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[Old Leek Observation] Medium to high risk
$BTTC has a catalyst that I think is easily overlooked.
BitTorrent launched a long-term buyback and burn plan this year:
100% of decentralized service revenue is used to buy back BTT from the market, then burn it.
The first quarter buyback has already taken place, and now the real key is:
In mid-October, BitTorrent will announce the first actual burn data.
Including how much BTT was burned, what percentage of the total supply that represents, and the on-chain transaction hash.
Currently, BTT is still around $0.00000037, basically trading sideways in recent days.
That means:
The buyback has happened, but the burn has not been announced yet.
If the first burn amount exceeds expectations, the market may start to reprice this story.
Entry: $0.000000360–$0.000000380
Take profit: $0.000000410 / $0.000000450 / $0.000000500 / $0.000000570 / $0.000000650
Stop loss: $0.000000335 $BTC just got the reaction many were waiting for.
Price pushed lower as liquidity built beneath the market, then tapped directly into the key support zone — and the sharp rejection wick shows buyers are still defending that area.
But don’t get too comfortable yet.
There could still be another sweep lower to hunt remaining liquidity and shake out weak hands.
If that liquidity gets cleared and buyers step in with confirmation, the setup could flip quickly:
#OKXOrbitTopics 盘面在笑，资金却在悄悄换座位 你有没有过那种感觉：价格没怎么跌，但心里就是不踏实？ 这两天看ETF数据，我有点这种感觉。$BTC 的流入依旧稳，像那种不怎么说话但一直在买单的人。$ETH 却在持续流出，而且不是一笔两笔的偶然，是那种连续好几天的、安静的撤退。$SOL 呢，小幅流入，不冷不热，像在门口张望的人。 同一个市场，同一根K线，底下的钱却在做不一样的选择。 这件事真正值得琢磨的地方在于：价格是最后才说话的。ETF的申赎数据比盘面更早暴露偏好变化。当BTC持续被吸走、ETH被赎回，说明机构端的风险预算并没有整体扩张，而是在做内部调仓。这不是全面看多，也不是全面看空，是有人在换仓，有人在收口袋。 我最近越来越觉得，风险管理不是等跌了才想起来的事。它更像是一种提前的嗅觉。你看到ETH流出，不一定代表它要崩，但它可能意味着：在当前的宏观节奏里，部分资金更愿意把筹码放在确定性更高的地方。BTC的强势流入和ETH的流出放在一起看，这不是轮动，这是偏好的收窄。 偏多的路径也很清楚：如果BTC的流入能持续，并且开始带动ETH的流出放缓甚至回流，那说明风险偏好是在扩散的，山寨和SOL这类高betaWashington is moving from broad debate toward operational questions: who may run markets, who may hold assets, and under what safeguards.
The CFTC request and SEC custody proposal are not final rules, but together they suggest the next competitive edge may be compliance architecture, not just product velocity. The key test is whether final language creates workable paths without fragmenting oversight.
#USCryptoRulesMoveAhead Serial 09) On the way to work
Cold water splashed on her face, the person in the mirror had red eyes at the corners, as if just pinched by someone.
She lowered her head to brush her teeth, and suddenly a thought emerged from the foam:
"Only the last three digits differ" is not a coincidence.
0x4fec…a999
Hers: a996
The other party: a999
In between are a997 and a998.
Like a narrow bridge, three planks with two missing, a person standing opposite, and a deep valley beneath their feet.
She spat out the toothpaste foam, and her phone vibrated.
It wasn’t a reply from that address. It was a market alert:
"$LAIKA 24h +38.7% Tags: meme / space dog / burned"
Laika was burned to death. Now the token says "burned."
The person on the ground made the most painful word into decoration next to the K-line chart.
Before leaving, she copied that string of addresses onto a sticky note and stuck it on the corner of the mirror:
People in the same pool, do you dare to reveal a997 and a998 as well?
The three of us make up an unfinished suicide note.
The subway was packed with people. Everyone was looking at screens.
Some watched US stocks, some looked at OKX NOW’s "All-Weather Market" pop-up, some scrolled through LAIKA memes on XLayer—
A dog head wearing an astronaut helmet, captioned "to the moon," like a joke, yet like a requiem.
0x4fec966f98d8530507787d947d1ab24fa145a999ETH has a real ecosystem: DeFi TVL remains at the hundreds of billions of dollars level, and stablecoin supply continues to grow. These are facts.
But ETH also has real issues: 786,000 ETH queued for staking exit, ancient whales cashing out 235x profits at $2728, $138 million outflow from ETH ETF in one week, ETH/BTC ratio continuously weakening, and $983 million longs below 2583 waiting to be liquidated.
2600 is not "support." 2600 is the "starting point where long stop-losses are triggered." The next key level is 2583. If 2583 is effectively broken, the $983 million long liquidation will cause a second wave of stampede.
Don't talk about bottom-fishing on the night when 786,000 ETH are queued to exit. First, see if 2583 can hold.
(The above content does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks; only those alive have the right to talk about the future.) $BTC $ETH $SOL #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 I think the recent surge over the past few days is just to get someone to take over and pay attention to spcx, increasing liquidity. Waiting for the 9th might be to pump the price high for selling and letting others take over. Many people are trapped at the top; it won't go up that high so quickly. The market cap and P/E ratio are still negative, so it won't be easy to push it up. Maybe something starting with 2 or 3 could work in the future, but it's hard to be aggressive now. Anyway, I shorted at over 175, not sure if I can make some profit.XCH dollar-cost averaging is suitable for:
office workers, beginners in financial management, those who don't have time to monitor the market or are afraid of timing mistakes.🔷 USDG from Paxos launched on $ARB
• Global Dollar (USDG) from Paxos on Arbitrum One
• Market cap: ~$3.09B (7th stablecoin)
• Integration: Fluid, Morpho, GMX, Maple
• ArbitrumDAO: 100M ARB incentive
• On Arbitrum: ~$4B stablecoins
🧠 Paxos (regulated issuer) launches USDG on Arbitrum. DeFi integration + 100M ARB incentive. Most USDG is still on other networks
❓ Will it help Arbitrum's growth?👇NEAR Analysis and Practical Thoughts
During this wave of ETH falling below 2626, it's clear who is strong and who is weak, and that is NEAR.
The three red boxes represent NEAR's performance during three ETH retracement phases. Market signals don't lie.
Once ETH truly breaks out in a main upward move, NEAR still has great potential.
Continue to follow NEAR as the strongest asset to track.
I have no advice on going long or short now because I don't plan to build positions in altcoins currently.
If going long, I would only choose BTC. I hope everyone stays cautious!! #SpaceX plans to raise $40 billion to purchase Nvidia chips
The leader has something to say
SpaceX is negotiating a $40 billion debt financing to buy Nvidia AI chips. The structure is $10 billion in bank loans plus $30 billion in investment-grade debt, led by Apollo, to be completed in 2027, currently still in discussion.
AI computing power expansion is still accelerating, and money continues to be poured into hardware. This is indirectly bearish for crypto, as risk capital stays in chips and cloud infrastructure, drawing liquidity away from BTC and altcoins.
BTC will still follow macro trends in the short term. Long-term US Treasury yields are above 5.6%, the high-interest rate ceiling hasn't been broken, and ETF funds show BTC inflows and ETH outflows, with clear divergence. SpaceX financing won't change these.
My short position at 86500 is still open. The logic hasn't changed: bullish factors have been realized, resistance above is dense, and funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. Time to reduce positions, leaving the rest at breakeven.
Control your position size, don't overleverage. The Middle East situation is volatile, oil prices may jump anytime, keep stop losses on shorts, don't hold through.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Conclusion first: Among the entire market, 200 coins are falling, median -2.86%, CAP 24h up 9.53%, peak at 0.10097, volume ≈ $159M — a standalone move driven by capital, not a follow-up rally.
Market facts: The last 4H candle saw CAP rise from 0.0727 to 0.10097, nearly +39% in a single candle, with volume of 12.5M contracts, 10-40 times the average of the previous 4 candles. After the volume spike, it retraced to 0.085-0.087 and has been consolidating sideways for 7 1H candles, with volume dropping to 250-350K contracts — a typical "volume spike followed by volume contraction and controlled consolidation," not a trend continuation.
Data confirmation: OI $4.45M, 24h vol/OI = 35.7x, incremental capital is indeed coming in. Funding rate last period was -0.0009%, just flipped to +0.0050%, neutral bias, no crowding.
Unlike today's NMR and SAND which went against the trend — those two had X-Perp listing themes, CAP is purely market-driven capital behavior.
Risk: The single 4H high at 0.10097 was not held, heavy trapped positions above 0.09; current price is exactly the 50% retracement of the volume spike candle, a battleground for bulls and bears.
What do you think this "volume spike followed by volume contraction and sideways consolidation" is — a shakeout or distribution? After this week for CAP, the answer will be clear.$ETH moving from $2,720 to $2,590 isn’t a panic dump — it’s a normal pullback inside the current range. The $2,590 area attracted buyers, showing that demand is still present.
$BTC around $84K remains the key level. Hold it, and ETH could reclaim $2,700. Lose it, and the downside could extend toward $80K on BTC and $2,500 on ETH.
🇮🇷 Iran headlines and rate expectations are background factors, not the main signal. Liquidity and capital flows move price first.
#DailyOrbit To be honest, it's actually quite ridiculous
Over the past three months, I've been hoping to double my money. I put in a total of six or seven hundred U, hoping to double it, then withdraw the principal and continue slowly.
Unfortunately, things didn't go as planned.
Just when I was about to double, the storage sector kept hitting new lows. I blew up two accounts in total, leaving only one European account. Then I played around while writing posts, and even did some short-term work during that time.
After making some quick money, I did short-term work and found it quite tough and slow to earn. Later, I quit the job and started trading crypto. That month the market was bad, altcoins were rampant, and I kept getting stopped out, losing over 300 U gradually. Later, before ZEC started to rise, I was already shorting it. I felt very unwilling, so I kept stop-lossing, blowing up accounts and stop-lossing again, losing another 400 U gradually. Then I withdrew 200 U, leaving just over 100 U. With that 100+ U, I wrote posts to earn creator fees while trading. Slowly, that last 100+ U was all blown up and gone.
To be honest, I'm quite grateful to this post, uh, for bringing me over 300 U in earnings, which has allowed me to sustain until now and play slowly, also providing me with the principal to recover my losses.
Altogether, this post has given me over 360 U, more than 2000 yuan, which became my final principal.
Now I still have 90 U left, of course, I'm still writing posts.
One of the more difficult things for me earlier was that I didn't make much money from trades, and usually had little traffic, which made me quite anxious $BTC wants Bitcoin miners to sell fewer coins, and one possible way is: to restart nuclear power plants.
VanEck's CEO Jan van Eck recently proposed an idea: AI data centers and Bitcoin mining are actually competing for the same thing — cheap and stable electricity. If the U.S. further approves and restarts nuclear power projects, the additional low-cost power supply could theoretically improve the economics of both businesses and also ease the pressure on miners to "sell coins just to pay the electricity bill."
First, why miners have to sell. Mining is a business where electricity costs must be paid in cash and are the most rigid expense. When coin prices are good, mined coins can be held; when prices are bad, miners can only sell as much as they mine to cover electricity costs first. Under this year's market conditions, miners' daily income has shrunk by about 40% year-over-year, and the hashprice once dropped to around $30 per PH per day — many companies sell coins not because they are bearish on the market, but because they really need cash on hand.
If electricity costs can be reduced, the equation changes. This is also van Eck's logic: restarting nuclear power brings long-term, stable, and lower-priced electricity, so miners no longer have to rely on selling newly mined coins to maintain cash flow.
But an even more interesting change is — miners are no longer just mining.destruction. This is executed automatically on-chain, not manually by the team.
2. Is there a burn every day?
In theory: As long as transaction fees flow into the vault and meet the minimum threshold, buyback and burn will be executed; the higher the trading volume, the more frequent the burns.
But it does not necessarily happen every day: if the vault balance does not reach the trigger threshold, no burn occurs that day. As shown in the screenshot page: on October 6, the burn was zero, The wall hasn't fallen yet, don't rush to chase
The most frustrating thing about the market isn't the decline, but that every time it just starts to rise, it gets pushed back down.
BTC is repeatedly tugging around 85600, and 87000 feels like a door that hasn't been opened for the third time. Fortunately, the lows are gradually getting higher, indicating the bulls haven't withdrawn; but the selling pressure above is indeed heavy. Around 85000 can hold for now, the real decisive point is still 87000: only with a volume-backed hold above it can we expect 88000 or even 90000; if it breaks below 84500, this consolidation is likely to first wash downwards.
ETH is running alongside near 2710, the 2700 round number hasn't been lost for now. What it lacks isn't a sudden spike, but whether it can reclaim 2750. After standing above that, 2800–2850 becomes worth expecting; 2650 is short-term defense, falling back there means funds still prefer BTC.
SOL is grinding back and forth near 120, with 118–122 becoming a narrow alley. There's elasticity but limited sustainability. 122 is the most immediate threshold; only a volume breakout can target 126; if 117–118 doesn't break, the structure isn't broken yet. It seems more like it's waiting for BTC to hit the wall first.
Currently, the three keys are: BTC 87000, ETH 2750, SOL 122. Without BTC breaking the wall first, the latter two are hard to truly accelerate.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 BTC Practical Thoughts and Follow-up Arrangements Today
Conclusion first:
Use a reasonable approach to bottom-fishing; I have already bottom-fished part of my position at 83800.
If it falls to 82500 but does not break below, continue bottom-fishing.
Reasoning:
Compared to ETH, BTC's support strength is still stronger and more stable. Neither has directly plunged below 82500. It is still trading within the range.
Currently, there is a downward trend on the 4H chart within the range, so a one-sided upward trend is unlikely in the short term; it will be quite testing and require patience.
There might be a rebound on the 1H chart with a peak around 85000, but don't expect too much. ⚠️ ETH ON-CHAIN PRESSURE IS RISING
Ethereum’s staking exit queue has jumped from 166K to 851K ETH, nearly a 5× increase. On top of that, around 786K ETH is queued for unlocking over the next two weeks, creating a potential source of additional selling pressure.
💸 ETF flows are also showing a clear shift.
ETH ETFs recorded roughly $206M in net outflows over five consecutive days, while BTC ETFs attracted around $241M in net inflows over the same period.
#DailyOrbit #BTCWhalePressureEases Losing for a day feels terrible, and even three days of gains can't make it up.
Everyone who has ever held a position has experienced this asymmetry.
The same amount of fluctuation feels exponentially more painful when going down,
while the pleasure when going up is discounted.
This feeling is naturally biased, and it has little to do with mental toughness.
On the few consecutive profitable days, even refreshing the market feels uplifting, and everything on the chart looks good.
After losing two days in a row, the same chart looks full of problems,
and when the price retraces a bit, you think you were overly optimistic at first.
People end up closing their positions in this back-and-forth.
This bias is deeply hidden. The losing trades are remembered clearly,
every line that hit the price is recalled. The winning trades, however, are all blurred, leaving only the result.
This memory stays, and the pain naturally intensifies year after year.
When the pain amplifies, the hands can't stay still.
Even a normal retracement during an upward move feels like the entire trend is collapsing.
The decisions made in those panicked minutes often don't hold up in hindsight.
A simple way to distinguish is to compare the amplitude to the pain.
Compare the amplitude already moved with the current retracement; if the pain doesn't match this ratio,
then the discomfort is just emotional hype.
For coins like $SOL with large volatility, the pain from a drop always arrives before the pleasure from a rise.
The current drop, viewed in the context of the entire upward move, isn't very deep, yet the pain is maxed out first.
When the discomfort rises, lay out the two amplitudes side by side,
The numbers in front of you are more reliable than the turbulent feelings inside, and the position is often checked against this comparison.The short position on $SKHYNIX will be left untouched for now; we'll see tonight
if $TEM recovers and then reallocate positions accordingly.
If SKHYNIX breaks 1264 but fails to hold, be ready to further increase positions during the subsequent rebound.
The current situation is that the market index is hitting new highs, but the flow is all going to cash flow giants. Even storage isn't seeing continued capital inflow; the market style is shifting a bit. Other profits haven't materialized yet, and selling pressure is quite heavy, as expectations for Q3 earnings are being preemptively discounted.
Long-term bond yields remain high. No one is buying bonds; risk-averse funds are choosing US stock cash flow giants instead of diversifying.
It's really a case of the index rising but individual stocks not going up. #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% Bro, let me tell you something. BTC is currently at 84197.1, resistance at 85000, support at 84000, leaning bearish.
At this level, I tell you, don't try to catch the bottom. I used to be stubborn, tried to catch the bottom at 84000, but it dropped to 82000, losing 50,000U. Half of my 200,000U loss was from this.
Now I've learned my lesson: small position of 5000U, short if it breaks 84000, stop loss at 84300, target 83500. You can also short if it rebounds and hits resistance at 85000.
Take my advice, trade with the trend, don't hold losing positions, it's better than anything. $BTC #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 🟨 $CELO is trading inside a descending triangle with clear resistance above
A breakout above these barriers could trigger a move towards targets at $0.94 and $1.35🎯ETH's recent plunge might be even more concerning than BTC's.
When BTC dips, ETH accelerates its drop, falling over 3% in 24 hours, hitting a low near $2,590. The issue isn't just a single candlestick but a continuous weakening of capital flow.
The US spot ETH ETF has seen consecutive net outflows, with about $50.76 million withdrawn on October 5 alone, totaling approximately $206 million over the past five trading days. Institutional buying support has clearly weakened. On the derivatives side, it's not just panic: ETH leverage has dropped to about a 7-month low, yet sellers remain aggressive. This indicates that spot capital withdrawal and contract deleveraging are happening simultaneously.
So when BTC falls, ETH's volatility is further amplified.
I'm not rushing to judge whether ETH has peaked; the key is whether it can quickly reclaim the recently broken level. If BTC stabilizes and ETH swiftly recovers, it looks more like a leveraged shakeout; if the rebound remains weak and ETF outflows continue, short-term pressure may not be fully relieved.
Do you think ETH is just shaking out or that funds are truly pulling out? At this level, would you dare to buy in?
BTC ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extreme risk; position sizing and stop-loss must be prioritized.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ $CORE 🔥 The death loop has already locked in, and CORE alone cannot sustain the market with just narrative.
The ecosystem is regressing instead of progressing; affiliated ecosystem projects are collapsing one after another, nodes continue to leave, and staking growth has completely stalled. The entire staking market is entirely reliant on BTC funds as a backstop, with CORE's own staking volume being negligible.
Many are obsessed with staking data, treating on-chain numbers as great news. But staking is just a facade; tokens without intrinsic value are just castles in the air, no matter how impressive the data looks.
The project keeps revolving around narratives tied to Bitcoin, lacking substantial implementation for a long time, and the business is stagnant.
Without tangible results, no new external funds will enter; without incremental funds, prices are hard to rebound; with the market continuously sluggish, users are further discouraged and remain on the sidelines. Each link is connected, trapped in a closed loop, making it difficult to break out.
Even if Bitcoin enters a bull market, it’s hard to drive CORE into an independent rally; once the market corrects, its decline often far exceeds BTC. Consensus maintained purely by storytelling cannot withstand continuous fundamental tests.
⚠️ Risk reminder: The above is only personal opinion sharing. Virtual currencies are not protected by domestic laws, carry extremely high risks, and do not constitute any investment advice. August PCE (released Sept 26) printed 2.7% YoY, core 2.9%. Still above 2% target, but trending down. Fed cares more about jobs than PCE right now. One hot CPI in October can undo the cut narrative — watch Oct 14.10.7 Gold Spot Afternoon Strategy Sharing
Central banks continue to increase holdings + physical demand supports the bottom. Although there is short-term pressure, the long-term value of gold remains solid. Domestic central banks have increased gold reserves for 23 consecutive months, with an additional 23.02 tons added by the end of September, bringing the total reserves to 2409.59 tons.
More importantly, the 1-hour MACD indicator formed a golden cross below the zero line, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. If the price can hold above 4120, it will confirm the establishment of a short-term bottom structure, with subsequent rebound targets in the 4180-4200 range.
Trading reference
Buy around 4115-4125, target 4150, 4180, 4200
$XAUT After enduring a major purge, Big Bro Maji didn't cut positions; he directly exposed a $130 million open position.
BTC long 40x full position with 125 coins, entry at 84888.5, unrealized loss -97,300; liquidation price at 57478 is still some distance away, but funding fees are burning daily. ETH long 25x full position with 38,300 coins, entry at 2682.99, unrealized loss -2,897,000, the most painful part of the entire position. HYPE long 10x full position with 155,000 coins, +45,100, currently the only position with unrealized profit, but also paying funding fees.
Heavy mainstream positions for ballast, small positions to chase heat, this strategy remains unchanged. The real bet is: after ETH washes out the chasing high positions, it can regain explosive power ahead of the broader market.
The problem is, it can withstand volatility but not time. When prices move sideways, funding fees continuously erode net value; if another sharp drop occurs, ETH's leverage will suffer first.
Right now, he's not betting on direction, but on the speed at which the purge ends.
Do you think this ETH wave will rebound first, or continue to be worn down by funding fees?
BTC ETH $HYPE #Bitcoin #Ethereum #FuturesTrading
The above is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extreme risk; position sizing and stop-loss must be prioritized.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ 最後來從消息面，還有後續要觀察哪些，來跟大家做個結尾。 昨晚到今天下午（台灣時間）的重點： ▌盤面 清單 15:01 前後：BTC 84,170.3 跌 1.56%，ETH 2,615.86 跌 2.99%，SOL 118.71 跌 1.61%，DOGE 0.09073 跌 3.11%，XRP 現貨 1.4745 跌 1.51%。漲跌幅以台北早上 8 點為起點。 短線回落跟先前判斷一致，四個空單方向都走出一段。 ▌為什麼跌 CoinDesk：伊朗加強攻擊荷姆茲海峽一帶的油輪，布蘭特原油漲近 1%、約 101.5 美元；美元走強，10 年期美債殖利率上升 3 個基點到 5.31%。 ▌強平與情緒 BeInCrypto 引 CoinGlass：一小時內多單被強平約 4.04 億美元；24 小時全市場約 5.55 億美元。 swolecharts（截至 15:06）：24 小時強平約 2.60 億，多 2.21 億、空 3,959 萬。 恐懼貪婪指數 71，昨天 73。 ▌ETF 週二（10/6） BTC 現貨型 +118.8M：IBIT +122.0M、MSBT +7.8M，BTC 迷你信$BTC
Bitcoin hasn’t really broken down — it’s still moving inside a range, but the bears are already getting loud. 😅
Right now, it’s simply a battle between buyers and sellers. Until one side takes control, there’s no reason to call for a breakout.
As mentioned before, the bigger breakout window could come with next Wednesday’s CPI release.
If BTC wants to break out earlier, it needs to reclaim and push above $86.7K with strength. Last night, that level held as resistance.
#DailyOrbit 1️⃣ Honestly, this holiday couldn’t have gone much better. Seven days off and turning roughly 900 CNY into 15,600 CNY — definitely a memorable run. Yesterday I stayed patient instead of chasing the move, while some friends may have taken the opportunity to short near the daily high. 2️⃣ Still holding my bearish view on $ZEC. I’m continuing to watch the downside closely. If selling pressure remains strong, I’m looking for a break below 1,280, with 1,100–1,150 as a possible target zone over the neMAS said "not under jurisdiction," $HYPE retraced -1.9%
MAS's statement dismantled $HYPE's registration claim: decentralized project, not under jurisdiction. Currently reported at 91.27, 24h -1.9%, daily range 89.21–93.92. Direction unchanged: buy the dip with a bullish outlook.
Daily RSI at 56.5 remains in the strong zone, MACD dead cross above zero line for 9 days, this is a correction, not a collapse; funding rate 4.554e-05 near zero line, bulls are holding without leverage; after the negative news, the price moved from 90.93 to 91.29, unable to push down shows the market stance.
BTC at 84246 is below ma7 at 85177, only 27/65 in the market are up, median change -2.832%, US stock crypto concept stocks average -1.01%, fear and greed index at 71 still in greed zone, OI vs archive -5.03%, retracement may deepen at any time.
Resistance above: 93.92
Support below: 87.65
Conclusion: The regulator's "not under jurisdiction" statement actually removed the negative impact, 91.27 price has enough odds. Enter directly at current price, cut losses if it breaks below 87.65, target extension if it stands above 93.92. Like and follow, will alert you first when the market moves.
$HYPE $BTCHere's something a bit counterintuitive: the whole market's fear and greed index is stuck in the "greed" zone, but money just isn't flowing into Dogecoin.
This morning's meeting was exhausting, so I used the excuse of going to the bathroom to scroll on my phone in the stall. I saw someone analyzing that ETF money is coming in, the overall market sentiment is rising, but Dogecoin is like a quiet corner that no one pays attention to.
Honestly, seeing this made me a bit sour at first. Other assets are rising, $DOGE is just lying there motionless; it's not easy not to feel bad about that.
But then I kept reading, and someone said Dogecoin has no staking rewards, no ETF channels to absorb new funds, and most holders are retail investors waiting for the wind to blow. In plain language: Dogecoin is supported by retail investors, not institutions.
I sat on the toilet lid thinking for a while and suddenly felt this was actually good. Institutional assets run away as soon as the wind stops, but retail assets stay even when the wind dies down. I'm a retail investor myself, and none of the guys I know holding Dogecoin plan to leave.
I came out of the bathroom, washed my face, and continued the meeting. Quiet corners will always have people passing by.Looking at BTC84197.1, I'm struggling inside: should I buy the dip?
Support at 84000 is right underfoot, resistance at 85000 overhead, the trend is bearish. My hands are itchy, I keep feeling it should rebound after such a drop. But the experience of losing 200,000U tells me this kind of thinking is the most dangerous.
Take a deep breath, tell myself: if uncertain, don't act, wait for a breakout. Small position of 5000U, short after breaking 84000, stop loss at 84300, target 83500.
The biggest enemy in trading is your own hands; control them, don't hold losing positions, only then can you survive. $BTC #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Lubin's associated wallet moved out 133,000 ETH, which is not a small amount. At the same time, a trader opened nearly $70 million in short positions on BTC and ETH, with 912 BTC and 10,000 ETH. The whales are in an even worse situation: 24.2 million were fished out in 2023, and another 25.6 million were liquidated yesterday, all converted into DAI and ETH. The on-chain signals are very clear; smart money is running.
Just finished registering visitors at Building 3, glanced at the market on the way back.
ETH current price is 2617, the pattern has already broken down. The moving averages are pressing tightly, MACD has a death cross heading down, and the rebound has no strength at all. The liquidation map shows a large cluster of long position liquidity below 2600 to 2615, which is clearly a hunting zone. The structure is a slow decline seeking a bottom; the bull traps are all fake.
In terms of operation, I only short. Enter shorts in batches when it rebounds to the 2625 to 2640 range, add positions near 2635. First take profit at 2590, second target at 2540. Place stop loss above 2665; if broken, admit the mistake and exit. You can also short directly at the current price, but control your position size. Don't try to catch the bottom; if 2600 breaks, the decline will accelerate.
$ETH
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
@OKX星球 #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes will be released at 2 AM tonight.
In September, the rate was unanimously raised by 25 basis points, and the dot plot indicates there is likely one more hike this year. The market currently bets on no change in October, with a possible move in December.
Key points of the minutes: internal disagreements on continuing rate hikes and inflation assessments. If hawkish, the market will be under pressure; if dovish, there will be some relief. 我們來整理一下操作上可以怎麼做吧 基準是 15:01 的 1 小時圖和清單報價。這一輪的重點只有一個：賺到的先顧好。 ━ 比特幣 空單：考慮止盈，可分批 續抱停損 87,300 做多：先等，方向出來再宣布 現約 84,170，跌在 CHoCH 之後，下方第一塊藍色需求區不遠 ━ 以太幣 2,780 空單：考慮止盈，風控自理 做多：先等等，不急著照 2,650／2,600 進 先前已有多單的停損仍是跌破 2,400 現約 2,616，貼著 Weak Low ━ Solana 120 附近空單：考慮止盈 續抱停損 140 做多：先等 現約 118.71，坐在 116～118 藍區上緣 ━ 狗狗幣 0.1 空單：考慮止盈 續抱停損 0.12 做多：先等 現約 0.0907，BOS 後 OKX 低點已碰過藍區 ━ 瑞波幣（現貨，看多） 做多 1.5 附近 加碼 1.45，或 1.4 停損：跌破 1.3 止盈 1.57 → 1.63 現約 1.4745，離 1.45 補點約 1.7% 資金費率：SOL、DOGE、XRP 這期翻負，BTC、ETH 仍是小正值（OKX，16:00 結算這期）。週四凌$XPL and $ENA both unlocked a large amount of tokens at the end of last month. Judging by this long-short ratio, if it were me, I'd definitely take out some longs first. A long-short ratio of around 2 points—would that really boost the longs? The main players aren't that foolish, right?$CT surged by 5%! A few days ago, I observed a downward trend in CT coin and later opened short positions.
At first, it went quite smoothly, and I closed the positions. The second time, with leverage, it opened higher—yesterday afternoon, CT suddenly broke upward unexpectedly, and there was no time to stop loss, resulting in a liquidation.
There must have been quite a few people liquidated at that time, right? Did anyone hold positions then? Today, feeling the trend was off, I didn’t open new positions, and sure enough, it broke upward.
New coins fluctuate greatly. If this trend continues upward, it might switch from short to long. Looking at the overall trend, there’s still a long trend line before the top.
But it’s hard to say; maybe there will be a breakout surge, or it could drop anytime. What do you all think about CT’s future performance? #标普500首次站上7800点，纳指再创新高 8 B-1B bombers flew back to the US overnight: It's not surrender, but the "frontline heavy equipment" fears being targeted by vans + drones
RAF Fairford, UK — One of the few European bases where the US military can support heavy B-1B "Lancer" bomber sorties, starting October 4th, waves of bombers took off back to the US mainland. Foreign media report "about 12 stationed, at least 8 leaving first," triggered by a straightforward reason: new threats of possible attacks on the base from "Iran-backed forces."
The storyline is not complicated:
At the end of September, several vans and fuel near the base were reported, UK counterterrorism arrested 6 people, who were later released on bail;
US intelligence says the plot involves "destroying aircraft + causing casualties," including drones/arson/riots;
Trump bluntly stated "there is a specific threat," Vance said "high caution," Rubio was more reserved;
Iran denied involvement, UK Prime Minister said "strong signs of Iranian involvement," UK and US are already out of sync on "bail or strict control."
The military aspect is the most painful:
B-1B has a large payload and excels at low-altitude penetration, but parked on the tarmac it is a multi-hundred-million-dollar target. Forward deployment saves range and refueling costs, betting on the host country's surrounding security; once "civilian vehicles + low-cost infiltration" can force strategic bombers to retreat, it shows the softest link of high-value platforms is not radar, but the base's main gate.The strong support at 850 resonance has been broken, and the long positions' stop losses below have basically been cleared out. Retail traders chasing shorts have caused a liquidation pattern with a heavy top and light bottom. Liquidity is insufficient below, but near 851, there is a large accumulation of high-leverage short liquidation orders.
Therefore, the main force may move upward to absorb the dense liquidity, easily causing a spike upward to clear out the leveraged positions chasing shorts. So the subsequent rebound to this area to wait for the short stop losses to be cleared before chasing shorts is also the idea I shared: rebound near the strong resistance zone around 850 to chase shorts, following the possible behavior of the market makers. If the rebound is weak and breaks below the previous low of 83500, then chase shorts again.Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$MINA top accounts are slightly bullish, with position size leaning bearish: account long-short ratio 1.25, position ratio 0.82; the difference in proportion between the two types of bulls narrowed by 1.2 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still leans bearish; this convergence has not yet caused the two indicators to align in the same direction.$XRP 100x short, opened at 1.5127, held at 1.4732, floating profit 261.12%.
Boundaries were drawn in advance, the upper band pressed nicely, the rebound volume gradually lightened, like keeping a rhythm.
Half position locked profit, base position spread with the trend. Only place reduced volume short orders at the upper band, withdraw if the line breaks. Good trading means: hands relaxed, mind clear, market follows my rhythm. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ On-chain risks intensify: the staking exit queue surged from 166,000 to 851,000 coins, nearly a 5-fold increase; additionally, 786,000 ETH are queued for unlocking, gradually releasing over two weeks, posing significant potential selling pressure.
$ETF funds continue to withdraw, with a net outflow of $206 million over five consecutive days; meanwhile, BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $241 million during the same period, showing clear capital preference for Bitcoin while ETH cools off. Michael Burry says the stock market is “stuck in denial” and a crash is coming.
At this point, Burry has become CT’s honorary High Dean of Failed Predictions. 😂
The man has been warning about crashes for years while the market repeatedly marches higher.
Maybe one day he’ll be right again.
Until then, I’ll keep trading the trend instead of trading somebody’s apocalypse narrative.
Respect the chart. Not the prophecy. 🫡 "Under New Highs, Cracks Have Appeared"
The three major U.S. stock indexes have again closed at new highs, and the screen is bustling. But focusing only on the indexes misses the other side: the memory chip supply chain is being sold off by capital. Seagate fell 9%, Western Digital dropped 7%, and SK Hynix declined over 6%. These hardware leaders that consume the most AI capital expenditure are collectively weakening amid the index rally.
This is not a simple rotation but an internal divergence. The brighter the index, the more it looks like a facade. True broad risk appetite should not be propped up by a few heavyweight stocks, nor should the core AI hardware be hit against the trend.
Therefore, the BTC and ETH short positions are still held. It’s not a bet that a crash will happen tomorrow, but a bet that this divergence of "hot indexes, cold chains" won’t last long. Price charts only show you red and green; capital flows tell you who is exiting. Beneath the fireworks of new highs, some have quietly retreated.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Gold prices are falling, but insurance policies are not selling hot
After peaking in August, gold has retraced more than 10%, dropping about 9% in September. However, the options market has not seen a "rush for insurance policies." CME gold options average daily volume is about 52,000 contracts, unchanged from August; implied volatility has decreased rather than increased. The GLD put/call ratio has dropped to 0.46, hitting a six-month low. Bearish contracts have relatively decreased, while bullish contracts still dominate.
The situation was completely opposite in June. When GLD fell 25% from its February high, premiums heavily bet on downside, with extreme bears even expecting gold prices to drop another 40% over two years. In this September decline, bears did not follow through, with more exiting through large block buy-to-covers.
Capital is redirecting. iShares Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows of about $2.7 billion in the same period, while GLD had about $1.4 billion. Bitcoin rose over 40% in Q3, breaking through $85,000 in early October. JPMorgan stated that Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive months, while gold ETFs continue to bleed.
Institutions no longer choose one or the other but view both as hedges against devaluation. In September, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold reached 0.8.
Gold is falling, but panic hasn't come; Bitcoin is rising, and capital is moving. The main player in devaluation trades is changing. $BTC $AAVE This ID's viewpoint (previous positions have been closed)
AAVE 30-minute chart: After a rise from 145.96, it has been oscillating for a long time within the purple major consolidation zone, with a high of 187.88. The current price has just broken below the lower boundary of the consolidation zone. Entry: If the rebound retests the lower boundary of the purple consolidation zone and encounters resistance with stagnation, a short position can be tried; Stop loss: if the price climbs back above the previous high of 187.88.
Chan Theory Structure
This 30-minute segment is a consolidation after an uptrend. Originally expected to be a continuation of the uptrend, but now the price has directly moved down out of the consolidation range. The balance of bulls and bears in the consolidation has been broken, and a new correction phase has begun. Two possible paths follow: if the rebound fails to return inside the consolidation, the correction continues; if it quickly pulls back into the purple consolidation zone, this breakdown is just a fakeout, and the range-bound oscillation continues.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
During the entire purple consolidation phase, volume remained generally stable, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth and no clear dominant force. The candlestick breaking downwards this time shows volume expanding simultaneously, indicating concentrated selling pressure from bears and weak support below, causing the price to follow the downward trend. During the rebound phase, volume noticeably shrinks, and buying interest is weak.
Key Observation Points
Focus on the price reaction when rebounding to the original lower boundary of the consolidation zone. If it is pressured and unable to rise, the bearish trend continues; if volume increases and the price recovers back into the purple consolidation zone, the breakdown is invalidated, and the market returns to a large range-bound oscillation. $ETH It seems like my long positions on Ethereum are stuck. After the epic crash this afternoon, $ETH surprisingly hasn't moved at all.
It hasn't retraced upwards nor dipped further; it's just sideways here. Looks like it's building up for a big move.
I guess it's waiting for the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes to be released at 2 AM tomorrow.
Honestly, I don't dare hold these long positions now; no one knows if the next move will be up or down.
Survival is more important than anything.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
$ETH ETH today's personal thoughts and practical suggestions
Conclusion first: Light position bottom-fishing long or stay out of the market. Set stop loss below 2566.
At 10:10 this morning, there was a spike where ETH directly broke below the previously established 8-day small range (2626--2740), triggering a 4-hour level 5-wave decline.
The nearest support is currently around 2566, with today's spike price at 2587, which has not yet retested 2566. The current situation suggests there is still a need for continued consolidation. In the short term, it is difficult to quickly return above 2740.
Considering next week's CPI situation, after a week of consolidation to stabilize the structure, there is still a possibility of a sharp CPI-driven rally.