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$BNB Damn it! This BNB market manipulation is making my scalp tingle, with the dog whales at 784 poking back and forth, clearly trying to clear leverage.💡
From a pure capital perspective, the support orders around 784.6 are as dense as a city wall; every time it drops, it's instantly eaten up. This isn't something retail investors can pull off. The resistance is between 798 and 805; once there's a volume breakout, it will head straight for the previous high.
My strategy is simple: buy in batches around 784.6, set stop loss below 775, and accept the loss if it breaks. Don't go heavy, don't all-in; this market is all about who has the strongest nerves.
If you want to follow, place your orders on the lower side of the market card; don't wait for the price to rise before chasing. Are you going to lay this trap or not? 👇👇👇A certain CEX has once again suspended BRC-20 withdrawals.
Retail investors don't care how nicely you write your announcements; if there are coins in the account but you can't withdraw them, what's the difference from having nothing?
Usually, everyone buys and sells within the CEX ledger, but when it comes to actual withdrawals, once the switch is turned off, everyone becomes obedient.
So now I increasingly feel that the UniHexa path is the right one.
BRC-20 and Runes are originally things on Bitcoin, so why should CEXs decide the price every day?
For your own coins, you still need your own platform. $ORDI A friend who trades asked me last night: What's the big event next week?
I said, check the calendar, earnings reports are basically empty, just that September meeting minutes early Thursday morning.
He was stunned: That's it?
Yes, that's it.
What can really shake the market this week isn't some data, but the recording of a Fed insider argument that's about to be released.
The previous nonfarm payroll was very weak, but long-term US Treasury yields kept pushing up, a tug of war.
If the minutes show strong disagreements, the market will have to rethink the rate hike path.
To be clear, people aren't afraid of hikes, they're afraid the Fed itself hasn't figured it out.
At times like this, it's easiest to get whipsawed by news.
My stance: no rush to take sides.
Wait for that release at 2 a.m. Thursday, see which way the dollar and Treasuries move first, then decide whether to follow.
Guessing now is just asking for trouble.
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 $ETH Friday night the non-farm payrolls came out: September added only 29,000 jobs, while the market expected about 90,000. July was even revised down to negative 10,000. According to relayed reports, after the data was released, crypto, stocks, and gold all strengthened briefly, while oil prices dropped more than 3%. My first reaction after reading this was that this data is very much like my love life: expected 90,000, actual 29,000, plus a "previous data was also wrong" revision. The logic of weak employment is straightforward: the economy weakens, the space for rate hikes narrows, the market starts to think about rate cuts, and risk assets naturally rejoice. However, there is another line here: according to Twitter relays, the G7 emergency energy meeting decided to release 100 million barrels of oil reserves over four months, prioritizing diesel, indicating that supply shocks are still ongoing. Inflation, this former guest, hasn't really gone far. So now it's a very awkward situation: employment is worsening, prices haven't improved, the Fed wants to help but dares not. This is called a stagflation narrative. It's like in relationships, wanting both security and freedom, pleasing neither side. So how does the crypto world see this? My observations are threefold: First, is BTC a risk asset or a hedge? After this round of data, the answer is "a bit of both." The strength on the day shows rate cut expectations dominate, but once the stagflation narrative is confirmed, it will still be sold off first as a risk asset. Second, don't change your life plan because of one candlestick. On the day of the data, BTC was about $84,700, ETH about $2,686, both rising less than 1%. The market is actually very restrained, much more emotionally stable than us. Third, in a bull market, do only two things: pick targets with clear and strong fundamentals, then hold them. Don't randomly buy a bunch of selfSolana had 14.2 billion non-voting transactions in Q3, a 45% quarter-on-quarter increase, which is the strongest underlying data in the public chain sector. The AI sector rose 54% in September, while the market average was only 24%, indicating that capital is flowing to the strongest narratives. On the SEC side, Atkins and Uyeda have signaled a push for compliance and openly criticized enforcement-style regulation, which is a sign of a softening stance.
STRK is currently priced at 0.05518, with a bullish trend already established and a volume breakout past previous structures. But the problem is: the current price is right at short-term resistance, with very low short position liquidation density above, lacking liquidity to push higher. The technical indicators show clear overbought conditions.
I just put my thermos on the windowsill and glanced at the market again.
Chasing longs at this position is like catching a falling knife. The short position liquidation cluster is above 0.056; only a true breakout there has room to run. The more likely scenario now is a pullback to 0.051–0.053 to absorb liquidity, followed by low-volume consolidation or a retracement confirmation before organizing an attack.
In terms of operation, do not chase longs at the current price. Wait for a pullback to the 0.051–0.053 range to scale in longs gradually, with a stop loss below 0.049. The first take-profit target is 0.056; if broken, look towards 0.058–0.060. If it directly breaks above 0.056 with volume and the pullback does not break support, you can add positions accordingly and move the stop loss up. Those without positions should not rush; wait for the price to give an entry point.
Someone is honking in the distance; I’ll go check it out.
$STRK
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
@OKX星球 The market was almost at a standstill today.
Trading volume was 45.6 billion, down 62.67% in one day. Liquidations reached 54.31 million, down 90.66%.
But open interest only dropped by 0.62%.
No money moved at all; it just froze.
As usual, here’s the conclusion first: it’s not that no one is playing, everyone is just waiting.
Volume contraction has two types. One is capital withdrawal, the other is everyone waiting. The difference is seen in open interest—open interest drops in the first case, but not in the second.
Right now, it’s the second type.
What’s more interesting is the long-short ratio. Yesterday it was 49% long, 51% short; today it flipped to 52.87% long, 47.13% short.
This means shorts are withdrawing, not longs entering. Withdrawal is risk aversion, entry is aggression—two completely different things.
So I won’t take a directional stance here.
Let me share something personal. The day before yesterday I judged that "G7 reserve release is a fake positive," oil prices couldn’t be suppressed, long-term yields wouldn’t come down, and BTC wouldn’t rise. Yesterday, the price hovered around 84,800 all day without moving. My judgment wasn’t proven wrong.
But I’m not happy either, because I have no position and am waiting empty-handed until Monday.
The reason is simple: weekend prices are set by "no one." Using them to make decisions is like treating noise as a signal.
ZEC is up 0.89% today, having stopped its decline. But yesterday’s largest liquidation order of 4.5 million hit it hard. A one-day rebound doesn’t mean much; don’t rush to buy the dip.
BTC at 83,858 is still the lifeline. If it holds, there’s still room to talk next week; if it breaks, 82,000 is next.
Let me ask you directly: at Monday’s open, do you plan to increase your position, reduce it, or do nothing?
#US-Iran tensions continue, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves #US September nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, capital heat cools down
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Disclaimer: The above is personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; please manage your risks accordingly. The entire network's liquidations evaporated 90.65% in one day, leaving only 54.36 million USD.
Yesterday it was still 349 million, today just a fraction remains. 41,181 people were liquidated, and the market didn't even blink.
Let's talk structure first. In yesterday's 24-hour liquidations, longs liquidated 306 million USD, shorts only 42.7 million — the bulls were being cleaned out. Today it's completely reversed: 24h shorts liquidated 30.66 million, longs 23.7 million, shorts liquidated more. The liquidation structure flipped twice in two days. This isn't a trend, it's leverage fighting itself, no one has direction.
The most striking data point: the largest single liquidation in 24 hours across the network wasn't Bitcoin, nor any crypto, but an XYZ:CRWD-USD contract on Hyperliquid for 1.9894 million USD. A single stock-type contract. With US markets closed over the weekend, it was liquidated nearly 2 million in a liquidity vacuum. Crypto itself has no volatility left to trade, money is chasing volatility elsewhere.
The market itself is very quiet. BTC 84,778, down only 0.10% in 24h; ETH 2,691 (+0.39%), SOL 120.22 (+0.45%), ZEC 1,313.58 (+0.81%). BTC's daily range was 84,510 to 85,021, only 511 USD up and down, a 0.6% amplitude. I haven't seen such a narrow day recently.
But quiet doesn't mean safe. Look at volume: OKX 24h volume only 45.692 billion USD, down 62.67%; CoinGlass total network 85.099 billion, down 65.55%; mainstream coin sector turnover cut by 73.08%. Planet discussion heat 1,720, down 52%. Volume is collapsing, price is static — this is a false calm after market makers withdrew, not market composure.
The capital side isn't on the bulls' side either. BTC ETF daily net value is still +2.4 million, but net outflow over the past 30 days expanded to 258 million USD — yesterday was 201 million, another 57 million left in one day.
No new macro developments. September nonfarm payrolls increased only 29,000, October hold probability 85%; 10Y US Treasury still hanging at 5.277%. The real key is the September CPI on 10/14, the only CPI in the October rate decision window and the last card before the 10/28 decision.
Interestingly, the expected market has already given its answer: Polymarket's implied probability of BTC hitting 100,000 before 2027 is only 39%, Kalshi gives a year-end closing price of 86,240. The market consensus is "sideways," not "bull."
My judgment is straightforward: 84,510 is the weekend bottom, 85,021 is the top, whoever breaks first sets the direction. Don't use high leverage to guess before then — today's top liquidation is a stock contract, even professional players are being harvested by liquidity.
Monday open, up or down?
#BTC #ETH #SOL #ZEC #MarketAnalysis
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC
The above is personal opinion only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please control your position size and bear your own risk. Why can't Core rally? Let's be brutally honest
1. The chip structure is distorted, and the weight is frightening
Core's chips are highly concentrated in the hands of top addresses. Addresses beyond the top 100 only account for 2.67%, meaning chips are not in retail hands. The problem is that this "distribution" process itself is selling pressure.
2. The whales have long since left, not that they haven't
CORE has fallen from its peak to around $0.02, a drop of over 99.8%. Whale selling of 3 million coins triggered a chain liquidation, causing a single-day plunge of over 50%, and liquidity dried up immediately. The whales are not "yet to rally," they have already sold out. Those left holding heavy positions are all retail investors and trapped holders.
3. Retail investors are too noisy, so the main force is unwilling to enter
The Core community atmosphere is extremely divided; some shout for ten-thousand-fold gains, others shout for zero. This state of nationwide attention and heightened emotions is precisely when the main force is most unwilling to enter—the weight is too heavy, floating chips too many, and the cost of pumping is extremely high. Coins truly chosen by the main force are often in a phase of being ignored. $BTC $ZEC $CORE #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Nonfarm payrolls missed expectations.
Gold fell.
BTC fell.
Where's the promised script?
Torn up.
Nonfarm +29,000.
Expected 90,000.
Previous value was revised down.
First reaction:
Employment is weak.
Economy is cooling.
Probability of rate hikes drops.
US Treasury yields ↓.
Gold and BTC should rise.
But when the US stock market opened,
yields went back up.
Not a contradiction.
The script changed.
First layer: interest rate expectation trading.
Second layer: inflation + term premium trading.
Crude oil strengthened.
Fiscal deficit is scary.
Long-term US Treasuries are being sold off.
Yields ↑.
Gold and BTC:
Who did I offend?
So tonight:
Poor data ≠ guaranteed easing.
The market is trading the second layer.
The first layer is a fairy tale.
The second layer is the bill.
Just venting, don't get worked up.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 First look at the support, then talk about the reversal
$BICO is the most positive among the three. The price rose from about 0.0212 in the early morning to 0.0223 in the afternoon, an increase of about 5%, indicating that the low position is not without buyers. In the short term, 0.022 can be used as an observation line: if the price does not break below this support, the recovery may continue; if it only bounces briefly and then falls below, it is too early to talk about a reversal. The trend has been weak in the past week, so expectations should not be raised too quickly. First, see how much of this rebound can hold.
$SUI still requires patience. The midday low of 1.146 is below last night’s 1.185, indicating that the previous rebound did not hold. If the price moves up later, the first test is whether it can recover last night’s level; if it approaches but then falls back, it is not advisable to expect a new upward move immediately. A large monthly increase does not mean the short-term correction will end quickly.
$LINK returned to around 14, down about 3.5% in 24 hours, with cautious sentiment. 14 is a round number, and a few points above or below are not enough to determine direction. More importantly, whether the rebound can return to around 14.2 last night and continue upward; if even this recovery is difficult, it is better to wait and see. Before the market confirms, there is no need to prematurely anticipate an increase.
Overall, all three are in the stage of "first verifying support, then judging recovery." BICO is slightly stronger but not reversed; SUI and LINK still need to observe key levels. Avoid guessing direction; focus more on whether the price can hold the positions it should.A spot ETF recorded its first weekly net outflow of $93.6 million since listing, just two weeks after a $98.2 million inflow, nearly reversing the move.
Numbers first: This is the net flow for this week; the product's total holdings still stand at about $750 million, down from a peak of $915 million, but not gone.
More importantly, look at the cumulative net inflow: it surged to about $271 million in two months, now retreating to $213 million—the money just changed hands, the supply hasn't decreased at all.
Comparing horizontally in the same week, its inflow and outflow account for about one-eighth of its own holdings, while Bitcoin is only 0.08%, and Ethereum about one-sixteenth.
Flow reversal does not equal capital withdrawal; don't mistake timing for causality. Wait until daily net redemptions shrink below $10 million and cumulative net inflows stop falling before discussing the trend. $ZECDowntrend 📉 Must short Ethereum! Public order!
Technical aspect: Sell wall pressure on top, momentum has already faded
2748 is stuck in the resistance zone between 2740 and 2758, with 2754 as short-term strong resistance, and 2784 at the Fibonacci 0.382 level. Previously, ETH surged to 2749 then dropped, failing to hold above 2740, indicating solid selling pressure above.
More importantly, the momentum. The MACD histogram has converged to zero, the fast and slow lines almost overlap, this is not neutral, it’s a buy exhaustion. RSI near 64 is not overbought but already high; a slight pullback could bring it back to the neutral range of 50 to 55. The daily pivot point is at 2702, the current price is barely holding above it; once broken, the short-term direction will become clear.
News aspect: Non-farm benefits exhausted, ETF funds are withdrawing
Non-farm data increased by only 29,000, superficially positive, but ETH surged to 2749 then fell back. The script of buying expectations and selling facts played out again. More troubling is the capital outflow. ETH spot ETF has had net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $117.8 million. Institutional buying is weakening, which is not a good sign. In a volatile market, don't rush; patiently wait for opportunities. Bitcoin has been fluctuating between 84500 and 85000 in the past 24 hours, while Ethereum ranges narrowly between 2675 and 2695. Observe more and act less for now. $BTC
To catch the swings, wait for prices near the boundaries. For Bitcoin, try buying on dips between 84000 and 84500, and selling on highs near 86000; for Ethereum, buy on dips between 2650 and 2670, and sell on highs between 2730 and 2750.
Volatility is very low now, so avoid random trades and be patient. When prices approach target levels, act decisively—don't hesitate. Missing out is better than making mistakes.
Without any major news driving a one-sided move, stay dormant like a cobra, then strike decisively at the right points. Don't expect to get rich overnight; take profits step by step.
Each Bitcoin swing captures 800 to 1500 points, Ethereum 30 to 50 points. One to two opportunities per day are enough. Be patient, manage risk, and steadily lock in profits! #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $DOGE 📡 DOGE-1 / IM-3 Launch Status Bulletin (Latest Verification)
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🚀 Launch Status
Project Latest Status Source
IM-3 (Primary Mission) NET Q1 2027, no official T-0 launch time NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) Task List + Intuitive Machines Official Update
DOGE-1 (Carrying CubeSat) Still listed as IM-3 payload, no independent official T-0; previously circulated "September 14, 2026" was marketing rhetoric, now expired and invalid Intuitive Machines Mission Manual / SpaceX Launch Manifest
Conclusion: Compared to last execution, the launch window has no substantial change → No update currently.
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💱 DOGE Market Reaction (Risk Warning)
• Price Level: DOGE recent trading range is about $0.105–$0.112, down approximately 15–20% from the September narrative peak, but above the July low.
• Correlation Observation: Current price drivers are mainly the X platform integrated payment narrative + macro risk appetite; the lunar landing/IM-3 launch expectation’s marginal catalyst effect on the coin price continues to weaken—the market has basically priced this event as a "long-term uncertainty event" rather than a near-term catalyst.
• Risk Reminder: If IM-3 later officially announces T-0 or the launch is postponed to 2027 Q2+, it may trigger short-term narrative speculation spikes, but sustainability is doubtful; conversely, if the mission is canceled or DOGE-1 is removed as payload, narrative support will be completely cleared.
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📌 Next Key Milestones
• NASA CLPS Quarterly Review (expected January 2026): will confirm whether IM-3 maintains Q1 launch target
• SpaceX Launch Pad Scheduling (SLC-40): IM-3 is currently assigned to this pad, but specific slot window is not public
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Information Sources: NASA CLPS Dashboard, Intuitive Machines Investor Relations, SpaceX Mission Manifest (information publicly available as of 2026-10-04)The essence of trading is risk control, not chasing profit on every trade. Yet 99% of traders stumble on stop-losses. Why is stop-loss so difficult? 1. We all hate admitting losses; it feels like failure, but the bigger failure is letting losses worsen. 2. Staring at account drawdowns, always thinking about breaking even. This mindset is scarier than the loss itself. 3. Lack of clear stop-loss rules leads to trading being completely controlled by emotions. Stop-loss is not failure; it’s your protective weapon. Trade with light positions, reduce stop-loss pressure, write stop-loss points into your trading plan, and enforce them strictly. Every time you skip a stop-loss, see the result and expose the mask of emotions with your trading journal.The so-called "institutions have fled" is mostly clickbait. After such a long rally, with ETF net inflows exceeding 3 billion, taking profits on some of the positive momentum is just buying on expectations and selling on facts—this is normal capital rotation, not a collapse of faith.
Looking at the technicals: BTC has dropped from 87,000 to around 84,000, ETH fell from 2,770 to 2,668, ZEC dropped over 3% in a single day, and on the hourly chart, it's all sharp cuts. But looking at the RSI: BTC's RSI6 has fallen to 32.7, ETH to 31.5, both approaching extreme oversold territory. Prices have deviated too far from the moving averages, so a technical rebound could emerge at any time.
So my view is straightforward: this is the main force sharpening their knives, not the bull market leaving. The purpose of the sharp drop is to shake out high-leverage and late-buying retail investors. Chasing shorts at this level is handing over heads to the rebound; cutting losses here is offering blood-stained chips with both hands.
Markets don’t only rise without falling, nor fall without rising. The real difference is not who runs fastest, but who can hold on during panic.
Stay steady; only by surviving do you earn the right to talk about a bull market. 🔷 $ANIME : token from Azuki
• Token of the Azuki project (top NFT collection)
• Launch January 2025
• Bridge to the global anime community
• Supply: 10B, circulating ~5.54B
• Market cap ~$19M
• Plans: series, games, merch
🧠 Strong Azuki brand, but $19M with 10B tokens = skepticism. Will take off when media products appear
⚠️ Risks: NFT narrative, emission
❓ Will it become a cultural phenomenon?👇On the non-farm payroll night, BTC and ETH experienced a surge followed by a pullback. The US September non-farm data missed expectations and previous values were revised down, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Market concerns over interest rates eased temporarily, and risk appetite briefly increased. BTC peaked near 87300 before facing pressure and pulling back, with a low around 83900; ETH weakened in sync, giving back intraday gains. Additionally, spot ETFs simultaneously turned to outflows, indicating a decline in capital enthusiasm.
From the chart structure perspective, the bullish trend has not been broken, and there are no new short-term negative factors. The current pullback is more likely a consolidation move. It is recommended to avoid chasing highs and patiently wait for a stable retracement before positioning long.
Key price levels for reference:
• $BTC: Support zone at 82500-83500, resistance zone at 86500-87500. If a valid breakout occurs, the upper target is 88500-90500.
• $ETH: Support zone at 2620-2680, stop-loss set at 2570 (exit if broken), upper targets at 2760-2820-2920. China's innovative drug overseas expansion accelerates: From September 28 to 29, three major licensing deals were made within 48 hours, with upfront payments totaling over $700 million and a potential total value of approximately $6.13 billion — Hengrui Medicine licensed the rights outside Greater China for the oral GLP-1/GIP dual-target drug HRS-1596 to Novo Nordisk (upfront $300 million, potential total up to $2.6 billion), Shanghai Sipru granted global rights for the KRAS G12D inhibitor SPR2015 to Merck (upfront $400 million, potential total up to $2.13 billion), and AstraZeneca made a $2 billion strategic investment to hold overseas rights of Kangfang's bispecific antibody through Summit; on September 30, Hengrui's Hong Kong shares rose over 10% in a single day. This is a structural signal of the pharmaceutical sector taking over during the tech downturn.A certain CEX has completely stopped BRC-20 withdrawals.
People in the community have already started asking: is this just routine maintenance, or is there an actual issue with BRC-20 reserves?
No one can draw a direct conclusion right now, but for retail investors, it's actually simple—just because the tokens can be traded in your account doesn't mean you can withdraw them on-chain now.
This is also a very interesting issue with BRC-20.
The assets are clearly inscribed on Bitcoin, and although there have been massive transactions in the past, they have long been circulating within the CEX's internal ledger. You can see some reserves on-chain, but not the full liabilities. It's hard to fully reconcile how much has been sold on paper versus how much actual supply exists.
When withdrawals are open, no one cares. Once the switch is turned off, the problem immediately surfaces: do you actually own coins on-chain, or just a number in the exchange's account?
So, I increasingly find the UniHexa approach interesting.
The Bitcoin ecosystem no longer has to revolve solely around CEX order books. BRC-20 and Runes are native Bitcoin assets; being able to trade, circulate, and form depth within their own ecosystem is a more natural state.
Especially for top BRC-20 tokens, price discovery doesn't necessarily have to rely only on CEX.
At the very least, a single withdrawal announcement shouldn't scare the entire market.
$ORDI $BTC is again close to 85K, but the direction is still not decided by a single small bullish candle. Kraken's public market shows about 84.78K, with a 24-hour range of approximately 84.51K–85.03K; the price is near the upper boundary but without significant volume increase. I currently treat this as boundary probing and do not equate a short-term rise directly with a trend breakout.
My key decision points are only two steps: closing above 85K and holding on a pullback before considering an extension to 86.2K; if it falls back below 84.5K, I will treat it as a weak recovery and wait for a rebound confirmation first. There is not enough risk-reward ratio between 84.5K and 85K, so I do not chase price in the middle nor change my discipline based on isolated $CRO bullish signals.
I pay more attention to whether volume keeps up and whether the pullback shrinks in volume. Will you wait for confirmation at 85K, or first see if 84.5K can hold? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.1.375 trillion check sparks controversy, $ETH +0.6% stands at 2691
Last night, Trump promised to distribute $5,000 to every adult citizen nationwide funded by tariff revenues, totaling 1.375 trillion dollars. The feasibility sparked heated debate, yet $ETH accepted it all with a 24h +0.6% gain.
$ETH current price is 2691.37, range 2672.59–2693.56. I'm directly bullish—after the event, it moved from 2686.87 to 2691.87, +0.19%, pricing the big check as zero.
First, market phase is offensive, breadth 51/17; daily RSI 60.5 is relatively strong, +9.61% in the last 30 days, upward structure intact.
Second, funding rate 2.777e-05 is neutral, long-short account ratio 2.8595, sentiment not overheated.
Third, 24h volume 207,485,710 USDT, volume ratio 0.274 shows reduced volume pushing up, breakout lacks catalyst.
Resistance above: 2694 (24h high), then 2697.79, 2706.0.
Support below: 2686.54, 2673.13, further down daily MA30 at 2587.
Break above 2694 targets 2706; fall below 2673 requires re-evaluation of bullish logic.
Enter long at 2691, take profit at 2706, stop loss below 2673. Like and follow, will alert you immediately if 2694 breaks.
$ETH $BTCConsolidating all day, the most fragile thing isn't actually the price, but the patience of leverage. Do you also have that feeling: the position is correct, but your heartbeat can't keep up with the candlesticks? I've been watching BTC and ETH all day, barely moving, and the long positions in my hands feel like they've been paused. I say I hold through the bull market, but the longer the consolidation lasts, the more anxiety grows on its own. What really unsettles people isn't the drop, but not knowing whether it will go up or down, having no anchor in mind. Today ZEC dropped 4 points, clearly weak. When small coins weaken first, it often reflects a contraction in risk appetite. If it continues to be hammered, the sentiment might transmit to mainstream and altcoins, especially those relying on narratives to support valuation without spot buying support. But from another perspective, consolidation itself is doing something. It's consuming leverage, washing out those chasing highs, and piling stop-loss orders at both ends. In derivatives structure, this kind of low-volume narrow-range oscillation usually means volatility is suppressed to a low level, and once there's a catalyst, the direction will be chosen quickly. A breakout upwards will see short covering amplify the rise; a breakdown downwards will accelerate long liquidation and further decline. So the key now isn't guessing direction, but seeing who gets squeezed out first. The bullish path is: BTC holds key support, ETH follows with a catch-up rally, ZEC stops falling and stabilizes, indicating selling pressure is local, not systemic. The bearish risk is: small coins continue weakening, contract open interest doesn't decrease, funding rates remain high, then the longer the consolidation, the higher the chance of a downward spike. Unrealized profits are hard to realize, losses come fast, this feeling itself is the market reminding you that rhythm is more important than#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
In the mid-stage of a bull market, holding onto your chips is the real skill
In the mid-stage of a bull market, rotation is normal, and shakeouts are inevitable. The six trump cards—BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, LINK, OP—are not just trend followers; they are the backbone of Web3. With strong capital and solid narratives, once chips are shaken out, the second half often ends with just regret.
The approach is just three steps:
1. Hold your chips. Core positions remain as steady as a mountain to avoid being left behind. The biggest fear in the mid-stage of a market is not the shakeout itself, but realizing you’re empty-handed afterward.
2. Rotate. Flexible positions follow sector switches to capture catch-up gains; take profits partially into stablecoins and wait for pullbacks to re-enter. Rotation is seasoning, not the main course.
3. Select during sharp drops. Sharp drops are often due to leverage liquidations and emotional venting. If the logic hasn’t changed, gradually buy back strong assets—don’t go all in at once. Keep cash and composure.
Remember a few phrases: don’t panic sell during drops, don’t get greedy during rises. Chips are the foundation, rotation is the branches and leaves—don’t confuse the two. Sharp drops in a bull market test not your insight but your position management.
Steady progress｜Bullish but not fanatical, bearish but not panicked, positions as shield, patiently awaiting the cycle’s gifts.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Watching Big Brother Maji's billion-level rapid position adjustment, switching positions back and forth, this swing trading strategy is worth a thorough review.
When the price rises, reduce positions to lock in profits first; when it falls, look for opportunities to test positions. The speed of position adjustment is maxed out, never locking positions rigidly throughout.
$BTC
Initially held 536 coins, decisively cut down to 369 coins after a slight loss, successfully avoiding the pullback; after the market warmed up, increased to 546 coins, then reduced again to 405 coins at the peak to realize profits.
Currently holding 390 coins, average price 84,700, liquidation price 71,600, rhythm control is very delicate.
$ETH
Position rolls between 32,000 and 38,000 coins. Previously had an unrealized profit of 2.18 million USD at a high level, chose to reduce positions to lock in gains; recently added back to 37,000 coins, unrealized profit has significantly retreated, currently at a loss of 380,000.
Daily funding fee reaches as high as 1.18 million USD, liquidation price 2,540, this is the position under the heaviest pressure at this stage.
$HYPE
Replenished from 200,000 coins to 226,000 coins, reduced at a high level to 179,000 coins, successfully turning losses into gains; latest holding is 169,000 coins, unrealized loss of 230,000, liquidation price 57.
💡Personal view:
His operation essentially continuously calibrates risk exposure, shrinking positions when the market is hot, and testing with small positions when volatility expands.
No one can always correctly judge the direction every time; the core advantage of this model is that it never stubbornly holds heavy positions to resist. The largest group of people in this market cycle is called "waiting for a pullback."
$SOL has been rising all the way, and this group's slogan has never stopped—shouting when it goes up, shouting when it moves sideways, as if a pullback is a debt the market owes and must be repaid sooner or later. But when one day the market suddenly drops and the bearish candle appears, those who shouted the loudest before are all silent.
On the day it falls, there is no good news on the screen; all the released information is bad. The group chat changes from showing profits to showing losses, and the deeper the drop, the more panicked the voices become. Those who complained the day before that the rise wasn’t enough now clutch their cash but dare not move.
During the last big drop, I partially filled my order but then withdrew it, always feeling there would be a lower price ahead. When it really dropped to that level, I still didn’t dare to fill it back in. That period later became the cheapest point of the entire month.
To be honest, what they want has never changed: a cheap price. They say they want to buy the dip, but what their body really wants is company. When the pullback truly reaches a suitable position and there’s not a single person around, that kind of silence is more discouraging than the drop itself. So in the end, the day they enter the market is often when it looks safe, but the price at that seemingly safe position has long left the lows. Waiting and waiting, they end up carrying the people ahead at the high point.
Cheap and safe rarely come together. I choose cheap, and having chosen it, I must endure the loneliness of no one supporting it.
I am still bullish on SOL; the market is not over yet. When it drops again, look less at the group and more at the daily chart. Fill orders on the cheap side, and if the chart looks stable, accept the price range where you have to pay more to go long.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
Conclusion first: I am bearish on ETH this round. It's not a blind bearish view; the heavy supply above, waning momentum, and ETF capital withdrawal all overlap.
On the market side, 2740–2758 is a resistance zone, 2754 is a short-term ceiling, and 2784 corresponds to Fibonacci 0.382. Previously, the price surged to 2749 then fell back; it failed to close above 2740, indicating real selling pressure above, not a fake move.
In terms of momentum, the MACD histogram has shrunk to the zero line, the fast and slow lines are almost together, showing obvious lack of buying power. RSI is near 64, not extremely overbought but already hot; a pullback to the neutral zone of 50–55 is not surprising. The daily pivot at 2702 is a short-term watershed; the price is barely holding above it now, and if it breaks below, the short-term direction will lean downward.
On the news front, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, superficially positive, but ETH rose to 2749 then fell back, buyers expected but sellers acted on facts. ETH spot ETF has had net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $117.8 million, institutional buying is weakening.
Execution: Light short position near 2748; stop loss above 2805; if 2805 breaks out with volume, the bearish logic fails, exit unconditionally. Targets are sequentially 2668–2670, 2636, 2576. Position size 10%–15%, leverage no more than 3x.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC The US ISM Manufacturing index stands at 54.5, expanding for the ninth consecutive month, but the price index soars to 77.9. The other half of the stagflation reality: On October 1, ISM released the September manufacturing PMI at 54.5% (August was 54.6%), marking the ninth straight month of expansion; new orders at 55.3 (up 1.6), order backlogs at 56.4 (up 4.6), employment at 52.7 (up 1.5), production at 56.7 (down 1.6), customer inventories at 41.6 (rated "too low" for 24 consecutive months); however, the price index surged 6.8 points from 71.1 to 77.9, reaching a recent high. During the same period, weekly initial jobless claims were 197,000, and Challenger-reported layoffs in September dropped to about 43,000, the lowest in nearly four years. Among negative comments from surveyed companies, 46% mentioned price volatility, 34% tariffs, and 30% the Iran war. Sources: ISM official report, US Department of Labor weekly data.
Transmission chain: Strong orders and backlogs indicate manufacturing "volume" is expanding, supporting the lower bound of profits; a price index of 77.9 means input costs are accelerating and will transmit to PCE and CPI with a one- to two-month lag, deepening the Fed's December decision dilemma, capping valuation multiples with the combination of "growth not weak and inflation not retreating." Today's BTC and ETH market analysis, as well as the approximate trend impact for the next two weeks. (This post is high quality, please tap ❤️)
At the beginning of the month when summarizing BTC and ETH, I mentioned multiple times that in the next two weeks, without major impacts, the market would continue to consolidate sideways and bottom out. But I didn't tell everyone what constitutes a major impact?
Here I summarize 4 signals that affect the market trend for your reference:
1. Macro: After US employment/inflation data, whether DXY and US Treasury yields move downward in the same direction (crypto risk appetite switch)
2. BTC: Exchange balances continue to drop + price does not rise → accumulation; sudden increase in balances + price drops → long-term chips start to be handed over
3. ETH/BTC exchange rate: Not breaking the range, second bottom not lower than the first, is a precursor to ETH leading the rise; breaking below the lower range means turnover failure
4. ETF flow: BTC net outflow for 3 consecutive days without breaking support = strong; ETH single-day outflow turning into multiple days outflow = new money cannot hold
If any of the above 4 signals appear, all previous casual posts analyzing today's market are void because the market has changed.
$BTC $ETH Staring at the screen for over an hour, nothing happens except the numbers jumping around. The volume has shriveled up like dry cotton, all technical indicators are dead at the bottom, whoever enters is just working precisely for the exchange. Since the market shows no movement, forcing yourself to enter just to suffer is simply unwise. Turn off the monitor, change your clothes, and go downstairs for a walk; there's no need to stare blankly at this lifeless K-line.
$ETH $ENA $PENDLE Good morning!
Just finished reviewing the weekend data, let's take a look at the crypto market trends over the past couple of days.
First, about $BTC
In the past 24 hours, there was a net inflow of 2,563 coins, a surge of 190% compared to before. This number is quite notable—it indicates that big money is quietly entering the market, not just retail investors messing around.
But despite the inflow, the bulls and bears are still quietly battling it out, and no one dares to make the first move.
BTC is currently priced at $84,700, very close to the long liquidation line at $83,200 below. A slight drop could easily trigger a chain of liquidations.
As for $ETH, currently at $2,685, the situation is reversed. There are a lot of short positions around $2,799 above, so if it pushes up, the shorts will suffer.
Interestingly, although tensions are high on both sides,
in the past 24 hours, the actual liquidation amount for BTC was only $3.67 million, involving just over 500 accounts, a 98% drop compared to before.
What does this mean?
It means everyone has gotten smarter, leverage has been reduced significantly, and no one is willing to gamble their life at this point.
This kind of low-volume tug-of-war often signals that the market is brewing the next directional move.
Weekend market volatility was low, liquidity was poor, and neither bulls nor bears could establish a trend. Let's see if altcoins might have a chance... "LAB turns back, CORE still lying flat"
It's hard to imagine LAB coming back this time, still carrying that fierce momentum from before, grinding the shorts into the ground again. But what about CORE? It tried to break the 60-day moving average 11 times, each time reaching high but falling back, like a hopeless case. BICO is watching from the side, even Xiao Ku is almost embarrassed to watch.
Both are altcoins, so why such a big difference? LAB has buyers pulling it up, CORE has no one to catch it. One relies on strong capital support, the other just stubbornly holds on with words.
The macro environment isn't helping either: nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, BTC and ETH ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, US-Iran tensions remain high, and the G7 is releasing up to 100 million barrels of reserves. The big coins are stumbling along, it's hard for small coins to independently strengthen.
So don't fall in love with weak coins. LAB is strong, you can follow it, but don't chase the highs; CORE is weak, don't bottom-fish, wait until it truly stands firm above the 60-day moving average. Small coins are volatile, keep positions light, use stop-losses, survival is key to the next trade.
This is just a personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Zcash spot ETF records its first weekly net outflow of $93.6 million, putting the institutional narrative around ZEC to a real test.
Data from October 3 shows that Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF experienced its first weekly net outflow since its launch in August, with $93.6 million withdrawn. Just two weeks ago, the fund recorded a net inflow of $98.2 million, briefly becoming the focus of crypto ETF capital inflows that week. The rapid shift from large inflows to large outflows reflects changing market sentiment and capital allocation.
The impact on ZEC should not be simply interpreted as a bearish realization. When ETFs see continuous inflows, institutional demand provides incremental buying pressure; once redemptions occur, it not only signals weakened new demand but may also bring potential spot selling pressure. Especially given ZEC's previous significant rise and the market's accumulation of profits, outflows could amplify price volatility.
However, I believe a single week's net outflow is insufficient to directly conclude that ZEC's rally is over. Grayscale ETF's cumulative capital still maintains net inflows, and the privacy sector narrative has not disappeared due to one round of capital withdrawal. What truly needs to be observed is whether ETFs continue to experience outflows and whether capital returns to ZEC and other privacy assets.
In short-term trading, ZEC is currently focusing on the $1270 to $1300 range, which is a key support area for the market to watch. If this level holds and ETF outflows significantly narrow, with prices rebounding back to $1350 to $1400, attention can be given to an oversold rebound.#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
$CL The oil price surge expectation caused by the US-Iran tension is now directly hedged.
The G7 plans to release up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and refined products within 4 months, which translates to a considerable daily release scale, prioritizing diesel to directly address the market's biggest concern about the Middle East energy supply gap.
Many are still betting on a bullish trend from geopolitical conflicts, but the core point must be clear: this round of reserve release is specifically aimed at suppressing oil prices.
The short-term market had already priced in the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz in advance, and the positive expectations are fully priced in. The G7 reserve release is equivalent to directly boosting the supply side, hedging against supply panic caused by geopolitical tensions.
From the market perspective, after the oil price surged, the upward momentum weakened, and the bullish momentum gradually declined. If the geopolitical news does not escalate further, the market focus will return to the issue of supply increments.
In high-level trading, prioritize shorting on rebounds. Without new sudden conflict stimuli, this round of reserve release will continue to suppress crude oil's upward space, giving oil prices a chance to pull back and digest valuations. Regarding $LINK, I’d rather first ask a somewhat uncomfortable question: Are we currently seeing a trend, or a trend that has already been prematurely priced in?
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are leaning bullish, with the current volume at 0.93 times the average of the previous 20 bars, and activity close to normal. Consistent direction doesn’t mean unlimited upside; the closer to key levels, the more important the subsequent support becomes.
Current price is 14.134, about 2.46% above the 1-hour support at 13.787, and about 0.71% below resistance at 14.235. Looking at both distances together gives a more realistic risk picture than focusing on just one bullish or bearish candle.
$LINK is up 1.84% over 24 hours, but the price has reached a position where neither bulls nor bears can easily add to their positions.
For now, my conclusion is only conditional. My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding above 14.235 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; breaking below 13.787 shifts focus to the 4-hour support at 13.152. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 14.814 is for now just a distant reference, not a preset target.
This is not hindsight rationalization: in the next round, I will continue to verify 14.235 and 13.787; if conditions are met, I will record it, and if invalidated, I will review accordingly.
Do you value cycle alignment more, or are you more concerned that the risk-reward ratio at key levels has deteriorated?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Some people still talk about DeFi, sigh, the problem is that projects like Solv are not DeFi at all.
Bitcoin has no native smart contracts, so it can't do DeFi. If you want BTC lending or interest, you either deposit it into an exchange or cross-chain/wrap it into other xxBTC tokens, and at this step you give up ownership of your BTC, holding liabilities issued by the project.
The long-term goal of holding BTC is for its market cap to surpass gold, with a single coin price starting at 1 million USD. You can calculate or have AI calculate the APY for that; it’s definitely more than a single-digit APY. Giving up precious self-custody for a measly 3% APY is really losing the big picture for a small gain, and missing the forest for the trees.
And if you don’t have such a goal, then you might as well not buy BTC, just hold stablecoins honestly, and play with real top DeFi protocols (which are safer), or go to top CEXs (which have stronger willingness and ability to compensate), achieving 5-8% APY is not hard. There’s no way a fake DeFi protocol like Solv can compete, right?
The person who rushed into Solv with 50 BTC, isn’t that a problem of understanding?AVGO closed at 355.14 on Friday, recovering about 3.35% in one day.
Opened around 349.86, peaked around 357.35, dipped to about 347.42, with a volume of approximately 24.64 million.
The previous day it just dropped to about 343.64, then the next day it was pulled back by news of "banks organizing to help AI clients buy chips."
Simply put: a rumored $60 billion financing package, with about $42 billion senior and $18 billion subordinated, helping clients like Anthropic buy Broadcom chips.
My view: This isn’t Broadcom itself lending aggressively again, but outside money coming in to share the burden. The AI chain shifts from "who pays" to "whether banks are willing to run alongside."
Clients remain concentrated, but funding sources are more diversified, which looks better than pure factory loans.
My plan: Observe over the weekend, not chasing this bullish candle.
Only consider a favorable trend if it holds above about 357; if it falls below about 347, treat it as the end of the rebound.
Do you trust that banks organizing means demand is locked in, or are you worried about risks from circular financing?
$AVGO $NVDA $AMD
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital enthusiasmThe actual lowest point in 2026 was $58,379 on June 30, a retracement of about 53% from the high of 126,000, lower than the 84% in 2018 and 77% in 2022.
Zach Pandl from Grayscale reached a similar conclusion, believing that the price likely bottomed out by the end of June.
But one variable to watch: the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a monthly net outflow of about $4.06 billion in June, the largest since the product's launch. If the capital flow turns back to sustained inflows, the signal confirming the bottom will be stronger.PUMP rose 20%, I wanted to short it, but one piece of data made me hold back
PUMP current price $0.0063, up 20% in 24 hours, up 43% in 7 days. 4-hour J value 97.5, RSI overbought. Honestly, I really want to short it.
But after reviewing the data, I held back.
Reason one: Spot buying is supporting the bottom. In the past three days, spot buy volume has consistently exceeded sell volume. Pump.fun uses 50% of protocol revenue for buyback and burn, with over 463 million tokens burned in total. This is not pure speculation; there is real buying demand.
Reason two: Long leverage has just been cleaned out. After the non-farm payroll, PUMP dropped from $0.0061 to $0.00509, with $8.3 million long liquidations, 94% of which were long positions. The short-term "fuel" has already been burned through one round.
Reason three: Shorts are already becoming crowded. On Hyperliquid, PUMP funding rate has turned from positive to negative, meaning shorts are starting to pay to hold positions. When everyone wants to short, it’s often not the best shorting point.
My choice: Not to short. Wait for two signals—price breaking below $0.0060 confirming support failure, or funding rate turning positive again indicating longs are crowded again. Chasing shorts now is betting on a second round of decline, with low probability of success.
$ETH $PUMP $BTC To be honest, lately I haven't really been able to understand the market.
Scrolling through posts and comment sections, everywhere I see voices shouting new highs, making profits, and pushing forward, as if the whole world has already boarded the train, and I'm the only one standing by the roadside, hands in pockets, clutching cash tightly, not daring to make a move.
Others are into value investing, trend following, swing trading, and rotation;
I define myself as a full-time crash watcher.
I'm not blindly bearish, nor am I hoping anyone loses money, I just have a simple "bargain hunting obsession."
In my mind, the perfect script is already written: a decent pullback comes, chips get discounted, everyone starts to panic, pessimistic comments everywhere, I calmly enter the market, lightly practicing "be greedy when others are fearful," just thinking about it makes me feel cool.
But reality keeps teaching me a lesson: it never follows my script.
Occasionally there's a small plunge, I instantly get tense, fingers hovering over the buy button, heart pounding, thinking I've finally caught the opportunity.
Within half an hour, it pulls back up into the green, as if it stopped just to tease me: trying to bottom fish? No way.
I even have a bit of a conspiracy theory: does the market have a radar specifically watching if I’m out of position?
Whenever I hold back, it just keeps going up; the moment I think "maybe I should buy a little to test the waters," it deliberately surges further, like mocking my resolve.
People around me advise: missing out is also a loss, just get on board first.
I stubbornly say: wait a bit more, opportunities come to those who wait.
But inside, I’m panicking: what if it just keeps rising like this, never giving me a chance to come back.Today's casual chat about eth (2)
$ETH Summary: turnover phase, many false breakouts, wait for "end of accumulation"
Price range: 2,600 – 2,800
1: Short-term lifeline: 2,670 – 2,680
- Daily close below → turnover failure, old money selling pressure dominates
- Bull confirmation: close > 2,750 (not a wick, but daily close)
2: Retest without breaking 2,700 → then the false breakout ends, target 2,800 / 2,950
- Three walls above:
- 2,750 (breakout confirmation)
- 2,800 (upper range + trapped positions)
- 3,000 (sentiment level, requires ETF net inflow again)
3: Support zone: 2,455 – 2,490
- Watch if whales' leftover sell-off can be absorbed here
- Trend break levels: 2,430 / 2,260 (100-200 day moving average zone)
- Close below 2,430 → short-term weakness, don't believe "ETH will lead the rally"
- Close below 2,260 → turnover completely fails, back to 2.1k
Operation suggestions refer to the quoted post. The U.S. added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Is this good news for the crypto market, or the start of a new round of risks?
From the weekend's trend, the market has already given its first round of feedback, but it is not as optimistic as expected.
September's nonfarm payrolls were far below the market expectation of 89,000, with July and August employment data revised down by a total of 60,000. The expectation of a Fed rate hike in October has also clearly cooled. Logically, weaker employment means economic cooling, easing rate hike pressure, falling U.S. Treasury yields, improved liquidity expectations, which theoretically benefits risk assets like BTC and ETH.
But Friday's market action is worth caution. BTC once surged above $87,000, then faced obvious selling pressure and fell back to around $84,600. U.S. stocks rebounded stimulated by weak employment data, but BTC failed to effectively hold key resistance, indicating the current market is not simply trading on easing expectations; concerns about economic recession and risk asset valuations still exist.
My judgment is that the core short-term market conflict has shifted from rate hike expectations to a battle between recession risk and liquidity expectations. If U.S. Treasury yields continue to fall, the dollar weakens, and BTC can retake $87,000, then capital may flow back into the crypto market, with BTC likely to strengthen first, followed by rotation opportunities in highly elastic assets like ETH and SOL.
Conversely, if employment data continues to deteriorate and the market starts trading recession rather than rate cuts, risk appetite may quickly cool, and BTC could retest the $83,000 or even $80,000 range.
End$ZEC did experience a rebound today, but don't be mistaken into thinking the downtrend is over; it is still suitable to follow the trend and short. After the price pulled back, the main funds did not stop; they are still continuously increasing short positions.
This can be seen from the smart money position data: the number of short accounts decreased by 75, but the total short amount actually increased by more than 22 million U against the trend. Normally, when the price falls back, the floating profit of existing shorts would shrink, and the position funds should decrease. Now, instead of decreasing, they increased, indicating that the main players are using real money to continue heavily shorting at the current rebound level.
Currently, the average cost of short positions is at 1299, almost close to the current price. 77% of short accounts in the market are now profitable, but the overall short ledger still shows a slight loss of 410,000. This signal is very important, indicating that this batch of newly added heavy short positions entered near the current price level. $ETH $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Casual chat about btc today (2)
Summary of $BTC: grinding at the upper range, waiting for macro, no chasing breakouts
Price range: 82.0k – 87.2k
Key strength threshold: 85,650 (previous resistance turned support)
1: Close above 85,650 over the weekend → bulls are still alive, waiting for macro continuation
2: Pullback without breaking 85,650 → short-term bullish, target 87.2k
- Mid-axis/false breakout zone: 84,500 – 85,000
- Most likely to be swept here: spike up to 85.8k then drop back to 84.8k = false breakout
3: Bullish defense: 82,000 – 82,200
- 4h/daily close below 82,000 → bulls fail, no catching falling knives
4: Deep support: 78,800 – 80,000 (EMA cluster + previous volume area)
5: After a true break below 82k, watch here; not a one-day event, only macro black swan would go there
6: Resistance above:
- 87.2k (weekly high)
- 87.6k – 88.0k (selling pressure wall)
- 90.7k (trend continuation level, requires ETF + macro double confirmation)
Operation advice see quoted post $BTC $ETH $ZEC remain in a volatile consolidation phase, with no short-term coordinated momentum. Risk appetite continues to decline, and capital is more inclined to wait and see, with a clear lack of willingness to chase gains.
However, the altcoin sector has shown localized agitation, with a few tokens rapidly surging and attracting attention. This divergence can easily trigger short-selling impulses, but existing positions have not been closed yet, and I do not intend to open multiple fronts simultaneously. The biggest fear in trading is neglecting one side while focusing on another; first, handle the current holdings well, wait for profits to be realized, then evaluate those altcoins that have risen too quickly without support to look for high-level shorting opportunities.
The macro environment also does not support aggressive moves: non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, with economic slowdown and policy expectations intertwined; BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw simultaneous net outflows, cooling incremental funds; the US-Iran situation remains tense, and the G7 plans to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves, potentially amplifying volatility in risk assets.
Current strategy: no rush, no chasing, no itchy hands. Maintain the rhythm and wait for signals.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $FIL #BTC、ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital heat. The spot supply side is about to face a rigid shift. On October 15, 2026, the six-year linear release from early institutions and foundations will officially end, with the annual new token supply sharply dropping from about 88.4 million to about 22 million, a 75% decrease. The only remaining new output channel will be block rewards. For market-making funds and order book depth, the passive absorption pressure sustained over six years is about to clear.
However, this calculation cannot be linearly extrapolated solely from the issuance side. The current total network staked lock-up remains around 26 million tokens, which, together with the actual burn volume of Gas base fees, forms two real valves for the circulating supply. Although the supply curve slope shows a steep inflection point, if on-chain storage packaging activity is insufficient, causing node-staked tokens to unbind and flow back to the secondary market, the spot inventory flowing into the order book will still dilute the benefits brought by the inflation slowdown.
Derivative funding rates and spot basis have not yet fully priced in this medium- to long-term liquidity withdrawal expectation. As mid-October node deadlines approach, once selling pressure dulls and on-chain staking absorption resonates, the market is prone to a nonlinear upward decoupling after spot depth thins; conversely, if network activity remains cold causing continuous staking outflows, bulls relying on the halving logic to build a bottom must endure a second liquidity test.To sum up Standard Chartered's bragging this year
They basically mentioned all the popular altcoins in the market
$UNI: lowest point 2.7, Standard Chartered's 2030 target 100, about 37x
$AAVE: lowest point 74, Standard Chartered's 2030 target 3500, about 47x
$MORPHO: currently 2, Standard Chartered's 2030 target 60, about 30x
LINK: lowest point 8, Standard Chartered's 2030 target 200, about 25x
ARB: call position 0.13, Standard Chartered's 2030 target 10, about 77x
SKY: call position 0.065, 2028 Standard Chartered target 0.325, about 5x
ENA: call position 0.26, 2028 Standard Chartered target 2, about 7.7x
Do you think Standard Chartered is just bragging or really optimistic???
Reminder: When ETH dropped to 1900 in 2025, Standard Chartered released a report claiming ETH's tech upgrade failed and it was facing a midlife crisis; later when ETH rose to 4700, Standard Chartered released another report calling ETH the second largest cryptocurrency, expecting 7500 😂😂😂$CP Looking at the past trends of altcoins, there are 3 patterns: The first is a continuous surge of 3 to 5 times right after the opening, then falling back, even breaking new lows. The second is a gradual decline followed by a sharp drop of 3-10 times over about 2 weeks, then a V-shaped recovery of at least half. The third is a gradual decline plus a sharp drop lasting about 2 months, then starting a V-shaped recovery, doubling or tripling from the low point, followed by continued gradual decline. $CP belongs to the third type, so wait a bit longer and check again in 2 months.Single Coin Spot Movement｜Last 15 Minutes
$ETH rise accompanied by active buying: 15-minute price +0.12%, active buy ratio 68.3%, volume 3.9 times. Buy dominance corresponds with peer increase, currently showing strength in both volume and price.Besent said, "There is no need to worry about the rise in US Treasury yields and the AI bubble," which is essentially expectation management aimed at calming market sentiment rather than truly solving the problem. The root cause of high long-term interest rates is the fiscal deficit and term premium, which cannot be eliminated by simply saying "consistent with global trends." The official downplaying of risks actually indicates their lack of effective control over long-term interest rates.
In terms of operations, don't be misled by officials' statements. Continue to defend, keep enough cash, wait for confirmation that long-term US Treasury yields have peaked and ETF funds flow back in, then consider increasing positions. At this stage, defense is more important than offense.