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大家早呀，国庆假期结束了，继续聊聊今天的大盘。 昨天大盘回调了一波，多数山寨也跟着跌了下来。目前反弹力度还是不够，回调后继续横盘，短期我个人依然按震荡调整来看。今天重点关注下方82000—82500附近。这一带能否守住，关系到大盘还能不能维持当前的震荡区间。如果失守，就要防着下跌进一步加速，对此需要重点留意。ETF资金面也要继续关注，最新披露的部分基金出现净流出，但完整数据还没出齐，后续继续看资金能否回流。 对于长期大方向，我个人看涨的观点依然不变。大盘和山寨同步回调下来，现货方面我还是倾向于逢低分批买入，继续按自己的节奏布局。 合约方面，今天我个人更偏向日内短多。已经回调了一波，先博一个反弹，等大盘进一步给出信号，再考虑继续持有、转为日线级别，还是获利止盈，不急着把短线反弹当成行情反转。不过短多也要看下方支撑能否守住。如果82000—82500失守，日内短多的思路就要重新评估，不能因为长期看涨就一直扛着。 具体点位： BTC先关注82500附近，下方结合82000一起看。 ETH这波回调更明显，如果大盘再次走弱，要防着进一步回撤，先关注2500附近。 SOL先关注113附近。 合约记$ZEC Dear teachers, the current price of ZEC is around 1324, shorting it immediately would be a disaster.
First, let's look at the whale position data. There are a total of 414 whales in the market, with 249 long positions and only 165 short positions. The average opening cost for longs is 991.35, and they currently have a floating profit of over 60 million. Shorts have an average opening at 1208 and are currently in an overall loss. The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 577.99%, indicating that the long positions among large holders are very heavy.
Here is a crucial point: most longs were established at very low levels, accumulating from around 900. After the recent continuous sharp drop from 1614, they still hold substantial profit cushions. As long as the market rises slightly, these profitable positions will have the impulse to cash out and exit, which is the biggest selling pressure from above. Although shorts are still losing money now, it does not mean the market will immediately pull back to save the shorts.
Looking at the technical candlesticks, the daily chart shows a very clear descending channel with highs continuously moving lower. The MA5 has already turned down and is pressing near the current price, while MA10 and MA20 remain at higher levels. Yesterday, the price briefly found support around 1270, which is just a small pause in the downtrend. The moving average system has not yet turned upward, so there is no confirmation of a reversal. The positive news about the ETF application has already been priced in by the market, and after the announcement, it did not bring new buying volume.$ETH is stuck oscillating within the 2500-2600 range, with a clear selling pressure zone above 2600. The low point of 2532 after the minutes held steady, and the relief bounce high at 2562 turned into a short-term ceiling.Market weakened, yesterday's operation review:
The first big bearish candle of BTC dropped, clearing all long positions.
This was the long-awaited signal to short selected weak targets (BTC, Dogecoin) following the trend.
Next plan: wait for a rebound, short again on the rebound.#US Treasury long-term yields hit new highs again, 30-year approaching 5.7%
The leader has something to say
US Treasury long-term yields have hit new highs again. The 30-year intraday reached 5.706%, the highest since 2002. The 10-year reached 5.349%. The ISM Services PMI Price Index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022.
Inflation pressure hasn't eased, so long-term rates can't come down. The FOMC minutes show a unanimous vote to raise rates by 25 basis points, with the dot plot revised upward; most officials expect another hike before year-end, no rate cuts in advance. The economy and employment are resilient, inflation is sticky, and oil prices and geopolitics are still pushing.
With this combination, the valuation ceiling for risk assets remains. BTC is unlikely to strengthen independently in the short term.
My 86500 short position is still open. The logic hasn't changed: positive news is priced in, resistance is dense above, and funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87500, target 84500 to 85000. Time to reduce positions, keep the rest at breakeven.
Control position size well, avoid heavy exposure. Don't rush to buy longs if long-term rates don't fall. Set stop losses properly, don't hold through losses.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 7u challenge to 100 million!
Day 48
Principal 7u, target 100 million
Currently: 3900u
Living cost: 2850u
Available funds: 1000u+
During the National Day long holiday, I went back to my hometown and basically didn't check the market for a week, let alone scan the chain. I fished for a few days, then drank every day, drinking at noon and continuing at night.
Spent 250u, basically didn't spend much money, food and drinks were all covered by my cousins. Made some extra money these past few months, so I can treat them to something nice during the New Year.
1. During the long term, Bitcoin has been in a volatile market. Currently, $BTC is supported at 82,500 and resistance is at 87,000. It’s fluctuating back and forth within this range; breaking out means a directional move.
2. $UNI and $ZEC, which surged recently, have both pulled back, but I prefer pumps. Let’s see if the basic data can recover later.
3. I don’t even know what people are playing with in meme coins now. A friend just told me about a coin that surged a long time ago, but I sold it long ago, crying in pain.
Now the principal is only 1000 USD, need to expand the principal scale and continue my three ways to earn principal: writing content, doing contracts, and pumping meme coins!
Bull market, we can win!50x short $DOGE, +334.76%. At the moment the numbers jumped, I felt very calm.
The huge profits from contracts are just a mirage; securing profits is the reality. Deleted my watchlist, no longer watching the market.
Only holding two long-term: BTC (faith) and OKB (potential).
The logic of $OKB is very clear: it has the flexibility of altcoins and the foundation of an exchange. 21 million locked, X Layer deflation.
1.8 billion vs. 80 billion, no movement before fulfillment.
Message: Greed, anger, ignorance, pride, doubt—all exist in the crypto world. Stay clear-headed, lock in BTC and OKB for the long term, and exit the casino. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Pudgy Penguins' Ethereum L2 network Abstract announced its shutdown, becoming the second L2 to fall within a week; following the news, $OP dropped 10% in one day, and $MNT and $ARB also fell about 7-10%.
L2 shutdown wave! The second L2 down in a week
Many people have the misconception that once a chain is on the mainnet, it is "permanently online," but L2 shutdowns are nothing new. This time it's Abstract by Pudgy Penguins, the second L2 to shut down within a week, and the related tokens OP, MNT, and ARB all plunged collectively on the same day, showing the market is voting with its feet: the trial-and-error cost of the L2 narrative is rising.
For ordinary users, the shutdown itself is not scary; what’s scary is that assets remain on that chain. Remember three self-protection steps: first, check the official announcement for the shutdown schedule and note the deadline of the withdrawal grace period; second, before the deadline, use the official bridge to transfer assets back to the Ethereum mainnet—don’t try to save costs by using third-party cross-chain bridges; third, after the grace period, the official bridge may close, making asset retrieval very difficult, so don’t delay.
Also, don’t panic sell related L2 tokens—the news often causes an initial oversell followed by a recovery. If you want to act, place conditional orders and set stop losses on spot markets; don’t chase the price. The L2 sector will continue to reshuffle; choose ecosystems with strong backing and solid endorsements, as those leaders have a higher chance of survival. $PENGU $BTC perpetual, 100x short, yield +350.32%. Strategy execution completed, mechanical take profit.
Sentiment is the biggest enemy of trading. After giving up high-leverage speculation on the overall market, the base position allocation logic is extremely simplified:
• $OKB: OKX ecosystem moat, 21 million total supply locked, supported by X Layer Gas deflation model.
• $BTC: the only true belief.
OKB's current $1.8 billion market cap compared to BNB's $80 billion shows a clear expectation gap.
Warning: 100x leverage is a high-risk meat grinder. Short-term can go to zero, long-term relies on BTC and OKB. Preserve principal. $ZEC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $UNI Teachers, in this round, the UNI daily chart directly broke through the short-term moving averages MA5 and MA10, with a high of 9.319 and a pullback, currently at 7.91.
On-chain whales: there are 216 long whales with an average entry at 7.0759; 161 short whales with an average short entry at 8.319. Nearly 90% of the short positions are profitable, indicating that the bears have already taken profits in this decline.
All short-term moving averages are turning downward, showing a clear pressure pattern. On the daily level, a continuation of the pullback is expected for now.
Offensive position: 7.72
Defensive position: 8.35Last night’s 20 minutes were brutal. Bitcoin dropped sharply from above 85,000 to 82,776, losing nearly two thousand dollars in less than twenty minutes. Nearly 700 million was wiped out across the entire market in 24 hours, affecting 120,000 people, almost all of whom were long.
Currently around 83,200. The first support below is 80,800; if 81,000 breaks, there’s a high chance of another round of forced liquidations. This kind of low-volume, slow decline is the most exhausting; I’m holding off on bottom fishing for now.
Let’s also look at those on the brink of liquidation.
Over 38,000 ETH contracts, a $100 million position, opened at 2682, liquidation price at 2521. ETH is now at 2,570—less than 2% away from that line.
Margin usage is at 98.3%, nothing can be withdrawn from the account, 20x leverage, with cumulative losses of $28.51 million, $4.78 million lost in just one day.
Some say his win rate is 64%. But so what? The profits are small when winning, but he holds on stubbornly during losses until liquidation; winning ten times can’t cover one loss.
More importantly, this market right now. The Glassnode analyst put it bluntly: spot exchanges and ETF volumes are abnormally low; right now it’s a battle of positions, not real money buying.
In a market without incremental buying, the easiest way for whales to crash the price is to push it down sharply and clear out the leverage. $BTC $ETH $ARB Teachers, the ARB daily chart has formed a large bearish candlestick, directly breaking below the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages. The price is now around 0.1859.
Looking at the whale data, there are a total of 149 long positions with an average entry at 0.2115, all currently at a floating loss, with only 19.46% of longs in profit; on the short side, there are 130 positions with an average entry at 0.1807. The short positions slightly outweigh the longs in volume, but some are also at a floating loss, indicating that longs and shorts are currently pulling against each other.
Technically, the short term has entered a weak zone, with the moving averages above forming layered resistance, and the short-term trend is bearish.
Offensive level: 0.1770
Defensive level: 0.1975Junze's Thursday Ethereum Analysis [Price Trend Analysis]
1. Candlestick Pattern: The 4-hour chart shows that recently, despite some lower shadows or small bullish candles on October 7th at 08:00 and 04:00, the rebound strength was limited and failed to effectively break through short-term resistance.
2. Technical Indicators:
MACD: On the 4-hour chart, both DIF and DEA are running below the zero line, with DIF continuously crossing below DEA. The MACD histogram is negative and continues to expand, indicating the market is in a strong bearish trend.
3. Volume: On the 4-hour chart during October 7th at 08:00, a large volume accompanied the price drop, confirming the "sharp decline combined with increased volume" assessment.
The National Day holiday is over, and starting today, Junze will continue to provide daily analysis with entry points!
Currently, the depth of the pullback in this market is deeper than Junze expected. However, Junze believes that all current pullbacks are opportunities to enter. The overall bullish outlook remains unchanged, but as the pullback breaks through the consolidation box, market sentiment will definitely be somewhat subdued. The rise may not be as strong as before, and the market still needs to build some sentiment.
In terms of operation, open long positions near 2550 on pullbacks, with take profits at 2585-2625-2685.
Avoid heavy positions! As Junze mentioned in previous posts, there is a high probability of a box-shaped consolidation. Now that the upper boundary of the consolidation has been broken and the price has reached the lower boundary, wait for direction—either a return to the box or a break below 2500, which will roughly confirm the direction!
$ETH $BTC $PUMP Teachers, the current price of PUMP is around 0.00622. The daily chart has started to show signs of stagnation, with the price oscillating and pausing near the previous high.
According to whale data, there are a total of 194 long positions, with an average entry price of 0.00511; more than half of these positions are already in profit. On the short side, there are 118 positions, currently overall at a loss. The volume of long positions is significantly larger, but there is selling pressure above in the short term.
The MA5 is slightly pressing above the current price, indicating a short-term pullback bias.
Attack level: 0.00574
Defense level: 0.00685Multicoin连续向Coinbase Prime转HYPE，短线压力开始值得重视。
据TradingBeats监测，Multicoin约4小时前再次向Coinbase Prime转入6.75万枚HYPE。更值得注意的是，过去4周Multicoin累计转入超过76万枚HYPE，价值约6299万美元。
这个量已经不算小了，市场自然会开始担心一个问题：这些HYPE最终会不会进入现货市场？
但这里需要区分清楚：转入Coinbase Prime不等于已经卖出，也可能是托管、资金管理或其他机构操作。真正的利空确认，要看后续是否出现持续卖盘以及链上转账是否继续增加。
从交易角度，我现在不会因为一笔转账直接追空HYPE，而是看“资金流+价格”能不能形成共振。
如果Multicoin继续向交易平台转入HYPE，同时HYPE放量跌破短线支撑，说明潜在供应正在转化成真实抛压，短线需要降低仓位。
如果持续转入但价格始终跌不动，甚至出现放量上涨，那反而说明市场承接能力很强，机构筹码可能正在被资金消化。
所以这次真正的交易信号不是76万枚HYPE已经转了多少，而是后面还有没有继续转，以及转完之后价格怎么走。
Brothers, brothers, there isn't much data now, so jump in for a quick gain, or you'll be letting yourself down! Hurry up and go big, but remember it has to be short-term.
$MET current price is 0.4601, up 38.83% in 24 hours. I opened a long at 0.4583, now the mark price is 0.4601, floating profit +0.39U, return +1.17%. The gain isn't big, but the direction is right.
Why must you go long with this data now?
First, the funding rate has collapsed. The funding rate has dropped directly to around -0.72%! Shorts are paying longs every second they hold their positions; the fuel for short squeeze has reached its limit.
Second, shorts are extremely crowded. The contract long-short account ratio shows shorts account for 67.69%, longs only 32.31%, long-short ratio 0.48. Retail traders are frantically shorting, thinking it should pull back after such a rise. But would the big players be so kind to let shorts profit?
Third, the market structure is biased to the long side. 24-hour increase of 38.83%, price stands firmly above the moving average, volume supports it, the short-term trend is still in the hands of the bulls.
Trading idea: Enter a light long position near the current price, set stop loss below 0.42, first target at 0.52, if broken then 0.58. But remember, it must be short-term, quick in and out, take a bite and run, don't get attached to the fight.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 This market is really full of love, with ups and downs. When it rises, everyone sells in batches; when it falls, everyone buys in batches!
First, to make a statement: this decline is just a healthy correction of wave A in the early stage of the bull market, a healthy shakeout of the bulls!
If this correction negatively affects your mindset or life, then you must be speculating!
For coins above 8.5, with gains more than doubled, we have taken out our principal and even part of the profits, leaving less than 30% of the profits as a base position! Just waiting for the price to drop, then reinvest the profits!
So when to enter altcoins after this drop?
For those currently with empty positions (the first position can be a bit aggressive), you can start counting from the first bearish weekly candle of the correction, and after at least 4 weekly candles, wait for another bearish weekly candle; or after breaking below 80,000, a bottom pattern forms with multiple daily bullish divergences!
For those like us who still hold chips, we can be much more calm! Divide the layout into two parts below 80,000 and 76,000 for mainstream coins!
Whether you are a cycle player or a short-term speculator, you must use idle Q; otherwise, the bull market that should earn Q will end up losing Q.
My understanding of idle Q is not the Q you don't use today/this week/this month, but the idle Q that you don't need to use for at least one cycle of 3-4 years! It must be the surplus idle Q after planning and arranging your family life for the next 3-4 years!
I will share later the target tiers for wave B layout after wave A correction ends.
Wishing everyone to ride the bull market wind and get rich, and have a seaside villa together$SOL This SOL115 still can't be broken, as I said yesterday, only breaking 115 can continue to go down
Let's see if it can effectively break through today. Now 115 is the last defense point for the bulls, and the current trend is a low-level range oscillation
It should still drop another wave. If it breaks through, the downtrend will continue. Below you can see 110-108
$BTC Bitcoin is also at the last weekly defense point. The market is precarious now, and the 82500-83000 level is still holding strong
Currently in a low-level consolidation, with short pressure at 83500-84000. The bears are very strong, giving no chance for a rebound
Without sufficient funds and news driving it, it is still very difficult to break through. If it breaks here, it will be a volume sell-off
Still consolidating and preparing to sell off. If it breaks 82500, there will be no short-term defense below, and it is very likely to directly enter the 80K defense battleReceipt pagination does not make transactions faster, but it prevents node synchronization from being overwhelmed by large packets
After the block capacity increases, the transaction receipt list will also grow. Receipts record execution status, Gas usage, logs, and other information. If nodes must transmit the entire list at once during synchronization, extreme blocks may generate excessively large network responses, causing memory pressure, timeouts, or even synchronization failures. Some receipt list schemes in eth/70 allow nodes to request segments, breaking a large packet into multiple manageable smaller packets.
Pagination does not change the transaction execution results, nor does it make already confirmed transactions finalize faster. It optimizes how nodes transfer result data, similar to supporting chunked resumable downloads for large files. Implementation still needs to prevent duplication, missing pages, and order errors, and ensure that the concatenated receipt root matches the block commitment; otherwise, "easier to transmit" might become "easier to lose."
This network layer change is unlikely to become a $ETH market narrative, but it directly relates to operability after scaling. If the Gas limit increase only considers execution speed without addressing the worst-case sizes of receipts, logs, and synchronization messages, nodes will crash along another path. Allowing data to be safely paginated is about realizing capacity growth in real software, not just increasing numbers in parameter tables.现在不是追涨阶段，更像拉升后的博弈窗口，谁在裸泳要看资金费率说话。 BTC 卡在 85K 到 87K 之间，你猜多头还剩多少耐心？ 我盯着 $BTC $JUP $PUMP 看了一整晚，最大的感受是：价格没怎么动，但衍生品那边已经开始躁了。先聊 BTC，85K 是这波多头结构的底线，只要不丢，回踩都算洗筹；真正有意思的是 87K，一旦带量突破，89K 到 90K 会被快速测试。但注意，永续持仓已经堆得比较满，资金费率如果继续偏正，突破前很可能先来一次向下插针，把高杠杆多头清掉再走。所以这里的偏多逻辑是结构没坏，风险则是挤压方向随时可能反着来。 $JUP 在 0.20 上方勉强撑着复苏形态，0.23 是短线分水岭，过了才看 0.25 以上。它的弱点是成交量没跟上，山寨的情绪溢价在退，如果 BTC 横太久，JUP 这种中市值更容易被抽走注意力。反过来，只要 BTC 稳住，JUP 的弹性其实比大饼好，适合等确认而不是抢跑。 $PUMP 这边，动能就是全部。没有量的突破都是假的，有量的突破才可能开下一段。但 meme 类衍生品的脆弱点在于，一旦资金费率飙太快，多头拥挤度上去，回撤也会很暴力。 现9-year veteran whale liquidates ETH, pocketing $24.21 million, 2570 level holds strong, I'm still bullish
$ETH currently at 2583.53, down 3.9% in 24h, this morning it briefly dropped to a low of 2537 USD but was quickly bought back. At this level, I'm directly bullish — an oversold rebound during a high-level pullback phase, better to take profits early.
With US-Iran tensions escalating, oil prices and US Treasury yields rising in tandem, ETH pulled back from 2537 to around 2699; Abstract and Blast, two L2s, shut down simultaneously, BitMine chairman Tom Lee bluntly said institutional holdings are near their limit, removing buying expectations. The 9-year veteran whale pinosaur.eth took advantage of the chaos to liquidate, profiting $24.21 million, 65x — these chips have been handed over, yet the price stubbornly did not break down.
First, a 24h -3.9% volume-driven sell-off, with 2570 support firmly held; second, daily RSI at 45.4 neutral, funding rate -2.227e-05 near zero, leverage not overheated, mainly spot positions. The long-short account ratio is 3.363, longs are a bit crowded, stop-loss is a must.
Resistance above: 2690
Support below: 2570
Don't chase highs during a high-level pullback, 2570 holding is a low-buy window, if it breaks below the previous low of 2537, I'll admit I'm wrong and turn bearish.
Entry at current price 2583.53, if it breaks 2570 I'll cut losses and exit, if it holds, aiming for 2690. Watching the market, follow me for the next signal.
$ETH $BTC$CT perpetual contract 20x short position: opened at 0.4823, now 0.3692, +469.00%.
Basis: large sell orders pressure + volume gap, bearish momentum confirmed. Stop loss at 0.52, not triggered.
Execution: take profit on 50% position, move stop loss on remaining position up to 0.40. Volume breakout at 0.35, hold short until 0.3, low volume bottoming to clear position. Refuse emotional averaging down, close the trade cleanly and decisively. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Yesterday afternoon I said: I won't open a single long position on ETH this week. Woke up to see the answer.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
ETH ground down from 2616 yesterday afternoon to a low of 2536 at 1 AM, dropping an hour before the minutes were released as a sign of respect, now at 2581.
What’s even more painful is the ETF: On October 6, ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $202 million, all sold by BlackRock’s ETHA alone, marking the sixth consecutive day of outflows and the largest single-day outflow since September 16. On the same day, BTC spot ETFs actually had a net inflow of $119 million. The money hasn’t left the space; it’s moving from ETH to BTC. ETH/BTC was 0.0316 three days ago, now 0.0310.
So I won’t change my stance: if 2600 doesn’t hold, I won’t open any ETH longs; if I’m going to enter, I’ll start with BTC first.
$ETH
To the brothers still holding ETH longs, here’s one more chance: give me a reason to convince me, and I’ll publicly take back this statement. $ETH perpetual contract 100x short position, opened at 2713.14, now at 2577.59, floating profit +499.60%.
2713.14 is like a kite with a broken string, after the bulls pulled it up, they let go directly. I followed the trend down, fully leveraged 100x to ride this free fall.
First, pocket half the profit, and set the remaining to breakeven at 2650. If 2500 can still be broken through by momentum, hold on a bit longer; once the drop slows and buying picks up, close the position and get out immediately. $BTC $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Yesterday afternoon I asked here: The minutes come out at 02:00, are you staying up late to watch, or placing orders and going straight to sleep?
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
Answer: Those who slept won. At 02:00, BTC's highest was 83,490 and lowest 83,159, fluctuating 330 dollars within an hour, with trading volume just over 10 million U, the quietest candle last night. The real drop was before the minutes, at 21:00 the price suddenly dropped to 82,753, with 62 million U traded, the largest volume last night.
The minutes themselves said: Most officials think another rate hike before the end of the year might be appropriate. But the market's pricing for a rate hike in October has dropped from about 70% right after the September meeting to around 20%. In other words, October will most likely pause first, keeping the December option in hand. The next real window is the CPI on 10/14.
My plan remains unchanged: 82.7k was the low given last night, I won't chase shorts before it breaks; only if it stands back above 84.6k will I believe this cut is over.
$BTC
A practical question: The minutes didn't cause a drop, do you think it's A) the bad news is fully priced in and a rebound is due, or B) the drop is still coming, waiting for CPI? Comment below, I'll reply one by one.💥💥💥大盘走势
$BTC ，山寨普跌。美股从历史高位回调。
💥💥💥💥市场热点：
1、sol生态dex的$MET 逆势上涨约38%。Meteora推出DLMM Pro预期，协议DEX成交量升至1.87亿美元，活跃地址创周内新高；met资金费率约-0.073%，上涨过程中存在明显逼空。
2、元宇宙概念的$SAND 上涨约13%，延续韩国交易所解除风险警示后的炒作。sand资金费率约-0.035%，空头继续承压，但mana仅小幅上涨，板块联动有限。
3、sol链dex代币ray上涨约10%，jup上涨约3.5%。在sol本身下跌约3.6%的情况下，资金逆势轮动至低市值dex代币，短线投机特征明显。
4、l2板块领跌，op下跌约6%、arb下跌约6%。Abstract成为一周内第二个暂停运行的以太坊l2，进一步打击板块情绪。
5、美国政府地址近 32 小时转出约 6.7 亿美元加密资产。 涉及约 6,215.7 BTC、1.19 亿 USDT 与 40,285 BNB，监测称 BTC、USDT 转入 Coinbase Prime；链上转移不等于官方确认出售
6、美Try the long position on $OFC again
Bought 500 contracts, come on, give me another crash
I already lost over 2000u here before
This time I bought less, afraid of a run
The project team joked that if you run, don't turn it into a real run haha
I'll first build a base position.
I also opened a base short position on $MET
220 contracts, don't dare to go long anymore
Feels like the market maker still wants to pump some funding fees
The long-short ratio is only around 0.4 now
Actually not suitable to open shorts now
It's okay, I opened very few, planning to add positions later
$CAP actually recovered yesterday after the drop
But I didn't sell, break-even just means no loss
No profit, I don't want to leave
When it rose to 0.1, I also didn't add short positions
Afraid of being squeezed out, with the current position
I won't add or reduce positions, just hold like this
Hold until unlocking starts, hold until profit is madeThere is an important support level below ETH Ethereum for going long!
Technical aspect: 2493 falls within a multi-support resonance zone
2493 is close to the 2500 round number level, and below it is the daily support band from 2,535 to 2,580. This range converges the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, the 50-day simple moving average, and the 200-week simple moving average. Ethereum's current price has fallen back near the 50-day moving average. Analyst Merlijn The Trader clearly points out that as long as the 2500 to 2560 area holds, ETH still has a chance to rise toward $3000. The stochastic indicator has dropped into a deep oversold region, with %K at 13.80 and %D at 11.04, and the price is almost touching the lower Bollinger Band. Oversold conditions are usually followed by a technical rebound correction.
Trading strategy
Light long positions near 2493, with stop loss placed below 2430, which is the daily 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level breach point. The first target is 2680 to 2700, a resistance zone where EMA12 and pivot points resonate. After breaking through, look toward the 2760 to 2780 area around the 100-week moving average. Position size should be controlled between 10% and 15%, with leverage not exceeding 3x.
At the 2493 level, oversold signals, support resonance, and short liquidation potential overlap, making the risk-reward ratio favorable. But do not go heavy; wait for a clear stabilization signal at the support level before adding positions. $ETH Moody's gave Sky Protocol a B3 rating.
Sounds impressive, after all, it's Moody's first time rating a stablecoin protocol.
But when I looked at that number again, I almost laughed.
$10 billion in assets under management, but only $90 million in backing equity.
What does that mean? Roughly calculated, that's about a hundred times leverage.
Moody's itself calls this a "significant credit weakness."
In plain terms: the pot is laid out big, but the foundation is frighteningly thin.
I've fallen into this kind of trap before—seeing a project with a large scale and assuming it's stable, but in reality, they're walking a tightrope.
However, from another perspective, Moody's willingness to rate it at least shows that this industry is starting to be taken seriously by legitimate institutions.
Do you think this rating is pouring cold water on Sky, or opening the door for the entire DeFi space?
#美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 $ZEC Checked OKX's trading data from yesterday, and $BTC's drop this time feels a bit "fake."
Yesterday, a total of 6,256 spot units were traded, 40% more than the previous day. Breaking it down, spot aggressive buys were 2,714 units, while aggressive sells were only 2,168 units, so there were actually buyers on the spot side.
The real dump came from futures. Between 9 PM and 11 PM last night, aggressive futures sells exceeded buys by over 200 million dollars, pushing the price down to 82,753, which was the 24-hour low.
From 3 AM to 7 AM today, spot volume was only about 80 to 100 units per hour, shrinking significantly. At 8 AM, volume rose to 270 units, but the price didn’t go up, hovering around 83,200.
My understanding: spot holders didn’t flee; the drop was mainly driven by leverage. The low-volume consolidation at the bottom isn’t rushing to move; wait for volume to push back above 84,000 before making a call. If 82,750 breaks, then accept it first. $ETH at 2,580 is also following down.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #Volume #DataAnalysis #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; don’t use heavy leverage just by looking at the data. Today's trend is a bit frustrating! Damn!
Damn it!
$ETH is now stuck around 2579, moving slightly, while Bitcoin stays flat, so it just bounces back and forth.
The market is all waiting for tonight's initial jobless claims data; funds are all cautious, not daring to make big moves.
Real trading challenge starts at 18.78u and pushes upward!
Currently holding $ETH long positions, already up 13%.
Don't be fooled by the slight rebound now; this is just tentative buying during the wait-and-see period, not large-scale capital entering.
There are three scenarios: if data is bearish, it will directly drop back to 2530; if data meets expectations, it will continue to oscillate between 2540-2620; if data is significantly weak, it will surge above 2660.
Don't get your head hot and rush in because of this small bullish candle.
The comfortable mid-to-long-term long position is still around 2530; don't chase the current price.
If the rebound reaches above 2655, that would be a good long-term short position.
Tonight's data is the key to breaking the deadlock; before that, it's most likely boring sideways tug-of-war.
#InitialJoblessClaimsDataDropsTonight #ETHWaitingForDirection
$ETH $BTC50x long $QUANT, opened at 245.2 and held until 250.9, floating profit +116.23%.
The best feeling isn't the numbers on the screen, but just now clearing out a long list of altcoin watchlists with one click, leaving only BTC and OKB.
No matter how lively the small coins are, they are just fireworks; $OKB is the hard asset that few dare to hold long-term:
1. Sufficient elasticity, stable depth;
2. OKX moat + 21 million permanently locked + X Layer Gas deflation.
BTC is faith, OKB is the unrealized 40x (1.8 billion USD compared to $BNB's 80 billion).
You crave the gains, but the whales focus on the principal. For the long term, only lock these two; the rest is just passing money. Stay clear-headed, surviving is winning. $ETH $ZEC #Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 #OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资 The chip accumulation at this position of SUI is almost settled. During the two recent market pullbacks, the buy orders underneath have been particularly solid, with the 4-hour level lows continuously rising, showing no sign of panic.
Currently, the liquidity in the market is limited; the heavy positions of the old players can't move the market at all. All funds are focusing on these new public chains with relatively light selling pressure to play for elasticity. APT is also starting to show some signs of catching up. These two are closely linked, so it's worth closely monitoring the breakout volume nodes.
$BNB $CAKE $TWT I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Here's the latest pre-market intelligence on $BTC
Positive factors: US spot ETF net inflow of 118.86 million, Belayek IBIT alone took 122 million;
Robinhood's balance sheet increased holdings by 300 BTC; Saylor called for banks to custody BTC and provide 100 billion in credit, corresponding to new supply over ten years.
Risk factors: BTC fell below 84,000, dropping 2,000 in 20 minutes, Iran's Hormuz conflict pushed crude oil above 101, US Treasury yields surged to 5.35%.
Over 500 million long positions liquidated in 24 hours, accounting for 88%. Four new wallets pre-stored USDC and opened 40x short positions worth 12.5 million before the 84,000 break, clearly targeting.
Remember to control leverage, don't get eaten by chained liquidations.
$ETH also broke below 2600!
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $ENA perpetual contract 50x short position, opened at 0.25986, now at 0.22527, +665.55%.
Frequent large order cancellations at the 0.25986 level to lure longs, the main force distributing at the high position was seen through by me. Followed the trend with 50x short, accurately capturing the cliff-like drop.
Half position taken profit, dynamic stop loss moved to 0.24. If it breaks 0.22 and sell orders continue to pile up, watch 0.2; if there is a large order supporting the price on the order book, immediately close all positions. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Overall, the account looks pretty good today. The three short positions are basically hovering near their cost lines, and the overall account is basically flat.
SOL: Entry price 116.31, current price 116.31, isolated margin 20X, floating profit 0.2U, ROI +0.10%. The largest position is on SOL, margin 1248U. It was just opened and is basically near the cost price. Continuing to hold and looking downward, the initial target is 110. Will consider taking partial profits once it reaches there.
BTC: Entry price 83,273.3, current price 83,264.62, isolated margin 20X, floating profit 0.12U, ROI +0.20%. The short position was just entered. The mark price is slightly below the entry price, with a slight profit. Holding and observing for now. As long as BTC doesn't break 84,000, there shouldn't be much problem. The downside target is 81,000.
ETH: Entry price 2,581.42, current price 2,582.27, isolated margin 20X, floating loss 0.32U, ROI -0.65%. The short was just opened today and is slightly underwater, but the loss is very small, so no worries. Continuing to hold and looking downward, the initial target is 2,500.
Summary: The liquidation prices for all three are far away (it would need to rise about 32% to trigger). Position management is focused on making money with shorts; if the direction is right, just hold on. No worries even if slightly underwater.
Finally, wishing everyone eternal life.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7%
#OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资 BTC short-term strategy suggestions:
Primary strategy (short on pullback): Short at 83,600-84,400 (place orders in batches) on the rebound, stop loss at 84,700, targets at 82,560 → 82,424 → 81,500 → 80,200. Currently, 83,356 can be lightly held first, add shorts on pullback.
Secondary strategy (breakdown chase short): Short when breaking below 82,700, stop loss at 83,400, targets 81,100-80,200.
Long position handling: For longs trapped below 85,000, reduce positions on pullback at 83,800-84,200; for mid-term longs to be retained, must wait for wave C to stabilize in the 80,200-81,100 range (volume contraction + Delta turning positive + 15-minute bottom fractal) before reassessment.
Risk control red line (bears): If volume recovers above 84,650 → all short positions stop loss and exit (breakdown failed, return to triangle consolidation); recovery above 85,200 → double top invalidated, abandon bearish mindset.
Left-side bottom fishing (high risk): Only consider lightly trying longs to catch wave D rebound (target 84,000-85,000) after clear stabilization signals appear in wave C target zone 80,200-81,100, with strict stop loss below 79,400.
$BTC #星球日报 20x short on $SECZ, opened at 12.594 and smashed down to 11.457, floating profit +180.56%!
Don’t envy this doubling number! The real thrill is that I just cleared a long list of altcoin picks with one click, leaving only BTC and OKB!
No matter how much the small fry jump around, they’re just fireworks; $OKB is the solid asset worth holding long-term:
1. Wild enough elasticity, stable enough depth;
2. OKX moat + 21 million permanently locked + X Layer Gas deflation!
BTC is faith, OKB is the unrealized 40x (1.8 billion USD vs. $BNB’s 80 billion)!
You crave the gains, but the whales focus on the principal! Long-term only lock these two, the rest is just passing money! Stay clear-headed, surviving is winning! $ZEC $SOL #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $OKB: Go long!
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back and stabilize within the 128.50-130.00 range (24-hour low and key psychological support zone) before entering a long position.
· The initial target is 136.83 (24-hour high); a valid breakout will target the previous high at 143.57. Set stop-loss below 127.00.
Core rationale:
1. Trend structure intact: Strong rally from the 119.44 low to 143.57, overall in a bullish uptrend. The current pullback is a normal technical correction after a sharp rise; the main trend remains bullish.
2. Rising bottom support: Price stabilized near 128.12, forming a short-term low significantly higher than the previous low at 119.44, indicating a steadily rising bottom and a solid bullish defense.
3. Good volume-price coordination: The earlier rally was accompanied by significant volume increase; the current pullback shows a sharp volume decline, indicating that major funds have not fled, selling pressure is exhausted, typical of a consolidation phase in an uptrend.
$BTC
#OKXNOW: Opening a new era of 24/7 markets The most satisfying thing isn't the numbers on the screen, but just now when I cleared a long list of altcoins with one click, leaving only BTC and OKB.
No matter how lively the small coins are, they're just fireworks; $OKB is one of the few solid assets worth holding long-term:
1. Flexible enough and deep enough;
2. OKX moat + 21 million permanently locked + X Layer Gas deflation.
BTC is faith, OKB is an unrealized 40x (1.8 billion USD compared to $BNB's 80 billion).
You crave the gains, but the whales focus on the principal. For the long term, only lock these two; the rest is just passing money. Stay clear-headed, surviving is winning. $BTC $ETH #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% 10小时，5.66亿美元。4632枚BTC、1.19亿USDT、750枚WBTC，全部转出。 链上监测已经炸了。过去32小时，美国政府累计转移了超过6.7亿美元的加密资产，6215枚BTC、1.19亿USDT、40285枚BNB。BTC和USDT全进了Coinbase Prime。 关键信息在这里： 这批资产不是普通的政府持仓。3974枚BTC来自2016年Bitfinex黑客案，657枚BTC和750枚WBTC来自FTX/Alameda案件扣押资产。都是历史大案的赃物。 但转出不等于卖出。 Coinbase Prime在2024年被美国法警局选为官方托管和交易服务商。转入Prime可能是托管、可能是整理、也可能是为后续处置做准备。目前没有确认卖出。 真正需要盯的是后续： · BTC如果继续从Prime流向交易所现货地址，短期抛压信号； · USDT如果进入交易路径，可能意味着资金在调配； · 政府目前仍持有约280亿美元的加密资产，大头是32.4万枚BTC。 BTC刚经历一轮清算，政府钱包又来这么一出。市场情绪本来就脆，这种级别的链上异动，多头得盯紧。 转移不等于抛售，但5.66亿已Gold $XAU market repeatedly surges and falls back, with sharp drops and rebounds; key support and resistance levels frequently experience false breakouts, resulting in irregular short-term trends. Currently, there is a 4-hour bullish divergence rebound. Short-term resistance is at 4185-4226. Only if the price stabilizes above 4226 can the downtrend end. The 4113-3950 range is the main accumulation zone for over a month at the start of this rally, making it difficult to break below. This area is suitable for long positions.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC $ETH $ETH Fed minutes turned hawkish, triggering a sharp crypto sell-off.
$ETH is deeply oversold, with negative funding hinting at a possible short-term bounce. But the bigger trend remains weak below $2,674.
Watch $2,532 support and $2,620–$2,670 for a potential rebound zone. ⚠️"The rebound is candy, chasing longs gets you shot"
Price grinds down while contract positions surge — this is not bottom building, it's leverage stacking up. ETH long-short ratio is 1.89, BTC is equally crowded; retail mistakes the slow decline for a discount, while the big players are watching this leveraged long army. 🐻❄️
Technical side? KDJ at low levels only gives an excuse for a bounce, not a reversal qualification. Low volume + long-short imbalance, the sharper the rebound, the more it looks like a bull trap; trendline resistance caps, rallies often mean distribution. ⚠️
So, don’t rush the rebound, don’t bet on one-sided moves. In the meat grinder, the most expensive three words are "bottom fishing." Manage position size, be patient, stay out or enter with small positions quickly; bullets are worth more than courage. 🛡️
Remember: bottoms grow out of despair, tops collapse when "gold is everywhere." $BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $MET LOL 🤣 Up 38% in one day, but this looks more like whale manipulation than a real breakout.
Indicators are heavily overbought, so I’m not chasing the pump. 🎯
Short zone: 0.4610–0.4615
Strong resistance: 0.4743 — above it, cut the idea
TP: 0.4305 → 0.3968
Wait for the rebound, then short. ⚠️Brothers, it's short, short, hurry up and go short now, you will definitely make a profit if you go short now! Look at the current data.
$NMR current price is 15.345, rebounded 6.21% in 24 hours, my short position average entry price is 16.302, already earned 17.61%, liquidation price 1619. There are tens of thousands of sell orders pressing between 15.352 and 15.348 above the market, 118 orders directly placed at 15.348, the selling pressure is piled up like a mountain.
Now look at the latest long-short data. Long accounts hold 76%, short accounts only 24%, longs clearly dominate. This structure favors shorts — the more crowded the longs, the less fuel there is to push up, once it can't break through, a long squeeze and crash will be very brutal.
Why is shorting now definitely profitable? The core logic has three points: First, the funding rate has turned positive to 0.005%, the previous short squeeze structure where shorts paid money is over. Second, the Upbit listing benefit has been fully realized, the high of 17.58 has fallen back near 15.3, profit-taking is continuously escaping. Third, all chips between 16 and 17 are trapped chasing highs, a rebound above 15.5 will encounter dense selling pressure.
From a technical perspective, 15.3 is short-term support, if it doesn't hold the next target is 14.5. 16 above is strong resistance, failure to break through forms a double top structure.
Brothers, don't hesitate, go short now
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 20x long on $AVNT, opened at 0.1218 and held until 0.12838, floating profit +108.04%.
The most satisfying thing isn’t the numbers on the screen, but just now clearing out a long list of altcoins with one click, leaving only BTC and OKB.
No matter how lively the small coins are, they’re just fireworks; $OKB is one of the few solid assets worth holding long-term:
1. Sufficient volatility, stable depth;
2. OKX moat + 21 million permanently locked + X Layer Gas deflation.
BTC is faith, OKB is the unrealized 40x (1.8 billion USD compared to $BNB’s 80 billion).
You crave the gains, but the whales focus on the principal. For the long term, only lock these two; the rest is just passing money. Stay clear-headed, surviving is winning. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 #BTC whale sell pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks
After barely surviving the long holiday and gearing up to make a big move, the Americans come to spoil it again! Early in the morning, I ran into news about the US government transferring coins to exchanges. Damn! You didn’t transfer during the long National Day holiday, but now that the holiday is over and trading is about to start, you come to dump?! It seems China and the US really are rivals.
So here’s my take on this matter:
Conclusion first: a short-term emotional bomb, but in the long term it’s "stock repositioning," not necessarily a dump.
In this transfer, BTC and USDT all went into Coinbase Prime, while BNB changed hands a few times mid-route, destination unknown.
Coinbase Prime is a custody and institutional brokerage platform, not a retail exchange. Coins going there might just be switching custodians or preparing for an OTC auction process, not necessarily being dumped on the order book immediately. Historically, when the US government handled the Silk Road coins, the main method was batch auctions, not direct market sell-offs.
But—markets always trade on expectations, not facts. Once the on-chain data was flagged by Arkham, everyone saw "government address moving to Coinbase," and shorts immediately had a reason to open positions. It’s the same this time; one of the official reasons given for the October 6-7 drop explicitly stated "Bitcoin moved from government wallets to exchanges." See, the news itself can cause a dump without waiting for actual selling. $BTC On October 6, Trump previewed on Truth Social that he would make a "major statement" on "superintelligence" that afternoon (originally posted on his account, reprinted by Jinse Finance, CoinDesk, and multiple media outlets, Grade A factual). The key points of the rumored executive order draft (federal agencies to submit AI infrastructure plans within 180 days, FERC to accelerate grid connection approvals, etc.) have so far only been disclosed by a single policy media outlet, unconfirmed, for sentiment reference only (Grade B). Additionally, on October 4, Musk posted on X that SpaceXAI was renamed SpaceXSI, and SpaceX's secondary market valuation jumped over 7% in one day (Grade B, valuation based on secondary market platforms, unconfirmed, for sentiment reference only).Scumbag's live trading of Hynix
Scumbag saw Hynix return last night to near the middle axis of the upper half of the previous box range. The 4-hour K-line formed a bottom pattern here again, so Scumbag opened a position this morning.
The take-profit target is around the gap position of the 1-hour K-line above, near 1350.
Entry at 1295
Take profit at 1350, 1370
Stop loss at 1245