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BTC这波杀到83500，到底是真底还是诱多？反弹到这儿，空头还没走完。$BTC $ETH 凌晨从85500附近一路砸到83500，4H直接破了前低支撑，现在就是弱反弹，思路偏空但别急着追空。 先看裸K结构。4H从86665高点一路走低，高点不断下移。83500虽然插针后弹了一下，但85000-85500这个压力带还没收复，暂时不能当反转。1H上，83500是这轮下跌的最低点，84200-84500是反弹修复区。只要没重新站上85500，反弹就当成给空头减仓和重新进场的机会。 再看猎杀路径。83500是刚形成的明显低点，短线多单止损和抄底盘都堆在这儿。主力要是继续往下打，大概率先拉到85000附近诱多，再回头扫83500下方的流动性，目标看82800-83000。但如果83500再次被刺破后快速收回，并且重新站上84500，空头就得防一手假跌破反抽。#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 This wave of liquidation was brutal, but the structure is more straightforward than the price.
$429 million liquidated in 4 hours, 96.6% long positions; $469 million liquidated in 12 hours, longs account for 95.3%. 24-hour liquidation surged from $139 million to $552 million, about 104,000 people were liquidated. The largest single liquidation came from Binance ETHUSDC, valued at $26.64 million. This morning I said the dip would be filled, now ETH is down 3.2%, ENA down 7.9%, not because the prediction was accurate, but because the leverage structure is too crowded.
But three things remain unchanged: BTC dominance is still around 58.7%, ETH ETF daily net value +7.8 million, holdings only reduced by 1.14%. Price is dropping, but capital is not systematically withdrawing. My judgment: this is a leverage cleanup, not a trend reversal.
BTC is at 84,211, down 1.60%, range 83,577–86,694. After the washout, the market is usually cleaner, but longs still account for 76% in the 1-hour window, indicating it’s not fully cleared yet. The variable is the Fed’s September meeting minutes at 02:00 AM tomorrow, CME gives a 79.5% probability of no change in October.
Do you think this wave is over or just beginning?
BTC ETH $ZEC #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Macro
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extreme risk; position sizing and stop-loss must be prioritized. #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ One year ago, this whale bought TRUMP tokens totaling $11.55 million, averaging about $10 each. Today, each token is worth only $1.9.
Onchain Lens monitored that this whale initially purchased 1.148 million TRUMP tokens in batches from Gate and OKX, and has just moved all these tokens to a new wallet without leaving any behind.
Let's do the math:
1. The cost was about $11.55 million, averaging about $10 per token.
2. At approximately $1.885 per token, this batch is now worth about $2.16 million, a floating loss of about $9.39 million over one year, a drop of 81.3%.
3. At the time of writing, TRUMP on OKX is about $1.90, down about 5.7% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of $1.76.
4. Compared to last week's monitoring by Residue: the TRUMP team transferred out about 81.87 million tokens over 8 months, cashing out about $249 million. The team is selling, the whales are holding, and after holding for a year, this is the result.
Moving tokens to a new wallet does not mean they have been sold; it could just be an address change or preparation for batch selling. Next, we need to see if these tokens will flow into exchanges.
With an 81% loss, if you were this whale, would you cut losses at $1.9 now or keep holding to wait for breakeven?
$TRUMP $BTC This afternoon while slacking off, I came across a monitor showing a certain whale sweeping 40,000 coins in 10 days, and there's still money flowing into the ETF. I just checked the liquidation chart; over 30 days, leveraged long positions are stacked more densely than shorts. The key point is—if it drops another 7%, about $10 billion worth of positions might line up to be liquidated, and the 79,000 to 82,000 range is exactly a dense buying zone. Simply put, they're testing liquidity by dumping a few points in, and the positions you're watching are shaking along. I haven't moved my own position; at this level, I won't chase or cut. Let's see if it can reclaim 84,000; if not, it will keep grinding. Following this kind of setup is basically making clothes for others to wear, just watch and learn. $BTC 我們來看一下比特幣的部分。 先講結論：短線的下跌，跟我們前面講的一樣出來了。 上一輪我們的方向是偏空看，停損放 87,300。這段時間價格從紅色供給區一路往下，15:01 的小時圖報 84,183，清單上 84,170.3，日跌約 1.56%。 這種時候最重要的不是「還能跌多少」，而是先把已經拿到的利潤顧好。 【操作建議】 有空單的：可以考慮止盈，分批收、先落袋一部分。 還留著空單的：停損一樣是 87,300，不用往下移，也不要放寬。 想做多的：再等等。現在不是找多單進場的時候，方向出來我會再跟大家宣布。 這一輪沒有新的進場價，也沒有目標位，就是處理手上的單。 止盈不一定要一次出清，可以先收一半，剩下的用 87,300 保護；這樣就算後面反彈，也不會把利潤整段吐回去。 【技術面｜1H】 幣安 BTC 永續 1 小時圖，15:01 截圖。當下這根 K：開 84,182.6、高 84,194、低 84,170.3、收 84,183，幾乎是小十字，跌勢先喘口氣。 上方那塊紅框是「Strong High」下方的供給區，圖上標價 86,796.9，價格這兩天在框下緣反覆碰，最後選擇往下。 跌下來On-chain movements are very direct. In the past 24 hours, BTC whales have reduced holdings by about 30,000 coins, corresponding to a scale of $2.52 billion, while ETH whales have actually increased holdings by 60,000 coins, and XRP remained unchanged. Capital votes with its feet; in the short term, ETH is more resistant to selling pressure.
ETH current price is 2616.9. On TradingView, MACD shows a death cross but RSI has already entered the oversold zone. Around 2597, there is a large peak of long liquidations, indicating that there is liquidation liquidity below that needs to be swept. The cumulative short liquidation intensity above is about 2.1 billion USDT. This kind of structure usually prefers to first dip down sharply before pulling back. The rider just turned the vehicle into the old neighborhood, the phone is still on the mount urging orders. At this position on the chart, shorting should not be chased.
Specific execution: buy in batches on the pullback from 2602 to 2590, set defense below 2582, and do not hold on to stop loss. The first take profit target is 2648, the second take profit target is 2675. If it breaks below 2582 with volume, the long position is invalidated; reverse and wait for a rebound near 2600 to short, target 2555.
$ETH
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
@OKX星球 Newcomers focus on the present, veterans review the old accounts
Looking back at this year's accounts: In 52 weeks, SOL's lowest touched $60. Today it's 117.11, nearly double that floor. Looking at October, in past years it has risen and fallen three times each, with the worst month dropping 46% and the strongest month rising 80%. October has never been a calm month, and this year will be no exception.
Back when it was around 60, everyone was talking about going to zero, and the voices were loud. Loud voices don’t mean they’re right.
In April, I couldn’t hold at 83, sold half, then watched helplessly as it recovered, climbing all the way to 120. Every dip in between, someone shouted it was the last wave, and every time they were wrong. But next time, they’ll shout again. That tuition was worth paying; it taught me one thing: volatility is the ticket to this chain, if you want to ride, you have to pay. Those who don’t pay only realize it when the train leaves.
Today’s 6% pullback doesn’t even fill a line in that old account book.
I’ve paid my ticket, and I don’t plan to get off halfway.#OKX completes strategic financing with a $25 billion valuation
🔥 Just saw this news, OKX has completed strategic financing with a $25 billion valuation.
This number is really uplifting given the current environment. Many brothers' first reaction is, "The platform has money now, is it going to start pumping the market?"
Let's calmly break it down. In the capital winter, top venture capitalists are investing heavily because they value the platform's cash flow and ecosystem layout, not to prop it up. But this is definitely good news for us retail investors—the platform's reserves are thicker, its ability to withstand black swan events is stronger, and having money in there makes us feel more secure.
However, the platform raising funds and whether Bitcoin goes up are two different things.
The overall environment remains tough. The U.S. Treasury yield at 5.6% is firmly suppressing the market, the October tax season is approaching, on-exchange liquidity is dry, and Bitcoin is still hovering around 85,000. The crypto space right now is a zero-sum game swamp; expecting this financing news to directly trigger a big rally is unrealistic.
The next moves still need to be steady: hold your spot positions firmly, as this is your only confidence during bull-bear transitions; avoid betting on contract directions during this period, as the macro data is dense and sudden spikes up or down can easily liquidate positions; keep some USDT on hand, wait for the tax season selling pressure to clear out, and if the market really crashes to create a golden buying opportunity, that’s when we can enter to pick up discounted chips.
The platform is quietly building higher walls, and we retail investors just need to patiently wait for the cycle’s wind to blow. Do you think this round of financing will accelerate the explosion of the OKX ecosystem? Chat in the comments below 👇$OKB Is Nvidia's “closed loop” about to break down?
SpaceX plans to raise $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, but its own stock price plunged as soon as the news came out. Er Gou figured it out: Nvidia is a major shareholder of SpaceX, and SpaceX has promised exclusive procurement, a typical circular financing where the left hand gives to the right.
Now Nvidia's market value is approaching $6 trillion, with a forward PE of only 17 times, cheaper than the S&P 500. The valuation looks attractive, but the problem is that this “I invest in you, you buy from me” closed loop, once downstream AI returns fall short of expectations, the debt risk will transmit backward along the financing chain.
My judgment: The market is pricing Nvidia's growth potential but has not yet fully priced in the fragility of circular financing.
Action advice: Don't chase NVDA in the short term; wait until this wave of debt concerns is digested before reconsidering. AI computing power is a real trend, but this play is too fragile, so be cautious.
$NVDA $SPCX
#SpaceX拟融资400亿美元采购英伟达芯片
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 $ETH's current order book has distinctive features, with sell orders concentrated above 2700 and buy orders clustered around 2680, indicating funds are defending both ends of the range. Short-term bulls are trying to push the price up, but selling pressure above persists.
The hourly chart shows repeated sweeping back and forth, with short-term funds moving in and out quickly; no large capital has entered to create a one-sided trend. The market now is a battle of existing funds, with volatility compressed.
In this kind of market, avoid heavy positions and wait for funds to choose a direction. A breakout above resistance favors the bulls, while if pressure causes a pullback, the support level below will be tested. $ETH #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 The major partnership officially announced today, October 7, at the Sui Basecamp event in Singapore marks the upgrade of collaboration between Sui and Alibaba Cloud from early-stage Web3 infrastructure services to a deeply integrated on-chain payment ecosystem for the AI Agent economy. Core cooperation mechanism: Users only need to set their spending budget in advance; all subsequent payment processes for cloud services and AI computing power calls will be automatically completed on-chain by AI Agents on the Sui network, without manual confirmation for each transaction. Both parties have implemented stablecoin micro-payment capabilities based on per-call usage. Every AI Agent's computing power request and cloud resource usage can be instantly settled on-chain through the Sui network, completely bypassing the frictions of traditional payment systems. Alibaba Cloud will gain a brand-new service distribution channel specifically designed for AI Agents, allowing the massive number of AI agents on-chain to autonomously access and purchase Alibaba Cloud's cloud computing and AI computing power resources. Details of the announcement event: The release segment was jointly presented by Adeniyi Abiodun, Co-founder and Chief Product Officer of Mysten Labs, and Leo Li, Head of Digital Native and AI Native Industries for Alibaba Cloud in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, making it one of the core product launches centered on the "Agentic Economy" theme at this Sui Basecamp. The announcement took place at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, concurrently linked with the TOKEN2049 industry conference, marking Sui's completion of "from a regular public chain to" BTC's recent plunge, is 83500 the bottom or a bull trap? The rebound has reached here, but the bears are not done yet
Bitcoin suddenly dropped this wave, and now everyone is asking:
Is 83500 the bottom? Or is the main force "tricking you to get on board" and then continuing to fall?
Conclusion first:
It now looks more like "a breather after the drop," not a reversal, so don’t get excited just because you see a rebound.
1. What’s the situation now
At midnight, it suddenly dropped from around 85500 to 83500.
The previous low on the 4-hour chart was broken, the structure is:
Each high is lower than the last, bears still hold the home ground.
It has bounced a bit from 83500 but hasn’t broken through the "pressure wall" at 85000–85500.
So don’t rush to call it the bottom; treat it as "a bit of a rebound after overselling."
2. What tricks might the main force be playing
83500 just became a clear low point, many bottom-fishers and long stop-losses are stacked here.
A common play by the main force might be:
1. First rebound to around 85000 → you think: "Oh, it’s going up," and rush to go long
2. Then turn down again → sweep all stop-losses and bottom-fishing money below 83500
3. The real target might be 82800–83000
But don’t be stubborn:
If 83500 is poked below but quickly pulled back above 84500, be cautious—
This is a false breakdown, bears might get counterattacked.
3. Main idea: short on rebounds, don’t chase longs
If you want to short, don’t short now, wait for a rebound:
- First batch: short near 85000–85200 (aggressive can try 84700)
- Add positions: short more at 85700–85900
- Stop loss: above 86380
- Targets:
- First 84200
- Then 83550
- Then more aggressively near 82900
Remember:
Don’t trust bulls until 85500 is reclaimed.
4. Consider longs only on "deep dips"
Longs are not forbidden, but don’t chase.
- Try small longs at 83550–83700
- If it really drops to 82800–83000, add some longs
- Stop loss below 82150
- Targets at 84350, 84900
And these longs are "pending orders,"
not to chase in when it rebounds above 84200.
If it breaks below 83500 and can’t recover, delete the long plan, don’t fight.
5. Most practical trading advice
Don’t get emotional.
- Main short position stays inactive below 85000–85200
- First sweep below 83500, then quickly pull back before considering auxiliary longs
- Keep position size light, don’t skimp on stop losses
- In this market: surviving is more important than making a quick profit 💀📉
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC In the early morning, $BTC dropped from 85500 to 83900, losing 1600 dollars just like that.
A friend outside the circle asked me this morning if something big had happened again.
Actually, no. It’s just that more people actively sold, plus leveraged longs were forcibly liquidated, and the two combined pushed the price down.
Just look at two numbers. Active sell pressure went from -4.9 back to -3.1, indicating the most panic has passed, but the bears are still there. The liquidation index dropped from -11 to -78, meaning the majority of forced liquidations were longs.
To put it simply, it’s not that someone dumped the market, it’s that some couldn’t hold on.
The 83900 level is quite critical now. If it can’t hold back above it, there might be a second wave.
I want to ask, among those liquidated this time, how many really understood what they were getting into?
#BTC giant whale sell pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks
#Strategy repurchases BTC, multiple financial institutions increase holdings simultaneously #US CFTC advances crypto market rules, SEC plans to adjust custody framework $BTC The first thing I knew when I opened my eyes today was that it was going to be a tough day.
Before the alarm even rang, I reached for my phone. The screen lit up: $HYPE 91.89, green, down 2.82% in 24 hours.
I lay in bed staring at that number for two minutes. The day before yesterday it was hovering near the all-time high of 98, and today it’s dropped straight back to 91. It’s not false to say it hurts; while brushing my teeth, that bearish candle was all I could think about.
Halfway through brushing, I picked up my phone again and checked the weekly chart. Over seven days, it’s still up 6.56%.
This is the daily life of a retail investor: the daily chart slaps you, the weekly chart gives you a candy. I then checked the volume; today’s trading volume is shrinking, the drop isn’t followed by others, it doesn’t feel like panic, more like some people are taking profits after a big rise. Looking at the sentiment index, it’s 67, still in the greed zone.
I finished brushing, washed my face, and noticed the bags under my eyes in the mirror were a bit heavy.
I remembered a saying: when prices rise, you regret not buying more; when they fall, you regret buying too much. Either way, it’s tough. So why make it harder on myself? I won’t check today, time to go to work. Ethereum spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $202 million and has declined for 6 consecutive days, with ETH spot on OKX turning over at $2620.55 and the funding rate stuck at -0.0032%
ETH spot on OKX turned over at $2620.55 with a funding rate stuck at -0.0032%. The Ethereum spot ETF has been bleeding for 6 consecutive days. Those holding spot today stay with Simple Earn to collect interest. Post-market data shows that on October 6th Eastern Time, BlackRock's ETHA had a net outflow of $202 million, and the entire Ethereum ETF has been declining for nearly a week. Bitcoin saw a net inflow of $119 million, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $122 million. Off-exchange funds are all picking Bitcoin to buy.
I just checked the OKX contracts page. Ethereum spot dropped 2.77% in 24 hours, significantly deeper than Bitcoin's 1.21% drop. The total perpetual contract open interest on the platform is $8.243 billion, with ETH contracts accounting for $1.944 billion. The most direct indicator is that ETH's funding rate discount has reached -0.0032%, meaning shorts are paying interest to longs, while the fear and greed index is still at 71 greed.
Institutional funds have been continuously withdrawing outside, making the spot market indeed uncomfortable. But the short funding rate discount indicates that shorts pay interest daily, making short chasing unprofitable.$Lobster short sellers suffered a bloodbath, can Lobster still chase the longs?
Within 24 hours, liquidations exceeded $2 million. Among them, short liquidations reached as high as $1.31 million, accounting for over 70%. The large-scale clearing of shorts means the resistance above is temporarily cleared, and there may be short-term momentum for a further rise.
As a Meme coin, recent capital inflows remain active, and the continuous liquidation of shorts indicates a clear dominance of bullish sentiment. As long as the capital relay is uninterrupted, the trend still has momentum space.
But being bullish does not mean chasing longs; after shorts are cleared, mechanical buying will gradually disappear, and real spot demand will need to take over. Once capital inflows slow down, a pullback will also come quickly. #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ After the Federal Reserve's September rate hike was implemented, BTC attempted to challenge 87000 three times but failed to hold above it. The September non-farm payroll increase of 29,000 was significantly below expectations, leading the market to lower the October rate hike probability from 50% to 20%. However, this positive news did not push BTC to break through; the price consolidated with low volume around 86000.
Core logic: Funds are waiting for tonight's meeting minutes, remaining cautious without betting in advance. Weekend liquidation totaled only $62.7 million, with short liquidations accounting for 68%. The market overall remains cautious, awaiting guidance from the news.
ETH's performance is weaker, having fallen below the 2700 level, currently priced at $2697. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to decline, with funds favoring BTC, and ETH ETFs seeing continuous net outflows.
Market highlights (QCP): The minutes are the key short-term driver this round. Focus on internal hawkish disagreements:
✅ If officials reach a consensus to pause rate hikes, market pressure will ease, and BTC will attempt to break 87200;
⚠️ If inflation risks are emphasized and employment weakness is seen as only temporary, the 87200 resistance will be hard to break, and ETH will likely retest 2650. #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
⚠️ This is only an observation of market information and does not constitute any investment advice $LIT Originally planned to cut losses as a sacrifice, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself. This short position from entry to realization went as smoothly as a pre-written script.
Just after lunch while watching the market, the resistance above LIT was particularly obvious, and the volume didn't keep up at all. I judged the rebound to be weak and directly opened a short at 3.8592. When it dropped to 3.6836, +228.02% was already in the account. Nailed it.
Closed 80% first to secure profits. The remaining 20% is protected at cost price; if it continues to drop, let the profits run. If it pulls back, don't let the gains become uncomfortable.
Don't let profits inflate, don't despair over pullbacks.
Have a strategy before the market, discipline during, and reflection after.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. There will be more opportunities later; wait for the next shot.
$XRP $BTC Maji really got his main artery cut in this round — *Total position 158 million → 142 million, cut 39 million, that's $BTC 456 → 225 coins cutting losses to protect $ETH*
*First, look at the position changes from this morning until now, your calculation of a 39 million reduction is confirmed:*
- Total perpetual position 158 million → 142 million, 16 million margin evaporated, but your said 39 million nominal position reduction means he added margin to top up and still cut positions, double loss
- $BTC 456 → 225 coins, directly cut in half, 231 $BTC coins sold at $84,500, which is your pain point, from 456 to 225 coins, a position reduction of $19.5 million
*Latest positions broken down into four parts, $BTC and $ETH are the cancer, $HYPE and $PUMP are the painkillers:*
🔴 *$BTC 18.96 million | 225 coins | 40x full position*
Opened at $84,546, now around $84,200, unrealized loss $53,800 looks small, but liquidation price $67,126, 20% below current price, $BTC only liquidates at $67K, safe but cutting from 456 to 225 means he dares not hold $BTC anymore, 40x full position can't hold
🔴 *$ETH 100 million | 38,200 coins | 25x full position — this is the killer*
Opened at $2,682, now $2,600, unrealized loss $2.45 million + funding fee -$1.31 million, actual loss $3.77 million, liquidation price $2,516, 3.2% below current priceThis morning $BTC $SKHYNIX both had two losing trades in a row. Manually setting market stop loss slipped by 200 points, which is a bit frustrating.
Now day trading is a bit difficult to operate because the funds following my trades have increased, causing the short-term trading fees to take up half of the profits.
To be responsible to the brothers who trust me to follow my trades, I will stop day trading from now on.
Starting today, I will focus on weekly swing trading, trying to open fewer trades and seek steady wins.
#BTC whale selling pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks This morning's pullback is most interesting for $DOGE.
BTC and SOL have pulled back to the 20-day moving average, ETH and XRP to the 40-day moving average, while DOGE has directly pulled back to the overlapping area of the 40-day and 250-day moving averages. Moving averages represent the average holding cost; BTC's 20-day moving average is at 83845, which is the cost basis for those who entered in the last 20 days. DOGE's 250-day moving average is between 0.093-0.094, representing the average cost for those who entered in the past year.
The 20-day moving average is a short-term critical level; if it is effectively broken, short-term funds will exit. But DOGE is testing a yearly-level cost, not the 20-day or 40-day. Those who needed to cut losses have done so early; the rest have held for a year. So among these, DOGE has the thickest safety cushion. If the market continues upward, this is a good buying point.
For BTC, SOL, ETH, and XRP, small positions can be tried, but if the 20-day moving average is effectively broken, exit with limited stop loss and controlled risk.$BTC has reached a very interesting position again.
Currently, the price is fluctuating around $84,200, with neither bulls nor bears having a clear advantage in the short term. Watch $85,500 first on the upside, then $86,700; if these two levels break out with volume, the market will have a chance to reopen space.
On the downside, $84,000 is a key support level right now. If it fails, pay close attention to around $83,600.
At this kind of position, chasing the rise or panic selling is the biggest risk. I prefer to wait for confirmation at key points before deciding the direction. How $BTC moves next depends on which of these levels is taken first.At the same time, Bitmine also holds 214 BTC, approximately $643 million in cash and securities.
The impact is somewhat structural, not an immediate price surge.
Continuous buying locks up circulating chips, and reduced staking decreases sellable supply, which supports medium-term selling pressure; however, the weekly increase is only about 15,000 units, relatively limited compared to daily trading volume, so it does not affect intraday volatility.
As the target approaches, incremental growth may slow down. If the stock price or financing comes under pressure, the market will trade as if all has been bought, rather than still buying.
$ETH is currently priced around $2610, down about 3% intraday, falling within the $2590–$2610 support zone.
If it breaks below, look for $2530–$2540, then further down to $2320. Resistance is first seen at $2670–$2720.
Only after stabilizing can we look at the previous highs of $2740–$2780. The staked position is the bottom, not a short-term breakout signal. Don’t let it affect your operations; after all, what you see is only what they want you to see! That recent wave was a typical bull slaughter.
A rapid sharp drop killed longs, with long positions liquidated at 410 million, while shorts only liquidated 14 million, the short side overwhelmingly harvesting.
In the last hour, the pace has clearly slowed, some of the shorting funds were stopped out, and the short side's attacking momentum began to weaken.
Focus on volume: if volume doesn't keep up and short liquidations don't expand, then the rebound trend is weak. This is the current situation—volume hasn't picked up, buyers lack confidence, and the rebound looks more like a bull trap in a downtrend.
In this market, high leverage trading fears this kind of low-volume rebound the most; it looks like a reversal but is actually another wave of selling.
Next, watch two signals: first, whether volume can effectively expand; second, whether the scale of short liquidations starts to increase. If neither appears, don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the market to give a clear direction.
BTC #ETH #ContractTrading #CryptoMarket
The above is a personal review and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extreme risk; position sizing and stop losses must be prioritized.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 ⚠️ 兄弟们，中午重新看了一遍 ETH 合约数据，盘面给我的感觉有点“不太舒服”。 ETH 早盘从 $2,705 一路回落到 $2,620 附近，随后1小时级别快速下探至 $2,598，单小时成交额超过 $1.1亿，抛压明显放大。 但有意思的是，下跌过程中，多空比反而从 1.55 上升到约1.98，未平仓合约也从 $1.62B 增加到接近 $1.68B。 也就是说，价格越跌，抄底做多的人反而越多。 资金费率目前大约 0.0048%，单看这个数值并不算极端，多头情绪也没有到疯狂的程度。但问题在于，杠杆资金正在下跌过程中不断堆积，一旦支撑再次失守，很容易出现多头踩踏和连续清算。 目前我的思路依然比较简单： 🔴 $2,598：短线关键支撑，如果再次跌破，暂时不接飞刀。 🟡 $2,620–2,650：这里更适合观察量价变化，不急着抢反弹。 🟢 $2,665：只有重新站稳并出现成交量配合，我才会考虑顺势跟进。 另外，$BTC 目前大约在 $84,300 附近，整体还没有重新站稳关键位置，所以 ETH 想独立走强，难度依然不小。 现在最怕的不是下跌本身，而是价格下跌、OI上升、多头不断抄底The third culprit: $ETH ETF saw $138 million withdrawn in one week, while $BTC ETF attracted $241 million
Looking at the capital flow, this is the most direct change in the "buyer list."
In the week ending October 5, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $241 million, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows. Meanwhile, the Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of $138 million, reversing from a $690 million inflow the previous week.
Do you understand this rotation?
The money hasn't left the crypto market. It's flowing from ETH to BTC.
BTC dominance is approaching 60%, and Ethereum's relative appeal in institutional allocations is declining. With rising macro uncertainty and US Treasury yields still around 5.26%, institutions prefer to allocate to the "safer" BTC rather than the "high Beta" ETH. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $USELESS $ONE: Short-term bias is bullish.
According to whale data, the long-short ratio is 183.25%, with more long whales, but most are currently at unrealized losses. The average entry price is 0.002659, and the current price is below the cost line, indicating a need for long position recovery. On the daily chart, the price is oscillating at a low level, moving averages are gradually flattening, and selling pressure has somewhat eased. Attack level at 0.0022, defense level at 0.00195.
$AKE: Short-term bias is bearish.
Whale long-short ratio is 102.54%, with both sides suffering large-scale losses. The long entry cost is 0.0351, and the current price is far below cost, so any rebound will face a large amount of trapped positions escaping. The daily chart continues downward, with all MA moving averages above the price. Attack level at 0.027, defense level at 0.0309.
$USELESS: Short-term bias is bearish.
Whale long-short ratio is 189.03%, with large long positions and an average entry price of 0.2331, currently all trapped. The proportion of profitable short whales is close to 70%. Today’s price dropped sharply by 9.12%, with a large bearish candlestick breaking short-term support, and the downward momentum has not yet been fully released. Attack level at 0.20, defense level at 0.239. #September FOMC meeting minutes are about to be released, will rate hikes continue? $ETH from 2720 to 2590 isn't a "fast drop" — it's a normal pullback within the range. 2590 got bought up, so buyers are there.
$BTC at 84k is the key. If it holds, ETH goes back to 2700. If it breaks down, expect 80k on BTC and 2500 on ETH.
Iran and rates are background noise, not a signal. Money moves the market first — news just explains it later.
OKB is holding better — less speculators there. Who's already bought the dip, and who's waiting for 2500 on ETH?Another batch of yield farmers is in despair.
Before TGE, there was still a fantasy: what if this airdrop could break even?
Abstract directly shut down this fantasy too—no token issuance, chain shutdown.
After grinding tasks, accumulating points, paying Gas, and waiting so long, instead of receiving the airdrop, they first got the evacuation notice.
The Fat Penguin team's L2 attracted over 400,000 users and 144 applications, but in the end, the business didn't work out. The CEO said they have lost tens of millions of dollars and don't want to issue a token they themselves lack confidence in, leaving the community to take the hit.
Not issuing tokens to make the final cut is commendable.
But while the project team can stop losses, the time and fees spent by yield farmers can't be refunded with a click.
For those who still have assets on the chain: operations will cease on December 15, 2026. Migrate your assets early through official channels, and do not click on "migration links" sent via private messages.
Before, people feared zeroing out after TGE; now, they might not even get to TGE 😅
Face reality and find a job early!Last night’s prediction about $SNDK was perfectly realized. The bears won.
The current position has already broken below 1650 and is now near 1641.
Moreover, there is still a downward trend continuing. The next target is 1600.
If 1600 is broken, the short-term downtrend channel will open.
The previous view still stands: do not open long positions unless it approaches around 1500.
A drop to 1500 is a good opportunity for those to add spot positions and go long.
In the short term, 1500 is a strong support; the long-term outlook remains bullish 🤔
#美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% Why does the price not necessarily stop falling when a project team is in a hurry to "debunk rumors"?
When I first entered the crypto space, whenever a project had negative news, I looked forward most to the official response.
As long as the team issued a statement saying the address wasn’t theirs, the transfer was just market making or repositioning, or the tokens weren’t unlocked early, I thought the misunderstanding was cleared up and the price should immediately rebound.
Later, after experiencing losses, I understood that statements only explain the narrative, but the on-chain token holdings determine the selling pressure.
I once held a project that crashed, and the official repeatedly posted reassurances while the community claimed it was malicious rumors.
After reading those, I not only didn’t sell but even bought more during the rebound. Later, I found out that although the disputed address didn’t belong to the official wallet, it had financial interactions with early institutions and market makers; the tokens weren’t dumped all at once but gradually sold from multiple addresses. The official didn’t lie outright but also didn’t disclose the full facts.
In such cases, don’t rush to take sides. Look at verifiable facts: where the tokens came from, whether they comply with unlocking rules, whether they eventually flowed into exchanges, if the spot selling pressure has eased, and whether the team is willing to disclose complete addresses and their purposes.
What the market truly cares about is not who won the debate in the chat group, but who is still continuously selling tokens.
Remember: debunking rumors can repair sentiment but cannot magically eliminate selling pressure; when written explanations conflict with fund flows, trust the on-chain token holdings first.Teacher A's Live Trading Record | Dollar-Cost Averaging $SOL Day 277, Profit Retracted but No Panic 📉
📅 Check-in Day: Day 277
💰 Current Holdings: 129.92318332 $SOL
📊 Total Assets: ¥103,389.70
📉 Current Profit: Retracted from previous high (1-year profit +¥40,067.30 / +61.73%)
🪙 Current Price: ~118.68 USDT (-1.51%)
The current market is "testing patience," surging then pulling back, so the numbers on paper don't look as good.
But looking back at the daily chart, this pullback is still within normal volatility range. 🏔️
My strategy is simple:
1️⃣ Buy according to plan regardless of price movement.
2️⃣ Buy more when it drops, buy less (or hold) when it rises.
3️⃣ Uninstall the app and live well.
In this market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits. #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
Any friends also dollar-cost averaging SOL? Raise your hand in the comments! 🙋
OKX #SOL #DollarCostAveragingDiary #LiveTradingRecord #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ BTC 85,000 is the short-term lifeline; losing it means weakness is hard to reverse
Bitcoin has been tugging back and forth around $83,800, with the 85,000 mark becoming the dividing line between bulls and bears. Previously, the price once surged to 85,000 but failed to hold, then quickly fell back, indicating that selling pressure at this level remains heavy. The difference from 83,800 to 85,000 is only $1,200, about 1.4%, yet it determines the short-term strength or weakness — if it can't reclaim this level, the weak consolidation will continue.
Ethereum is performing weaker, with $2,600 facing a direct test. In contrast, ZEC still has support around $1,300, but its own volatility is intense; resilience does not equal reversal, so it should not be overinterpreted.
A lot of profit-taking positions have accumulated from the previous rise. Once key support is broken, take-profit orders and forced liquidations may combine to increase selling pressure, accelerating the decline. The only number to watch closely now is $83,000: holding it means weak oscillation continues; losing it opens up short-term correction space.
On the news front, whale selling pressure has weakened, ETF funds have seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, institutions like Strategy are still increasing holdings, and Winklevoss's affiliated institution has also applied for a ZEC spot ETF. The medium- to long-term capital outlook is relatively positive, but short-term trends are still decided by the 83,000–85,000 range battle. Until BTC stabilizes above 85,000, the short-term bias remains weak.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Outflow data isn't a short signal — it's a caution signal. The futures market always acts like this before a big move.
Until BTC sees net inflow again on the daily, any long is a lottery. But shorting at the bottom of an outflow is just as dumb.
I'd wait for the 24h outflow to get cut in half. Then I'd look long. Until then, I'm sitting on my hands.
Who's already positioned, and who's waiting for the flow to turn?兄弟们，BTC这波回落的结构依然偏弱。 过去24小时，BTC多头清算规模约 $68.4M，明显高于空头的 $22.3M。虽然空头清算笔数达到约 1,620笔，多头只有约 910笔，但从仓位规模来看，真正受到重创的还是高杠杆多头。换句话说，这次下跌更像是在集中清洗追涨资金，而不是空头被全面逼退。 期权市场同样没有出现极端恐慌。当前Put/Call持仓比约 0.95，成交量比值升至 1.14，新增仓位的防守情绪有所增加。DVOL目前约 37.2，仍处在相对温和的水平，说明市场虽然偏谨慎，但还远没有进入恐慌性抛售阶段。 资金费率最近几个周期基本围绕零轴运行，多空杠杆暂时没有形成明显的单边拥挤。 从K线结构来看也比较明显： 📉 下跌放量 📈 反弹缩量 这通常意味着下方抛压仍然存在，反弹暂时更像技术性修复，而不是趋势反转。 目前BTC价格大约 $84,200，距离日内低点 $83,500 已经非常接近。只要这个位置再次失守，我认为市场很可能继续向下寻找流动性，短线甚至不排除测试 $82,800–$82,000 区域。 另外，近期美债长端收益率仍然偏高，美元和原油的波动也给风险资产带来压力。美$DOGE was shorted around 0.09595 this time, with the price dropping all the way to 0.09075, yielding a floating profit of 2.71 times. Previous attempts to break around 0.096 failed to hold, with rebound highs continuously declining. Then a high-volume long bearish candle directly disrupted the short-term rhythm.
The most obvious feature in this segment is the sudden surge in volume during the decline, indicating concentrated emotional release during the sell-off phase. Now the price has pulled back from the low of 0.08783, but the 4-hour momentum remains weak, and the MACD is still below the zero line, so for now, it can only be viewed as an oversold rebound.
Whether the price can hold around 0.090 in the short term is critical. If it cannot recover to 0.093–0.094, the rebound space will be limited; if it falls below 0.0898 again, the previous low of 0.0878 may be tested.
At this point, I will not chase shorts anymore. I will secure existing profits first and wait for a rebound to provide a better entry point rather than aggressively selling at a low level. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ $BTC increases position and falls, $ZEC holds steady, $HYPE drops 2.2%.
According to the current market conditions, $BTC is around $84,214, $ZEC around $1,323, $HYPE around $91.16. BTC down 1.3%, ZEC nearly flat, HYPE weakest.
BTC is below the 1-hour EMA20 at $84,914, positions increased by 5.0% in coin count. Price falls, leverage rises, new longs under pressure; funding rate remains positive, if the rebound does not reclaim $84,600, stop loss will still be triggered.
ZEC positions decreased by 2.3%, price holds above $1,300, temporarily stable after deleveraging. Winklevoss has submitted a ZEC spot ETF application, but approval remains uncertain.
HYPE down 2.2%, positions decreased by 2.2%, decline accompanied by exit. Options products and ETF net inflows provide a mid-term narrative, short-term price still suppressed by the $91.60 moving average.
OKX smart money is 85.6% net long on BTC by amount, but total positions decreased by about $11.34 million; more people long does not equal continued capital increase. ZEC total positions increased by about $540,000, while HYPE continues to shrink significantly.
If BTC reclaims $84,600 on the 1-hour close and holds on pullback, light long positions can be taken, stop loss at $84,150, target $85,450, about 1.9R; if it breaks below $83,500, do not rush to buy, wait for support to reappear near $83,000.$WLD This is a 50x short position opened at 0.5651, now at 0.5256, with an unrealized profit of 349.49% (profit amount +0.03). Seeing this string of green numbers, I didn't dare to relax my hand. The overall profit of the current account is very substantial, but the state is more tense than when the position was opened — consecutive wins are the easiest precursor to mistakes; the smoother it goes, the more afraid I am of getting carried away.
The market is very weak: after oscillating at a high of 0.5904, it has steadily declined, breaking the 0.54 support level with a large bearish candle accelerating the drop, reaching a low of 0.5100, currently quoted at 0.5257 (down 5.17% in 24h). Volume is 115 million, with 219 million tokens traded; the bottom decline shows obvious volume expansion, confirming real selling pressure. As the No.37 AI sector token, no matter how good the narrative is, without capital support it's just empty talk. The market is more honest than any positive news; capital is running away, which means weakness.
What I fear most now is a sector sentiment resonance rebound. The current price 0.525 is close to the previous low of 0.5100, with all short profit-taking below. This highly elastic sector coin is very prone to instant spikes triggered by Bitcoin resonance or sector news. With 50x leverage, a rapid 3% rebound (up to 0.54) can wipe out most of the 349% profit. The rule is the sharper the drop, the stronger the rebound.
Defense is extremely strict: absolutely no adding to the position or increasing leverage. Let the base position run profits but must set a trailing stop to protect the principal. Watch closely the 0.54-0.55 rebound resistance zone; if volume shrinks and it can't hold above, keep half the position. If volume surges breaking 0.55 or dropping below 0.51 with a quick pullback (long lower shadow/pin bar), take all profits immediately. Do not hold onto the illusion of "it can still hit new lows."Your three-layer crazy bull stratification calculates the difficulty of $CORE's hundredfold dream too soberly — *it's not just about one bull market, it's like winning the lottery four times*
*First layer: Basic crazy bull 3-5x, you're absolutely right, but even 3x is hard:*
$BTC bull market $BTC from $83K to $150K +80%, $CORE rebounds along the track from $0.52 to $1.56-$2.6, 3-5x. But your mentioned shortcomings are fatal:
- BTCFi diversion: Babylon TVL $6.2B, Merlin $1.8B, Core $380M, only 5%, $BTC bull market money goes to Babylon first
- 69 million ghost chips: team + early unlocks, daily selling pressure $120K, if it rises 10% they dump, on the way to 3x need to digest $21M selling pressure
Reality: Last round when $BTC was $69K, $CORE was only $0.8; this round $BTC $87K $CORE $0.52, $CORE not hitting new highs when $BTC hits new highs is proof of diversion.
*Second layer: BTCFi mainline crazy bull 8-15x, your 8-15x is the ceiling:*
Trigger conditions: $BTC bull market + BTCFi becomes mainline + TVL surges, Core TVL must grow from $380M to $3B, 8x growth is necessary.
But your mentioned shortcomings are even harsher: quantum-resistant dual signature must be audited and launched,In about two hours in the early morning of October 7, BTC fell from $85,500 to $83,900. Its TakerOrder Pressure Oscillator once dropped to -4.9, indicating that active market sell orders significantly outweighed buy orders; meanwhile, the Liquidation Pressure Oscillator fell from -11 to -78, showing that this round of decline was accompanied by a large number of long liquidations. As of 04:00 UTC, BTC rebounded to about $84,100, and the selling pressure indicator also rose back to -3.1. Ader pointed out that a single deep negative value cannot confirm a trend reversal; what is more worrisome is BTC continuously breaking below $83,900, while the selling pressure and long liquidation indicators remain negative consecutively. Similar indicators had previously quickly recovered after brief extremes. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC The drop in the past couple of days, my own feeling is: what is meant to come will come.
At the end of September, when it touched 87,000, the short-term floating profit was already 33%, the highest in 21 months. This data being here means that above are all people waiting to take profits, and any slight negative news will cause them to rush out. Daly's hawkish stance was just a trigger; even without him, there would be others.
I’m not too concerned about the rise and fall in a day or two now. What I’m watching are a few big things: whether ETFs are still flowing in, whether institutions are still buying, and whether inflation is still going down. None of these have changed so far. The 83,000 level is a chip area that was ground for a long time before, if it holds, it’s still okay.
I’m still bullish in the fourth quarter, but it won’t be a one-sided market. If it rises too much, it will pull back; if it falls deeply, someone will catch it. This rhythm is actually healthier than a continuous rally.
As for my position, I’m about half invested, keeping half my bullets. I dare to buy on dips, but won’t chase on the rise. Your description of "$DOGE's slow decline after a pump" perfectly captures the current stealthy sell-off — *the strength is fake, 0.096 is today's false breakout ceiling*
*Let me quantify the market situation you mentioned:*
- Today $DOGE pumped from $0.092 to $0.096, a +4.3% gain that looks strong, but the volume was only $1.1B, down 39% from yesterday's $1.8B; price rising on shrinking volume = the divergence you mentioned
- After reaching 0.096, every 15-minute candle had an upper shadow; four attempts at $0.0961, $0.0963, $0.0960, and $0.0959 were all rejected, with $24M of selling pressure stacked between $0.096 and $0.0965, which is the significant selling pressure you noted
- Slow decline: from $0.096 down to the current $0.0948, dropping 0.2% per hour, a stealthy decline without volume, the most exhausting pattern where bulls don't die and bears don't explode
*What you said about the high likelihood of continued consolidation is exactly $DOGE's fate right now:*
$BTC at $83,800 can't reclaim 85K, and $DOGE as a meme coin has no independent rally; your point that short-term meme coins won't have big moves is spot on, with $BTC Dominance at 58.2% sucking liquidity from meme coins into $BTC. 10.07 Gold Midday Review
Spot gold surged to $4169.96/oz in early trading before facing pressure and retreating, currently quoted around $4134, down 0.71% intraday. On the one-hour chart, the price broke below the Bollinger middle band, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a shift to a bearish trend; the 30-minute candlestick continues downward, short-term bears are active, and the price is testing support zones.
Key Levels
Resistance: 4150-4160
Support: 4130-4110
Trading Strategy
Gold prices fell at midday, showing short-term weakness; avoid chasing the dip. If the price rebounds to the 4150-4160 resistance zone and stalls, consider shorting for a target of 4130-4110. Strictly limit the number of trades per day and only seize high-quality, stable opportunities. Maintain a wait-and-see stance around the middle of the range.
Volatility is increasing today, and news events may trigger rapid stop-hunts. Participate with light positions and set stop-losses accordingly. $XAU $MINA This is a 20x short position opened at 0.12695, now at 0.10316, with an unrealized profit of 374.79% (profit amount +0.72). Looking at this exaggerated string of green numbers, my hands are shaking even more than with the previous trades—the most profitable trade, and also the one that tests human nature the most. After a series of high-leverage profitable trades, this one is another big win, but the current situation is extremely dangerous, making it very easy to make the fatal mistake of "thinking you've earned enough and trying to gamble again."
The market is in a one-way waterfall decline: from a high of 0.17127, it has been relentlessly dropping with almost no decent rebound, hitting a low of 0.09957, currently quoted at 0.10317 (a 24h plunge of 16.25%). Volume is 34.53 million, with 35.63M tokens traded; the volume surge at the bottom is very obvious, and the selling pressure is a real stampede. As the No.20 Layer1&2 project, the market action is more honest than any narrative—the funds are fleeing, showing weakness, with no support.
The biggest fear now is a violent rebound after a rapid oversell. The current price of 0.103 is close to the previous low of 0.09957 (psychological level 0.1), with all short positions below ready to take profits. With 20x leverage, a 5% instant spike (from 0.1 to 0.105) can wipe out more than half of the 374% profit. The sharper the drop, the stronger the rebound—this is ironclad.
Defense is extremely strict: absolutely no adding to the position or increasing leverage; let the base position run profits but must set breakeven/moving stop-loss. Watch closely the 0.11-0.12 rebound resistance zone; if volume shrinks and it can't hold above, keep half the position; if volume surges breaking 0.12 or falling below 0.09957 with a quick pullback (long lower shadow/pin bar), take all profits immediately.The AI hype wave in South Korea has directly extended into the crypto sector.
According to Chainalysis statistics, as of June 2026, AI-related crypto assets have become the hottest main trend in KRW trading. The leading token is Worldcoin (WLD).
Over the past year, WLD's cumulative trading volume in the South Korean market reached as high as $7.41 billion, far surpassing other tokens in the same sector. Following closely are Sahara AI with about $3.2 billion and Virtuals with about $2.7 billion; WLD's trading volume is roughly twice that of Sahara.
Another very representative data point: the trading share of AI tokens in the KRW market is 19.5 times that of the JPY market. This clearly shows that this is not a short-lived concept pulse; South Korean retail investors are heavily betting on AI crypto assets, and WLD is the core choice in this round of the market.
It is important to emphasize that the $7.41 billion figure is the transaction volume, not WLD's market capitalization; the two should not be confused. This wave of special funds in South Korea has also created a very valuable regional market sample for WLD. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 This $UNI position achieved a floating profit of 375.25%. At that time, the market rise was judged to be driven by sentiment during the phase of a price surge. The market was strongly bullish, but there was weak support at the high levels, and many funds took the opportunity of the rise to exit. Therefore, a short position was taken at 8.874.
Many traders are easily influenced by continuous rises, blindly following the trend and ignoring the risks hidden at high levels. Sentiment-driven rallies are difficult to sustain for long.
$UNI $PEPE $DOGE The technical logic of this BTC/USDT Short Call can be understood as follows. A quick reminder: the data you posted is a snapshot at a specific point in time; BTC prices change rapidly, so these price levels are better used as technical references at that moment, not as real-time market prices.
📊 Core of this analysis
BTC fell back to $84,200 after rising from $74,955 → $87,399. The author defines this as a "healthy pullback," not a trend reversal.
Moving average structure:
MA5: $85,359 → first short-term resistance
MA10: $84,697 → second resistance
MA20: $84,248 → important boundary near the current price
$83,577 → 24-hour low
$82,000 → strong support
Therefore, the author's core judgment is:
As long as BTC holds near MA20 at $84,248, the short-term outlook can still be bullish.
🟢 If $84,248 holds
Possible path:
$84.25K → $84.7K → $85.36K → $86.69K → $87.4K
Especially if it climbs back above $85.36K, it indicates short-term momentum is starting to recover.
A true breakout above $87.4K would be a stronger signal that this pullback is turning back into a continuation of the uptrend.
🔴 If $84,248 breaks
This analysis'...Yunshu 10.6 Gold Midday Review
Overnight surged to 4169 but met resistance and fell back, bottoming at 4126 before a slight rebound, current price 4135. The short-term is an oversold rebound after a decline, stabilized at the 4-hour level, with a strategy mainly focused on buying the dip.
The market must hold above 4135 for the rebound space to open, with resistance at 4153, 4169, and 4184.
If the rebound lacks strength and cannot hold above 4135, further adjustments will occur. Support is at 4126 and 4120; breaking below 4120 returns to the low range, targeting 4105-4098; if 4098 fails, this rebound ends, looking down to 4080 and 4060.
Trading strategy:
Buy on dips around 4126-4130 if stabilized, targeting 4135 and 4153; if successfully holding above 4135, add more positions following the trend, aiming for 4153 and 4169. $XAU #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ $JTO This time I opened a short position around 0.562, and the price has now dropped to 0.5313, with an unrealized profit of about 2.73 times. After previously surging to 0.593 but failing to hold, the subsequent highs have been steadily declining. The 4-hour retracement in this round has basically eaten up the previous rebound space.
Now the price is close to the 0.5303 support. After a short-term continued drop, there is a slight pullback, but volume has not significantly increased, so the rebound strength is temporarily weak. The MACD bearish bars are expanding again, and the KDJ is pressed at a low level. In this market condition, I will not chase to add more shorts.
If the 0.530 area cannot hold, it may continue to test around 0.52 below; conversely, if it recovers back above 0.545, the 0.559–0.570 range above could easily become a rebound target.
Profits have already been realized, and going forward I prefer to let the position follow the structure, first securing the gains already made in this segment. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ This rebound of SpaceX has the market once again packing a very distant future into today's stock price.
As of the close on October 6 Eastern Time, public quotes show the stock price at about $171.92, with a market value of approximately $2.33 trillion. The rebound is strong, but with such a scale of valuation, investors are clearly buying not just the existing launch business, but also satellite internet, subsequent expansions, and many more expectations yet to be realized.
Don't forget its first earnings report after going public, which made the market reassess spending. An AP report in August noted rapid revenue growth that quarter, alongside a significant increase in R&D and infrastructure investment. For a company like this, fast revenue growth and large cash needs can coexist perfectly. Directly equating "great technology" with "stock price is cheap" overlooks too many factors in between.
Such companies do indeed make people willing to think further ahead, and I can understand that enthusiasm. But once the market value returns to a high level, the subsequent results must be large enough to justify the price already paid.
The most frustrating part of stock investing is this: the long-term judgment about the company may be correct, but if you pay too much at purchase, the returns will still be painful. The rebound proves that someone is willing to bid again. Whether the investment can turn into sustained cash returns will need to be observed in the next few earnings reports.
#SpaceX股价反弹，创7月以来新高