Orbit Post Sitemap
#ETH
Review of yesterday's forecast: minimum dip to 2591, current price 2613 indicated the decline is not over, there is an oversold rebound possibility in the evening, support below is seen at 2565, 4-hour cycle will continue to oscillate repeatedly, no one-time bottoming
Market fulfilled✅
Last night hit a new low again at 2538, current price returned near 2566
Short-term resistance range 2600-2631, rebound faces pressure here, continue to short following the trend.
Long-term cycle logic: 3-day MACD needs a high-level pullback to zero line, the downtrend is not finished yet
Key long-term support range 2300-2431, if price reaches this range, it is an opportunity to gradually build long positions Brothers and sisters, I’m a PhD. A question I often see is: Can crypto consistently make money? The reality is that there’s no guaranteed formula for profits. The biggest mistake is expecting to get rich overnight. A more sustainable approach is to manage expectations, understand your risk, and build a strategy that matches your financial situation. For larger portfolios, the focus should generally be on disciplined accumulation of established assets like BTC, rather than constantly chasing shorBTC is back near 83,000, and ETH has also dropped badly. The market finally stopped pretending and made a big move.
A few days ago, every rise was said to mean the bull market was still ahead, but now with two down K-lines, it suddenly went quiet as if the internet was cut off. The market is playing people like dogs, dropping a month's gains in 3 days.
Honestly, at this level, I don't think it's the end of the world for BTC, but there's really no need to rush in and catch the falling knife.
The market's best trick is to give you a little hope, then conveniently sweep your stop losses. Can ETH reach 3000 this year? Can we still have a good year?
I'm not guessing the bottom anymore.
Last time I guessed the bottom, I only got halfway up the mountain. #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC $ETH 4 hours: The declining wave C of 4696 has entered the final stage. Focus on the extension structure of C-5 to determine whether it is a three-wave or five-wave pattern. The first rebound target is 4280.
1 hour: The 5th wave decline at 4226 follows an extended structure. Pay attention to the rebound structure and time cycle at 4066. Watch 4184 above and 4066 below. If it follows a five-wave structure with a new low, the target range is 4040-30.
30 minutes: Breaking above 4184 indicates a three-wave structure, with 4066 as a temporary bottom. Breaking below 4066 indicates a five-wave structure, with the 4040-30 range continuing upward to look for a rebound at 4280.$XAU The market is crashing, and this giant whale is swapping BTC for USDC
In the past 9 hours, an ancient whale sold 3,000 BTC through HyperLiquid, exchanging them for 363.9 million USDC.
He still holds 46,765 BTC, valued at 5.73 billion. This sale is just a small portion.
But the action itself is worth noting. He had been swapping BTC for ETH before, now he has switched to swapping BTC for USDC. ETH is a risk asset, USDC is a safe-haven asset. This shift from ETH to USDC indicates a change in his short-term market outlook.
Today BTC fell below 83,000, with 709 million liquidated in 24 hours, 647 million from long positions, and 122,000 traders wiped out. Retail investors are being liquidated, while he is converting coins into stablecoins.
It's not panic, it's risk aversion. It's not liquidation, it's adjustment.
He still holds 46,000 BTC; whether he will sell more next is unknown. But a person holding 5.7 billion worth of BTC starting to swap for USDC at least shows he thinks the current market needs some cash on hand.
Do you think he's swapping for USDC to hedge risk or preparing to bottom-fish elsewhere? Discuss in the comments.
The above is based on on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $NEAR is up 8.2% with open positions expanding, while $BTC and $ETH remain stuck in weaker zones. Current prices: • $BTC: ~$83,009 • $ETH: ~$2,572 • $NEAR: ~$5.364 NEAR is clearly outperforming, while BTC and ETH are down around 1.2% and 1.4%. For BTC, price remains below the 1H EMA20 at $83,465, while positions have increased 1.7%. Price is falling as leverage rises, suggesting fresh longs are still facing pressure. The key intraday low is $82,650; a break below could open the door toward $82,0【On-Chain Trading Update｜HYPE】
Monitored address 0x9d95 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $86.68
▪ Transaction amount this time: $31,699.42
▪ Leverage: 7x
Do you think opening a long at this position is too early?It's the same with Ethereum, but due to weakening spot inflows, yesterday's decline was almost twice that of Bitcoin! Because of different capital preferences, the support strength is obviously weaker. Facing the same macro instability, it has resulted in a different situation.
Or it can be simply understood as leverage clearing; after Bitcoin stops stacking, Ethereum has the chance to show a stronger rebound.
It should be noted that Ethereum is still weaker compared to Bitcoin currently, so there's no need to enter the market simultaneously at the recent low point.The mechanism is not a bottom line; implementation is the clue.
The key to $INJ's buyback and burn is not the word "burn" itself, but whether the ecosystem revenue can continuously exchange for tokens. Revenue growth drives participation, and supply contraction carries more weight; however, a roughly 7.9% drop in 24 hours indicates that even with a supply mechanism, the market downturn must be faced. First, look at actual burns and price support; don't mistake long-term logic for short-term price defense.
$ARB dropped about 8.6% in a week and only rose about 7.8% in a month, showing a clear slowdown in momentum. Recovery takes time. If rebounds are always short and declines persist, it means buying interest has not yet recovered. Discussion volume cannot replace price response; continuing to wait requires new evidence.
$ZEC's NU7 reduces the target block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, but the daily issuance remains unchanged, so it cannot be understood as a reduction in new supply. The focus is on how much the user experience improves, as well as test results, mainnet deployment, and wallet and exchange platform adaptation. The Winklevoss-backed institution's application for a ZEC spot ETF can be a clue for expectations, but don't prematurely assume the plan's effects.
Burns, upgrades, and ETFs are all observation points, not guarantees. Wait for actual progress and price support to provide answers.$ETH is about to face a trial tonight, the first heavenly thunder is coming soon. Not sure how many strikes it can withstand; if it holds, it will ascend to immortality, if not, it will be ruined.
$BTC's correction isn't over yet; this time it's expected to drop below 80,000. The ambush orders are ready (if they don't get blasted).
$BCH was mentioned in previous articles that its bottom is around 280. Unfortunately, people can't have spare money; if they do, they show off and make reckless moves. Soon, you can pick up some cheap chips, but the U is all gone.
If this trial is passed successfully, it's better to do something easy, like raising chickens and collecting eggs.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049
Too lazy to take a new screenshot, so I'll use the last one. Last time was a small resistance order, this time a big resistance order. Have the smart kids figured out what's going on? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
US stock pre-market: Oil prices surge, index futures plunge, what are funds scheming before today's open?
Brothers, the pre-market situation today feels off.
First, look at the most eye-catching data: WTI crude oil up over 5%, Brent directly above 104. VIX fear index soared to 16.01, up more than 6 points. The three major stock index futures collectively turned negative, Dow futures once down over 400 points.
What are funds afraid of?
The oil price surge is not purely demand-driven. On one hand, the US and Iran are stirring trouble again, Trump said "no rush to sign an agreement"; on the other hand, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico directly shut down 25% of crude oil production capacity. When supply shrinks, inflation expectations immediately rise.
Then look at US Treasury yields still pushing higher, 10-year at 5.296%, 30-year at 5.62%. The Fed's September minutes are hawkish, most officials believe another rate hike is needed before year-end.
To translate: Oil price rise → Inflation expectations rise → Rate hike expectations strengthen → Interest rates up → Valuation cut.
So semiconductors fell first in pre-market, Micron down 1.52%, Hynix down 0.59%. Storage just recovered a bit yesterday, today macro factors pushed it back down.
Where is the money flowing?
Healthcare is one of the few bright spots today. Moderna is still rising pre-market, the passive buying from Nasdaq 100 inclusion hasn't finished yet. Defensive attributes plus strong catalysts, short-term funds are clustering. ETF inflows continue, so why is BTC falling?
This is where the market has been most prone to misjudgment recently.
Many people see continuous net inflows into ETFs and assume BTC should rise.
But ETF capital inflow ≠ guaranteed price increase.
Price is determined by marginal buy and sell orders, not a single funding channel.
In September, the US spot BTC ETF had net inflows of about $2.65 billion, indicating institutional demand still exists; however, the ETF inflow rate has clearly slowed recently, and there is noticeable selling pressure around $85,000–$85,500.
So the current issue for BTC is not "whether there is capital," but:
Can new buy orders continue to expand and absorb the supply above?
If ETFs keep flowing in but the price consistently fails to break resistance zones, it actually indicates ongoing profit-taking above.
The most dangerous aspect of this kind of market is that fundamentals appear strong, yet the price stubbornly refuses to break through.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC #跟着OKX打卡2049 $ZEC $ETH Ethereum has retraced more than 7% from the high of 2738 within four trading days, making it the steepest decline among major cryptocurrencies. 2538 is the current key support; if it breaks, the next level to watch is the 2500 round number. On the upside, ETH needs to first reclaim 2600 before discussing a recovery to 2650. Today, there is a fundamental change in ETH that must be acknowledged: Bitmine, under Tom Lee, announced it will stop purchasing ETH tokens. This institution was previously one of the most stable incremental buyers of ETH in the market. Its exit means the demand side loses a continuous buying force. Combined with the earlier surge of 392% in the validator exit queue, ETH is under pressure on both supply and demand fronts. Contract data is also unfavorable: long positions account for 76.7%, the highest among all, and ETH tops today's liquidation list. Bottom-fishing ETH requires more solid reasons than bottom-fishing BTC, and currently, such reasons are not visible.BTC script idea, from the naked K perspective, yesterday's daily K-line closed with a large bearish candle; and the large bearish candle was on high volume, having pierced the lower boundary line of the consolidation area.
This is the classic key point theory, where the price, after sufficient brewing, chooses a directional turning point, forming a new trend.
The red line is the top-bottom reversal level; when the price reaches this area, it will consolidate or slightly rebound, equivalent to a downtrend continuation; then it will further probe the green line stage.
All of the above conclusions are drawn from the naked K combined with volume-price relationship reactions; the analysis only represents personal views, there is no holy grail in this market, only increasing probabilities, and this article does not provide any investment advice.The Federal Reserve is very likely not to raise interest rates in October, but the cost of borrowing is still rising.
Last night, there was a rare divergence in U.S. Treasury bonds:
① 2-year at 4.77%, down 2 basis points. The market is betting on "no rate hike," with CME's probability of no hike in October at 80.6%.
② 30-year at 5.67%, up 3 basis points. The 10-year intraday touched 5.364%, the highest since 2002.
③ The transmission has already landed: U.S. 30-year mortgage rates rose from 7.30% to 7.49% in one week.
Mortgage applications dropped 4.2%, and August consumer credit growth slowed from 4.1% to 1.9%.
Short-term bets are on "no rate hike," but long-term prices are rising. This is not an increase in rate hike expectations; it's that long-term capital demands higher returns.
$BTC is currently 82,638, down 1.21% in 24h; $ZEC at 1,212, down 7.38%.
Liquidation pressure is cooling: 353 million in 24 hours, 41.92% less than the same time yesterday.
But long positions still account for 85.6%, with 89,805 people liquidated. The largest single liquidation was on Binance, a $BTC single order of 11.82 million.
This week, I’m only watching one number: when the 30-year yield stops rising.
If it doesn’t turn back, the valuation of risk assets will continue to be suppressed.
With long-term rates continuing to rise, or your own leverage not yet cleared—which are you more afraid of now?
$BTC $ETH #USTreasury #Macro
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.BTC: Holding above $82,500 with increased volume + ETF net inflows for 2-3 consecutive days, light long positions can be tried, stop loss below $82,000, target $83,800-$84,500. If the daily close breaks below $82,500, do not catch the falling knife; wait for $80,000-$81,000 to assess support strength.
ETH: Current odds are not as good as BTC. ETF systematic withdrawal, $2,511 is the short target, with $1.35 billion long liquidations concentrated below. The value of ETH lies in oversold rebounds, which is short-term speculation, not a portfolio logic. Try light long positions at $2,540-$2,550, stop loss at $2,530, first take profit at $2,590, second take profit at $2,620. #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ 【Exchange｜OKX Launches Pre-IPO OURA USD X-Perp】
OKX announced on October 7: launching OURAUSD UM (X-Perp), based on the unlisted Oura, USD-settled expiry contracts, holding no equity, only trading valuation fluctuations; pricing ≈ share price × total shares outstanding (about 321 million shares), gradually converting to standard stock X-Perp after IPO. Risks: IPO timing uncertain, price may deviate from listing price, platform can settle autonomously.
Current price about $48.95 (Beijing 18:40, OKX); OKB about 126.8 USDT; BTC about $82,632 (Coinbase). See attached chart for trend.
My view: This is OKX turning Pre-IPO valuation trading into a product line, following the same path as tokenized US stocks and ICE joint ventures. Thin liquidity, high volatility, not to be treated as actual stock; first confirm if the region is open.
This does not constitute investment advice. Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $ETH corresponds to a very small scale. The buy near sell far quote spread is +0.57%, with the first-level pair scale about $993; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 10%.
The $SOL mark spread is positive, but the first-level buy near sell far quote is already inverted. The mark near-far spread is +0.43%, while the first-level buy near sell far quote spread is -0.81%.On Thursday, what should be done after the weak downward continuation?
The key support at 82500 mentioned earlier has been broken. The nearly 4000-point drop in this round has not seen significant recovery. The short-term support level has been broken, overall volume is weak, and the short-term trend has shifted from bullish to bearish. There was no strong rebound today. There is no good entry point for short positions. If the US stock market opens with a certain rebound strength, short positions can be entered!
Operation suggestion: short near 83800, watch 82500 and 81500. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC Not afraid of sharp rises or falls, just afraid of slow declines and slow rises, endlessly. BTC has been stuck between 82163 and 83300 all day. Will it rise or fall? Can we get a clear answer? Personally, I'm bullish; this correction is basically in place. Even if 82163 is the low point, it won't rally immediately. Most likely, it will move sideways for a while before rallying.
There are no obvious negative factors outside, and 82000 is a major daily support, so it's not easy to break. Even if it can't reach 87300, it should at least rebound once. If it keeps falling without even a rebound, bulls won't get on board, so who will the bears play with? $ETH $SOL $BTC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ Day 178 of live trading, crude oil $CL surged. I predicted yesterday that crude oil still has another wave of increase; this is just the beginning. As long as it holds tonight, crude oil is expected to rise significantly.
I am a major short seller of crude oil, with large funds holding long-term short positions, but I know there will be another wave of increase, so I opened long positions in advance for hedging.
This position has been held for many days, and today I see results. I will add to the position again when the timing is right. The short-term rise in crude oil is the main trend. When it reaches the peak, I can add short positions.
$BZ $USO
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 BTC's drop this time may not be because no one is buying, but because "money is too expensive."
Recently, global long-term bond yields have collectively surged, with the US 10-year Treasury yield once approaching 5.36%, and the 30-year near 5.7%; the UK's 30-year yield also broke through 6%, clearly raising the cost of long-term capital.
Behind this are two factors: rising oil prices + warming inflation expectations.
Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100, and the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes also show that most officials consider another rate hike this year appropriate. The market has repriced rate cut expectations, with the dollar and long-term yields strengthening together, naturally putting pressure on risk assets.
BTC couldn't hold up either, repeatedly hitting resistance near $87,000 and falling back to around $83,000. On October 7, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $485 million, and the funding side has clearly weakened in the short term.
So the current issue is not "whether BTC has a story," but that global capital costs are becoming more expensive.
In the short term, watch for support at $83,000; only a rebound above $85,000 will ease the pressure.
If long-term bond yields don't cool down, it will still be difficult for BTC to break out into a one-sided rally. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 #霍尔木兹风险升级，短期能源供应仍有缓冲 $BTC $ETH Never, ever try to catch the bottom
Don't think Bitcoin should rise just because it dropped 5000 points
This is absolutely a wrong perception and behavior
Also, I’m giving you 30 million
When it drops, go long
When it rises, go short — how many times has this logic caused your liquidation, can you still remember?
This time, the downward trend corresponds to the US government transferring out Bitcoin + BNB + USDT totaling over 770 million USD, causing selling pressure
At the same time, yesterday Bitcoin ETF spot net outflow was 484.9 million USD
Ethereum ETF spot net outflow was 160.9 million USD
Originally, before selling, this was just a transfer
Why does the market react even without selling?
It's simple,
Retail investors rush to stop loss and flee early, afraid to be caught in the selling pressure
Institutions directly withdraw, actively reducing positions to avoid risk
Contract longs concentrate on liquidation, causing a stampede that amplifies the drop
So the coins haven't been sold yet, but the price has already dropped first
All to avoid risk
The market is currently just digesting the selling expectations
Our 86,000 short position still holds 70% of the base position, target remains 79,500-79,000, stop loss moved to 85,500 USD unchanged, worst case is profitable stop loss exit
Completely control long positions, do not touch above 80,000 on the left side $ADA
After the ADA pullback, it is recovering the mid-range. How much of the rebound needs to be retained to be meaningful?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 0.2486—0.2658 USDT, change -3.05%, trading volume about 10.94 million USDT.
The quote has recovered about half of the range above the low point, indicating that buyers have somewhat recovered, but net gains are still negative. The sustainability of the recovery depends on the next retest; a reversal cannot be confirmed based on just one upward move.
If the midpoint is quickly lost and the low is broken again, the rebound is interpreted as a weakening; if the retest holds and gradually moves into the upper half of the range, the stability assessment is improved.The official $TRUMP rules clearly state that eligibility for the banquet depends on the time-weighted holdings from October 5 to November 12, with the top 185 qualifying for the banquet and the top 29 also receiving VIP reception. In other words, this mechanism itself may create phased holding demand for $TRUMP.
But there is a very important risk here:
This does not necessarily mean there will be a price surge on November 22.
Past market performance for similar events has been unstable, and currently, the trading enthusiasm for $TRUMP is clearly lower than when it was first issued in 2025. Recent reports also indicate that the project team continues to maintain holder engagement through the banquet, F1, and a new round of events.
If you are planning to trade $TRUMP in waves,
I would instead focus on the November 12 node.
Because:
October 5 → November 12:
To compete for banquet eligibility → phased buying may occur.
November 12:
Rankings are finalized → some funds may start taking profits.
November 12 → November 22:
Market hype around the "Trump Banquet" story → may trigger another event-driven rally.
After November 22:
If there are no new major positive developments, there is a typical "Buy the rumor, sell the news" risk.
Additionally, there is inherent uncertainty in the current U.S. political and crypto regulatory environment. Is $BTC about to reverse? From the chart, $BTC has formed an M-top pattern at a high level, which is a short-term bearish signal, but I am adding positions against the trend! Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Litecoin mining pool, previously stated that he repurchased 75% of his Bitcoin around 83000. You have to know that such a sharp person is now buying Bitcoin heavily, definitely sensing something. Back to the chart, although the M-top has formed, I never consider technical analysis as a reference for going long or short, because any pattern can be overturned by just one big bullish or bearish candle. I focus more on whether there is a large buy or sell order and the fundamentals. I believe that below 83000, Bitcoin buy orders will definitely outweigh sell orders. By the way, spot ETFs have also started net inflows recently, and off-exchange funds are always watching Bitcoin. As long as it keeps falling, they will dare to pick up cheap chips!$83,000 has not been recovered yet, $BTC is digesting overnight.
Current market conditions show BTC at $82,758, down 1.2% in 24 hours.
After today's hourly low of $82,227, it hasn't broken lower but has consistently traded below the $83,000 level.
Contract funding rates are close to neutral, open interest slightly decreased to around $25.7 billion, indicating position reduction rather than both sides adding leverage to bet against each other.
Top traders' long-short ratio is about 0.61, with the short side heavier.
In sectors, Privacy is down about 4.5%, ZEC is currently around $1,222, down nearly 7% in 24 hours; Modular is up about 3.7%, GameFi up about 2.3%.
About $487 million in spot ETF net outflows have been digested this afternoon; overnight risks are shifting more to the high-elasticity end, while BTC itself is moving sideways.
24-hour BTC liquidations are about $106 million, slightly down from the afternoon peak, indicating a weakening of forced liquidation impact.
For spot, watch if the $82,227 low can hold.
For contracts, until it retakes $83,000, treat the direction as unconfirmed, avoid chasing orders in the consolidation zone, and wait for a confirmed recovery.This touch of green healed my mental exhaustion.💚
$SAND short position +83%, $USELESS short position +10%.
Testing the edge crazily with 20x leverage on the whole position, and the market gave a big red envelope. Sometimes you can't be too honest; when everyone is bullish, try looking at the scenery from a different angle.
Adding a chicken leg tonight isn't too much, right?Is BTC about to reverse?🤔
$BTC $ETH
From the chart, BTC has formed a double top pattern at a high level📉, which is widely recognized as a short-term bearish signal, but I choose to add to my position against the trend!
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Litecoin mining pool, previously stated that he has repurchased 75% of his Bitcoin around 83000✅. Such a savvy veteran in the crypto space making a big move now must have sensed something different.
Back to the chart, although the double top pattern has appeared, I won’t rely solely on technical patterns to decide long or short💡.
You have to know that any candlestick pattern can be completely rewritten by a single big bullish or bearish candle.
Compared to just looking at the chart, I pay more attention to the buying and selling power in the order book and the fundamentals.
I judge that below 83000, BTC’s buying power is destined to be stronger than the selling power💪.
By the way, spot ETFs have recently turned to net inflows📊, and off-exchange funds are eyeing BTC closely. As long as the market continues to dip, off-exchange funds will enter to pick up cheap chips!
What do you think, will this wave form a bottom and reverse around 83000? Let’s discuss in the comments👇A token burn is not a business model.
The real question is what funds it.
When a protocol generates revenue and uses it to buy tokens, the economic link can be measured: fees → purchases → supply reduction.
Burning tokens without recurring demand is a different story.
That’s why the debate around $HYPE’s buyback-and-burn mechanics matters more than the headline burn count.
Track revenue. Track transactions. Then judge scarcity.
#HyperliquidPayout #DeFi #Tokenomics #DailyOrbit The interest rate meeting minutes were hawkish, but the coin price did not continue to fall
The minutes released in the early morning had a tight tone.
$ETH only dropped to 2532 and then stopped.
What is this price level:
2532 is the lowest point of this round of decline.
After hitting the bottom, it climbed back and hovered between 2560 and 2575.
How to calculate the stop-fall signal:
On the 15-minute chart, the 5 MA and 10 MA rose above the 21 MA.
But the volume did not follow, indicating that there are still not many buyers.
$BTC is more resistant to falling, grinding around 83000.
The support below at 82700 has not been broken, so it is still in recovery.
Not falling doesn't mean it will rise.
It just means sellers have temporarily sold out.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #以太坊Glamsterdam升级登陆Sepolia测试网 $ETH $BTC For years, crypto adoption was measured by trading volume, token prices and exchange listings. But a different market is developing: who will safeguard digital assets for the world’s largest institutions? Standard Chartered announced plans to expand its digital-asset custody services into Singapore, covering selected cryptocurrencies, stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. The service is intended for institutional and eligible corporate clients, subject to regulatory requirements. This is $ONDO
This ID's Viewpoint
ONDO 30-minute chart, the high point at 0.6116 peaked and then pulled back, with the upper long-term purple consolidation zone broken downward, and a secondary minor consolidation formed at the 0.4544 low. Entry: try shorting on a rebound when it touches the lower edge of the upper major consolidation and meets resistance; Stop loss: if the price reclaims and holds above the upper purple consolidation zone.
Chan Theory Structure
At the 30-minute level, after hitting the stage high at 0.6116, the price started to decline. The previously long-lasting main consolidation was directly broken down, forming a downward continuation minor consolidation at the 0.4544 low. The market is currently oscillating and consolidating within the secondary consolidation. There are two possible developments: the rebound meets resistance and continues downward; or volume expands and price returns to the main consolidation, invalidating this breakdown and resuming wide-range oscillation.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
The upper major consolidation phase shows sufficient chip exchange. The downward breakout segment had volume surge with selling pressure, bears actively exiting, and bulls insufficiently absorbing. Currently, the secondary minor consolidation’s volume is clearly contracting, indicating a brief pause in the downtrend, with no strong volume-driven bullish counterattack signal yet.
Key Observation Points
Focus on the rebound testing the pressure reaction at the lower edge of the upper purple consolidation. If a stagnation signal appears, the downtrend will likely continue; if volume expands to reclaim the main consolidation zone, this downtrend structure will be broken, and the market will switch to a range-bound tug-of-war.Wall Street has a new lender. Its name is Ripple.
Through Ripple Prime, the crypto company is financing leveraged stock ETFs. One reported deal charges an overnight funding benchmark plus 4 percentage points.
Ripple entered prime brokerage through its $1.25B Hidden Road acquisition.
Important: these are company-level fees, not proven $XRP token revenue.
Crypto is entering Wall Street’s financing business.
#XRP #Ripple #WallStreet #DailyOrbit Focus range: 81,000 is a stronger support, $78,100 (50-week moving average) is the mid-term core bottom line. As long as the price stays above $84,800, the target of $88,500-$90,000 remains achievable.
· Right-side signals: need to wait for ETF funds to resume a sustained net inflow of about $300 million + October 14 CPI data confirming inflation decline + price volume to stabilize above $86,700.
· Seasonal reference: historically, October's average increase is 18.7%, and historical statistics after three consecutive weeks of gains tend to be optimistic, but macro pressure remains the short-term core variable. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC These thousand-plus coins are just an appetizer; the real selling pressure is still ahead!
This time, the US government transferred 1,583.8 BTC to exchanges. It looks intimidating, but compared to their total holdings, this is just a drop in the ocean. Just from the Chen Zhi case confiscation alone, there are 127,000 BTC. The amount transferred this time is less than one-eightieth of that.
At the current market price, these 127,000 BTC are worth tens of billions of dollars. Such a massive stash held by the authorities is like a sword hanging over the market. They transfer a bit today, sell a bit tomorrow, forcing the market to passively absorb this selling pressure. Whenever the market rallies slightly, there’s ready supply waiting to be dumped.
With over a hundred thousand BTC of spot selling pressure looming overhead, the big picture is very clear. I've already taken a heavy short position and am patiently waiting for it to be gradually sold off. Macro trends abruptly shift, and the crypto market suffers another "bloodletting"
The FOMC minutes shattered the post-nonfarm easing hopes, bringing rate hike options back on the table for this year. U.S. Treasury yields surged to a 20-year high, putting risk assets under pressure simultaneously. In the past day, over $700 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with longs accounting for 90%, and sentiment quickly turned bearish.
$BTC lost the 83,000 level, with an RSI of 21.5 entering extreme oversold territory. Around 82,200 is a key short-term defense line, possibly allowing for a technical rebound, but 84,000 has turned into resistance, and a rebound may still face selling pressure. $ETH fell below 2,600, with an RSI of only 17.95; ETFs have seen net outflows for seven consecutive days, and institutional withdrawals have weakened its rebound resilience compared to BTC. $ADA dropped below 0.26, RSI at 32.6, with 0.246 at the lower Bollinger Band temporarily providing support, but the overall market is unstable, making independent strength difficult.
The essence of this sell-off is a macro expectation repricing: rate hikes are no longer a "distant concern" but a "near-term worry." Strategically, do not rush to bottom-fish; first, see if BTC can confirm stabilization around 82,000. Do not hand over chips at panic lows in spot markets; leverage longs should cut losses when necessary. Survival is key to the next round.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 The People's Bank of China issued the "Policy Position on the RMB Exchange Rate," clarifying that China implements a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and referencing a basket of currencies. Since 2017, it has withdrawn from routine foreign exchange interventions. China has no intention of gaining trade competitive advantages through depreciation, never engages in competitive currency devaluation, and only uses macroprudential tools to prevent short-term overshooting under major external shocks such as the pandemic and the tariff war in April 2025. Since the 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB has appreciated cumulatively by 23% against the US dollar, with the nominal effective exchange rate appreciating by over 50%; since 2025, it has appreciated about 9% against the US dollar. The central bank pointed out that using the IMF's External Balance Assessment (EBA) conclusions as official evidence of RMB undervaluation is a misinterpretation and misuse. Alleviating global imbalances requires joint action by deficit and surplus countries. (Source: People's Bank of China)$DOGE dip buyers may be walking into a trap. 👀
Current positions show 744 longs vs 391 shorts, yet only 27.68% of bulls are profitable compared with 82.09% of bears.
The crowded long side is under pressure, while shorts continue to profit. I’m staying bearish and avoiding the rush to buy the dip. 📉
$BTC
$ETH
#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook
#BTCWhalePressureEases
#OKXNOW:24x7MarketEra $ATOM TRADES ABOVE ALL THREE VWMAs WHILE 30D STILL SHOWS -2.96%. Price 1.801 clears VWMA5 1.776, VWMA20 1.768 and VWMA10 1.740 on the daily chart, with 7D at +5.44%. Being above averages isn't confirmation.
I want to see price hold them. Can ATOM hold above VWMA5 at 1.776?Based on the current data, the circulating supply of $CC is already close to 100%, with the maximum supply and circulating supply having little difference, leaving limited room for creating scarcity through "circulating supply expansion" in the future. The current price is about 0.12, while the historical high reached around 1.20. After falling from the high, it still maintains a relatively high market valuation.
What I’m more concerned about is whether it can re-establish a foothold at the key resistance level. If during the rebound the volume fails to keep up, the price struggles to rise, continuous upper shadows appear, or if after breaking key support the rebound cannot recover, it means the bulls’ support is weakening.
So this time it’s not about blindly trying to catch the top, but preparing to wait for the rebound to confirm resistance → price weakening → key level breakdown before gradually positioning short. Once the privacy narrative fades, valuations previously driven by sentiment may face significant repricing pressure.
My core approach: don’t guess the top, don’t heavily short, wait for the structure to deteriorate before shorting, place stop loss above key resistance, and after breakdown, look at the downside potential. $CC A bank doesn’t need to build a crypto exchange to enter crypto.
Wells Fargo is reportedly discussing external liquidity infrastructure for digital-asset trading.
No agreement is confirmed. No launch date exists.
But the business model is worth watching: traditional banks could own the customer relationship while specialized crypto firms provide execution behind the scenes.
The next adoption wave may look surprisingly familiar.
#Crypto #Banking #WallStreet #AdoptionZEC is currently around 1240-1250, having already dropped below 1300.
Looking downward:
· First watch 1150-1200, where there might be support.
· If it breaks below that, then look at 1050.
· If it still can't hold, look at 1000, and in an extreme case, 888.
· If 1230 also breaks, the trend will be even weaker.
Can it return to 1300?
It's possible, but not immediately.
It needs to first hold above 1287, then break through 1355, and ideally stabilize between 1400-1450. Only then is there a chance to retest 1300 or even higher. If it can't get above 1287, it will just consolidate below.
The positive factor is the NU7 upgrade, planned for mainnet on November 5; the negative is that ETFs are still seeing outflows. So it's currently weak, and the rebound depends on these two factors.
In short: first see if 1150-1200 holds; to get back to 1300, it must first stabilize above 1287.
This is not investment advice; ZEC is highly volatile, so don't go all in.$BTC is down about 2% today, but the top gainers tell a different story. $MET is up 51%, $W up 24% and $JUP up 13%. These are not random picks. Each one routes, moves or pools liquidity.
Majors are slipping while the infrastructure layer gets bought. I can't confirm the cause yet. What matters is whether volume stays once the bounce cools..
#BTCETFFlowParadox #SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch Seven days. Seven consecutive ETF outflows.
Ethereum spot ETFs lost another $161M on October 7. BlackRock’s ETHA accounted for $116M—roughly 72% of the day’s net withdrawals.
Total ETF assets still stand near $16.4B.
The issue isn’t whether institutions own ETH. They do. It’s whether fresh capital is arriving fast enough to offset exits.
Watch the flows, not just the candles.
#ETH #Ethereum #ETF #Crypto #InstitutionalMoneyXRP yesterday had a long bearish candle down to 1.4232, and today the price dipped again to 1.3885.
Yesterday's low was 1.4232, the high touched 1.5116 but didn't break through, closing at 1.4348. Today opened at 1.4347, with a high of 1.4415, a low of 1.3885, and the current price is about 1.408. Volume has shrunk.
The resistance remains between 1.4415 and 1.5116. If the price breaks below 1.3885, it’s likely to first test the 1.38 area.
In the short term, watch if 1.4347 can hold. If it can’t hold now, treat this as a rebound after a sharp drop and don’t chase the current price. For those already holding, watch if 1.3885 can support; if it can’t, consider reducing your position. $XRP ZEE, I’ve been waiting for this moment for so long. Do you know what these past two months have been like? 😮💨 $ZEC climbed from around 800 at the beginning all the way to 1,697. I entered around 1,000, added to my position at 1,255, and my liquidation level was sitting near 1,820. The pressure was intense. My roommate, meanwhile, opened a short around 800. We both held our positions for nearly two months, each going through our own kind of pain. And now, finally, my position is back in profiStarting from 18u in August to 2300u in September and then almost a full drawdown of the account today, I calculated that the main loss came from the recent volatile market, with a drawdown of 1100u. The reason was heavy positions of 10% with chasing highs and panic selling; the largest single loss of 400u came from trailing stop losses. Looking back, it's understandable since profit and loss share the same source. Then from October 2nd until now, the account went from 1200u to zero. The main reason this time was rushing to recover losses and ignoring discipline. Trading no longer followed the plan. Even though I set take profit and stop loss before placing orders, when losing, I widened the stop loss, and when supposed to profit, I exited early at slight fluctuations, causing losses to grow and profits to shrink. I calculated that if all orders during this period had been executed according to my original plan, my account should have returned to over 1800u by now, but because I couldn't control myself, this is the result. I really messed up.Three months, the EU has issued a final ultimatum to non-compliant stablecoins.
Just saw this, my first reaction was: people still holding USDT might have trouble sleeping.
ESMA said it very directly: all crypto service providers in the EU can no longer allow customers to buy or increase positions in stablecoins that are not MiCA-compliant. Trading, exchanging, custody, transfers—all stopped. What about existing holdings? You have three months to clear them out, and everything must be handled by January 8, 2027, at the latest.
In plain terms, from now on in the EU territory, you can’t just use whichever stablecoin you want; you need approval from above.
So is USDT compliant? At present, it’s uncertain.
What impact does this have on the market? In the short term, I think sentiment might get a bit nervous, especially for newcomers who just entered the market—seeing the word “clearance” might easily trigger thoughts of a crash. But look carefully, this targets service providers in the EU region, not a global blanket ban. Also, there’s a three-month buffer; it’s not cutting off tomorrow.
What we really need to watch is whether more exchanges will follow suit with adjustments, and whether USDT’s market share will gradually be eaten up by compliant stablecoins.
Is this a big deal? Depends on where you are. If you’re using it in the EU, it’s quite significant. If not, it’s mostly a matter of sentiment.
So here’s the question—are the stablecoins you hold really stable?
#美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架
#三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 $USDT OKB's spike to 139.86 yesterday, no one dares to follow today.
Yesterday's low was 128.2, the high touched 139.86 but didn't break through, closing at 130.45. Today opened at 130.45, the high was 133.48, the low 127.11, current price around 127.2. Volume has shrunk.
The range 133.48–139.86 above remains resistance. If it breaks below 127.11, it’s likely to first see 125.33.
In the short term, watch if 130.45 can hold. It’s already failing to hold, so treat this as a pullback after a spike, don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 127.11 can support; if it can’t, consider reducing your position. $OKB