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River's proprietary model directly estimates Bitcoin's peak price at $840,000.
They calculate based on global asset allocation over the next 3–5 years.
Assuming 20%–40% of investment portfolios start holding Bitcoin, with an average allocation of 2%–4% in BTC, this could bring in $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion in new capital.
River then applies a 3x market cap multiplier to this portion of capital.
Continuing with this model, Bitcoin's final market cap would correspond to $5.5 trillion to $17.5 trillion, with a single coin price roughly between $250,000 and $840,000.
The global financial asset scale is large enough that as long as a portion of traditional funds gradually increase Bitcoin allocation from zero to 2%, 3%, or 4%, the amount of capital involved would already be enormous.A big waterfall drop early in the morning, this is a killer for the brothers who stayed up late holding positions! $BTC crashed from around 85500 down to 83500, plunging continuously within just a few minutes.
The short position opened near 86290.5 is still active, with unrealized profit reaching 275.91%, nearly 3 times. The initial short was mainly based on the resistance near 86500, expecting insufficient upward momentum and aiming to catch a pullback after a rally.
Honestly, although the direction was right, I didn't expect such a massive waterfall drop. The hourly chart shows consecutive bearish candles, volume increased breaking below multiple moving averages, and MACD bearish momentum clearly strengthened; the short-term trend has weakened.
Next, watch if 83500 can hold; a break below might test 83000 further. The resistance zone to watch on the upside is between 83990 and 84500 for any rebound. However, after such a sharp drop, a technical rebound could happen anytime. Since the short position already has profits, protecting gains is more important than blindly chasing shorts. $ETH $ZEC #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Before the release of the Fed meeting minutes tonight, funds are voting with their feet, retreating across the board. Bitcoin $BTC has fallen below a key level, Ethereum $ETH has dropped more than three points, and now is definitely not the time to catch a falling knife.
Why the drop? Because macro data is conflicting. The services PMI is barely holding in expansion territory, but the price index inside it has surged, indicating a resurgence of inflation in the service sector. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Cooling employment combined with price pressures is the most unpleasant stagflation scenario. The market fears the Fed will be forced to continue hawkish policies, so money is fleeing first.
Trading background and risk warnings must be clearly stated. Before such key data releases, liquidity is extremely poor, and the market is very fragile; even a slight disturbance can trigger a chain reaction of panic selling. I previously heavily bet on direction at similar data points and got brutally stopped out by whipsaws. The lesson learned from reviewing those trades is to never be stubborn.
Now hold the spot base positions firmly and unload all short-term leverage. Don’t try to guess the bottom before breaking key support. It’s better to miss this wave of volatility than to risk principal for the data. Preserve your ammunition and wait for the minutes to drop before making moves. #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $ZEC perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1377.2, now at 1315.72, floating profit +223.20%.
After hitting resistance near 1370, it directly plunged like a waterfall. I followed the short trend, setting stop loss above 1400. The 50x leverage position is very small, the movement was much weaker than expected, directly free-falling, the percentage gain more than doubled! $ETH $SOL
Moved stop loss up to 1350, now watching if the 1300 round number can be broken. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 [Breaking] ETH plunges nearly 4% within an hour, with about $370 million liquidated across the network in 1 hour
Starting from 09:50 Beijing time, the price quickly dropped: ETH fell from around $2690 to a low of $2591.71 (Binance, 10:05), a decline of about 3.7%; BTC dropped from around $85,340 to $83,577 (Binance, 10:05), down about 2%; SOL also fell to around 117. As of 10:21 Beijing time, ETH is about $2618, BTC about $84,040, showing a slight rebound.
According to TokenPost's summary, about $370 million was liquidated across the network within 1 hour as of 10:04 Beijing time, including about $136 million in ETH and about $102 million in BTC. OKX's public forced liquidation data also shows that almost all of the positions liquidated in this wave were long positions.
Currently, no clear single news trigger is seen; it looks more like a concentrated liquidation of high-leverage long positions. My view: technical rebounds often follow sharp drops, but don't rush to bottom-fish and add leverage; first see if ETH can hold above 2650.
This does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market just suddenly experienced a waterfall sell-off, with Bitcoin quickly dropping from around 86000 to 83600. Several attempts to break above 87000 in the past few days failed, and I have consistently emphasized short positions on rallies within this consolidation pattern, which has been repeatedly validated.
Currently, there is no clear sudden negative news; it seems more like after consecutive failures to break 87000, the bulls are starting to retreat, compounded by high leverage positions being liquidated, which quickly amplifies the short-term decline.
Trading advice:
Buy the dip around 83000-83500 for Bitcoin, and buy the dip around 2600 for Ethereum. At this moment, fully switch to a bullish stance #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Don't panic, Er Gou speaks the truth: this wave of $BTC $ETH $SOL dumping is "premeditated." Is it still possible to unwind shorts below 80,000?
Brothers, I am Er Gou. The screen is so green today it hurts my eyes; over the past 24 hours, long positions liquidated $87.26 million.
But don't rush to curse. This drop has a traceable cause: @frogmanhaha's wallet was hacked for $4 million, and nine types of assets were dumped and swapped into ETH, BNB, and SOL sales. Meanwhile, BTC was rejected three times at $87,000, triggering a chain reaction of selling pressure.
My judgment: this looks more like deleveraging and a panic sell-off, not a fundamental collapse. Bitmine is still adding 12,500 ETH overnight; institutions haven't fled.
Action advice: don't rush to bottom-fish; long liquidations haven't stopped yet. But you can gradually buy some spot, wait for the selling pressure to ease before making moves. Don't be greedy with shorts; this market reverses faster than flipping a page.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $BTC no panic, no panic, because I'm shorting😉. Luckily, before going long yesterday, I thought about it—after such a long sideways movement, there's no way retail investors would catch the bottom, so I directly went short instead.$SPCX perpetual 75x long position, opened at 159.02, now at 168.59, floating profit +451.35%.
The idea is very simple: the bottom consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that the chips are ready to explode. A single high-volume bullish candle directly pulls the price up from 159.02, a typical breakout signal, go long, not short. 75x leverage, stop loss at 155. The trend is continuously upward, giving no comfortable entry point.
At this position, I plan to first reduce half of the position to take profits, and move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 165 to let profits run. If 175 breaks out with volume, continue holding; if it fails to break, close all positions. $CT $DOGE #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $CELO 强化支付版图：重塑地区与跨区支付，未来金融基建不止有BTC 全球支付体系正处在一个尴尬的十字路口。一方面，跨境汇款和地区间结算的需求从未如此旺盛；另一方面，传统银行体系依然被营业时间、国界限制、代理行层层盘剥所困。一笔跨国转账走三五天是常态，手续费动辄几十美元。这个痛点，给了区块链支付网络巨大的机会。而在这个赛道上，Celo正在用一种与比特币截然不同的方式，强化自己的发展路径。 地区支付是Celo最扎实的基本盘。它的策略不是做一个通用的、漂浮在空中的全球结算层，而是深入到每一个具体的经济区域，解决当地人真实的支付难题。在拉丁美洲，Ripio的wFIAT稳定币栈已经覆盖阿根廷比索、巴西雷亚尔、墨西哥比索、哥伦比亚比索、智利比索和秘鲁索尔。用户可以直接用本地货币在链上交易，不需要先换成美元，再换成其他货币。在巴西，Pods Finance正式推出了Pix到Celo的入金通道，把巴西这个拥有全球最大即时支付用户群体之一的市场，直接连接到了Celo网络上。这意味着数百万巴西用户可以像使用本地支付系统一样，简单便捷地进入链上金融世界。在非洲，cNGN带来了尼日利亚奈拉，IDRX把印尼10.7 BTC Layout Strategy
From the chart: A quick spike down to 2587.76 followed by a rapid recovery, forming a long lower shadow indicating a panic sell-off after a sharp drop, presenting a short-term oversold rebound opportunity.
- Entry range: Around 2610–2615 for a pullback buy, do not chase highs; a second pullback near 2590 is a more conservative low entry opportunity
- Stop loss: Below 2587, which means breaking this low point at 2587.76; if broken, abandon the long position idea, indicating the bottom test failed
- Take profit
First target: Around 2640 (short-term rebound resistance)
Second target: Around 2670 (previous platform resistance level)
Strategy interpretation
1. A long lower shadow candlestick indicates support below, with short-term exhaustion of bearish selling pressure, representing an oversold recovery after a sharp drop;
2. The lower indicators are simultaneously dropping quickly with a bullish divergence repair expectation, suitable for trading the rebound, not a trend reversal long, but a short-term rebound long;
3. Risk control focus: This spike-down volatility is extreme, avoid heavy positions, and if a new low is broken again, strictly stop loss and do not hold losing positions. $ETH $BTC 1-hour liquidation, long positions liquidated over 100 million. How many people have been fooled by these waves of scams? Each rally fails to surpass the previous high, indeed it still needs to push down. The overall major trend is still upward.
Just finished liquidating longs, short-term momentum is insufficient, a "dead cat bounce" or localized short squeeze rebound could occur at any time.
On-chain market makers have already started transferring chips to exchanges, the major trend is bearish. But the large holders' long-short ratio of 1.59 is still holding firm; it’s possible the main force will first pump to trigger a short squeeze before dumping.
Going short now is very likely to get stopped out.
Key resistance level: $85,000 Key support level: $83,000
Long-short ratio: Retail and large holders are still long.
Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.2002, OKX retail long-short ratio is 1.22.
For large holders: number long-short ratio is 1.2883, position long-short ratio is as high as 1.596.
$ETH $ZEC #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 刚刚BTC已经跌破84000美元，24小时跌幅扩大到近2%。早上那会儿还在85000附近撑着，这会儿直接往下走了一个台阶。
87000美元这道坎，今天算是彻底验证了它的厚度。美股标普500隔夜又创了新高，科技股涨得热火朝天，比特币愣是一步没跟，冲到86000上方就被按了回来。CoinGlass的数据显示，87000附近堆着最密集的卖单流动性，越往上卖压越厚。说白了，市场不缺想买的人，缺的是愿意在87K上方接货的人。
不过链上有个信号我觉得值得留意。Binance过去一周BTC净流出超过23000枚，是2023年6月以来最大规模的单周流出，交易所储备一周少了约4万BTC。同时现货累计交易量差值从负的1亿美元翻正到了3300万，买方力量确实在悄悄增强。一边是价格砸，一边是币在往外提，这种背离对我来说比单纯看K线更有说服力。
美联储会议纪要是个变数。如果纪要偏鸽，83500附近的支撑应该能接住；要是鹰派意外，那就得看81000能不能扛住了。我自己的仓位没动，在这个位置割肉感觉不划算，但加仓也还不到时候，先看纪要落地再说。$BTC $ETH $XAUT #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 On days without contracts, my mind is as calm as still water; instead, the more it falls, the more excited I get. I no longer have the emotional ups and downs I used to have—making money feels good for a moment, but losing money makes me add more positions.
As long as you don't stop, every contract gambler's fate is to end up at zero.
I've been severely hit three times, and this is the second day of logging in.$MUBARAK perpetual 20x long position, opened at 0.063765, now at 0.076683, floating profit +405.17%.
The logic is simple: repeatedly tested near 0.063765 without breaking, each pullback was quickly pulled back, the lower shadow line is getting longer, strong buying support. Wait for a volume breakout above 0.07, confirm on the right side, then go long. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.062. The rise is very smooth, no chance for a pullback.
Now move the stop loss to 0.07 to lock in profits. If there is a volume breakout above 0.08, you can hold on for more. $ZEC $SOL #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC after several days of consolidation, Bitcoin's breakout to a local new high ultimately failed! Now the price has pulled back, triggering a large number of long position take-profits and liquidations, and the price is likely to have further downside room.
Why do I make this judgment?
Because since September 29, although Bitcoin has surged many times but failed to break the previous high and then pulled back, during the pullback process, it is clearly visible that a large amount of supporting funds have been holding the price, with price fluctuating and oscillating downward.
The recent drop shows signs of a direct dump, indicating that some funds are taking profits and fleeing or reallocating Bitcoin assets, and the supports formed in the past few days have almost all been broken. The bears are quite strong, so it depends on whether the early support range of 82800-83100 can hold.
If it doesn't hold, there is a high probability of further downside space opening up, and in the short term, I expect to see around 81400.
After such a rapid decline, a large number of longs have been liquidated. Beware of a quick rebound to cover shorts. I suggest not rushing to bottom-fish; wait until it stabilizes before making moves.
The above is just my personal opinion! 85,355 was the low point this morning and also the bottom line for short-term bulls. According to Chan theory, the downward move from 85,829 to 85,355 was very strong. Although the MACD green bars show signs of shortening, STICK turned positive at 12.1, and both DIFF and DEA are below the zero axis, indicating a need for short-term correction, but the overall trend is still dominated by bears. If you try to buy the dip now, are you catching a rebound or a reversal? If you can't tell, don't make a move. For those itching to act, the early session is the easiest time to get hit from both sides.# Latest Updates
- Houthi forces launched dozens of attacks on Saudi-supported armed assembly points, causing over 200 casualties on the opposing side, an unprecedented scale; Iran has carried out nine tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz this month, but Middle East oil flow has recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude holding above $101.
- Crypto exchange OKX completed a new round of financing, valued at $25 billion, with participation from Circle, Ripple, SC Ventures under Standard Chartered, and hedge fund Qube, continuing from the approximately $200 million investment by Intercontinental Exchange in March; BTC fluctuated around $85,000, CME futures premium at 0.30%, with BTC and ETH ETFs seeing net outflows of $90 million and $51 million respectively.
- According to Bloomberg, DeepSeek's current financing round is close to securing at least 80 billion RMB (about $12 billion), far exceeding the initial target of about 50 billion RMB, with CATL and Tencent continuing to lead the investment; the final scale may approach 100 billion RMB, and the financing process is nearing completion.
- Google and the largest U.S. nuclear power operator Constellation reached a long-term power purchase agreement for 3,590 MW, including a 20-year nuclear power contract; Constellation will invest over $4.3 billion to upgrade 11 nuclear reactors, with the first unit expected to connect to the grid in 2028.
- SpaceX plans to raise about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade bonds to purchase Nvidia chips, with Apollo expected to lead the investment; the deal is expected to close in 2027; the FAA released a proposal for new commercial space regulations on October 5, simplifying launch and re-entry licensing processes.
# Trading Analysis
- Conclusion remains unchanged: the market is cautious below new highs, closely watching CPI and Anthropic's prospectus.
- The market is beginning to digest the new global rate hike cycle. Daly said further rate hikes depend on whether inflation shocks from tariffs, oil prices, AI, etc., subside; Kazuo Ueda keeps the Bank of Japan's year-end rate hike window open, expecting a 25 basis point hike in December. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 5.28%, continuing to suppress risk assets. Middle East oil flow has recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels, with Saudi east-west pipeline oil transport at 5.8 million barrels/day, marginally easing supply shocks; Brent crude remains near $101. Attention is on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes early Thursday and progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
- The core contradiction in AI has shifted from hardware shortages to ROI validation: whether large model revenues can support high Capex in 2028, and whether frontier models can prevent distillation from widening the gap with open source. OpenAI's ARR increase and Anthropic's prospectus will provide more validation; a period of divergence and expected volatility remains.In the crypto circle, past experience shows that prices always drop during conferences. This time is no different; the Singapore conference is still ongoing today, and Bitcoin has dropped first as a form of respect. I really can't understand why every time there's a crypto conference, the coin prices are very likely to fall?
Could it really be, as some say, that the bloggers attending need to sell coins to buy plane tickets and pay for hotels? But the bloggers who can go there should have money and probably don't care about that. However, it might also be that everyone expects prices to drop during conferences, so they rush to sell. Regardless, whether prices go down or up, we shouldn't force explanations for market fluctuations.
The essence of a drop is that prices have risen too much, and the essence of a rise is that prices have fallen too much; this is the fundamental reason. As for macro factors, technical factors, and sentiment, they are just reasons the market uses to explain price movements. I actually hope for a continued drop because my position is too small, but even though people say it’s falling, Bitcoin hasn’t dropped much and is still at 84,000. It’s basically just a fluctuation. At 84,000, I won’t buy; it’s a bit high, so I’ll keep waiting for the right opportunity. Sudden plunge! The complete truth behind $BTC's rapid crash (review for reference only, not trading advice, contract risk is extremely high)
⚠️ The market changes in an instant, follow the trend to win, avoid heavy positions and stubborn holding!
Many are still confused, how did a stable market suddenly crash so hard?
This drop is not caused by a single negative factor but a chain reaction triggered by multiple hidden risks!
✅ Trigger: Key support broken in one strike
85000 is the lifeline everyone watches. Once broken, a large number of long positions with stop losses here are triggered collectively.
Forced liquidations aggressively sell off, the more it falls, the more stop losses trigger, causing a stampede-like crash, rapidly amplifying the decline.
✅ Behind the scenes: Leverage in the market is already severely crowded
During these days of consolidation, retail investors have been aggressively buying dips with increasing leverage.
When the market weakens slightly, fragile leveraged positions cannot withstand the volatility. The main players seize the highly concentrated chips, smash the market to shake out weak hands, and harvest a large number of short-term long positions.
✅ Capital undercurrent: Long momentum has long been exhausted
Repeated attempts to break above 85800 pressure repeatedly fail, unable to push to new highs.
Outside incremental funds hesitate to enter, spot capital inflow stalls, leaving only contract funds to battle back and forth. Buying power is weak; once selling pressure emerges, the market has no support.
✅ Chip pressure: Heavy trapped positions above
Previous rallies and pullbacks have accumulated massive trapped positions in the 86000-86600 range.
Each rebound releases a large amount of selling pressure from those trying to break even. Every step up for longs faces heavy resistance, multiple failed attacks, gradually eroding market confidence in going long.
✅ Sentiment turning point: Patience exhausted, funds pocketed and fled
Long horizontal consolidation with no positive breakout in sight, many short-term institutional longs choose to take profits and exit.
People shift from "buying the dip" to "running on the rebound," the market sentiment quietly and completely reverses.
Key point: This sharp drop was not caused by any sudden black swan event!
It was the resonance of chips, leverage, technicals, and market sentiment—several negative factors coinciding—that caused this rapid correction.
Current practical approach
Short-term bearish pressure is still releasing; do not rush to bottom fish or guess the bottom.
Prioritize shorting on rebounds that meet resistance; patiently wait for the 83500 support battle outcome, observe for clear signs of a stop in the decline before considering long positions on the rebound.
Bottom fishing in a downtrend is the hardest move; better to miss the first wave at the bottom than blindly catch a falling knife halfway up! #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 This $NEAR trade directly pushed today's "chain short" to an emotional extreme. Short opened at 5.154 with 50x leverage, current price 4.977, floating profit 170%. The large bearish candle on the right side of the chart smashed through the 5.0 psychological level down to 4.86, with volume bars expanding simultaneously, clearly a strong short squeeze.
Looking at the structure, after peaking at 5.374, the highs have been steadily decreasing, all rebounds are low-volume small bullish candles, and after breaking below the 5.1 consolidation zone, the bulls' defense line is completely vacated. Interestingly, the page is flashing negative news about the "NEAR Intents vulnerability exploit," combined with a retreating market sentiment, funds are using the news to push the price down, and the chip structure has completely deteriorated. A 2.23% drop in 24 hours, with 163 million in turnover, all buying is passive order-taking, with no active buying intention.
But at this point, market logic has taken a backseat, and trading psychology has become the core variable. From SNDK, MINA, SUI, FIL, ZEC to NEAR, all have had consecutive large profits from shorting, and the market's bearish consensus is extremely crowded. The long lower shadow at 4.86 on NEAR indicates that there is capital picking up cheap chips in the 4.8-5.0 range for repair. Under 50x leverage, the low-volume rebound after a sharp drop (currently 4.977) is most likely to wipe out a large portion of the high leverage profits.
Current handling: absolutely no adding to short positions, directly take profits in batches to lock in gains, leaving a very light base position to see if 4.86 can be broken. If the rebound to 5.1-5.2 is low volume, it is a second short entry point; if the price recovers above 5.2 with volume, bulls forcibly repair, and short positions should exit immediately.2599.26, $ETH this number is a bit glaring.
A few days ago it was still hovering above 2700, today it directly dropped below 2600, down 3.81% intraday.
Don't underestimate this four percent. When it climbs up, a 4% gain in a day is no big deal, but when it drops 4%, people get unsettled.
To be clear, the 2600 level itself doesn't mean much; what matters is how decisively it broke—without much struggle.
The question now isn't whether it will rebound, but whether anyone will buy on the rebound.
If pulling back to 2650 is difficult, that means the buying power is really weak.
I'm bearish, at least I’m not rushing to catch the bottom these two days.
Coins that don’t fall further are worth watching; with the current trend, it’s still too early.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $ETH U Sister 10.7 Wednesday $SOL Strategy
Entry conditions: On a rebound approaching the 121.5‑124.99 range, if the candlestick shows a long upper shadow and the upward volume shrinks, confirm the stagnation before entering a short position.
Stop loss position: Effectively hold above 125.5; if it breaks the previous high, abandon the short idea.
First target: 115.0, second target: 112.40
After $SOL surged to 124.99, it topped out after a round of upward movement, followed by repeated oscillations. The second rebound has consistently failed to refresh new highs, and the bulls' momentum is gradually fading.
After a period of range-bound oscillation, a large bearish candlestick broke downward, signaling a shift to a weak trend.
It is not recommended to chase shorts at the current price directly; wait for a rebound to repair the market. Enter short positions only when stagnation signals appear near the resistance range.Rapid decline, capital outflow!
As of 10:00, total liquidations across the network in 1 hour reached $410 million
Long liquidations hit $400 million while shorts only $11.462 million
This morning's drop is a concentrated liquidation of long positions
$BTC had $120 million liquidated in 1 hour, almost all longs
$ETH had $160 million liquidated in 1 hour, also mainly longs
ETH's liquidation scale exceeding BTC indicates heavier leverage buildup
Price break triggered massive forced liquidation of high-position longs
Closing pressure continues to push the market down, causing a chain reaction of stampede
Meanwhile, ETF capital flow shows divergence
$SOL spot ETF saw a net outflow of $3.6849 million in a single day
Institutional funds are withdrawing from SOL
While $HYPE spot ETF welcomed a net inflow of $2.9833 million
Capital rotation is occurring among sectors, not a full retreat
This drop has no sudden major negative news
The core is concentrated clearing of high-position long leverage
Funds are withdrawing from some coins and shifting to others
Market divergence is obvious; different coins' trends will continue to diverge
And this week the FOMC meeting minutes will be released
So volatility will arrive early
Get ready to act!
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $TRUMP perpetual 50x short position, opened at 2.042, currently 1.89, floating profit +372.18%.
Just betting on a top reversal: 2.042 tested three times without breaking, volume decreasing stepwise, very typical top characteristics. Enter the position the moment the bearish candle crashes down, never guess the top prematurely. 50x leverage, stop loss at 2.05. This wave moved very cleanly, almost no rebound.
For now, hold steady and let the bullet fly a bit. Set 1.95 as the defense line to protect the principal, wait for a clear signal around 1.8 before deciding to add or reduce, no rush. $ZEC $SOL #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $UNI perpetual 50x short position, opened at 9.158, currently 8.231, floating profit +506.11%.
The logic is simple: multiple attempts to rally near 9.15 were resisted, with obvious upper shadows, volume expanded but price stagnated, indicating effective top resistance. After seeing the stagnation signal, went short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 9.30. The trend oscillated downward, with some rebounds but overall bearish, breaking below the 8.5 level, floating profit over 5 times.
$BTC $ETH
Moved stop loss to 8.60 to lock in profits. If the 8.00 whole number level breaks with volume below, can hold a bit longer to watch the 7.80 area. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
Now there is a relatively positive signal in BTC's on-chain data: the selling pressure from whales has clearly decreased, and they are no longer dumping large amounts of coins onto exchanges to cash out.
On the other hand, spot ETFs have seen continuous inflows for three consecutive weeks, with institutions genuinely putting money into the market. While whales are not selling, institutions keep buying, making the spot support much stronger than before.
But don't take this directly as a signal for an imminent big rally. Whales not dumping only means short-term downward pressure has lessened; it doesn't mean they will actively push the price up. Continuous inflows into ETFs provide solid backing, but macroeconomic pressures remain, with US Treasury yields staying high and external factors ready to disrupt the market at any time.
Currently, selling pressure is weakening, but the offensive momentum hasn't fully emerged yet. The market is still in a consolidation pattern, not a one-sided bull market. $ETH $ZEC
Don't get overheated and go all-in just because of two positive data points. These positives are just groundwork; whether a breakout happens depends on whether volume can surge upward. Good data doesn't mean the price will immediately take off; risk must always come first.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% Celo社区正在寻找更稳定的质押机制，这件事比表面看起来更重要。 很多人只盯着CELO的价格波动，却忽略了网络底层正在发生的一场静默重构。质押，是Celo网络安全和治理的根基。当社区开始讨论“如何让质押更稳定”，它实际上在解决一个决定长期价值的问题：如何让锁在系统里的CELO，既能保障网络安全，又不会因为激励错配而不断流失。 先看最核心的变化。2026年1月，Celo社区通过治理提案，决定停止向验证者支付区块奖励，但保留质押者的收益。这意味着，验证者不再因为“运行节点”而获得报酬，他们的激励变成了——只有当他们被质押者投票选中，并且保持节点正常运行，才能间接分享生态的长期价值。这个变化释放了一个明确的信号：Celo不再为“存在”付费，只为“有效参与”付费。 但这带来了一个现实问题。验证者如果没有任何直接收入，他们为什么要继续维护基础设施？社区给出的答案是，把验证者的角色从“被雇佣的节点运营者”转变为“生态的长期利益相关者”。他们通过质押投票获得影响力，通过社区基金获得资助，通过生态成长获得代币升值。这是一种更长期、更对齐的激励结构，但前提是，质押本身必须足够稳定，才能留住这些参与者。 $ARB perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.20066, currently 0.18706, floating profit +338.88%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that the chips are ready to loosen. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 0.20066, a typical breakdown signal, short rather than long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 0.205. The trend is continuously downward, giving no comfortable exit points.
At this position, I plan to take profit on half of the position first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half to 0.195 to let profits run. If 0.18 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, close all positions. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Focus on the current ETH pullback in this round, dividing the support zones from near to far in the short term (ranges, not precise points):
1. First support (short-term weak support): around 2660
The lower edge of the previous consolidation box, serving as the first line of defense for short-term bulls. If there's a rapid sell-off, this level can easily be pierced by leveraged positions; if it holds, the price returns to box consolidation.
2. Second support (core chip area, the one you previously focused on): 2630~2633
The key Fibonacci retracement level of this rally; previously, the price rebounded here, making it a relatively strong buying support zone.
✅ Valid support confirmation: price drops to this range, spot inflows occur, liquidations release all at once, and candlesticks show a long lower shadow indicating a bottom test.
❌ Invalid break: daily/4-hour candles close consecutively below 2630 with increased volume, turning this support directly into resistance.
3. Third support (mid-term strong support): 2580~2550
A larger-scale chip concentration area; if 2633 fails, the next stop is this range; it marks the watershed of the current bullish trend. Once broken, the market will enter a deeper correction.
4. Long-term important support: around 2500
Psychological level plus previous platform; reaching here indicates a clear weakening of the current uptrend.
Distinction: Support ≠ guaranteed to hold
Support is merely a historically dense transaction area and a zone with concentrated algorithmic orders. It will fail directly under the following conditions:
• Rapid rise in US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar
• BTC simultaneously plunges, causing systemic selling pressure in the market
• Large continuous spot outflows and institutional sell-offs
• Chain liquidations of leveraged positions causing liquidity to dry up and sudden sharp breakdowns$ZEC This trade is a classic "big news landing turning into a sell-off day" scenario. The page was flashing the good news of Winklevoss submitting a spot ETF application, but the market reversed with a large-volume bearish candle, dropping directly from around 1368 to 1312, with a wick probing down to 1298. I shorted at 1368.89 with 50x leverage, currently floating a profit of 211%.
Looking at the candlestick structure, after reaching the high of 1384.76, there were frequent upper shadows, and the rebound volume weakened day by day. This established privacy coin usually has average liquidity; when stimulated by major news, if the buying volume cannot sustain and hold the high, it is a clear profit-taking distribution point. The volume bar of the bearish candle breaking the support clearly expanded, with a 3.17% drop in 24 hours and 1.066 billion in turnover, all active sell orders breaking through the bulls' defense. The long lower shadow at the low of 1298 indicates some funds are bargain hunting for a rebound, but the current rebound around 1312 is extremely weak, just a small-volume minor bearish candle, with bears still controlling the market.
However, doing this trade at today's closing session feels completely different. The previous several shorts (XRP, SNDK, MINA, SUI, FIL) all hit their targets, and the market bears are extremely crowded. As a highly volatile old coin, $ZEC with 50x leverage means the wick at 1298 could wipe out most of the floating profit. The current strategy is clear: do not cling to the trade during a sharp drop, take profits in batches to lock in gains, keep a very light position to see if 1298 breaks; if the rebound returns to the 1340-1360 range with low volume, it is a second short entry; if it closes above 1380 with volume, it means bulls are forcefully recovering, and no shorts will be held.$ETH perpetual 100x short position, opened at 2692.74, now at 2611.33, floating profit +302.33%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 2700 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was strong selling pressure. After confirming the top was valid, I decisively shorted on the bearish candle. Using 100x leverage, position size pushed to the extreme. $BTC $DOGE
Currently floating profit is +302.33%, trailing stop moved up to 2650. Not greedy, locking in profits first. #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $SNDK perpetual 75x short position, opened at 1718.5, now at 1642.6, floating profit +331.24%.
Didn't overthink it: the previous consolidation lasted long enough, the 1718.5 level was repeatedly confirmed as valid, the top pattern is very clear. Entered as soon as a high-volume bearish candle appeared, following the trend, not emotions. 75x leverage, stop loss at 1730. The drop was fast and steady, giving no chance for a second entry.
Locked in a safety buffer at 1680 first. My personal judgment is that there will be support around 1600; then I'll decide whether to exit or hold based on volume, without guessing the bottom prematurely. $DOGE $SOL #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 08:38, BTC 85,504. Since last night's high of 86,693, it has been steadily declining with no decent rebound in between. According to Chan theory, a 15-minute level downtrend center is forming; 85,829 is the lower edge of the upper center, and the current price is oscillating between 85,355 and 85,600. MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down, with moving averages in a bearish alignment. If you chased above 86,000 last night, how do you feel this morning? Don't rush; it might be even tougher if you're still stubbornly holding on and refusing to admit a mistake. $ORCA keeps getting stronger as it rises, so why is it more important to watch the support
$ORCA is up +22.33% in 24 hours, currently priced at 3.013. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 64 and 81 respectively. The strength is real, and the crowding is real too. The question is not whether it can continue to rise, but who is willing to catch it on the first pullback.
Put emotions aside first; the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 2.8464, currently strong; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 2.37, also currently strong. The short-term cycle exposes changes, while the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of crowding; when they conflict, beware of fluctuations. You can't just pick the side that benefits you.
The task for the stronger side is very clear: first, firmly hold above the 1-hour resistance at 3.335, then observe whether the 4-hour resistance near 3.335 can still maintain support. If it only briefly breaks through intraday and quickly returns to the range, the so-called breakout lacks the crucial second half.$FIL perpetual 50x long position, opened at 1.0623, now at 1.1026, floating profit +189.79%.
The logic is very simple: repeatedly testing near 1.0623 without breaking down, each pullback is quickly bought back, the lower shadows are getting longer, showing strong buying support. Wait for a volume breakout above 1.08, confirm on the right side, then go long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1.05. The rise is very smooth, no chance for a pullback.
Now move the stop loss to 1.08 to lock in profits. If there is a volume breakout above 1.12, you can hold on for more. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $SAND
The core catalyst for SAND's counter-trend strength is the removal of previous trading risk warnings by South Korea's leading exchanges Upbit and Bithumb. The cross-chain bridge vulnerability incident in August had caused the platforms to issue warnings, restricting fund inflows and outflows, which continuously suppressed the price. Now that the risk labels have been lifted and deposits and withdrawals have resumed, a large amount of Korean market funds have flowed back in, directly bringing ample buying pressure. Secondly, with the rotation of narratives between the metaverse and GameFi, funds have begun to return to the gaming sector. As a veteran leader in the metaverse, SAND has rich brand IP resources, numerous well-known brand collaborations, and a virtual land ecosystem with real use cases. The token has consumption attributes within the platform, making its fundamentals more solid compared to pure MEME tokens. On-chain data shows whales continuously accumulating, maintaining net buying for several months, with concentrated holdings and relatively controllable selling pressure. The buying support is stronger during market downturns. Additionally, the project has completed vulnerability compensation and promised no token inflation, alleviating market concerns about token issuance. Coupled with ongoing developments such as the AI creation engine and mobile version, new stories are continuously provided to the market. However, it is important to note that the short-term gains are significant, indicators have entered overbought territory, and Korean market funds tend to move quickly in and out. Once profit-taking concentrates, the correction could be severe. Even with strong momentum, systemic risks in the broader market cannot be ignored. I sincerely want to advise those who are thinking about buying $ZEC now to be cautious! ZEC is currently following a swing trading pattern; if you don't find the right entry point, it's really easy to get trapped.
ZEC current price is 1,311.83, down 3.24% in 24 hours. The long-short account ratio is 42.44% longs versus 57.56% shorts, with a long-short ratio of 0.74.
Although shorts slightly dominate in number, the long-short ratio showed a clear surge during the session, quickly rebounding from 0.72 to 0.89, indicating short-term longs are rapidly entering. The funding rate curve is entirely below zero, meaning shorts have to pay longs; the short side is still too crowded.
I opened a short at 1,400.99, currently with a floating profit of 17.32%, the direction was spot on. Why did I profit? Because the nature of ZEC's market has changed; it’s no longer a one-sided short squeeze but a back-and-forth harvest. Previously, it rebounded between 1,233 and 1,366, sweeping out those chasing shorts, and now it has fallen back near 1,311, trapping those chasing longs.
The area from 1,400 to 1,450 above is a previous trapped zone; if it breaks up there, someone will sell hard. The key support is at 1,233 below; breaking that would be a new low. The middle range is a meat grinder where longs and shorts both get cut. If you don’t find the right position, entering is just giving away your money.
I only do swing trades: short at highs, long at lows, never stubbornly holding. $BTC $ETH #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $FIL This trade marks a full stop for today's bearish consensus. Shorted at 1.1583 with 50x leverage, currently at 1.1047, floating profit of 231%.
The market structure is very clear: previously it surged from 1.04 to 1.2098, then entered a downshifted consolidation. When I shorted at 1.1583, I observed that the rebound volume completely failed to keep up, and the sideways movement around 1.16 formed a “soft top.” The break was a large bearish candle that smashed through 1.12 with volume, spiking down to 1.0739, with volume bars maxed out—this indicates concentrated stop-loss and profit-taking from bulls. A 3.94% drop in 24 hours; as a veteran mainstream coin, this volume-driven sell-off still packs a punch.
But at this point, mindset must shift. After several consecutive full-profit shorts, the market consensus is so strong that a reversal is likely. The spike to 1.07 with a long lower wick shows that the veteran coin’s low-level support is stronger than altcoins. If volume contracts and it consolidates sideways near 1.10, I will choose to take partial profits to lock in gains, leaving a very light position to see if 1.07 breaks; if it rebounds to 1.12-1.14 with volume, I will never stubbornly hold a high-leverage short.
Overall review of today’s operations: from WLD, XRP to SNDK, MINA, SUI, and then FIL, all follow the script of volume contraction and sideways breakdown during a retreat phase. But repeatedly trading in the same direction easily leads to the mistake of “adding to winning positions and stubbornly holding profits.” With 50x leverage, profit retracements after sharp drops hurt the mindset more than losses. In the end, trading is not about catching a few big bearish candles, but about the discipline to take profits quickly after sharp drops and not cling to positions. Chips and volume don’t lie, but when consensus is crowded, the real winner is the one who lives to exit.$ETH perpetual 100x short position, opened at 2684.16, currently at 2611.8, floating profit +269.58%.
The logic is very simple: repeated failed attempts to rally near 2684.16, every rebound is quickly crushed, the upper shadows are getting longer, and buying pressure is clearly exhausted. Once volume breaks below 2650, confirm on the right side, then enter short. 100x leverage, stop loss at 2700. The decline is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Now moving the stop loss to 2650 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 2550, can hold a bit longer. $BTC $ZEC #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $BTC perpetual 100x short position, opened at 84605.9, currently 83883.4, floating profit +85.39%.
The logic is simple: multiple rejections near 84600 with upper shadows clearly visible, volume expands but price stagnates, indicating effective top resistance. After seeing the stagnation signal, entered short. 100x leverage, stop loss at 85200. The trend oscillates downward, with some rebounds but overall bearish, floating profit exceeds 85%.
$ETH $ZEC
Trailing stop moved up to 84200 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 83500, can hold a bit longer to watch 83000. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Hot Coin Data Rankings｜Last 15 Minutes
$ETH sold more in the first two segments, with buying and selling close in the last segment: overall active buying 39.3%, last segment 53.2%, 15-minute price -2.53%. The seller's advantage did not continue to the end of the window; the most recent segment shows no clear one-sided transaction advantage.
$BTC declined, active buying and selling close, positions shrinking simultaneously: 15-minute price -1.32%, active buying 41.8%, position volume -4.28%. Short-term price is weak, and a combination of increased positions with a price drop has not yet formed.
$NMR declined, active buying and selling close, positions shrinking simultaneously: 15-minute price -1.78%, active buying 44.8%, position volume -2.09%. Short-term price is weak, and a combination of increased positions with a price drop has not yet formed. BTC short-term strategy suggestions:
For holders: Holding positions in the middle of the range is meaningless—long positions above 85,400 with stop loss at 85,000 (exit if the fourth defense line is breached); similarly for positions below 85,300.
Breakout follow-up (main strategy):
Intraday micro pivot signal: Break above 85,800, lightly test long positions, stop loss at 85,250, target 86,350-86,700;
Boundary signal: Volume breakout above 87,400 (daily volume > 15 billion), chase long, stop loss at 86,200, target 89,600-92,200;
Volume breakdown below 84,350, chase short, stop loss at 85,300, target 83,850 → 82,600, if breaking 82,561 then target 81,500-80,350.
Left-side ambush (light position): 85,050-85,250 fourth defense success (15-minute bottom fractal + Delta turning positive), lightly test long, stop loss at 84,700, target 86,300-87,000—this is a "four defenses" game, historically the success rate of the fourth test of the lower triangle edge is about 70%, but strict stop loss is required.
Current status: 85,395, lower edge of the micro pivot. The probability of a directional move in the next 24-48 hours is very high (the morning session volatility has hit a two-week low). It is recommended to set conditional orders on both sides and then stay away from the screen—the most important thing in these two weeks is not to judge but to ensure you are present with the correct position when the signal arrives.
$BTC #星球日报 This recent waterfall drop
has given another opportunity to buy the dip.
This time, I'm still focusing on three: $ZEC, $UNI, $WLD.
ZEC has been one of my main focuses lately; NU7 has entered the testnet phase, and the upgrade logic hasn't changed despite BTC's sharp drop.
UNI dropped back from above $9 to around $8.5, with market volatility wiping out the breakout from a few days ago.
WLD also fell from around $0.60 back to $0.55. It had a big gain last month, so a quick retracement alongside BTC isn't surprising.
BTC quickly dropped from 86000 to 84000, amplifying the losses in altcoins.
For me, this sharp drop that doesn't change the original logic actually brings the price back to my buy-the-dip level $OKB 永续20倍多单，120.24开，现131.82，浮盈+192.61%。
就是赌一个底部反转：120.24 三次测试不破，量能阶梯式递减，底部特征很标准。等阳线拉起来那一刻进场，绝不提前猜底。20倍，止损 118。这一波走得非常干净，几乎没有回踩。
暂时不动，让子弹飞一会儿。125 作为防守线先挂着保住本金安全，等 135 那边给明确信号再说加不减的事，不着急。$ZEC $SOL #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 The crypto market just suddenly experienced a waterfall drop.
$BTC quickly fell from around $86,000 to near $84,000. The gains that were hard-won a few days ago were wiped out again within minutes.
Currently, there is no clear sudden negative news; it seems more like after the continuous failure to break through $87,000, the bulls started to retreat. Coupled with high-leverage positions being liquidated, the short-term decline was rapidly amplified.
Now it has returned to around $84,000, a level that has been contested several times in the past few days.
Whether it can continue to hold $83,000 this time will be more important than finding a piece of news to explain this waterfall drop.
$ETH $ZEC Wednesday 10.07 BTC and ETH outlook:
Brothers, it's been several days since we last met, the National Day holiday is about to end! Did you have fun?
In such a weak BTC market, the worst thing is to quickly pull back immediately after probing the bottom. Currently, the long-term sideways consolidation actually favors the bears more. The market not crashing immediately essentially means it's grinding to accumulate strength by trading time for space, following a pattern identical to previous movements.
From the 4-hour chart, it's very clear that the bulls' rebound strength is insufficient and completely lacks continuity. Every upward surge meets resistance and fails to break the previous high; the upward momentum is clearly lagging.
In truly strong markets, highs and lows must keep moving upward, not repeatedly surge and then fall back. As long as the rebound cannot break the previous high and the market continues to weaken, the possibility of a downward correction grows larger.
Therefore, the trading strategy remains to wait for a rebound to set up short positions. Those already holding shorts can continue to hold patiently, waiting for an accelerated downward move.
Recommendations:
BTC: Short near 857, 865; targets at 845, 839; break below 825
ETH: Short near 2700, 2730; targets at 2660, 2640; break below 2600
$BTC $ETH $BTC 🔥 What was bound to happen has finally come: BTC sinks at 85.1K, ETH follows down at 2684. This is not a black swan event, but a belated slap caused by “87K sell pressure + ETF capital withdrawal.”
Why the drop happens now:
Since 9.23, three attempts to break 87K were rejected, supply zone 86,700–87,570 welded shut as a ceiling.
On 10.5, spot BTC ETF net outflow reached 89.9 million, ETH ETF saw five consecutive withdrawals exceeding 200 million → institutions are exiting first, retail investors find out later.
ISM service sector prices at 74.0 (highest since 2022) → inflation is not dead, 10Y yields at 5.26–5.3% pressuring zero-coupon assets.
Futures open interest at 56.2 billion, funding rates turned positive → long leverage is stacked up, just waiting for a trigger to explode.
Key points after the plunge:
85,000 already touched, 4H close below → 84,000 (on-chain turnover zone 83.3–84.6).
Breaking 84,000 again = weekly chart reversal, 80,625 (200-day moving average) comes into view.
Daily close above 87,200 is needed to talk about 90K; tonight’s FOMC minutes (18:00 UTC) not dovish = second dip.
US stocks hitting new highs, BTC pretending to be dead, a washout of fake bulls was bound to happen.
The plunge itself is not scary; what’s scary is failing to break 87K and not holding 84K.
(Not investment advice · For reference only)$SUI This trade is a typical case of a “bullish news turning bearish” scenario. The page was showing positive news about Mysten Labs collaborating with Google Cloud on verifiable AI agents, but what happened on the chart? It dropped from 1.26 with a steady decline, and when the news came out, there was no volume surge; instead, it hovered sideways around 1.19, with buying interest seemingly dead.
After seeing this pattern many times, it’s clear: bullish news triggers profit-taking. The funds were already retreating, and the news just caused a high open or sideways movement, providing an escape route for profit-takers. I shorted at 1.1926 with 50x leverage, and now near 1.13, I’m holding a floating profit of 244%.
The logic for opening the position was simple: repeated upper wicks above 1.20 without reclaiming the level, volume shrinking day by day, and the last few candlesticks’ center of gravity collapsing downward. When the heavy volume broke below 1.16 with a bearish candle, the bulls’ defense completely collapsed. The close of the session had a wick down to 1.1106, a 4.44% drop in 24 hours. The decline came with huge volume, while rebounds were all low-volume small bullish candles, showing bears fully controlling the market.
However, after several consecutive short trades, today’s environment feels a bit “too consistent.” The wick down to 1.11 on SUI indicates that some funds are picking up bloodied chips at low levels. With 50x leverage, the biggest risk is a rebound washout after a sharp drop. If the 1.16-1.18 range sees a low-volume rebound, I’ll consider it a second short entry point; if it closes back above 1.20 with volume, don’t hold on stubbornly—prepare to take profits in batches and avoid fighting the market.[Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise and Rate Hike Expectations Stir Again, S&P and Nasdaq Close at New Highs, Oil Prices Hit Monthly Lows | 10.7 Morning Report]
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations, causing the probability of an October rate hike to plummet to about 20%; however, a surge in the service sector price index has revived expectations for a December rate hike, leaving the market caught in a "no move in October, possible hike in December" game. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at record highs, the US dollar fell below the 102 level, US Treasury yields declined, and gold rebounded above $4160. The Middle East situation showed more noise than impact, with crude oil exports surpassing pre-war levels and oil prices hitting a one-month low.
⸻
1. Overnight Market
[US Dollar] The US Dollar Index plunged sharply, falling below 102 and closing down 0.27% at 101.84. The euro gained its strongest rise in seven weeks against the dollar, closing up 0.34% at 1.1259.
[US Treasuries] The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 2.8 basis points to 5.286%, and the 2-year yield fell 1.5 basis points to 4.80%. JPMorgan data showed a net purchase of $89 billion in US Treasury futures last week, marking the largest single-week net buying in five years and fully reversing the large-scale sell-off from the previous week.
[US Stocks] All three major US stock indices closed higher. The Dow rose 0.49% to 51,521 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.58% to 7,818.95 points, and the Nasdaq increased 0.45% to 27,599.79 points, with both the S&P and Nasdaq setting new closing records. AMD rose 2.8%, with CEO Lisa Su announcing plans to significantly increase chip supply by 2027 to meet AI demand. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose, but storage hardware showed clear divergence, with Seagate Technology down 9% and Western Digital down nearly 7%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 0.3%.
[Crude Oil] Oil prices fell then rose, rebounding after hitting a one-month low. WTI crude briefly dropped near $86 intraday, ultimately closing up 0.81% at $89.19 per barrel; Brent crude closed up 0.71% at $100.17 per barrel.
[Precious Metals] Spot gold fell then rose, surging above $4180 intraday and closing up 0.56% at $4163.69 per ounce; spot silver closed up 0.47% at $61.34 per ounce.
⸻
2. Macroeconomics
1. September Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise. US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market estimate of about 90,000, with July and August data revised down by a total of 60,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, exceeding expectations, mainly due to an increase in labor force participation. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month-over-month, showing no signs of wage-driven inflation.
2. Rate Hike Expectations Swing Dramatically. After the nonfarm data release, market bets on an October rate hike dropped sharply from over 70% to about 22%, with the baseline scenario shifting to no rate change in October and a 25 basis point hike in December. However, the surge in the service sector price index has revived expectations for a December hike. The market is awaiting the September CPI data on October 14 to further confirm the rate path.
3. Fed Officials Previously Indicated No October Hike. Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as a "Fed insider," noted that Fed officials have repeatedly hinted this week that an October hike is not the baseline expectation. The CEA chair also questioned the necessity of a September hike based on new data, suggesting the Fed should hold steady in October.
4. Domestic Macroeconomics: The People's Bank of China conducted 1.2 trillion yuan in 3-month outright reverse repos on October 8, with 1 trillion yuan maturing that month, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan. Finance Minister Lan Fo'an stated that targeted incremental policies will be studied, focusing more on expanding effective domestic demand. The World Bank raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for East Asia and the Pacific to 4.5%.
⸻
3. Hot Topics/Geopolitical Events
1. Middle East Situation: "Fighting but Keeping Transport Running." On the evening of October 5, Houthi forces attacked Jeddah and Najran international airports in Saudi Arabia, injuring three people. Several oil tankers were hit by "unidentified projectiles" in the Strait of Hormuz, and another tanker was turned back by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
2. But Crude Oil Exports Rise Rather Than Fall. Kepler data shows that Middle East crude oil exports rose to 19.5 to 22.5 million barrels per day between September 24 and 27-29, compared to a pre-war daily average of 18 million barrels. Liquefied natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz in September also reached the highest monthly level since February. The market is pricing in the judgment that geopolitical conflict noise is loud, but actual crude flows have not been interrupted.
⸻
4. Cryptocurrency
1. Bitcoin Falls Below $86,000. Bitcoin is around $85,559, down about 32% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $89.9 million, ending two consecutive days of inflows, with cumulative net inflows dropping to $57.7 billion.
2. Ethereum ETFs See Five Consecutive Days of Net Outflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of about $51 million on the day, with cumulative outflows reaching $206 million. Solana ETFs saw net outflows of $9.3 million, Zcash ETFs $3.6 million, while XRP ETFs remained flat.
3. After CLARITY Act Failure, Regulation Shifts to Institutional Rulemaking. The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, and the CFTC has begun rulemaking for the crypto market (Regulation CTX/CAM), but the spot market remains unregulated. Kristin Smith, head of the Solana Policy Institute, said SEC and CFTC rulemaking will take 18 to 24 months, and if completed before summer 2028, it will be difficult to reverse politically. She also believes the CLARITY Act's return before or after the November midterm elections is "unlikely but possible."
4. Bitwise: Bill Stalling Benefits Four Types of Crypto Businesses. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said that after the CLARITY Act failed to advance, stablecoin platforms retain the ability to offer balance rewards to customers, and exchanges like Coinbase continue to hold state-level licenses and advantages in trading and brokerage business integration.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC $ETH