The G7 has emptied its coffers, releasing 100 million barrels of strategic reserves.
Sounds like a lot, right?
Let's do the math: 100 million barrels ÷ 31 million barrels/day ≈ 3.2 days.
The OPEC+ seven countries maintain a daily production cap of 31 million barrels. The reserves the G7 scraped together only last the world three days.
Three days. Not even enough to cover a full trading week.
This is not a market rescue. This is a painkiller.
On the day the G7 announced the release, Brent crude briefly dropped $4, then quickly rebounded. On October 5, Brent fell from $102.53 to $100.22, a 2.25% drop. WTI fell below $90.
It dropped. But barely. Oil prices rose from $80 pre-war to above $100; a 2% drop isn’t even a "giveback."
The market is voting with its feet: the reserve release tactic doesn’t really work.
In March 2026, the IEA released 400 million barrels—four times this amount—the largest release in history.
What happened? After a brief dip, oil prices surged 7%, Brent returned above $100, with intraday swings close to 40%.
If 400 million barrels couldn’t suppress oil prices, why would 100 million?
Historically, no reserve release has ever successfully lowered oil prices driven by geopolitical conflicts. Not once.
The G7 chose to release diesel in the first 20 days, not crude oil.
Why? Because the real pain point isn’t crude oil shortage, it’s diesel shortage.
Crude oil can find alternative sources—Saudi Arabia is increasing production, Middle East exports are recovering. But diesel is different. Global refining capacity is highly concentrated; once the diesel supply chain breaks, it can’t be replaced in the short term.
The G7 prioritizing diesel release is basically saying: we know where the problem is, but we can only offer painkillers.
More fatal than reserve releases is the real production capacity of OPEC+.
OPEC+ seven countries’ paper quota is 31 million barrels/day. But actual production in August was about 25 million barrels/day—5 million barrels less than the quota.
This gap is equivalent to the entire production of Iraq.
Why can’t they produce it? The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked.
This waterway handles 20%-25% of global seaborne crude oil trade, with daily traffic of 20 million barrels. Since the war started, traffic has plummeted 90%-95%. About 10% of global crude production has been forced offline.
The quota is just on paper. If tankers can’t pass, it’s all empty talk.
Iran has clearly stated: the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until US sanctions are lifted. Iran proposed reopening the strait within 7 days in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. Trump refused.
Iran holds one-fifth of the world’s oil lifeline. The G7 only has 100 million barrels in reserves.
Whose hand is stronger? No need for me to say.
High oil prices → stubborn inflation → Fed can’t cut rates → tightening dollar liquidity → crypto under pressure.
August PCE has been above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months; energy prices are one of the core drivers of inflation.
But conversely—if oil prices fall short-term due to reserve releases and market sentiment improves, BTC might rebound first.
In September, BTC rose about 28%, once approaching $87,000, driven by spot funds; perpetual contract funding rate only 5.4%. This isn’t a leverage bubble; institutions are buying with real money. BTC is currently oscillating near $85,000, with the $82,500 support tested three times.
If oil prices ease, BTC will be the first to react.
8/ Conclusion.
Reserve releases are painkillers for the market.
But the wound at Hormuz requires surgery.
Painkillers can ease the patient’s pain but can’t stop the bleeding.
100 million barrels, 3.2 days. Buying time, not a solution.
As long as Hormuz remains closed, high oil prices are not a "risk," they are "reality."
$BTC$CL$BZ#中东能源航运风险升温，两大关键海峡受扰
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