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[Old Leek Observation]
BlackRock has put three investment portfolios on-chain, but $ONDO has already fallen back from its peak.
Entry: $0.480–$0.500
Take Profit: $0.525 / $0.550 / $0.580 / $0.620 / $0.680
Stop Loss: $0.455
Ondo recently launched three on-chain investment portfolios, with strategies provided by BlackRock, covering high yield, diversified growth, and high growth respectively.
Users can now hold a single on-chain token to gain exposure to an entire portfolio, which can also be transferred on-chain and integrated into DeFi.
This approach actually goes beyond simply putting RWA government bonds on-chain:
Previously, it was about putting a single asset on-chain; now it’s about putting the "investment portfolio" itself on-chain.
ONDO surged close to $0.59 after September 24 but has now returned to about $0.49.
If RWA continues to be the market’s main theme, what’s more worth watching for ONDO here is the capital support after the pullback, rather than chasing the initial wave.
Watch for $0.50 to hold again before considering further upside.Just opened and saw the market pulling up, the AI sector is really fierce today. NEAR was so tempting that I immediately went long; the stop loss was originally set at $4.7, but within a minute the wick hit 4.68 and stopped out, which is good to lose less and avoid being deeply trapped. The dip was too harsh, who knew it would surge nearly five points the next day, catching the main upward wave, I barely had time to regret it. This kind of stock is just made to punish impulsiveness. What happened to cause the rise? I only saw some news snippets about the AI sector warming up, didn’t look closely, probably funds came in too. The market is really tough, only I am suffering. #AI板块回暖？ $NEAR #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $BTC has been consolidating for a week, here’s the distribution on the liquidation map!
The bears are really aggressive; as soon as the price rises a bit, they rush in! Are they really that bearish on Bitcoin?
Look! If the price reaches 86500, 1.6 billion worth of short positions will be liquidated.
That means the price only needs to rise another 1000! This provides such huge liquidity, and as usual, the chance of an upward move is very high.
I have already placed a take-profit order for my long position at 86543 in advance.
I’m not expecting it to go much higher because I’ve analyzed it for a long time.
I reviewed history, analyzed current indicators, the open interest of profit-taking positions, and the cost basis of the trapped positions above.
I believe it won’t break 89000 in the short term.
So there’s no need for me to gamble on it going much higher for less than a 3% gain! What’s in the pocket is what’s yours.
Even if my analysis is wrong, I accept it!
The above is my personal opinion for reference only! 最脆弱的一环其实是情绪，不是价格。 ETH 真跌破 2500 会先洗掉谁？ 昨天以太从 2750 滑落一百点，看着不夸张，但那种来回拉扯最磨人。我盯盘时最大的感受是，这次不像单纯回调，更像杠杆在悄悄换手。衍生品视角下，价格只是结果，持仓和资金费率才是情绪的温度计。每次这种反复僵持，多头不愿认输、空头也不敢重仓，最后往往不是被方向打败，而是被时间耗到被迫平仓。 偏多的逻辑也还在。非农只增 2.9 万、失业率升到 4.2%，理论上压住加息预期，对风险资产是缓一口气的；只要 BTC 稳住，ETH 在 2500 上方重新凝聚买盘，山寨的情绪就有机会跟着修复。问题是，ETF 现货同步转为流出，说明边际买盘在退，热度降温时，反弹更容易被卖盘接走。 我自己的判断偏谨慎。明天开盘到下周，大概率还是震荡偏弱，2500 是个情绪分水岭，跌破会触发一轮挤压，守住则可能只是震荡降风险的过程。真正要防的，是大家只盯着点位，却忽略持仓还在高位、费率一旦转向，脆弱点会先炸在情绪上。美伊局势和 G7 储备释放这类消息，也会放大短线波动。 结论：情绪没修复前，反弹都先当减压，不当反转。 以上仅为个人盘面观察，不构成任何Checked BTC perpetual contracts at 2:30: spot around 84955, contracts at 84914, funding rate slightly positive at 0.003%, nominal open interest still at 2.42 billion. Long-short account ratio is 1.31, leaning bullish; compared to the 0:00 open at 84864, slightly closed in the green, daily high at 85078, low at 84550.
Funding rate just turned slightly positive, open interest has not dissipated, liquidation volume in recent hours is very low. Short-term watch to see if it can break the daily high of 85078 to gain buying support; if it falls below 84550, do not chase the rise.
$ETH is oscillating near 2693, with a similar rhythm.
$BTC $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
This does not constitute investment advice, the market has risks, please be cautious when entering.847,666 BTC, held by one person.
Outsiders might not get it, so let me put it this way: this number is more than the treasury of many countries.
Saylor posted again, "More orange than ever," with a purchase record image. The usual routine, the market immediately understands, he's buying again.
But what really caught my eye was the cost, averaging 75,400. The current total value is 72.29 billion.
Before, when he bought coins, people laughed and said he was crazy. Now, when he posts, a bunch of people start guessing how much he bought this time.
From being mocked to being closely watched, that change is quite interesting.
But honestly, whether he buys or not, and whether the short-term price rises, are actually two different things.
Do you think the market will buy into this this time?
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $BTC This week's highlight: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will successively release the minutes of their October meetings.
Federal Reserve side: The market has priced in rate cuts; the key focus of the minutes is on the "subsequent pace"—whether it will be continuous easing or a wait-and-see approach. A dovish tilt → risk assets continue to live, catching up; a hawkish tilt → expectations retract, crypto follows US stocks in pulling back.
ECB side: Eurozone growth is weak, inflation is falling; if the minutes signal "further easing," the dollar will come under pressure, liquidity expectations will ease, which is indirectly positive for crypto.
Conclusion: The two sets of minutes are "liquidity weather vanes," not single-day explosive events
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 AVAX 10.98｜LINK 14.08｜NEAR 4.88｜SUI 1.18｜HBAR 0.10
All five mid-caps are fluctuating together, with NEAR rising the most sharply, nearly 5% in one day; AVAX is still grinding below water, and LINK is holding strong. The overall trend in the past few days has been weak, more like profit-taking rather than a crash. AVAX holds at 10.5, targeting 11.5; LINK at 14, if not broken, targets 15; NEAR 4.7 is the watershed; if SUI can't hold 1.15, it will return to 1.1; HBAR 0.098 is the lifeline. Roles: AVAX defines strength, LINK defines oracle, NEAR defines resilience, SUI watches Move, HBAR watches enterprise chains. If BTC rebounds to 85K tonight, the mid-caps will all breathe a sigh of relief. $AVAX $LINK #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 The most feared thing in the emergency room at 3 a.m. is not a heart attack, but postoperative patients pulling out their own drainage tubes—$VINE is currently in this state.
A 7.02% increase over 24 hours, short-term RSI surged to 70.6. This is not a strong cardiac output; it is compensatory tachycardia caused by sympathetic nervous system overexcitation. The true myocardial contractility is reflected by the long-term RSI—47.7, neutral, showing no improvement. In other words, this rise is blood pressure supported by peripheral vasoconstriction; the heart itself has not strengthened.
The Bollinger Bands are even more straightforward: the short-term price position is 112%, with the price piercing the upper band by 0.8%, indicating a valvular regurgitation-type overflow; while the mid-term position is only 62%, still 4.8% below the upper band. The conflicting readings from these two monitors indicate localized electrical activity disorder, not sinus rhythm. The 1-hour RSI standing at 64 triggers a sell signal, equivalent to a premature ventricular contraction appearing on the ECG—single occurrences can be observed, but continuous appearances are a precursor to ventricular tachycardia.
My judgment: this is not an emergency requiring open-chest surgery, but it definitely requires immediate position reduction and load decrease, preparing for extracorporeal circulation. The price still has an 8.1% buffer before the lower Bollinger Band, indicating the real bleeding points are at the 9.2% and 7.6% levels below, which correspond to two clear hemostatic clamp positions.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.01 (current price +1.0%)
Take Profit 1: $0.01 (-9.2%)
Take Profit 2: $0.01 (-7.6%)
Stop Loss: $0.01 (+11.5%)
This stop loss at +11.5% is equivalent to leaving a safety margin for an aortic dissection—exceeding this means I misjudged; it’s not arrhythmia but structural rupture, and surgery must be immediately terminated. The two take profit points correspond to the 9.2% and 7.6% downward paths, representing the sequence of closing the chest first, then withdrawing extracorporeal circulation, which must not be reversed.
The core conclusion is simple: a short-term position at 112% combined with a long-term RSI of only 47.7 is a typical hemodynamic illusion; the heart has not strengthened, it is just being supported by vasoactive drugs. What needs to be done now is volume reduction, not blood transfusion. Only 3 days into the month, the ETH unlocking queue has surged 392%, that's intense.
The amount waiting to be unlocked has nearly quintupled, small retail investors can't match this scale, it's obvious that whales are liquidating in bulk. There's a queue period for unlocking, these coins haven't been received yet, so the selling pressure is like holding back a big move.
The real test will be the day they start flowing into exchanges one after another, short-term longs should be cautious.
$ETH Known whale "Corus" has spent $200K accumulating 7.14M $EDEL.
The trader has made an incredible profit of $34.95M on #Hyperliquid and still holds 137,096 $HYPE ($12.27M).
And $EDEL has surged 750% over the past 2 months.On October 2, 2026, South Korea's three major exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone) officially lifted the trading warning label on $SAND, fully restoring deposits and withdrawals. This directly cleared the regulatory haze since the cross-chain bridge incident in August. Repressed Korean funds poured in wildly, combined with a technical breakout above the key resistance at $0.065, SAND surged over 60% in a single day. The market shorts were caught off guard, triggering a severe short squeeze.
Following the trend, I went long on the SANDUSDT perpetual contract on OKX. Opened a position at an average price of 0.07389 with 50x leverage, currently holding, with the mark price rising to 0.07579, floating profit at 128.56%.
The lifting of the warning ignited the bulls. But 50x leverage has an extremely low tolerance for error; even a slight reverse spike can lead to liquidation. Avoid blindly chasing highs and pay attention to risk control. $XRP $NEAR #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 In the endgame of close combat, the most dangerous piece is never the opponent's queen, but the false belief that you still have the initiative.
In the current $UMA game, White has just made a seemingly strong pawn push — a 1.96% increase in 24 hours, as slight as an inconsequential flank advance in the opening phase. But the real threat lies in the piece structure: the short-term RSI has climbed to 68.0, approaching the overbought threshold, while the long-term RSI remains stuck at a neutral 45.8. This divergence between short and long cycles is like a lone elephant deep in enemy territory—looking imposing but actually cut off from reinforcements.
More critically, the Bollinger Bands coordinates reveal the risk. In the short-term channel, the price has reached 118% of the range, 0.3% above the upper band — this is not strength, but reckless overextension. Any grandmaster seeing their pawn chain stretched like this would first think to adjust, not to press forward. The mid-term channel is only at 80%, but the space between upper and lower bands is compressed to just 3.9%, like a closed elephant's eye, leaving very limited room for maneuver.
So the current signal is clear: SELL. This is not defense, but a proactive sacrifice to lure the opponent. The market tempts you with a small bullish candle close to 2%, but the real short position should be set at a higher level — $0.38, about 3.2% above the current price. That is precisely the exhaustion point after repeated tests of the short-term upper band.
My endgame calculation is as follows:
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.38 (current price +3.2%)
Take Profit 1: 0.35 (-3.0%)
Take Profit 2: 0.34 (-5.4%)
Stop Loss: 0.42 (+15.2%)
Note the risk-reward structure of this game: the first target is only 7.9% downward from entry, the second target 10.5%, while the stop loss at 0.42 means that if breached, you must endure a counterattack exceeding 15% from entry — this defensive line is as wide as an intentionally abandoned open file. Why? Because grandmasters never place stop losses at tactical points, but at strategic failure points. Above 0.42, the entire short structure is truly broken.
Now, $UMA holders face the same situation: do you continue to push forward, or recognize that this flank has no reinforcements? The short-term RSI reading of 68.0 does not lie, nor does the -0.3% negative premium at the upper band. The decisive move in this game lies within this 3.2% bull trap zone. Make your move. #strategyplaybookA whale withdrew 14,000 ZEC, is this wave going to crush the shorts?
The whole network is bearish, but I opened a long at 1280. The reasons are solid, come argue if you disagree.
First, whales are frantically accumulating. On-chain data shows that a certain whale has withdrawn over 14,000 ZEC from Binance and Gate in one month, worth about $20 million, at an average price of $1140. Even more aggressive, another whale's main wallet holds over $66 million, and during the pullback, not only did it not flee, it added positions. Smart money didn't leave above 1400, but is buying at 1280—are you following or not?
Second, Grayscale's valuation framework is far from the ceiling. ZEC's market cap as a percentage of BTC rose from 0.1% a year ago to 1.5%, and Grayscale research head Zach Pandl clearly stated this "reflects a low starting point and a huge addressable market, not a valuation bubble." In the last cycle, XRP, LTC, and DASH all exceeded 3% of BTC's market cap, so ZEC still has a lot of room to grow.
Third, the ecosystem is rapidly landing. THORChain's ZEC liquidity pool just went live, and native cross-chain trading is about to open. The NU7 upgrade will shorten block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while keeping the halving mechanism unchanged. Fundamentals are improving, this is not just a pure sentiment-driven pump.
Technical aspect: The 1280-1300 range and the 4-hour EMA200 support at 1228 form a strong resonance zone, with multiple retests without breaking. $ZEC $ZEC $SOL Family, I really woke up to the sky falling. ETC slipped nearly two points during the day, grinding down from 8.82 to just under 8.8. I thought it was about time and opened a short position, but ended up closing it out impulsively; today it dropped further, and slapping my thigh won’t help. At this level, I wanted to bottom-fish but held back seeing how the overall market looks terrible. Old chains collapse suddenly and feel unsafe, liquidity is far worse than new coins, and the order book is so thin it breaks with a touch. This market either kills the timid or supports the bold; ETC’s trading volume this round is sluggish compared to anyone else, no one is really playing. Good morning, genius traders, today is another day of being schooled by the market. $ETC #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BAND Damn it! BAND's pump-and-dump manipulators really know how to play, hovering around 0.22 for three days, then just now a sharp drop straight down to 0.218, the group chat was full of wails. Experienced traders immediately recognized this as a blatant shakeout. 🔥
On-chain data doesn't lie; the big players are dumping real money down and quickly buying back, scheming something. I tentatively entered a position at 0.2273, set my stop loss at 0.215—if it breaks, I accept the loss; if not, I hold on.
This market can explode irrationally, so don't wait until it rockets to chase. Know your limits and manage your position size well.
👇👇👇The operational approach remains unchanged: on one side, mainstream leading assets; on the other, low-position established public chains. The barbell strategy is the most stable—don't put all your eggs in one basket. Spot: Hold HBAR. The on-chain real transaction count of Hedera's enterprise-grade public chain is still climbing, and institutional cooperation is visibly increasing. The backing by that tech giant is not empty; Contracts: Long HBAR, targeting the $0.11 level, with a stop loss set below $0.095. If it breaks, just exit—don't stubbornly hold. Previously tried a trade on SUI series, but data was poor so didn't add; the result was unexpected—it dragged on so long, minimizing losses is winning. The strategy is laid out here; everyone judge for themselves. $HBAR #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 AVAX is slightly under pressure today, retreating after an intraday rally, indicating there is still some selling pressure above. Avalanche's long-term narrative remains strong, with subnets, institutional chains, RWA, and gaming ecosystems all being key market focus areas in the past. However, current capital is more selective, and only ecosystem data and actual business growth can support a sustained market trend. Recently, the market has been repeatedly pricing around stablecoins, institutional products, and regulatory news, and AVAX has not yet formed a particularly strong independent driver. If the overall L1 sector warms up later, AVAX has high elasticity; but with insufficient volume, the trend will most likely continue to be characterized by repeated fluctuations. $AVAXWhales: stocking up.
Retail investors: playing dead.
ETF: stalling.
In 10 days, whales swallowed 41,025 BTC.
Total holdings 13.64 million BTC, accounting for 67.93% of circulation.
Six-week high.
Small wallets? Flat.
Translation:
Not buying.
Not watching.
Not my business.
ETF net inflow 82.9 million.
Previous week 2.39 billion.
Shrunk by 97%.
Stalling faster than my ex.
Whales are scooping up.
ETF is down.
Retail investors are lying flat.
Chips are moving from weak hands to strong hands.
March 2020.
November 2022.
January 2023.
After that? Check yourself.
Anyway, it’s not about giving out red envelopes.
BTC touched 87,000 three times and got smashed.
But the lows are rising.
83,000 is the bottom line.
Whale cost zone.
Retail investors not buying, ETF slowing down.
Shows no FOMO yet.
The real top is when security guards ask how to buy coins.
Now? Security guards are binge-watching short dramas.
Below 85,000, hold spot.
No leverage.
No chasing highs.
Just venting, don’t follow trades.
$BTC $ETH
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 At the end of September, on-chain monitoring detected that a long-dormant wallet (0x48E9) associated with the $QUANT founder suddenly transferred 25,776 QNT (worth approximately $6.97 million) after 7 years of silence, and the address still holds 600,000 QNT. This massive whale movement completely triggered market panic in early October. Coupled with QNT's sharp surge in September, the RSI indicator was severely overbought (once exceeding 81), signaling an urgent need for a deep technical correction. Spot selling pressure intensified, and long stop-loss orders in the futures market were densely triggered.
Seizing the opportunity of the whale's sell-off, I shorted the QUANTUSDT perpetual contract on OKX. Entered at an average price of 262.8 with 50x leverage, marked price at 254.9, floating profit of 150.30%.
Chip loosening triggered panic. However, chasing shorts after a crash carries high risk; 50x leverage is prone to liquidation, so maintain a stable mindset. $HYPE $XRP #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 A common cross-coin signal: AI and decentralized computing narratives are quietly flowing back. Today, these types of assets are clearly outperforming the broader market, with capital selecting public chains that have real computing power. On the ICP side, the Internet Computer concept surged over two points to $3.339, but overall volume has not fully caught up yet; the price is still in the recovery zone. The unpriced catalyst is the developer return driven by on-chain smart contracts and edge computing implementation. AVAX similarly is expanding subnets, but the distribution of chips raises doubts about sustainability. SUI relies on the Move ecosystem, with sentiment outweighing fundamentals. Before the direction becomes clear, remain patient. $ICP $AVAX $SUI #标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 SUI showed a slight strengthening today, with little intraday volatility but closing near the high, indicating that funds are gradually accumulating at lower levels. The highlights of Sui remain its high-performance public chain, blockchain gaming, DeFi, and consumer-grade application ecosystem, making it an L1 asset that is easily rediscovered when market risk appetite improves. Currently, the broader market has not experienced a widespread rally, and SUI's ability to maintain relative stability itself indicates that selling pressure is not heavy. However, this type of new public chain asset is quite sensitive to market sentiment. If on-chain activity, ecosystem projects, and liquidity do not improve in sync later, it will be difficult for it to sustain an independent trend solely based on market rebounds. $SUIFor those teachers who still want to bottom-fish or go long during this wave of volatility, pay attention. On the DOT side, Polkadot 2.0 and agile core narratives are still ongoing, and the underlying cross-chain interoperability is quietly iterating. Developers have never truly left. The current price is $1.193. Whether the funds recognize it depends on what happens next. If the daily chart holds above 1.22, then a pullback is a buying opportunity, and you can follow the trend with a target of 1.3; if it breaks below 1.15, then it will most likely pull back to 1.1 before stabilizing, which will be the real opportunity—don’t get ahead of yourself. How to choose is up to you, teachers; don’t rush blindly. No hurry, just watch. $DOT #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 Rumors of OpenPayd IPO, $ENA price only down -0.42%
$ENA currently at 0.238, 24h +1.8%. The increase looks mild, but I'm directly bullish — rumors not yet priced in by the market mean room to grow.
OpenPayd rumored to IPO by year-end with a valuation of $1.1 billion, after the $ENA event price only moved from 0.239 to 0.238, down -0.42%. The new story of stablecoin payment infrastructure, but the market just isn't buying it.Recently, there's an interesting phenomenon: everyone is talking about who is leading the trend between BTC and SOL, but no one mentions TRX, this silent stablecoin channel. The mainstream view is that it has no story and can't rise, but in reality, the on-chain stablecoin settlement volume it supports has been steadily increasing, and the real use of payments and transfers has never stopped. The ecosystem's ability to generate value is seriously underestimated. Funds are just temporarily not focusing on it, but once the sector rotates and ignites, this low-volatility base will actually be more resilient. The assets that don't fall are what retail investors should really pay attention to. Use your own judgment and think it through yourself; don't get carried away by emotions. This round, TRX is the one to really watch. $TRX #美日确认联合购汇 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 POL's trend is slightly oscillating upward, with overall strength not particularly aggressive, but support at low levels remains. Polygon's advantage lies in Ethereum scaling, enterprise cooperation, and a solid foundation in multi-chain layout. However, the market currently places more emphasis on actual on-chain data and the implementation efficiency of the ZK route. Recently, the market has not formed a one-sided trend; assets like POL, which have a more infrastructure-oriented nature, usually do not explode first. But when funds flow back from pure meme to mainstream ecosystem themes, they tend to regain attention. Going forward, the focus will be on observing ecosystem activity, progress related to stablecoins and RWA, and whether volume can support price strength. $POLThe listing date for A÷ is basically set.
Bloomberg reports that Anthropic @AnthropicAI will hold an investor day on October 14, a roadshow during the week of November 9, aiming to list before Thanksgiving, with a valuation range of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion.
Despite the complaints, the first IPO in history still needs to be participated in; it shouldn't open below the issue price.
Let's see if there are channels in the crypto circle/Australia, hopefully not like last time with $SPCX, where the whole network got stood up.🤣NIGHT is experiencing relatively large fluctuations today, first dipping then recovering during the session. The market pricing for this new theme has not yet fully stabilized. Midnight focuses on privacy and compliance compatibility, backed by the Cardano ecosystem, with a distinctive narrative. However, new tokens are usually most affected by circulation structure, airdrop expectations, and short-term holdings. Current trading remains active, indicating ongoing attention, but the divergence between bulls and bears is also quite evident. If ecosystem progress, developer participation, and practical application news continue to be released, market discussion may persist; if only sentiment-driven tug-of-war remains, the price is more likely to experience back-and-forth consolidation. $NIGHTOn Friday's BTC ETF data, before IBIT was announced, the overall preliminary statistics recorded a net inflow of about $31.7 million. After the IBIT data was released, the final net inflow was revised up to about $103 million, which is a decent performance.
On the market, frequent turnover occurred around 87,000, with selling pressure mainly coming from trapped positions from last November to this January, indicating that current confidence remains weak and there is a clear divergence between bulls and bears. However, many funds exiting the market may not be a long-term bearish stance but rather a conventional response to macro headwinds by reducing positions first and then replenishing later.
In the short term, if BTC can oscillate repeatedly between 84,000 and 87,000, gradually digesting the overhead supply, and 84,000 holds, after short-term positions are cleared and the macro environment warms up, the probability of an upward breakout will increase. For now, patience is still needed to observe whether it will directly hit new highs or first pull back to gather momentum. $ETH $ZEC $BTC
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 PUMP's performance today is clearly stronger than many altcoins, with increased intraday volatility and relatively active trading, indicating that short-term funds are still active in the meme and token issuance platform sectors. The logic behind PUMP is straightforward: when market risk appetite rises, on-chain speculative enthusiasm, the number of token issuances, and expected transaction fees all get amplified; but when sentiment weakens, the speed of fund withdrawal is often the fastest. Currently, it looks more like a rebound driven by hype rather than a trend gradually emerging purely based on fundamentals. Going forward, the focus will be on whether trading volume and on-chain activity can synchronize; otherwise, high volatility may recur. $PUMPThis wave of XLM seems more like a mild recovery following the overall market, with little intraday volatility, but trading volume is not quiet, indicating that funds are still watching at the low level. The core highlights of Stellar have always been cross-border payments, stablecoin settlement, and real-world financial integration, making it a well-established public chain with practical applications, though its narrative is not the hottest. The current market is more sensitive to news about regulation and institutional products. If mainstream coin sentiment warms up, XLM has a chance to gain catch-up attention; however, in the short term, watch whether the volume can continue to expand, otherwise it may easily turn into a sideways consolidation after a spike. $XLMEthereum Glamsterdam 正进入关键测试阶段，Sepolia 公共测试预计将在 10月6日进行，而主网升级目前仍预计落在 2026年Q4，具体日期尚未确定。 这次升级重点包括 ePBS（提议者-构建者分离） 和 Block-Level Access Lists（区块级访问列表），目标是为并行处理、更高吞吐量以及未来扩大区块容量铺路。部分测试已经朝着 2亿 Gas 的容量目标推进。 如果后续测试顺利、开发者持续推进，ETH 在Q4的基本面叙事可能进一步增强。 技术升级 + 扩容预期 + 生态需求，或许比短期K线波动更值得关注。 ⚙️🔥 $ETH #Ethereum #Glamsterdam #ETHUpgrade #EthereumQ4 NFA，注意风险，勿盲目追涨。Clocks can return to zero, but it will never be yesterday again
The clock hands can turn back to the original mark, but the time that has passed cannot be repeated
The trading market is the same, K-lines cycle repeatedly, and prices may return to previous points, with tempting green candles appearing again
But the same price level is no longer the same wave of the market. Market funds and overall sentiment have changed, even if the coin price replicates the past
Your position, profit and loss situation, and mindset after experience cannot return to the past
Some always hope the market will come back so they can turn things around, just thinking the chart will return to the old position, but the original opportunity and mindset will not reappear
We can review historical K-lines, but we cannot redo yesterday's trade
Current positions of Xiaoma:
ZEC long: opened at 1425.76, currently 1331.42, unrealized loss -143.39 USDT.
SOXL short: average open price 153.19, current price 163.94, -290.03 USDT, loss 70.11%, short position under continuous pressure
For these two positions, Xiaoma is heartbroken and has only one thought now: let me get out of the loss quickly, haven't made money for a long time, originally just wanted to open a small position to take a small bite and run, but one kept falling and the other kept rising. Wow
The above is just a reflection and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC $ZEC $SOXL
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 Bro, I had the chance to buy $PUMP at 0.0018, but I didn’t. Instead, I opened a short around 0.0025. That “little pill” $PUMP ’s independent rally gave me a serious lesson. Here’s why this token has been so strong: 1. Fundamentals are stronger than I expected — real revenue + deflation While many Memecoins still depend almost entirely on hype, PUMP is generating real revenue and using part of it for buybacks and burns. Daily revenue has reportedly exceeded $2M, with around 50% of net income alloAfter the non-farm payroll shock, ETH is stuck at the critical 2700 level! 73% of retail investors are chasing longs, but smart money is quietly hedging?
Why can't the positive news drive the price up?
On-chain data reveals the painful truth: the retail long-short ratio is as high as 2.76, with 73.4% of retail investors chasing longs; however, smart money's long ratio is only 60.8%, and they are performing hedging operations. Chips are shifting from retail hands to institutions; the more retail chases, the less the main players push up.
Capital flows are also diverging:
Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $118 million, interrupting the inflow trend in September. But don't panic, September still had a net inflow of $832 million, staking ratio has exceeded 35%, and the circulating supply is increasingly locked up.
Key levels:
Resistance above: 2706-2711 → 2750-2778 → 2825. Support below: 2684 → 2645-2660 → 2600. Only if the daily close stands above 2711 and holds can we look to 2750; if it breaks below 2684, this rally fails, and the focus shifts to 2645.$ETH $BTC In October 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, amplifying uncertainties in crude oil supply. "Mubarak," as an Arabic blessing, naturally aligns with Middle Eastern cultural narratives, making it an excellent vehicle for speculative capital. Coupled with $BTC reaching an eight-month high, market risk appetite has spread to highly volatile Meme assets. The BNB Chain ecosystem shows a significant capital siphoning effect, with $MUBARAK surging over 70% in a single day and trading volume soaring to several times its market cap, bringing attention fully back.
Following the trend, going long on MUBARAKUSDT perpetual contracts on OKX. Opened position at an average price of 0.063765 with 20x leverage, currently holding as the mark price rises to 0.068899, floating profit at 161.02%.
Geopolitical narratives provide bottom-line support. However, the 20x leverage has very low tolerance for errors; even a slight adverse spike risks liquidation. Avoid blindly chasing highs and pay close attention to risk control. $BNB Citi raised BTC's 12-month target price to 113,000. Do you still think $BTC is expensive now?
The Clear Act didn't advance, yet Citi sees BTC at 113,000. Normally, with regulatory bills stalled, institutions should be more cautious. But Citi raised BTC's 12-month target price from 82,000 to 113,000 USD, and $ETH from 2240 to 3028 USD.
One path is blocked, but another is starting to move:Data shows that the group of people who rushed to buy Bitcoin near the peak of the 2025 bull market are now quietly "selling off".
Because the current price of Bitcoin has fallen below their cost basis.
The group holding Bitcoin for 6 - 12 months has an average cost basis around $89,000, currently at an unrealized loss.
The group holding Bitcoin for 1 - 2 years has an average cost basis around $97,000, also currently at an unrealized loss.10.4 Sunday $XAU
Several scenarios for Monday
1.
If the market starts to drop in the morning
Drops to 4117~4110, if it holds, consider going long
I think this is a good price to go long
If the market breaks down, I will wait for the lower levels at 4016, 3955
2.
After the market oscillates around 4140 and breaks out of the range
Consider going long once at 4140
If the market pulls back and holds at 4153
I will consider going long
3.
If the market reaches 4182~4197
I will consider going short
I have plans no matter how it moves, I will wait until Monday, 8 to 9 am
Wait to digest the fundamentals before making a move
There are no decisive fundamental news next week
Just watch what Trump and Iran say
If there is sudden news that talks are done and oil prices crash
4225, 4228 are currently strong resistances
If broken, definitely go long
After breaking, watch 4316, 4406
Fundamentally, you don’t need to put in too much effort
Trying hard to figure out some logic or another
All need to be combined with technical price judgment
Gold is a very good asset
Studying for a year basically lets you understand fundamentals combined with price
You basically understand this asset
As long as you don’t do anything stupid later, you can really make money
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $AXS unrealized profit adding to position is awesome, previously I reduced position on unrealized profit and added to losing positions which blew up many times, this time I want to go against human natureThree coins simultaneously enter the convergence zone, wait for a daily candle to determine the direction in the next 48 hours.
$BTC watches 84433, holding above looks to 85513→88000, breaking below looks to 82800—80811.
$ETH watches 2680, holding looks to 2754→2830, losing 2628 looks to 2576.
$SOL watches 116.51, breaking through 124.47 looks to 130, breaking below looks to 113.68.
No guessing direction, wait for the daily candle close. Three key levels decide the next step.
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #BessentTreasuryYields How MEV Income Will Change Validator Concentration
Validator income comes not only from protocol rewards and user tips, but some blocks include significantly higher MEV. Large staking services can access more builders, optimize relay connections, and smooth out occasional high yields, while smaller independent validators are more likely to miss opportunities. Over the long term, even if base rewards are the same, infrastructure differences can create an accumulative profit advantage.
This profit advantage will attract more staking to large platforms, whose scale further improves connections and bargaining power, forming a feedback loop. The issue is not specialization itself, but whether the network gradually relies on a few operators. $ETH's security comes from many independent participants jointly validating the rules; if high yields are only open to a few nodes, the nominal increase in validator numbers may mask actual control concentration.
Improvements include opening the builder market, lowering access barriers, making it easier to switch relays and clients, and monitoring operating entities rather than just validator keys. When holders look at staking returns, they should also ask whether the income comes from the protocol, transaction tips, or MEV. A few extra percentage points at the cost of increased censorship and single points of failure do not necessarily enhance Ethereum's long-term value.[Ergou's Market Watch: Earnings Report Quiet Period, Don't Be Fooled by Index Rebalancing!]
Brothers, next week the US stock market enters the Q3 earnings report quiet period. Ergou translates it plainly: without a main driving force, the market will turn into a meat grinder of macro sentiment and capital battles!
1. Core Vulnerability: Long-term US Treasury Yields
Historically, the US stock market tends to be strong in Q4, but this year the premise is that long-term rates no longer suppress valuations. Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield is at a 20-year high, and high-valuation growth stocks are extremely sensitive to discount rates. If long-term rates don't fall, this is a huge burden weighing on risk assets, and the crypto market is also under pressure.
2. Local Scenario: Index Rebalancing Anomalies
Next week, MRNA will join the Nasdaq 100, and VLYR and TWLO will join the S&P 500. Passive funds' rebalancing needs will trigger price movements in these stocks. But this is a localized event and unlikely to drive a broad market rally.
3. Industry Hidden Risks: Energy Costs and Supply Patterns
Diesel prices hit record highs, gasoline approaches $4.5, and rising energy costs are eroding corporate profit margins (Oracle has started to cover energy price increases for its clients). Additionally, Toshiba competition concerns are impacting the storage sector (WDC, STX under pressure). Beyond the AI narrative, supply patterns can instantly change profit expectations.
Ergou's heartfelt advice:
No big drama before earnings season; the high interest rate environment combined with rising energy costs makes the market extremely fragile. Don't bet on a one-sided big move; avoid sectors hit by cost pressures and worsening competition.
Trading Strategy:
Keep a close eye on long-term interest rate trends and wait for clear guidance from earnings season before taking action.VanEck: Bitcoin is taking gold's "job," and a 59% market share is just the beginning
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, stated that Bitcoin may continue to expand its share of global asset allocation in the future. Quantum computing is a long-term risk but not enough to justify selling.
First, let's look at market share. Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen from 40.83% in 2022 to about 59%, with a market cap of $1.7 trillion, as funds continue to concentrate at the top.
Institutional funds are the core driver. In September, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $2.65 billion. According to Bitwise research on 15 large institutions—including pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds—none reduced their Bitcoin holdings during the pullback from $125,000 to about $60,000; some even increased their positions against the trend. Wells Fargo allocates 2% to 3%, while Fidelity and BlackRock recommend 2% to 8%. Some sovereign wealth funds are selling gold to buy Bitcoin, viewing it as a gold-like hedge against currency devaluation.
The user side is also changing. River Financial research shows that 49.6 million American adults hold Bitcoin, accounting for 18.6%, surpassing the 28.8 million (10.8%) who hold gold.
The expansion of Bitcoin's share is essentially not a price issue but a shift in its role from a marginal speculative asset to an institutional allocation tool. #VanEck: Bitcoin may continue to expand market share $BTC Short Sellers' Graveyard: You think it's the top, but it's just touching up its makeup
$PUMP has taught the market another lesson. Using 💊 as its icon, riding on the Trump concept, its price action is stronger than any rationale. Everyone says it's peaked, it just pulls back a bit, then turns around to hit new highs. Bulls don't even bother changing excuses: the project team is buying back. Just these four words, and shorts are rushing to top up their margin overnight.
What's even more absurd is that last round's "completely useless" meme coin—no one dared chase at 0.02, many shorted at 0.15, but it surged all the way to 0.35 and still hasn't seen a proper dump. You think you're going against the trend, but actually, you're fueling the whales.
The most heartbreaking is Dogecoin. Logically, the crazier the meme, the more DOGE should benefit. But in reality, while others are partying hard, it plays dead. Many hoarded a bunch at 0.12–0.13, only to see not a catch-up rally but new projects flying by one after another.
This market never makes sense, especially not on news. Buybacks, partnerships, pump calls—they can all be tools to pump or dump. The hardest thing for retail investors isn't picking the wrong direction, but knowing the logic is right yet being unable to withstand the capital and emotions.
Don't short lightly, don't chase casually. What you think is the top might just be the starting line someone else drew for you. $GRASS This drop is all about patience! Recently, the AI sector cooled down, and GRASS surged too much earlier, with long positions too crowded.
I opened a 20x short at 0.7695 following the trend, and closed at the current price of 0.7276, making a huge 108% profit!
This is a typical long squeeze, and a pullback is imminent.
The short-term drop is significant, and a rebound could happen anytime afterward. Don't be greedy; protect your profits. $BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Core Drivers: Macro Positives Hedged by Geopolitical Black Swan
① Comprehensive Weakness in Nonfarm Data, Collapse of Rate Hike Bets (Biggest Macro Positive)
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations; unemployment rate rose to 4.2%; average hourly earnings month-over-month only +0.1%; July and August combined revised down by 60,000. After data release, the probability of a rate hike in October plummeted from 64% to 15%-17%, briefly pushing Bitcoin up to $87,220.
② Iranian Military Actions in the Strait of Hormuz (Biggest Geopolitical Negative)
Iran's military actions in the Strait of Hormuz quickly reversed market sentiment. At least 16 attacks on vessels occurred in the strait in September, with 6 incidents this week alone. Brent crude briefly broke above $100/barrel, while Bitcoin sharply retreated from its high, with a single-day market cap evaporation of about $50 billion.
③ BlackRock IBIT Continues Large Allocations
BlackRock IBIT withdrew 2,309.6 BTC (approximately $196.6 million) from Coinbase Prime; cumulative purchases over the past month have risen to $1.57 billion, indicating institutions are still continuously allocating. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
A report saying demand is cooling, with the thickest number on the same page being the buyer's paper profit.
▪️ Increment in speculative futures demand: 164,000 on 9/14 → 16,000 on 9/29, a 90% drop in 15 days
▪️ Apparent spot demand: decreased by 170,000 in 30 days, about 0.85% of circulating supply🚨 HYPE HAS A SUPPLY BATTLE ON ITS HANDS
$HYPE is back around the $90 zone.
But the interesting part isn't just the chart 👀
🟢 Treasury bought **1.9M HYPE (~$167M)**
🟢 Buyback activity continues
🟠 **3.75M HYPE** is being prepared for an OTC institutional sale
Demand is rising — but traders are watching supply closely.
**$90 hold → $95–$98 comes back into focus.**
这不是单纯看涨，关键是看资金流和供应。
**HYPE: $100 next, or another rejection? 👇**
#HYPE #Hyperliquid #Crypto #Altcoins #OKX $CRO CRO is the "smartest" coin in the exchange.
In 2021, it tricked you with "permanently burning 70 billion," and in 2025, it buried you with "re-minting 70 billion." Now it has a "monthly buyback and burn" — don’t be moved, it’s just moving the coins printed back then from one hand to the other, buying back just a little bit every month.
Its trump card is the Crypto.com exchange; as long as it doesn’t collapse, it won’t die. But with only 50% circulation, two whole generations of retail investors are trapped on it from bull markets. This kind of coin, when it rises, it’s all a rebound, not a reversal.