Orbit Post Sitemap
Just opened and saw the market dropping. ASTER quickly placed a long position, originally set stop loss at 0.69, changed it within a minute, and stopped out in less than two minutes, luckily losing less. The dip was too harsh, two quick drops in a row, followed the waterfall, DEX tokens collectively pulled back fiercely one after another. What happened to cause the drop? Only saw some fragmented news about sector retreat, didn’t look closely, probably funds have fled. The market is tough and doesn’t care about anyone, only you suffer. #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #Robinhood链上交易激增，币股Meme成主角 $ASTER #OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官 $FIL halving is coming, but don’t expect an instant pump. Major catalysts are often priced in before the event.
Halving reduces new supply, but it doesn’t create demand. The chart is showing rising support levels, suggesting a gradual bullish structure. Expect volatility and patience rather than chasing the headline.
#NvidiaRecordHigh #AnthropicEyesNovIPO 📰 【Yi Lihua: Still Bearish but Not Shorting, Bitcoin May Test $71,000 Support if It Breaks Below $82,000】
BlockBeats reports that on October 4, Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that since going long at $86,000 and seeing a pullback, the market has repeatedly triggered false bullish signals. He still insists on resting, not trying to profit from speculation, nor seizing every opportunity. Missing out is always better than making mistakes. He maintains the previous view: expecting a pullback but not shorting. If Bitcoin falls below $82,000, it may test three support levels at $79,000, $75,000, and $71,000. Another possibility is that Bitcoin ends the pullback with sideways consolidation. In any case, Liquid Capital will not take action, neither going long nor short.
This repeated false bullish market is very frustrating. Being bearish but not shorting is basically a struggle with one’s own impatience. I prefer to move less, save some bullets for when sentiment hits rock bottom, and meanwhile catch up on interactions for tokens not yet issued. Are you currently holding no positions waiting, or just holding spot and doing nothing? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $SUI Publicly Challenge the Ledger · Daily Discipline Check-in
SUPER｜$2.49 Key Resistance 2.7 Key Support 2.3
After the celebration, the tide recedes. 2.7 is the critical point for bulls to regain control, 2.3 is the lifeline. The dual narratives of gaming and AI remain, but the volume hasn't kept up, so these are all corrections. Trading competition is not about who earns fast, but who lasts longer. Hold your position; the chips are still on the table and the opportunity will come eventually. No rushing, no panic. $SUPER #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $HYPE To be honest, I myself thought it was risky for this trade to last this long; luck played a big part. The market waits for the right moment, and profits come from holding on.
Last night at dawn, I looked at HYPE; the support below didn't break, and the market was grinding, making people sleepy. I only gave one tip: as long as the pullback doesn't break support, there's still a chance.
Holding from 85.978 up to 90.140, +241.8% gave the answer. This gain feels good; the wait was worth it.
I took profit on 70% first, keeping the remaining 30% at cost price as protection. If it continues to rise, let the profits run; if it falls back, don't let the gains turn sour. Profits don't inflate, and pullbacks aren't despairing.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and move when the next signal appears.
$DOGE $SOL What is the actual probability of success for the $FIL Filecoin project?
1. Why it is not a pseudo-demand
The pain points of centralized cloud storage that decentralized storage aims to solve do exist: single points of failure, platform data deletion/compliance takedown, cross-cloud lock-in, unverifiable audits. Filecoin uses Proof of Replication + Proof of Spacetime to achieve "verifiable storage," combined with IPFS content addressing, FVM programmable storage, Onchain Cloud/F3 finality, etc., making the technical roadmap self-consistent.
There is already real payload, not just miners stacking capacity:
- Official network capacity is about 1.95 EiB, with many active customers over 1 TiB, and thousands of FVM contracts;
- According to Messari: utilization rose from single digits in early years to about 36% by 2025, with 925 customer datasets exceeding 1 PB;
- Institutional archive customers include Internet Archive, Smithsonian, MIT Open Learning, Flickr Foundation, some government/research/genomics/AI datasets;
- Closed-loop scenarios: NFT/on-chain metadata, IPFS persistence, long-term archiving of scientific and cultural data, verifiable AI training set notarization, compliance audit traceability.
These scenarios are willing to pay a premium for "verifiable + censorship-resistant + long-term immutability," so the demand is real.
2. But the demand is "niche," not "general-purpose"
Compared to centralized cloud, Filecoin has hard shortcomings:
- Weak for hot data/low-latency retrieval: random reads, API ecosystem, SLA, ticketing, compliance certification are inferior to AWS S3 / GCS / Azure; many Web3 hot reads actually rely on Pinata, web3.storage, CDN caching as fallback;
- High integration complexity: storage deals, staking, sealing, FIL + DataCap, retrieval market all require understanding; enterprise IT adoption threshold is higher than Storj;
- Subsidy-distorted historical data: early large capacity was CC/garbage data + block rewards; Fil+ 10x rewards bring "verification transactions" but do not equal fully paid customers; real paid proportion has long been questioned;
- Costs not necessarily low: cold archive pure storage price may be low, but considering retrieval, operations, compliance, migration, SLA degradation, total enterprise cost of ownership may not be better than S3 Glacier/Backblaze B2.
Therefore, it is more suitable as a "verifiable archival layer in hybrid cloud," not a full replacement for hyperscalers.
3. Competitive positioning
- AWS/Google/Azure: hot data, full stack, compliance, SLA all superior; archival layers like Glacier, Coldline exist with reasonable prices.
- Arweave: one-time payment for permanent storage, better for NFT metadata, web archiving, immutable frontends.
- Storj: S3 compatible, default encryption, enterprise access most like traditional cloud, friendlier for hot/warm storage.
- Sia: low price, tenant-host peer-to-peer, strong privacy/self-hosting but small ecosystem.
- Filecoin's advantage lies in "largest decentralized storage market + cryptographic verifiability + Fil+/FVM/AI data" narrative; disadvantages in usability, retrieval, and real unit price after subsidy decline.
4. How to view the "30% final success probability"
Define success first:
1. High probability (70%–85%) as a long-term verifiable storage network (cold archive/Web3/institutional backup). Mainnet has run for years, institutional clients exist, toolchains improving, IPFS ecosystem depends on incentive layer.
2. Lower probability (20%–35% in 3–5 years, 30%–45% in 10 years) as an important general-purpose enterprise cloud storage tier (including warm data, some hot data, SLA). Premised on delivering Onchain Cloud, Akave S3 compatibility, PDP/retrieval, stablecoin payments, enterprise billing.
3. Very low probability (under 10%–15% in 10 years) as a general facility replacing AWS storage mainstay. Centralized cloud has deep moats in tools, compliance, latency, ecosystem.
4. As an investment target/FIL long-term appreciation is weakly correlated with "project technical success." Variables include real paid storage revenue, circulating supply (some long-term release ends in 2026 but total supply remains large), block rewards, miner staking, overall crypto liquidity. Defining "significantly outperform mainstream and exit subsidies in next 5 years," 30% is optimistic; defining "not zero with cyclical opportunities," much greater than 30%.
5. Conclusion summary
- Asked "Is it a scam/pseudo-demand?" → No, technology and niche demand are valid, but the 2020–2022 miner/coin price narrative greatly exaggerated it.
- Asked "Can it become the next cloud giant?" → Very difficult, 30% is already high.
- Asked "Will it still exist and be usable long-term?" → Yes, it is currently a leader in cold archive/verifiable storage.
- Asked "Is buying FIL now a bet on success?" → Don't equate project success with coin price success; look at paid deal proportion, non-subsidy revenue, retrieval latency, enterprise renewal rate, then see if demand absorbs supply after release."LAB rebounds, CORE still asleep"
This time LAB is back with fierce momentum, once again pressing the bears down hard. What about CORE? It has tested the 60-day moving average 11 times, each time reaching high but then falling back, like a hopeless case. BICO watches from the side, even Xiao Ku is almost embarrassed to watch.
Both are altcoins, so why such a big difference? LAB has buyers pulling it up, CORE has no one to catch it. One relies on strong capital support, the other just stubbornly holds on with words.
The macro environment isn't helping either: nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, BTC and ETH ETFs are both seeing outflows, the US-Iran situation remains tense, and the G7 is releasing up to 100 million barrels of reserves. The big coin is stumbling along, small coins trying to strengthen independently is difficult.
So don't fall in love with weak coins. LAB is strong, you can follow it, but don't chase the highs; CORE is weak, don't bottom-fish, wait until it truly stands firm above the 60-day moving average. Small coins are volatile, keep positions light, use stop-losses, survival is key for the next opportunity.
This is just a personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $ETH 2648 looks like a strong bottom? Don't rush to catch it.
The resistance at 2779 above is pressing down hard, with over 75% of the bulls crowded together, and OI is quietly slipping away. This isn't strength; it's just that the vehicle is too heavy and the crowd too dense, someone could jump off at any time.
In this structure, a surge higher is a bull trap. When it rebounds near resistance, I'm bearish. Those who catch the falling knife won't escape.
If it breaks below 2648, look to 2600 or even 2550; only a volume-backed close above 2779 will invalidate the bearish logic.
Right now, it's not about courage but patience. Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal; a waterfall drop is coming, don't say you weren't warned.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Large-cap coins are being redeemed, HYPE is being bought, and this week's ETF capital flow reveals the institutional favoritism.
The data is clear: as of that week, Bitcoin ETF inflows shrank to $82.9 million, Ethereum ETF net outflows reached $118 million, and only the US HYPE spot ETF saw an inflow of $3.4 million.
$3.4 million isn't a huge amount, but the direction is valuable. While the big brothers are being sold, there is still capital specifically flowing into HYPE, indicating that in the eyes of some institutions, HYPE is not just a follower of large caps but a token that can be valued independently based on its own revenue logic.
Where does the confidence come from? For every 100 units of fees collected by the platform, more than 97 units are used to repurchase and burn HYPE, turning protocol revenue directly into buying pressure. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Hougan added this week: The Senate's failure to pass the CLARITY Act on September 15th is actually good news for $HYPE, as it clears a large regulatory cloud hanging over the buyback.
Money, mechanism, and policy—all three lines are coming together. Now it’s a matter of when this inflow will jump from the million level to the ten million level. $STRK surged 21%, but OI has already dropped nearly 65% from its intraday peak. This looks more like high-volatility deleveraging than a clean breakout.
Watch $0.0564 resistance and $0.0492 support. Reclaiming the high with stable OI would be healthier; losing $0.0492 could trigger another pullback.
#MicronAIMemoryOutlook #OpenAI$1.4TFunding The most crucial point:
BTC and SOL are now recovering simultaneously
Yesterday:
BTC 84K + SOL 119
Now:
BTC 85.1K + SOL 120
This is better than BTC rising alone.
Because if BTC rises and SOL continues to fall, I would think funds are still very defensive.
Now both are recovering together, indicating:
Risk appetite is recovering.
But one last step remains:
BTC: firmly hold above 86K again
SOL: break through 121–122
If both happen simultaneously, I would define the market as:
B phase → B phase strengthening → advancing again toward the main upward wave
Rather than a simple rebound. $SOL $BTC #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Woke up to the sky falling. ONE dropped nearly 12% during the day, from 0.00275 down to 0.00242. Thought it was about time to open a short position, but ended up closing it out impulsively; today it kept falling, and slapping my thigh won’t help. At this level, I wanted to bottom-fish but held back seeing how the overall market looks terrible. Old chains collapse suddenly with no sense of security. This market either scares the timid or supports the brave; Harmony’s liquidity drain is faster than anyone else’s this round. Good morning, genius traders $ONE #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $ETHFI is shifting beyond the old LRT narrative, with EtherFi increasingly focused on real cash flow.
Weekly revenue is around $700K–$900K, with EtherFi Cash driving nearly 60%. If this trend continues, the cash-flow + token buyback model could become the next catalyst.
#VanEckBitcoinOutlook #AnthropicEyesNovIPO Many friends have asked why the Base chain has been performing so well recently, so here’s a simple explanation. First, a basic fact: Aerodrome is the leading DEX on Base, having risen nine percent in the past 24 hours, with trading volume simultaneously expanding to 7 million USD. What’s the core reason? It’s that Base’s real users and capital are accumulating, not just empty pump-and-dump. With underlying traffic comes DEX transaction fees; with fees comes AERO buyback and burn; with burn comes price support. Each link depends on the previous one, progressing gradually. $AERO #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Is the $FIL filcoin project a pseudo-demand? Core conclusions
1. It is not purely a pseudo-demand, but there is a long-term structural problem where "incentive-driven motivation far exceeds real commercial demand." The value proposition is valid, but commercialization is seriously lagging.
2. Using a 5-year cycle and "achieving commercial self-sustainability without token subsidies" as the success criteria, the final success rate is about 25%~35%, with 30% being a relatively fair neutral judgment.
I. Why it is not a "pseudo-demand": Real value and actual implementation exist
The core definition of "pseudo-demand" is a false demand with no real usage value, maintained only by token speculation. Filecoin does not fit this definition:
1. There are clear real-world application scenarios
Public data archiving, AI training dataset notarization, and censorship-resistant storage are verified essential demand scenarios. Institutions like the Smithsonian Institution, MIT, Internet Archive, and Cornell University have stored PB-level data on-chain for long-term cultural and scientific data preservation. This demand is irreplaceable.
2. Paid demand is growing from zero
From January to August 2026, on-chain real paid storage annualized revenue grew from $663 to $59,300, an 88-fold increase year-over-year; active paying parties increased from 73 to 119; after the launch of Fil One (S3-compatible object storage) priced at $4.99/TB/month, it has been integrated into AWS Marketplace and secured $870 million in enterprise-level intent orders.
3. The technical value logic holds
Verifiable storage based on zero-knowledge proofs, distributed architecture providing resistance to single points of failure and censorship, offers differentiated advantages in cold data archiving and data ownership scenarios, not a mere fantasy.
II. Root causes of the "pseudo-demand" controversy: Incentive dependency and low demand quality
The market's skepticism about "pseudo-demand" mainly stems from the network's value being long supported by token rewards rather than real commercial payments:
1. Early capacity was mostly "invalid data"
In the first 3 years before launch, miners filled large amounts of meaningless junk data to maximize block rewards and boost computing power; real effective data accounted for less than 10%. Even by 2026, 36% utilization still includes a large amount of Fil+ (official subsidy) driven non-market demand, with pure spontaneous payment still very low.
2. Paid scale does not match network size
The entire network storage capacity is nearly 2 EiB (the world's largest decentralized storage network), with a market value of about $700 million, but annual real paid storage revenue is only about $60,000, completely insufficient to cover miner costs. Over 99% of miner income still comes from block rewards, essentially a "subsidy-driven supply surplus."
3. Severely insufficient enterprise commercial capability
Compared to mainstream cloud providers like AWS and Alibaba Cloud, Filecoin has huge gaps in retrieval latency, SLA service guarantees, permission management, compliance auditing, and technical support—core enterprise demands. Currently, it can only handle the lowest-value cold archiving business and cannot enter the high-value hot storage market.
III. Basis for the 30% success rate: Hedging between positives and risks
Using "within 5 years, break away from token subsidies, maintain network operation through real commercial revenue, and become a leading player in decentralized storage" as the success standard, the 25%~35% probability range comes from the following hedges:
Core positives raising success rate
1. Economic model reform direction is correct: Solstice (FIP-0118), landing in 2027, cancels Fil+ subsidies and ties block rewards to real paid transaction volume, forcing the network to shift from "mining and selling" to "providing services and earning revenue," a critical and correct pivot.
2. AI brings incremental demand window: The explosive demand for traceable and verifiable storage of large model training datasets naturally fits Filecoin's technical characteristics, representing the largest current growth curve.
3. Productization accelerates filling gaps: Products like Filecoin Onchain Cloud and Fil One are improving API, S3 compatibility, and enterprise access capabilities, moving from a "blockchain protocol" toward a "commercial cloud service."
4. Supply-side clearing reduces selling pressure: In October 2026, the founding team's six-year lockup expires, combined with continuous block reward decay, greatly narrowing FIL supply growth and giving demand-side growth a time window.
Core risks lowering success rate
1. Demand ramp-up is extremely slow: After 6 years online, paid revenue only reaches tens of thousands of dollars annually. To support miner revenue scale, exponential growth is needed, which is very difficult; traditional cloud providers have high ecosystem barriers, making it hard to capture mature markets.
2. Scenario ceiling is low: Currently, it can only enter the cold archiving niche market; hot storage, CDN, and other high-value scenarios have almost no competitiveness, limiting total addressable market space.
3. Miner ecosystem death spiral risk: If after Solstice's launch real paid demand does not rise and block rewards continue to decline, many miners will exit, network capacity will shrink, further reducing attractiveness to enterprise clients, forming a negative cycle.
4. Competition and governance burdens: Competitors like Arweave differentiate in permanent storage; traditional cloud providers are also deploying distributed storage; early project governance disputes and conflicts between miners and officials will drag commercialization progress.The operational approach remains unchanged: mainstream top assets on one side, pure meme on the other, the barbell strategy is the most stable. Spot: Hold HYPE, Hyperliquid's perpetual DEX TVL is still hitting new highs, and fee income is visibly growing; Futures: Long HYPE, target is the $95 resistance level, stop loss set below $85. Previously tried a small SOL-related altcoin trade, data was poor so didn't add more, but the result was unexpected—didn't expect it to be so strong, making a small profit but no loss is a win. The strategy is laid out, everyone judge for yourselves. $HYPE #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 To start with the conclusion: on days like today, an unrealized loss in your account usually doesn't mean the direction was wrong, but that the position selection was incorrect.
Looking across the entire market breadth: among USDT perpetual contracts, 154 are up, 39 are down, median +1.23%, $BTC +0.80%, $ETH +0.68%, $SOL +1.71%. If you're still losing money in this kind of market, there's basically only one explanation—you’re holding coins that underperformed the overall market.
A rule I set for myself: when the breadth is this green, first check your position logic, then look at price movements. Is the reason you bought it still valid? If yes, hold on; if not, take advantage of this high liquidity day to exit, don’t wait until it turns fully green before you run.
The most costly mistake is "The market goes up but I don’t = I’m wrong." Panic selling leads to cutting losses and chasing the hottest coins among the 154 gainers. The result? The ones you sold didn’t drop, and the ones you chased turned red the next day—getting hit from both sides.
Look at today’s losers: $AT -8.09%, $UP -7.41%, but 24h volume is only $7M and $2M. Small coins drifting down have no support; a pullback is just a pullback. What’s really worth catching is a pullback with heavy volume in big trades. This is the simplest difference in money management.
Is your position green or red today? $BTCThose who missed out haven't lost a penny on paper, but their minds are filled with days of losing money.
It's most obvious in the few days after the market moves out; when busy during the day, they can forget, but once idle, it creeps back. At night, when they open the app, it has risen again, and the more they watch, the more they feel they've lost. This loss is fake, but the pain is real. When people are in pain, they want to find a way to make up for it. Chasing orders is that act of making up, treating the profits they didn't earn as lost profits, as if chasing in can recover them. Those trapped move recklessly, at least knowing they're gambling; those who missed out chase orders, truly believing they're correcting mistakes.
It rises, and the more you watch, the more you lose; it pulls back, and you're afraid the opportunity is gone—both sides urge you to act. $SOL's slow climb nurtures this feeling the most; it neither crashes nor moves fast, shifting a little each day, raising that tension higher and higher. The discomfort itself doesn't lose money; chasing that one order is what loses money, trying to fill a hole that doesn't exist.
This fake loss must be settled first. Move the unrealized profits out of the loss column and back to where they originally belonged—where they never really were. After moving them, look at the market again; the urge to chase will drop by more than half, and the remaining urge that stands is a truly intended order.
The heavy discomfort of missing out means this round hasn't reached the stage where everyone has a share yet. I don't look bearish on SOL here. First, settle the accounts, and with the remaining urge, treat it as a new order to handle.The weekend was generally weak, with BTC 84.8K still the dividing line, and the whole market shrinking volume waiting for next week. AXS is around $1.37, and GameFi veterans were actually lifted by funds today, rising more than 10%, which is a rare bright spot over the weekend; $ONE was rejected above 0.0027 and then lost ground, falling nearly 12% for the day, becoming the worst performer. Hold $1.3, otherwise AXS will return to $1.2; if the volume continues to shrink over the weekend, $1.2 will become a magnet, and the rebound will depend more on the overall market mood. Wait for the reaction when the market opens next week. $AXS #Liquid发布紧急修复，网络进入分阶段恢复 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $FIL Filecoin is currently at a critical stage of transitioning from "pseudo-demand controversy" to "real demand validation." Its probability of success is far from 30%, but it is not without hope. The core contradiction lies in the fact that it has a vast decentralized storage infrastructure but has long lacked matching real paid demand.
📉 Why is it questioned as "pseudo-demand"?
The "pseudo-demand" controversy around Filecoin mainly stems from a serious disconnect between its economic model and real use cases.
· Miner-driven rather than customer-driven: Early network growth was driven by token incentives, with miners filling the network with junk data to earn block rewards without bearing data retrieval responsibilities. Community discussions have clearly pointed out that many transactions involve storing "fake or low-utility data" just to obtain rewards.
· Structural supply-demand imbalance: Tokens continue to be produced, but demand has not kept pace, leading to huge selling pressure. FIL price dropped from a high of $238 to around $1.5, with market capitalization sharply shrinking, reflecting loss of market confidence.
· Utilization rate rose but base remains low: Although network utilization rose to 36% in Q3 2025, total network storage capacity declined by 10% in the same period, and active storage slightly decreased by 1%. This indicates some storage providers are exiting, and real demand has not significantly filled the gap.
📈 Signs of "real demand" in transformation
Filecoin is striving to shed the label of a "mining financial system" and transition to a programmable on-chain cloud service.
· Strategic focus clearly shifts to demand: The official 2026 strategy core is to increase paid on-chain storage transactions, focusing on verticals like AI agents, DePIN, and enterprise infrastructure.
· Real datasets are growing: As of Q3 2025, the number of real datasets online increased by 3% quarter-over-quarter to 2,491, with 925 datasets exceeding 1,000 TiB, showing large-scale adoption by enterprises and research institutions.
· New products target real scenarios: Filecoin Onchain Cloud (FOC), launching in 2026, offers programmable, verifiable storage and payment layers aimed at serving real needs such as persistent memory for AI agents. At mainnet launch, 49 TiB of data was already stored.
📊 Why is the success probability hard to reach 30%?
Here, "success" is defined as FIL token price returning to historical highs or the protocol becoming a mainstream commercial storage standard, which is extremely unlikely. Major obstacles include:
· Continuous token selling pressure: Miner reward issuance will continue until 2036, with new tokens entering circulation over the next decade, exerting long-term downward pressure on price.
· Fierce market competition: Filecoin faces competition not only from centralized giants like Amazon S3 but also from differentiated decentralized rivals such as Arweave (permanent storage) and Storj (erasure coding).
· Transformation execution risk: Shifting from a "miner economy" to a "customer economy" involves cutting storage provider rewards and other core interest adjustments, causing huge controversy within the community. The success of this transformation is highly uncertain.
· Extremely low network fees: In Q3 2025, total network fees were only about $793,000, with 99.5% driven by penalties rather than real service revenue. This indicates very weak commercial monetization capability currently.
Overall, Filecoin has a real technological vision and some genuine use cases, but it has yet to prove it can convert these into sustainable, scalable commercial success. A 30% success probability may still be optimistic — it is more likely to become infrastructure serving specific niche markets (such as AI data requiring verifiable storage) rather than replicating past market glory.#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
The most important information currently is that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will release the minutes of their September meetings.
The market has already started pricing in no rate hikes in October due to weaker non-farm payrolls, and this gap itself will trigger volatility. The dollar may strengthen first and then weaken, causing risk assets to fluctuate sharply.
Of course, if the minutes show concerns about the labor market or begin discussing when to stop tightening, that would be a solid positive for BTC.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $UNI
Yesterday's leading indicator turned to a pullback; how to verify the continuity of rotation?
Today's observed 24-hour range is 8.947—9.326, with a window change of about -0.72% and a trading volume of approximately 12.65 million USDT.
Yesterday's similar snapshot was positive, but today it turned negative, indicating that relative strength will change. Yesterday's leading indicator cannot be directly copied as today's judgment; the current buying pressure still needs to be tested.
If the price subsequently breaks above 9.326, holds on a pullback, and trading volume supports it, I will raise my judgment on continuation; if it falls below 8.947 and the rebound cannot recover, I will lower my judgment. The above boundaries come from this observation window and need to be rechecked after market changes.伊朗最新回应公布——拒绝在七项条件满足前全面重开霍尔木兹，中期选举前的豪赌？ #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 伊朗议长公开表示，拒绝美国通过中间人提出的开放海峡条件，想要开放海峡需要先满足此前《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》的七项条件 我认为这基本上算是打破了近期美伊可能回归谈判桌的乐观可能了，接下来就要看美国方面的反应 需要注意，本次是由伊朗议长表态，伊朗议长相对是伊朗的谈判温和派，且被最高领袖信赖，这个表态基本上断绝了伊朗出现更软化态度的可能性 硬碰硬，我认为伊朗是在豪赌，周五美国副总统万斯在戴维营秘密开会商讨对伊朗对胡赛武装的安全问题，已经被视为美军军事行动前信号，而此时的伊朗还选择强硬，就是在豪赌特朗普中期选举前不对伊朗进行大规模袭击 要知道伊朗拒绝了美国的提议并不代表退出谈判以及关闭对话窗口，显然伊朗是想要在中期选举后的军事袭击前尽可能的与美国在条件上进行博弈，赌的就是特朗普目前在应对中期选举不能对伊朗动武，同时也在赌特朗普中期选举失败 很显然伊朗又选择了一条相对艰难的豪赌之路，目前来看我并不认为美国可能会满足伊朗的所有条件换取海峡开通，那么双方在11月中期选举前结BEAMX is a small-cap coin, I went long directly, and the current price is 0.00293 with nearly a 40% gain in one day. The market cap is small and there is no liquidity, so a little capital can push it up. The gaming sector is currently seeing some capital testing the waters. But a surge is always accompanied by a crash, so prepare to set up short positions at the high point. No rush to short yet; wait until it can no longer push higher. The waterfall drop comes faster than the rise, so be careful, everyone. Take profits first before thinking about reversing positions; don’t get carried away. Once liquidity in small-cap coins withdraws, you can’t even run away. Keep it up, everyone! $BEAMX #CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 [Old Leek Observation] $NXPC
Entry: $0.225–$0.238
Take Profit: $0.250 / $0.260 / $0.277 / $0.295 / $0.320
Stop Loss: $0.214
GameFi has already seen many coins move in this round, but $NXPC hasn't truly caught up yet. Currently around $0.237, it has basically been trading sideways recently. The MapleStory Universe behind it is not just a concept: the H1 protocol revenue reached 30.98 million NXPC, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.4% in Q2, and it continuously reduces supply through protocol revenue buyback/burn mechanisms.
There is also an expected new round of NXPC burn in October.
If the second wave of GameFi continues, coins like NXPC that have risen before and recently stabilized sideways are actually worth watching to see if funds start to catch up.Recently, there's an interesting phenomenon: the Polkadot ecosystem has been cold for almost two years, but today Moonbeam surged over 30% in one move, currently priced at 0.0122. Everyone thought the old parachains had no stories left to tell, but in reality, the underlying elements like cross-chain interoperability and parachain slots have been quietly iterating, and developers have never truly left. Funds just temporarily forgot about it, but once the sector rotates and ignites, its resilience is stronger than those overhyped new concepts. Trust your own judgment and think it through yourself; don't get carried away by emotions. This round, GLMR is the one to really watch. $GLMR #美日确认联合购汇 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 It's not about "blindly bottom-fishing" now, but rather "building positions in tiers + keeping ammo for the last dip."
BTC current price is about 84,700, consolidating with low volume between the 82,000 support and 86,000–88,000 resistance. Funding rates are near zero, not crowded longs, but the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.3% and real interest rate at 2.88% are pressuring non-yielding assets. The macro environment hasn't signaled comprehensive easing.
BTC/ETH: Already in the value zone, suitable for a base position of 30–40%+ with tiered additions at 82,000 / 78,000 / 74,000; avoid going all in at once. A typical true bottom scenario is "breaking key levels again to clear liquidations → then recovering." Below, 76,000 and 66,000 serve as liquidation/structure references.
Mainstream high beta like SOL: bottoms later than BTC, wait for BTC to hold above 88,000 before considering; it rebounds fast but also pulls back sharply.
Altcoins/MEME/low market cap: liquidity is dried up + trust collapsed, don't buy just because "there used to be an alt season in previous cycles." Most only have rebounds without reversals; small positions for speculation only.
Time window: multiple sources (Fidelity, Brandt, Jiang Zhuoer, 4chan consensus posts) point to around October 2026 as the cycle bottom area, but not a precise day bottom—more like a few weeks of consolidation around October.🙀 The market opens tomorrow meow
$NEAR's rebound has some strength, around 4.63 last night, returning to about 4.80 at midday, recovering approximately 3.6% compared to those two time points. At least we can't keep viewing it as weak as last night; the price has already taken a step up. But it has more than doubled in the past month, so continued rise requires buying support. What’s more worth watching next is the pullback range. If the recently recovered part quickly falls back, it means the rebound is not solid; if the pullback is limited and it can rise again surpassing this high point, then the outlook can be more optimistic.
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回
$ARB I’m more concerned about how ecosystem development translates to the token. The official position is that ARB is a governance token, and holders can participate in protocol governance. So when we see more projects added to the ecosystem and more on-chain transactions, we need to ask: through what mechanism do these changes increase token demand? If only network users increase without corresponding buying demand, business growth cannot be directly converted into price upside. The projects are worth attention, but whether the token is worth buying requires careful consideration of this intermediate step.
$XRP Around 1.49 today, basically the same as last night, no obvious short-term progress for now. My attitude is to observe first, not rush to find reasons for a catch-up rally. If the market continues to warm up later, whether it can actively move up is more important than just holding steady. If the rebound is always a step slow, we have to accept that it is temporarily not the standout performer.Don't be afraid, brothers, absolutely don't be afraid, short on any pullback rally.
Just short it, that's it. Any pullback rally now is a bull trap, think about it yourselves.
$ZEC dropped from 1412 to 1271, rebounded to 1325 but couldn't go higher.
Every rally is firmly suppressed by the moving averages, each high is lower than the last, and volume is shrinking day by day.
Is this a reversal?
This is the dog whales digging a pit.
Would a real uptrend fail to reach previous highs?
Would it be precisely knocked down at the same spot every time?
I entered a short at 1405.55, now floating profit is 57.21%, the numbers in my account are the best proof.
I'm not in a hurry to exit because until the trend reverses, every rebound is an opportunity to add to the position.
In terms of operation, add more shorts on rebounds in the 1350-1380 range, set stop loss above 1450, target first at 1200, if broken, keep holding.
At this position, anyone chasing longs is just a chump.
$BTC
$SOL
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 This Sunday at 5:30, I casually checked tokenized US stocks — currently the strongest is $xMSTR (MicroStrategy) spot around 163.6, up about 1.7 points compared to the 24-hour open at 160.9, with a daily high of 164.6 and a daily low of 160.8, trading volume about 820,000 U.
BTC is around 85160, ETH near 2700. Corresponding MSTR perpetual contract nominal position is about 24 million dollars, with the rate close to zero. US stock market is closed on the weekend, token market fluctuates on its own. Short term, watch if anyone takes over above the daily high of 164.6; if it falls back to around 160.8, don't chase aggressively.
$BTC $ETH $xMSTR #XMSTR #MSTR #MicroStrategy #USStocks #TokenizedUSStocks
#TheFedAndECBToReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes #BTCSpotETFFlowsBackIn,ETHFundsContinueOutflow #Bessent:USBondYieldsRiseInLineWithGlobalTrend
#RiskWarning
The above does not constitute investment advice, control your position size, the market has risks. Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise but Fail to Suppress Long-Term Yields: Crypto Market Faces a Critical Week Amid Macro Divergence
The US September nonfarm payrolls data fell significantly short of expectations, quickly cooling Fed rate hike expectations for October. However, the 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index rose against the trend, showing a typical market divergence. Short-term interest rate pricing eased, while long-term yields remained high due to fiscal supply and energy inflation constraints. This contradictory macro environment is becoming the new pricing backdrop for crypto assets. Next week’s Fed meeting minutes, long-term Treasury auctions, G7 oil reserve releases, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be key variables determining the short-term direction of risk assets. The crypto market no longer focuses solely on single employment data; changes in long-term US Treasury yields will become the most important market indicator.
The September nonfarm payrolls surprise brought marginal improvement in expectations, but the Treasury market’s feedback clearly signals that mere employment weakness is insufficient to immediately reverse the high long-term yield environment. The coming week will be a concentrated window for macro data validation, with the Fed minutes, Treasury repo auctions, and energy prices jointly defining the tone for global risk assets in the near term.
The crypto market has entered a new pricing phase: no longer simply following short-term policy rate expectations, the weight of long-term variables such as US fiscal debt supply and energy inflation risk is rising. For traders, rather than chasing daily moves, it is more important to confirm whether long-term yields have truly reached a turning point—this is the fundamental core that will determine how far this rebound can go. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Intel PC processors to rise about 10% again, closed at 119.33 on Friday but dropped about 0.56%, I will observe first and not chase.
Seen: Supply chain news (DIGITIMES source), planned to rise about 10% again starting October 5, the third time in less than a year.
CEO Chen Liwu said memory prices have risen about 5 to 7 times, now even half of the processor orders cannot be filled.
Simply put: it's not that chips can't sell, but memory has pushed up the total machine cost, so Intel raises prices first to maintain gross margin.
On Friday opened about 124.01, high touched 126, low about 118.96, closed 119.33, volume about 95.4 million; previous close 120, surged high but was hammered back.
There were reports that intraday it surged very high, but it didn't hold at the close, indicating the price hike expectation has already been traded ahead.
I think: the price hike story is partially priced in, don't take the intraday high of 126 as Monday's trend over the weekend.
Channel news ≠ official price list, treat it as observation before it takes effect on October 5.
What I will do: observe and not chase.
Watch for a firm hold above about 126, consider the price hike trade failed if it falls below about 118.96.
Do you trust the price hike can support gross margin, or fear PC will be crushed by memory + CPU price increases together?
$INTC $MU $AMD
#FederalReserve and #ECB to release September meeting minutes #BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue outflowsSome friends don't understand why I don't pay as much attention to the non-farm payrolls anymore. I just think that in the AI era, GDP and employment no longer have to be tied together. If a company uses AI to enable 100 people to do the work that used to require 300 people, then while the company's revenue, profits, and capital expenditures grow, employment may not necessarily increase in sync. In fact, this is the current state in the US: employment keeps falling while AI capital keeps rising. Essentially, companies are buying future productivity, so I choose to focus more on productivity as the main theme beyond just watching the non-farm payrolls.Evening Review
After a day’s trading, the difference between two positions is the most straightforward trading lesson.
$HYPE remains the smart money’s stronghold:
The whale long position profit ratio surged to 77.47%, the nominal long-short ratio continues to rise, and the large holders’ profitable positions are increasingly stacked, with the trend strength clearly visible to the naked eye.
My 20x long position steadily moves upward, with unrealized profit reaching +2526U. Truly comfortable profits are never gambled on; they come from holding in the direction of the main capital flow.
Looking at $BICO, it’s another typical “crowd trap”:
The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 641.35%, with the market seemingly full of longs, but the long position profit ratio is only 39.47%, and even shorts mostly suffer losses; both sides are struggling. Without concentrated main capital force, no matter how many retail investors enter, it’s just a tug of war that can’t support the market.
My 8x full-position long is still deeply underwater at -1319U, with no substantial improvement in unrealized loss and no signs of active buying.
The deepest insight today:
Trends don’t rely on votes, but on real money.
Many look at how many people are long but forget to see if those longs are actually making money; more people ≠ more strength. Only smart money’s sustained profits give the market sustainability.
Trading approach:
- $HYPE: Hold the trend bottom line, don’t exit early, don’t blindly add to positions chasing highs, and hold the profits that should be taken;
- $BICO: No longer hold onto hope by adding positions to bet on a reversal, continue to observe capital signals, and be ready to cut losses and exit if no clear improvement.
The market always rewards following the trend and punishes wishful thinking.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Three lines, one signal: the market is waiting for confirmation
Macro: Rate cut expectations are heating up, but oil prices are causing disruption
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, cooling in employment is a fact. Logically, rate cut trades should follow suit, but the US-Iran situation remains unresolved, and the G7 may release up to 100 million barrels of reserves, making oil prices and inflation expectations harder to tame. High interest rates continue to suppress valuations, and funds are reluctant to shift aggressively.
Funds: ETFs switch from accumulation to tentative withdrawal
$BTC ETFs had net inflows of about $3.1 billion over the previous 9 trading days, but from September 30th over two days, net outflows totaled about $173 million; ETH had net outflows for three consecutive days, with about $55.4 million withdrawn on October 1st alone; SOL spot ETFs still had net inflows of about $188 million last week, but turned to net outflows of about $5.9 million on October 1st. The amounts are not large, but the trend has changed — willingness to chase highs is declining.
Technical: Key levels determine directional ownership
BTC is stuck between 85,000 and 86,000, with 86,000 as the short-term decisive point; if surpassed, it will be treated as consolidation, and 82,000 serves as a lower buffer. ETH is operating between 2,700 and 2,750, with 2,770 as the upper threshold; only after breaking through can 2,800 be observed. SOL is tugging around 120, with 118 as a strong support that must be held.
In summary: Macro signals are not greenlit, ETFs are starting to pull back, and the market is handing direction over to several key levels. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Has $BTC stopped falling? Market signals after the 85,000 battle
After the non-farm payrolls night surge and pullback, BTC did not continue to decline but consolidated with reduced volume above 84,000, closing with a small bullish candle on the daily chart. The price rebounded from around 83,884, touched 85,027.8 intraday, and held steady near 84,900 at the close. This action indicates that support at the 84,000 whole number level remains intact, the previous breakout platform has not been lost, and the current movement looks more like a shakeout and consolidation after a big rise rather than a trend reversal.
On the indicators, SKDJ still maintains a bullish structure after the golden cross, with K at 48.5 and D at 46.7, both lines flattening around the midpoint. The previous pullback appears more like an overbought correction, with no death cross or breakdown signals, so the mid-term upward framework remains intact.
Next, let's look at two directions:
On the upside, 85,500–86,000 is a short-term resistance zone; only a breakout with volume can reopen upward momentum; stronger resistance lies at 87,283, which is the non-farm high and the previous peak of this cycle.
On the downside, 84,000 is the core short-term support; a pullback without breaking this level means the recovery pattern continues; if broken, 82,556 is the low point of this correction and also the mid-term bull lifeline.
Overall, BTC shows short-term signs of stopping the decline but has not yet confirmed a new round of rally. It is more likely to consolidate first before choosing a direction. The mid-term structure is unbroken, and after consolidation, there is still momentum to challenge previous highs again. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 LOL! What happened to the diamond hands? Even big institutions couldn't hold on, chasing high at 110,000 and cutting losses at 78,000! 😂
Oh man, even big institutions can't hold! The publicly listed companies that once preached "crypto faith" are now running faster than rabbits!
Recently, three listed companies quietly liquidated all their BTC holdings, their balances dropping straight to zero.
The funniest has to be Satsuma Technology:
They charged in at a high average price of $115,000, even added more positions in between, but ultimately couldn't hold on and painfully cut losses on 668 BTC at 78,000! This textbook case of chasing highs and selling lows really played out the script of crypto retail investors perfectly. 😭
The other two, KULR and Sequans, also cut 723 and 314 BTC respectively, basically each fending for themselves in a crisis.
The fact proves: in the face of a crash, institutions are just ordinary people too, they can't hold, absolutely can't hold! When it comes to cutting losses, they're even faster than us retail traders! 🤣 Buying API quota with stablecoins still results in value settling back to Ethereum
The zkAPI vault can accept stablecoin quotas, which raises a question: since users are not paying with $ETH, why is it still related to Ethereum's value? The answer lies not in the currency name but in where the settlement occurs. Deposits, closures, and escape routes are executed by Ethereum contracts; asset ownership and double-spend prevention rely on mainnet security; transactions still require Gas, and services depend on Ethereum's state to confirm balances.
However, stablecoin usage cannot be directly converted into $ETH price appreciation. Factors such as fee levels, whether transactions move to L2, contract call frequency, staking security requirements, and whether users maintain on-chain balances long-term all affect value capture. Application growth can increase Ethereum's credibility as a settlement infrastructure, but market pricing is also influenced by liquidity, interest rates, and risk preferences.
A better approach is to separate "business adoption" from "asset demand." First, observe whether services truly have paying users, whether balances persist, and whether exits are smooth; then assess how these activities contribute incremental demand for block space, Gas payments, and security budgets. $ETH's long-term value requires real usage support and a clear transmission path; it cannot rely solely on interpreting any stablecoin news as an immediate positive.🚨 ETHEREUM NEARS A KEY BREAKOUT LEVEL
$ETH is gradually forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, with the neckline near $3,000.
Key scenarios:
- 📈 Break above $3,000 → confirms the bullish breakout.
- 🔥 Hold above the breakout zone → could trigger stronger upside momentum.
The $3,000 level remains the key resistance that could determine Ethereum’s next major move.
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge 我們來看一下狗狗幣的部分。 想法沒變，價位也一個都沒改。 假日量小，下午這篇就是補數據。 【操作建議】 方向：做空 進場：0.1 加碼：0.11 停損：0.12 下午 5 點多價格約 0.0932，比中午的 0.0926 回來一點，但跟 0.1 還有 7% 左右的距離。 週末的小反彈量很少，不用太在意，沒到 0.1 就不需要動作。 【技術面｜1H】 幣安永續 1 小時圖，17:16 左右。 這根 K 開 0.09311、高 0.09327、低 0.09300，現價 0.09323。 價格貼在紅色 EQH 字樣底下，大約 0.0934；0.09357 的綠色標價還是壓在上面。 上面第一層紅色從 0.0963 鋪到 0.0980，有 0.09773 標記，頂端標著「Strong High」；再高一層落在 0.1043 跟 0.1024 之間。 往下看，「Weak Low」差不多在 0.0900；接著是 0.0861～0.0884 的藍色區塊，最底下靠近 0.0812 也有一條。 OKX 這邊，下午 4 點來到 0.09349，是近 24 小時的高點，之後又退回 0.093 出頭。 【籌碼面$POL has been in the crypto space for over 6 years. Actually, many traders don't really understand cryptocurrencies, so the popularity of a coin largely determines its market value. Back then, Matipay was very well-known and ranked in the top 7. After the name change, many veteran players thought this coin had disappeared! I strongly suggest everyone vote together in the community to change the name back.BTC 50x long is showing +265K USDT (~110% ROI), but the 1% maintenance margin and 77,697 liquidation price mean a sharp drop could wipe it out instantly. Past realized P&L remains -18K USDT.
A small 7x SKHY long is slightly profitable as a light trial. High-leverage gains are only floating profits—risk management and survival matter more than chasing returns.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge $ETH leverage trading, what you really need to understand is not chasing every market hotspot, but thoroughly mastering the two core assets BTC and ETH.
If you find the volatility insufficient, adjust the leverage within your own risk tolerance instead of recklessly amplifying returns.
Large-cap assets have better liquidity and deeper markets, and compared to small-cap altcoins, the risks of extreme manipulation and slippage are usually lower.
For beginners wanting to practice technical analysis, gold $XAU is also a worthwhile asset for long-term study.
As for those small-cap altcoins, they might bring a quick fortune, but they can also go to zero just as fast.
The most important thing in trading is never to try to make money everywhere, but to earn money you understand within your own circle of competence.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 I was in a pretty bad mood today, but checking my account made me feel a bit better—at least the effort wasn't wasted. Yesterday afternoon, the market fluctuated repeatedly; $FLOCK kept falling just short every time it tried to surge, with clear resistance above and volume never catching up. I warned about the pressure at high levels; the rebound was a chance to short.
Entered short at 0.07391, current price 0.06370, +275.74% profit realized. Those on board must be waking up smiling.
Closed 80% of the position, keeping 20% at cost price as protection. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don't give the profits back.
Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair on pullbacks. Being out of the market isn't a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: don't chase now, wait for the next signal before moving.
$BNB $DOGE 我們來看一下Solana的部分。 一樣先說：看法沒變，點位全部維持。 假日流動性偏低，下午這篇把價格跟數據再更新一次。 【操作建議】 方向：做空 進場：120 附近 加碼：125 停損：140 下午 5 點多價格大約 120.9，人仍在 120 附近的空單區間內。 這邊只是說明價格目前的位置，計畫內容沒有任何增減。 加碼的 125、停損的 140 都還離得遠，週末量又薄，不需要因為盤中幾毛錢的跳動就改變做法。 【技術面｜1H】 幣安永續 1 小時圖，17:16 前後截的。 最新價 120.90，這根 K 開 120.93、高 121.00、低 120.76，又是一根窄窄的小 K。 最近幾根 K 的頭上有一顆紅色 P，大約在 121.7，價格還沒去碰。 上方 121.8～123.3 的紅區沒變，122.42 那顆記號也還在裡面；Weak High 那條線大約畫在 123.8。 下方的綠色標價從 119.08 換成 119.54，貼在一條約 119.0～119.9 的藍色窄帶上。 更底下是一整塊藍色，從 116.2 延伸到 118.3，下緣就是「Strong Low」。 OKX 的 1 小$AXS — Damn, the shakeout is getting brutal! 📉 AXS is taking a serious beating, and the price action suggests that larger players may be aggressively moving and unloading positions. 💡 But there’s an important level to watch. The chart shows strong support around 1.24, with the latest candle forming a noticeable lower wick after the sell-off. That suggests buyers are still defending this zone. My setup: 🎯 Entry: 1.2454 🛑 Stop-loss: 1.21 🎯 First target: 1.32 Don’t get greedy, and most importaMy current judgment is:
Phase B has not been broken, and it is healthier than at 84K yesterday.
But it cannot yet be said that it has re-entered the "accelerated main rise."
Currently it belongs to:
87K surge → 84K pullback → 85K recovery
This is a relatively standard high-level oscillation/pullback confirmation process after a breakout.
The three most important positions for BTC now:
85K
This is the current central axis.
Holding above 85K indicates that the selling pressure near 84K yesterday is being digested.
85.7–86K
This is the next confirmation level.
If BTC breaks through and holds here again, I will start to lean towards:
The 84K pullback has ended → challenge 87K again.
87.2–87.4K
This is the real breakout threshold at present.
If it surges here again and can effectively break through, then Phase B will be significantly strengthened.
I am now reordering the probabilities:
First: Continue to rise
Probability: currently the highest
Path:
85K
→ 85.7K
→ 86K
→ 87K
→ 87.4K breakout
Once 87.4K is truly broken, the market structure will change.
Next, I will watch:
88.5K → 90K → 92K
Even after 90K, market sentiment will change significantly.
Second: Continue sideways
This is actually very normal.
For example:
83.8–86.5K
Oscillate back and forth for a few days.
Even appearing as:
85.8 → 84.2 → 85.5 → 84.7 → 86
No need to be too nervous $BTC 我們來看一下以太幣的部分。 看法照舊，點位也還是同一組，這點不變。 週日下午，假日的量本來就少，這篇單純補資料。 【操作建議】 空單：2,780 附近布局 空單停損：當初沒有給，風控請大家自己拿捏 多單：2,650 附近輕倉 多單加碼：2,600 多單停損：跌破 2,400 下午 5 點多，價格大約 2,698。 距離 2,780 大概 80 點，距離 2,650 約 50 點，兩邊都還沒到。 週末成交清淡，盤中晃個一二十點不代表什麼，走到哪一個價位，就照那邊的計畫做。 【技術面｜1H】 幣安永續 1 小時圖，截於 17:16 左右。 最新價 2,698.22，當下這根 K 開 2,699.16、高 2,699.57、低 2,696.49，是一根很短的小黑 K。 前面兩根有往上探，影線大約碰到 2,707，之後又被賣回 2,700 底下。 價格現在壓在 2,691.47 那條綠線上方，旁邊多了一個 BOS 字樣。 綠線底下有兩層藍：上層約 2,671～2,685，下層 2,650～2,667，Strong Low 約 2,648。 2,740～2,788 的紅色區還在頭上，裡面那個 2📋 $BTC Weekly Review: Range approximately 82,900 to 87,200, ended the weekend at 84,900, almost flat for the week
PCE, ADP, and Nonfarm triple hit, the market took a roller coaster ride, net gain for 7 days only about 0.5%
Why is the 87,000 barrier so hard to break?
📈 Price Card:
· Weekly range approximately 82,900 to 87,200｜Weekend about 84,900｜7 days about +0.5%
· 87,000 has been a resistance level for most of this year (21Shares)
🗓️ Three major events this week:
1️⃣ PCE cooling: BTC surged to 85,639 then retraced
2️⃣ ISM Price Index 77.9, 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.34%
3️⃣ Nonfarm only increased by 29,000: BTC surged to 87,239 then retraced
💰 ETF Funds:
BTC +82.9 million (last week +2.39 billion)｜$ETH -118 million｜$SOL +800,000
⚙️ Contracts: Open interest about 53.6 billion USD, weekend liquidations only about 4.24 million USD, market is quiet
🔮 Next week: Whether BTC can close above 87,000, whether ETF volume will pick up again, changes in December rate hike expectations.
What do you think about BTC next week?
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Woke up and still see this crazy coin hovering around 1300. After swinging in dozens of directions in a day, it finally settled here. Looks like the dog whales are doing quantitative trading to accumulate during the sideways movement. My short position opened at 800 probably won't break even until who knows when. I've been stuck for over a month and haven't dared to make any moves. Sideways trading is just torture; those who aren't firm have already cut losses and left. But I insist on being the