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BTC 87200.
It hit the top four times, not once did it go up.
Why is it so tough here?
Because all the old familiar faces are standing above.
Those who bought here are waiting to break even.
Those who sold at a loss are waiting to recover their capital.
But the ones to really pay attention to are those who bought at the high last year and have been stuck for almost a year.
They have only one thought: break even and leave.
What's worse is: media and bloggers are all shouting that 87000 is a key level.
Once it's shouted out, it becomes an open card.
Open cards are the most awkward because everyone knows where to lie in wait.
So tell me, who is the knife, and who is the meat?
The price is blocked at the moment when a group of people simultaneously press the sell button.
Of course, there are also good signs.
This drop is shallower than last time, indicating someone caught it below.
So it should bounce back faster next.
Also,
additionally, the longs have to pay the shorts.
This payment is currently positive, check it yourself.
Positive means more people want it to rise.
But this payment is not high yet, which is actually a good thing.
It means it hasn't been squeezed yet. If it really squeezes into a pile, one person runs, and the rest all fall.
This has happened many times this year, bulls cluster, then all explode, exchanges like it.
What happens next?
If it can't go up, it will fall below 84000, but the drop won't be too big.
If it can go up, the path ahead is clear, probably seeing around 90000.
Finally, to be honest.
Such small fluctuations are nothing for Bitcoin.
You can't beat the house, you can't beat big money. There are 786,000 ETH queued for unstaking, which looks scary, but I don't think this signals a sell-off.
On September 29, the exit queue was only about 166,000 ETH, then on October 2 it surged to about 851,000 ETH, more than a 5-fold increase in three days.
Today, about 786,000 ETH remain, and with a maximum daily exit of about 57,600 ETH, the queue would take nearly 14 days.
The cause was a security incident disclosed by MetaMask on September 30, which temporarily withdrew validators running for Lido.
They said no wallets or user funds were affected, and Lido also said stETH holders don’t need to take action.
I think this batch of coins is very likely just switching nodes and restaking; Lido probably will take at most 45 days for the whole process, and it’s not that people want to sell.
What really deserves attention is the other side: the queue for staking has dropped from about 2 million ETH in early September to about 1.5 million ETH, indicating new inflows are cooling down.
Price-wise, ETH has basically been stuck between 2640 and 2780 over the past two weeks, currently around 2722.
What to do: observe and don’t chase; wait for a 4-hour close above 2780 before considering, and avoid if it falls below 2650.
Do you think this 786,000 ETH is a false alarm, or will some people take the opportunity to exit?
$ETH $LDO $BTC #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $CT is truly ironic. Once, I was full of confidence analyzing serious projects, understanding the EVM virtual machine, TPS public chain performance, TVL total locked value, POS, POW, consensus mechanisms, and Byzantine fault-tolerant secure consensus, and I had some experience—for example, the TON public chain, NOT as the largest native ecological token, the X coin of the ton chain, floki the bull-headed dog, AKE, and NEAR sharded public chain—all analyzed successfully. Now, I have actually ended up on a Binance chain, looking for a local dog coin that just filled its internal market, and even squatting on He Yi, the dog coin that Zhao Changpeng tweeted about, like licking others, waiting for a bite of meat. Of course, it’s full of disappointment. It’s not that my analytical ability has worsened, but these top-tier and smaller exchanges are all listing garbage projects, the environment has become very bad, very bad. Now, 80% of exchange revenue comes mainly from contract gambling dogs. Even the new coins listed in spot markets are endless garbage. No matter how much new coin spot traders complain, even if they stop playing new coin spot and quit the circle, exchanges still have contract gambling dogs as a safety net. So exchanges are brazen and completely indifferent. It’s like a master angler fishing in a reservoir with no fish; it’s hard to catch any fish.*Bitcoin Latest News October 5th 4 PM Chinese Version - Final Edition*
*Price: $BTC $84,300 Grinding Market, Low Volume*
- Current price fluctuates between $84K-$86K, US stock market closed on weekend, spot volume $2.2B, moving averages converging
- Core point: *$82K is just not broken, not stabilized; $85K can’t hold, selling pressure remains*
- Below $84.8K piled up $1.8B long liquidations, weekends favor sweeping these stop losses, real breakout to wait for Monday US market open with volume above $85K
*Funds: ETF Inflows Brake, Fees Grinding*
- September $BTC spot ETF net inflow $2.65B, but outflow $149M in last 2 days, institutions reducing positions at highs
- $ETH spot ETF continuous outflow, current price $2,665, retesting $2,650 ≠ $2,700 resistance gone
- Contract fee rate 0.01% annualized 10.95% is relatively high, open interest $56.2B leverage too hot, big brother Maji burns $1.23M fees on $ETH daily, cleared small coins like $PUMP, only $BTC $ETH $HYPE 3 main coins left
*Macro: Positive for Majors, Negative Sentiment*
- *VanEck:* $BTC will continue to expand market share, dominance rise unfavorable for altcoins
- *SEC:* Plans to relax institutional crypto custody restrictions, positive for $BTC $ETH $SOL compliant coins #OKXNOW: The future is here, and major announcements are unfolding
OKX has now built a solid foundation overall, with mature software and various features. Moving forward, the focus will be on AI, on-chain ecosystems, and payments.
In my view, the areas with the most practical potential are payments and wallets. Recently, there have been frequent news reports of various wallets being hacked; asset security remains the biggest headache for everyone, so there is a huge demand for secure and user-friendly wallets. If wallet security can be well established and on-chain payments integrated, that would be a truly practical use case.
AI and on-chain certainly have imaginative potential, but many aspects are still conceptual. Payments and wallets are closer to everyday use and more likely to generate real applications. Looking forward to the new content at this release event to see if they can deliver standout products in secure payments and bring truly usable Web3 applications to life. [Old Leek Observation] $GTC still has to be the Koreans' strength
GTC suddenly doubled these days, and finally there is something to match behind it.
Gitcoin announced the latest Reboot plan on October 1st, officially naming the new direction Techne. The first product Beacon has already entered the App Store, and the second pilot is also underway, aiming for an official launch in mid-December.
At the same time, a large amount of funds suddenly appeared for GTC on Korean exchanges. On October 5th, Bithumb once rose by 52.6%, and the trading volume of several local exchanges expanded simultaneously. So this wave is Gitcoin retelling its story, and on the other side, the Korean market suddenly boosted the trading volume.
The problem is also obvious: Techne will truly land in December, but this wave has already speculated a lot of expectations in advance. Don't short BTC for now; its drop is just the first pullback after hitting resistance on the rebound. Look, when it rebounds again, the momentum and trading volume are definitely there. That means after another consolidation and buildup, when it pushes to 87000 again, a real breakout is very likely, you know?
Also, the daily-level consolidation range hasn't been broken. From the daily chart perspective, as long as 82500~83000 isn't broken, it still counts as a strong consolidation.
So I can only say, if you short around 87000, quick in and quick out is fine, but if you hold a position, the risk could be very high. Let's watch again tonight; at least I'm still holding my long position, and I'm not worried. We'll see tonight.Don't just watch the live preview for this wave from OKX.
OKX and the NYSE parent company ICE have already reported tokenized US stocks to the SEC, under the entity called OKXICE. The first batch is about 63 companies, and issuers have 30 days to opt out. Star said the contracts are planned to be on X Layer, not on someone else's chain.
The trading is still the old business, the new addition is that stocks can also be transferred here. It's not clear yet if the batch is fully approved, so it's too early to draw conclusions. But people are already in this app, and this is easier to push than the ETF inflows.
Tomorrow at 10 AM is OKX Now. I only listen for two things: when stocks can really be traded, and what exactly runs on X Layer.
Is this incremental growth, or just another launch event? Leave a comment below.
#欧洲央行上线代币化结算平台 #OKXICE向SEC申请推出代币化股票交易平台
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 NVIDIA nears $6 trillion; tokenization surges — today's info is quite dense.
On the macro front, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, OPEC+ maintains November production unchanged, crude oil slightly pressured, BZ down 0.75%, CL down 0.78%. Besant notes that rising US Treasury yields align with global trends, and interest rate expectations continue to influence global capital.
In tech and IPOs, NVIDIA stock hits another all-time high, market cap approaching $6 trillion, AI computing power faith persists; Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving, adding fuel to the AI giant IPO wave.
In crypto markets, capital flows show clear divergence: BTC spot ETFs return to inflows, ETH funds continue outflows; ZEC spot ETFs outflow for three consecutive days, but with NU7 upgrade approaching, short-term sentiment may vary. On taxes, US 2025 tax filing extension ends October 15, involving crypto declarations—investors beware of deadlines.
The real highlight is tokenized stocks. Solana tokenized stock trading volume surpassed $4.4 billion in September, SOL and AAVE slightly up; OKXICE officially applied to the SEC to launch a tokenized stock trading platform, OKB surged 4.01%. Meanwhile, OKXNOW teases "The future is here, major content is being unveiled."
With NVIDIA, Anthropic, US Treasuries, and tokenized stocks all in play, the boundary between traditional finance and crypto worlds is rapidly fading. OKX strikes on two fronts—can it ignite the next narrative? Stay tuned. 6 years in stock trading and 2 years in the crypto space, able to go from 1000 to 1400 in a week, and already withdrew — just this once, you've already beaten 90% of people. Knowing that withdrawal equals profit.
*1000 to 10,000, a 10x challenge, short-term traders can do it, but the strategy must change:*
Your previous 1000 to 1400 was a 40% weekly return, very strong, but 10x is not just five times 40% compounded; a single -30% drop sets you back 2 weeks.
*Here's a short-term 10x framework for you, suitable for your weekly return under 40%:*
*1. Withdraw in stages, not all at once to 10,000*
- 1000 to 2000 first stage, withdraw 500, leave 1500 to continue
- 1500 to 3000 second stage, withdraw 1000, leave 2000
- 2000 to 5000 third stage, withdraw 2000, leave 3000
- 3000 to 10000 final push
- Your previous withdrawal was correct; the biggest risk in a 1000 challenge is going to zero at once, withdrawing locks in profits and is true compounding
*2. Position sizing continues from your 82,000 lesson*
- Last time you used 82,000 as support and got stopped out just below — this is the worst for short-term 10x
- For a 1000 portfolio: single loss no more than 50 (5%), single gain 100-150 then exit, 1:2 risk-reward ratio
- With $BTC now grinding at 84,000, $SOL at 120, $ETH at 2600 with these fees, avoid heavy positions, test with 5% position size,Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated based on order book, excluding fees
$FET buy slippage increases significantly with order size: buy slippage for orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT is 0.11% and 0.36%, respectively. Large order slippage is about 0.25 percentage points higher.
$VIRTUAL buy slippage increases significantly with order size: buy slippage for orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT is 0.06% and 0.30%, respectively. Large order slippage is about 0.24 percentage points higher.#SolanaStocksTop4.4B Tokenized stocks hitting $4.4B in Solana DEX volume is impressive. But the timing of trades caught my attention 👀
71% of Uniswap tokenized-stock trades happened outside US market hours, showing demand for something TradFi still struggles to offer: 24/7 access.
Now Aave is adding another layer by letting users borrow against tokenized stocks.
The bigger story isn't stocks moving on-chain. It's stocks becoming programmable collateral that can trade, lend and unlock $BONK This trade is 20x long, earning 112%. Let's talk about what leverage really is.
For example: you have 100 units, without leverage you buy 100 units worth of coins. With 20x leverage, the platform lends you 1900 units, so you operate with a total of 2000 units.
If the coin rises 5%, your 100 units become 200 units — doubled. Looks great, right?
But conversely, if the coin falls 5%, your 100 units are gone. Not a cent left, directly zeroed out. So leverage is a double-edged sword, you smile when you earn, cry when you lose.
I only dare to go 20x on BONK, any higher and I get nervous. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 *Latest Bitcoin News October 5 Afternoon Chinese Version - $BTC 84K Fee Market*
*Price Grinding: 82K not broken, but not stabilized*
- Current price range $84,200 - $86,200 sideways, weekend volume only $2.2 billion, US stock market closed, moving averages all tangled together
- What you said before is so right: a pullback to 82K not breaking ≠ buying pressure, the 85K resistance above still can't hold, indicating sellers are still present. Over $84800, there is more than $1.8 billion long liquidation piled up, most love to sweep your stop losses just "a bit below support"
- $BTC $82K is a psychological barrier, $85K is real resistance, true stabilization requires next week’s US stock market opening + spot volume increase
*Capital Flow: ETF shifts from inflow to outflow, fees are grinding*
- In September, $BTC spot ETF net inflow was a strong $2.65 billion, but in the last 2 days outflowed $149 million, institutions taking profits at highs
- $ETH is worse, spot ETF continuous outflow, $2,665 repeatedly tested, a pullback to 2650 does not mean 2700 resistance disappears
- Contract fee rate 0.01% annualized 10.95% is relatively high, big brother Maji burns $1.2338 million in funding fees daily for 36,000 $ETH, $BTC 383 coins burn $35,700, small coin $PUMP has been cleared by him, only $HYPE $ETH $BTC three mainstream coins left in the 145 million market Liquidity Stalemate: When "Reflow" Is Just a Polite Term for Hedging
The market is unnervingly quiet. $BTC hovers around 84,000, ETH barely turns green, SOL is stuck at 120 without moving, and even XAUT shows 0.00%—volatility drained, bulls and bears both losing their edge.
ETF data looks lively but tells a different story on closer inspection. BTC sees a slight reflow, but don’t rush to shout "funds are entering." After the nonfarm payroll surprise, institutions are merely retreating from altcoins, returning to BTC as the "least bad" option. This is hedging, not an offensive move.
$ETH is even more straightforward: four consecutive days of bleeding, totaling over $100 million. Staking yields can’t keep up with U.S. Treasuries, the upgrade narrative cools down, liquidity tightens, and institutions can’t even be bothered to tolerate it. They’d rather earn risk-free interest than stay a second longer in the narrative.
The market thus enters a dull-knife mode—no crash, no bounce, slowly grinding away patience and funding rates. Chasing BTC reflow for a rebound or buying ETH on the cheap to bottom-fish is likely just fueling a liquidity trap.
Defense is defense; don’t overplay your hand. Wait for the stagnant water to be broken by macro or capital flows, wait for the direction to reveal its true face, then act. #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 Maji finally caught a break today, making $3.14M in 24h and $5.03M in 30 days.
He’s holding $151M in leveraged positions, with $93M in ETH and $40M in BTC as the main bets.
Still down $24.87M overall, so it’s not a comeback—just a breather.
#FedSeptemberMinutes #HormuzStillClosed
#OKXNOW：SeeWhat'sNext BTC reclaimed 86074, but the rebound volume is still 19.2% less
The previous bearish judgment on BTC needs to be reassessed: the 1H candle from 14:00 to 15:00 closed back at 86268.1 USDT, surpassing the fixed 86074.4 at that time. The rebound has met the price condition, but the volume remains lower than the 12:00–13:00 down hour, so the recovery strength deserves separate examination.
The rebound hour volume was 246.78 BTC, which is 19.2% less compared to the down hour volume of 305.40 BTC; the two candles are one hour apart and not in the same bucket. Its close was also higher than the 13:00–14:00 high of 85795.7, but still 104.6 USDT below its own high of 86372.7. Currently, the price recovery can be confirmed, but further extension awaits new closing and volume evidence.
My observation criteria for continuation after recovery are: subsequent 1H lows remain above 86074.4, and closes surpass 86372.7 to confirm extension; if the hourly close falls back below 86074.4, the current recovery judgment fails. If the price stays above 86074.4 but volume continues below 305.40 BTC, what new closing evidence would you use to confirm rebound strength?
Source: OKX official BTC/USDT spot 1H closed candle, confirm=1, data as of 15:00 Beijing time on October 5; volume comparison between 12:00–13:00 and 14:00–15:00, not the same bucket. Price unit USDT, volume unit BTC. For market observation only, not investment advice.Is there anyone like me who didn't dare to bottom buy when $BTC dropped to 85600, but then feared chasing the high and getting trapped when it rose to 86202? I used to be like this, watching it rise and fall repeatedly, missing out back and forth. Later, I realized that trading isn't about buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest, but buying at support levels and selling at resistance levels. Now the support is at 86000, resistance at 86963. I'm lightly going long at 86100, stop loss at 85800, target 86963. Losing 200,000 U and recovering, opening a position with 5000 U, no holding through losses, must set stop loss. The biggest enemy of retail investors is not the market, but their own fear and greed. $BTC #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
BTC spot ETF inflows occurred on four out of five days, leaving only $82.9 million for the week.
▪️ On 9/28, inflow was $31 million; on 9/29, $66.2 million; on 9/30, a single-day outflow of $148.7 million wiped out more than the previous two days' inflows.
▪️ On 10/1, $102.7 million flowed back in; on 10/2, another $31.7 million, totaling $134.4 million over two days, just about recovering 90% of the 9/30 outflow.
▪️ The previous week (9/21–9/25) saw inflows of $2.39 billion into this pool; this week only $82.9 million remained.
▪️ ETH, conversely: four consecutive days of net outflows totaling $135.1 million, nearly matching BTC's two-day inflows, with FETH alone accounting for $74.1 million.
The divergence isn't whether BTC has reopened the faucet; after two days of opening, only 30% remained on the second day, and the week's net amount is an entire order of magnitude less than last week.
The real issue isn't whether the money returned. The weekly net volume doesn't indicate recovery; it only shows how much remains at the end—the inflow channels are narrower than the outflow leaks.
Four days of inflows, but the ledger only has scraps left. Do you read this as the start of recovery, or that the drop isn't over yet? Just woke up
Saw pons pumping
I want to talk a bit
about the pons buyback issue
If you are an experienced crypto player
you know buybacks have many tricks
Let's briefly discuss buybacks
1: The source of buyback funds should be from your own USDT, ETH, etc. (that's a real buyback). If you use your own issued worthless tokens to buy back your worthless tokens, that doesn't count as a buyback
2: The tokens being bought back, like pons, whose tokens are being bought back? Are they tokens locked by the project team, tokens held by the project team, or tokens held by retail investors, i.e., tokens circulating in the market? If it's retail investors' tokens, then the buyback is meaningful. If it's the project's own tokens, it's just moving eggs from one basket to another
3: After buyback, where are the tokens placed? A burn address or a separate wallet? If it's a burn address, I think it's an effective buyback. If the tokens are placed in a separate wallet, then it's just adding a big buyer who can still sell
4: Is the buyback manual or automatic? If manual, it can be stopped anytime, which is not very meaningful. Pons is at this stage, not hardcoded into the contract. Currently, the project is doing well and needs this kind of marketing. Once the project fails, who knows what will happen
So, if it's a real buyback, will the token price rise?
If a protocol doesn't make money, say $1000 in fees per day, and uses 1% of protocol income for buybacks daily, I think that's a joke
$BTC $PONS $ADA surged 10.6% in a single day, hitting 0.2741, and I dare to short it
$ADA surged onto CoinGecko's trending list, currently priced at 0.2713, up 10.6% in 24h. My stance: bearish, if it breaks 0.2741, I dare to short.
The daily MACD shows a bearish crossover above zero for 2 days, with the green bars flattening; price surged but momentum didn't follow, and the short-term moving averages have been bullish for 14 days and should rest now.
Derivatives are even hotter. Open Interest is up 19.04% compared to the archive, the long-short account ratio is 2.1756, but the funding rate is only 0.0001—this crowded trade with no cost to hold will hurt the most when it crashes.
The 24h volume ratio is 2.093, showing increased volume, but the last two 15-minute bars of 3,698,547 and 4,057,641 have shrunk below the previous hour's average volume of 4,486,946—momentum for continuation is breaking.
Resistance above: 0.2741 (24h high)
Support below: 0.2386 (4h SAR)
The overall market is attacking (52 up / 15 down), up 24.28% in 30 days, position is not low—I'm on the short side this round; a rebound into resistance is a gift for short positions.
I won't chase longs at this level. Enter short below 0.2741 at current price, stop loss if it breaks above 0.2741, take profit firmly if it breaks below 0.2386. Follow me, no getting lost next wave.
$ADA $BTC$ZEC just gave traders a reason to look up from the chart.
NU7 is now live on public testnet, targeting 25-second blocks, with a mainnet decision expected after testing.
Meanwhile, $ZEC is still sitting ~21% below its recent high.
That creates an interesting setup: real protocol changes + a heavily watched price.
Will NU7 become the catalyst for ZEC’s next big move? 👀
$ZEC OKX has submitted an application to the US SEC to allow 24-hour on-chain trading of real equity US stocks.
The underlying assets are genuinely custodied NYSE stocks, and token holders fully own dividends and shareholder voting rights, no longer the synthetic stocks of the past.
Could this be a booster for the bull market? [laughing] Failed twice to break through 86,000! Where is the "powder keg" of bull selling?
This afternoon, BTC again attempted to surge to 86,000-87,000, marking the third consecutive short-term breakthrough attempt.
The first time it reached 87,000 but couldn't hold, the second time it didn't even reach 87,000.
If it fails again this time, short-term bull selling is almost inevitable.
Bulls will step on bulls themselves!
Why? The data doesn't lie:
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $138 million, with short position liquidations as high as $113 million, and BTC short liquidations at $57.07 million. This rally was driven by a short squeeze, not spot buying. Once the shorts are cleared, who will take over?
Glassnode's liquidation heatmap shows the largest short liquidation cluster near 90,000 above, while smaller liquidation clusters exist near 83,000 and 75,000 below. If BTC falls back below 83,000, it will trigger a chain reaction of bull liquidations.
My judgment:
· 86,000 is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it continues to fall below this level, the breakthrough fails, and the downside targets are 85,000 → 84,000.
· If it breaks through 87,000-88,500 with volume and holds, short liquidations will accelerate, with the upside target at 90,000.
Do you think it can hold this time?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC SOLUSDT Perpetual · 100x Long · Position Open $SOL
Entry 119.56 → Current Price 121.48 | Floating Profit +160.58%
After a dip, it stabilized, the bottom structure gradually rising, key support retested without breaking, very small position added long, stop loss set below previous low. Strict position control with 100x max leverage, price rose as expected, directly gaining over 160% floating profit.
Trailing stop moved up to around 120.50 to lock in profits, remaining position watching for a breakout above resistance. $ZEC $BTC
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 *Latest Bitcoin News October 5 Noon Chinese Version*
*Price: $BTC $84,200 grinding, very low volume over the weekend*
- Current price is moving sideways between $84K-$86K, US stock market is closed, spot volume is only about $2.2 billion, moving averages are all tangled together. The $82,000 you mentioned is just not broken, not a firm hold.
- The $85,000 resistance above cannot hold, selling pressure remains. Below $84.8K there is over $1.8 billion long liquidation, weekend traders love to sweep these stop losses just "a bit below support".
- $BTC $82K retest not broken ≠ breakout, a real breakout requires waiting for US stock market to open next week + volume surge to stand above $85K.
*Capital flow: ETF inflows braking, fees relatively high*
- In September, $BTC spot ETF inflows were strong at $2.65 billion, but in the last 2 days outflows of $149 million occurred, institutions reducing positions at highs, $ETH outflows continue.
- Contract fee rate 0.01% annualized 10.95% is relatively high, open interest $56.2 billion leverage is too hot, long costs are high, so a surge to $87K quickly reversed.
*Whale activity: $145 million portfolio cuts small coins to protect majors*
- Big brother Maji cleared $PUMP $5.65 million, now only 3 remain: $HYPE 172,000 coins cost $89.72 liquidation price $46.16 risk squeezed out, $ETH 36,000 coins cost $2688 liquidation price $2493 burning $1.23 million daily fee pressure, $BTC 383 coins cost $84,744 liquidation price $65,867 most solid NEAR has climbed back above $5, and I’m starting my first position now.
NEAR has returned above $5 today, with a 24-hour increase of over 5%.
But what I’m really focusing on isn’t how much it rose today, but that the 12-hour structure is starting to strengthen again.
The current price is around $5.07, having reclaimed MA5, MA10, and MA20, temporarily repairing the consecutive pullbacks from the past few days.
At the same time, there’s a fundamental change worth noting: NEAR Intents’ fee revenue in September reached a yearly high.
So this time my plan is quite clear.
Around $5.00–$5.08, I’ll initially allocate 25% of my planned position.
If it can volume-wise hold above $5.15 next, I’ll add another 20%.
The first target is around $5.35–$5.40, where I’ll take partial profits.
If it continues to break through, the second target is near the previous high of $5.55.
Conversely, if it falls back below $4.85 and fails to rebound above, I’ll exit this trade and won’t add more on the downside.
What I’m more concerned about now isn’t whether NEAR can rise another 5% today, but whether $5 can truly turn from resistance into support this time.
First position is in, will continue to monitor.
$NEAR $ENA is just one step away from resistance; standing above and holding above are different
$ENA +2.31% in 24 hours, current price 0.2438, only 0.21% away from the 1-hour resistance at 0.2443. This kind of position often creates an illusion: just crossing it during the session is mistaken for a completed breakout. The real meaningful answer is whether it can hold after crossing.
Put emotions aside first; the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 0.23964493, currently bullish; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 0.24124832, also currently bullish. The short-term cycle exposes changes, the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of overcrowding; when they conflict, beware of whipsaws. You can't just pick the side that favors you.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 3.86% away from the 1-hour support at 0.2344 and about 0.21% away from resistance at 0.2443. Putting these two distances together reveals which side requires more evidence. Focusing only on price changes can easily mistake the space already traveled as if it hasn't started yet.#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
This week there are two central bank minutes: the Fed on the 7th and the ECB on the 8th, both recording the rate hike meetings from September. Conclusion first: the minutes are likely hawkish, but probably no one will care. $BTC
Why? They reflect the collective mindset on September 16, when the rate hike was unanimously 25 basis points, pushing rates to 3.75%-4%, and 16 out of 19 members in the dot plot expected another hike by year-end. But what happened after the meeting is not mentioned at all in the minutes: core PCE was revised down, September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment at 4.2%, and wage growth hit its lowest year-over-year since May 2021. The odds of an October hike have dropped from 76% to below 30%. At that unanimous meeting, did anyone already signal a pause? If yes, it means the shift was internally spontaneous; if no, then the current dovish stance is data-driven, and December could see a comeback at any time.
For $BTC, it is now stuck between 84,000 and 85,000; if the minutes are hawkish and US Treasury yields rise, it will test 82,500. But the minutes do not finalize pricing; the real pricing power lies with the October 14 CPI and the October 28 meeting.
$ETH is more complicated. Macro factors are just additive; its own problem lies in continuous ETF outflows and the trapped positions between 2700 and 2720. When the market tightens, it is easier to dump than Bitcoin. The minutes may scare people, but not for long. The data has already shifted, and the market will eventually catch on.
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 deBridge September data is out. Let's do a follow-up.
1⃣ Protocol revenue was $683,000, up 36% month-over-month, 79% more than July
2⃣ Cross-chain transaction volume reached $804 million, with 459,000 transactions, the highest in nearly four months
3⃣ Since Robinhood Chain was integrated on July 1, transaction volume has increased 94 times
4⃣ The reserve holds 686 million DBR tokens, compared to 221 million a year ago, accounting for over 10% of the current circulating supply
As discussed before, when people look at a new project, they first check if protocol revenue is used to support the token. deBridge does this very thoroughly.
All revenue goes into the reserve, which buys DBR on the open market. Even though July revenue dropped, the reserve still added 26 million tokens that month. $BTC, over 100x, floating profit 133%. After making so many trades today, this last BTC trade is the one I feel most confident about: this money was earned solidly.
Those small coins that have multiplied several times, honestly, involve some luck; their volatility is too wild, and even if you profit, you can't be sure if it will happen again next time.
But at this BTC position, long entries at 85,155 that didn't drop, the logic is clear, I dare to review and repeat it. The ability to replicate profits is the real skill. $ETH $ZEC #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 The direction of $NEAR looks smooth, but the trading volume is casting doubt on this trend.
I'll look at the position first, without guessing the direction. The current price is 5.082, about 6.71% away from the 1-hour support at 4.741, and about 0.47% away from the resistance at 5.106. Here, what’s lacking is not directional speculation, but the sustainability after the price truly breaks through the boundary.
The current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.55 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars; both the 1-hour and 4-hour volumes are relatively strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
There are only two conditions that would make me change my judgment. My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 5.106 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 4.741, then attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 4.59. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 5.307 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
To continuously track this segment, just remember 5.106 and 4.741. I will come back in the next round to check if my judgment has been overturned by the market.
When direction consistency and insufficient volume conflict, which do you trust more?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.Focus on making up losses wherever they occur
$ARB long position at 0.2, added more later
Although I recovered the previous long's profit, I just went short again
Who the hell knows it's this strong, originally set at 466, changed to 566, but it damn well ran to 700
Now there's a floating short loss at 0.2057
$ETH Ethereum pulled back 30 points from 2700, this short squeeze is really annoying
If Ethereum pulls back to 2750 again, it won't hold
$ZEC at 1333 isn't as strong as this morning, opened about 10 orders around 1320 yesterday, some losses and some gains
I just thought about stopping losses on this floating loss, playing altcoins is like a battle between left and right brain
Want to go long at low prices, want to short when high BTC increased from 260 to 360 coins, ETH increased from 1637 to 3719 coins, all within just 6 minutes.
According to ChainCatcher based on Hyperliquid on-chain data: Address 0xec4a…cf62 continuously added two long positions from 13:24 to 13:30 today.
The BTC long position is about 360 coins, valued at approximately $30.93 million, with an opening average price of 84931 and a liquidation price around 63450;
The ETH long position is about 3719 coins, valued at approximately $10.09 million, with an opening average price of 2689 and a liquidation price as low as about 533.
The two positions total about $41 million. At the time of writing, BTC on OKX is about 86302, ETH about 2728, both positions are in slight floating profit.
My view: The ETH liquidation price pressed down to 533 is almost like a spot long with little leverage, clearly not afraid of a pullback; the BTC liquidation price still has about 26% room from the current price, which is not aggressive. This kind of addition looks more like a mid-to-long-term position build-up rather than a short-term gamble.
But a reminder: The position of a single address can change at any time, adding positions does not mean the direction is fixed, think about your own stop loss before copying trades. $BTC $ETH DOGE's hash power landscape has gained a new type of player. Nasdaq-listed company Thumzup Media has brought Dogehash under its wing, with 3,500 Antminer L9 rigs deployed in North American data centers. For the first time, DOGE mining is operating at the scale of a publicly listed company: with public financial reports, shareholder letters, and board governance, the mining farms are transitioning from workshops to public companies.
Previously, DOGE merged mining with Litecoin concentrated hash power in a few Asian mining pools, with mining farms relying on cheap electricity and concentrated both in operators and geography. The entry of a listed company has rewritten this structure. Each L9 rig has about 16G hash power, and 3,500 units total over 50T. This batch of hash power is distributed across multiple regulated data centers spanning different jurisdictions, diluting the impact of policy changes in any single region on the network and thereby enhancing censorship resistance.
The change also extends to the capital level. The listed miner uses equity financing to purchase machines and uses coin production revenue to strengthen its treasury. DOGE's production side has connected to the cash flow of traditional capital markets. Institutionalization of hash power is not just about new machines coming online—it signifies that the pricing power of $DOGE network security is beginning to shift from mining pools to the public market.After Friday's non-farm payroll event, Ethereum rallied to around 2780
Then it slowly declined to around 2650 in the evening
Bounced back to around 2680
After two days of slight fluctuations over the weekend
Currently, looking at the four-hour chart, there is still room for an upward move
ETH slight pause recommendation: go long near 2700, add more at 2670, target 2740.
If there is a major drop, everyone should avoid entering the market and wait for a clear direction before entering $ETH long positions strongly captured 1355u!
The Ethereum long positions easily took the gain, as mentioned at noon Ethereum has already stabilized at 2700. Many are going long at this level, and once it breaks above 2760, a large short position will be liquidated.
Xixi entered a long position on Ethereum at 2687 and reached 2724, already floating a profit of 1355u, and is still holding. Those who also entered long positions can target 2770.
Will continue to guide fans to stealthily enter $BTC $SOL intraday
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 10月5日—10月11日全球宏观指引：宏观数据真空期，加息延期，债市不退！从美国就业降温转向全球主权债压力测试！ 上周，美联储副主席+纽约联储主席发声，PCE下修+非农数据降温，综合因素下让10月二次加息概率大幅下降 目前市场的核心矛盾从10月是否加息变为Fed加息暂停但是为何全球长债收益率仍然降不下来？ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 第一条主线——10月二次加息被PCE与非农打断： 上周8月PCE下修+非农大幅弱于预期，两个数据让Fed加息政策空间被压缩，导致10月加息概率降低为18.3% 但是在利率上依旧不能转向乐观，因为10月加息概率降低并不代表后续Fed不会继续加息，同步12月加息概率被提升至67.1% 概率12月加息刚走出50%的不确定性阶段还未进行初步定价，一旦后续数据刺激下让12月加息概率提升至70%，意味着很多机构依旧要对12月加息进行提前计价与交易 所以，加息目前只是被延期而不是完全打断，想要打断加息，要看后续CPI PCE 是否继续上涨或者保持粘性，就业数据是否继续走弱，以及国际能源价格能否回归常态化 第二条主线——10月7日凌晨2点，Fed9月议息会议记录，To judge the vitality of a crypto asset, don't just look at the price curve; look at its exchange density. DOGE is listed on 1,526 active markets, ranking among the top five crypto assets by number of exchanges — this structure explains its position better than market cap rankings.
Liquidity fragmentation is often seen as a drawback, but for DOGE it becomes resilience. 1,526 markets mean the depth is spread thinly across each exchange, with limited order book size at any single point, but ample total volume. No single node holds decisive power. From Tokyo to São Paulo to Istanbul, buy orders relay across time zones, and DOGE's order book experiences three sunrises a day.
Geographic dispersion rewrites the algorithm of regulatory risk. If one country tightens policies and its local exchanges go dark, order books in other time zones continue operating as usual; if one platform delists, liquidity reaggregates across hundreds of markets. Many higher market cap assets concentrate depth on a few leading platforms, so a single regulatory action can drain most liquidity; $DOGE takes a different path, trading breadth for security. Its risk does not depend on the stance of any single jurisdiction but on the probability that hundreds of markets worldwide simultaneously lose interest — which is obviously much harder to happen.
An asset born from a joke, relying on over a decade of community listings and transfers, has embedded itself into the foundation of the global trading network. Its moat is not in code, nor in a foundation's treasury, but in these 1,526 windows that never close simultaneously.Monday Market Overview: $BTC is stagnant, but on-chain whales are quietly moving bricks 🐋
As usual, let's talk about the market. 🌞
First, the signals: BTC is fluctuating narrowly around 85,000, but large on-chain holders are not quiet. In the past 10 days, addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 41,025 BTC, with total holdings at 13.64 million BTC, accounting for 67.93% of circulation, the highest since mid-August. Retail holders with less than 0.01 BTC have barely moved, staying flat.
More subtle is the exchange situation: total BTC balance on all exchanges is about 2.68 million BTC, the lowest since 2023. The inflow-outflow ratio is 0.97, with a net outflow of 6,762 BTC in the first week of October. Coins are leaving platforms, but the price remains sideways — this kind of chip migration is more worth watching than candlestick charts.
Also, ancient addresses are waking up: on October 4, 801 BTC that had been dormant for 13.1 years were activated, worth $68.29 million; on the same day, another 13-year-old whale moved 1,346 BTC, with a cost basis of 240,000 and a floating profit exceeding 100 million. Old money is testing, new money is accumulating, directions may not be the same, but both are moving.
📋 My view:
1. Sideways movement is not directionless; it’s a turnover.
2. Exchange balances are decreasing, selling pressure is easing, but don’t rush to chase.
3. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve and ECB minutes; volatility may be triggered by news.
💬 Brothers, with this kind of "price sideways, chips moving" market, which side are you on? Let's discuss in the comments.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 I roughly calculated based on 1.2 million per day now, about $280,000 is still being used daily to buy and burn PONS, totaling just over 100 million in a year.
PONS currently has a market cap of 283 million. Buying back over 100 million in a year, the market cap is still only 280 million. To put it bluntly, the market just doesn't believe it can earn that much next year.
Why the disbelief? A few reasons I can think of happen to coincide.
The data from early September was somewhat inflated. When Robinhood Chain launched on July 1, it offered 90 days of gas fee waivers, so issuing tokens basically cost nothing, and many people issued dozens daily hoping for luck.
This subsidy expired on September 29, but actually, people started withdrawing in mid-September. On September 16, the total transaction volume across all launchpads on the chain was only 399 million, whereas in previous weeks it was over 600 million daily. The chain's transaction volume dropped by nearly 40% in a month.
Then there was the Wazz investigation on September 27, which dealt a significant blow to sentiment. It reported that a group issued 53 tokens in two months, scamming at least $18.43 million, 34 of which were issued using Pons V2.
V2 originally had an anti-sniping design: buying within the first few seconds of launch incurred a 99% tax, but the issuer could exempt up to 32 wallets from tax. This group added their own wallets to the exemption list and swept the chips within one second of launch.
The projects issued by users exploited a loophole in the rules; the PONS contract and buyback funds were not compromised. The Block also verified the method, but they did not independently verify the $18.43 million figure.【Cross-border Nuclear Bomb! OKX and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Joint Venture Apply to the US SEC for Tokenized US Stock Trading】
According to OKX and other sources, OKX and Intercontinental Exchange have jointly submitted an application to the SEC to launch tokenized US stock trading.Why are some still shorting $BTC even when it has risen to 86202? Because they see resistance at 86963 and think it will fall. But in a real trend, resistance levels are meant to be broken through, not to guess the top. I lost 200,000 U because I used to short at resistance levels and got stopped out. Now I've learned: when the trend is up, only go long; enter on a pullback to support at 86000, stop loss at 85800, target 86963, and if broken, look to 87500. Open a position with 5000 U, always use stop loss to avoid holding losing trades. Remember this: don't guess the top in a trend, don't chase trades in a range. $BTC #$PONS has dropped like this, is there a fundamental problem? Revenue has decreased by 80%, can the buyback still hold?
PONS fell from 0.97 to 0.41 in the past month. Since I mentioned holding it before, many friends have privately messaged me asking mostly the same question: is there a fundamental problem with the project?
First, let me explain myself. I started buying at 0.5 and kept buying up to now, currently at a loss. So I want to understand this issue more than anyone else. In the past few days, I have reviewed basically all the data I could find.
The fundamentals are not bad, but indeed not as good as they looked at the beginning of September. Everyone has seen the coin price, but there is a detail many people missed: PONS closed at 0.44 on September 1st, now it’s 0.41, which is actually only a 7% drop compared to a month ago. The feeling of continuous decline mainly comes from the spike to 0.97 on September 5th, and this past month has basically been a retracement.
Compared to September 1st, PONS’s daily transaction fees dropped from $4.56 million to $1.2 million, trading volume decreased by 80%, and daily newly issued coins fell from about 25,000 to less than 6,000. On September 3rd, it collected nearly $6 million in fees in one day, more than Pump and Hyperliquid, and the coin price at that time was calculated based on these figures. $HYPE
But the buyback is still ongoing. PONS’s rule is that 70% of the fees go to the coin issuers, 30% go to the protocol, and the protocol uses 80% of its share to buy back PONS, which is then immediately burned.#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元
Everyone thought on-chain US stocks were just another channel for stock trading, but what really needs attention is
stablecoin interest is being eroded by tokenized US stocks
In the past, people could only earn meager DeFi interest by holding USDC on-chain. Now, by directly swapping for tokenized US stocks, you can not only benefit from the long-term appreciation of quality US stock assets but also use them anytime as underlying collateral for borrowing. The fundamental stablecoin function in the crypto market is quietly being replaced by tokenized US stocks
A Trojan horse for bridging traditional capital
This is not a small game for retail investors. For example, Aave V4 allows US stocks as collateral, directly leveraging institutional arbitrage. Traditional capital doesn't need to withdraw money back to the banking system; the capital loop between US stock assets and DeFi lending can be completed on-chain, with terrifyingly high capital efficiency
Price discovery rights in emergencies force traditional exchanges
Currently, tokenized US stock trading volumes on platforms like Uniswap or Raydium are already astonishing. Once tech giants release major positive or negative news outside US stock trading hours, the most sensitive price movements and real trading volumes are likely to first erupt on-chain, which will then inversely determine the traditional stock market trend after opening
Next, RWA will likely accelerate seizing funds from altcoins without business support. Wall Street will never wait to die; they will directly connect to or acquire public chain clearing layers, eventually evolving into a new form where the front end is traditional brokers and the back end clearing is entirely on public chains like Solana
$AAPL $TSLA $NVDA Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 minutes
$PUMP negative fee rate is at a seven-day low for the same period: current 4-hour fee rate -0.0055%, price +0.02%, open interest +0.75%. Total position expansion, price has no significant push yet, short cross-settlement still has holding costs corresponding to the current fee rate.$BTC currently at 86202, 24h increase of 1.44%, high 86963, low 84883. Triple confirmation: previous high 86963 forms strong resistance, round number 87000 forms secondary resistance, support at 86000 is a round number, 84883 is previous low support. Operation advice: light long positions in the 86000-86200 range, stop loss at 85800, first target 86963, breakout target 87500; if 86963 is resisted, short for a short position, stop loss at 87200, target 86500. Recovering from a 200,000 U loss, strictly following 5000 U opening positions and 2% stop loss discipline, no holding losing positions. $ #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 The biggest failed trade this year was continuously swing trading $ENA in the bear market
Because I firmly believed it would rise, I basically bought mindlessly at low prices.
Swing trading rewarded me with sweet gains multiple times.
But I didn't catch any of the subsequent trending moves.
This is how the wrong approach rewards you, causing you to make even bigger mistakes$UNI This ID's viewpoint
UNI on the 30-minute level has formed an upward consolidation zone since the low of 8.444, currently oscillating and consolidating within this zone. Entry: Wait for a minor-level pullback to the lower edge of the consolidation zone and a bottom fractal signal before entering. Stop loss: the low point at 8.444.
Chan Theory Structure
On the 30-minute chart, 8.444 is the starting low of this rally; the purple box represents the consolidation zone formed during this upward move. The market is tugging back and forth within the consolidation zone, representing an upward continuation structure. There are two possible paths ahead: a minor-level breakout above the upper edge of the consolidation zone to start an upward departure phase; or a downward move that must not effectively break below 8.444. If this low is breached, the current 30-minute upward structure is invalidated.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
During the consolidation phase, the volume during upward rebounds is muted, with no strong demand surge; volume gradually contracts during pullbacks, indicating selling pressure is slowly weakening. The recent rally lacks volume support, representing a volume-less probe, and no confirmation signal of active main force capital entering has been observed yet.
Key Observation Points
Focus on whether volume can increase to firmly hold above the upper boundary of the consolidation zone; only after stabilizing there is a chance to expand upward. Do not blindly chase highs within the consolidation range; patiently wait for pullback stabilization signals.Let me tell you, $BTC has pulled from 85600 to 86202, this rebound is quite strong. The support at 86000 has already held steady, and the resistance at 86963 is just above. I opened a long position near 86000 and have gained over 200 points now. My plan is to take half profit at 86800 first, then set a trailing stop loss at 86300 for the rest. If it breaks 86963, I'll hold to see 87500; if not, I'll close all positions. Currently recovering from a 200,000 U loss, so I'll take some profit and run, not greedy. Opened a position with 5000 U, no holding without stop loss, securing profits is the hard truth. What do you think, should I leave or exit at this position? $BTC #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要