毓鑫YuXin

1.1KFollowing

1.3Kfollowers

Feed

10.19 Morning Market Watch: BTC Returns to 82,000, Don't Rush to Get Overheated Today BTC has reclaimed 82,000, oil prices and US Treasury yields are also retreating, but don't rush to chase at today's open. Whether the daytime rebound can hold through the US stock market open tonight is the key to whether this wave can recover. Calendar Mysticism: Today is the Bingwu year, Wuxu month, Bingyin day (Lunar September 10). Bing fire sits on Yin wood, symbolizing "wood generates fire." The market looks like it wants to gather strength again, but whether it can hold depends on whether funds enter the market. Mysticism is just for fun; real trading depends on price and volume. I. Core Assets Watch 1. BTC: Can 82,000 hold? Current price: about 82,034 USD (up about 0.48% in 24h) Support: 81,500—82,000 | Strong support: 80,000—80,500 Resistance: 82,500—83,000 | Strong resistance: 84,000—84,500 Market logic: The weekend didn't push below 80,000, which is a breather. Now it's trying to reclaim 82,000. But 83,000 is pressing down. As long as 82,000 holds and 83,000 is broken through, it can target 84,000—84,500. If 83,000 is resisted and it falls below 81,000, watch out for another hit at 80,000. Until 83,000 is firmly held, this rebound should be seen as a weak recovery. 2. ETH: Still dragging behind Current price: about 2,417 USD (up about 0.45% in 24h, down 4.4% over 7 days) Support: 2,380—2,400 | Strong support: 2,320—2,350 Resistance: 2,450—2,480 | Strong resistance: 2,500—2,550 Market logic: Clearly weaker than BTC. First see if 2,400 can hold; only after reclaiming 2,480—2,500 can we think about 2,550. If 2,380 fails and can't be pulled back, look for support at 2,350—2,320. Ethereum can't break 2,500, indicating funds aren't flowing into high-elasticity altcoins; the altcoin catch-up rally dream is not on now. II. US Stocks and Macro: Tech Stocks Still in Danger Last Friday's US stocks performed poorly: S&P down 1.09%, Nasdaq down 2.15%, Nasdaq fell 4.5% for the week; selling pressure on tech stocks hasn't eased. S&P range: Support 7,600—7,650 | Resistance 7,700—7,750 (next level 7,800) Nasdaq range: Support 26,000—26,100 | Resistance 26,500—26,700 (next level 27,000) Although S&P and Nasdaq futures rebounded slightly this morning (0.5% and 0.8%), Japan and South Korea markets remain weak. Pre-market moves mean little; the real test is after US market open tonight. Tech stocks face crazy AI spending, high borrowing costs, and revaluation of cash flow and earnings expectations. This week's earnings reports and guidance will test risk appetite. Also, keep an eye on China's Q3 GDP, retail, and investment data, plus actual earnings performance of US stocks. Gold: Current price about 4,181 USD (up about 0.4%). Support 4,150—4,170, resistance 4,200—4,220. Falling US Treasury yields support gold, but if funds buy bonds due to economic pessimism, gold benefits while tech stocks and BTC may not. Oil: Brent 108.06 USD, WTI 100.70 USD, slightly down from highs but still high. Brent closely watches 105 (breaking down relieves pressure) and 110 (above which inflation alarms sound). US 10-year Treasury yield: around 5.06%. If yields fall and Nasdaq and BTC rise together, the rebound is reliable; if yields fall but tech stocks keep drifting down, don't blindly take it as good news. Today's Trading Focus BTC: watch 81,500 (defense) / 83,000 (attack) ETH: watch 2,400 (defense) / 2,500 (attack) Gold: watch 4,150 / 4,220 S&P: watch 7,600 / 7,750 Nasdaq: watch 26,000 / 26,500 Trading Strategy My own rhythm is simple: wait for BTC to firmly hold 82,000 and reclaim 83,000, ETH to climb above 2,500, and US stocks not to plunge intraday. Before these signals appear, don't randomly shift positions; otherwise, you might enjoy BTC rising during the day but see US stocks open at night and wipe out all gains. Bing fire sits on Yin wood, vitality exists, but don't rush to add fuel. Standing steadily is far more important than reaching highs. Opportunities come every day, but losing principal means losing everything. Purely personal market notes, not investment advice.

For this OKX Prophet S3, I've already submitted my earnings season assignments early: Tesla Yes, Netflix No. One main position, one small position to test the judgment, waiting for the earnings release for the market to grade. This time OKX brings earnings forecasts into the Planet, participate with free XP, and you can share your positions and discuss logic, which is more interesting than just shouting up or down in the comment section. Let me clarify the key points of the event first: The total prize pool for S3 is worth $250,000, with a separate $25,000 prize pool set for each of the four consecutive weeks of the earnings season. The event runs until 00:00 Beijing time on November 15. The first week of the current earnings season ends at 10:00 on October 22. Open the OKX App → Planet → Outcomes, enter the earnings season zone; earn points by clicking XP at the top right of the Planet or "Earn XP" in Outcomes. Eligible accounts are automatically enrolled; see the page for specific qualifications. How to get XP? I went through the tasks in the screenshots: ▫️ Daily reading of Planet content, following, liking, or sharing, and posting with position cards all have chances to earn XP. ▫️ Participate in earnings season topics with spot or futures position cards of the corresponding assets. After review, eligible creators can earn up to 30 XP daily. Note that ordinary position sharing and earnings season special tasks have different requirements. ▫️ Complete specified trades in the event to earn random XP, with extra rewards on the 3rd, 5th, and 7th consecutive trading days. Opening 5, 10, and 20 futures positions cumulatively rewards 10, 10, and 20 XP respectively; there is also an experience task on the page to open and close positions with at least 20x leverage to earn 20 XP. This is the event's points gameplay, do not replicate it in real money trading. ▫️ Valid invitations earn 300 XP per person, up to 5 people. Official rules require friends to complete specified registration, join the event, and meet first deposit conditions; just sending a link does not count as completion. ▫️ When XP is below 100, check the "Points Refuel Station." Besides point balance, account asset conditions must be met to claim a random daily supply once per day. Here is a key point: XP itself cannot be cashed out; the points earned do not equal actual profit. The leaderboard mainly looks at trading PnL or corresponding returns. The weekly earnings season leaderboard only counts profits and losses from specified earnings events. Final awards also require meeting ranking and qualification criteria. Now about my two positions. For Tesla, I hold 406.7 Yes shares. The position value in the screenshot is about 305.02 XP, with unrealized profit of 12.2 XP, about 4.16%; Netflix is 112.77 No shares, position value about 33.83 XP, unrealized loss 1.12 XP, about 3.22%. These are all points positions; unrealized profit or loss at the time of the screenshot does not represent the final result. Why choose Yes for Tesla? The company has already announced third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 vehicles and energy storage deployment of 13.7 GWh. I lean toward Yes mainly to see if the automotive business deliveries can translate into profit, plus whether the energy storage business can contribute incremental gains. But delivery volume alone does not guarantee profits will exceed expectations. The real focus is on average selling price per vehicle, automotive gross margin, expenses, and cash flow. If bigger discounts are used to boost sales, revenue may look good but profits may not. So the logic of this position is: optimistic about Tesla delivering better profitability than the market fears, but not relying on Robotaxi or AI stories to directly replace this quarter's financial data. Tesla is scheduled to release earnings after market close on October 21 US time, which is early morning October 22 Beijing time. Why choose No for Netflix? I'm more concerned about how much it can exceed expectations. The company previously guided Q3 revenue at $12.86 billion, up about 11.7% year-over-year, with an operating margin guidance of 33.2%. Growth and margin improvement are already priced in. Advertising, price increases, and subscriber growth support this, but content costs, ad realization speed, and how much profit remains from this growth depend on actual results. So I use a small position to choose No, expressing caution about "exceeding expectations," not meaning Netflix's business is necessarily worse, nor that I'm shorting its stock. If ad monetization and profit performance are significantly better than expected, this judgment could be wrong. Netflix is scheduled to release earnings at about 4:01 AM Beijing time on October 21, one day earlier than Tesla. One more thing to be clear about: beating earnings expectations does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise; buying No does not mean betting the stock price will fall. Before placing orders, check the event details: which metrics (EPS, revenue, or others) are used for settlement, which expected values and data sources. The Yes 76¢ and No 31¢ in the screenshot are market quotes at the time, not official win probabilities. This is also why I like OKX's gameplay: first earn XP, then turn judgments into positions, and finally review results. If right, you can compete for leaderboard rewards; if wrong, you can understand whether the error was in data, expectations, or entry price. Predictions can be wrong, but logic must be clearly written in advance. This earnings season, would you rather choose Tesla Yes or Netflix No? @okxchinese @misaENFP #OKXProphet #OKXExpert #EarningsSeason #TradeTradFiOnOKX The above is my personal participation record and judgment, not investment advice; event qualifications, tasks, and settlement rules are subject to the page.

Our Prophet S3 is officially here! Misa is tapping the blackboard, let's highlight the key points together. Many people don't have the habit of reading the manual, so they can't play well. Spend a little time to finish reading this article, and you'll get twice the result with half the effort~ 🏆 Total prize pool $250,000 📅 Event lasts until November 15th 00:00 First, let's talk about what's slightly different this time compared to before: This time, no manual registration is needed; eligible users will be automatically enrolled, and Welcome XP will be credited automatically. At the same time, we've added an independent weekly leaderboard for earnings season and ExchangeOS on-chain spot and perpetual experience tasks. GW2 and GW3 will also distinguish between PnL leaderboard and PnL% leaderboard, so this time it's not just about who has more XP, but more importantly how to use XP well to generate positive returns. 🌟 How to participate this season? Open the latest OKX App and go to Planet - Outcomes Eligible new users will receive 200 XP, and existing users will get random Welcome XP. It may take some time to arrive; just check the XP icon at the top right or the Earn XP page~ XP is free event points, no real money investment is required, and it cannot be purchased, transferred, or withdrawn. After the season ends, it will be handled uniformly according to the rules. 🌟 How are rewards distributed? There are several sets of leaderboards this season, calculated and rewarded separately: Season main leaderboard: Top 5,000 by PnL, prize pool $60,000 GW1: Top 5,000 by PnL, prize pool $30,000 GW2: Top 3,000 by PnL and top 100 by PnL%, prize pool $30,000 GW3: Top 3,000 by PnL and top 100 by PnL%, prize pool $30,000 Earnings season W1–W4: Weekly independent PnL leaderboard, top 3,000 each week, weekly prize pool $25,000 GW1 runs from October 15th 10:00 to October 22nd 10:00; GW2 and GW3 switch every Thursday at 10:00. Note: XP earned from tasks is your ammunition, but the leaderboard core looks at trading PnL. External inflows like task XP and referral XP will be deducted when calculating PnL. Simply put, having more XP does not guarantee a high ranking; positive returns are still required. PnL not greater than 0 cannot earn corresponding leaderboard rewards. 🌟 What are we playing this week? 1. Will Tesla's earnings this quarter exceed expectations? Expected settlement: October 22nd 04:05 Earnings date, fiscal quarter, and consensus data will be verified again before launch according to company IR. 2. Midterm elections: Which party will control the House of Representatives? Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Settlement time may be delayed if official certification is used. 3. Midterm elections: Which party will control the Senate? Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Control in case of a tie and independent senators' caucus affiliation will be judged according to final market rules. 4. Midterm elections: Control combination of both chambers Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Including Republican sweep, Democratic sweep, Republican control of House and Democratic control of Senate, and the opposite combination. 5. Will Netflix's earnings this quarter exceed expectations? Expected settlement: October 21st 04:05 6. How many seats will Republicans win in the House? Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Settlement may be delayed awaiting official certification. 7. How many seats will Republicans win in the Senate? Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Settlement may be delayed if runoffs or caucus affiliations are not confirmed. 8. Brazil presidential election: Who will win? Expected determination: October 26th 10:00 Based on the second-round election results on October 25th. 9. China's GDP: What is the year-on-year growth range for Q3? Expected settlement: October 19th 10:00 🌟 How to earn more XP? One-time tasks: New user Welcome XP: 200 XP Eligible new user first deposit: 200 XP Complete eligible first trade: 200 XP Invite valid new users: 300 XP each, up to 5 counted this season 🌟 Daily tasks: Accumulate at least 1 minute reading on Planet; remember to scroll the page, no slacking! Complete follow, like, or share Publish posts with at least 50 words, include position cards, and pass review If XP is below 100 and account assets reach 100 USDT equivalent, try to claim daily Refuel random XP Complete ExchangeOS daily spot or perpetual tasks and try to maintain 3, 5, or 7 consecutive days without interruption Earnings season also has separate popular topic posting tasks. Posts need to include earnings season topics, corresponding spot or contract position cards, and pass review. Up to 30 extra XP can be earned daily. 🤩 Misa's XP tips 1. Open the Earn XP page daily first to see the tasks for the day. Tasks reset at 00:00 daily; progress does not carry over. 2. Reading tasks require scrolling content to count as valid, not just opening the page for a minute. 3. When posting, try to meet two conditions at once: at least 50 words and include position cards, plus earnings season designated topics and corresponding position cards. If both ordinary position posting and earnings season popular topic requirements are met, rewards for both tasks can be granted. 4. Orbit ordinary daily tasks and earnings season posting tasks can stack; when eligible, up to 60 XP can be earned daily, but actual rewards are random and subject to weekly limits on task cards. 5. Invitations must use the exclusive invitation link in the event. Ordinary invitation links may not be correctly attributed. Friends must complete registration, join the event, and meet eligible first deposit to count as valid invitations. 6. When XP is close to 100, don't forget to check Refuel. If asset and account conditions are met, you can replenish once daily. 7. Earnings season designated events have independent weekly leaderboards and may also enter corresponding regular Gameweek leaderboards. When rules allow, the same performance can participate in two leaderboards. 8. Don't do high-leverage operations just for task XP. Understand the rules first and decide whether to proceed; don't disrupt your rhythm for small tasks. 🤓 Final reminder: Multi-accounting, volume wash, self-trading, manipulating low liquidity markets, or using scripts for arbitrage are prohibited. Having little XP is not scary, but if your account is banned, you can't participate anymore~ OKX Planet Prophet S3, see you on Misa's leaderboard 🖤