcoin BTC?#
Can ordinary people earn pocket money with Bitcoin? Yes, but don't expect too much. When most people hear "making money with BTC," their first thoughts are buying low and selling high, mining, or some kind of "passive interest earnings." For ordinary people, these paths either have high entry barriers, high risks, or the time cost and returns are simply disproportionate. More realistic ways include: getting paid with existing skills
Writing, design, translation, editing, consulting—there are actually clients willing to pay in BTC. Through Lightning tips or direct invoicing, you effectively exchange your labor directly for Bitcoin. This is the cleanest and least likely to be exploited method. How much you earn depends on your skills, not the market.
Everyday spending cashback
Some credit cards or shopping cashback platforms reward in BTC. The amounts are small, more like "saving a little on the side," so don’t expect to pay rent with this.
Referrals, content, small tasks
Exchange invitations, writing educational content, creating graphics—sometimes you can get a little reward. Faucets and watching ads for satoshis usually pay very low hourly rates and are prone to phishing sites, making them very poor value.
Not suitable for most ordinary people: mining yourself: electricity costs, equipment, and difficulty no longer suit small personal operations.
Frequent trading: fees and emotional costs will eat up your pocket money first.
Putting coins on platforms to earn interest: platform risks are real; these are not banks.
Various "guaranteed returns" and "cloud mining profits": nine times out of ten, these are scams.
In short, Bitcoin is more like an asset.$NEAR has doubled, and institutional money is still pouring in aggressively.
NEAR's recent surge is really fierce, climbing from just over $2 all the way above $4. Bitwise's NEAR staking ETP asset size has also surpassed $100 million.
At first glance, it looks like "institutions are starting to grab NEAR." But breaking down the numbers, it's not that simple — a significant portion of that $100 million actually comes from NEAR's own price increase, and the ETP shares haven't surged correspondingly recently.
However, the market's willingness to put NEAR back into the "institutional allocation" basket itself is a change. Europe already has NEAR staking ETPs, the US is pushing forward with NEAR ETFs, and recently tokenized stock ecosystems have been integrated.
Previously, people speculated on NEAR mostly based on the chain and narrative. Now some are calculating it differently: if institutional products really keep attracting capital, could NEAR gradually transform from a "highly volatile altcoin" into an asset that institutional funds can allocate?
If you're interested in NEAR, focus on real capital, not AUM numbers. It's easy for AUM to rise with the coin price; sustained share growth is the real buying pressure.Last night, he was still accumulating chips at the long position table.
112 million long orders, 8455 taken profit, 8.38 million profit in hand.
This morning, reversed at 85994, 500 short orders, 43.31 million staked.
On the same stretch, he goes back and forth eating.
From 8455 to 85994, 1539 dollars, not a market giveaway, but his conviction that there is one last bite above.
As for me, I stand against the direction.
He flips for profit, I hold the position with unrealized loss.
If this wave of short orders gets swept, will he turn to go long again?
Whales have no faith, only the next bite.
#加密总市值重返2.8万亿美元 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 $BTC #BTC has been charted as a bullish Quasimodo, but the biggest issue with pattern analysis is: anyone can draw a nice-looking chart before it's complete.
The $82,400 breakout is real, but a pullback to $68K–$70K is just one possibility.
If the price doesn't pull back and goes straight up, this pattern becomes invalid; if it breaks below $68K, the pattern also fails.
Patterns can be referenced, but they shouldn't be treated as a script.
$100K is a wish, not a target. $ZEC Wall Street's shelves have freed up another layer for it, and the coin price has hit a new high again.
Reaching this level with new channels opening up indicates that the money hasn't fully arrived yet; it's the shelves that are running short first.
1. 21Shares on European shelves: Physical ZEC ETP listed on Amsterdam and Euronext Paris exchanges, with a 2.5% fee. Another incremental channel opened besides the US ETF, lowering the threshold to buy ZEC even further.
2. Listed company narrative: Nasdaq-listed Cypherpunk brought mining veteran Amanda onto the board, the treasury increased holdings by over 3,000 ZEC, mining hashrate at 4.2 GSol/s. The listed company's balance sheet is starting to directly express a ZEC stance.
3. Thermometer: Up 94% in 30 days, one of the strongest double-level gains in a month. Today RSI is 77.9, the 7-day moving average at 1,513 beneath, the divergence has widened again.
This ticket profits from sentiment money, I've been saying this for three days. Resistance above at 1750, but keep position size under 10%, it runs faster than anyone when the tide goes out, stop loss at 1400. $UNI Continues to Reach New Highs:
First news: CME is preparing to launch UNI futures
CME announced plans to launch Uniswap futures on October 19 (under review).
This news means:
UNI is beginning to enter the traditional institutional derivatives trading system. CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is the world's largest and most strictly regulated derivatives exchange, and it is the main gateway for traditional Wall Street hedge funds, family offices, and large asset management institutions to participate in the crypto market.
Previously, CME's derivatives matrix almost exclusively served BTC and ETH. UNI becoming the first decentralized finance application layer token to enter the CME compliant derivatives market marks Wall Street's traditional compliant capital's full recognition of Uniswap's position in the global financial infrastructure.
Before, UNI was mostly: DeFi → DEX → Liquidity
Now there is an additional layer: UNI → Institutional Derivatives → CME
Second news: Arc protocol fee governance
Uniswap has already launched on Circle's Arc mainnet:
Currently, an extended governance vote on protocol fees is underway on Arc.
On-chain voting will begin after September 18–23.
This matter is more noteworthy for the UNI token itself than simply "Uniswap deploying to a new chain," because the governance proposal involves protocol fee collection and the UNI burn mechanism.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 #uni$BTC It is the cost of pricing regret$LIT
Exchange Net Flow No new reliable custody data;
The most recent verifiable data remains the net outflow of 78,641 LIT on 9/3
Vault Staking ~125M LIT (about 50% of circulating supply), 6% APR Strong lock-up (rewards include ~7.5M annual inflation)
Protocol TVL ~$596–615M, still about 6–9% below the 9/4 peak of $655M 🔴 Mildly bearish
billΞ.eth Associated Address 500K LIT ($2.07M) withdrawn on 9/14 with continuous monitoring showing no further activity, not deposited into CEX ⚪ Changed from mildly bearish to watch
Other Whales CoinStats analysis this morning indicates Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) turning positive, with large wallets rotating positions to buy LIT, but no verifiable new large transaction details provided 🟢 Sentiment is bullish, but evidence strength is weak
Buyback and Burn Cumulative 17.5M (7% of circulating supply); recent actual pace about 0.93M/month (928,000 in August), annualized about 11M, lower than July estimate 🔴 Deflationary pressure is relatively weak Yesterday's long position was stopped out, no avoidance, indeed a loss
Day before yesterday's profit: +85,260U
Yesterday's loss: -10,541U
For BTC and ETH, if broken yesterday, just accept it, no waiting or holding on
When the market pulls back, don't chase. Wait for confirmation signals before acting. Don't doubt the system because of one stop loss; stop losses should be decisive, and enter the market when it's time
Trading isn't about being right every time, it's about minimizing losses when wrong and holding on when right
Let's encourage each other
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Received margin call warnings more than ten times in one day, with my position hanging on the edge of a cliff. I've endured days like this. Now this $DOGE long position has profited more than tenfold. The market has answered that old question with results: the direction was right, and time is your ally.
Dogecoin started as a joke and survived through rounds of community relay. Elon Musk endorsed it, retail investors recharged their faith, and it followed the market's ups and downs, being shorted countless times. Every pullback, someone declared the story over; every stabilization, the bulls came back to take the chips. After several cycles, those who held on have been rewarded.
The difficulty in holding a position is not about being right, but about enduring. Margin call emails are not urging you to exit; they are asking if you still believe. Believers focus on direction, non-believers focus on volatility, and volatility does only one thing: transfer chips from the hesitant to the determined.
Of course, being bullish doesn't mean stubbornly holding on. Leave room in your position, keep leverage at a level where you won't be woken up by emails at midnight, and first give yourself space to make mistakes before talking about results.
The opponent of $DOGE bulls has never been the bears, but themselves who get off halfway. No matter how winding the road, if the direction is right, the destination remains unchanged.Oil prices fall for the second consecutive day: Brent crude drops below 100, Iran signals "willing to negotiate within a week," inflation alarm temporarily lifted
If the sharp drop the night before last was somewhat emotional, last night was basically driven by fundamentals continuing to align
International oil prices continued to decline on September 22
WTI closed down 1.24% at $94.59
Brent fell 1.09% to $99.25, once again breaking below the 100-dollar mark
The catalyst was market news that Iran is willing to resume contact within a week after the US eases military pressure
Supply side is also improving
Saudi Arabia’s damaged oil pipeline repairs are faster than expected, quickly easing market panic over physical supply disruptions
This is a solid positive for global risk assets
Oil prices are the master switch for current inflation expectations; when they soften
The market’s fear of further Fed rate hikes recedes, giving growth stocks room to perform
The Nasdaq’s ability to hit new highs last night was supported by oil prices holding the floor
Of course, the "easing" in the Middle East can flip faster than turning a page
Whether negotiations within a week can truly materialize and whether the Strait of Hormuz remains stable are both uncertainties
The more relaxed it is now, the more painful the reversals can be; oil prices must remain on the watchlistThe market over the past couple of days has somewhat proven the shorts wrong.
BTC has retaken 85,000 in this wave, with ETF funds flowing back and short liquidations basically fueling the market while burning the shorts. ETH is even stronger, retaking 2,700, indicating that risk appetite among funds is indeed returning.
But I still don't want to chase.
In this kind of market, the most common scenario is that after shaking out the shorts, it turns around and harvests the longs. The market makers never play fair with you.
So now I'm watching a few key levels:
BTC at 82,000 — if it holds, the short-term bullish structure remains; if it breaks below 82,000, this rebound needs to be reassessed. On the upside, watch 87,000 and 89,000; only a solid break above 89,000 opens room for further gains.
ETH at 2,680 is critical — if it holds, we continue to target 2,800; if it breaks below 2,680, the short-term strength starts to fade.
Right now, I prefer to wait for the market to show its own direction rather than guessing what it will do next second.
Not excited when it rises, not panicked when it falls, just execute when the levels are reached. The Nasdaq quietly hit a new high again, but the leader has changed: this time it's not Meta, but a collective uprising of the four storage giants.
After a crazy Tuesday, the US stock market clearly took a breather last night, but the structure is very interesting.
The three major indices diverged.
The Nasdaq rose 0.45% to 27,244 points, once again setting a new closing record.
The S&P closed flat, and the Dow fell 0.36%.
Meta, which surged 11% the day before, gave back 0.63%, while Amazon and Microsoft dipped slightly.
The real baton pass was to storage chips.
SanDisk rose over 6%, Micron rose 5%, Western Digital and SK Hynix rose over 3%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 2%, Nvidia rose slightly by 0.66% to close at $228.87.
AMD, which just broke the trillion-dollar mark, continued to fluctuate above the trillion-dollar line.
The logic of the funds is very clear.
The narrative "intelligent agents require massive computing power" sparked by Meta Muse
is spilling over from CPUs to memory and HBM, the tightest bottleneck.
After all, if an agent really runs tasks for you 7×24 hours, it consumes inference load, and storage is the first to run short.
The index is flat, but individual stocks are hot, indicating the market is not broadly rising but carefully reallocating money.
This kind of market tests stock picking the most; the phase of blindly buying beta may be over $TSLA
Trump frequently supports Tesla, can it really drive the stock price to surge?
Recently, Trump has repeatedly publicly endorsed Musk and made favorable remarks about Tesla, flooding the market. Many believe Tesla is about to start a big rally.
But objectively speaking: Trump's statements can only drive short-term emotional pulses, not sustain medium- to long-term trend rallies.
In the short term, Trump's public stance and calls for interest rate cuts can quickly boost market risk sentiment, attracting short-term funds to speculate, causing Tesla's stock price to rebound temporarily, which is a typical news-driven positive.
But don't overestimate the value of political verbal statements. On one hand, campaign rhetoric is not the same as implemented policy; Trump's past attitudes toward new energy subsidies and electric vehicle regulations have been inconsistent, and verbal support lacks substantive policy backing. On the other hand, the core logic of Tesla's stock price is always its own fundamentals such as sales, gross margin, and FSD progress, not politicians' opinions.
Besides, the cooperation between Trump and Musk is unstable, with multiple past disagreements, so market funds will not blindly bet long-term on this uncertain positive.
In summary: short-term emotional trading can be speculated on, but don't rely on "political positives" for medium- to long-term dreams. Tesla's rise and fall ultimately depends on its own performance delivery ability.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Bitcoin has returned above $87,000, and the total crypto market cap has returned to $3 trillion. This trend doesn't seem like a rapid rebound driven solely by retail investor sentiment. What's even more noteworthy is the liquidity side: spot ETFs first saw brief net outflows, then recovered nearly $600 million. Large funds did not exit at relatively high levels but continued to buy shares, indicating they remain optimistic about the medium- to long-term trend.
Although the growth in derivatives holdings is noticeable, it feels more like fuel for short squeezes. As prices keep rising, those trapped in short positions will feel increasingly uncomfortable, and concentrated liquidations may occur later. Right now, this is just the early stage of sentiment warming up, not yet at the peak of widespread excitement.
Next, focus on Ethereum. Bitcoin has already opened its upper range, so as long as the market doesn't experience a sharp drop, the probability of ETH catching up is high.
My position: If you miss BTC or ETH, don't chase; currently only keep DOGE long positions. The worst thing in a bull market is greed. If there is floating profit, move up to stop loss—protect your principal first, then discuss the layout; If you haven't entered, use small positions to test mistakes, and set your take-profit and stop-loss in advance. No matter how strong the market is, risk control always comes first. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高 $87,000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion #AMD市值突破1万亿美元, chip stocks collectively surged, closing #ZEC巨鲸3 8,000 short positions, losses exceeding $35 million On September 22, US and Iranian officials talked for a full three hours during the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Trump later told the media it was "very smooth" and "productive," and plans to talk again soon.
Geopolitical risk premiums declined, oil prices fell back, and risk assets collectively loosened up. Bitcoin took off directly that night.
The Nasdaq rose 0.45% on Tuesday, hitting new all-time highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 2%, SanDisk up 6.8%, Micron up 5%, SK Hynix up over 3%.
Global risk appetite is recovering. This is not just a crypto solo act; the entire risk asset class is moving upward.
BTC broke above the 200-day moving average, technically shifting from bearish to bullish. This moving average had long capped Bitcoin around $80,000 to $81,000, and after breaking through, the short-term structure clearly improved. Glassnode is more direct—Bitcoin has reclaimed all key long-term moving averages, having traded below them for about 300 days, signaling a trend reversal.
⚠️ But there is a warning you must know:
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin short liquidations totaled about $535 million, while long liquidations were only $77 million. The volume of shorts liquidated is 7 times that of longs.
What does this mean? This rally isn’t driven by buyers; it’s driven by forced buying.
Shorts bet on a price drop, but the price went up, forcing them to cover their positions—passive buying pushed the price higher.
What about spot buying? Binance’s overall long-to-short ratio is only 0.9026, and OKX’s is 0.93—short accounts still outnumber long accounts.
In plain language: real buying hasn’t entered on a large scale yet. The current price surge is due to short stop-losses, not long position building.
More subtly, Alphractal estimates that among unliquidated positions, longs already account for about 71%. Shorts were just liquidated, and long leverage is accumulating again.
The short squeeze has opened an upward space from $87,000 to $90,000—Deribit data shows open interest near strike prices of $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000 totals about $7.7 billion, so there is still plenty of ammo for short covering.
But whether the trend continues depends on whether support between $80,000 and $82,000 holds.
If it holds → This is the start of a trend reversal, with short covering plus spot buying taking over; $100,000 is not a dream.
If it breaks → This is just a brief short squeeze; the fireworks are over, time to exit.
Don’t get carried away by the fireworks of short liquidations.
A true bull market doesn’t need to rely on blowing out shorts to rise.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 🚨 #BTC reached $84K, and immediately some started saying "Everyone is waiting for a crash, so there will be a short squeeze first."
But "Everyone is bearish so it will rise" and "Everyone is bullish so it will fall" are both reverse-thinking slogans, not analysis.
What truly determines whether $84K can hold is whether the buying can absorb the sell orders above, whether ETFs have continuous inflows, and on which side the leverage is stacked.
Relying solely on the story of "shorts being squeezed" cannot support targets of $98K or even $170K.
A short squeeze can happen, but don't treat possibility as certainty. Holding $ETH for ten years earned 6500 times the return, but one swing trade lost 8.03 million!
When I saw this news, my first reaction wasn’t "The whale crashed."
It was that he finally couldn’t hold on anymore.
This person’s greatest strength was never trading skill, but the ability to hold. Buying at $0.31 and reaching $2,027, 6,500 times the value, it wasn’t about candlestick charts, it was about endurance.
But the market in 2026 was too grueling. ETH was cut in half from its peak, then sideways, then slowly declining, then declining even more. Even those who held for ten years began to doubt: Should I do something?
So he sold. Then the market rebounded. Then he bought back. Then he had fewer chips.
He used the method he was least good at to optimize what he was best at.
Holding for ten years is a skill; swing trading is an illusion.
8.03 million dollars bought a lesson:
Your cost basis can survive bull and bear markets, but your mindset cannot.$BTC $ETH $ZEC bears start to fight back!
Yesterday, people were still shouting $BTC would hit 90,000, but today it fell from 87,374 down to 85,770; $ETH dropped from 2,806 to around 2,750, and the market instantly turned red.
I reversed to short ETH at 2,781.8, currently around 2,749, with floating profits continuing to expand. The position isn't large, but this feeling is satisfying. 😏
$SOL also followed the decline, facing resistance near 117.9.
However, this time I’m not blindly chasing shorts; the stop loss has been moved up to break-even. If ETH rebounds to around 2,780, I’ll observe whether there’s an opportunity to add to the short.
Additionally, Strategy just resumed buying, adding 950 BTC, investing about 75.7 million USD, with total holdings reaching 846,000 BTC.
Costco’s Q4 earnings report will be released on September 24, and macro risk events continue to intensify.
The focus now isn’t guessing the top, but watching whether this pullback can form a true structural weakness.
#BTC #ETH #ZEC #SOL #CryptoHere are my true thoughts right now: short-term fluctuations can go any way, but I see the overall trend as upward. If there is a real drop, it's just a correction, not the end of the bull market.
The market has been consolidating at a high level all day, and there might be a dip overnight, which I don't deny. But looking at the nature of the correction—falling with shrinking volume, money buying around 85000—this kind of movement is quite normal within an uptrend and not a sign of a breakdown.
The logic is simple: ETFs and corporate treasuries have been accumulating, shorts are capitulating batch by batch, and the money hasn't left. What does a real top look like? When good news can't push prices up and volume spikes on sell-offs. That scenario isn't happening now.
I'm holding my long positions and will even add a bit if the correction is solid, but I won't chase highs or short recklessly—getting hit from both sides is the worst.
Sharp drops are common in a bull market; whether you can hold depends on your position size and mindset.
This is my personal market record and does not constitute advice.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 Recently, Ethereum L2 has once again attracted market attention. Especially Arbitrum, whose TVL has been continuously growing recently, currently around $1.5 billion, with over 20% growth in the past 30 days. $ARB Meanwhile, Arbitrum's daily transaction volume remains at the level of millions of transactions, and the overall transaction processing capacity of L2 has far exceeded that of the Ethereum mainnet. However, problems have also emerged. L2's revenue is increasing, but the actual money flowing to Ethereum seems not to be much. Thus, the claim that L2 is siphoning off Ethereum has resurfaced. From the revenue structure perspective, this doubt is not without basis. L2 charges users transaction fees, then pays Ethereum for data availability, proof verification, and settlement costs; the difference between the two is the income L2 can retain. Latest data shows Arbitrum's profit in the past 30 days is about $480,000, Base about $5.08 million, and Robinhood Chain as high as $43.74 million. The Arbitrum Foundation disclosed that in the first half of 2026, Arbitrum DAO earned $6.19 million in revenue, with the related protocol revenue gross margin exceeding 97%. On the other hand, after the Dencun upgrade, the cost for L2 to submit data to Ethereum has significantly decreased, and the Blob mechanism has directly changed L2's cost structure. Ethereum bears more of the data availability and final settlement, rather than charging high Gas fees directly to end users. Related research shows that since 2024, fees on both the Ethereum mainnet and L2 have significantly decreased Costco's Q4 earnings report is coming soon, with the market expecting earnings per share of about $6.53 and revenue around $94.9 billion. However, this time the sales figures may not be the most exciting part, as a large amount of monthly data has already been priced in by the market.
What I’m more interested in are three details: whether membership fee income continues to accelerate, if the renewal rate remains high, and whether gross margin improvements come from operational efficiency or from temporary factors like fuel profits and expense control. Costco’s most valuable asset isn’t the goods in its warehouses, but the trust relationship where consumers are willing to pay upfront and then shop. If the renewal rate remains strong after a membership price increase, it proves that Costco’s pricing power has not weakened.
The trouble is, even good companies can have overly expensive stock. When valuations already reflect “excellence,” earnings reports that merely meet expectations can disappoint. The real test that night isn’t Costco’s business, but how much investors are willing to pay for certainty.
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Strategy bought another 950 BTC, spending about $75.7 million. The familiar market script plays out again: financing, buying coins, increasing the BTC per share, then continuing to raise funds.
This machine is indeed charming when the wind is favorable, but its real engine is not BTC faith; it’s how high the capital market is willing to pay for Strategy’s stocks, bonds, and preferred shares. As long as the company’s valuation still has a premium relative to net coin holdings, issuing more shares can convert into more BTC; once the premium shrinks and financing costs rise, the flywheel will noticeably slow down.
Some in the community joke that it "buys high and sells low, insiders only." Though a harsh remark, it hits the market’s anxiety: the treasury strategy can’t be judged only by how much BTC is bought, but also by where the money comes from, how high the cost is, and how much dilution old shareholders face. I’m not against companies hoarding coins, but packaging financing ability as a perpetual motion machine will sooner or later be taught by the cycle. The real test is whether it can still calmly add positions when BTC falls.
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 Many people reflexively go long as soon as they see the funding rate is positive, which is a typical misinterpretation—the funding rate represents the cost of holding a position, not a directional signal. Currently, $BTC funding rate is +0.0034%, with longs continuously paying, indicating that leveraged longs still dominate, but the price has not accelerated upward. Instead, it is encountering resistance near the Bollinger upper band at 86738. This "paying but not rising" structure often means that selling pressure above is absorbing the momentum of the longs.
From a technical perspective, MA5=86305 has crossed above MA20=86218.6, showing a short-term bullish moving average alignment. RSI=59.7 is in a neutral-to-strong zone but far from overbought, indicating there is still room to rise; however, the MACD histogram is -73.32, still in the bearish zone, meaning momentum has not fully turned positive. This is the most direct reflection of the bulls and bears divergence. The Bollinger Bands [85698.9, 86738.3] are narrowing, with the last 30 K-lines showing only 2.19% amplitude, and low volatility often precedes a breakout. The Fear & Greed Index at 71 is in the greed zone, showing a hot but not extreme sentiment. Combined with the positive funding rate, the risk of a wick shakeout cannot be ignored—the lower boundary near 85700 is a liquidation-heavy zone fiercely contested by bulls and bears.
Directionally, I lean bullish but will only buy on pullbacks and not chase highs. BTC surged to $87,000, and the total crypto market cap returned to $3 trillion. The numbers are indeed impressive, but the "total market cap" is the easiest to create an illusion: as if there really is $3 trillion in cash lying in the market.
Market cap is just the last transaction price multiplied by the circulating supply. As long as marginal buyers are willing to raise prices, the entire stock of assets will be revalued. It is suitable for observing sentiment but does not equal net capital inflow. What is truly exciting is whether mainstream assets like ETH, SOL can take over after BTC breaks through, and whether stablecoin scale, spot depth, and on-chain activity can expand simultaneously.
I am somewhat optimistic about this rebound but do not want to call it a "full bull market" for now. If the rise is concentrated only in a few large coins, prices are hot but liquidity has not thickened, the $3 trillion may just be prosperity under the spotlight. The most powerful phase of a bull market is never BTC charging alone, but when capital is willing to continuously leave the sidelines.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 North Korean hackers have started "pretending to help you find a job," with 30,000 devices and over 7,000 crypto wallets falling victim! This is definitely not an ordinary phishing link. Multiple international organizations jointly revealed that the North Korean-linked hacker group WaterPlum has targeted programmers, Web3 developers, and IT professionals by impersonating recruiters, headhunters, and even AI, crypto, and NFT companies.
The trick is actually very much like regular recruitment: first contacting you, then arranging an interview, then sending you a "programming test," "project code," or asking you to solve a video conference problem. This is where the real danger lies—making you actively download and run malicious files.
Once a computer is implanted with a trojan, attackers can no longer just target wallets; they can further steal browser passwords, clipboards, keylogs, private keys, mnemonic phrases, and internal corporate data.
According to a joint report, this round of attacks affected more than 30,000 devices across more than 100 countries and regions, more than 7,000 crypto wallets were impacted, and at least approximately $10.71 million in crypto assets were stolen.
I think the biggest reminder for the crypto world is: the most dangerous attack right now might not be that you click a phishing link, but that you think you're attending a legitimate interview.
Especially for those working in Web3, exchanges, wallets, or DeFi, it's best to completely separate work computers from coin storage wallets. Do not run code, plugins, or installation packages directly from unfamiliar recruiters; Cross-verify project team identity, company domain name, and recruitment email.
In my personal judgment, this is one of the biggest risks to the future security of crypto assets$ZEC zec positive support
1. Continuous inflow of ETF institutional funds: Grayscale ZEC ETF continues to see net capital inflows. The expectation of institutions allocating to privacy coins is the core underlying driver of this round of ZEC's strong market rally, bringing sustained spot buying support.
2. NU7 upgrade approaching: The network upgrade on September 30 plus the ETF stock split is near, creating event-driven speculation in the market with high sentiment heat.
3. On-chain spot accumulation still exists: Large holders continue to withdraw coins from exchanges to hoard, indicating that long-term holdings have not all fled.
Today's emerging risk signals
1. Whale activity on exchange deposits: A whale address with large profits has transferred a large amount of ZEC to Coinbase for the first time in 10 months, signaling that some large funds are starting to take profits, which is a warning sign.
2. Technical indicators entering overbought territory: The daily RSI remains high near 70, showing signs of bullish momentum exhaustion. Although overbought conditions can persist in a strong bull market, once buying stalls, the correction could be very severe.
3. Potential regulatory shadow over privacy coins: As a privacy token, ZEC faces long-term regulatory uncertainty, and news can easily trigger rapid sell-offs.
4. Time window resonance: This week also sees Bitcoin quarterly options expiration, which will amplify market volatility. Due to ZEC's high elasticity, its price swings will be much greater than Bitcoin's. $ONE retail investors are turning bullish, big players are turning bearish, trading volume is shrinking, and 0.00515 has become a resistance level. If it were another market, I would have shorted it long ago. But with this one, I'm really afraid that if I enter, it will just pump.ETF IS CHANGING CRYPTO’S MARKET STRUCTURE
On Sept. 22, Spot ETF flows remained positive:
$BTC+$364.40M|$ETH+$71.34M|$SOL +$28.87M
But the signal is inflows:
$BTC $56.52B|$ETH $13.59B|$SOL $1.47B.
Prices: $BTC $86.24K|$ETH $2.75K|$SOL $118.01.
One day of strong inflows can be capital moving.
But when flows persist from $BTC→ $ETH→$SOL.
ETFs may not push prices—they are changing how markets absorb supply.
The question:as supply is absorbed,how much more capital will trigger true price discovery?ETF FLOWS ARE FADING — BUT $BTC & $ETH HAVEN’T BROKEN
September 22 data showed positive spot ETF flows:
BTC +$104.54M | Cumulative $56.26B
ETH +$37.70M | Cumulative $13.56B
Yet both remain near recent highs:
$BTC $86.49K vs $87.40K high
$ETH $2.76K vs $2.81K high
The interesting part isn’t that ETFs are still buying.
So where is the buying pressure coming from?
That’s the liquidity signal worth watching next.
@OKX 预言家 #BTC87KCryptoCap3T #DailyOrbit @OKX中文 $BTC is sitting near the highs after a sharp run-up, and this is exactly where I prefer to slow down rather than chase. Think of the market like a poker table: you don't need to play every hand. When the odds are unclear, folding is still a decision. Right now, BTC is consolidating after its parabolic move. Bulls chasing here risk buying into resistance, while bears opening aggressive shorts can easily become liquidity for another squeeze. Meanwhile, the market is watching several key catalysts:$BTC 这轮上涨，市场关注点开始从短线情绪转向机构资金动向。 据最新披露，Strategy 上周再度买入 950 BTC，总投入约 7570万美元，平均成本约 $79,670，全部使用现金完成，并未通过 ATM 增发融资。公司目前累计持有 846,000 BTC，约占比特币总供应量的4%。 与此同时，Strive 也继续扩大 BTC 储备，上周增持 1,355 BTC，平均价格约 $79,475，持仓升至 26,355 BTC。 ETH 方面，BitMine近期也持续增加储备，曾单周增持 27,180 ETH，持仓接近 596万枚，机构资金对主流资产的配置仍在持续。 而市场价格端同样出现明显变化： 📈 BTC 一度冲至 $87,381，重新站上阶段高位； 🌐 加密货币总市值重新回到 3万亿美元上方； 💰 机构增持、现货ETF资金回流以及空头回补，共同推动这轮上涨。 但这里也要注意：机构持续买入是需求端的积极信号，却不等于价格一定会单边上涨。 短线真正值得观察的是 $85,000 能否转化为有效支撑，以及 $87,000 附近突破后能否继续放量。 如果 BTC 能稳住关键区域，市A whale's losing short is usually a footnote. This one is a liquidity map. Garrett Jin, an internal BTC OG representative, closed all 38,000 $ZEC short contracts inside 90 minutes for a $35 million hit, with cumulative losses on the account exceeding $12 million. The forced buyback alone lifted $ZEC from 1490 to 1530. He had been building that position since June, held it nearly three months, and capitulated near 1490. Then the on-chain check: the same wallet still holds 202,000 physical $ZEC, wDay 24, a single-day loss of ¥8,175.30. The cumulative profit and loss fell back to -¥8,175.30. $BTC $ETH
The market on September 22 was an epic short squeeze frenzy.
Bitcoin surged from around $76,000, breaking through the $86,000 mark, reaching an intraday high of $87,234, a new eight-month high. Ethereum rose in sync, breaking through $2,800 for the first time since late January this year. The total market capitalization of the crypto market climbed back above $3 trillion, increasing by about $740 billion since the end of August.
The liquidation data is staggering. In the past 24 hours, over $1 billion was liquidated across the network, with short liquidations reaching as high as $840 million, accounting for more than 80%. Bitcoin short liquidations were $536 million, Ethereum short liquidations were $145 million, and a total of 135,394 people worldwide were forcibly liquidated.
Why did it rise so crazily? Three forces resonated.
First, the CFTC rapidly advanced the regulatory framework. Just two days after the Senate rejected the CLARITY Act, on September 17, the CFTC submitted two crypto asset market rules to the White House, allowing unregistered exchanges to offer leveraged trading under CFTC supervision without waiting for new legislation. The regulatory vacuum may not be as long as the market fears.
Second, ETF funds poured in wildly. On September 21, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $1 billion in a single day, the largest single-day inflow since October 2025. BlackRock's IBIT remains the main force.
Third, Ethereum whales collectively increased their positions. An early ICO address from 2015 bought back 8,492 ETH near $2,794, investing about $23.72 million. Another whale has accumulated 39,501 ETH since July at an average price of only $1,974, with unrealized gains exceeding $30 million.
And I lost ¥8,175 on this day.
The reason is simple—I chased longs after Bitcoin broke through $84,000, but then Bitcoin encountered strong resistance between $86,000 and $87,000, pulling back to around $85,000. My long position was swept out during the pullback. The loss of ¥8,175 was the price paid for chasing the high.
It’s been twenty-four days. From -¥8,487 to +¥43,281, from four consecutive days of huge losses to recovering yesterday, then losing again today. This ¥8,175 loss taught me one thing: in the frenzy where shorts are being bloodied, don’t rush to go long; when the market is at its craziest, losing less is winning.The top-rated coin, I put it on the "Do Not Trade" list.
I'm taking the temperature of the crypto market. Today's temperature: spring.
I scanned through 200 contracts, and the system is willing to touch only 13.
That coin with a score of 81 isn't structurally bad; it's just that the recent trend level is too far from the current price, so the odds don't work out.
High scores and profitability are two different things.
I don't give trade calls; I only say which positions shouldn't be touched.Is the capital coming back?
The most noteworthy thing in the market today is not a sudden surge in some altcoin, but the changing structure of capital.
BTC recently climbed back near $85,000, even breaking through $87,000 at one point; more importantly, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $999 million on Monday, marking the highest single-day inflow in nearly 11 months. The ETH spot ETF also recorded a net inflow of about $270 million during the same period.
What does this mean?
First, institutional funds are returning to risk assets.
Second, BTC's rise is beginning to be driven by both ETF inflows and short covering.
Third, ETH is starting to see follow-on capital, and market attention may gradually spread from BTC to mainstream altcoins.
But the biggest mistake here is to declare a "full bull market" just because BTC is rising.
What is more worth observing now:
👉 Whether ETF net inflows can continue
👉 Whether BTC can hold above $85,000
👉 Whether ETH can continue to break through key resistance
👉 Whether altcoin trading volume can truly expand
👉 Whether capital will continue to spread from BTC to high Beta sectors
My understanding: it looks more like "risk appetite reopening" rather than a confirmed full-blown frenzy stage.
If BTC remains strong, ETH follows, and altcoin volume expands simultaneously, then what the market can truly look forward to may just be beginning.📈SNDK rises nearly 7% approaching 1900, Rosenblatt initiates coverage with a target price of 2400
📊 Market Analysis:
SanDisk closed up 6.82% on Tuesday at $1887, marking the highest close since July. The key catalyst is Rosenblatt's first coverage, assigning a "Buy" rating and a $2400 target price, believing AI is re-pricing NAND from a "commodity" to a "key component of AI infrastructure."
📈 Trading Insights:
Analyst Kevin Cassidy points out that SanDisk has signed multi-year floor price agreements with its 8 largest NAND customers, covering about 65% of production for fiscal year 2028, with signed agreements guaranteeing minimum revenue of at least $93.9 billion. Bank of America channel research also confirms that the average NAND price rose over 15% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, and cloud providers have already accepted further price increases for Q1 next year.
📈 Key Levels:
🟢 Support: 1791-1823, short-term defense line
🔴 Resistance: 1905-1920, breakout target 2000-2100
⚠️ Risk level: 1750, a break below deepens the pullback
🧠 Logic:
NAND contract prices are clearly rising, and floor price agreements lock in downside protection during the cycle. However, after a more than 13% rise in one week, the RSI has entered overbought territory, reducing the cost-effectiveness of chasing higher prices. The storage supercycle is not over, but timing entry is more important than direction.
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注
#AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 ETH Morning Analysis
Waiting for structure, a wild bull market is about to begin!
ETH this morning still maintains the sideways range of 2720-2750 from last night, with no new clear structure emerging throughout the day, so we remain on the sidelines, waiting for structure confirmation before making any moves.
Reviewing my own trades, I have frequently missed selling opportunities recently. The root cause is a lack of firm conviction in my positions. After being hit by the market last week, I have been hesitant this week. My discipline to myself: try to avoid opening positions during upcoming data release windows to reduce speculation based on news-driven market moves.
Currently, most market participants are divided into two camps: some are waiting for an upward breakout, while others are waiting for a deep pullback. The market currently has the feel of sideways movement substituting for a decline, with bulls and bears temporarily deadlocked.
It is important to pay close attention to the large options expiry this Friday, which will bring significant disturbance to the market. The key options pain point below is at 2400. Whether the market can pull back to this level will give us another chance to get back in. Let's wait and see.On September 22, Bitcoin surged intraday to $87,363.
Two weeks ago, this figure was still hovering around $76,000.
But has the money in your account kept up?
First, let's look at a chilling data point.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated $612 million.
Among them, short positions liquidated $535 million, while long positions only $77 million.
The ratio is — 7 to 1.
This is not retail investors buying. This is a group of short sellers being forced by the market to close their positions with real money.
The higher the price rises, the more they have to buy. The more they buy, the higher the price goes.
This is a short squeeze.
When Bitcoin broke through the 200-day moving average at $80,000 to $81,000, that level held the densest short positions from the past few months. The 200-day moving average was effectively broken for the first time in 300 days.
Shorts held on for months, only to be met with a knife instead of a drop.
But don't rush to celebrate.
Look at the long-short ratio data.
On Binance, by number of accounts, the long-short ratio is 0.9026. On OKX, it's 0.93.
There are still more short accounts than long accounts.
What does this mean? Most retail investors are still shorting.
They haven't given up. They're just holding on, adding positions, waiting for a pullback.
If the price continues to rise — $87,000, $88,000, $90,000 — this group will be forced to surrender a second wave of chips. Deribit data shows that near the $90,000 to $100,000 strike prices, open interest in options totals about $7.7 billion.
That’s not a resistance level. That’s the entrance to the short sellers' graveyard.
One signal many overlook.
The MVRV ratio, an on-chain valuation metric, has risen to 1.62.
It crossed above the 365-day moving average.
This crossover last appeared in early 2019, and before that in early 2023.
What happened after those two times, I don’t need to say.
But note — the current MVRV is 1.62. At historical bull market tops, this number was above 3.7.
Far from overheating. Far from a crash. This is the early stage of valuation repair.
CryptoQuant directly gave a target: if MVRV can hold above 1.62, Bitcoin could reach $126,200.
So what stage are we really at now?
A short squeeze can drive a pulse-like surge. But a trending market requires spot buying to take over.
What is spot buying doing currently? ETFs have continuous inflows. On September 18 alone, net inflows were $433 million, with Fidelity taking $310 million.
But year-to-date, Bitcoin ETFs still have a cumulative net outflow of about -$1 billion.
Institutions are picking up chips, but they’re picking up cheap chips. They won’t chase at the top.
Key levels to watch closely.
$80,000 to $82,000 — this was a previous resistance zone, now turned support. Hold it, and the breakout is valid. Fail to hold, and this is just a brief short squeeze.
$87,000 to $90,000 — the next substantial test. Deribit’s options data piles $7.7 billion here; shorts are not dead yet.
Finally, a harsh truth.
Bitcoin rose 13% from $76,877 to $87,363 this round.
How much did your position increase?
If your coins are still there, congratulations. If you sold at $76,000 and are now hesitating whether to chase —
you didn’t sell coins, you sold your market judgment. BTC breaks above 87,000—what should WIF, PEPE, and DOGE do? I'll lay out my trading plan directly! This round of Meme is no longer just about following the rally; it's clearly entering a phase of high beta capital spread. PEPE, WIF, and DOGE have all recently seen breakouts, and their breakouts are accompanied by noticeable volume increases, indicating that short-term funds are indeed entering the market.
But the biggest question now isn't "can it still rise?" but rather what position after chasing in proves your judgment was wrong.
Personally, I would do this:
(1) WIF: After breaking through $0.232, it is not recommended to chase the rally directly.
The 0.232 area is the core neckline of this breakout; prioritize waiting for confirmation on pullback. If it pulls back to the 0.232–0.24 range and then rises with increased volume, consider entering in batches; The first target is $0.28–$0.30, then look for a stronger move near 0.33. Conversely, if the price falls below 0.232 on high volume and fails to rebound, then withdraw first. WIF's breakout this round is a structure lasting 9 months, so the key is whether the breakout level can become support.
(2) PEPE: has the greatest elasticity, but is also the one I least recommend chasing highs.
Currently, the area around 0.00000456 is an important breakout zone, and the current price has clearly pulled away, so it's better to wait for a pullback rather than to see a big bullish candle and then rush in. A pullback near 0.0000045—0.0000047 can help stabilize with reduced volume, so consider buying in batches; The first target is 0.0000053, and after a breakout, look at 0.000