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大饼涨的好好的怎么又突然回调了呢？谁知道了，这段时间的行情就是这样反反复复，来回折腾。 让你做多不安宁，做空也不消停。 看上方红色箭头所指大饼多次想突破84369的阻力可惜都没成功，突破成功了就是另一种走势了，因为多次突破84369没成功所以出现回调不也属于正常现象吗？不必大惊小怪。 并且现在的回调还跌破了三角形和83523的支撑，反弹不能收回到83523支撑上方运行，83523-84369的盘整区间会被破坏，三角形内部的M头也会成立，因为M头的颈线位就是83523。 M头成立你说接下来大饼要干什么？继续回调呗。 现在就看大饼能否重新收回到83523上方运行，能回到83523上方运行回调结束，无法收回到83523上方运行大饼将会继续向下测试82754和81847的支撑区间。 想做多大饼的同学留意82754-81847的支撑区间看看能否在这个支撑区间出现止跌信号在去做多，这波不能收回到83523上方运行二次测试前低可能就来了，其实我很想让大饼去二次回踩前低80344但是不能跌破前低，在前低附近止跌走一个盘整在上涨，这样做多才有更多利润空间，当下的回调并没有结束，别盲目抄底做多。 大饼带量Nightclub girl's diary of getting out and trading crypto
$SNDK SanDisk's trend looks off, continuously probing the bottom downward.
The market feels like everyone is shorting it; any slight rebound is immediately crushed by large sell orders.
Fortunately, there is support around 1500. If this level doesn't hold, this downtrend will completely spiral out of control.
Currently, the market is flooded with news about interest rate hikes and ceasefires, but most US stocks fluctuate mildly, except SanDisk, which is falling so noticeably.
A few days ago, it was pulled up to 1600, then immediately started to decline, now down to 1572.
Could it really be targeted by Wall Street's big short sellers?
It is originally an AI storage sector stock with a high valuation, very sensitive to interest rates. When rate hike expectations rise, funds are the first to withdraw from such high-growth stocks.
This week, CPI and PPI data will be released soon. If the data leans hawkish, the pressure on high-valuation tech storage stocks will continue to increase.
Focus on the 1500 support level; if it breaks down effectively, the downside space opens up; if it holds here, there is a chance for recovery.
High-valuation stocks are volatile and fierce; don't rush to bottom-fish in this market, wait for support confirmation first.
#CPI and PPI releases are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test Nightclub Girl's Diary of Getting into Crypto Trading
The two most critical bullets of this week are about to be fired: at 8:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday, the US September CPI will be released, and at the same time on Thursday, the PPI will be announced. These two sets of data directly verify the market pricing: whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once more this year.
The current market estimate for CPI is an overall month-on-month increase of 0.6%, core month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with the overall year-on-year range between 3.6%-3.7%. The market has already priced in the impact of rising energy prices, so the focus is on whether core services and housing components can remain stable.
If core inflation exceeds expectations and stays high for several consecutive months, even if the October rate decision meeting is likely to keep rates unchanged, the probability of a rate hike in December will quickly rise. US Treasuries, the US dollar, and gold will all experience significant fluctuations.
Conversely, if core inflation falls short of expectations and drops to around 0.1%, the logic of "another rate hike this year" will loosen, allowing risk assets to briefly breathe a sigh of relief.
PPI should not be ignored. If upstream industrial product prices remain strong, the downward pace of CPI will be slowed.
In terms of operations, try to reduce leverage before the data release and avoid heavy positions betting on a single direction. Just set conditional orders in advance: if core inflation exceeds expectations, follow the trend of the US dollar and US Treasury yields; if the data falls short, watch for rebound opportunities in gold and growth assets.
Remember, recent Federal Reserve officials' statements have been generally hawkish, and the dot plot still leaves room for rate hikes. Data is only a catalyst for the market and cannot directly reverse the big trend.
Positioning is always the top priority. $ARM and $QCOM
Qualcomm and Arm are once again in court in the United States. Qualcomm accuses Arm of violating the licensing agreement and seeks to stop paying patent fees for up to five years. For Arm, such an outcome could mean a loss of billions of dollars in revenue.
This dispute mainly involves the processor technology Qualcomm uses in its chip development. According to Qualcomm's lawyers, Arm failed to provide certain software tools stipulated in the contract and harmed business negotiations with Qualcomm.
Qualcomm claims that Arm disclosed to the media in 2024 the impending termination of the licensing agreement, which should have led to a reduction of $170 million in upcoming order value. Arm denies these allegations and argues that Meta changed its business plans.
For Arm, this is also a significant dispute because Qualcomm is one of its largest customers. In fiscal year 2026, Qualcomm contributed 9% of Arm's total revenue. Therefore, any reduction in licensing fees could have a significant impact on its financial condition. However, the court has not yet ruled on the possibility of suspending license fee payments.
The trial began on October 5, and the jury failed to reach a unanimous decision during deliberations on Friday. Deliberations are scheduled to continue on Tuesday, October 13. The verdict could not only have a major impact on the business relationship between the two companies but also affect the terms of their future cooperation.$SUI doubled in a month, with everyone calculating how far it can go — but if you break down this rally, what’s supporting it are narratives and leveraged longs, not real new capital as a solid base.
From the end of September, it surged from around 0.7 to 1.2 in one go, even touching a previous high of 1.29, and now it’s stuck sideways at 1.12. Doubling in thirty days is true, but it’s been retreating in the past week, with each rebound peak lower than the last, clearly showing that the stack of positions trying to break even at the previous high isn’t strong enough.
Perpetual positions are increasing, with over 60% of Binance accounts long and top traders over 70% long. The longs are all crowded on the order book; the upward push relies on the same group leveraging up, not new money coming in to take over. This structure’s biggest risk is the existing stack of break-even positions accumulated in September above — every attempt to push higher gets pushed back.
What’s worse is the standing sell orders overhead. Only just over 40% is circulating; nearly 60% will be unlocked monthly before 2030, amounting to tens of millions of tokens each month, creating a looming structural selling pressure. The so-called stablecoin yield buybacks are only about 800,000 tokens, which is just a drop against the break-even stack plus monthly unlocks.
This token’s story is loud, with performance and ecosystem news coming one after another. But the actual money backing it hasn’t caught up with the narrative yet. The question is whether volume will push 1.29 down to support or if the unlocking selling pressure will break the sideways range — until then, the sideways movement isn’t stability, it’s longs waiting for the opposing side. Nightclub girls' diary of landing and trading crypto
This week cannot be treated as an ordinary trading week. Macro data, Federal Reserve officials' speeches, tech stock earnings reports, and options expiration all pile up together, making it a solid super week. The volatility of Bitcoin will only be amplified; don't expect the market to calm down.
Let's go through the major events scheduled in the coming days by time.
Tuesday kicks off with the OPEC monthly report, which will reveal how they assess the Middle East oil supply gap. Then comes the US September existing home sales data, used to observe whether the real estate sector can withstand the high interest rate environment.
Wednesday is the real highlight of the week: the September CPI release. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 3.6%, a month-over-month increase of 0.6%, and a core month-over-month increase of 0.3%. This data directly influences market judgment: whether to continue betting on unchanged rates in October or to reprice expectations for a rate hike. If inflation data is hotter than expected, the pressure above Bitcoin will increase significantly, and the psychological level of 80,000 will be precarious. If the data cools down and the bearish scenario is realized, there is a chance to rebound from 83,000 to 84,500.
Thursday follows with PPI and a public speech by Waller. He usually dislikes giving clear forward guidance and fears hawkish remarks in his speech. Rising PPI data combined with Waller's hawkish stance means a double hit to risk assets; if PPI falls and his speech is ambiguous, Bitcoin can briefly breathe a sigh of relief.
Friday is the monthly concentrated options expiration, with the biggest pain point price stuck around 84,000. Market makers, to hedge their positions, can easily amplify intraday back-and-forth spikes. Nightclub girls' diary of getting into crypto trading
The overall 24-hour net inflow looks good, but when you peel back the short-term data, funds are actually quietly fleeing collectively.
$BTC net outflow of 8.07 million in 5 minutes, 172 million outflow in 4 hours, and a cumulative outflow of 3.313 billion over a week;
$ETH outflow of 99.32 million in 4 hours, spot ETFs have had a net outflow for 9 consecutive days totaling 542 million, with BlackRock alone withdrawing 477 million;
$SOL outflows of 8.92 million and 13.68 million in 4 and 8 hours respectively;
$ZEC net outflow of 299 million over a week, Grayscale ETF funds have also started to turn and run out.
The macro environment also gives bulls no breathing room. The Federal Reserve minutes are hawkish, with the possibility of another rate hike within the year. Upcoming CPI on October 14 and PPI on October 15, if inflation rebounds from 3.4% back up to 3.7%, all risk assets will face pressure.
BTC is currently quoted at 84154, having retraced 31% from its high. This level just falls on the ETF average cost line, an important barrier. If this level cannot hold, the next support to watch is 77000. Market expectations put the probability of BTC falling below 80000 in October at 67%.
The market is short-term bearish, but this does not mean chasing shorts is a good opportunity. Chasing longs carries huge risks, and trying to catch a falling knife on a sharp drop is a big taboo. In this market, rather than obsessing over long or short direction, maintaining patience is the most important.From 1699 down to 1112, then climbing back to 1310: 76% of ZEC liquidation orders are shorts
Reviewing $ZEC, first a harsh fact: in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $8 million in liquidations, 76% of which were shorts — all the bearish positions got wiped out during the rally.
It’s been a turbulent month: from a high of 1699, it dropped to 1112, a retracement of over 30%, then climbed back to 1310 in the last two days, up 6% today. Open interest actually fell by 3.2%, and the funding rate is hovering near zero — shorts have been cleared out, but longs haven’t dared to go heavy.
There are reasons: NU7 upgrade testnet launched early, mainnet target is November 5, with a key review on October 20; Grayscale ETF redemptions have just slowed down, and Winklevoss has submitted a new application with a 0.25% fee.
Key levels: resistance at 1384, support at 1112.
With this kind of market where shorts are liquidated and funding rates are near zero, are you waiting for a pullback to enter contracts or jumping in directly? I haven’t decided yet, how about you?$ZEC broke 1300, and $5.03 million worth of short positions in one hour vanished into thin air. Is this a short squeeze or a real reversal???
At noon, ZEC shot up from 1277 to 1317 in one spike. I checked Binance, Bybit, and OKX; shorts liquidated $5.03 million in one hour, with bulls suffering zero casualties.
My short position at 816 is floating a loss of over 500 points, and the 1300 line that everyone keeps talking about is just gone.
My view: I feel this move is a low-volume short squeeze; trading volume is 30% lower than last month, and Grayscale ETF was still seeing net redemptions last week. I don't believe this is a reversal.
Although 1300 was broken, shorts are temporarily on the wrong side, but after more than a month, no adding to positions or shorts. The 1354 to 1390 range corresponds to the 15-day and 20-day moving averages. I hope it can't break through or hold above that, so after the short squeeze, it will crash back down. $ETH $BTC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 4 hours: This rebound from 4066 will fill the previous gap at 4280. 4066-4217
The first small wave's 5-wave structure is complete. Mainly buy on dips during the pullback and continue to watch the rebound structure.
1 hour: The first wave rebound from 4066 to 4117 was blocked by the 4-hour trendline resistance. After range-bound oscillation and pullback, continue northward to watch the rebound. Upper resistance at 4227, 4234. Lower support at 4160, 4141, 4124.
30 minutes: The downward A wave 5-wave structure from 4217 is obvious, with lower support in the 4160-70 range. Look northward for the rebound B wave. Upper resistance at 4198-4205. $XAUT $Reviewing $SOL, noting a divergence: Today's on-chain data shows Solana's meme coin spot DEX trading ratio reached 91%, a nearly 14-week high, with on-chain activity clearly flowing back.
But the coin price doesn't follow. It still dropped 7.5% over the week, now at 111.6. The 16/64/192 moving averages all cluster between 111 and 113.5, with the price stuck in the middle; the high point a week ago was 121.98, which it touched then retreated.
Fees are also cold: +0.006%/8h, open interest shrank by 1.3%, no one is competing on leverage. Today altcoins broadly rose, but SOL only bounced 2.1%.
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 $RSR is up 38.21% at $0.002297, with $3.7M in displayed volume. That’s a sharp move, and I’m not chasing it after such a strong rally. I’d rather wait for a pullback and see whether buyers defend the breakout zone.
Entry: $0.00224–$0.00228
Confirmation: Reclaim $0.00232 with rising volume
SL: $0.00218
TP1: $0.00236 | TP2: $0.00242 | TP3: $0.00250 | TP4: $0.00260
Invalidation: Below $0.00218. No confirmed hold, no trade."Big Brother Maji No Longer Dies as a Bull: A New Pattern of Long-Short Hedging"
The once extremely bullish, heavily invested, and stubbornly contrarian Big Brother Maji has changed his stance. The latest on-chain position disclosure reveals a complete style rewrite: no longer betting unilaterally on bulls, but shifting to institutional-level long-short hedging.
$BTC: 40x short positions, over 20 million U in scale, opened at high levels, slight profits, continuously harvesting funding fees. Logic: upward momentum is weak, insufficient motivation to chase highs.
$ETH: 25x long positions, nearly 20 million U, the only bull in the market. Betting on ETH outperforming BTC, price ratio correction, rotation and catch-up rally.
$HYPE: 5x reversed short positions, 230,000 tokens, over 20 million U. Once the most trusted and legendary coin, now seen topping at high levels.
Core judgment: from pure bullish to long-short hedging, it’s not bearish on everything but no longer blindly stubborn. BTC short, ETH long, HYPE short, the portfolio hedges risks in a volatile market and also reveals his short-term pessimism about the overall market.
💬 Is Big Brother Maji’s shift this time an early sniff of risk, or another contrarian indicator? Let’s discuss in the comments!
#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙 Midday Report: Whale Rebalancing Ignites $ETH, Hong Kong $SOL ETF Launches Tomorrow! $BTC Consolidates at Highs, Beware of Weekend Spikes
BTC: Current price around 84,070 (+0.24%), 24-hour high 84,177, low 82,907. The 15-minute moving averages converge near 83,700, price is stepping on the line upwards. SUPERTREND support at 83,500. Holding here means low risk of pullback.
ETH: Current price around 2,565 (+1.2%), breaking through 2,550 resistance. On-chain data shows a whale selling 410 BTC on Hyperliquid and buying 14,341 ETH at an average price of about 2,520. This rebalancing directly ignited ETH buying pressure. The 15-minute moving averages are bullish, SUPERTREND at 2,545. Resistance above at 2,580–2,600.
SOL: Current price around 112.8 (+0.8%), rallied from 110.8 to 113 last night. Hong Kong will list the second spot SOL ETF tomorrow, a positive catalyst driving volume breakout above 112. Moving averages are bullish, SUPERTREND support at 111.1. Resistance above at 113.5–115. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ 💵 WTI: 92,44 USD/thùng theo Reuters trong diễn biến đầu phiên thứ Hai; giá thanh toán gần nhất hôm 9/10 là 91,85 USD/thùng. Mức 92,44 USD cao hơn khoảng 0,6% so với giá thanh toán đó, nhưng không phải mức tăng 24 giờ chính thức của hợp đồng CL. 🔥 Yếu tố hỗ trợ: Căng thẳng Trung Đông và các vụ tấn công tàu chở dầu làm tăng lo ngại về nguồn cung. Tồn kho dầu thô Mỹ giảm 3,2 triệu thùng trong tuần kết thúc ngày 2/10, trái với dự báo tăng tồn kho. ⚠️ Rủi ro giảm: OPEC+ giữ nguyên mục tiêu sản lưBesent talks about $1 billion in Iran-related crypto assets, with the market watching how much money is involved. The Block reported on the intention to seize, but specific enforcement requires more disclosure. Looking back at the U.S. Treasury's June announcement, OFAC has already sanctioned Nobitex and three other Iranian digital asset exchanges. How will subsequent pressure be transmitted to platforms providing trading and settlement services? I want to continue exploring along this line.
When discussing on-chain funds, the real-world operators must also be considered. How platforms judge transactions, enforce restrictions, and handle disputes may not be fully visible to ordinary users, who might bear time costs when services change. This is a direction worth probing and cannot be used to conclude that any platform will definitely freeze anything next.
I support cracking down on illegal activities with evidence and also hope platforms clarify their handling procedures. After users receive restriction notices, whether they can know which rule is involved, submit materials, and how long the review takes will all affect trust in the platform.
Compliance ultimately comes down to individual transactions. Besides law enforcement progress, I also want to see platforms explain responsibilities and error correction channels, especially when handling disputes—whether anyone can provide clear answers. When a service suddenly becomes unavailable and no one knows the reason after inquiries, someone should be accountable for this uncertainty.
#贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产 $AVAX
AVAX recovery accelerates, can application cooperation serve as evidence of independent buyers?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 10.191—11.033 USDT, change +5.25%, trading volume about 5.55 million USDT.
The window's increase surpasses BTC, and the price has extended to a higher level, showing relative performance. There is a gap between cooperation attention and continuous paid usage; market recovery or short-term rotation can also generate resilience, so business explanation alone is insufficient.
If the 11.033 high is lost in the mid-section, first reduce the judgment of an independent market; if real usage and income can be verified and the pullback holds higher lows, then increase the weight of economic demand.$ETH BTC, ETH, SOL — What’s next? Looking at the three coins together in the context of international situation, US interest rates, and institutional funds.
BTC 83700｜ETH 2560｜SOL 112
🌍 Middle East tensions and oil price volatility intensify inflation concerns, the US dollar remains strong, and risk assets continue to face pressure. #CPI and PPI releases are imminent, and interest rate hike expectations will be tested, possibly becoming a key catalyst for short-term market moves. 
💰 The funding side also deserves caution: last week, US spot #BTC spot ETF saw continuous outflows, ETH ETF net outflows were about $542 million, and SOL ETF ended 14 consecutive weeks of net inflows. Price rebounds do not mean funds have fully returned. 
Key points to watch for the three coins next:
📌 $BTC: Can it hold near 83000? Can it effectively break through 85000?
📌 $ETH: Support around 2500, and can it stabilize above 2600 again?
📌 $SOL: Can it hold near 110? Can it break through 115?
My judgment: Be cautious about the short-term rebound and guard against another dip; but as long as macro pressure eases and funds return, the market may still reverse.
If BTC breaks through 85000 while ETH and SOL remain weak, will you still chase this rally? $ARX I'll be straightforward, the ARX order book is driving my blood pressure through the roof. At 0.2888 there are a bunch of fake orders hanging, and the support orders below are as thin as paper—classic pump-and-dump setup ready to pull the ladder. Damn it, it's quiet outside, but the order book is dogs biting dogs, isn't this the scythe being raised?💀
Technically, the divergence is already blown out, the volume is all fake fire, every long position chasing is a sitting duck. I'm pulling out my spot position first as a sign of respect; this shakeout won't be over until it crushes the panic sellers.
If you want to bottom-fish, don't rush; wait for it to crash on its own first. Whether you follow or not, the risk is on you.
👇👇👇$NEAR is leaning bullish; out of the $5.46 million liquidated in 24 hours, shorts accounted for $3.84 million, wiping out the short side. There were 390 short liquidations versus only 207 long liquidations. The price was pulled from 5.227 to 6.024, with short stop losses along the way basically cleared out. The squeeze-driven push has completed, and now it depends on whether new longs are willing to take over. Open interest remains at $340 million; only a small portion was liquidated, and leverage remains intact. The fee rates for all three phases are close to zero, and longs haven't clustered yet—consider this as background. The descending resistance line from the chart's high point is still in place, controlling the short-term rhythm after the 6.024 pullback. The bullish moving average alignment combined with the broken previous high carries more weight than this line. If the price retests the previous high without breaking it, it will try 6.024 again; breaking above would invalidate the resistance line. Falling below 5.227 would erase all gains from this rally, signaling a bearish reversal.🚨Attention! The largest corporate holder of Bitcoin $BTC, Strategy, has recently shown a noteworthy change!
Market data shows that Strategy's stock price has risen about 18% in the past month, nearly three times the increase of the Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT. However, the stock price has fallen about 8% from its high on September 21.
Even more interesting is its pace of buying Bitcoin!
According to the company's submitted 8-K filings, the amounts of Bitcoin bought by Strategy $MSTR in the last three periods were 950, 1665, and the latest 334 coins, showing a clear decline in purchase volume.
At the same time, the company continues to repurchase STRC preferred shares.
What does this indicate?
First, Strategy has not stopped buying Bitcoin, but the recent purchase scale has indeed contracted. Second, the company is simultaneously repurchasing preferred shares, which means we need to pay attention to its capital allocation and financing strategy.
However, note that a decrease in Bitcoin purchases does not mean Strategy is bearish on Bitcoin $BTC; a rising stock price does not necessarily mean BTC will follow suit.
What is truly worth watching next is whether Strategy can continue to secure funding and whether corporate buying can expand again #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $STRK "Found that the 0.1 support level was tested multiple times without breaking, so I decisively went long and took the profit." To put it simply, well, it just feels like buying here won't lose much. Actually, I don't understand much; I only show off when I make a profit, and when I lose, I quietly hide away to lick my wounds.Brothers, the $MAGIC profit is already in hand, but you also need to learn one thing — don’t panic when profits pull back!
Look at the account: MAGIC long position entered at 0.10636, peaked at 0.14176, with unrealized gains nearly doubling (+99.84%), now pulled back to 0.13245, unrealized profit +24.52U, return rate +73.58%. The profit is still in hand, but some has indeed been given back. Honestly, the biggest mistake at times like this is greed — thinking "one more push and it doubles," only to lose all the profits.
Why does the pullback happen?
First, profit-taking. Altcoins rise too fast, short-term funds see the doubling and immediately cash out, naturally causing selling pressure.
Second, weakening market sentiment. After mainstream coins consolidate for a long time, funds hesitate, and the momentum for small altcoins following the trend also weakens.
Third, fast capital rotation. After this $MAGIC rally, funds may move to other altcoins; once the heat dissipates, the price softens.
Trading approach:
Pullback is a reminder — it’s time to take partial profits. I plan to close half between 0.13-0.135, recovering principal and some profit, and see if the rest can push higher. Stop loss is set below 0.11; if it breaks, exit without hesitation.
BEAT and BICO are still deeply trapped, but this $MAGIC trade has proven that as long as the direction is right, one wave can restore confidence. Don’t let the duck that’s already in your mouth fly away; securing profits is the hard truth.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 October starts with the market first slapping you, then handing you a candy. This rebound after panic selling has pushed the total market cap back to 2.89 trillion, and the fear and greed index has recovered from extreme fear to 56, but don’t be fooled into thinking everything’s fine just because the breathing has evened out — ETFs have seen net outflows of 485 million and 244 million for two consecutive days, institutions are withdrawing, retail investors are watching, so the quality of this rebound remains questionable.
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$BTC around 84,000 | A sandwich cookie, with tough layers on both sides
The 83,000 level is very delicate; it coincides exactly with the average ETF buy-in cost line. Bitwise analysts also point out that this overlaps with historical technical highs, making it a natural barrier. The 84,000-85,000 range above is the densest chip concentration area, with 53% of capital cost positioned above this price. To break through, volume must increase significantly. Below, at 77,000, there are clear signs of accumulation on-chain, and Charlie Quant Lab’s quantitative researchers identify this level as the strongest support. The market currently bets there’s a 67% chance of falling below 80,000 in October. Simply put, bulls need to first overcome the ETF cost hurdle to turn things around.
$ETH around 2,566 | Falling even harder than the big brother, six consecutive days of ETF outflows
$ETH’s drop this round is almost twice that of $BTC. The Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for nine consecutive trading days. The 2550-2600 level is a hard barrier; old on-chain chips are moving, and although derivatives leverage has dropped to a nearly seven-month low, active selling pressure still outweighs buying. Without breaking this barrier, a retest of 2470 or even 2400 is a high-probability scenario. ETH is currently in a "recovery" phase, not a "counterattack" — don’t confuse the two.
$SOL around 113 | Short-term relatively strong, but depends on whether there’s follow-up buying
$SOL’s short-term trend is relatively firm, but the core question is one — can the buying side hold? Once the market plunges sharply, $SOL’s independence won’t last long. Watching capital flows is more useful than watching candlesticks.
$ZEC around 1,335 | Maximum elasticity, but profit-taking could crash the market anytime
$ZEC is driven by both the Grayscale ETF and privacy narrative. The community voted to reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds while retaining the halving mechanism, igniting deflation expectations and sentiment. However, the Grayscale ZCSH ETF has already seen a weekly net redemption of 93.56 million USD, with assets under management falling from a peak of 979 million. Early profit-taking pressure cannot be ignored. High elasticity means it can rise fast but also fall sharply without mercy.
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Two variables that affect everything:
① September CPI will be released Wednesday. Overall inflation expectations jumped from 3.4% to 3.7%, but core CPI slightly slowed, with energy prices as the main driver. The Fed is very likely to hold steady in October, with the market pricing about a 78%-80% chance of no rate hike, but a 68%-70% chance of a hike in December. If CPI exceeds expectations, it will be a heavy blow to risk assets.
② Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine reached an "energy ceasefire," Zelensky responded "willing to start with an energy ceasefire," but Russia has not yet officially confirmed. Truth to be verified; if true, easing oil price pressure is positive for inflation; if a smokescreen, energy prices will continue to disrupt.
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In summary: $BTC watches direction, $ETH watches recovery, $SOL watches capital, $ZEC watches elasticity. Don’t rush to chase; wait for pullback confirmation before acting. The market never lacks opportunities, it lacks patience.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Hello $HYPE brothers and sisters, this is Xiaoma.
Today on-chain we dug up the latest positions of Brother Maji again, and this position is really daring!
First, let's look at BTC: a 40x short position, opened 243 BTC shorts, currently floating profit nearly $260,000, and the funding fee alone has earned over $50,000. As long as BTC doesn't skyrocket, this position is his cash machine.
Next, ETH: a 25x long position, over 8,700 ETH longs stuck, currently floating loss over $400,000, and still paying funding fees. Entry price 2546, still some distance from liquidation, but losses are growing.
The most exciting is HYPE: a 5x short position with 230,000 units, floating loss already $4.86 million! But funding fees earned inversely $1.02 million, meaning too many shorts, paying rent to him daily. Entry price 63.9, liquidation price 106.6.
I think this brother is a typical "earning on one side and losing on the other," using BTC shorts to support ETH longs and HYPE shorts.
What do you think, can Brother Maji hold this position till the end?
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests #Institutions keep positioning, why is BTC still under pressure? #Check in with OKX at 2049 $BTC $ETH $MAGIC If you want to be a “freelance trader,” first take off the romantic filter: it’s not about “not going to work and making money with a few clicks on the computer,” but about being your own boss, your own risk controller, your own executor, and your own small business bearing the losses. 1. First, clarify which path you are taking 1. Using only your own money: stocks/futures/forex/crypto, profits and losses are all yours, the freest but also the loneliest. 2. Prop firm (using institutional funds): pay evaluation fees/pass challenges, trade with company funds, share profits, many rules, strict risk control. 3. Managing others’ money/private equity: managing other people’s funds, the most professional but heavily reliant on compliance and reputation, beginners should not rush into this. 4. Semi-professional: have a main job or other income, trading as a secondary income stream, this is the most recommended way for beginners to start. Beginners most easily fail on the phrase “full-time freelance trader”: no income, no track record, no risk control, yet quit their job first. 2. The goal for the first 12–18 months is not to make money, but to “survive + validate the edge” The order should be: 1. Learn market mechanisms: order types, leverage, margin, slippage, fees, matching, price limits, delivery, overnight interest. 2. Choose one market, one timeframe, one style: - Intraday / swing / trend / grid / arbitrage / quant, don’t do them all. - Stocks suit swing and trend; futures suit disciplined people; forex has good liquidity but toxic leverage; crypto is 24/7 but easily burns people out. 3. MoHong Kong's second Solana spot ETF is coming.
Pando Solana ETF (02831 HK) is expected to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 13, with the subscription period from October 6 to 12, 100 shares per lot, and the issue price tentatively set at HKD 7.8–8 per share.
What really deserves attention is the fees:
The annual management fee is 0.6%, but the expected annual recurring expense ratio reaches 1.6%.
These two numbers differ by more than double.
So when looking at ETFs, you can't just focus on the management fee; for long-term holding, what really needs attention is the ongoing operational cost of the entire product.
Additionally, this ETF does not involve staking nor leverage. This means no staking rewards, but the structure is simpler and avoids related operational risks.
Currently, the global Solana spot ETF net assets are about USD 1.9 billion, with cumulative net inflows of about USD 1.61 billion.
The new spot ETF in Hong Kong essentially adds another entry point to gain SOL exposure through traditional securities markets.
ETFs make buying SOL easier, but when choosing an ETF, you still need to carefully calculate the costs. Under the sideways market, hidden currents surge 🌊
$BTC: Whales are quietly accumulating, yet the price seems held down. Buying pressure and selling pressure are temporarily balanced, with chips flowing from panicked hands to more patient pockets. This silent accumulation won't last forever; once the macro trend shifts, the market could instantly break the calm. 🐋
$ETH: The price shows no promise, but anxiety is fermenting. Progress in quantum-resistant cryptography testing sounds a warning bell for long-term security. The veteran public chain must both expand Layer 2 and safeguard the base layer; the narrative is in transition, but technical debt cannot be ignored. 🛡️
$SOL: Continues to fiercely pursue performance. With 200ms slots and 100 million compute units, it pushes throughput limits higher. Under modular encirclement, it bets on hardware and validator collaboration. Ecosystem self-sufficiency is the trump card; when lacking growth, it can only trade time for space. ⚙️
Capital is watching, technology is racing. BTC fires the starting gun, ETH solves survival challenges, SOL breaks performance barriers. Sideways movement doesn't mean nothing is happening; it's a tug-of-war between infrastructure and liquidity tightening. Don't underestimate the ongoing iteration by today's price. 🚀$APT TAGGED 0.9655, THEN HANDED BACK 2.39%. The daily candle carries a long upper wick, with price at 0.8797. After +43.15% over 30D,
I respect that wick more than the headline gain. Does APT defend today's 0.8396 low on a daily close?Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw redemptions of $679 million, the largest single-week outflow since June. The 9-day $3.1 billion inflow streak disappeared just like that. As a result, BTC actually climbed above 84,000 today—institutions are selling, retail investors are buying, so judge the quality of this rebound yourself.
#BTC #ETF #Crypto
$ETH $BTC MAGIC at $0.13, do you still dare to chase?
From 0.05 to 0.13, doubling on the weekly chart, everyone is shouting "AI Agent new narrative"—but 0.13 is exactly stuck at the consolidation midpoint, with 0.16 pressing down as a shooting star above, and breaking 0.116 below would be an abyss. Is this wave a real breakout, or just a pump by a weak whale using altcoin rotation to lure buyers?
First, look at the surface: the rise is fierce, but the position is awkward.
7 days +100%, 30 days +170%, climbing from around 0.05 to 0.13. Market cap 46 million, FDV 47 million, circulating supply nearly maxed out. 24-hour volume is 300-400 million USD, nearly 10 times the market cap—this is not a fundamental revaluation, it's pure trading volume. Daily RSI 68-71, weekly 74, hot but not extreme like 85. 0.13 is stuck in the upper-middle of the daily range 0.116-0.147, not a breakout level, nor has it broken out yet.
First point: this rally has no hard catalyst, relying entirely on altcoin rotation + AI narrative hype.
Altcoin Season Index has risen to just over 60 in the past month, funds flowing from BTC to high-volatility small caps. The MAGIC project story has shifted from "Arbitrum game DAO" to "AI Agent":
Treasure Chain shut down, Bridgeworld and Canopy stopped, Magicswap and Treasure Marketplace frontends sunset.
The surviving narratives are AI Frens, agents on Ronin, and Kong Book on Loxley in September.
MAGIC is redefined as "agent's reserve token for computing power and governance."
Sounds exciting?
But on-chain there is no volume evidence. TVL and old products have been actively shut down. Market cap of 46 million shows the market treats it as a lottery ticket, not a platform. Rising from 0.039 to 0.13 is just oversold recovery plus beta; don’t fool yourself with the 6 USD price from 2022.
Second point: two risks still hang overhead.
1. Supply risk: The community is watching an ecological fund unlock of about 13 million tokens. Total supply is 350 million; for a 46 million market cap, a concentrated entry would cause a big red candle. Exact timing depends on official announcements; don’t go all-in based on rumors.
2. Brand contamination: The Southeast Asia "Treasure NFT" Ponzi scheme unrelated to this project shares the name, which will scare off those who don’t check contracts and be used as an excuse during sharp drops.
What does narrative reset mean? The product hasn’t been proven yet, so they change the story first to pump the price.
Third point: Technicals tell you 0.13 is not a buy point.
Daily structure:
10/1-10/8: Bottoming at 0.053-0.066 with very low volume.
10/9: Rallied from 0.066 to 0.12 with volume breakout.
10/10: Spiked to 0.160-0.164, closed down to 0.10. Classic shooting star, supply left above.
10/11: Dipped to 0.092 then recovered to 0.13, a V-shape.
10/12: High 0.147, low 0.116, 0.13 is exactly in the middle.
Moving averages: Daily price is above 10/20/50/100/200-day MAs, 50-day around 0.117, 200-day about 0.08-0.09, mid-term trend still bullish. But short-term near 0.12 turned bearish, a pullback within an uptrend.
Key levels:
Resistance: 0.139-0.147 → 0.160-0.164 (10/10 shadow, real gate) → 0.178
Support: 0.122-0.124 → 0.116 (today’s low, break ruins daily structure) → 0.104 → 0.092-0.098 → 0.066 (breakout start)
From 0.13 up to 0.147 is only 13%, to 0.16 about 23%; down break of 0.116 loses 11%, but real failure is below 0.10 or even 0.092, losing 23%-29%. Entering at midpoint, stop loss is either too close and easily stopped out, or too far and not cost-effective.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On the bullish side:
Altcoin rotation, AI narrative is catching attention
Circulating supply nearly maxed, no huge unlock cliff
Daily MAs bullish alignment, OI 13-14 million
Funding rate slightly positive, bulls start paying but lightly
On the bearish side:
No hard catalyst, AI is just a story without product
13 million ecological fund unlock looming
Brand contamination (Southeast Asia Ponzi name clash)
0.16 shooting star resistance, double top risk
Macro: BTC 83,700-84,000, but US 10-year yield 5.36%, ETF net outflows, altcoins just structural rotation
Trading strategy
Leverage first: cap at 2-3x. This market’s daily volatility of 20% is normal; on 10/10 from high to close nearly halved. Using 10x at 0.13, normal pullbacks will wipe you out.
At current 0.13, do not chase.
Three approaches:
1. Holding from 0.06-0.09:
Sell 30%-50% in batches at 0.145-0.16, move stop loss up below 0.116 or more conservatively below 0.104. Don’t give back all profits to unlock rumors and previous high resistance.
2. Want to open new longs, wait for one of two confirmations:
Pullback: catch at 0.118-0.122, exit if breaks 0.114 or daily close fails to recover 0.116. Targets first 0.145, then 0.158.
Breakout: 4-hour close above 0.147 with volume, pullback 0.138-0.142 holds, add more. Target 0.160, if stable then 0.175. If it just pokes 0.16 then falls back, treat as 10/10 copy, reduce position and exit.
3. A deeper entry, only for those who can handle volatility:
0.098-0.104 is 10/10 close and 10/11 start zone. Stop loss below 0.091. If breaks 0.091 effectively, this breakout fails, next support 0.075-0.066, do not average down mid-way.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC My three cards: Wait, Endure, Switch 🧐
Regarding Bitcoin's current correction, I think it's not over yet. Around 83,000 it's fluctuating back and forth; what I'm really waiting for is below 80,000; if it really drops there, I'll take action. The bull market isn't over; this kind of pullback feels more like crouching down to jump. The 78,000 area is where I plan to slowly reduce my position after buying, not to chase now.
No additional SPCX for now. Elon Musk said SpaceX's valuation could reach 1 trillion, which sounds exciting 😅. But based on valuation, 167 is really not cheap. If I want to add, I'll wait for a pullback; don't mess with chips bought at the bottom, just hold.
Storage has actually started to get cheaper. Micron is around 1030; the earnings report shows strong HBM demand, next year's supply is basically locked in, and contract prices are still going up. SanDisk is between 1580 and 1640; Citibank gave a 2100 target, NAND shortages might last until 2028. My approach: slowly shift storage positions to SanDisk, buy on dips, don't chase highs.
To put it simply, I'm waiting for Bitcoin's last drop, waiting for SPCX's pullback, and waiting to catch the storage dip. 🧺
Are you already on board with storage, or like me, waiting for a pullback? 🤔
$BTC $SPCX $SNDK #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ FIL rose about 13.5%, with one week remaining until the Solstice mainnet upgrade.
As of 18:53 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $1.2395, with 24-hour trading volume around $23.02 million, having pulled back about 2.9% from the intraday high of $1.2769. The official Filecoin status page schedules the upgrade for October 19 at 20:59:30, block height 6470279.
This upgrade will adjust the distribution of block rewards. The approved FIP-0118 stipulates that part of the rewards will be used for on-chain services, and whether the service share can increase later depends on actual payment volume. The proposal does not set a direct halving of total issuance on the upgrade day.
My judgment is that the price has already priced in part of the event expectations in advance. Interpreting the reward distribution change as an immediate confirmed supply drop on the day would overestimate its instant impact. If the upgrade is delayed or subsequent payment volume does not meet the threshold, this expectation needs to be reassessed. In the short term, I am more focused on whether $1.2769 can be reclaimed; if it falls below the 17:00 low of $1.2359, I will be more cautious.
$FIL Betting on storage chip competition, SNXX short position with 25x leverage earned 97% profit.
$SNXX tracks SanDisk, but recently giants like China's ChangXin Memory have expanded, triggering concerns of NAND Flash oversupply, putting pressure on the target price.
Shorted at 13.84, current price 13.3.
Although AI storage demand exists, short-term sentiment is bearish. With 25x high leverage, gradually realize profits near the 13.0 mark in batches, and do not treat unrealized gains as principal for reinvestment. $BTC $ETH #贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产 The two documents released this time by the CFTC are not really about "new regulations for prediction markets," but about defining the legal boundaries for event contracts.
One proposal explicitly includes event contracts related to sports, politics, culture, weather, etc., under the federal legal definition of "swap"; the other interim final rule, conversely, excludes traditional gambling such as sports betting and casino games from swaps.
The core issue behind this is actually very simple:
Who exactly regulates these products?
If event contracts fall under the CFTC's jurisdiction as derivatives, they enter the federal commodity derivatives regulatory system; if deemed gambling, they may fall under state-level gambling regulation.
This is also the core of the ongoing disputes between Kalshi, Polymarket, and several state governments.
Currently, neither of the two documents has become the final answer; there is still a 30-day comment period. Previously, the Sixth Circuit Court ruled that Kalshi's sports contracts are not swaps.
Therefore, what truly deserves attention is not what new gameplay a platform has launched, but which regulatory framework prediction markets will ultimately be placed into.
Even when betting on future events, different legal statuses can lead to completely different business models. $OKB This wave isn't just hype; it's supported by an SEC filing.
Some friends might not understand: how can a US regulatory exemption be tied to the price of a platform token? And the terms seem full of hurdles and extremely high thresholds, which should be bearish, right?
Actually, it's not hard to understand:
This exemption lasts five years, until 2031. Each trading platform can list up to 75 top US stocks, and participating wallets must be bound with (SBT) for admission. This is a gatekeeping system tailored for compliant institutions, not a retail channel. The 63 NYSE stocks are just the first batch.
The price of the platform token never depends on how much it rises itself, but on whether there are real assets and real fees on the underlying chain. Tokenized US stocks will run on the X Layer, using permissioned Uniswap v4 liquidity pools, settled with stablecoins, and with instant transfers. This move elevates OKB from an exchange point system to infrastructure.
Next, it depends on whether the SEC process can move forward another step, with the earliest estimate being early November; meanwhile, there's a 30-day objection period for listed companies, and some have already come out opposing it.
My approach is: I will continue holding this card because every step forward in the SEC process is a bet increase. $BOME surged to 0.0011663 then dropped sharply, following the familiar Meme coin sentiment downturn pattern. On the 4-hour chart, several big bullish candles appeared earlier, short-term moving averages all turned up, and volume increased, but after the spike, it closed with a long upper shadow, then consecutive bearish candles broke below the moving averages. Current price is 0.0009441, down 18% intraday. $MAGIC
Opened a 20x short at 0.0010609, currently floating profit of 220%. Many people want to catch the falling knife after Meme coins rose 125%, but these coins follow a sentiment cycle: breakout, capital chase, retail rush, high-level divergence, capital withdrawal. Now it’s clearly the stage of capital repricing, with a huge turnover of 12.7 billion tokens; chasing funds can’t keep up, and profit-taking is rampant. $ETH
Moving averages have turned down, price broke key support, and volume is still shrinking. Meme coins have no faith, only chips; don’t talk about value when sentiment fades. Holding the position, won’t exit until it stabilizes. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Ethereum's price points are extremely difficult to control. Sometimes when Bitcoin falls, it falls along with it; sometimes when Bitcoin falls, it rises; sometimes when Bitcoin rises, it doesn't rise; sometimes when Bitcoin falls, it doesn't fall. It follows its own market trend. $ETH Also, another point is that extreme oversold or overbought conditions are extremely hard to control, not as manageable as Bitcoin. At what position should you trade? It’s also possible that Bitcoin might slightly rebound, create a new high with a false breakout, breaking the previous high. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 CITRINI OUTLINES TOKENIZATION OPPORTUNITIES
Citrini Research’s “Breaking the Wall” names COIN, HOOD and CRCL shares, plus AAVE, ONDO and LINK tokens, as potential beneficiaries of asset tokenization. It warns that more on-chain activity does not guarantee token gains; revenue capture, value accrual, liquidity, security and regulation remain key.
Please do your own research carefully before making any transactions (DYOR). $AAVE $ONDO $LINK
#CPIPPIHikeWatch
#RussiaUkraineTruceWatch A couple of days ago, I mentioned that although $STRK has surged sharply, I am still relatively bullish in the short term, but I also emphasized that chasing after a sharp rise is not advisable. Now that the price has clearly pulled back, I think the risk of a correction probably hasn't passed yet.
What’s more noteworthy is that on October 15, about 127 million STRK tokens are scheduled to be unlocked, mainly involving early contributors and investors. The question is, after just experiencing a rapid surge, now facing an increase in circulating supply, does the market really have enough buying power to absorb it? There is indeed potential selling pressure, especially as market sentiment has already started to cool down, so I think this risk cannot be ignored.
As for the previously hyped L1 transformation and quantum-resistant security, Starknet does have related plans, but it is still in the exploratory stage and far from actual implementation. Having room for imagination is one thing; whether it can support the current price is another.
Therefore, I remain cautiously bearish on STRK in the short term. Although the daily upward structure has not been completely broken, the short-term trend has clearly weakened, and with the October 15 unlock approaching, I don’t think we can conclude the correction is over now. If the $0.10 level does not hold, further downside should be watched for; only if it reclaims and sustains above $0.11–0.113 with continuous support will I consider revising my short-term outlook upward. QCP: Bitcoin $BTC support is near $80,000; if it breaks through $87,000, it may test $94,000
According to BlockBeats, on October 12, QCP Capital published an article stating that it has been a year since the crypto market set the largest single-day liquidation record on October 11 last year, and now Bitcoin's trend seems more stable. The previously feared large-scale repeated sell-offs have not occurred. Despite the US government’s large Bitcoin transfers causing market unease and reports over the weekend of Ledger hardware being attacked with implants, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable.
Bitcoin has repeatedly tried and failed to break through $87,000 but continues to oscillate within a range, with support around $80,000. Implied volatility remains at a high level, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the premium for put options relative to call options is lower than usual, indicating that the market’s defensive positions have decreased but are still pricing in a potential price breakout. If Bitcoin effectively breaks through $87,000, market focus will shift to $94,000. Historically, October is usually a strong month for the crypto market, with last year being a notable exception, and options pricing suggests this seasonal pattern may reappear. $ETH $MAGIC
Several important catalysts are expected this week: Wednesday will see the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Thursday the Producer Price Index (PPI), and Friday will feature Waugh at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank annual meetings.Many people blame the ETH drop on the Federal Reserve minutes. But the minutes were bland and unremarkable; the real reason for the drop was leverage liquidation + ETF withdrawal.
Evidence: right after the minutes were released, ETH actually bounced back from 2405 to 2555 — indicating the minutes were not the main factor.
The real focus is the US CPI on 10/14, which will determine the interest rate direction. Before the CPI, ETH will likely fluctuate around 2500. $ETH
The above is only market research notes and a summary of public information, not any investment advice or trading invitation. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and bear your own risks.$ETH Big Brother Maji's ETH Long Position Breakdown
This is Big Brother Maji's ETH contract long position: 25x high leverage, 19,570 ETH longs, with a notional position value of 50.03 million USD.
The average entry price is 2545.84 USD, current price is 2555.60 USD, unrealized profit on the books is 190,980 USD, return rate 9.58%; liquidation price is 2509.16 USD, margin used is 2 million USD.
Key points:
1. Extremely high leverage, 25x, leaving very little room for market error. If the price drops to around 2509, it will trigger forced liquidation, which is less than 50 USD away from the current price, like dancing on the edge of a knife. Any quick market pullback will cause another liquidation drama.
2. Has already paid 1.35 million USD in funding fees. Holding a long position with high leverage over the long term means funding fees continuously erode the principal. Even if the price stays flat without falling, money will be deducted daily, continuously raising the cost of the position. $RSR This sharp spike caught many chasing halfway up the mountain, while I grabbed a top during the frenzy. A huge long upper shadow at 0.00258, with massive volume at the bottom pushing to the highest point, then the candlestick immediately turned green and fell back—a typical capital retreat after an emotional climax. The 4-hour short-term moving average just turned, and the price smashed through the current price line at 0.002116. $BTC
Opened position average price at 0.002447, holding a 20x short without panic. Many blindly chased after seeing a 29% rise in 24 hours, but ignored the massive volume of 19.1 billion coins and over 40 million USDT turnover below—high-level chips are all cashing out, and chasing funds can't keep up. This wave captured a 272% floating profit, relying not on luck but on understanding the rhythm of high-level divergence and profit-taking escapes. $ETH
No matter how beautifully the rocket is drawn, the fuel will eventually run out and it must land. When altcoin funds are repricing, don't talk about faith; it's better to wait for the emotional tide to recede than to catch the knife with the trend. The position is still floating; won't let go unless the key support breaks. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Sisters, I’m currently shorting $SNDK SanDisk. Is it too late to enter now?
To be honest, it’s not too late, but shorting now carries quite a bit of risk.
First, look at the big picture: the entire storage sector is taking a hit.
On October 12, the US stock storage sector was collectively pressured pre-market: Micron fell 1.99%, SanDisk fell 1.94%, SK Hynix fell 1.54%, Western Digital fell 1.58%, Seagate fell 0.63%. This isn’t just a SanDisk problem; the whole sector is in retreat.
Next, the most hardcore bearish factor — Citron’s short report.
The well-known short-seller Citron Research publicly announced holding a short position on SanDisk, bluntly stating that the current storage chip supply tightness is just a “mirage,” and the cycle peak is near. Citron’s three main arguments are harsh: Samsung’s 30-year habit of using a “sacrificing profits to gain market share” strategy is introducing the most advanced chips into SanDisk’s core battlefield; SanDisk’s long-term investor Western Digital has sold a large number of shares at about 25% below market price; currently, there is capacity ready to be unleashed equivalent to twice the 2018 peak capacity, and the supply-demand pattern could be completely reversed in “one earnings call.” Citron even said directly: the market prices SanDisk like Nvidia, but Nvidia has a moat, SanDisk is just selling commodities.
The capital side is also showing red flags.
Data from the Korean Exchange shows foreign ownership of Samsung Electronics has dropped to 46.37%, the lowest since July 2009, a 17-year low; foreign ownership of SK Hynix has hovered around 49% for eight consecutive trading days. Foreign capital is massively withdrawing, dragging down sector sentiment.
The technical side is also not optimistic.
SanDisk has fallen back from the October 5 high of $1704. Resistance levels are at 1660 and 1680; if it can’t hold 1640, it may fall back to 1600 or even below 1580. The daily bullish structure hasn’t broken yet, but the resistance near the upper box edge at 1820 is very heavy; if it can’t break through, it will fall back.
My judgment: this position can be lightly shorted, but it’s definitely not the time to hold heavy positions stubbornly.
Key resistance above is at 1660-1680; a rebound meeting resistance in this range is a shorting opportunity, with stop loss set above 1700. The first target is 1580; if broken, then look at 1500. Use stop losses well, take a bite and run, never get stuck in a fight.
But a reminder: SanDisk has real AI storage demand support, Q4 revenue grew over 371% year-over-year, and the forward P/E is only 8 times. If there’s an unexpected positive surprise, the short squeeze could be fierce. Short positions should either have strict stop losses or be light and short-term; never bet the farm on direction.
Sisters, do you think SanDisk can break below 1500 this round?
$BTC $MAGIC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 First, record the position of $AVAX, then discuss the viewpoint: current price is 11.107, about 7.05% away from the 1-hour support at 10.324, and about 0.07% away from the resistance at 11.115.
$AVAX price is moving, but the volume has not confirmed this move, which is more noteworthy than the 24-hour +7.28%. The 1-hour and 4-hour are both slightly strong, with RSI at 64 and 71 respectively.
I only keep one confirmation for the upward trend — holding above 11.115; and only one condition to negate the upward trend — breaking below 10.324. Other fluctuations are considered noise for now.
If you must choose a verification point first, would you focus on confirming the resistance or the breakdown of support?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.The fundamentals haven't collapsed; waiting for the 10/29 earnings report to verify.
SanDisk's underlying logic remains: peer Micron's strong earnings, NAND price increases, and booming AI storage demand. Analysts' average target is 2173 (buy, +37% upside).
However, the stock price has risen 558% since the end of last year, so the valuation is not cheap.
SanDisk's own earnings report on 10/29 is a turning point—if good, the rally restarts; if bad, the decline continues.
Currently, the 10-year US Treasury yield is about 5.23%, a watershed level: holding below 5.30 → stable risk appetite with support; breaking above 5.35+ → high-valuation tech stocks get hammered collectively.
Combined with the US CPI guidance on 10/14, macro factors will determine the short-term direction. Technically, watch if 1584 is reclaimed; macros look at 10Y and CPI.
$SNDK
The above is only market research notes and a summary of public information, not any investment advice or trading invitation. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and bear your own risks. CPI jumped from 2.4% to 3.8%
This week's data hasn't been released yet, but the price is already stuck.
What is this price level: Above $BTC at 84,705 there are 29.23 million short orders.
Below at 82,188 there are 40.31 million long orders, heavier below than above.
How is this number calculated: The liquidation map records how many leveraged positions exist at each price level.
When the price hits there, the system liquidates these positions for those people.
The liquidation orders then push the price further in that direction.
Long-term holders are not watching this.
Before the data comes out, the price shakes back and forth, sweeping out those with stop-loss orders.
Stop-loss orders near 82,188 are already lined up.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC $XRP fell 6.62% over the week, with one day accounting for 82% of the drop.
▪️ On 10/12, it was reported at $1.41067, up 0.27% intraday, with a volatility of 1.51%
▪️ 7-day change −6.62%, largest single-day drop within 20 days −5.42% ⇒ one day accounted for 82% of the week's decline
▪️ The remaining four days combined had a drop of less than 1.2%
▪️ 4.40% below the 20-day moving average of 1.47558, 14.89% below the 20-day high of 1.65754
▪️ 7.03% above the 20-day low of 1.318, position at 27.3% within the range
▪️ RSI14 at 31.96, second lowest among ten coins; 200-day moving average buffer +10.15%
The divergence is not in how much it fell, but that the entire drop was concentrated in one day.
The −5.42% in one day and −1.2% over four days represent two types of selling: the former is a one-time position adjustment, where once the trigger condition is met, volume concentrates and clears out, stopping the next day; the latter is continuous turnover. Prices that drop and then stop remain in place, slowly seeping downward.
The direction is to wait and see — only talk about recovery if it stands above 1.47558; if it loses 1.318, look toward the 1.28 level.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Relying on $HYPE's ecosystem expansion, a 50x long position secured a 157% profit.
After the HIP-3 and HIP-4 upgrades, the platform supports permissionless perpetual contracts and prediction markets, locking in a large amount of TVL.
The protocol's annualized revenue has soared to hundreds of millions of dollars, with real cash flow supporting the token's value.
Entry at 84.079, current price 86.721. However, the massive token unlock is a long-term risk. There is huge resistance before the 100 mark; a 50x contract must be cautiously developed, withdrawing profits in batches to reduce risk. $BTC $ETH #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6%