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#USIranTalksProgress U.S. and Iranian representatives have held indirect talks through mediators at the United Nations, with the Strait of Hormuz and an end to hostilities among the main issues. The discussions appear to be a diplomatic opening, but both sides still disagree on sanctions, shipping access and the sequence of any agreement.
Markets have reacted positively to signs of progress, particularly through lower oil prices. However, the situation remains fragile because even a single military incident could reverse the mood. My view is that energy traders should watch whether shipping through Hormuz actually improves. Diplomatic language is encouraging, but a durable market impact requires verified changes on the ground.$UNI surged then pulled back, so I reversed and opened a short 👊
$UNI climbed from 8.683 to 10.944 today, now at 10.371, up 12.97 points. CME Group plans to launch standard and micro UNI futures on October 19, and this institutional adoption news directly pushed it up. Looking at the 15-minute chart, after hitting 10.944 it dropped sharply, leaving a long upper shadow. The BOLL upper band was pierced then retreated, STOCHRSI is at 23, indicating short-term oversold but with obvious selling pressure at high levels.
Such a sharp rally driven by news often sees a pullback after the peak, so chasing longs has poor risk-reward. I reversed to a small short, betting on a correction first, with a stop loss set above 10.55, aiming for quick in and out.
Any brothers in the comments riding the same trade? 🙈#Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？ #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #OKX星球话题来啦 It has climbed from around $1.5 to nearly $4.5, almost a 3x move. I’m starting small rather than going all in, with a short entry around $4.477. A lot of traders are watching the $5 level, but after such a strong run, I’m expecting volatility to increase. If momentum continues, I’ll reassess instead of blindly adding. As for $UNI, I originally planned to short the rally, but the momentum looks much stronger than expected. The broader market is also holding firm, so I’m waiting for a clearer setu$ZEC Here, the shorts are probably almost completely liquidated.
After a small-scale breakout, it didn't continue to accelerate upwards and repeatedly tested the previous high, showing signs of a false breakout.
If it is confirmed to be a false breakout and starts to pull back, the first key support to watch is in the 1380‑1400 range.Gold's test is whether committed buyers can outlast the cost of holding it. High real yields and a strong dollar remain headwinds, even as ETF holdings reach a record and central banks add exposure.
My read: structural demand may cushion gold, but cushioning a decline is different from powering another rally. The bullish case needs sustained buying, not just ambitious targets.
#GoldVsHighRates If every rally is seen as "shorts building positions," it might just be the market finding excuses to justify a bearish outlook.
#BTC keeps seeing heavy volume below resistance—not necessarily shorts piling up, but possibly buyers gradually eating through sell orders.
Once resistance is broken, those positions previously labeled as "short covering" could instead turn into fuel for a short squeeze.
You can stay bearish, but don’t interpret every uptick as a trap.#CostcoQ4EarningsWatch BTC has stayed around 86,000 for two consecutive days, but ETH failed to break 2,800, while SOL is still holding above 118. The most noteworthy conflict today is BTC stabilizing its trend, ETH still digesting pressure, and SOL continuing to seize resilience — the major coins are no longer rising together.
#BTC continues turnover at high levels
#Mainstream coins begin to diverge in strength
$BTC is currently around 86,700; today's low was 86,000 and high 86,800. The 86,000–86,200 range has become the first support; upward resistance is at 87,000, and only after firmly standing above that can we look toward the previous high at 87,400. A further breakthrough would open the chance to approach 90,000. If it falls below 85,500, beware of expanded high-level volatility.
$ETH is currently about 2,750; after failing to break near 2,800 yesterday, it retreated again. Support is first seen at 2,720–2,740; resistance remains core at 2,780–2,800. Only after firmly standing above 2,800 can ETH be considered to have entered a new trend phase.
$SOL is currently about 118.5; 115–116 has become the first defense, with 120 still a key psychological level above. After breaking through, look toward 123–125.
This lineup: BTC waits for 87,000, ETH waits for 2,800, SOL waits for 120. The market is not lacking upward momentum now; what really needs confirmation is who can turn previous highs into new floors. Privacy coins are back on the tape, and $ZEC is doing the heavy lifting. The token traded near $1,503 intraday, having printed a session high of $1,566 and a low of $1,444, roughly 2% below the prior close. The headline number undersells the mechanics: a push toward $1,560–1,600 was sold hard, and the day's range now spans more than 8% of spot. That is not drift. That is a positioning fight. The structure still leans bullish. Since September, $ZEC has repriced violently, setting an all-time highDay 24, a single-day loss of ¥8,175.30. The cumulative profit and loss fell back to -¥8,175.30. $BTC $ETH
The market on September 22 was an epic short squeeze frenzy.
Bitcoin surged from around $76,000, breaking through the $86,000 mark, reaching an intraday high of $87,234, a new eight-month high. Ethereum rose in sync, breaking through $2,800 for the first time since late January this year. The total market capitalization of the crypto market climbed back above $3 trillion, increasing by about $740 billion since the end of August.
The liquidation data is staggering. In the past 24 hours, over $1 billion was liquidated across the network, with short liquidations reaching as high as $840 million, accounting for more than 80%. Bitcoin short liquidations were $536 million, Ethereum short liquidations were $145 million, and a total of 135,394 people worldwide were forcibly liquidated.
Why did it rise so crazily? Three forces resonated.
First, the CFTC rapidly advanced the regulatory framework. Just two days after the Senate rejected the CLARITY Act, on September 17, the CFTC submitted two crypto asset market rules to the White House, allowing unregistered exchanges to offer leveraged trading under CFTC supervision without waiting for new legislation. The regulatory vacuum may not be as long as the market fears.
Second, ETF funds poured in wildly. On September 21, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $1 billion in a single day, the largest single-day inflow since October 2025. BlackRock's IBIT remains the main force.
Third, Ethereum whales collectively increased their positions. An early ICO address from 2015 bought back 8,492 ETH near $2,794, investing about $23.72 million. Another whale has accumulated 39,501 ETH since July at an average price of only $1,974, with unrealized gains exceeding $30 million.
And I lost ¥8,175 on this day.
The reason is simple—I chased longs after Bitcoin broke through $84,000, but then Bitcoin encountered strong resistance between $86,000 and $87,000, pulling back to around $85,000. My long position was swept out during the pullback. The loss of ¥8,175 was the price paid for chasing the high.
It’s been twenty-four days. From -¥8,487 to +¥43,281, from four consecutive days of huge losses to recovering yesterday, then losing again today. This ¥8,175 loss taught me one thing: in the frenzy where shorts are being bloodied, don’t rush to go long; when the market is at its craziest, losing less is winning.This market situation punishes the disobedient: both bulls and bears are penalized, itchy hands get cut
BTC: Fluctuating around 86,000, up about 13% in four days, touched 87,300. Bears just liquidated, over 1 billion liquidations in 24 hours, shorts account for 535 million. Resistance at 87,000–88,000 and 90,000 above, still far from the previous high of 126,000, difficult both ways.
ETH: Following along, narrow swing between 2770–2818, stuck around 2800. Holding above 2700 targets 2%–3%; ETH/BTC shows bearish divergence, losing 2560–2565 short-term structure turns bearish.
USELESS: Rebounded over 35%, market cap 344 million. The bullish news has passed, new whale bought 2.28 million USDC, RSI 70.7 overbought. Don’t stand on the peak when the tide recedes.
ZEC: The only privacy coin, after breaking 1650, now at 1617, up over 10% in 24 hours, nearly doubled in 30 days. 4-hour liquidation 13.4 million, highest in the network, shorts 12.9 million. Strong, but chasing highs risks pullbacks.
High-level exhaustion, bears cleared, bulls’ leverage rising again, open long positions account for 71%. Don’t get itchy, wait for direction.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Sector Rotation
BTC: Back above the long-term moving average, structure repair is the strongest in nearly 300 days. Supports at 85,200, 84,000, 83,000; resistances at 86,800, 87,400, 88,000-90,000. The original dense short zone between 83,000-86,000 has flipped to short-term support. Medium-term bias is bullish, but chasing the current price has low cost-effectiveness; waiting for a pullback is safer.
ETH: On-chain and institutional funds are accumulating simultaneously. Supports at 2,700, 2,640-2,560; resistances at 2,800, 2,890, 3,000. 2,700 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; holding it means 2,800-3,000 can still be tested; losing it means watching the strength of support around 2,640.
SOL: ETF funds are entering, but contract positions account for a high proportion. Supports at 114, 110-107; resistances at 120, 123-125. Maintaining a strong structure above 114; breaking below risks accelerated pullback. Leverage heating up significantly faster than spot demand.
The upward drive of the three major mainstream coins BTC, ETH, and SOL has shifted from weak recovery to short covering combined with ETF fund inflows. What really needs caution now is not an immediate major correction, but mistaking a short squeeze for a new trend and chasing longs near 86,000, 2,760, and 119.
Crypto total market cap returns to 3 trillion. Today's focus: US PMI data and the meeting window between Trump and General Secretary Xi.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Act Three: The "Boom" of L2 and the "Hollowing Out" of the Mainnet
From 2024 to 2025, Ethereum completed two major upgrades: Dencun and Pectra, Fusaka.
Dencun introduced Proto-Danksharding (EIP-4844), which significantly reduced Rollup transaction costs through "blob transactions." Pectra enabled ordinary wallets to have smart contract functionality, and Fusaka introduced PeerDAS, increasing Rollup data throughput by 8 times.
L2 gas fees dropped from several dollars to less than 1 cent. This is a huge victory for user experience.
But the cost of this victory is the collapse of mainnet revenue.
In 2025, Ethereum L2s earned $129 million in revenue, but they only paid $10 million to the Ethereum mainnet. In the week ending March 30, 2025, Ethereum earned only 3.18 ETH in revenue from Blob fees. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 In the past month, OKX's activities on X Layer have clearly shifted from infrastructure construction to preparations for market opening. 1. What was actually advanced in September? Prioritized, the truly important progress is as follows: 1. Integration of USD and capital entry Native USDC, CCTP, and USDG have entered X Layer, with Circle directly promoting the use of USDC in OKX's spot, futures, and margin markets. → Solves the fundamental problem of institutional capital inflow/outflow and cross-chain scheduling on X Layer. 2. Officially started actively supplementing liquidity X Layer launched up to $5 million in RWA liquidity incentives, currently in the second round, and added RWA Meme trading incentives. → Shift from "having assets" to "competing for funds and trading volume." 3. External trading markets have begun to appear RWAperp has launched an RWA perpetual contract market on X Layer. → Indicates that external teams have started trying to operate independent trading venues on X Layer, but there is currently no evidence proving they have used Exchange OS. 4. Officially competing Builder Dev Day explicitly requires participating projects to deploy operational tokenized stocks, RWA markets, Launchpad, or Meme applications on X Layer, and submit real contracts, code repositories, and product demos. → Reserves "market builders" in advance for the future Exchange OS. 5. The most critical step remains The Fear and Greed Index has surged to 71 in the greed zone, so why did $FORM close down against the trend?
The answer lies in the sector rotation and the mismatch with the overall market linkage: the greed sentiment is mainly driven by high-volatility assets like $MUBARAK, which surged 14.16% in 24h with a trading volume of 103M, clearly attracting capital to the hotspots; meanwhile, $FORM's trading volume is only 7.0M, making it a cold asset being drained of funds. The BTC-driven effect is diluted here, and the price movement is more dominated by its own technicals.
From a technical perspective, $FORM is currently priced at 0.3085, with MA5=0.31128 having crossed below MA20=0.31305, indicating a short-term bearish moving average alignment; RSI=45.1 is in a neutral to slightly weak zone, MACD histogram at -0.001025 maintains bearish momentum, and the price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 0.302616, with no effective stabilization signal yet. The funding rate of +0.0050% shows that bulls still have a slight willingness to pay, but it is insufficient to reverse the structure. The bias is bearish; a rebound to the 0.311–0.313 area (MA5/MA20 resistance zone) can be lightly shorted, with take profit 1 at 0.3026 (lower Bollinger Band) and take profit 2 at 0.2950 (extended previous low). If volume increases and the price stabilizes above 0.313, the bearish logic fails, and stop loss should be set at 0.3160 (above the lower Bollinger Band buffer).🚨 $BTC’S RALLY MAY HAVE STARTED BEFORE THE ETF MONEY ARRIVED
Bitcoin pushed above $87K this week, while U.S. spot ETFs recorded nearly $1B in inflows on Monday. But the timing is interesting: BTC had already started moving before the ETF session was recorded.
That suggests the rally may have begun with short covering, then gained extra fuel from institutional ETF demand.
#BTC87KCryptoCap3T
#USIranTalksProgress
#CostcoQ4EarningsWatch $UNI was a live case study last night: spot positions won easily, while contracts got hit from both sides.
CME announced it would list UNI and BCH futures. UNI first surged to 9.7, and those chasing longs rushed in seeing the good news. Then a sharp drop slammed it back to 8.7, wiping out all long positions. Everyone thought the good news was fully priced in and it was over. But after the shakeout, it directly shot up to 10.85.
So, hold onto spot, avoid contracts. If you want to make money.$ETH chooses to consolidate with reduced volume after Bitcoin's new high, digesting profit-taking, and maintaining a steady trend;
Meanwhile, ETH continues to be favored by funds due to ETF incremental expectations, ecosystem narratives, and high elasticity attributes, resulting in a short squeeze with consecutive bullish candles.
However, differentiation risks appear today:
1. BTC's new high stagnates, the overall market profit effect begins to contract, and incremental funds at high levels slow down;
2. After ETH's continuous rally, there is no deep correction on the chart, causing serious accumulation of floating profit chips;
3. Long positions on the contract side remain high, retail investors' chasing sentiment concentrates on ETH, while major players show stronger intentions to shake out positions.
In brief: The strongest trending coins often experience the largest subsequent volatility and the harshest shakeouts.
Key details of today's market
1. High attempts lack volume
Multiple attempts to break through the 2780–2800 resistance zone have failed to show volume, a typical case of "emotional surge without capital follow-up."
2. Pullbacks are supported
Each slight pullback to 2720–2730 is quickly bought up, indicating that mid-term bullish funds have not withdrawn and the bottom support is solid.
Key resistance and support levels
Short-term strong resistance: 2780–2800
This is the 90-day high suppression zone and the biggest bottleneck for bulls currently. Any volume-less breakout is considered a bull trap. Only a volume-backed hold above 2800 can open the path to 2900+.
Short-term strong support: 2700–2710
The short-term trend lifeline; breaking below this leads to an hourly-level pullback and repair, with further support expected near 2650. $ETH Last time I wrote about FIL, I stared blankly at around 0.95, thinking, "This coin is probably about this now." Looking back today, I miscalculated. Its current price is 1.0548, 24-hour +5.51%, 7-day +29.23%, 30-day +39.42%. All three cycles are positive, and the longer they get, the stronger they get. First, note today's structure. 24-hour high 1.0648, low 0.9723, amplitude about 9.5%. 7-day high also 1.0648, low 0.9462. Note these two highs are the same number — the current price of 1.0548 is less than 1 cent below the 7-day high. This is the most eye-catching bar today. Now let's look at the data I care about most: FDV and market cap. Market cap is $87.51 million, but FDV is $2.06 billion, exactly 2.36 times market cap. Circulating supply is 830761231. To put it plainly: only a portion of the market is circulating right now; the other large portion hasn't been released yet. What does this mean? It means that every future unlock is a potential test of selling pressure. The reason prices are rising now is because the test hasn't reached yet. The derivatives side, however, is very calm. Funding rate is 0.0023%, open interest is 17401045, and trading volume is $103.5 million. If the fee rate is low, it means leveraged funds chasing the high haven't flowed in yet; this rebound is driven by spot goods. For a stock with a circulating market value of less than 900 millionFirst, I couldn't find out: who bought this rally. 24-hour low 261.0, high 350.0, current price 340.0, up 28.35%. Trading volume was $383.9 million. The data only tells me what happened, not why. So don't ask me which institution entered the market—I don't know, and no one says they do. Second, what I want to say: the funding rate has already hit the peak at 0.01%. This isn't overpriced; it's the upper limit. It means bulls are willing to pay the highest fee to hold on. Combined with open interest 102844, it means there really are people chasing this wave on the contract side. The peak rate is never a bullish signal; it's a crowding signal. The third thing I see clearly: the contrast. BCH 7-day +54.40%, 30-day +26.14%, 24-hour high equals 7-day high, both at 350.0. But it's still -91.04% away from the all-time high of 3785.82. A coin that's up 28% is still less than 10% of its ATH. This is the most awkward part of old coins—no matter how good the slope is, it can't recover its previous years. Now, let's talk about market cap. 6814900447 USD, 21st globally, circulating supply 20,093,109, FDV and market cap basically the same. No unlocking selling pressure, which is a good thing; But it also means no new stories to tell, only emotionally driven. This is the exact opposite of many projects that survive by unlocking expectations—BCH's supply is clean, but its ceiling is actually tougher because of that.ZEC has a pool that might become inaccessible after November 5th.
Zcash is going to launch NU7, and the $ZEC in the Sprout pool will be unspendable then.
Key rule: On October 20th, the mainnet activation will be decided.
No withdrawals; the proposal itself admits it might be permanently unspendable.
Trigger condition: The upgrade does not destroy tokens, it just locks them.
No one can guarantee if it can be restored in the future.
Even more outrageous is the block time being cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds.
Blocks will be produced nearly three times faster, but the halving cycle remains unchanged.
The biggest fear for privacy coins is not regulation, but welding their own doors shut.
I dare not touch such a pool; those relying on basic support can't afford locked funds.
Does anyone still have an old Sprout address?
#ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 $ZEC Pair SOL with two reference points: one is its own yesterday, and the other is the market. Let's compare it to the market first. SOL 24 hours +2.03%, BTC +1.19%, ETH +1.28%. SOL is the fastest performer among these three, with a current price of 119.06. It looks like SOL is leading, right? Don't rush. Compare it to itself. 7 days +23.10%, 30 days +27.65%. These two numbers are the real focus. In other words, over 80% of SOL's monthly gain was completed in the last seven days. The 2.03% increase in 24 hours is just a fraction of the last 7 days of 23%. Now, stacking the two benchmarks together, the contradiction emerges. If SOL is leading, why is its 24-hour lead (0.84 points more than BTC) much smaller than its 7-day lead (8.46 points higher than BTC)? The answer is: acceleration is slowing down. It surged sharply earlier, now it is slowing down. This can also be verified at the position. Current price is 119.06, 7-day high 119.96, 24-hour high 119.64. The difference between these three is less than $1, meaning SOL is moving close to the ceiling of this rebound. Still -59.21% below ATH of 293.31, there is plenty of room for gain, but today's move was very cautious. Here's another comparison. 24-hour turnover is $1.27 billion, open interest is 30,786🌍 The US-Iran contact signals easing, and risk assets moved first.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 On September 22, the two sides held about a 3-hour meeting in New York, marking the first contact since the ceasefire broke down in June. The market's main focus is not on "reaching an immediate agreement," but whether there is room for easing in the situation. Oil prices weakened, the Nasdaq continued to hit new highs, and risk appetite was clearly boosted.
🟠 $BTC is currently around 86.2K, with 87K–87.4K still a short-term resistance zone above. After a previous surge followed by a pullback, what matters now is whether the improved risk sentiment can translate into sustained buying rather than just a spike driven by news.
📌 Key support to watch below is 85.5K–85.7K; if it holds after a pullback, it indicates bulls are still absorbing selling; if it breaks below 85K again, beware that the news-driven gains may be quickly reversed.
🧠 The biggest variable this time remains the geopolitical situation. Positive statements do not equal a finalized agreement; subsequent statements and actual actions from both sides may still fluctuate.
👉 So, in the short term, watch the news; in the medium term, watch the capital flow. What truly determines whether BTC can continue to break upward is whether the price can hold key levels.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ 🚨 $BTC HAS A FLOW PARADOX RIGHT NOW
Bitcoin is holding around $86K, while U.S. spot ETFs just recorded another $364.4M inflow, extending the streak to four sessions.
But here’s the interesting part: the biggest ETF inflow came after BTC had already started moving higher. That suggests ETFs may be confirming the rally rather than creating the first impulse.
So the real signal now is whether spot demand can keep following through.
#BTC87KCryptoCap3T
#USIranTalksProgress
#CostcoQ4EarningsWatch September 23 Information Gap
-------------------
🔸Time Event 🔸Impact on Crypto
🔹22:05 Fed Governor Barr Speech (Economic Outlook and Housing, Chicago Fed Summit)
Additional confirmation: Fed Governor discusses economic outlook — combined with this morning Collins' warning of a hawkish tone "inflation significantly above 2% more likely," if Barr leans hawkish, the dollar will strengthen, suppressing crypto.
💠But still focus on Iranian President's UN General Assembly speech (Beijing 21:00–early morning 9:00 window)
Speech confirms easing / reopening commitment → oil prices continue to fall, BTC surges;
Speech toughens → oil prices rebound, BTC gives back gains at high levels.
---------------------$BTC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ 第一问：涨了多少？答：24 小时 +1.28%，现价 2772.87。BTC 同期 +1.19%。差 0.09 个百分点。这叫跑赢吗？严格说算，但算得很勉强。 第二问：那差距在哪？答：不在 24 小时，在更长周期。ETH 7 日 +15.53%，30 日 +13.61%；BTC 是 14.64% 和 12.40%。每一档都高一点点，像是一个人始终比你多跑半个身位。累积起来，才有区别。 第三问：这算同步吗？答：这才是关键。7 日高点 2806.96、低点 2645.01；BTC 是 87374.3 和 81275.9。两者的波动节奏几乎重叠。我的判断是，这轮不是 ETH 独立叙事，是板块 beta 顺带把它抬起来，它只是弹性大了一点点。 第四问：那真正的差异在哪？答：在资金费率。ETH 0.0065%，BTC 0.0018%。差 3.6 倍。持仓量 608544，成交额 68.2 亿。这组数字是说，愿意为 ETH 多头付溢价的人明显更多。费率是情绪最敏感的探针——大家对 ETH 的杠杆押注，比 BTC 更拥挤。 第五问：拥挤是好事还是坏事？答：这里我要诚实一点。费率偏高既可以读成"资金看CME has issued an "institutional trading entry ticket" for BCH, causing BCH to surge 20% directly.
On September 22, CME announced plans to launch BCH futures on October 19, pending regulatory approval.
After the news broke, $BCH surged over 20% at one point, rising from $260 all the way to $347,
with a market cap reaching $7 billion, currently fluctuating around $330.
Technically,
it has broken through the 200-day moving average at about $308 and the previous $240–$260 resistance zone.
In the short term,
$330–$347 is resistance, $308 is the first support, and $260 is strong support.
CME has issued an "institutional trading entry ticket" for BCH.
Institutions and quantitative funds can now directly use regulated futures to go long, short, hedge, and offset without needing to buy the spot first.
So essentially, this wave is:
CME futures expected trading + short covering + capital front-running.
But October 19 is the real test.
Right now, the hype is about "going live," but then it will be about "whether anyone uses it."
If after opening, volume and open interest continue to expand, it means institutions have truly arrived;
if it spikes then falls right after launch, that’s a typical expectation fulfillment. #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $BTC still has no liquidity above
The most recent rally surprised the market — the area above the price still looks almost completely empty
Everyone expects $BTC to continue pushing higher, which means the shorts haven't quickly accumulated enough to form a meaningful liquidity pool above
Meanwhile, the liquidity below is becoming increasingly interesting
We still have two main clusters:
First - $79K-$81K
Second - $74K-$76K
This is exactly why I don't expect a clean, direct rise to $90K
If the area above remains empty while liquidity continues to accumulate below, $BTC has a stronger reason to seek it out
My baseline scenario is a pullback to the $79K-$81K cluster first
Absorb liquidity, reset the market, then see if $BTC has enough fuel for the next rally
Currently, I'm watching the liquidity below Am I crazy for shorting ETH in a bull market?😭
ETH's candlestick shows a strong bullish trend, but I think around 2800 is a short-term top. I opened shorts at 2700 and 2800 respectively, and now the price is stuck at 2743, with an unrealized loss of over 60 U.
Looking at the market, last night the highest spike reached 2806.96 before falling back. It feels like the selling pressure above is really heavy, and the 24-hour low retraced to 2714. I'm betting this move is a "double top at a high level" shakeout correction.
Are there any brothers as stubborn as me shorting?
$BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $BTC touched 87000 and softened again, still watching 85000 below. Bitcoin has accumulated a lot of chips between 83000-86000. Since the 17th, ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, institutional funds are turning back, holding up better than I expected.
Now it’s about seeing if it can push once more and hold steady at 87500; if it holds, it could reach 89000-90000. If it doesn’t hold, repeated failed attempts to break 87000 with volume spikes and long upper shadows will make short-term profit-taking easy.
I don’t recommend chasing highs at this level, I’m even considering shorting. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Glamsterdam only specifies Q4, without giving a specific date; this is caution, not evidence of delay.
The official Ethereum roadmap still places Glamsterdam in Q4 2026, clearly stating that the date is not yet confirmed. The market likes countdowns, but the engineering team cannot trade a date for applause before testing is complete. For consensus upgrades, being a few weeks late is usually much cheaper than launching with known risks.
No specific date does not mean no progress. Testnet testing, client versions, specification freeze, and public testnets are more valuable milestones. Focusing only on the mainnet launch date overlooks the preparatory work that truly determines whether the launch can happen.
Of course, "safety first" should not become an excuse for indefinite delays. If milestones are repeatedly missed and issues remain unexplained for a long time, the market has reason to lower trust. The difference between caution and inefficiency lies in whether the team continuously publishes results and next steps.
For $ETH, the upgrade date should be treated as a delivery window, not a price guarantee. The roadmap should advance based on evidence to support real assets. Infrastructure must avoid turning testing into a ritual just to meet market calendars. Being able to explain why waiting is necessary is more professional than rushing to fulfill a promotional date.
The most important thing in infrastructure delivery is repeatable verification, not prematurely announcing a nice celebration day.The US and Iran talked for 3 hours in New York, Trump said "very good," and oil prices immediately dropped by $10. But this matter is not as optimistic as it seems on the surface.
Iran put forward three conditions: lifting the maritime blockade, unfreezing assets, and ending all frontline wars. They also said: if the US reduces military pressure, the Strait of Hormuz can reopen within 7 days. It sounds sincere, but the Iranian parliament speaker immediately added: the strait will not open before the conditions are met. This basically throws the ball back to the US.
Trump's side also did not concede. The talks were "at the US side's request," but he also said "either great or destroyed," keeping the military option on the table. To be clear, this is a tentative contact, not a ceasefire negotiation.
The real situation in the Strait of Hormuz is also complicated. The US military commander said that in the past two weeks, transport volume hit a six-month high, mines were cleared, and allies transported 1 billion barrels of oil out. But Iran insists the strait is "still blocked," and negotiations have stalled. Transporting oil on one hand while claiming blockade on the other—these messages just don't add up.
As for $BTC, the oil price drop is good for inflation expectations, and US Treasury yields can catch a short-term breather. But the US-Iran situation is too murky; they may get along well today and fall out tomorrow. $BTC is hovering around 77,000, not treating this as a trend-driven positive to speculate on. Let's wait to see if follow-up talks can land before drawing conclusions. The focus should still be on oil prices. $BZ $CL #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ 先说清楚我看到的顺序。24 小时之前，BTC 从 85070.2 这个低点往上抬，一路摸到 86930.0，然后就没劲了。振幅 2.19%，收盘落在 86671.3，涨幅 1.19%。这不是突破，这是一次被时间消化的横盘。 把镜头拉长一点，7 日高 87374.3、低 81275.9，区间跨度 7.50%，7 日累计 14.64%。所以真实的斜率是在前 5 天走完的，最近两天只是在高位反复擦边。30 日 +12.40%，说明这波不是突发，是慢慢爬。 成交额 61.6 亿美元，持仓量 30282，资金费率 0.0000177，也就是 0.0018%。三个数字放一起读：量能中性偏上，杠杆没有明显堆积，多头几乎不付溢价。说句不客气的话，这种费率水平下的上涨，多半不是靠合约推的。 市值那头几乎没有悬念。流通市值 1.742 万亿美元，FDV 同样是 1.742 万亿，差不到 900 万美元，流通量 20088034。供给释放基本结束，没有解锁抛压，也没有稀释预期。全球第一的位置，让它成为整个板块的定价锚。 相对位置也值得记一笔。历史最高 126080，现价距 ATH 还有 -31.23% 的空$FIL This week, the financial sector's move to blockchain has clearly accelerated.
It's no longer just about issuing tokens and discussing concepts; real businesses like stocks, payments, stablecoins, and bank settlements are starting to move onto the blockchain.
However, industry progress doesn't mean all Tokens will benefit.
What deserves more attention next is: real business, real revenue, and whether the value can ultimately return to the Token. #SoFi与万事达卡启动稳定币结算 #Apple、Google招聘稳定币相关人才，或进军加密支付？ How to trade the midday choppy market?
Set up short positions at 4343 with proper defense, and exit directly at 4332.
Midday is basically a range-bound oscillation, so don't blindly chase big moves.
In a choppy market, prioritize protecting your position, take profits when you have them, and accumulate little by little! $XAU Zooko himself even retweeted it. This really says a lot about the issue.
For Zcash's Sprout pool, after November 5th, the ZEC inside might become unspendable. It's not destroyed, it's directly locked.
In plain terms, the old version wallet addresses are no longer planned to be supported by the official team.
I've fallen into the same trap. When a certain chain upgraded years ago, I had some coins in an old address and didn't bother moving them. Later, the fees weren't even enough to transfer them out.
This time, NU7 also cut the block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. The network is faster, but users with Sprout pool coins have to take action themselves.
Don't bet on "it might be restored in the future." The proposal itself states it might be permanently unspendable.
If you hold old ZEC, move it out before the mainnet decision on October 20th.
Once is enough to fall into this kind of trap.
#ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 $ZEC 🔥 BTC surges to 87K, but does a $3 trillion market cap really mean $3 trillion in funds?
🟠 $BTC breaks through $87,000, and the total crypto market cap climbs back above $3 trillion — the numbers are indeed impressive. But market cap isn’t actual cash sitting in accounts; it’s price × circulating supply. Marginal buying pushes the price up, causing the book value of the entire asset stock to rise together.
📌 So, more worth watching than the “total market cap” is whether the rally is spreading. After BTC’s breakout, can major coins like $ETH and $SOL follow suit? Is the stablecoin supply growing? Are spot market depth and on-chain activity improving in sync? These factors help gauge the level of capital participation.
🧠 This rebound is clearly strengthening, but we can’t define it as a full bull market just because BTC hit a new high. If the rise is mainly concentrated in a few large coins, with hot prices but no obvious liquidity thickening, the market may still be fragile.
👉 A truly healthy market isn’t BTC alone continuously hitting new highs, but capital steadily spreading from the sidelines into more assets, with volume, liquidity, and market participation all heating up together.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ MET rose 25.87%, with all of the top eight futures gainers posting double-digit gains; But BTC fell 0.30%, ETH only rose 0.05%, and mainstream coins had almost no direction. More notably, MUBARAK fell only 5.40%, but its trading volume soared to 388 million, surpassing all the rising stocks. On the surface, bulls seemed to have the upper hand, but the real large shares were concentrated on the selling side. [Futures Gainers] METUSDT: 0.3702 | +25.87% | Volume 16.0087 million ALLOUSDT: 0.31618 | +21.56% | Volume 26.81 million PENGUUSDT: 0.010851 | +18.99% | Volume 94.95 million SENTUSDT: 0.02296 | +17.92% | Volume 5.08 million TIAUSDT: 0.5272 | +17.28% | Turnover 22.15 million ZROUSDT: 1.4479 | +13.92% | Turnover 27.11 million ZAMAUSDT: 0.09981 | +13.40% | Turnover 40.64 million IONQUSDT: 45.76 million | +13.26% | Turnover 750,800 [Contract Decline Leader] AKEUSDT: 0.04195 | -18.85% | Turnover 110 million ONEUSD#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
BCH Quick Commentary: Currently $BCH is around 360, a short squeeze is reaching its climax, the higher it goes, the tighter you need to buckle your seatbelt.
According to the market, BCH has pulled up to the 360 level, up over 32% in 24h, far outperforming BTC (which is less than 2% in the same period), representing a catch-up short squeeze after a bullish ignition.
But three high tide signals have already lit up: ① RSI reports 80.3, entering an extreme overbought zone; ② 24h trading volume is about 1.4 billion USD, nearly 7 times the 30-day average, indicating emotional release; ③ Starting from 262, it has surged nearly 100 USD in less than two days, with profit-taking layers stacked.
The narrative remains unchanged: CME futures launching on 10/19 (pending review) + Grayscale ETF expectations. But after a sharp rise, beware of a sharp pullback, resistance at 360, 380, support at 330, 300. For those holding positions, move stop losses up and take profits in batches, don’t let floating gains turn into floating losses; for those without positions, don’t chase at this level, wait for a pullback to 300–330 before considering. BCH historically pulses fast and recedes even faster.
The above is a personal market note and does not constitute investment advice, please set stop losses properly. $ETH $ZEC #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow of $715 million in one day, while OKX perpetual fee rate is only 0.0009%
Last night in Eastern US time, Bitcoin spot ETF net bought $715 million, OKX order book BTC spot quoted at 86,558.5 USDT, perpetual fee rate 0.0009%, longs first watch 86,558 for support.
Data on SoSoValue shows Wall Street funds have been net buying for 4 consecutive days. I checked the OKX market page this afternoon; BTC spot 24-hour trading volume is $1.75 billion, up 1.43%. BTC accounts for $3.18 billion in OKX perpetual positions, funding rate remains at 0.0009%, bulls are not rushing to leverage up.
The same batch of Ethereum spot ETFs also had a net inflow of $162 million yesterday, recording positive inflows for 3 consecutive days. The fear and greed index is currently at 71 in the greed zone, but the on-exchange leverage fee rate is so low, indicating institutions are mainly doing spot custody, while retail contract longs are relatively restrained. I continue to hold my spot positions and am not rushing to chase longs on contracts; first, I will watch if the ETF subscription and redemption data after tonight's US stock market open can maintain this inflow pace.
For friends holding BTC spot or perpetual positions, facing ETF net inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars for 4 consecutive days, are you continuing to hold spot or opening hedges in contracts now?BNB 789.65, slightly up 0.6%, I will only buy if it pulls back to 780
At posting time BNB: 789.65 (24H +0.60%)
Conclusion:
780–777 not broken, lightly buy long. Stop loss at 747, target 807.49 → 820.
Only look above 807.49 for 820+, otherwise it's just high-level oscillation distribution.
If 747 breaks, do not buy, wait for 718–720.
Market situation:
• Pulled from 718.20 to 807.49, significant increase, currently consolidating at a high level with a pullback
• 807.49 is the 4H previous high, failure to reclaim = spike then fall with oscillation
• 7-day increase over 11%, short-term gains moderate but profit-taking is increasing, chasing longs = giving away money
• 4H high-level consolidation with slight pullback, previous high resistance, only buy on pullback, do not chase highs
My actions:
• Spot: place limit buy orders at 780–777, position size controlled within 10% of total funds
• Futures: lightly buy long 2x at 780, exit if breaks 747; reduce half if 807.49 not passed, clear at 820
• Chase 2x on volume breakout above 807.49, exit if falls back below 780
• Orders not taken: chasing long at 789.65, bottom fishing on break at 747, heavy all-in
If 747 breaks, accept loss, no adding positions. Stop loss must be quick on high-level assets.
Follow me, key levels given in advance, no hindsight. What do you think BNB will do next? Comment below.
$BNB BTC peaked above 87,000 today, and is currently fluctuating between 83,000–87,000. Looking back at yesterday's view, we preemptively defined 86,000–89,000 as a key observation area, and the market has now entered this range. So there's no need to guess "is BTC the peak" anymore? My strategy is four words: sell the higher it rises. In the short term, Bitcoin does have pullback demand, but there's no need to predict when or where to return—just follow your plan. Exit in batches between 87,000 and 90,000. If BTC continues to rise upward, keep reducing positions; If it pulls back near 83,000, observe whether resistance can turn into support. Support is effective, and there are still swing opportunities for altcoins. Currently, I mainly hold ETH, SOL, CRCL, and quite a few altcoins, with about 80% left overall. I already cut 20% the day before yesterday. Why dare to hold a heavy position around 75,000? Because the odds were good enough at the time. Now that I'm just over 87,000 and still mindlessly adding positions, that's a different matter. The higher the market, the more you need to recalculate the risk-reward ratio. Two rounds of bottom-fishing, and the current returns are here: First round: ETH 1556→2745, +74% SOL 65→112, +82% UNI 2.98→10.3, +345% [❤️ as shown in Figure 1] Second round: ETH 2400→2745, +15% SOL 98→118, +21% [❤️ as shown in Figure 2] So now is not completely bearishCAPITAL ISN’T LEAVING CRYPTO. IT’S EXPANDING.
On Sept. 21, ETF flows reversed sharply:
$BTC: +$937M–$999M
$ETH: +$270M
$SOL: +$26M
BTC posted its strongest daily inflow in nearly a year, while ETH recorded its largest daily inflow since October 2025.
This is no longer just a BTC price story.
$BTC → Liquidity
$ETH → Confirmation
$SOL → Beta
I’m still waiting for flow + volume + OI to confirm the move.
Will the next capital rotation favor $ETH or $SOL? 🌅 At dawn, BTC surged to 87K, and three small coins started moving independently.
🟠 $DOGE reclaimed 0.10; although the increase isn't dramatic, the sentiment significance at this level is strong. Meme coins fear lack of sentiment the most; if BTC continues strong and market risk appetite spreads, DOGE often becomes a favored direction for funds seeking resilience. However, morning volume hasn't fully picked up yet, so whether 0.10 can hold is more important.
🟣 $HYPE is near 95, maintaining strength. Compared to pure sentiment-driven Meme coins, HYPE is supported by trading platforms and buyback logic, making its market pricing logic relatively more complex. In the short term, watch if support can form around 95.
🟡 $SLX leans more towards AI and semiconductor industry chain logic, with a trend not fully synchronized with the crypto market. When the chip sector is strong, related equipment leasing assets also tend to attract capital attention; 0.068 is worth monitoring.
🧠 These three coins actually represent three capital directions: DOGE reflects sentiment, HYPE reflects ecosystem, and SLX reflects industry narrative.
👉 BTC is responsible for igniting market sentiment; what’s truly worth watching is whether funds can continue to spread into these different sectors. No rush to chase without volume in the morning; first see if key levels can hold.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ If every rally is seen as "shorts building positions," it might just be the market finding excuses to justify a bearish outlook.
#BTC keeps seeing heavy volume below resistance—not necessarily shorts piling up, but possibly buyers gradually eating through sell orders.
Once resistance is broken, those positions previously labeled as "short covering" could instead turn into fuel for a short squeeze.
You can stay bearish, but don’t interpret every uptick as a trap.#CostcoQ4EarningsWatch In this bull market, Xiao Ma only goes long
The overall direction is very straightforward: go long, never entertained short positions.
Entry logic: wait for Bitcoin to pull back and stabilize, then pick strong assets to enter. Take profit at key resistance levels of the coin or directly based on Bitcoin's performance; stop loss is anchored to support levels or adjusted according to Bitcoin's trend.
Some thoughts:
1. BCH and UNI have both been ignited by positive news from traditional brokers. BCH has risen quite a bit but remains strong, no longer the old pattern of rising then slowly declining. UNI has also been lifted and is showing initial strength.
2. President Xi's official visit to the US has begun. Will there be a big plunge tonight? It's worth guarding against, but Xiao Ma will not engage in short selling, only waiting for stabilization to trade the rebound.
3. In a bull market, it seems that as long as you go long and hold on long enough, you can break even. But don't open positions at meaningless points, don't trade without logic, and reduce frequent trading.
Going long is not brainless; it means waiting for structure, stabilization, and confirmation. This round, Xiao Ma only profits from money he understands. The 3-hour US-Iran talks signal easing! The market is really focused on the Strait of Hormuz🛢️
$BTC $ETH $XAU
On September 22, US and Iranian representatives held a 3-hour meeting in New York. The US side called the talks productive, and both parties plan to continue contact, but no formal ceasefire agreement was reached, with core disagreements still existing.
Iran issued a conditional statement: if the US reduces military pressure and lifts the port blockade, it is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Compared to diplomatic verbal statements, the resumption of navigation through the strait is the key for the global market, directly affecting crude oil supply, transportation costs, and inflation expectations.
If negotiations succeed and the shipping route returns to normal, oil price risk premiums will decline, US Treasury yield pressure will ease, and BTC, ETH, gold, and tech stocks are expected to benefit from improved risk appetite.
If it remains only verbal communication, oil prices and risk aversion sentiment will continue to fluctuate. Key points to watch going forward: whether both sides implement specific execution plans, changes in strait navigation volume, and whether military actions cool down.
What changes the market is the implementation of agreements, not just a talk.
Do you think the Middle East situation will continue to ease or fluctuate again? Share your thoughts in the comments👇
#USIranTalks #StraitOfHormuz #MacroMarket
⚠️Macro logic analysis only, not investment advice#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Today, the underlying infrastructure of crypto actually relies on #crossmint, #relay, and #privy.
The shovel sellers have become the industry's hidden lifeline——
The real moat isn't in the front-end experience, but in this foundational layer that no one talks about.$ZEC has surged like this, and Europe has just opened the door for it
21Shares directly made ZEC the first physically-backed ETP in Europe, launching on September 21 in Paris and Amsterdam. It sounds impressive, but the newly listed AUM is only about $100,000 with 5,000 securities, so it's not yet a case of European institutional funds rushing to buy ZEC.
Although the initial listing is small, the price has already surged ahead. On September 22, ZEC rose about 10.8% in a single day, once hitting $1650, and today it remains near $1600. The increase over the past week has also been very dramatic. Trading volume has expanded simultaneously, clearly showing the market does not treat this as an ordinary product launch.
Most importantly, ZEC now has another channel for traditional capital to enter. The US ZCSH ETF has already taken the lead, and Europe is now following, further pushing the privacy narrative.
Currently, the product scale is too small, and the price increase is clearly ahead of the real ETP funds. If the shares continue to grow and the AUM truly develops, this story can shift from "expectation" to "real money".Can $BTC be shorted? Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $86,000—$87,000, with an intraday high of about $87,250 and a low of about $85,460. Compared to the low of around $76,000 on September 17, the recent rebound has exceeded 13%.
My market judgment: short-term remains strong but has entered a resistance zone.
* First resistance: around $87,300
This corresponds to the high point of this rebound. After another surge today, there was some pullback, indicating profit-taking above.
* Strong resistance: $90,000
Only if there is a volume breakout and a stable hold above will it be easier to open new upward space.
* First support: $85,000
* Important support: $81,000—82,000
On September 21, BTC quickly rose from around $81,000 to above $87,000. This area is a position that short-term bulls need to defend.
Market/Capital Worth Noting
Currently, BTC futures 24-hour trading volume is about $71.3 billion, with open interest around $61.56 billion, indicating a clear increase in leverage activity. The recent rally was accompanied by about $650 million in short liquidations, so continuing to chase highs now requires caution against a rapid pullback after crowded longs.
Additionally, on September 25, there is a large-scale BTC options expiration, with the market estimating a notional size of about $14.39 billion, so volatility may significantly increase in the next 1–2 days. $ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #BTC87KCryptoCap3T Bitcoin remained above $87,000 this week as the total crypto market recovered above $3 trillion. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $999 million on September 21, their strongest single-day inflow since October 2025. IBIT, ARKB and FBTC accounted for most of the buying, while total ETF net assets moved back above $100 billion.
The rally also triggered significant short liquidations, and BTC and ETH options expire on September 25. Calls near $90,000 and $100,000 could amplify volatility as traders hedge positions. My view is that the market now has genuine spot support, but the next test is whether inflows continue after options expiry rather than relying on short covering alone.