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10.8 BTC Silk Road The hourly Bollinger Bands experienced a rapid dip, and after the price touched a low, a long lower shadow candlestick appeared, indicating a quick release of short-term bearish momentum. The lower Bollinger Band formed support, representing a recovery phase after a sharp drop. Wait for a stabilization signal before buying the dip to set up long positions; do not blindly chase the rally. Entry Conditions Price retraces to the 82900~83100 range, closes with a stop-fall candlestick, does not make a new low, and indicators stop declining, confirming stabilization before entering long positions. Stop Loss: Below 82700. If this level is effectively broken, the current rebound structure fails, and long positions should be exited immediately. Take Profit in Two Stages 1. First Take Profit: 83800, reduce half the position to secure some profit; 2. Second Take Profit: 84400, play the remaining position against the upper resistance. Sharp drops are mostly short-term emotional venting; trend recovery takes time. Be patient and wait for support stabilization signals. Do not bottom-fish prematurely during the decline. $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Another coin in the sol ecosystem took off today $MET $MET It rose from around $0.30 to a peak of about $0.45, a stage increase of nearly 50%, doubling within the month, with trading volume expanding nearly 4 times Checked the news, mainly the DLMM Pro announced by Meteora on October 6 The token issuance project can set initial liquidity, opening method, and fees by itself, and the fees can be high at first then lower LP positions are NFT-ized, supporting merging, locking, and delegation. The official says the pool setup cost is directly reduced to 1/10 of the original Meteora is no longer just making liquidity pools for others but further entering the token launch phase, starting to compete for the Launchpad market The fundamentals are also good, with recent DEX trading volume around $187 million, and weekly active addresses once reaching 175,000 Additionally, the protocol fee share ratio has increased from 5% to 10%, and staking $MET can also share part of the DLMM fee income However, DLMM Pro is still in the waitlist phase One on-chain address, likely a custody and distribution address, withdrew 8 million $MET from bybit 8 hours ago and then deposited into this address 2 hours ago Currently, this address holds about 114.2 million MET, valued at approximately $51.2 million导语 市场正在走出亏损交易为主的阶段。 本报告所提及市场、项目、币种等信息、观点及判断，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。 撰文 0xWeilan @ eMerge IS $BTC BTC 9月末收于约83,570美元，完成关键支撑位测试，全月上涨6.37%。继8月强势突破200日均线后，本月在美联储加息落定后再度强攻，跃上365天线。 据「EMC Labs周期研判模型」判断：过去两个月，BTC已完成周期反转，提前进入新周期的“修复期”阶段。 在油价高企、高利率环境下，BTC走势之强，令人错愕。此外，资金流入仍集中于ETF渠道，原生现货参与度仍然较低。我们认为，随着参与者群体变化、主导力量更迭，诸多不确定性并未消除，日后大幅回撤亦不可避免，但上一周期的出清持续时间和出清规模已相当充分，筹码成本重置后少量资金涌入即可推动价格大幅上升，链上盈利活动开始接近亏损，已经符合“修复期”特征。因此调整此前BTC将在第四季度结束旧周期的判断，而倾向于周期反转在第三季度已经完成。周期投资者应建立足够体量的多头仓位。 基于“修复期”的特征，第四季度应着重验证价格回撤时市场能否给予坚实承接，以及各类资金能否被Specifically, at the Sui Basecamp event in Singapore on October 7, Sui announced a new throughput test achieving 40,614,180 transactions per second (TPS). This figure more than doubles the initial target of 20 million TPS and far surpasses the previous record of over 6 million TPS set in July. This is an incredibly impressive number when compared to current blockchain standards. However, there is one important point to note: 40.6 million TPS does not represent the live processing speed of the enMorning Report: $BTC BTC breaks below 83,000, SOL hanging at 116! 30x full-position long extremely dangerous, the primary task at market open is "survival" 📝 Main Text Good morning brothers, a new day begins, market sentiment remains weak. The market experienced a slow decline overnight, BTC broke below 85,000 and continues to seek support, currently around 83,020 (-0.47%). SOL is also under pressure, hitting a 24-hour low of 115.14, now around 116.07 (-0.52%). On the daily chart, both major coins show short-term bearish alignment, the market is digesting previous profits. 📊 Market Snapshot: Moving averages pressing down, searching for bottom support BTC: Daily MA5 (84,510), MA10 (84,395), MA20 (84,132) all diverging downward, price firmly suppressed below moving averages. SUPERTREND is far below at 79,507. The 24-hour low is 82,700; if it cannot quickly reclaim 84,000 today, it will likely continue testing 82,000 or even lower. On the news front, IMF completed a $1.4 billion financing agreement with El Salvador, a small macro positive but unlikely to reverse the short-term technical downtrend. SOL: Daily MA5 (118.80), MA10 (118.83), MA20 (117.80) also all downward, price struggling near 116. SUPERTREND at 106.52. SOL fell steadily from 119 to 115 last night, currently in a weak sideways consolidation after a sharp drop. Resistance above is 118-119, support below at 115.14 (today's low); breaking below will accelerate a drop to 112. 🩸 Position Diagnosis (Extremely Dangerous, Must Act Immediately) Based on your position screenshot, your current SOL long (full position 30x) is in an extremely dangerous situation: · Entry price: 116.11 · Mark price: 116.05 · Unrealized loss: -0.47U (-1.80%) · Margin: 26.18U · Liquidation price: 112.74 Critical Risk Analysis: 1. Very close to liquidation: Current price 116.05, only 2.8% above liquidation price 112.74! With 30x full leverage, if SOL drops just 3%, your 26.18U margin will instantly be wiped out. A 3% intraday move is very common for SOL. 2. Fighting against the trend: Daily moving averages are bearish, BTC is still searching for a bottom; holding a high-leverage long now is a classic "catching a falling knife" scenario. 3. Stop loss is ineffective: Your stop loss is set at 113, which is very close to the liquidation price 112.74; once triggered, it’s basically the same as being liquidated. 💡 Urgent Morning Action Instructions (Must Execute) First, immediately reduce or close your position! Do not hold any illusions. While the price is still near 116 (your cost line), immediately close at least half your position or close all. Exiting at breakeven or a small loss of 0.5U is far better than being liquidated and losing 26U. Second, if you insist on holding, immediately move your stop loss up! Do not keep the stop loss at 113! Move it up to 115.0 (just below today’s low). This means if SOL breaks below 115, you manually admit defeat and exit, losing about 2.5%, roughly 1U. This is within your tolerable range and you must not let the position drag down near 112.74. Third, absolutely no margin top-up! Do not add funds to average down your cost; this is a bottomless pit. Adding margin to a high-leverage long in a downtrend is equivalent to giving money to the market. 📌 Summary The market is in a correction phase; BTC and SOL daily moving averages are bearish. Your current SOL full-position 30x long is only 2.8% away from liquidation, a ticking time bomb. The iron rule of trading is: capital first, follow the trend. Admit this position is wrong, exit decisively with a small loss, or at least set your stop loss at 115 to keep control of your survival. After this drop stabilizes (e.g., BTC recovers above 84,000), it’s not too late to go long again. Brothers, with the market falling, do you hold longs? Ready to stop loss or hold on? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SOL $DOGE: Long (Oversold Rebound Play) Strategy: · Wait for the price to pull back and stabilize in the 0.0877-0.0880 range (near the 24-hour low) before entering a light long position. · The initial target is the 0.0900 whole number level; if effectively broken, then look to 0.0910. Set stop loss below 0.0870. Core rationale: 1. Oversold rebound demand: From the high of 0.09792, the price sharply dropped to 0.08771, a short-term decline of over 10%, with a large deviation rate. The bearish momentum has released quickly, creating a need for a technical corrective rebound. 2. Support level play: 0.08771, as the 24-hour low, is the last line of defense for short-term bulls. If buying support is found here, it is very likely to trigger a short-term oversold rebound. 3. Risk-reward consideration: Entering near the absolute low with a very tight stop loss (0.0870). If the market rebounds to the 0.0910 resistance, the risk-reward ratio is acceptable, suitable for short-term small position trading. $SOL $BTC #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% 🔥 It's 2 AM, and the market right now feels like a game where the players are already in position, but the referee hasn't blown the whistle yet. 🕰️ That "whistle" is the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes. If the wording remains hawkish, risk assets might first undergo a round of emotional release; if the market picks up clearer signals of easing from between the lines, funds could quickly flow back in. 📊 $BTC: Watch the macro to decide the big direction. ⚡ $ETH: Watch the funds to determine how much flexibility there is. 🔥 $DOGE: Watch the sentiment to decide if the market can go wild. These three coins actually correspond to three completely different trading logics. So there's no need to rush to prove you can predict the future right now. Wait for the minutes to be released, observe the market's first reaction, then the second reaction—this is often more important than betting in advance. Who do you think will be the first to ignite this time? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 September FOMC Minutes Released, Majority of Officials Lean Toward Another Rate Hike 1. Core Information from the Minutes 1. Most officials believe another rate hike is needed within the year; inflation remains high, with geopolitical oil prices and AI investments driving inflationary pressure. 2. At the same time, members recognize weakening employment, discussed risks of over-tightening, not all are hawkish, internal disagreements exist. 3. Market pricing now: December meeting is the most likely window for another rate hike, October meeting is very likely to hold steady. 4. Concurrent negative factors: Large BTC transfers from the U.S. government to Coinbase Prime, market worries about subsequent auction sell-offs, creating dual pressure. Macro Market Reaction U.S. Treasury yields rise, dollar strengthens, risk assets overall under pressure. 2. Analysis of Impact by Cryptocurrency 1. BTC Bitcoin Minutes are more hawkish than expected, substantially bearish. • Bearish logic: Higher rates maintained longer will suppress ETF inflows, rising U.S. Treasury yields will cause funds to flow out of risk assets. • But there is support: Spot ETFs have had continuous net inflows previously, which will buffer some downside, preventing unlimited dumping. 2. ETH Ethereum More resilient than BTC, likely to outperform Bitcoin in declines. ETH is more sensitive to liquidity changes, facing greater selling pressure in a macro bearish environment. 3. ZEC Zcash (small-cap privacy coin) No independent fundamentals, fully follows overall market sentiment. During market pullbacks, ZEC’s volatility will be amplified, falling deeper; rebounds will also be stronger, carrying the highest risk. 3. Short-term Price Movement Scenario Forecast Base scenario (highest probability): Oscillating downward with repeated spikes All three coins fell today. Although I was clearly bearish, I ended up opening a long position on ETH. I really deserve to lose money; I only wanted to catch a rebound wave. Today, I don't have a good outlook on BTC, ETH, or SOL; overall, I remain bearish. However, I just opened a long position on ETH mainly to catch a short-term rebound. I'm already losing money. $BTC: After losing the $85,000 level, it clearly weakened in the short term. Now I'm focusing on whether the $83,000 area can hold; if it breaks, it might continue to test $82,000. The $85,000 level has become significant resistance. I'm not in a hurry to bottom-fish. If the rebound lacks volume support, I will treat it as a weak market and prepare to short. $ETH: Among the three coins, I actually chose to go long on ETH. ETH's decline this round is greater than BTC's, so a short-term oversold rebound is possible. I'm mainly watching for support around $2,530–$2,550, with resistance first at $2,600, then $2,630–$2,650. However, this long position is just a short-term trade, not a judgment of trend reversal. If it continues to break down, I will promptly manage risk. $SOL: SOL's trend is also weak. $115 is the key level I'm watching today. If it doesn't hold, it may continue toward $110, with resistance near $120 above. I'm bearish on the overall trend; going long on ETH is just to seize a short-term opportunity. The two are not contradictory. Trading is not simply long or short; the key is to distinguish whether you are trading the trend or a rebound. $ZEC COOLS OFF AFTER A MASSIVE RUN ZEC is up 256.67% over 180D, yet the 4h chart shows sideways candles near 1,323 after rejection at 1,384.39. I'm watching how 1,278 holds. Strong trends still need pauses, and patience beats prediction. How do you stay disciplined during consolidation?SOL trades near 116.14 after pulling back from its peak of 124.96. It built strong support around 95.79 before that surge. If price holds above 115.00, SOL could retest 124.00 and push toward 135.00. Falling below 115.00 may send it down to test 104.00 support. Looking at past cycles, SOL saw huge ups and downs, soaring to an all-time peak near 260 in 2021 before a big crash. For the best prediction of all time, network adoption could push SOL past 300.00. Do you think SOL will break 125 soon? Brothers, don't hesitate, now is the best time to short $ETH! The current price has already dropped to 2580, I opened a short at 2617, with a floating profit of 4.24%, the gains are already in hand. Why so determined? Three major nuclear-level bearish factors are detonating simultaneously: First, ETF funds are fleeing massively. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive trading days, with a total withdrawal of about $408 million, and on October 6 alone, $202 million fled. Institutions are voting with their feet, with BlackRock leading the sell-off. Second, validators are lining up to sell. The Ethereum validator exit queue surged fivefold from 166,000 ETH at the end of September to 851,000 ETH within a week, and about 786,000 ETH are still queued waiting to be unlocked. These holders are waiting to sell and cash out, creating supply pressure overhead. Third, the long liquidation stampede is just beginning. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $554 million, with ETH contributing the most—long liquidations alone accounted for $166 million. ETH's decline is nearly twice that of BTC, showing clear weakness. Technically, the resistance at 2650-2660 is ironclad, and if it breaks below 2591, the next target is 2550. If ETH falls below 2565, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.238 billion, accelerating the stampede. If not short now, then when? $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Conclusion first: $MET surged 46% in one day, rising from 0.31 to 0.47, with a trading volume of 106 million USD — this is not just sentiment, but a revaluation after Solana DeFi's leading project launched a new product. On October 6, Meteora launched DLMM Pro, a fully customizable AMM, also opening configurable launch markets. Before launch, it hovered at 0.31 for a few days with little attention; the next day it started moving: at 18:00 UTC, the 4-hour candle had a volume of 60 million contracts, six times the previous candle, directly pushing the price above 0.44. This is the structure of new money entering the market. More interestingly, the funding rate was -0.0011%. Even after a big bullish candle, the rate remained negative, indicating the push came from spot buying, with shorts paying fees, not leveraged chasing. Open Interest was only 6.1 million USD, which is 17 times turnover compared to the 24h volume of 106 million USD — money comes in fast and leaves fast. Currently, the price is digesting between 0.44 and 0.46, with volume shrinking from 60 million to 10-18 million, which is healthy. If 0.44 holds, watch for the previous high at 0.47; if it breaks 0.44, expect a pullback to the 0.38-0.40 consolidation zone. Do you think it's better to chase now or wait for a pullback to 0.44? The market continues to weaken, and Big Brother Maji has taken action to clear out HYPE and PUMP. One has almost completely given back its profits, while the other’s losses keep increasing. Holding positions continuously consumes margin and disperses focus, so the decision was made to exit and reallocate funds back to the two major mainstreams, BTC and ETH. After rebalancing, the total position is 111 million: BTC increased by 13 coins to 188 coins, with a slight recovery in unrealized gains, and the liquidation price raised to 72,600, easing some risk; ETH reduced by 1,000 coins, leaving 37,000 coins, with unrealized losses expanding to 3.59 million, and a liquidation price of 2,502.35. The high funding fees remain the biggest hidden risk. After clearing altcoins, positions are concentrated, with BTC defending and ETH holding the line. The total capital scale has decreased, but ETH’s risk has not been released. My view: Cutting weak coins is a rational choice, preserving ammunition to play the mainstream. However, ETH’s funding fee pressure is high and the margin for forced liquidation is limited. If the market continues to dip, risks are easily triggered. In the short term, a high probability of oscillation and bottom searching is expected; a rebound does not equal a reversal. BTC has not stabilized yet, so don’t rush to bottom fish. $BTC $ETH 🔥At 2 o'clock, the more significant the data release, the easier it is to have the illusion that if you don't bet early, you'll miss out on a surge. Actually, it's quite the opposite. ⏳The Fed's September meeting minutes haven't been released yet; the current market is more about waiting for the information gap to be realized. Both bulls and bears know there might be volatility, but no one is sure which way the candlestick will ultimately go. 📉 $BTC is the macro sentiment thermometer; let's see how it responds first. 💰 $ETH is the capital elasticity amplifier; the stronger the easing expectations, theoretically the easier it is to amplify the market. 🎭 $DOGE is the sentiment amplifier; it goes wild when the market is excited and is most fragile when the sentiment recedes. So before the minutes, I'd rather earn less than expose my position just to guess the direction. Let the market make the first move, then decide which side to follow. Do you think this time it will first kill the longs or the shorts? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 👀 A whale bought $60,000 U worth of $PUMP at the bottom, but I didn't follow PUMP current price 0.0062 At 2 AM, the FOMC minutes were released, BTC hovered around 84,000, and the overall market is clearly retreating Everyone online is bullish because a whale with a valuation of 5.2 billion swept $62,000 U worth of PUMP at dawn But I took a look and didn't follow When the market is retreating, throwing in tens of thousands of U won't even make a splash 0.0066 tried twice but didn't break through, selling pressure is too heavy This kind of counter-trend resistance usually means it hasn't had its catch-up drop yet Sometimes whale entries are just cover for big funds retreating I'm currently out of position If the rebound can't get above 0.0065, I'll short one lot; if it stands above 0.0066, I'll admit defeat Don't act until the right level For those holding PUMP, what's your situation now? Just curious👇 $PUMP $BTC #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Dear teachers, today the overall market experienced a deep collective pullback, with $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC all weakening synchronously, showing a short-term bearish bias. The core logic behind this round of decline is very clear: after a sustained rally earlier, the market has completely priced in short-term positive factors, with no new incremental funds to take over, and a large amount of floating profit chips accumulated at high levels. Recently, whales have been continuously transferring and taking profits at high levels, the bulls' profit cushion is extremely thick, and even a slight rebound triggers concentrated selling pressure. BTC has fallen below the short-term moving averages, the resistance at the high level of 87200 repeatedly fails to break, the bullish momentum is completely exhausted, and technical pullback demand has erupted. ETH is weaker than BTC, the ecosystem heat continues to decline, altcoin funds are fleeing, highly elastic tokens are the first to come under pressure, all moving averages are turning down to suppress, and rebounds lack volume. ZEC is a typical case where good news turns into bad news upon realization; the ETF expectation was hyped and doubled in advance, but after the news was released, funds directly took profits, forming a sustained downward structure. Coupled with cooling external risk sentiment, a chain reaction of long liquidations on the market further amplifies the decline, and the short-term market has fully entered a repair and adjustment phase. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 方向揭晓： 昨日"弹簧"向下释放——10月7日以 262亿成交+Delta -58.9亿（数据窗口内历史最大单日卖盘）放量击穿85,000-85,200防线（此前三守告破），最低 82,733，收83,338。两周上升三角形宣告向下破位，双顶+三重顶确认，C浪正式展开。 10月5日"冲高86,991但Delta -19.4亿"的派发信号成为本轮下跌最准确的预警。 一、道氏理论（Dow Theory） 中期趋势正式反转向下： 道氏判定趋势反转需同时满足"高点降低+低点降低"——10月7日的破位一次性完成两项：高点 84,358（C-2反抽）< 86,691（10-6高），低点 82,733 < 85,102（四次抬升的防线）。至此，9月21日87,374以来的结构完整构成双顶（87,374/87,281）→颈线85,000放量击穿的经典顶部形态。道氏中期趋势：下降趋势确认。 量度与支撑： 双顶量度目标 = 颈线 - 双顶高度 = 85,000 - (87,374-85,000) = 82,626（10月7日单日已到位）；更大级别的三角量度目标 = 85,000 - (87,394-82,Attention, FOMO users are currently facing a very covert bookmark phishing attack that steals coins. According to SlowMist Cosine monitoring, attackers first lure users through phishing websites to complete a fake “human verification,” then ask users to drag a piece of malicious JavaScript code into their browser bookmarks and save it as a bookmark. This is where the real danger lies. Once users click this malicious bookmark 2 to 3 times as prompted, previously logged-in FOMO accounts may be directly hijacked by the attacker, and the crypto assets in the account may be immediately transferred away. This type of attack is more covert than the traditional “enter mnemonic phrase or private key” because users appear to just complete verification and save a bookmark, but in reality, they are actively executing malicious code. So if you recently see a webpage asking you to “drag code to bookmarks,” “run scripts,” or “copy code for verification,” just close the page and do not try it. Especially for users who have already logged into FOMO, it is recommended to immediately check your account login status, authorization, and asset changes. Do not click bookmarks from unknown sources, and do not execute any JavaScript code on unfamiliar webpages. From an asset security perspective, the biggest risk now is no longer just private key leakage; social engineering phishing + browser operations are also becoming new entry points for attackers to steal coins. Remember this: real human verification will never ask you to save a piece of unfamiliar code to your browser bookmarks to execute.🔥OKX conference makes a major announcement! The exchange is just the starting point, how do we keep up with this wave? Three major changes are long-term positives for $BTC: Liquidity expansion, complete opening of traditional capital channels, and improved market depth. As the core underlying asset of crypto, with infrastructure improvements, it will continue to drive its path toward mainstream asset allocation. 📊 Three core transformations: 🟢 Around-the-clock trading: The market says goodbye to closures, 7x24-hour trading becomes the norm. Reaction speed determines victory! 🟢 Accelerated asset on-chain process: The boundary between traditional finance and crypto assets is gradually dissolving. 🟢 AI directly involved in strategies: AI is no longer just watching the market, it directly executes quantitative strategies, sharply raising the competition threshold! The future is here! What the industry once imagined as the future has now directly become usable products. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $ETH Rebounded from the low of 2532 to above 2560. The mechanism is the same as the September non-farm payrolls: sell the expectation, buy the realization. Note: this is just a relief bounce (technical rebound), not a trend reversal. Part 2: Technical aspect — 2500-2600 range, 2600 is resistance $ETH #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ #黄金高位震荡，机构资金继续看涨 October 8 Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Trend Analysis ⚠️ For market analysis only, not constituting any trading advice. Contract and spot trading carry very high risks. Fundamentals Core contradiction: Hawkish Fed expectations suppress gold prices, central bank continuous gold purchases provide bottom support 1. The Fed meeting minutes released a hawkish signal; the market expects a significant rate hike probability in December. US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar is relatively strong, reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, which is the main reason for the recent gold price decline. 2. The People's Bank of China has increased gold holdings for 23 consecutive months, adding another 740,000 ounces in September, providing medium- to long-term bottom support for gold prices and limiting the downside. 3. Key data today: At 20:30 US initial jobless claims; stronger data will continue to pressure gold prices; weaker data will support a rebound. 4. Geopolitical risks persist, but short-term safe-haven demand for gold is weak. Technical Analysis (4-hour) Major structure: Oscillating downtrend, a technical rebound after a decline, not yet reversed - Intraday resistance First resistance: $4140~4145; strong resistance: $4165~4184, rebounds here are likely to face resistance and fall back; only a close above $4184 will end the short-term downtrend structure. - Intraday support First support: around $4100; strong support: $4066 (yesterday's low, two-month low), breaking below here will continue to test the $4040 level. Bull-Bear Judgment Short-term bearish bias, prioritize shorting on rebounds; do not chase shorts at lows - Long: Only consider light long positions after a pullback near $4060 stabilizes with a reversal candlestick; - Short: Prioritize shorts on rebounds to $4140-$4145 resistance; if it surges above $4165, that is a better shorting opportunity. $XAU Good morning, everyone. The National Day holiday is over. Let's continue talking about today's market. Yesterday, the market pulled back, and most altcoins also fell as well. Currently, the rebound is still insufficient; after the pullback, it will continue to move sideways. In the short term, I still view it as a consolidating adjustment. Today, the focus is on the area around 82,000–82,500 below. Whether this range can hold will determine whether the market can maintain its current range. If it falls, we need to guard against further acceleration of the decline, which requires special attention. ETF liquidity also needs to be monitored. Some funds have seen net outflows recently, but the full data is not yet available. We will continue to see if funds can flow back. Regarding the long-term overall direction, my personal bullish view remains unchanged. After the market and altcoins have pulled back simultaneously, I still prefer to buy on dips in batches and continue to position at my own pace. Regarding contracts, today I personally lean toward intraday short-term longs. After a pullback, I first bet on a rebound. After the market gives further signals, consider holding and switching to daily charts, or take profits, rather than treating short-term rebounds as market reversals. However, short-term bulls also depend on whether the support below holds. If 82,000–82,500 falls, the intraday short-term long strategy needs to be reassessed; don't hold on just because the long-term bullish outlook is insufficient. Specific levels: BTC should first focus on around 82,500, and look at the lower levels combined with 82,000. ETH's pullback is more obvious this time. If the market weakens again, watch for further pullbacks and first focus on around 2500. SOL should first focus on the 113 area. Contract notes$ZEC Dear teachers, the current price of ZEC is around 1324, shorting it immediately would be a disaster. First, let's look at the whale position data. There are a total of 414 whales in the market, with 249 long positions and only 165 short positions. The average opening cost for longs is 991.35, and they currently have a floating profit of over 60 million. Shorts have an average opening at 1208 and are currently in an overall loss. The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 577.99%, indicating that the long positions among large holders are very heavy. Here is a crucial point: most longs were established at very low levels, accumulating from around 900. After the recent continuous sharp drop from 1614, they still hold substantial profit cushions. As long as the market rises slightly, these profitable positions will have the impulse to cash out and exit, which is the biggest selling pressure from above. Although shorts are still losing money now, it does not mean the market will immediately pull back to save the shorts. Looking at the technical candlesticks, the daily chart shows a very clear descending channel with highs continuously moving lower. The MA5 has already turned down and is pressing near the current price, while MA10 and MA20 remain at higher levels. Yesterday, the price briefly found support around 1270, which is just a small pause in the downtrend. The moving average system has not yet turned upward, so there is no confirmation of a reversal. The positive news about the ETF application has already been priced in by the market, and after the announcement, it did not bring new buying volume.$ETH is stuck oscillating within the 2500-2600 range, with a clear selling pressure zone above 2600. The low point of 2532 after the minutes held steady, and the relief bounce high at 2562 turned into a short-term ceiling.Market weakened, yesterday's operation review: The first big bearish candle of BTC dropped, clearing all long positions. This was the long-awaited signal to short selected weak targets (BTC, Dogecoin) following the trend. Next plan: wait for a rebound, short again on the rebound.#US Treasury long-term yields hit new highs again, 30-year approaching 5.7% The leader has something to say US Treasury long-term yields have hit new highs again. The 30-year intraday reached 5.706%, the highest since 2002. The 10-year reached 5.349%. The ISM Services PMI Price Index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Inflation pressure hasn't eased, so long-term rates can't come down. The FOMC minutes show a unanimous vote to raise rates by 25 basis points, with the dot plot revised upward; most officials expect another hike before year-end, no rate cuts in advance. The economy and employment are resilient, inflation is sticky, and oil prices and geopolitics are still pushing. With this combination, the valuation ceiling for risk assets remains. BTC is unlikely to strengthen independently in the short term. My 86500 short position is still open. The logic hasn't changed: positive news is priced in, resistance is dense above, and funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87500, target 84500 to 85000. Time to reduce positions, keep the rest at breakeven. Control position size well, avoid heavy exposure. Don't rush to buy longs if long-term rates don't fall. Set stop losses properly, don't hold through losses. The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 7u challenge to 100 million! Day 48 Principal 7u, target 100 million Currently: 3900u Living cost: 2850u Available funds: 1000u+ During the National Day long holiday, I went back to my hometown and basically didn't check the market for a week, let alone scan the chain. I fished for a few days, then drank every day, drinking at noon and continuing at night. Spent 250u, basically didn't spend much money, food and drinks were all covered by my cousins. Made some extra money these past few months, so I can treat them to something nice during the New Year. 1. During the long term, Bitcoin has been in a volatile market. Currently, $BTC is supported at 82,500 and resistance is at 87,000. It’s fluctuating back and forth within this range; breaking out means a directional move. 2. $UNI and $ZEC, which surged recently, have both pulled back, but I prefer pumps. Let’s see if the basic data can recover later. 3. I don’t even know what people are playing with in meme coins now. A friend just told me about a coin that surged a long time ago, but I sold it long ago, crying in pain. Now the principal is only 1000 USD, need to expand the principal scale and continue my three ways to earn principal: writing content, doing contracts, and pumping meme coins! Bull market, we can win!50x short $DOGE, +334.76%. At the moment the numbers jumped, I felt very calm. The huge profits from contracts are just a mirage; securing profits is the reality. Deleted my watchlist, no longer watching the market. Only holding two long-term: BTC (faith) and OKB (potential). The logic of $OKB is very clear: it has the flexibility of altcoins and the foundation of an exchange. 21 million locked, X Layer deflation. 1.8 billion vs. 80 billion, no movement before fulfillment. Message: Greed, anger, ignorance, pride, doubt—all exist in the crypto world. Stay clear-headed, lock in BTC and OKB for the long term, and exit the casino. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Pudgy Penguins' Ethereum L2 network Abstract announced its shutdown, becoming the second L2 to fall within a week; following the news, $OP dropped 10% in one day, and $MNT and $ARB also fell about 7-10%. L2 shutdown wave! The second L2 down in a week Many people have the misconception that once a chain is on the mainnet, it is "permanently online," but L2 shutdowns are nothing new. This time it's Abstract by Pudgy Penguins, the second L2 to shut down within a week, and the related tokens OP, MNT, and ARB all plunged collectively on the same day, showing the market is voting with its feet: the trial-and-error cost of the L2 narrative is rising. For ordinary users, the shutdown itself is not scary; what’s scary is that assets remain on that chain. Remember three self-protection steps: first, check the official announcement for the shutdown schedule and note the deadline of the withdrawal grace period; second, before the deadline, use the official bridge to transfer assets back to the Ethereum mainnet—don’t try to save costs by using third-party cross-chain bridges; third, after the grace period, the official bridge may close, making asset retrieval very difficult, so don’t delay. Also, don’t panic sell related L2 tokens—the news often causes an initial oversell followed by a recovery. If you want to act, place conditional orders and set stop losses on spot markets; don’t chase the price. The L2 sector will continue to reshuffle; choose ecosystems with strong backing and solid endorsements, as those leaders have a higher chance of survival. $PENGU $BTC perpetual, 100x short, yield +350.32%. Strategy execution completed, mechanical take profit. Sentiment is the biggest enemy of trading. After giving up high-leverage speculation on the overall market, the base position allocation logic is extremely simplified: • $OKB: OKX ecosystem moat, 21 million total supply locked, supported by X Layer Gas deflation model. • $BTC: the only true belief. OKB's current $1.8 billion market cap compared to BNB's $80 billion shows a clear expectation gap. Warning: 100x leverage is a high-risk meat grinder. Short-term can go to zero, long-term relies on BTC and OKB. Preserve principal. $ZEC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $UNI Teachers, in this round, the UNI daily chart directly broke through the short-term moving averages MA5 and MA10, with a high of 9.319 and a pullback, currently at 7.91. On-chain whales: there are 216 long whales with an average entry at 7.0759; 161 short whales with an average short entry at 8.319. Nearly 90% of the short positions are profitable, indicating that the bears have already taken profits in this decline. All short-term moving averages are turning downward, showing a clear pressure pattern. On the daily level, a continuation of the pullback is expected for now. Offensive position: 7.72 Defensive position: 8.35Last night’s 20 minutes were brutal. Bitcoin dropped sharply from above 85,000 to 82,776, losing nearly two thousand dollars in less than twenty minutes. Nearly 700 million was wiped out across the entire market in 24 hours, affecting 120,000 people, almost all of whom were long. Currently around 83,200. The first support below is 80,800; if 81,000 breaks, there’s a high chance of another round of forced liquidations. This kind of low-volume, slow decline is the most exhausting; I’m holding off on bottom fishing for now. Let’s also look at those on the brink of liquidation. Over 38,000 ETH contracts, a $100 million position, opened at 2682, liquidation price at 2521. ETH is now at 2,570—less than 2% away from that line. Margin usage is at 98.3%, nothing can be withdrawn from the account, 20x leverage, with cumulative losses of $28.51 million, $4.78 million lost in just one day. Some say his win rate is 64%. But so what? The profits are small when winning, but he holds on stubbornly during losses until liquidation; winning ten times can’t cover one loss. More importantly, this market right now. The Glassnode analyst put it bluntly: spot exchanges and ETF volumes are abnormally low; right now it’s a battle of positions, not real money buying. In a market without incremental buying, the easiest way for whales to crash the price is to push it down sharply and clear out the leverage. $BTC $ETH $ARB Teachers, the ARB daily chart has formed a large bearish candlestick, directly breaking below the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages. The price is now around 0.1859. Looking at the whale data, there are a total of 149 long positions with an average entry at 0.2115, all currently at a floating loss, with only 19.46% of longs in profit; on the short side, there are 130 positions with an average entry at 0.1807. The short positions slightly outweigh the longs in volume, but some are also at a floating loss, indicating that longs and shorts are currently pulling against each other. Technically, the short term has entered a weak zone, with the moving averages above forming layered resistance, and the short-term trend is bearish. Offensive level: 0.1770 Defensive level: 0.1975Junze's Thursday Ethereum Analysis [Price Trend Analysis] 1. Candlestick Pattern: The 4-hour chart shows that recently, despite some lower shadows or small bullish candles on October 7th at 08:00 and 04:00, the rebound strength was limited and failed to effectively break through short-term resistance. 2. Technical Indicators: MACD: On the 4-hour chart, both DIF and DEA are running below the zero line, with DIF continuously crossing below DEA. The MACD histogram is negative and continues to expand, indicating the market is in a strong bearish trend. 3. Volume: On the 4-hour chart during October 7th at 08:00, a large volume accompanied the price drop, confirming the "sharp decline combined with increased volume" assessment. The National Day holiday is over, and starting today, Junze will continue to provide daily analysis with entry points! Currently, the depth of the pullback in this market is deeper than Junze expected. However, Junze believes that all current pullbacks are opportunities to enter. The overall bullish outlook remains unchanged, but as the pullback breaks through the consolidation box, market sentiment will definitely be somewhat subdued. The rise may not be as strong as before, and the market still needs to build some sentiment. In terms of operation, open long positions near 2550 on pullbacks, with take profits at 2585-2625-2685. Avoid heavy positions! As Junze mentioned in previous posts, there is a high probability of a box-shaped consolidation. Now that the upper boundary of the consolidation has been broken and the price has reached the lower boundary, wait for direction—either a return to the box or a break below 2500, which will roughly confirm the direction! $ETH $BTC $PUMP Teachers, the current price of PUMP is around 0.00622. The daily chart has started to show signs of stagnation, with the price oscillating and pausing near the previous high. According to whale data, there are a total of 194 long positions, with an average entry price of 0.00511; more than half of these positions are already in profit. On the short side, there are 118 positions, currently overall at a loss. The volume of long positions is significantly larger, but there is selling pressure above in the short term. The MA5 is slightly pressing above the current price, indicating a short-term pullback bias. Attack level: 0.00574 Defense level: 0.00685Multicoin连续向Coinbase Prime转HYPE，短线压力开始值得重视。 据TradingBeats监测，Multicoin约4小时前再次向Coinbase Prime转入6.75万枚HYPE。更值得注意的是，过去4周Multicoin累计转入超过76万枚HYPE，价值约6299万美元。 这个量已经不算小了，市场自然会开始担心一个问题：这些HYPE最终会不会进入现货市场？ 但这里需要区分清楚：转入Coinbase Prime不等于已经卖出，也可能是托管、资金管理或其他机构操作。真正的利空确认，要看后续是否出现持续卖盘以及链上转账是否继续增加。 从交易角度，我现在不会因为一笔转账直接追空HYPE，而是看“资金流+价格”能不能形成共振。 如果Multicoin继续向交易平台转入HYPE，同时HYPE放量跌破短线支撑，说明潜在供应正在转化成真实抛压，短线需要降低仓位。 如果持续转入但价格始终跌不动，甚至出现放量上涨，那反而说明市场承接能力很强，机构筹码可能正在被资金消化。 所以这次真正的交易信号不是76万枚HYPE已经转了多少，而是后面还有没有继续转，以及转完之后价格怎么走。 Brothers, brothers, there isn't much data now, so jump in for a quick gain, or you'll be letting yourself down! Hurry up and go big, but remember it has to be short-term. $MET current price is 0.4601, up 38.83% in 24 hours. I opened a long at 0.4583, now the mark price is 0.4601, floating profit +0.39U, return +1.17%. The gain isn't big, but the direction is right. Why must you go long with this data now? First, the funding rate has collapsed. The funding rate has dropped directly to around -0.72%! Shorts are paying longs every second they hold their positions; the fuel for short squeeze has reached its limit. Second, shorts are extremely crowded. The contract long-short account ratio shows shorts account for 67.69%, longs only 32.31%, long-short ratio 0.48. Retail traders are frantically shorting, thinking it should pull back after such a rise. But would the big players be so kind to let shorts profit? Third, the market structure is biased to the long side. 24-hour increase of 38.83%, price stands firmly above the moving average, volume supports it, the short-term trend is still in the hands of the bulls. Trading idea: Enter a light long position near the current price, set stop loss below 0.42, first target at 0.52, if broken then 0.58. But remember, it must be short-term, quick in and out, take a bite and run, don't get attached to the fight. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 This market is really full of love, with ups and downs. When it rises, everyone sells in batches; when it falls, everyone buys in batches! First, to make a statement: this decline is just a healthy correction of wave A in the early stage of the bull market, a healthy shakeout of the bulls! If this correction negatively affects your mindset or life, then you must be speculating! For coins above 8.5, with gains more than doubled, we have taken out our principal and even part of the profits, leaving less than 30% of the profits as a base position! Just waiting for the price to drop, then reinvest the profits! So when to enter altcoins after this drop? For those currently with empty positions (the first position can be a bit aggressive), you can start counting from the first bearish weekly candle of the correction, and after at least 4 weekly candles, wait for another bearish weekly candle; or after breaking below 80,000, a bottom pattern forms with multiple daily bullish divergences! For those like us who still hold chips, we can be much more calm! Divide the layout into two parts below 80,000 and 76,000 for mainstream coins! Whether you are a cycle player or a short-term speculator, you must use idle Q; otherwise, the bull market that should earn Q will end up losing Q. My understanding of idle Q is not the Q you don't use today/this week/this month, but the idle Q that you don't need to use for at least one cycle of 3-4 years! It must be the surplus idle Q after planning and arranging your family life for the next 3-4 years! I will share later the target tiers for wave B layout after wave A correction ends. Wishing everyone to ride the bull market wind and get rich, and have a seaside villa together$SOL This SOL115 still can't be broken, as I said yesterday, only breaking 115 can continue to go down Let's see if it can effectively break through today. Now 115 is the last defense point for the bulls, and the current trend is a low-level range oscillation It should still drop another wave. If it breaks through, the downtrend will continue. Below you can see 110-108 $BTC Bitcoin is also at the last weekly defense point. The market is precarious now, and the 82500-83000 level is still holding strong Currently in a low-level consolidation, with short pressure at 83500-84000. The bears are very strong, giving no chance for a rebound Without sufficient funds and news driving it, it is still very difficult to break through. If it breaks here, it will be a volume sell-off Still consolidating and preparing to sell off. If it breaks 82500, there will be no short-term defense below, and it is very likely to directly enter the 80K defense battleReceipt pagination does not make transactions faster, but it prevents node synchronization from being overwhelmed by large packets After the block capacity increases, the transaction receipt list will also grow. Receipts record execution status, Gas usage, logs, and other information. If nodes must transmit the entire list at once during synchronization, extreme blocks may generate excessively large network responses, causing memory pressure, timeouts, or even synchronization failures. Some receipt list schemes in eth/70 allow nodes to request segments, breaking a large packet into multiple manageable smaller packets. Pagination does not change the transaction execution results, nor does it make already confirmed transactions finalize faster. It optimizes how nodes transfer result data, similar to supporting chunked resumable downloads for large files. Implementation still needs to prevent duplication, missing pages, and order errors, and ensure that the concatenated receipt root matches the block commitment; otherwise, "easier to transmit" might become "easier to lose." This network layer change is unlikely to become a $ETH market narrative, but it directly relates to operability after scaling. If the Gas limit increase only considers execution speed without addressing the worst-case sizes of receipts, logs, and synchronization messages, nodes will crash along another path. Allowing data to be safely paginated is about realizing capacity growth in real software, not just increasing numbers in parameter tables.现在不是追涨阶段，更像拉升后的博弈窗口，谁在裸泳要看资金费率说话。 BTC 卡在 85K 到 87K 之间，你猜多头还剩多少耐心？ 我盯着 $BTC $JUP $PUMP 看了一整晚，最大的感受是：价格没怎么动，但衍生品那边已经开始躁了。先聊 BTC，85K 是这波多头结构的底线，只要不丢，回踩都算洗筹；真正有意思的是 87K，一旦带量突破，89K 到 90K 会被快速测试。但注意，永续持仓已经堆得比较满，资金费率如果继续偏正，突破前很可能先来一次向下插针，把高杠杆多头清掉再走。所以这里的偏多逻辑是结构没坏，风险则是挤压方向随时可能反着来。 $JUP 在 0.20 上方勉强撑着复苏形态，0.23 是短线分水岭，过了才看 0.25 以上。它的弱点是成交量没跟上，山寨的情绪溢价在退，如果 BTC 横太久，JUP 这种中市值更容易被抽走注意力。反过来，只要 BTC 稳住，JUP 的弹性其实比大饼好，适合等确认而不是抢跑。 $PUMP 这边，动能就是全部。没有量的突破都是假的，有量的突破才可能开下一段。但 meme 类衍生品的脆弱点在于，一旦资金费率飙太快，多头拥挤度上去，回撤也会很暴力。 现9-year veteran whale liquidates ETH, pocketing $24.21 million, 2570 level holds strong, I'm still bullish   $ETH currently at 2583.53, down 3.9% in 24h, this morning it briefly dropped to a low of 2537 USD but was quickly bought back. At this level, I'm directly bullish — an oversold rebound during a high-level pullback phase, better to take profits early.   With US-Iran tensions escalating, oil prices and US Treasury yields rising in tandem, ETH pulled back from 2537 to around 2699; Abstract and Blast, two L2s, shut down simultaneously, BitMine chairman Tom Lee bluntly said institutional holdings are near their limit, removing buying expectations. The 9-year veteran whale pinosaur.eth took advantage of the chaos to liquidate, profiting $24.21 million, 65x — these chips have been handed over, yet the price stubbornly did not break down.   First, a 24h -3.9% volume-driven sell-off, with 2570 support firmly held; second, daily RSI at 45.4 neutral, funding rate -2.227e-05 near zero, leverage not overheated, mainly spot positions. The long-short account ratio is 3.363, longs are a bit crowded, stop-loss is a must.   Resistance above: 2690   Support below: 2570   Don't chase highs during a high-level pullback, 2570 holding is a low-buy window, if it breaks below the previous low of 2537, I'll admit I'm wrong and turn bearish.   Entry at current price 2583.53, if it breaks 2570 I'll cut losses and exit, if it holds, aiming for 2690. Watching the market, follow me for the next signal.   $ETH $BTC$CT perpetual contract 20x short position: opened at 0.4823, now 0.3692, +469.00%. Basis: large sell orders pressure + volume gap, bearish momentum confirmed. Stop loss at 0.52, not triggered. Execution: take profit on 50% position, move stop loss on remaining position up to 0.40. Volume breakout at 0.35, hold short until 0.3, low volume bottoming to clear position. Refuse emotional averaging down, close the trade cleanly and decisively. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Yesterday afternoon I said: I won't open a single long position on ETH this week. Woke up to see the answer. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 ETH ground down from 2616 yesterday afternoon to a low of 2536 at 1 AM, dropping an hour before the minutes were released as a sign of respect, now at 2581. What’s even more painful is the ETF: On October 6, ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $202 million, all sold by BlackRock’s ETHA alone, marking the sixth consecutive day of outflows and the largest single-day outflow since September 16. On the same day, BTC spot ETFs actually had a net inflow of $119 million. The money hasn’t left the space; it’s moving from ETH to BTC. ETH/BTC was 0.0316 three days ago, now 0.0310. So I won’t change my stance: if 2600 doesn’t hold, I won’t open any ETH longs; if I’m going to enter, I’ll start with BTC first. $ETH To the brothers still holding ETH longs, here’s one more chance: give me a reason to convince me, and I’ll publicly take back this statement. $ETH perpetual contract 100x short position, opened at 2713.14, now at 2577.59, floating profit +499.60%. 2713.14 is like a kite with a broken string, after the bulls pulled it up, they let go directly. I followed the trend down, fully leveraged 100x to ride this free fall. First, pocket half the profit, and set the remaining to breakeven at 2650. If 2500 can still be broken through by momentum, hold on a bit longer; once the drop slows and buying picks up, close the position and get out immediately. $BTC $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Yesterday afternoon I asked here: The minutes come out at 02:00, are you staying up late to watch, or placing orders and going straight to sleep? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Answer: Those who slept won. At 02:00, BTC's highest was 83,490 and lowest 83,159, fluctuating 330 dollars within an hour, with trading volume just over 10 million U, the quietest candle last night. The real drop was before the minutes, at 21:00 the price suddenly dropped to 82,753, with 62 million U traded, the largest volume last night. The minutes themselves said: Most officials think another rate hike before the end of the year might be appropriate. But the market's pricing for a rate hike in October has dropped from about 70% right after the September meeting to around 20%. In other words, October will most likely pause first, keeping the December option in hand. The next real window is the CPI on 10/14. My plan remains unchanged: 82.7k was the low given last night, I won't chase shorts before it breaks; only if it stands back above 84.6k will I believe this cut is over. $BTC A practical question: The minutes didn't cause a drop, do you think it's A) the bad news is fully priced in and a rebound is due, or B) the drop is still coming, waiting for CPI? Comment below, I'll reply one by one.💥💥💥 The overall market trend $BTC, altcoins fell across the board. US stocks retreated from historical highs. 💥💥💥💥 Market Highlights: 1. The $MET of the Sol ecosystem DEX rose about 38% against the trend. Meteora launched DLMM Pro, with protocol DEX trading volume rising to $187 million, active addresses hitting a weekly high; MET funding rate was about -0.073%, with clear short squeezing during the rise. 2. The metaverse concept $SAND rose about 13%, continuing the speculation following the Korea Exchange lifting its risk warning. SAND's funding rate was about -0.035%, with bears still under pressure, but MANA only saw a slight increase, with limited sector linkage. 3. SOL chain DEX token RAY rose about 10%, JUP rose about 3.5%. With SOL itself down about 3.6%, funds have shifted against the trend to low-market cap DEX tokens, showing clear short-term speculative characteristics. 4. The L2 sector led the decline, with OP down about 6% and ARB down about 6%. Abstract became the second Ethereum L2 to pause in the week, further damaging sector sentiment. 5. A US government address transferred about $670 million in crypto assets within the past 32 hours. Involving approximately 6,215.7 BTC, 119 million USDT, and 40,285 BNB, monitoring indicates BTC and USDT transfers to Coinbase Prime; On-chain transfers do not equate to official confirmation of sale 6. BeautyTry the long position on $OFC again Bought 500 contracts, come on, give me another crash I already lost over 2000u here before This time I bought less, afraid of a run The project team joked that if you run, don't turn it into a real run haha I'll first build a base position. I also opened a base short position on $MET 220 contracts, don't dare to go long anymore Feels like the market maker still wants to pump some funding fees The long-short ratio is only around 0.4 now Actually not suitable to open shorts now It's okay, I opened very few, planning to add positions later $CAP actually recovered yesterday after the drop But I didn't sell, break-even just means no loss No profit, I don't want to leave When it rose to 0.1, I also didn't add short positions Afraid of being squeezed out, with the current position I won't add or reduce positions, just hold like this Hold until unlocking starts, hold until profit is madeThere is an important support level below ETH Ethereum for going long! Technical aspect: 2493 falls within a multi-support resonance zone 2493 is close to the 2500 round number level, and below it is the daily support band from 2,535 to 2,580. This range converges the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, the 50-day simple moving average, and the 200-week simple moving average. Ethereum's current price has fallen back near the 50-day moving average. Analyst Merlijn The Trader clearly points out that as long as the 2500 to 2560 area holds, ETH still has a chance to rise toward $3000. The stochastic indicator has dropped into a deep oversold region, with %K at 13.80 and %D at 11.04, and the price is almost touching the lower Bollinger Band. Oversold conditions are usually followed by a technical rebound correction. Trading strategy Light long positions near 2493, with stop loss placed below 2430, which is the daily 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level breach point. The first target is 2680 to 2700, a resistance zone where EMA12 and pivot points resonate. After breaking through, look toward the 2760 to 2780 area around the 100-week moving average. Position size should be controlled between 10% and 15%, with leverage not exceeding 3x. At the 2493 level, oversold signals, support resonance, and short liquidation potential overlap, making the risk-reward ratio favorable. But do not go heavy; wait for a clear stabilization signal at the support level before adding positions. $ETH
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