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Brothers, today let's talk about an old familiar player in the cross-chain track, Wormhole $W. Many people are confused by its massive cross-chain data and think it's the next track leader, but peeling back the surface data, the truth isn't that rosy. First, let's talk about its credentials: Wormhole is a top-tier cross-chain communication infrastructure in the crypto world, connecting over 30 public chains, heavily integrated with the Solana ecosystem, with huge daily cross-chain transfer volumes. It's deeply backed by the institution Jump Crypto. It was once hacked for $325 million, but the institution directly covered the full loss out of pocket, which is rare in the entire DeFi space and adds a layer of institutional credit buff to the project. It looks like hardcore underlying infrastructure, but the token $W is a typical case of a hot protocol with a miserable token. The first major pain point: the protocol has huge traffic but doesn't make money. The bridge handles tens of billions in funds daily but currently charges almost no fees. Without real protocol revenue, the token has no fundamental anchor. Even if trading volume explodes, profits don't reach token holders; its value now relies solely on narrative and governance expectations. Second, unlocking selling pressure hangs overhead. With a total supply of 10 billion tokens, the team and investors' shares are continuously unlocked linearly, and every unlocking window tends to cause a dump. The historical peak was above $1.5, now it has dropped to a few cents, and countless early entrants are deeply trapped. Whenever there's a rebound, there will be selling pressure from those trying to break even. Third, the industry competition is fierce. The cross-chain track is not dominated by one player; LayerZero and CCIP are taking turns to grab market share. Wormhole's advantage lies in So $ETH breaking the resistance level is what counts as a breakout; if it doesn't break, then it hasn't broken
$ETH is currently stuck below the 4-hour resistance level.
If it can't get through, it will have to look for a position lower down.
What is a resistance level:
It's not a single line, but a cluster of pending orders at certain prices.
When the price rises to that point, sell orders increase, and if buyers can't hold, the price reverses.
How to judge a breakout:
You need to see a close above the level, not just a brief spike.
If it spikes up but then falls back, it means sellers above haven't finished exiting yet.
Looking downward, if the daily support doesn't hold, the weekly midline is around 2168.
This number is calculated, not guessed.
Those who placed stop-loss orders just above the resistance level have already been swept out once.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH “As long as it's not high leverage, actually entering around here doesn't make much difference. Du Ge's philosophy is to make money from trends with low or even zero leverage. Brothers, don't interpret this from a contract perspective.”
____
37 Du: Maybe I described it wrong, let me say it again. Long-term positions are not low leverage, but zero leverage. Once there is leverage, you get stopped out by spikes, the price goes back, and the position is gone. When I was at 312, my Bitcoin collateral ratio was 50%, already breaking through the liquidation price. Fortunately, AnYin has a no-liquidation mechanism, equivalent to 100 units. Now borrowing 50 units would cause liquidation, meaning BTC doesn't need to drop 50% to liquidate, just a 50% spike to quickly recover. This is totally possible when liquidity is poor. Can you believe a continuous two-day drop of over 30% each day?
312 dropped quickly from 10,000 to 3,000, then quickly pulled back to 6,000, your position was gone... Many industry veterans were eliminated in this wave.
2020's 312
2022's liquidation wave
1011's epic liquidation
...
All of them are ruthless.
Respect the market, eliminate on-exchange leverage, and give your life a higher fault tolerance.$BCH
BCH recovery is stronger than BTC, is payment demand the reason?
Spot 24-hour observation window this morning: range 275.4—287.8 USDT, change +2.91%, trading volume about 5.14 million USDT.
Higher returns in this window indicate short-term elasticity, but do not directly provide merchant acceptance or actual settlement volume. Payment use and sustained holding demand are not proportional; buyers in transactions may also just be participating in the overall market recovery.
If BTC stabilizes but BCH falls below 275.4, it reduces the explanation of independent demand; if settlement evidence improves and after reclaiming 287.8 maintains a higher low, then reassess the transmission of payment value.$SNDK
1500 is the key support level on the 8-hour chart. The big picture is to wait and see, while the short-term cycle looks for an oversold rebound 📊
Long-term cycle (3-day line)
This rebound started when the 3-day MACD returned to the zero line, reaching a high of 1914;
Currently, the 3-day MACD shows potential weakening, and the major support at 1372 must hold—
If broken, the upward rebound structure on the 3-day line will be destroyed.
Medium cycle (4H / 8H)
Last week, the 4-hour core support at 1617 was lost again, currently pre-market at 1552;
Next to watch is the 8-hour support at 1500, which is 52 points away from the current price.
Two scenarios 🎯
✅ Hold 1500 → Short-term cycle demands an oversold rebound, targeting 1682 (recent resistance)
❌ 8-hour closing price effectively breaks below 1500 → Accelerated drop towards 1372
Trading strategy 🧭
🔸 Big picture: wait and see (be cautious with longs, wait for conditions to short)
🔸 Focus on 1500 these days
In short: 1500 is the lifeline between bulls and bears; holding it means a rebound, breaking it accelerates the drop.
Which side are you on tonight?👇Generally, those who study finance play Texas Hold'em, and I'm no exception!
Suddenly I want to compare it to the crypto world $BTC. I wonder if anyone else feels that sometimes no matter how you trade, you make money, everything goes your way, but other times no matter what you do, you lose money, everything goes against you!
If I were to use a specialized term, it would be the winning streak and losing streak. I used to not believe in the mysticism of trading, but many successful traders do believe in it.
Only after going through a lot myself can I somewhat understand these traders. I just hope everyone can admit defeat when going through their losing streak because trading $BTC is not a short-term thing.
Obviously, playing cards is also about pursuing long-term positive EV!
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $DOGE Dogecoin's movement overnight tells a story of "waiting for a breakout"
On the 15-minute chart, the price started from around 0.08360, pushing up steadily to 0.08820 with small gains, then did not quickly pull back but consolidated sideways near 0.0871. The volume during the rally reached 5.12 million coins, and it clearly shrank during the pullback, indicating that short-term selling pressure was not heavy, thus the sideways consolidation found support.
There are several signals on the chart. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 converge near 0.0870, with the price hugging the upper edge of the moving average band, showing a temporary balance between bulls and bears. The super trend line is at 0.08785, with the intraday high touching 0.08772, just shy of flipping bullish. In the order book, the top buy order holds 320,000 coins, while the top sell order is only 21,000 coins, indicating stronger support below.
Looking at a longer timeframe, the structure is clearer. A 6.42% pullback over the past 7 days, but still a 3.15% gain over 30 days and an 18.70% gain over 90 days. This shows the short-term correction remains within the quarterly uptrend framework, and the low at 0.0836 is higher than previous lows.
Going forward, watch two key levels: $DOGE breaking out with volume above 0.08785, flipping the super trend green and opening upward space; or falling below the dense moving average zone at 0.0870, which could lead to a retest around 0.0855 for re-accumulation. The sideways consolidation won't last long, and the directional choice will likely come within the next one or two candlesticks.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 Today, an old buddy in the group asked me if $ICP is about to revive. I asked him if he has flipped his account. My deepest impression of this coin isn’t its price fluctuations, but that there’s always someone in the group saying "take it slow, no rush," and then slowly over two years, the position shrank to just a few dozen dollars left as an offering, watching every day hoping to break even. Today it rose about ten percent, and some people started dreaming, thinking what’s the use of a thing priced just over 3 or under 4 dollars rising this little. If you want to get your principal back, don’t talk about breaking even first; ask yourself why you got in back then. I already accepted my loss on that one; it was money spent on a lesson. $ICP $BTC This evening's downward move broke around 83400. The price slid quickly from above 84,000, which surprised me a bit. But the 15-minute candlestick just dipped down and immediately pulled back at close. The candlestick that broke the previous low has a very long lower shadow. The price did not continue to fall but stabilized.
This is a liquidity sweep. That is, the price broke below the previous low, consumed the passive buy orders accumulated below, then reversed upward. The next bullish candlestick fully recovered the previous decline. This is a very standard reversal pattern; the bears did not continue pushing down.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the low hit the bullish order block from the morning. The order block was the starting point of this earlier move and now supports the price. Meanwhile, the 15-minute MACD green bars are continuously shrinking, indicating weakening bearish momentum. Although the trading volume is decreasing, the price is no longer making new lows.
Looking ahead, I lean bullish. The price quickly pulled back, showing that buying interest remains at the lows. The dividing line for the trend is around 83100. If a candlestick closes below this level later, I will have to reconsider this judgment.
$ETH $SOL #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $SNDK has been weak like a pile of excuses since I entered the market.
With AI not fundamentally changing storage, the trend of SNDK is just too weak.
If the US stock market doesn't effectively rebound at tonight's open,
it feels very likely that the $1500 level won't hold.
Lately, I've been operating as a contrarian indicator myself.
Shorting altcoins and going long on US stocks are both losing badly.
If it breaks below $1500, I'll admit my mistake and cut losses.
----------
Now let's look at $SPCX.
I have to admire Elon Musk's ability to control the market.
Despite the overall downtrend in US stocks,
it remains stable above $160.
It's a bit like a bulldozer mode for altcoins.
At this momentum,
breaking through $170 is just a matter of time.
One thing I don't understand right now:
SPCX has had massive unlocks this year.
Where has all the selling pressure from these unlocks gone?
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ What’s next for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XAUT? Three major variables determine market direction
BTC 83406｜ETH 2550｜SOL 111｜XAUT 4171
First layer: Geopolitical situation and energy prices. The Middle East situation affects oil prices, and rising energy costs may push up inflation expectations. Although gold has safe-haven demand, a stronger dollar will exert pressure, and safe-haven funds may not fully offset interest rate pressures.
Second layer: U.S. inflation and interest rate expectations. CPI on October 14 and PPI on October 15 are about to be released. If inflation exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations may cool down, putting pressure on risk assets like BTC; if inflation falls, market sentiment may recover, but it is still necessary to observe whether U.S. Treasury yields fall simultaneously.
Third layer: Institutional funds and market validation. ETF flows and spot trading volume determine the quality of the rebound. BTC focuses on 83000 support and 85000 resistance; $ETH focuses on 2500/2600; $SOL focuses on 110/115. If BTC rebounds but lacks capital support, the breakout may be difficult to sustain. For $XAUT, key observations are gold prices, the dollar, and real interest rate changes.
My judgment: Currently, it looks more like a directional game before macro data releases. Gold strengthening and crypto assets weakening may reflect rising safe-haven demand, but price performance alone cannot confirm that funds are flowing from crypto to gold.
If gold continues to strengthen while BTC fails to break through 85000 for a long time, do you think this is a safe-haven market or is the crypto market gearing up for a breakout? $W First target 0.027 reached!! Why can the second target 0.025 be reached??
0.027 has been realized, better to take profits now to avoid losses. Tokens continue to unlock, long-term selling pressure remains unresolved, pure governance token with no fee sharing or burning, unable to absorb sell orders. Moving averages suppress price, most rebounds are traps. 0.025 is a previous platform dense area, breaking it can accelerate the move.
Reduce position on rebound and short, set stop loss above previous high, add position if broken. Set take profit and stop loss in advance. 先给结论。BTC 白天的剧本跟早盘说的一模一样：摸到 84,250 又缩回来，现价 83,419，24 小时微跌 0.3%。ETH 摸到 2,577 回到 2,554，24 小时涨 0.7%。过去 24 小时全网爆仓 1.67 亿 美元，空单被爆 1.15 亿、占了快七成，是早盘那 6,554 万的 2.5 倍。恐惧贪婪指数从 61 回到 69。核心一句话：早盘说的空头回补白天又挤了一轮，但 84,000 到 84,355 这道坎还是没站上——涨的燃料依然是对手盘的被迫买入，不是新钱。 为什么这么说。白天价格从 83,600 附近往上走，一摸到 84,000 上方，早盘堆在那一带的空单就开始被止损、被爆仓，平掉空单就得买回来，买盘又把价格往上顶了一截，最高顶到 84,250，离 84,355 的 38.2% 回撤位就差 100 美元。但顶上去之后，现货的跟进买盘没接上，价格又滑回 83,400 一带。这说明两件事：第一，空单确实还有存量可挤，白天这一轮空单爆仓从早盘的 3,322 万涨到 1.15 亿；第二，真正的“看好才买”的钱还是没回来——以太坊现货 ETF 上周净流出 5.42 Brothers, daily mainstream altcoin quick report
$XRP $1.40 | $SOL $111.3 | $DOGE $0.0871
The three major altcoins collectively pulled back, XRP fell back to 1.40, SOL lost 112, DOGE is struggling around 0.087.
DOGE's on-chain activity is nearly halted. The network processed only 17,404 transfers in 24 hours, with just 6 transactions pending confirmation in the mempool, while the market cap is as high as $13.3 billion. Bitwise's DOGE ETF will close on October 14, with zero inflows since listing. Addresses holding between 1 million and 100 million coins have reduced about 100 million coins since Tuesday; 0.084 is the last defense line of the uptrend.
Institutional demand for SOL is ebbing, but there is still foundation on-chain. In October, SOL ETF net outflow exceeded $22 million, last week's inflow was only $2.43 million, shrinking 99% compared to the previous week's $188 million. However, Solana has 1.71 million new wallets daily, 4.27 million daily active addresses, and hot money is still on-chain, but slow money from ETFs has left.
XRP ETF attracts funds against the trend but the price does not rise. Last week net inflow was $11.3 million, with Bitwise alone supporting $10.55 million. XRP fell from 1.52 to 1.31 then rebounded to 1.40; 1.37959 is a key support—holding it keeps the structure intact, losing it points to 1.33.
Discuss in the comments, which of these three do you least favor?👇
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Gold ETFs are still buying, but the price is falling. Why? Because US Treasury yields have been staying high, suppressing gold from risingThe key for DOGE's current rebound is whether it can hold its ground! Don't be fooled by today's gains; the space lost from the previous drop hasn't been fully recovered yet.
DOGE is currently priced around 0.0875 USDT, up about 2.8% in the last 24 hours. However, judging from recent trends, the price has fallen steadily from around $0.097, so this short-term rebound cannot yet be considered a reversal.
On the upside, watch for $0.089–$0.090; only a breakout with volume above this range will give a chance to push toward $0.093. On the downside, keep an eye on $0.085–$0.084; if this support breaks, it may retest around $0.082.
On the news front, DogeOS recently launched a public testnet supporting trading, lending, and stablecoin applications, attempting to expand DOGE's practical use cases. However, it is still in the testing phase and should not be considered an immediate bullish catalyst.
Short-term strategy: only consider continuation of the rebound if it breaks and holds above $0.090; if it falls below $0.084, be cautious of further weakness. This currently looks more like a corrective move after a decline, so blindly chasing the rise is not recommended. $DOGE Brothers, the ETH staking queue has changed, and this is more important than the price itself.
$BTC $83,400 | $ETH $2,550
Bitcoin rebounded from 80,400 to 83,400, while Ethereum is consolidating around 2,550. In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled $70.7 million, with shorts accounting for 54%.
Those wanting to sell ETH have basically sold out.
At the end of September, there were still 851,000 ETH queued for unlocking, and the market once worried about a sell-off. Now only 154,000 remain in the exit queue, while 1.68 million are waiting to be staked, an 11-to-1 ratio of inflow to outflow. Exchange ETH balances have also dropped to 3.49% of total supply, the lowest since November 2024.
But leveraged longs have piled up heavily on ETH. On Hyperliquid, ETH open interest contracts reached $3.3 billion, surpassing Bitcoin, with 67% of positions being long. If it breaks below 2,400, the risk of liquidating these longs is significant.
Technically, 2,400 is the lifeline for ETH; holding it is necessary to have a chance to challenge 2,800. For BTC, 82,000-82,300 is the first line of defense.
Let's discuss in the comments: staking exit clearance—could this be a bottoming signal?👇
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Bitcoin is expected to continue fluctuating, patiently awaiting this week's CPI and PPI.
Today, BTC once broke through $84,000, then fell back to around $83,400.
Currently, the position is short on SUI; after a pullback rebound, Bitcoin is expected to continue fluctuating. Shorting altcoins at high rebound levels is cost-effective but position control is necessary.
Currently, three main changes are being focused on:
1. Macro environment: The Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire news temporarily pushed oil prices down, driving a rebound in risk assets, but the agreement still has uncertainties. High yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and inflation pressures have not disappeared.
2. Capital flow: Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million, ETH a net outflow of about $542 million, indicating the capital side remains weak.
3. Market structure: Altcoins have rebounded, futures trading volume has significantly increased, but the growth in open interest contracts is limited, so it cannot yet be concluded that new funds have continuously entered the market.
My judgment:
Short-term sentiment has somewhat recovered, but there is still insufficient evidence for a trend reversal.
BTC key focus is on the $82,000 support and whether it can break through around $84,000 again.
The most critical events this week are the CPI on the 14th and PPI on the 15th. Rather than predicting direction in advance, I prefer to observe the U.S. Treasury reaction, ETF funds, and market volume-price changes after the inflation data is released.
Price rebounds do not equal trend reversals; ultimately, judging the bottom depends on whether capital can continue to flow back.$PONS broke below the previous low, the weakness is not over yet
$PONS accelerated downward in the short term, the current price has fallen below the low points of the past few hours. I choose not to buy into this weakness. The high and low points of the past few hours were 0.354 / 0.3359 USDT, and the just closed 5-minute candle was at 0.3223 USDT, with the price clearly below the lower boundary of that range.
From the rhythm, it dropped 5.32% in the last hour, and another 4.42% in the last 15 minutes, the decline is still continuing in the short term. The overall drop in the past 24 hours is -9.06%, indicating this is not a sudden spike but a sustained weak state.
I won’t try to guess the bottom at this position. Since the price has already fallen below the previous reference low, I will at least wait for it to climb back above 0.3359 USDT before considering. For now, watching is more comfortable than acting."Four years, one liquidation cycle, and a confession from a 985 economics graduate"
Four years in the circle, counting real money. If counting from the day I learned about $BTC, it's been eight years; I was in the second year of high school then.
My undergraduate trading was just small-scale. Last year, I made my first "big money" trade. I lost over ten thousand, about 30% of my principal.
That year, I experienced what others go through in the crypto world over several years: making 15x gains, liquidation, C2C, liquidation again, and the cycle repeated.
The most dangerous time was when I couldn't withdraw money from the fund over the weekend; I almost borrowed online loans to cover my position. In hindsight, I nearly became the kind of person I despise the most.
I am a 985 economics graduate student, confident in my learning ability and cognition, yet I still couldn't escape the "rational man’s dilemma"—knowing I was gambling but having to gamble anyway.
This year is different. Profits and losses are stable, I’m not driven by emotions, and I can calmly face a failed trade. Before, losing one trade made me obsess over making it back; now I accept it and review my mistakes. This is progress for me.
If I could start over, I don’t know if I would enter this circle again. But as long as I know BTC, I will remain its believer. Because it fits all my fantasies about a sovereign-less currency.
This is just a personal reflection and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $SOL's movement today, I can only say: two times it surged high, two times it failed to hold.
All Sunday it hovered between 109 and 110, so flat that I was too lazy to even open it. Then that bullish candle at midnight suddenly pulled from just over 109 to 112, I was asleep and completely missed it.
Woke up in the morning and, wow, it had already finished rising.
At noon, another big bullish candle pushed it straight up to 113.4. I had already clicked into the order page, thinking maybe this time it would break through. But within two hours, bearish candles came one after another, and now it's back to 111.3, basically back to where it was at midnight.
All for nothing.
The most frustrating part is, I checked more than twenty times today, didn’t dare chase when it was rising, wanted to buy the dip when it was falling, and ended up doing nothing. If I had just honestly closed the app and slept, the result would have been the same, and I might have saved some hair.
Last week SOL dropped hard, so I really don’t trust this small rebound today. Every time I think "it's stable," it hits me like this—I’m almost developing a conditioned reflex.
Right now I’m just watching the 111 line; if it holds, I’ll consider it still consolidating, if it doesn’t, then today’s rise was for nothing.
Anyway, I’m not making a move.
Did you guys get in today? Or like me, just watching without acting?Recently, the crypto market has shown a typical internal divergence among mainstream coins: Bitcoin has entered a slight pullback, while Ethereum has independently rallied. This structural rotation is the result of a combination of capital preference and market environment. Bitcoin is currently oscillating downward around $83,000. Previously, there were consecutive days of net outflows of spot ETF funds, with a cumulative outflow exceeding $700 million, marking one of the strongest institutional capital exits since the second half of this year. Coupled with a large amount of short-term profit-taking accumulated near the key resistance level of $84,000, some funds chose to take profits and exit, directly suppressing Bitcoin's upward momentum and gradually triggering a short-term pullback.
Meanwhile, Ethereum has bucked the trend during the same period, quickly rising above the $2,550 mark, with an intraday peak increase close to 2%. Ethereum previously experienced a short-term deep correction exceeding 7%, during which a large number of high-position long leverages were fully cleared, and short-selling pressure was also concentrated and released. Additionally, ongoing technical upgrades at the ecosystem level and growing long-term expectations for real asset tokenization applications have led many low-position institutional funds to choose this time to bottom-fish and build positions. This has rapidly boosted buying power, driving an independent recovery in price. The order depth within its 0.5% price spread has doubled compared to the flash crash phase, with significantly increased market maker participation, supporting this counter-trend rally.
This round of divergence is a common rotation phenomenon among mainstream coins during a bull market cycle, rather than a signal of trend reversal. Overall market liquidity has not experienced large-scale contraction. Going forward, attention should be focused on the key support level around $81,500 for Bitcoin and the pressure zone of previous trapped positions above $2,700 for Ethereum. Combined with the upcoming release of U.S. CPI inflation data and its impact on macro liquidity, it will be possible to judge whether the subsequent market will continue the rotation or return to synchronization. $BTC $ETH Don't be fooled by the short-term rebound! It's too early to call a bull market recovery speed 🤔🤔🤔
BTC just made a slight rally, and the whole network started flooding with "bull market recovery speed"! But objectively speaking: this is just a technical correction after an oversell, not a trend reversal. 🤓🤓🤓
The market is catching its breath in the short term because the October rate hike expectations have cooled significantly, giving the crypto market a brief rebound space. However, the Federal Reserve's overall stance remains hawkish; the meeting minutes show most officials support another rate hike this year, and Goldman Sachs even bets on two hikes, so long-term monetary tightening pressure remains.
Currently, the market shows very clear divergence: BTC holds steady around 83,000, showing the strongest resistance to decline, but heavy resistance above and intense long-short battles make the sustainability of the rebound questionable.
ETH is weaker, oscillating repeatedly around the 2,500 mark, following the broader market but with seriously insufficient bullish strength; SOL is a typical highly volatile speculative coin, repeatedly shaking out around 110 dollars, with sharp ups and downs—a real grinder for retail investors.
Market sentiment is extremely sensitive right now, with all funds on the sidelines. The core factor that will truly decide the market direction is this week's crucial CPI data! The data's quality will directly affect rate hike expectations and set the rhythm for the next round of crypto market ups and downs. At this stage, do not blindly chase longs.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $ZEC perpetual 50x long position, opened at 1236.09, now at 1306.66, floating profit +285.45%.
The logic is very simple: repeatedly testing the bottom near 1236.09 without breaking, each pullback is quickly pushed up, the lower shadows are getting longer, and the selling pressure is clearly exhausted. Wait for a volume breakout, confirm on the right side, then go long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1200. This wave of rise was quite smooth, giving no chance for a pullback, and the profit more than doubled directly.
Now move the stop loss to 1280 to lock in profits. If there is a volume breakout above 1400, you can hold on a bit longer. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 No major new developments from top institutions in the past 24 hours, just extensions of old trends. Chen Maobo from Hong Kong called 2026 a turning point for Web3 plus AI, the HKMA issued a stablecoin license, and also opened the door for tokenized secondary market trading. Polygon burned 100 million POL, accounting for 1% of the total supply, and plans to continue burning.
Just finished registering a foreign car at the checkpoint, now watching ETH. Current price 2551.7, a rebound test after a downtrend, the MACD golden cross is a false signal. The MA21 and MA55 above are tightly suppressing, bulls have no volume at all. The liquidation map is even clearer, a large amount of short stop-loss liquidity is stacked between 2560 and 2600, pulling up in this range is a bull trap, funds are clearly shorting on rallies. 2580 will likely face resistance and fall back, support is seen between 2480 and 2500 below.
Don't hesitate in trading. Light short positions near 2551, add once at 2580, stop loss above 2610. First target 2500, second target 2480. Don't be greedy with longs, a rebound to resistance is an escape opportunity, not a bottom-fishing signal.
Just checked the underground garage, no issues. Same with this ETH wave, don't hold on stubbornly, short when you should.
$ETH
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
@OKX星球 500 bucks challenge: The road to recovering 160k
Day 9
Live trading challenge diary
1. Capital status
Yesterday's capital: 789
Current capital: 863
(Feeling unwell, didn't trade aggressively, survived with a few short trades, small profit of 30u, satisfied)
2. Today's trade review (with screenshots)
· $W: Correctly timed a short with the trend, entry average price 0.027967, closed at 0.026436. 20x full position, directly grabbed +107.12% return, although only earned 2.67u, the win rate feels great, took the profit and ran!
· $CHIP: Honestly thought this coin would still pump, but once the market gave an opportunity, decisively shorted hard with 20x full position! Entered at 0.06688, closed at 0.0642, secured +78.58% profit (+6.30u). Proved that not blindly believing but following the market to short hard is the right move.
· $MAGIC: Perfectly executed the "short on rebound" strategy, like picking up free money. Shorted in at 0.12768, closed at 0.12727, although only +5.07% profit (+1.58u), took a few points and ran, no hesitation.#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ TSMC Earnings Highlights
TSMC's Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 50%,
though this data had already been disclosed in advance, and the market had anticipated it.
The October 15 earnings report will focus on three main points:
First, gross margin, to see if the high-premium AI orders can offset the factory construction costs;
Second, the full-year performance guidance and Q4 revenue situation;
Third, the scale of capital expenditure in 2027, used to gauge the company's outlook on future AI demand.
Currently, market expectations are already well priced in, so even if the earnings data is impressive,
if management takes a conservative stance, it is easy for a "good news already priced in" scenario to occur.
In the crypto market context, this news is only a secondary sentiment factor,
not a core force determining the overall market trend. $xTSM $BTC #Institutions Keep Positioning, Why Is BTC Still Under Pressure?
The leader has something to say
Institutions are positioning, yet BTC remains under pressure.
Morgan Stanley's MSBT holds about 10,639 BTC, and Strive also plans to continue expanding treasury allocations through preferred stock financing. Long-term capital is indeed coming in.
But short-term capital is withdrawing. From October 7 to 8, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $731 million. On the 9th, only $21.13 million flowed back in, less than 3% of the outflow in the previous two days. The speed of money coming in can't keep up with the speed of money leaving.
BTC has dropped from 87,000 to around 83,000. US Treasury yields and energy prices remain high, and CPI is about to be released. Institutional allocation is a slow variable; short-term selling pressure is a fast variable. Slow money can't catch fast money, so the price can't hold.
My long BTC position at 83,000 is still open, and the short at 86,500 is also still open. Hedging both sides with light positions. No one-sided bets before CPI release. Long stop loss at 81,500, target 86,000. Short stop loss at 87,500, target 84,500 to 85,000. Whichever target is reached first, reduce that position first.
Short-term outlook is consolidation; mid-term waiting for direction. ETF fund flow is key: if inflows continue to increase, hold longs. If outflows continue, watch short targets. Don't chase highs or kill lows; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $MAGIC Hormuz hasn't opened yet, the Saudi airport got bombed, and the oil tanker was hit as well. According to the old script, gold would have flown up by now. But XAUT dropped 4 points in a month, and today it fluctuated less than 1 point all day long, watching it almost made me fall asleep.
At the 4168 price, several moving averages are all crowded around 4180, and it's just sticking close to the lower side. RSI is 37, neither bulls nor bears have much strength. The dollar is still above 102, the 10-year US Treasury yield is holding above 5.2, so it's hard for gold to shine.
Everyone is waiting for Wednesday; only when the CPI data drops will there be some movement in this stagnant water.
For those still holding XAUT, are you still keeping this shield? Or do you think it won't hold up this time?
$XAUT #跟着OKX打卡2049 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
When macro and technical signals conflict, which one do you trust?
Many trades face this dilemma: macro is bearish, but the candlestick forms a beautiful bullish pattern; or macro is positive, but the technical side keeps breaking down.
My view: prioritize respecting the macro backdrop, use technicals for timing, and when they conflict, the best choice is to stay out of the market.
Macro determines the underlying trend direction. Big forces like US Treasury bonds, interest rates, and geopolitics can easily break short-term candlestick patterns. Beautiful technical charts can always be traps for bulls or bears.
The value of technicals is that when they align with macro, they help us find precise entry points and set stop losses; once contradictions appear, market bulls and bears diverge greatly, leading to more volatility and false breakouts.
Trading approach: during macro and technical divergence, avoid heavy positions in contracts. If you must participate, only use very small positions with strict stop losses, and do not hold losing trades. Wait for both signals to resonate for higher probability opportunities.$FIL perpetual 50x long position, opened at 1.0948, now at 1.2362, floating profit +645.78%.
The logic is very simple: repeatedly testing the bottom near 1.0948 without breaking it, each pullback is quickly pushed up, the lower shadows are getting longer, and the selling pressure is clearly exhausted. Wait for a volume breakout, confirm on the right side, then go long. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1.05. This wave of rise was quite smooth, giving no chance for a pullback, profits directly multiplied more than 6 times.
Now moving the stop loss to 1.20 to lock in profits. If there is a volume breakout above 1.35, can hold on for more. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The current market overall shows a structurally differentiated trend, with significant strength differences among various coins. There is no clear short-term one-sided trend, with the overall pattern dominated by range-bound oscillation repair and long-short battles.
$BTC is currently priced around 84,000, in a sandwich consolidation pattern under pressure from both above and below. The 83,000 level coincides with the average ETF holding cost and historical technical highs, serving as the short-term key dividing line of strength and weakness. The 84,000-85,000 range above is a core area of dense holdings, with more than half of the positions concentrated here; without volume, it is difficult to break through. The 77,000 level below shows sufficient on-chain accumulation and is the strongest support at this stage. Market expectations for a decline in October are relatively strong, bullish momentum is lacking, and the short term is mainly about oscillating to digest selling pressure.
$ETH is significantly weaker than the broader market, with continuous net outflows from spot ETFs and obvious pressure on the chart. The 2,550-2,600 range presents heavy resistance, with stubborn selling pressure from existing holdings. Even though market leverage has fallen to low levels, active selling still suppresses rebounds. At this stage, it is only a technical repair; without effectively breaking through resistance, it is likely to retest the 2,470-2,400 support range.
$ZEC relies on privacy narratives plus on-chain mechanism upgrades to maximize elasticity, but increased ETF redemptions and concentrated profit-taking at high levels continue to amplify short-term correction risks. Blindly chasing highs at elevated levels is strictly prohibited. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ 📊 Crypto Quick Review: FIL Takes the Lead, NEAR Gathers Momentum, DOGE and Others Reverse
NEAR: Current price around $5.91, up slightly 0.93% in 24 hours. If 4.69 holds, there is still room to rise; resistance zone at 5.3-5.6, only above $6 is considered strong. 🚀
$DOGE: $0.0868, down slightly 0.53% in 24 hours. First reversal signal after long-term adjustment, watch 0.095, 0.098; breaking 0.106 opens upward space. 🐕
$FIL: $1.2329, up 9.46% in 24 hours, the brightest spot today. Due to the end of the founding team's token unlock on October 15, annual new selling pressure may drop by about 75%, funds rushed in early. But after a sharp short-term rise, beware of a pullback as positive news is priced in. 🎯
BTC and ETH have support close below, easy to trigger stop-loss; the market is unstable, altcoin volatility will amplify. ⚠️
Macro: PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6%; Russia relaxes diesel exports, Strait of Hormuz risks still support oil prices; CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face tests. 📉
For market observation only, not investment advice. Crypto markets are volatile, control position size and use stop-loss. 🧊#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 $BTC $ETH During the BTC surge phase, it is crucial to closely monitor the US spot ETF redemption signals. Single-day outflows within $100 million are normal fluctuations and not a cause for panic; single-day outflows exceeding $300-400 million indicate institutions are starting to realize profits in concentration, significantly increasing spot selling pressure.
More critical than single-day data is continuity. If there are net outflows for more than 3 consecutive trading days and cumulative redemptions continue to expand, the sustainability of the rebound rally becomes questionable. After price rises, a large amount of positions being freed up can easily trigger ETF redemptions, creating a "decline—redemption" negative feedback loop.
However, ETF flows have a lagging nature and cannot be used as a sole trading signal; they need to be evaluated in combination with technical support and macro news. Contract market volatility is intense, so it is essential to strictly control position sizes and set stop losses.As soon as the account opens, it feels like a roller coaster. This time, what you really need to watch isn't the CPI itself. Do you also think the market is just waiting for a single number before the data is released? Actually, what's more worth paying attention to is that positions have quietly rotated already. BTC is holding onto profits, ETH is still stuck below the cost line, and LAB's short positions are testing patience. On the surface, it looks like three separate trades going their own ways, but behind it is the same thing: the market is repricing the "interest rate path," not simply waiting for the data to land. My own feeling is very direct: the easiest mistake to make at times like this is treating the data as a directional button. Before CPI and PPI are released, risk appetite often doesn't spread evenly but first contracts to the most certain assets. So BTC is relatively resistant to decline, ETH is weaker, and smaller coins rely more on sentiment. This is no coincidence; funds are reprioritizing. The bullish path is that if inflation data doesn't exceed expectations, the previously suppressed rate cut expectations will warm up, ETH and some altcoins may see a catch-up rally, and risk appetite will spread outward from core assets. The bearish risk is that if the data is hotter, rate hike expectations will rise again, and the first to get hurt are often not BTC but smaller coins with higher leverage and weaker narratives. Positions like LAB's will face amplified tests. Currently, I am focusing on three points: - Whether BTC can continue to hold relative strength, which determines if the sentiment anchor is stable. - Whether ETH can reclaim the key cost zone, which affects altcoin risk appetite. - Whether trading volume cooperates after data release; rebounds without volume usually don't last long. What is truly being traded this round,The current price of 0.002314 is above the Fibonacci 0.5 support level, and the bullish structure remains intact. The liquidation chart shows a massive accumulation of short stop-loss liquidity in the 0.0024 to 0.0026 range, which is the clearest harvesting path in the short term. The price is very likely to spike upward to trigger these stop-loss orders.
I gnawed on half a cold steamed bun by the roadside just enough to swallow it, never taking my eyes off the phone, treating the platform's order reminder sound as mere background noise.
From the order book, there is dense active buying support in the 0.00230 to 0.00232 range, the moving average system maintains a bullish alignment, and volume cooperation is effective. Entry range is set between 0.002290 and 0.002310; a pullback without breaking this range is a buying opportunity. The first take-profit target is 0.002480, and after a breakout, the next target is 0.002580. The stop-loss is set at 0.002240; breaking below indicates a failed bull trap and an unconditional exit.
This position is worth fully loading; just waiting for a stop-loss sweep to repay the car rental deposit owed this week. The market won't wait for the delivery person, but you can watch the market while delivering.
$RSR
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
@OKX星球 $SOL has bounced for four days, but its position is still in the lower half of the range.
▪️ Reported at $112.39 on 10/12, intraday +1.29%, amplitude 2.23% — second largest amplitude among the top ten coins
▪️ 20-day high 124.90, down −10.02%; 20-day low 105.60, up +6.43%
▪️ Position is at 35.2% of the 20-day range, still below 40% after four days of bouncing
▪️ To reach the midpoint, it needs to rise another 2.5%; to reach the upper edge, it needs to rise another 11.1%
▪️ The 20-day moving average at 117.069 is at 59.4% of the range
▪️ 7-day down −7.12%, today +1.29% only recovers 18%; 200-day moving average buffer +29.25%
The divergence is not about how high it has bounced, but that after four days it is still in the lower half of the range.
The rise and fall indicate how far it has moved; the position shows how far it is from the gate. Within the band from 105.60 to 124.90, the price stands at 35%, and the 20-day moving average presses at 59.4% — the first moving average on the recovery path has not been touched yet.
The direction suggests waiting — only talk about recovery after standing above 117.07; losing 105.60 invalidates it.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $MAGIC perpetual 20x long position, opened at 0.12609, currently 0.13227, floating profit +98.02%.
Just betting on a bottom reversal: 0.12609 tested three times without breaking, volume decreasing stepwise, very typical bottom characteristics. Enter at the moment the bullish candle pulls up, never guess the bottom prematurely. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.12. This wave moved very cleanly, almost no pullback, profits smoothly doubled.
For now, hold steady and let the bullets fly a bit. Set 0.131 as the defense line to protect principal safety, wait for a clear signal around 0.14 before deciding to add or reduce, no rush. $ZEC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 AI infrastructure investment accounts for an average of 3.6% of the US GDP annually, with off-balance-sheet financing hiding $1.4 trillion in debt risk
According to the latest research from the Brookings Institution, from 2025 to 2032, the total investment in AI data center construction in the US is expected to reach $10.3 trillion, with an average annual investment accounting for about 3.63% of the US GDP, approximately 1.6 times the peak of 19th-century railroad construction and more than 3 times the boom of internet and fiber optic construction.
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, professor at Columbia Business School, points out that the scale of AI infrastructure investment is unprecedented. Capital expenditures by tech giants such as Meta and Microsoft have exceeded operating cash flow, with more projects turning to leasing, joint ventures, special purpose vehicles, and private credit financing. As a result, some debt is not directly reflected on the balance sheets of tech companies.
Taking Meta's Hyperion data center project as an example, about $30 billion in project assets correspond to $27 billion in debt, with a project-level debt-to-asset ratio reaching 90%. Van Nieuwerburgh estimates that the related financing structures have issued about $1.4 trillion in debt, of which about $700 billion to $800 billion is held by banks.
He warns that if AI demand, revenue, or project progress fall short of expectations, highly leveraged projects may…Will $SNDK continue to head south?!
From the current hourly chart, SanDisk is clearly bearish in the short term. The rebound highs are getting lower and lower, indicating weakening buying power and heavy selling pressure above. There is currently no trend reversal signal; it is still a weak rebound within a downtrend.
Keep in mind that U.S. Treasury yields are rising now, and institutional investors and whales in the market are withdrawing funds to avoid risk.
For those looking to go long, focus on 1530 next. If a stop in the decline and a volume-increasing rebound occur, you can observe whether there is a short-term recovery. If it continues to break below, then the next step is to watch around 1500 to find a position to set up long orders.
For those looking to short, watch the 1620-1590 range on the rebound. If the rebound reaches here but does not continue with increased volume, it is likely just a technical rebound during the downtrend, so you can short at the high level.
Currently, Sister Qin personally leans towards shorting on rebounds! What do you all think? Feel free to discuss 😄
$ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #CPIPPIHikeWatch CPI drops Oct 14, PPI/retail sales Oct 15. Same test as before: hot data pushes October hike odds up, soft data supports a pause.
This is the next real catalyst for the BTC/Gold split i’ve been tracking. Correlation eased from 0.73 to 0.45 after the last hawkish surprise these two prints decide whether that gap widens or closes.
Watching core CPI first. That’s the number that moves yields.
$BTC $XAU Some ingredients are naturally meant to be side dishes; if you insist on serving them as the main course, the first bite should make you want to throw down your chopsticks! $ACH right now is a typical case of "seasoning trying to steal the main dish's spotlight"—in 24H it’s only slightly heated up by 2.12%, but the short-term RSI has already burned up to 65.1, the heat is too much.
Experienced chefs first check the pot’s edge: in the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price is already stuck at 114%, with only 0.3% room left to the upper band; the pot’s edge is scorching, the soup is about to overflow. The mid-term Bollinger Bands also show a high position at 72%, with just 1.3% margin to the upper band. What does this mean? This is the final intense simmering stage, one moment of distraction and it will burn.
My judgment is straightforward—this is a signal to reduce the spice, lower the heat, and reverse. The SELL light is on for a reason. The long-term RSI is only 41.7; the temperature difference between the two periods is over twenty points, a typical "spicy at first, bland later" pattern. This dish’s structure is unstable and can’t withstand another intense stir-fry upwards.
So my trading approach: don’t chase the highs, don’t catch the last ladle of hot oil, wait for a +1.8% rebound foam to rise, then open a short position. It’s like making caramel—you have to wait for the syrup to bubble to that critical point before acting; one second too early is bitter, one second too late is burnt.
📉 Short:
Entry: current price +1.8% (wait for the rebound to settle before entering)
Take Profit 1: entry price -3.4% (taste the saltiness first)
Take Profit 2: entry price -4.7% (take the whole dish off the stove)
Stop Loss: entry price +11.2% (burn warning line, if exceeded, dump the whole pot)
Leverage is something I’ve said before—it’s like super spicy chili. $ACH, a seasoning-level coin, with 3x leverage is a flavor enhancer, with 10x it’s a gut-burning emergency. Mainstream coins are the main dish, altcoins are the seasoning, contracts are the chili peppers. Tonight’s $ACH, I treat it only as a tiny spoonful of seasoning, never as a staple food.
Heat, ratio, timing to take off the stove—if any of these three are off, even the best ingredients become waste.The whole network is calling ETH a stablecoin, but my 5x long position hasn't moved at all
The toughest discipline for a trader is to stay put
ETH $2530, ETF continuous net outflows, funding rate once turned negative, $ETH $BTC stuck at low levels. The whole network calls it a "stablecoin," but my 5x long position remains steady.
It's not that I don't understand the short logic, it's that the shorts are too crowded. ETF outflows, upgrade delays, regulatory troubles—these bearish factors have already been priced in. Traders profit not from information gaps, but from emotional gaps.
My judgment: ETH isn't not rising, it just hasn't had its turn yet. Once a rate cut is confirmed, liquidity will first rush to BTC, then overflow to ETH. On the day ETH/BTC reverses, short covering will be faster than anyone else. 5x leverage just lets me survive until that day without getting shaken out during the volatility.
Three-line strategy:
Isolated margin, 5x, liquidation price set below previous lows.
No adding, no take profit, no rolling over.
Hold when it’s time, don’t hold when it’s not.
I’m not advising you to follow. Different positions, different temperaments. But if you also believe in the cycle, remember: bull markets don’t reward the smart, they reward those who stay put.
ETH, hold on.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产 $CHIP perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.06798, currently at 0.06464, floating profit +98.26%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 0.06798, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.07. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits explode directly.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 0.065 to let profits run. If 0.06 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, exit fully. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ETH perpetual 100x long position, opened at 2505.76, now at 2551.59, floating profit +182.89%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 2500 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was buying support. After confirming the bottom was valid, I decisively went long on the bullish candle. Using 100x leverage, position size pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +182.89%, and the trailing stop has been moved up to 2520. Not greedy, locking in profits first. #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $BTC $STRK At 3 a.m., the ECG of the patient on stage is not flat but shows the RSI soaring to 70.4 — this is tachycardia, not resuscitation, but impending decompensation.
$AAVE is currently priced at $95.24, with a 24-hour volatility of 4.68%. Laymen only look at price changes, but we look at perfusion pressure. The short-term Relative Strength Index has reached 70.4, crossing the overbought red line; the long-term is 55.9, and the sinus rhythm is still present — indicating this is not systemic failure but localized myocardial ischemia: a completely predictable secondary collapse.
The imagery is even more straightforward. In the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price is at 132% position, only 1.1% away from the upper band, but leaving 4.9% space to the lower band. What does this mean? It means the valve orifice has only a thread of blood flow left; every ejection hits the wall. The mid-term Bollinger Bands are at 66%, with 5.8% buffer below and 2.8% above — distal structures are intact, but proximal ones are already compensating.
Diagnosis: No emergency rescue needed, but an early operation is required.
So, no emergency intervention, but elective surgery. Wait for the price to reach $97.99, which is 2.9% above the current price; that is the cutting plane — ligate at the fullest perfusion point, not chase and suture after collapse.
📉 Short position:
Entry: 97.99 (current price +2.9%)
Take Profit 1: 87.10 (-8.5%)
Take Profit 2: 90.03 (-5.5%)
Stop Loss: 109.29 (-14.8%)
First remove the primary lesion at 87.10, which points to a path of -8.5%; if blood flow stabilizes, 90.03 (-5.5%) serves as the secondary debridement point. The real line to hold is 109.29 — 14.8% higher, meaning my diagnosis was wrong, the myocardium is not ischemic but overloaded with perfusion, so immediately close the chest, admit the mistake, and leave the stage.
This calculation is very clear: use a 14.8% blood loss limit to gain an 8.5% removal margin. This is not courage, but an intraoperative tourniquet.
The market never stops beating because of emotions; it only follows its own rhythm, quietly flattening the waveform at the overbought level.$SAND perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.06505, currently at 0.06333, floating profit +132.20%.
The logic is simple: repeatedly pushing up near 0.06505 but failing to break through, every rebound is quickly hammered down, the upper shadows are getting longer, and buying pressure is clearly exhausted. Wait for a volume breakout below support, confirm on the right side, then enter short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 0.067. This drop was quite smooth, giving no chance for a rebound, profits nearly doubled by 1.3 times.
Now moving the stop loss to 0.064 to lock in profits. If the price breaks below 0.06 with volume, can hold a bit longer. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ETH $BTC $ZEC At this position for the two coins, my view is summed up in one word: short
In the past 24 hours, ETH has been moving like a dead fish, the rebound lacks volume, every rally is smashed down, upper shadows keep appearing one after another, and the 4-hour resistance level has been tested several times but can't be broken. What do the bulls have to break through? Just talk?
Bears dominate, the downward adjustment is non-negotiable. Don't comfort yourself with daily support; if the daily support really can't hold, then it's not a small correction. The weekly midline at 2168 must be visited at least, and it might even dip deeper.
Don't try to catch the bottom, catching the bottom is like catching a flying knife
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Gold ETFs are attracting record inflows, but high interest rates continue to suppress gold prices. These two trends seem contradictory, but they actually reflect two different groups.
Pharaoh says directly: long-term funds are buying up, while short-term funds are selling off.
According to the World Gold Council data, global gold ETF inflows reached $10 billion in September, totaling $31 billion in Q3, a historic record. Global gold holdings increased by 67 tons in September, reaching a record 4,256 tons. SPDR Gold Trust holdings increased for two consecutive days.
So why is the gold price still falling? Because the high interest rate knife is too sharp. The 30-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5.7%, and the 10-year real yield has risen to nearly 2.85%, an 18-year high.
Pharaoh translates for you: European pension funds, Asian central banks, and family offices are buying on dips, betting on fiat currency depreciation ten years from now; hedge funds are shorting in the futures market, profiting from monthly price spreads. One group is buying "insurance," the other is trading "spreads."
What does this mean for BTC? The 90-day correlation between gold and Bitcoin has reached 0.58, the highest since 2020. BTC is being priced as a "leveraged version of gold." Gold ETFs are being snapped up during price drops, indicating that "hard asset hedging" funds are still active. BTC is currently pressured by US Treasury yields in the short term, but its long-term logic aligns with gold.
Remember, gold is bought as insurance for ten years from now, not for tomorrow's price spreads. $BTC #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $ETH On the evening of 10.12, $ETH is currently priced at 2552, with a volume of 550 and a daily average of 73.
The daily support has stabilized; barring any surprises, it is set to challenge the resistance point at 2716. It seems to be gradually moving upward now.
Of course, a pullback cannot be ruled out, especially with the ongoing news about interest rate hikes. A slight pullback before moving up again is normal. But it must not break below 2500, or else there will be a wait. The goal is to take profits once this range fluctuation ends.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验